The Edmonton Oilers have played games like last night many times, losing far more than they’ve won. Why did they win last night? Two generational talents made plays that resulted in late goals, and the Boston Bruins don’t have enough elite talents in their prime to slap back anymore. That’s the story, morning glory. It was a fascinating game, for many interesting and unusual reasons. Let’s get into it.
The Athletic article today is about this being the Oilers ultimate season in the Connor McDavid era. It includes some memories of the past, some possible deadline moves for a goalie and offloading a winger, and more. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 6-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 19-11-2, 40 points in 32 games
The Oilers are having the best time this month and could hit 10 wins with some luck and a massive effort versus the LAK after Christmas. We could be talking first place by mid-January if this team continues to find solutions and the Glimmer Twins continue to shine.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner had another fine game, his five-on-five save percentage since October 15 is .915 and that’s a solid number. I’m of the opinion the Oilers should stay the course with him, many Oilers fans feel differently. We might get an idea about how Stan Bowman feels at the deadline. It is possible the new general manager sees goaltending as an area that needs improvement at the deadline, and there will be some options for trade. Something to contemplate between now and the deadline. I would stick to Skinner, but Bowman has no ties to Edmonton’s current starter and I can see a deal in the next seven months, possibly sooner than later.
The defensive shuffle was wild last night, we saw everyone changing dance partners at times. I liked all of the shuffles, Kulak-Bouchard was fun and Ekholm-Emberson makes sense on several levels. Alas, it’s likely we see things return to normal for the game against the San Jose Sharks. Ekholm-Bouchard are an established pair, and the obvious top pairing if they get broken up (Nurse-Bouchard) spent exactly one second together last night. I feel Troy Stecher is going to go all Gary Lariviere (losing his job slowly) after Christmas.
The forwards story last night was mostly about the Glimmer Twins and I’ll give Zach Hyman all kinds of credit for overcoming a broken nose without losing an ounce of hockey dynamite on the ice. He is tearing the cover off the ball, now sits at 11 goals in 27 games, not long after looking like he’d lost the touch. What a player.
I was disappointed in the Henrique line, I thought that trio would buzz but Viktor Arvidsson looked rusty and that denver booted the trio to my eye. Some interesting looks and just misses, but the line didn’t rhyme. I’d like to see this group again when all are healthy.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (at five-on-five) averaged 2.38 takeaways per 60 minutes a year ago. He is at 0.84 this season. He still gets to lots of plays, but not as many as he used to and it’s a concern.
Jeff Skinner gave away the puck in a dangerous spot, late in the game and if he was a rookie he would be landing at Bakersfield Meadows Airport right about now. I remain convinced he can help, but not from the fourth line and the team has more trustworthy options. Jeff Skinner is in trouble as an Oilers player. He can make defensive plays, but consistency eludes him and he’s pretty old and expensive to be making errors like that one last night. I’m not sure how this is going to turn out. Maybe he’s the modern Petr Klima.
At noon today, the Lowdown hits and we’ll have plenty of Oilers talk and NHL chatter. Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk are scheduled to appear, and Declanations with Declan Krueger will feature one of his patented ‘top 5’ lists. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: Could 2024-25 be the ultimate Edmonton Oilers season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6005238/2024/12/20/edmonton-oilers-2024-25-ultimate-season/
After the crappy 1st period it was fantastic to claw back to OT and get 1 point. The OT win is like an extra piece of pie at the Xmas table!
Former Condor great, Noel Hoeffenmayer off to play in the Spengler (Sam Gagner too).
Nurse paired with Bouchard at practice
Ekholm with Emberson
Kulak Stetcher
i like this look. I wonder if anyone asked Nurse what he’s changed this year. I know the league page says he’s only 10 lbs lighter than Ekholm but I saw the game in St. Paul a week ago and he definitely doesn’t look like he’s 10 lbs lighter. He looks 25 lbs lighter.
I almost accidentally bumped into Ekholm at the beginning of the season on the street and he definitely did not look close to 225. He looked very lean.
One thing that drives me nuts about sports is how often then inflate heights and weights and they just rarely ever update or change. They are less stats, and mostly just promotional materials for people to look at and “ooh” and “ahh” and marvel at these “larger than life” athletes. I really wish they did an official height/weight measurements at the beginning, middle and end of the seasons. It would be interesting I think to monitor that kind of data and see if there is any kind of correlation to their on ice performance.
In person I have seen Hall, Eberle, Whitney, Hemsky, Stortini and Ekholm. I would say only Whitney and Stortini seemed to align with their height and weight. Everyone else seemed smaller than advertised.
I like these pairs too. Would be nice if the third pair could eat more minutes/if Emberson could eat some of Bouchard’s minutes.
Yes, let’s try to these pairings. The 3rd pairing is small though, maybe too small.
Agree, Nurse looks trimmer and lighter.
We will have to wait and see how Alec Regula fits into the scheme of things. He’s 6’4″ and 212. Or maybe now they need a 3RHD to play with Kulak.
Also, Kapanen not on the ice today for practice…..
Hopefully just maintenance
I’m all for it, per Tony B:
Any Oilers win which is the inversion of a Toronto Maple Leaf nightmare is fine by me.
Have a good feeling Draisaitl will 1000 points this year.
Exactly 2ppg for the rest of the year would do it.
LT: You take Petr Klima’s name out of your damn mouth! 😀 I’m kidding of course; Klima could be an adventure defensively. I’ve really not been able to watch as much as usual, but it’s weird that I’ve seen JSkin good more than bad…limited viewings this year though. I agree he’s in trouble, and I am wondering if they move him…I like the player, and I like that he wanted to showcase himself here; yet it’s never really worked. I really thought he’d find a home and go nuclear. Kind of a bummer, but there’s time for him to work his way out of the doghouse with a couple of strong games. But, not from line 4.
Stu’s days in Edmonton seem to be coming to an end eventually either way. If he doesn’t lead them to the cup, Bowman is shipping him out for his guy, if he does lead them to the cup he’ll be too expensive to retain lol
Before all the late game heroics, Kapanen was most noticeable in a good way to my eyes.
Perry looks like he’s skating in reverse without Ryan beside him.
Seemed to be a mish mash of bottom 6 forwards and defenders out there, was hard to get a read on anything.
Draisaitl should be getting major votes for all available hardware at seasons end just sensational.
Who’s guy is he getting and what’s your source on anything you just said regarding the goalie.
LT’s musings? Haven’t heard a thing about Stu from the org or Bob. They’ve been telegraphing 2RD all season.
Just commenting on the musings of most when it comes to goaltending.
Stu is great for the cap, but he isn’t the GM’s guy as of yet.
If Stu doesn’t back stop them to the cup, the crowd will be too loud to keep him.
If Stu does take them to the cup, his next contract will be too large to keep him.
Wasn’t aware any sort of sources were needed for such observations, it’s been the general talk.
Maybe Stu takes them to the cup and somehow Bowman finds the money to keep him.
J Skinner for Holloway!!
I am beginning to become concerned regarding some people’s perception. At the end of yesterdays thread, there was some discussion on Stuart Skinner, and I came across a comment that stated they would be happy if Skinner posted a .920 save percentage year in and year out. Its hard to argue that statement, and although I don’t want to point fingers or call anyone out, I hardly believe that is a realistic standard for Skinner.
Lets look at the list of goalies to finish with a .920 save percentage over the last few years:
This year there are 4 goalies with a save percentage over .920:
Lets look back at these four’s stats from last year (2023-24):
Stolarz and Helleybuck were the only two goalies to play at least 25 games and finish with a .920 save percentage. Stolarz played only 27 games.
I would be ecstatic if Skinner could consistently play year over year with a .920 save percentage, because that would mean Skinner would be in the top two goalies in the world.
That bar is set so high, it is like saying “I would be happy if Nuge could score 120 points year over year.” Obviously that would be fantastic, but there is only one player in the league to score 120 points every year over the last three years. That wouldn’t be the expectation for Nuge, and yet I get the sense that a lot of people expect our goalie to be the best in the league, and mask that standard as “league average”, when in fact its exceptional.
If Stu can be slightly above average, or even average, with this team that should be enough
Anything over .900 should be enough for this team to win way more than they lose imo
Stu is 39th league wide in SV% last year we were 1 tick above league average this year we’re 5 ticks below. We made it to game 7 in spite of average goaltending. I can’t find the last team to actually win a Cup with below average goaltending.
Yeah, I get that Stu’s pctg was low at the start of the year. He should bring it up over time and has been doing well lately, no?
Yes he’s starting to make some stops and will hopefully get to league average in the next 5-6 starts. The question is in a tight checking series say against Vegas how many weak sauce goals can we overcome.
Colorado Avalanche in 2022. Filtering out guys who’ve played less than 4 games you get the following:
Kuemper – 15th in GSAx/60 @ -0.284.
Francouz – 12th in GSAx/60 @ 0.088
Mike Smith was 10th with 0.131 GSAx/60.
1st: Oettinger with 1.410
2nd: Shesterkin with 0.945
3rd: Binnington with 0.930
To add to that, save percentage:
Kuemper was at 0.902 and Francouz was at 0.906.
The Av’s were the 1st team I thought had a low SV% when winning the cup but when I checked I have Kuemper at 921 in 57 games and Francouz at 916 in 16 games the team average was 916. I cannot find a Cup winner with a team average below league average.
Colorado
Fine you don’t like 920, do 915. Or 910. Or 905 even. Those are still numbers much much higher than current. Some goalies have down years like Gustafson last year but bounce right back. But we’re at a point that just asking for a goalie to provide league average goaltending means you hate somebody.
Through December 1 last season, his first 17 games, Stu Skinner had an .881 save percentage. By year end, he had a .905 save percentage, which was just above league average for starters and overall (.903). He got back to that point by playing with a .914 save percentage over the remaining 42 games of the season.
Like the Oilers, he has gotten off to a poor start both seasons. Fortunately, the slow start was overcome more quickly this season. He has already climbed back to somewhat below league average right now, (39th of 58 who have played 10 games). He was at .872 at the end of October, .887 by the end of November and now up to .893. As the season goes on each game has less impact on moving up the average.
Skinner was a part of the problem for both poor starts (his and the team’s each year), but not the only issue either time. And he was also a part of the solution last year and has been a part of the solution thus far this year.
Prospectosion!
It’s an OHL quintet to round out the pre-Xmas sched.
The House of Stone picked up a pair of helpers yesternight but still has only 3 goals in 14 GP.
Nicholl’s breakout season has him with 33 points in 32 GP, 2nd on the Knights. O’Reilly has 26 points in 30 GP.
Cap’n Clattenburg’s 3-point effort last time out gives him 17 (9+8) in 21 GP.
Day has been better lately, stopping 50 of 52 shots over his last two GP. He has a 3.04 GAA and 88.9 SV% so far this year.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Erskine time.
We don’t know what Bowman is truly thinking and it is correct that he has no specific ties to Skinner but, for me, I would be absolutely shocked if a move was made to try and improve on Skinner and doubt that its even been contemplated.
Bowman is well aware of this team’s cap structure, the decision to not match the offer sheets was solely cap structuring related.
I would think that Bowman very much understands the massive value that Skinner provides for $2.6MM this season and next.
Bowman knows that Skinner won 14 games in the playoffs, won 5 straight games facing elimination and gave up 2 goals in the next.
Any tinkering with goaltending now will upset cap issue and team chemistry for this years run. Not worth it and goalies are voodoo.
Maybe he’ll go the Elks route and not look to trade Ford, but up the back up game from Bethel Thompson to Fajardo. If there’s an issue, not a big change in quality in the most important position
I truly think Skinner can be a Stanley Cup winning goaltender and be a significant contributor in the win.
(This next comment isn’t directed at you, OP). Does anyone have a reasonable trade or means of acquisition for a goalie who is consistently better than Skinner? I haven’t done the deep dive, but who will be available by the trade deadline that would be a clear improvement? What team has a better goalie that they would be willing to move? What goalie is available that wouldn’t cost us the small draft and prospect capital the Oilers have or other significant pieces from the roster? What RFA or UFA will be available to sign that will be better than Skinner and won’t cost the Oilers any of the depth they have built up?
This is the list of intelligent questions to consistently ask anyone who is adamant that the Oilers need to trade for a goaltender.
There are 5-6 goalies in the league that a team could bet on that would be almost a guarantee an upgrade ability wise without taking salary into account.
Teams with great goalie develop them in their own system. Ullmark and Markstrom being the only exceptions in my opinion and neither of them are as elite as the couple of other goalies that are more consistent.
Vasilevsky because they moved Sergachev and I have no earthly idea why.
Haha. So, Vasilevsky and 50% salary retention to Anaheim for Mintyukov and Gibson at $1.4 million retention (to be even value on Vasilevsky’s “new” salary). Anaheim then flips Vasilevsky (with 50% retention) and Mintyukov to the Oilers for J Skinner, Stecher, and Pickard (sorry). Oilers send Josh Brown to TB to round out the deal.
Easy answer. There is no other available option that fits the cap and is actually better than Skinner. None. Zero. Although I’ve recently heard in the echo chamber IWedgwood and Blackwood are amazing and no longer garbage.
I do believe Bowman is in the middle on goaltending. How do you replace Pickard when he’s been the perfect back-up. I think the goaltending change will come in the offseason involving a Skinner trade if he can’t get it done this spring.
Agreed and, also, Stuart Skinner out-lasted Jeremy Swayman.
The first goal on Swayman was horrid, the 2nd not great and the 3rd, a good shot point blank but not “unsaveable”.
Bruins got out-goalied last night, right?
Stu Skinner’s last 5 games:
BEAT Jordan Binnington 4-2
BEAT Andrei Vasilevskiy 2-1
BEAT Aidan Hill 6-3
LOST to Sergei Bobrovsky 6-5
BEAT Jeremy Swayman 3-2
one of these games was not like the others. Of course Oilers Twitter made more shrieks of outrage over the one than words of praise about the other four combined.
some pretty elite goalies listed there. Is Stu Skinner one of them?
I would only call Vas elite and that may not be the case anymore. Good, yes
But you can’t just take a good streak. in science I call that narrowing your sample size to get the result you wanted to get.
He needs to continue playing like this the rest of the year to once again dig himself out of the hole he created.
But was you reasonable expectation in the offseason for Skinner 890 save percentage. Guessing it wasn’t
His bad streaks make his good streaks even better.
All goalies go through good streaks and bad streaks. You can’t just count one goalies good streaks and compare them to other goalies good and bad streaks
You keep mentioning the .890. First it is .893. Not a huge difference, but at .893 that puts him above Bobrovsky at .892, last year’s Stanley Cup winning $10 million per season goalie. He is also ahead of other notables like Swayman ,Varlamov (career .916 tender) and Demko (though only 4 games off injury).
Team Canada’s top 2 goalies for the 4 nations cup aren’t ahead by much either: Binnington (.896) and Hill (.901) and these 2 also backstopped their teams to Stanley Cups.
Another factor to consider is that all goaltending in down this year with a league average of only .900 save percent down from .903. Not sure if shooters are more accurate this year, goalies worse or system changes. Skinner would be at league average if he had stopped just 4 shots that ended up as goals.
Skinner would be the first to say he got off to a poor start this season. And yes there are some better and/more consistent goalies right now in the NHL, but almost all starting goalies (and some backups) make more that Skinner and almost all of them are older (Oettinger and Swayman are the same age, Wolf is just over 2 years younger).
And as for digging out of the hole the rest of the year, the only thing that matters is wins and losses. After losing 3 of his first 4 and going 2-6-1 in his first 9, he has gone 9-3-1 in the next 13 to get his record to 12-8-2. Not quite out of the hole yet, but very close.
If he can win 4 out of every 5 there will be no complaints
I was worried the Bruins would shut them out. Then Hyman scored a goal that I’m positive Swayman would want back, so the saying goes. Nice to see it doesn’t only happen to Skinner. But after that I knew the outcome would never be in doubt. Hooray for our side.
I wish I could go back in time to when I was annoyed that Chiarelli signed Draisaitl for Malkin money, cause I thought that Draisaitl was no Malkin, and slap myself in the face 751 times.
I’m envisioning the lineup to slap the hysteric woman in Airplane!
I think this blog handled it pretty well, honestly. Here’s the original link, make sure to click “oldest” comments before reading what everyone had to say. I think people who post here showed a nice range of opinions and didn’t come close to the outrage expressed elsewhere.
https://lowetide.ca/2017/08/16/oilers-sign-leon-draisaitl/
It was literally the one thing Chiarelli did that was good. I don’t count picking Connor #1.
I liked the Klefbom contract by Chiarelli. 7 x $4,167,000 was great until Klefbom’s shoulder exploded.
It absolutely sucks to see Sekera that far down the LD lineup… and thanks for pumping godot’s ego…
Godot is right about many things.
Completely agree… don’t believe I’ve ever down voted a comment of his (which is extremely rare to begin with)… I just pick on him on occasion like you would for people who are able to do long division in their heads
Similar to a broken clock.
I do recall enjoying all of the Draisaitl contract discussions and opinions. Still wonder if a more savvy GM could have gotten Draisaitl for a bit cheaper but, it all worked out for the Oilers and have gotten tremendous value out of him.
Drai has reached 900 points in less games than Malkin!
In all honesty I was pissed; I thought Schiefle was better. Was I ever wrong
I think JSkinner is going to get traded (I know he has a NMC).
The coaching staff cannot find a use for him and moving him frees up a significant amount of cap space.
I know he has NMC, but for an example, Skinner for Fredric is the type of deal to be made that would help both teams. Oil need a physical type bottom 6 with above average speed. Bottom 6 players of this type are more readily available then scorers.
I am sure Bowman has figured this out and my hope is bottom 6 or dman for Skinner.
Boston must feel like they were robbed last night.
Boo hoo bloody who hoo hoo.
From now on I have decided to stop blaming goalie Skinner for anything in particular. The team has got to tighten up anytime he needs them to. He’s not a bad goalie – the Oilers play a let’s leave the goalie out to dry style hockey.
The organization should consider a new goalie coach.
Do they play that style?
By most models (includig those that measure slot shots and the such), they were a plus defensive team last year after the coaching change and this year.
It’s concerning that any line with Connor on it doesn’t win all of the stats, handily. A thing that bugs me is any conversation regarding Connor that doesn’t begin with the premise that he is head and shoulders above the other players. His numbers shouldn’t look like good normal or worse
Most lines can’t stay together forever. That Nuge Connor Zach normally do well isn’t the test, it’s are they getting as much as Connor has to give by finding him the best match in wingers?
That’s what Sather did, kept looking, even though Gretzky was already blowing things up, because he could see there was more. He understood that the primary job was maximize his massive advantage, and build down from there
Maybe that’s not a winger but a centre, a solid 2C, so Connor can play with Leon primarily, and when not they get super deep at C. It’s kind of like how Hervey won’t pay receivers, he puts money into the lines and now a strong QB 2. Maybe move an expensive winger for better centre depth, because with that the wingers do better anyway, but rarely vice versa
I would love to hear Sather’s take on the team roster and org
But, happy for the win. Ekholm is a beauty, I hope he’s feeling good and will get back to his top game
McDavid with Nuge and Hyman: 171 minutes, 61 percent goal share five-on-five. I’d say that’s electric.
McDavid with Skinner is 1-7 goals in 49 minutes. I would give it another try, but you can see why the coaching staff is content to run RNH and Hyman..
Yes I don’t mean the solutions are on the team. I just think there is more
Maybe there isn’t, but we all go by our hockey watching experience and thoughts. For me an example of it is despite Hyman’s big goal scoring season, the line only scored three extra goals. I think that it is possible for Connor’s line to increase production, I think he has another level, but it’s not one that he can reach with his own efforts
One way is Leon, but there may be other players that would help. That are a better fit for what would help Connor. The hard part is deciding who they might be and getting them, if Bowman evens thinks along those lines
The numbers from last night are pretty bad, that shouldn’t happen which got me thinking about this again
Zach scored the first goal; Connor scored the tying goal & Nuge set up the winner in OT. What more could you ask for.
And of course, Leon assisted on all three.
Your expectations are unrealistic if you think any particular line should NEVER have an off-night.
And even being off, the 3 of them combined for 2 goals, 2 assists and +5.
It was a weird game last night.
Oilers came out really flat and had a bad 1st
They pretty much dominated the 2nd
The 3rd was really Boston blocking up the blue to blue and pushing the Oilers back except for a few chances. Once McD scored late it was anyone’s game
The Oilers really were the better team in OT controlling the play except for the one short Boston had.
Draisaitl is just on another level than pretty much everybody in the Show of late.
Great comeback win.
To my eye, that was a terrible game. We carried on with some truly baffling decisions with the puck (icing under no pressure, turning back into trouble areas, the hard pass straight up the gut repeatedly without it working once). We also kept hitting passes straight at Bruins. Despite that, we had a good second period, the captain did what only he can do, and Drai, utterly bagged and trying to change went found the bench door locked and the puck on his stick in OT.
It was the best of games. It was the blurst of games. We’ll take it.
There’s the Lemieux fake shot/wave pass to Kariya in the Olympics and the Draisaitl fake line change… elite brains
Definitely a weird stretch in the 2nd period where the Oilers were the first hockey team I’ve ever seen try to play long through balls over the top.
LT – what error are we discussing with reference to Skinner?
The tape showed that the misplaced blame on the 2nd Bruins goal was just that…something else?
We’ve all seen Oilers coaches who have no clue how to use a guy before. What should be different now is the org is big and organized enough that someone can show the coach clip after clip of what needs to be done. Players like Skinner are actually among the easiest to use properly – not the hardest.
He made a beautiful pass to the Bruins in the our zone, tape to tape. It did not turn into a GA but damn close
To David Pastrnak in the slot
I’d like to see him get a shot with 97 or 29, but I also would say he’s been dynamic. He hasn’t generated much, not sure he’s the scoring winger he used to be.
I think the coaches are showing J Skinner clip after clip of what needs to be done. It’s hard teaching an old dog new tricks.
J Skinner also pulled the chute on the second goal vs, hauling ass the get back
Don’t believe I’ve ever spoken a negative word about the Nuge in my life and not about to start now. Poor guy has never broke the 50 point mark, but man that takeaway stat sure tells a story. Let’s see how this plays out after the season split like LT does with the youngsters in Bakersfield shall we. I suspect we’ll see some improvement to career norms.
The ‘Oilers Zone’ is sure playing a good game, but having tried to duplicate the Boston template, that ‘Bruins Zone’ is something to behold. They’ve mastered it, and it’s beautiful to watch.
To be fair, he is still only 23.
Nuge had a really bad start, but has played a lot better of late
Sorry I have to correct you, but Nuge has broken 50 points in 8 out of his 14 seasons.
True, but he still has never got 50pts in a season. You may want to check the Lowetide archives.
It’s an in joke, up there with Garnyay also being in picture, book it, the rights to O’Mark for Weber. But your mileage may vary.
Oh, it’s a truth about untruths. Funny.
I believe, and a lot of IPA has flowed under the bridge, it stemmed from Kelly Hrudey claiming that Nuge was a third line center that never scored 50pts in a season. He’d already had a couple under his belt. This was on HNIC. But the Mandela effect could be in operation.
…& a third round pick to Calgary. Oh wait, that really happened! (once)
Hogwash good sir!
Whoosh
I’m still scratching my head.
Wont be a popular opinion, But maybe next year Nuge is more suited for a 3C assignment.
If Jeff Skinner can score the triple overtime winner in the SCF all will be forgotten and forgiven.
Even just wearing the JOFA helmet would go a long way in my books.
Lmao
He had a terrible giveaway last night. He seems to be really fighting the game right now, gripping the stick to hard.