Northern Lights dancing at Turtle Lake, SK. Photo by Todd Kirkpatrick
The Edmonton Oilers woke up today in first place in the Pacific Division (by points pct) and it looks like they’ll be strong enough to avoid the potential hilarity developing in the chase for the final wild card spot.
The Seattle Kraken are in town tonight. After a brazen opening act in the first two seasons as a pure expansion team, the Kraken have settled in as an also-ran.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have a look of a club that can hammer opponents on their best days and get the decision even when all pistons aren’t firing under the hood.
The Athletic article today is about the scoring spike (and recent outscoring) by the Oilers forwards. There’s also reason for more progress in the second half of the year. Article is here.
The team should benefit from Connor McDavid’s return to the ice, expect some brilliance from a man who can be counted on for supreme performance.
A year ago, he posted 3.50 pts-60 at five-on-five, that number is currently 2.75 pts-60. Both are ridiculous totals; he ranked No. 1 in 2023-24 and is No. 7 this season. McDavid is fire.
You can also expect more improvement in his five-on-five outscoring, something I wrote about in today’s The Athletic article.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 9-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 31-15-3, 65 points in 49 games
The Oilers have reached my projected point total with two games to spare. Both of these games are winnable, but hockey has a way of making things difficult. This Oilers team is 31-12-3 since the 0-3-0 start and betting against them is a bad idea. A 10-win month is an exceptional accomplishment, and 50 wins this season appears attainable. The Oilers have won 50 times in a season four times previously, winning the Stanley Cup twice in those years.
Today I’m wondering about this roster and the deadline. Darnell Nurse is 55 percent at five-on-five this season. That includes 56 percent with Troy Stecher (in 343 minutes) and 48 percent (in 295 minutes) with Brett Kulak. The 48 percent is 12-13 goals, and the expected goals for that pairing is 56 percent. Do the Oilers need a second-pairing RH option? I mean, I’m not sure John Klingberg is going to be an upgrade. Plus Kulak-Ty Emberson are 50 percent (56 percent expected) goal share at five-on-five this season.
In nine NHL games this season, Noah Philp’s on-ice goal percentage at five-on-five is 5-3, 63 percent. That’s in 78 minutes, with a 56 percent expected goal share. He has a 1.54 pts-60 (this is in just 78 minutes, though) and I think he’s finding his way. Will it be enough? Don’t know.
So what will the Oilers acquire at the deadline? A defenseman, a center and a rugged forward? Or, as many Oilers fans tell me weekly, will it be a goaltender? We wait.
The Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie from ESPN and Betalytics will talk to us about the importance of rest for the Glimmer Twins this season, and about the deadline tweaks that are required for the Oilers. We’ll chat Super Bowl and MLB, plus Declan Krueger’s Mamma MMA hits at 1:40. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
As much a I’d like to see Bouchard play for Team Canada at the 4 Nations, I think the management will see the same sloppy defensive play and bad turnovers that he displayed tonight and for the past few weeks.
As a Team Canada fan, I believe Bouchard is the best remaining offensive defenceman available. But it’s more likely they add a reliable 2 way defenceman like Weegar or Drew Doughty if can recover from his injury in time. With Makar already on the team as the PP1 QB, the only real rationale to add Bouchard is if Makar goes down with a injury.
As an Oiler fan, I selfishly want Bouchard to sit, rest, recover & reset and help the Oilers to the Cup in June rather than a glorified exhibition tournament in Feb.
It’d be nice to win that glorified tourney but to me, the Stanley Cup comes before all else.
Pickard’s performance tonight raises his save percentage to .901. So with Papa Skinner at .902, through 50 games of the season both have now gotten to the league average of .901. And both the eye test and the data (xGA 3.15 vs 2.0 GA) would suggest Pickard played very well in this game to get there. Onward and upward!
Janmark/Nuge/Brown got absolutely caved all night long – I encourage you all to not take a look at the numbers.
And yet they contributed on the scoresheet.
It was an old school run and gun type of game. That kind of third line is going to show better in a grind it out playoff style defensive battle .
Oilers are 3rd in the NHL. Very nice. I like.
Not to critique a win, always happy to celebrate those
Just a general comment. As amazing as McDavid always is, his lines just aren’t clicking like last year’s line, despite a steady diet of Hyman, RNH, and Draisaitl. I don’t know if D units are being better coached to handle them (I noticed a lot of boxing out of Hyman tonight to take away that option), or if it’s that the dynamic duo is overthinking open shots and passing to no one, or RNH/Hyman just not with the scoring touch they had last season. Are clean zone entries down (seeing a ton of cycling)? Or all of the above?
Would be ideal to find chemistry and more productive play on the top line, especially when it’s locked and loaded.
On the positive side, they are constantly winning games despite not putting it all together. Reminds me a bit of the Chiefs…
The Brad Gilbert…
They’re 2nd and 5th in the NHL in scoring.
Watch the Oilers circa 2013 and you’ll realize how different this team is.
Not the sloppiest game this season, but they just keep winning…would like to see them tighten up their own slot a bit and win a few more loose puck battles. End of the day, 2 pts puts them back in first. The game management was on full display tonight again. Pretty hard to believe that Seattle only made one infraction in a full 60 mins. Its a bit hard not to bring up in my mouth at least a little bit.
It was a fun game; got to let the boys have one of those from time to time. I like that they can win playing any team’s style now.
Emberson played 18:28 and made some solid plays.
Tied with Kulak.
Mazel Tov Stuuuu!
ENkholm!! 🚨
After all the close chances at the empty net missed over the last few games, THAT is the one that goes in – wild.
Tough shift for 51 there
Love his compete, but he always seems to be teetering on the edge of chaos
He’s looked a lil overmatched of late..
Great play at the line by Bouch – another defensive play leading a dangerous offensive rush.
Oilers need to get their foot back on the gas, can’t just sit back trying to play low event hockey for a full period, you win games when you have the puck
Does feel like they’re just running this one out. Almost there…
The Oilers level of precision is plummeting. Nurse, apart from the great pass earlier, really fighting it. He appears sick, as reported.
Seattle seems to have a lot of good ingredients, but it looks like either they’re a tad slow or they’re all taking an extra quarter second, overthinking their actions.
I hope they are able to get the ice tilted back the other way – I don’t want to be defending, defending, defending the last 8-9 minutes like the last few.
Leon with two very poor puck management passes – not good Leon.
Drai has to be due for a goal…..
Drai trying to force a lot of passes to McD
Another solid defensive play by Nurse to break a long cycle, make a short pass and get a clear.
Bouch with a great defensive play and then fires a 3 zone stretch pass right on the tape.
More of that.
It’s mind blowing that some pretty smart folks didn’t want Corey Perry on this team.
He’s the goods.
He’s been great but I think that opinion was valid at the time.
He was OK in the regular season last year (never near this impact) but he was a complete non-factor all playoffs long.
In game 4 of the Dallas series, Perry got an important assist on MacLeod’s goal that turned the momentum after Dallas, leading 2-1 in the series had jumped to an early 2-0 lead. He touched passed the outlet to Nurse, then took the drop as they crossed the into the zone, got a good shot on net, and MacLeod cleaned up the rebound. The Oilers scored the next 4 to win 5-2 and tie the series 2-2.
In game 5 of the final, Perry scored the game winner. The Oilers hung on for a 5-3 win with an EN. McDavid did most of the work, but Perry came off the bench and skated straight to the right of the net and deposited McDavid’s pass where Grandma keeps the cookies up over Bobrovsky.
Perry was not a complete non-factor in the playoffs. That was 2 very important plays in 2 of 16 wins.
Not me.
He’s a really smart hockey player. I argued that he has always had slow boots, but great hands and off the chart gamesmanship. I’m not surprised that he’s still got something in the tank. He’s a HOFer when he retires … those guys either have the desire to keep grinding away for a chance at glory or they don’t and then they retire.
Perry absolutely has that dog in him still.
Emberson has consistently gotten pucks lying in vulnerable areas in low crease or in crease out of there past bunch of games
Like polar opposite of when he started. Much more confident assertive.
I could stand for an insurance goal – extend the lead please.
Nice kill. Be nice to get a PP for the good guys….
If the announcers hadn’t said so I would have imagined it was even strength.
I really am not a fan of Arvidsson. Wonder why a coach chooses to key in on some players perceived errors while others get so much rope?!
Arvy was good for 10-12 games after coming back but he’s been awful for the last 2-3-4 now.
My son is having end-of-semester exams right now in high school. He says almost all the kids are ridiculously sick. He spent about an hour yesterday vomiting in my wife’s home office.
I wonder if this cold is ripping through the NHL as well. I’m guessing yes, and that’s probably the reason for all the slop in the game.
Me and my family all got the stomach flu over the weekend as well. Lots of vomiting all around. Lucky me I also had it coming out the other end. Worst I’ve ever had.
Perry was so all alone it looked like a shoot out attempt! 9 goals on the season and counting. Has been an important contributor this season at the age of 39!
He looked like Bure for a moment, minus the foot speed.
Somebody (don’t know who) once said love and hate are the same thing. I think Corey Perry is walking (in this case skating) proof… this guy was once hated, repeat hated, by Oilers’ fans, as the ultimate asshat… now, loved. What a presence he is out there, glad we got him.
Oh yea there was LOTS of hate in E town!
Better period that one. Pickard was outstanding and skill won the period.
Pickard channeling his inner Moog/Fuhr
So many chances to give the Oilers a PP but they won’t do it now. Classic BS refereeing
Gotta keep the game close
Pickard hanging in there but his rebound control leaves a lot to be desired. Oilers D doing a good job limiting second chances off rebounds
What a sloppy game. Its like eating pulled pork sandwiches. Sloppy but fun.
I think Nurse saved a goal getting a stick on that.
This season might be the best I’ve ever seen Darnell Nurse play. Poised at what a pass
Perry kissed a goal and I liked it.
Shout out to Nurse too. OP called it earlier today on his improved passing!
Hyman needs more cowbell.
The Worm turns.
Pickard stolid.
That spinning dish by Drai…!?!?
What a pass by Nurse, Darnell Nurse…..
The Draisaitl backhand to a streaking McDavid was another masterpiece as well
He is playing with so much more poise and patience this year. And passing!! Not previously a strength of his.
What a crazy sequence?!!!!
The worm has turned!
Holy Hell Hyman, that was worse than Drai in the first.
Thank you C. Perry!
Philp looking decent tonight.
Bouch seems a step off tonight and had a bad game against the Sabres. Seems even more suspect defensively than usual. Anyone think he might be nursing an undisclosed injury.
Lots of single events again tonight
Nah I think he’s just fighting the puck/having a rough patch. He seems fine physically and is skating fine, just holding the puck too long, flubbing some easy plays, etc.
Anyone else get nervous watching Arvidsson handle the puck? He seems to put himself in dangerous spots and mishandles often. Makes me nervous!
Ekholm having a heck of a period
Connor doing his best Rodman impression.
yes. shoot first…pass second. good work Connor!
Back in the saddle again!!