The Edmonton Oilers enter today’s game versus the San Jose Sharks with a record of 19-8-2 in the last 29 games. That’s some electric stuff, even as the Pacific Division is going super nova these days. The team is settling in across all areas and has a chance to drive up the Pacific coast highway before New Year’s Day. So, everybody’s happy, right? Right?
Is the Stan Bowman-Kris Knoblauch-Paul Coffey power trio the right combination to put these Oilers over the top? The Athletic article today tackles the subject and it is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 6-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 19-11-2, 40 points in 32 games
Including the 1-0 loss to Vegas at the start of this month, Stuart Skinner’s .927 save percentage has been a big part of the team’s success. These are important games for Skinner, as he (hopefully) gains the confidence of general manager Stan Bowman.
Coach Kris Knoblauch opened the door to the discussion in November, saying “his game isn’t where it was last year. I thought he was one of the top goalies in the league. If he had a bad game, he’d bounce back the next night. We need to be more predictable in front of him so he knows where the shots are coming from.”
Since that game, Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage is .934 in eight games. Your mileage may vary, but I think that qualifies as a bounce back. My opinion, or even your opinion, isn’t as important as Stan Bowman’s opinion in this case. I’m on record and maintain that a winning organization never throws out an investment like Skinner (many starts, including a pile in the postseason) but there is a path to compromise involving the acquisition of a third goalie like Jonathan Quick.
Skinner is my guy. I suspect I’m in the minority but that’s okay. He’s a player worth defending.
The new pairings
At practice yesterday, the coaching staff shuffled the pairings and we are likely to see the new deployment today. In yesterday’s post, I wrote “alas, it’s likely we see things return to normal for the game against the San Jose Sharks. Ekholm-Bouchard are an established pair, and the obvious top pairing if they get broken up (Nurse-Bouchard) spent exactly one second together last night.”
As it turns out, Nurse-Bouchard was a feature pairing at practice, and history suggests that’s a reasonable path. Here are the regular-season totals with and without over the past three seasons combined:
- Nurse-Bouchard: 52 pct goal share, 62 pct expected goal share in 233 minutes
- Bouchard w/o Nurse: 58 pct goal share, 60 expected goal share in 3061 minutes
- Nurse w/o Bouchard: 52 pct goal share, 52 expected goal share in 3235 minutes
I don’t think this pairing lasts a long time, for me the reason it is happening has to do with Bouchard’s recent injury and Ekholm’s recent (very slight) wobble. Consider it a ‘let’s move the furniture around’ moment where the idea is a fresh approach to a routine part of life. It isn’t a ‘let’s move the wall unit’ moment (in the 1950-1980’s wall units weighed 4000 pounds and actual death was a possible outcome from such a decision). I do think the duo will be solid.
An added benefit from the shuffle is Ekholm being pairing with Ty Emberson. Music! The idea that Ekholm can help Emberson along his way is a brilliant one, and is terrific team building for however long it lasts. I do believe Bouchard has benefited from his time with Ekholm and am certain Emberson will, too. I am pleased for this development. In 15 minutes together so far five-on-five, they own a 75 percent expected goal share.
The third pairing will feature Brett Kulak and Troy Stecher. They have played just 60 minutes together five-on-five, 1-1 goals and an expected goal share of 45 percent. I’m a little worried about Stecher right now, he is 50 percent goals five-on-five but owns a 45 percent expected goal share (35 percent expected goal share since December 1). He has been running luck (6-3 goals in December) but I’m a bit worried about the results otherwise. Ty Emberson is 4-5 goals and 50 percent expected goals in December. I would like both of these men to be on the playoff roster, not certain that will happen.
Expect a win today, if it doesn’t happen then something went terribly wrong. These Oilers are a war wagon (look it up, you’ll chuckle) right now.
A fine evening
Karen and I attended the AHP Awards last night, and had a wonderful time. I wore my Nirvana hoodie and ended up in Nerdvana talking pitch shape, velo and meeting Eric Sabrowski (who is a cool guy). My thanks to Taylor Burns, Connor Burns, Ethan Elias (who knew who Rusty Staub was!) and Jacob Honke for making us feel so welcome. They are a quality group.
Who needs last year’s Ralph Lavoie, the cross-seamer one-timed in by Savoie on the PP for a 2-0 lead.
Carrick finds Dineen at the point, allowed to walk in to the slot with no pressure and he goes roof down for a 1-0 lead.
Savoie and Caggiula with great work below the goal line to win the puck – I think Caggiula will get the 2nd assist.
Let’s not forget to mention Bouch’s one on one D on Celebrini to get the play started the other way.
Celebrini tried a stupid rookie move and basically did all the turnover by himself on that one
@BruceMcCurdy
Oilers set what is surely a new franchise low with 4 hits today. 2 by Nurse, 1 each by Bouchard & Kulak.
12-way tie among forwards with 0 hits each.
Tough to throw hits when you have that pick for 50 minutes straight.
True fact. I guess the players decided it was better to keep possession and shoot instead of handing off the puck to the other team so that they could rack up a hit stat.
It’s not even a criticism, just an observation.oilers have deprioritized hits tosuch a degree that I’m sure it’s a systemic thing. Coach values positioningmore than he does finishing checks,
today was a particularly extreme example.
Cheers Bruce. I never saw your tally as a knock on the team and I agree with your assessment. Long season and I think this team and many other skilled teams see making hitting as a priority often means taking yourself out of the play. The season is 82 games.
Last season was 107 games,
Last summer was 107 *days*.
& that’s counting all the way from SCF G7 to the start of the regular season.
Wins in the League in the last ten:
#1. Oilers
Not sure I’ve seen a game where the Oilers win in OT and the winning goal feels anticlimactic like this.
I’m typically a one screen at a time kinda guy. But I had Fury Usyk 2 on the big screen and the Oilers playing on a laptop in front of me. And I just had a really good time. What a fight! Usyk is incredible. Just an absolute war.
And what a pass by Corey Perry!! A lot of IQ and nerve goes into making a pass like that, from that spot, down by 1, with 17 seconds to go.
Good afternoon!
How Perry plays from the circles down is exactly what needs to be added to most of the forward groups games. Not sometimes, most of the time. He Connoer and Ekholm where thinking, and created the space for Ek’s shot, they timed it perfectly, and Ek did not miss
That was cool. I liked it when the Oilers won.
Dostal/Askarov keep this up, there won’t be any freebies on California road trips
Wow speechless…. That was quite the goaltending display. ALMOST feel sorry for him. Oilers with an offensive onslaught for two periods. Hats off to Pickard to make some big saves to not let that third goal go in. If Sharks got a third one, game likely over. You have to love how the team pushed hard to the last few seconds to get tying goal. Wow!
How can DeBrusk say the Sharks have to feel they had the game stolen from them?
Well heartbreaker for the Sharks but their tender kept them in a game they should have lost by 3 or 4.
What cliche would you prefer him to use to contradict what everyone else saw? My wife and I laughed at that too.
Oilers had the greater shot mentality though
I suspect he meant that as the clock was ticking down they were feeling like they had the game before the Oilers clicked.
The keeper is part of the team and I’m guessing SJ as a team believed, since they were winning with 20 seconds to go, that they had played well enough to win.
I don’t think deserving it or not has any bearing on feeling it was stolen at the last second.
Probably because San Jose was within 18 seconds of having Askorov steal them a game. Within 36 seconds of game time the Oilers stole it back going from down 2-1 to winning 3-2.
Askarov’s photo from the 3 Stars looks like Borat.
Just take the win and we’re outta here.
in·es·cap·a·ble
/ˌinəˈskāpəb(ə)l/
adjective
adjective: inescapable
-unable to be avoided or denied
-“political reform was inescapable”
So, Drai CAN hit the net.
NEVER IN D(OT)UBT!! 🚨🚨🚨
Also – sure would like Askarov and Walman.
I’m still astonished that Steve Yzerman, the greatest GM of all time, traded Walman away for a second round pick.
Trotz is going to regret trading Askarov away for magic beans, instead of cashing in on Saros last year or this summer.
VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT!
…AGAIN!!!
If the Boston win was ugly, that was obscene…but another 2 on the board.
Disagree completely.
Boston outplayed the Oilers, Oilers won due to better goaltending.
After the first 10 minutes, this game was ALL Oilers (even the first period was mostly all Oilers on scoring chances).
Oiler deserved this win for sure.
Can we steal another in OT and be a 3-2 team in a 3-2 league again? Stay tuned!
Ask and you shall receive!
Askarov and you shall receive! 🤣
Great pass by Perry….
Don’t think I’ve ever seen Leon miss 2 of those in one period before.
A chorus of “bench Hopkins” for that pass that almost gifted SJ a win?
No?
Didnt think so.
I was yelling.
Lord Ekholm, savior of the week.
A one timer finally.
Clutch player of the week as well!
Holy Hell – FINALLY!
So, now Drai and Hyman have both missed wide open nets……
What a terrible period so far. Gross.
Haven’t seen a single one timer. They’ve got to stop dusting the puck off.
I’ve taken to watching the game with the volume off, and having Ennio Morricone playing in the background.
So Ennio a better play by play guy than Jack?????
Yes. If I had been listening and not watching the screen I would not have known the Sharks had the puck, AND SCORED, the second goal until 5 seconds after it happened. They were busy one upping each other with their prepared talking points while the Sharks went down the ice with the puck and scored. Never a game related comment until after it was in the net.
Keep up the pressure and we’ll get a goal
My goodness….. puck doing everything but going in the net right now.
Cal excellent on 2 on 1
We are getting reverse Ben Scrivens’ed
Jeff Skinner is awfully determined to not win a single hustle battle
Very poor offensive zone decisions by Bouch there….
The Sharks D has been good at tying up sticks in front of the goalie.
They’ve found a goaltender.
that too!
Keep pushing…it’ll come
Wow another Russian goalie making his mark. We need a dirty goal to tie this up.
Mike Grier has the Sharks pointed in a good direction.
The Askarov trade looks like an inspired one.
Tough to see the Sharks surviving like this much longer – definitely not through a full other period of the Oilers can continue….
Oilers pressing a bit, as if they think “we should be beating this guys” easily. Need to be patient and work for chances.
Would someone in the Oilers organization please tell JJ that it is ok to not win every bet. But bench Skinner asap. Better yet Robidas island.
Oilers likely win this game, but it sure would be nice if they didn’t have to do everything the hard way!
Coach set the tone for the awful period by starting his no rhyme or rhythm third line.
Kulak/Skinner mistakes on SJ goal 1 and Picks weak on SJ goal 2. McD flying out there. Oilers should be able to take this.
Bouchard was primarily at fault on the first goal against. He played neither the man, nor the puck behind the net. He decided to do nothing.
This is the most dishonest take I’ve ever read given what Kulak did on that goal – talk about narratives – not even trying to hide bias now.
Nuge with some great chances to score that period but comes up empty.
Bouchard has a serious case of the Yakupov bees
He has not been good for the last few games at all
Maybe someone should tell Louie that an inadvertent penalty is still a penalty
Unless it’s Eichel inadvertently crosschecking a guy head first into the boards.
I think that was a shot off the pads pass by McDavid – Nuge should have two goals…
Did Rico lose a toof?
yes and of course no butt ending call on shark
But it was inadvertent, so Louie is cool with that
No Selke for Leon!