The Edmonton Oilers are a good team, a real contender for the Stanley Cup in June. Currently, the team isn’t playing at peak levels, but each night one or two fellows step up and win the day. On Saturday, it was Stuart Skinner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. On Monday night, Mattias Ekholm and Calvin Pickard stood out with top-drawer performances. Ironically, Mattias’ partner in crime (Evan Bouchard) won a 2-1 advantage in five-on-five goals (Ekholm was 1-1) despite being a bit of a tire fire. Oh, the randomness of life.
The Athletic article is about Edmonton’s five-on-five scoring and outscoring splits. This team and the coaching staff behind them have figured something out. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 10-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 32-15-3, 67 points in 50 games
The mercurial Oilers have turned into the consistently strong Edmonites this season. I think it has to do with making fewer mistakes and cutting down on baffling giveaways (hello, Connor Brown!). I’m so impressed with this team since the 0-3-0 start and even that beginning owed at least some of the happening to a slow decision-making process on the final roster. This is a helluva team, people.
THE NUMBERS
Connor McDavid scored in his first game back, and his line hammered the Kraken senseless. Between the Glimmer Twins and Zach Hyman, the five-on-five shots (16-7) suggested the trio earned more than the final results.
The second line was not strong. Getting a second line that can rattle and hum when Draisaitl is away is a noble goal for the coaching staff. I think gifting Adam Henrique the two best wingers available after Draisaitl-Hyman suggests that is the second line and we shouldn’t be fooled by the 20-second gap in time-on-ice.
On defense, to my eye Ekholm and Darnell Nurse were quality, Kulak and Emberson did well, and Bouchard plus Stecher had some wobble. I think Bouchard is fortunate that Team Canada will look past him for the 4-Nations. He can rest, relax, get away from the game for a time. He is not close to Maximus Bouchtagon at this time.
Calvin Pickard had a fine night. I like the goalie tandem. They own a .915 save percentage since October 15, and that’s No. 16 in the NHL. That’s value for money spent, and we’ll see if Stan Bowman can MacGyver an upgrade at the deadline. Damned dangerous business, though. If he makes a trade (there is zero evidence he’s looking that way), he better be right.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic is our feature guest on the Lowdown today, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. Daniel will join us at 1:20, I’ll ask about the Emberson contract, the deadline and when we might see John Klingberg in NHL action. Declan Krueger has “Hi my name is…..” a diabolical feature that is always solved by Donovan Paulson. We’ll chat NFL, MLB, NBA, but the primary is the Oil Drop. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Ovi 3 goals (2 empty net, 1 OT) in last 11 games, and only 1 assist in that span. More what I would expect from a 39 year old returning from injury. I guess we’ll see if he uses the rest from 4 Nations to pot 19 in the last 32 games, but the chase may continue into next season, which won’t start until he is 40.
The Oilers maintain 1st in the Pacific and 3rd Overall after tonight’s games. Vegas managed 1 point to equal the Oilers point total, but the Oiler have a game in hand. Vegas led 3-1 in the 2nd and 3-2 through the middle of the 3rd but Dallas tied it, then snatched the extra point in OT. Vegas’ slump continues (3-6-2 in the last 11).
To put a bow on it, Theodore was stopped on a breakaway, but completely misread the situation after, turning to follow Stone towards Lindell while letting Hintz easily go by him and leaving Eichel to handle a 2 on 1 leading to a well executed but easy winner.
I hope that type of judgement isn’t part of Theodore’s game for Canada at the 4 Nations.
Kaprizov came back and tried playing but the team and he came to the conclusion surgery is required and he is out for 4 weeks. His games missed total was already getting high enough that Hart Trophy consideration was getting faint, but this almost certainly ends his consideration for the trophy. Even with the 4 Nations Cup 2 week break, he will miss at least 10 more games, bringing his total games missed to 23 or more than 25% of the season.
I believe the last and perhaps only non goalie that played that low a percentage of his team’s games and win the Hart was Mario Lemieux, who missed 24 games in 92/93 but came back and won the Art Ross with 161 points and Pittsburgh won the President’s trophy. Kaprizov has no chance of achieving Lemieux’s level relative to his peers that season.
Raphael Lavoie in the lineup for VGK tonight.
8:28 TOI, -1, 0 shots and 3 hits
Blackwood 5 straight sub-.900 starts. Time to pull out the wedge?
Since we beat him. Have we broken another ‘tender?
No wonder we stopped getting the “last 5 game” updates on Blackwood.
I’m surprised he hasn’t been praising Rutherford and his desire to make lemonade from lemons. His latest kick has been trying to convince us all that Conroy is GM of the year
Now, with Oilers in the top 3 for the rest of the time it will take to post this; looking at some of the Eastern teams that Oilers might face like Hurricanes who Oilers really don’t want to open on the road in any finals.
Washington would be okay, but no Hurricanes please and certainly no Leafs; not that anyone has to worry about that happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oAOBnwXEcE
The Hockey Guy, as a fan of the Canucks, expresses his dismay about Rutherford’s interview with a Globe and Mail reporter that only throws more gas on the dumpster fire on the lower mainland.
Connects Bo Horvat’s comments, about being happy to be traded from Vancouver as a reflection of the chaos he left behind while he was the captain attempting to pacify the feuding teammates.
Also points out that Hughes may also get tired of trying to manage the divided locker room and decide to take his talents to the Jersey shore to join his brothers.
Vancouver is truly imploding in spectacular fashion. It almost sounds like the idea of a full on rebuild is on the table at this point.
While spectacular, let’s not forget that the Canucks have made the playoffs only once in the last four seasons, with largely the same core.
So, are they a good team imploding, or was last year the outlier?
Reminds me of Washington and their PDO heater
A comment explaining Miller’s ire at Pettersson:
“According to an ex- player in the Vancouver market, the story goes that Miller was angry about the contract Pettersson got, due to how much bigger than his it was. He was always hard on Petey, but took it to another level after this, in the name of “holding him accountable”. It got so bad that it was borderline abusive, at which point Tocchet stepped in, this led to Miller arguing with Tocchet, then the team put him on leave for a while. The reason it keeps flaring up is because Miller hasn’t changed his opinion on Petey, and Petey won’t forgive him for being so hard on him all the time.”
If true, Miller is a narcissistic asshole and the return should and would be 10 cents on the dollar. Teams better do their due diligence. The fact that Eastern teams are coming after him without considering his contract and his history is marvelous. Would love to see him disrupt chemistry on Carolina or Jersey. I wonder if Quinn has been warning his bros
Pettersson has been AWOL ever since he inked that monster deal.
Tocchet has stapled him to third line centre in the last couple of games, with way less ice time than an 11+ million dollar player would normally get.
I watched their game last Saturday live … the other Elias Pettersson (#25) was more impactful than #40. He was a ghost the last two times the Oilers played the Canucks.
I’m really hoping that Vancouver moves JT Miller out and keeps #40, which will guarantee many more years of mediocrity for the Dys.
Me too. But both sound like bad news to me. The rumored proposal of EP for Cozens and Byram would currently send the best player to Vancouver.
I have read other former teammates and coaches talk about how Miller has been a problem as well. It seems like he’s been a bit of a problem on each team he has been on. I know some brush it off as him being “competitive” or “wanting to win”, but I’m pretty confident that a majority of NHL players are also competitive and want to win, yet aren’t creating the same issues as Miller.
Once Miller and Pettersson are seperated I’m pretty sure you won’t hear about Petey being involved in drama like this again, but don’t think you can say the same about Miller.
I think you have it surrounded. However, once they’re separated, my question is: who shows up in the playoffs between Pettersson and Miller.
My money is on the asshole, like him or not.
In JT MIllers first 61 games in the playoffs with the Rangers and the Lightning over 6 seasons through 18/19, he netted 36 points including only 3 goals. Hardly a world beater to that point and he was already 26. His first season in Vancouver 19/20 and Pettersson’s only other season in the playoffs before last year, the pair played together when Vancouver had a nice run in the bubble with both players getting 18 points in 17 games. Both were significant and roughly equal contributors. Last season, the next time they made the playoffs, no question Miller outperformed Pettersson, but in fairness, Pettersson was playing through an injured knee since January which he had to rehab most of the summer. I don’t think it is conclusive that Miller will continue to be the better playoff performer going forward. Elias Pettersson is only just 26 now.
The other facet of this debacle is that with the interview, Rutherford stapled a bloody bag of meat to his GM Patrik Alvin and then sent him out to play with the wolves that are the other 31 GMs.
No way Alvin has any leverage to make a “better” deal. He just has to solve it by trading one or both of them and try to keep the bite marks on his butt to a minumum.
Usually, I don’t comment on speculative pieces because it’s hard to really know what’s going on in a dressing room.
Having said that both Horvat & Bruce Boudreau have confirmed a pretty intense feud.
anyone who follows Boudreau knows the guys a beauty.
The Canucks have some serious decisions to make & they could come out of this looking good or they can burn this thing down.
Good teams still win when not playing great,love it.
As far as the Truckin ,Grateful Dead reference. In 1983 a couple buds and myself took off to BC first saw Simon and Garfunkle reunion tour in the brand new at the time BC dome in Vancouver.Then we proceeded stateside to see the Grateful Dead twice once on Portland,once in Eugene Oregon,Oilers just lost out first time to Stanely Cup finals,Esks just kept winning Grey Cups.What a time.
Insane to rename the team after such a pathetic animal as bloody reindeers.
Speaking on behalf of a friend.
Well the non animal Esks won 5 cups in a row besting any professional football team,unless the reffs and Taylor want KC to equal or beat them,lol
When it comes to size, elk are bigger as they are 25-50% larger than reindeer. On average, elk weigh between 650-850 lbs, but some can grow much larger when given time (on average, reindeer weigh between 350-400 lbs, with domesticated populations generally being a bit smaller). Elk are the second largest members of the deer family, only behind moose.
Additionally, only male elk have antlers, while both male and female reindeer have them.
Pederson and Jarventie both had surgery today.
Pederson is done for the year. Slight chance that Jarventie will be back.
Petrov started skating. Hoping he’ll be back Feb 7.
Wanner also just stated skating and is also hopeful to play after the AHL all star break.
Derek Ryan will be in the lineup for the Condors tomorrow.
Not sure if he’ll center Savoie or if they’ll keep Hamblin there but coach did say the Ryan and Savoie will PK together.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9aHami8bIA
Friedman speculated that Avs last offer to Rantanen was $11.75 AAV to become the highest paid winger in the NHL whereas Rantanen was looking at just under $14 M to be close to Drai’s contract.
I hope Rantanen goes UFA and asks $15M AAV to handicap his new team.
Elliotte’s speculation is that the AVS will definitely give Makar a contract AAV that will be higher than MacKinnon. but he will be the only one. My guess is Makar gets $15M AAV times 8 by the summer of 2026… and it’ll still be a deal.
Draisaitl’s $14M AAV is going to be a bargain contract in 2 years and work out just as well as his previous $8M AAV contract barring injuries,
Another tidbit was that Carolina attempted to bring in a 4th team to further pare the cap hit(s). That would have given them to room to add another body closer to the TDL.
There are always the splashy names available at the TDL, but (going off memory) I struggle to recall the last time the big fish landed the Cup for the acquiring team.
Who are the solid depth pieces that don’t cost the moon to acquire? The 3/4/5 round picks + B or C level prospect kind of players?
Below is a list of possible players of interest. I haven’t done any kind of analytical deep dive on these names, this is kind of the pre-work. I acknowledge that several (Nelson/Tuch/Hayes, etc) will cost more than a depth pick and lesser prospect, but I included them due to perceived fit for need/style and contract status.
Probable selling teams at the deadline:
CHI
— Patrick Maroon
— Connor Murphy, TJ Brodie, Alec Martinez
SJS
— Klim Kostin
NSH
— Colton Sissons, Vinnie Hinostroza
— Luke Schenn
ANA
— Frank Vatrano
— Brian Dumoulin
SEA
— Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev
UTA
— Ian Cole
STL
— Oskar Sundqvist
— Ryan Suter
BUF
— Jason Zucker, Alex Tuch, Jordan Greenway, Sam Lafferty
— Henri Jokiharju
— James Reimer
PIT
— Kevin Hayes
— Marcus Petterson
— Alex Nedeljkovic
NYI
— Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmeri, JG Pageau, Matt Martin
— Alexander Romanov
Who do you see being a valuable under the radar acquisition? Who do you see as a glaring omission?
Maroon please.
He knows his role and will elevate the comedic level of the Oilers by a Warp Factor of proportions.
Mario Ferraro in SJ. Also Granlund.
Are they trading away assistant captains while trying to build a core?
I’m not saying no, but I do wonder if there’s a premium attached that makes any potential acquisition cost unpalatable. Also recall SJS have no open slots for salary retention.
I’m generally against retreads, but the likes of Kostin and Maroon are relatively intriguing.
Romanov is Radko Gudas 10 years younger. If the Isles retain 50% he would be one-quarter the price of Gudas @1.25M. Absolutely leveled McKinnon tonite to change the momentum and help the Isles win their fifth straight.
My personal picks would be Fredric & Tanev, strong, fast and tenacious.
I would try for an outside chance on Morgan Frost – apparently Tort’s hates the kid & he still produced, he’s young & cheap could be the Oilers 3rd or 2nd line centre.
he might be costly though.
Conclusions on goalies based on recent years and trends:
1 Goalies appear to be becoming like wingers in that multiple good ones are available cheap every single year
2 Performance is notoriously unreliable over term – unlike say a franchise center
3 Strong teams can win without an ace netminder
So logically you should not give goalies big money, acquire intriguing goalies with higher ceilings for cheap in quantity, and let your goaltender go if they attempt to cash in via term.
Goalies are a dime a dozen. Good news.
#2 is the key for me and I was talking about it in connection with the Blackwood and Thompson deals.
Except for the elite, and maybe second tier of tenders, there seems to be quite a bit of fluctuation in level of play from year to year and I would be remiss to give this level of tender big money for term – I would try to negotiate in a substantial discount to go for 3+ years.
There is so much risk.
Thomson has actually always had good numbers but he’s never really played much – he’s never carried a 1A load and is often hurt.
Blackwood has had fluctuations in performance over his career – team and injury have been factors but still.
I know we are probably going to get to this type of contract with Skinner – at least, to this point, he has been very durable (*knock on wood*) and shown to be able to handle 55 starts plus a 2-month playoff run.
We swung and missed on Campbell it cost us at least 1 Cup. Bowman needs to find the next Thompson or a buy low high reward netminder. Unless Skinner and Pickard win the Cup and I do think it’ll take the tandem I believe Bowman will bring in 2 fresh goalies to try and get us over the finish line. I keep hearing Skinner is a bargain for his average 902 save percentage but outside of Edmonton rose-coloured radius very few think he is.
You know, this is very easy to suss out yourself.
If league average SV% is 0.902, what is the league average AAV for starting goaltenders?
Does Skinner come in above or below that threshold?
Answer:
$151,591,677 ÷ 32 teams = $4,737,239.59
So the average AAV of a starting NHL goaltender is $4.7MM.
Skinner’s $2.6MM AAV is a value contract.
Full stop.
And guess what? He’s signed to that value contract next year, where he’ll ostensibly take another developmental step towards his prime.
27 goalies have a better save percentage than Skinner yet we are in 3rd place. Wasn’t there data a couple of days ago that we give up bottom 6 in high danger opportunities.
Your question that I replied to was “I keep hearing Skinner is a bargain for his average 902 save percentage but outside of Edmonton rose-coloured radius very few think he is.”
Please frame your response within those parameters so we can have an honest/productive discussion on the initial terms. Otherwise you’re simply moving the goalposts.
I don’t think many outside of Edmonton are analyzing Skinner vis-a-vis his cap hit.
Its fairly unreasonable to suggest that Skinner isn’t value for cap hit last year and this (and likely next year as well).
For fun try this ask anybody that’s a knowledgeable hockey fan for another team what the oilers weakest link is? It’s always the same answer even if you include the cap hit. I will happily eat 2 crows if Skinner and Pickard lead us to our 6th Cup
Citing goaltending as the weak link on the team is not the same thing as citing Skinner is not value for his contract.
All of this said, I would pay a lot to have Hellybuck. Jets best move was to lock him up.
That’s true but he’s the Mcdavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon of the goalie position.
Any interest in Boeser at 50% retained?
Or maybe JT Miller is a better target.
Either one for me.
I’m guessing to make it work you’re looking at Jinner (waiving his clause to go to a playoff team…) + some combo of picks and prospects.
I had wondered about including Arvidsson in a potential deal for Boeser. He surely has more trade value than Jeff Skinner, doesn’t have an NTC and clears cap for next year.
Savoie should be able to fill his spot next year.
No way Savoie replaces Ardvisson in the same role.
Ardvisson has 11 years NHL experience, Savoie 0
Spurious comment.
Both Arvidsson and Henrique lack trade protection and could be sent away if more cap space is required for an upgrade at their positions.
I know there’s a lot of talk about JT Miller being some sort of cancer in the Canucks locker room; but every time he plays against us, he is a beast. Seems like the kind of guy who is the wrong fit for the laid back West Coast lifestyle. Might be a perfect fit with the Oilers as there are even more intense guys than him in our dressing room. His cap hit isn’t so much the problem (8 million), but rather its the term left on the deal (5 years after this one).
Boeser also seems to play well against us, and was a beast in the playoffs. His shot is pure sniper and he’s got some jam when he’s engaged with some actual stakes to play for. 27 years old, RH shot, probably won’t break the bank on his next deal. I’d move Arvidsson for him and not worry about any retention. He may end up parlaying a good playoffs into a huge UFA deal, but that would open the door for Savoie to make the team.
Overall, that seems ok, until you want to contend again, you know next year, with lesser players.
Handing out positions to unproven players without competition was the decade of darkness Oilers, I’d prefer to have them work for it.
I agree – I think young players should force their way on to the roster. But that can be taken to the extreme, which results in the likes of Holloway being lost to another team that will play him in their top 6.
Hasn’t Savoie been having a solid season in the AHL? I don’t think he makes this year’s team but he’s played well enough and rounded out the rough edges in his game, and will be deserving of a roster spot next season.
1) The Oilers 4th line has been “spare parts/useful PK guys” for the past few years, but I do really like the look of 42-48-90 as a cohesive unit. Kap/Philp are big and can skate, and Perry plays well with young linemates who can offset some of his footspeed issues. They have had pretty good chemistry this year IMO.
2) I don’t want to bang the “Play Jeff Skinner more” drum any more than I always do, but I still hope he gets a few consecutive games in the lineup just to have a prolonged look without fear of being pulled out of the lineup due to a bad game/turnover. But then who do you take out of the lineup? Kapanen? Then you go back to a “spare parts” 4L unless you move Janmark down. Perry? Same problem/opposite side, plus you lose Perry’s sh1theadery which is all-world. Janmark or Brown? You lose valuable penalty killers. I’ve liked Jeff Skinner for years, but I can see how unless he plays himself into the lineup, KK is hesitant to pull someone else out. Personally, I’d like to see:
19-97-18
92-29-33
53-93-28
13-48-90
Swap 19/93 if you’d like, or Janmark as 4C and let Kapanen draw in. Just my $.02. But if Skinner can get back to 25-goal pace in the second half, that lineup could be lethal. He’s at his best as the primary puck-handler on his line, and I can see why he hasn’t been a great fit with 97 or 29.
3) I too am grateful Bouchard will have the 4N off – hopefully he benefits from the time off and can channel it into a dynamite run in the last half of the season/playoffs. He hasn’t looked like 2023-24 Bouchard much this year, but I’m not concerned he’s peaked.
4) I said on last night’s thread, but I think this is the best version of Darnell Nurse I’ve ever seen. I’m sure Coffey has helped unlocked something there, but kudos to the player. I can’t imagine what it’s like having an entire fanbase/city on your back and having the entire NHL media calling your deal one of the worst contracts in the league, but he’s really had an excellent year and silenced a lot of critics.
5) I’m coming around to the idea of leaving the goaltending as-is at the deadline. Notwithstanding my griping about his rebound control, Pickard had a great game last night and is having another strong season.
6) Anxious to seek Klingberg play. Trying not to get my hopes up, but if he’s healthy + 80% of what he was in his prime, oh baby watch out. Even if he’s just a Swedish MA Bergeron that has value (but please keep him away from Stu …)
New rumor is that Rantanen is interested in signing in Edmonton next season. (as per Andy Strickland)
Discuss….
I hope it happens, just so I can see HH start calling him an old, overated, overpriced bum who isn’t even a C anymore and was never good to begin with.
If he does I guess we’ll need to let McD explore opportunities elsewhere.
Maybe Rantanen is so mad he’s gone joker mode and the 14 million isn’t as important as rubbing it in their faces from the same time zone.
If McDavid makes it known he’s moving on the play is sign Rantanen at value and trade McDavid to the highest bidder with cost controlled assets. If Marner doesn’t resign in Toronto Treliving will roll out the red carpet for McDavid he may very well tell Bowman that’s he’s leaving. I still believe McDavid will stay with his buddies Leon-Nurse and try to win multiple Cups in the next 10 years.
As lovely as it would be, the only way it is salary cap viable is if the cap goes to ~$95m and Kane is traded and either Nurse or Bouch are traded.
Rumors are fun. Likelihood of that happening for a guy that clearly wanted to maximize his salary. None.
Rantanen said in a Finnish interview recently he was willing to take a market discount to stay and was shocked that he was traded.
Not that I think that means he would take such a discount where the Oilers would be able to afford him, but he gives the impressiom that he wasn’t looking for the maximum when negotiations were happening.
If you’ve already made more than $55M USD, and are good with money, you’re more than set enough to not demand top dollar in a capped league in order to get yourself a ring and play where/with whom you’d like.
So long as he doesn’t feel the need to kiss the union’s rear end, this may well be his perspective.
Unlikely – but sure would be something!
From the Steve Dangle podcast, the way Rantanen and his agent were looking at is was, when MacKinnon signed for 12.6M AAV, it represented 15.1% of the total cap in the year it started.
The cap projection for 2025-26 at the start of the year was that the cap was going to be $92.5M and $14M AAV would be … 15.1% of the cap.
If the newer cap projections are correct and it goes to $97M, then Rantanen would be taking a “hometown discount” at $14M AAV (14.4% of the cap limit) by taking less than the 15.1% of the total cap that MacKinnon got.
Meanwhile the Avs were like, “Nope, nothing above MacKinnion’s $12.6 AAV”.
Colorado traded Rantanen because they weren’t talking the same language. Rantanen and his agent were looking at percentage of cap and the Avs were looking at the exact cap AAV and trying not to build the top heavy Toronto Maple Leafs West.
I doubt there is a GM in hockey who would give Rantanen the same cap hit as MacKinnon or the same money if they were signing at the same time. One of these 2 is Batman and the other is Robin. I expect that to become more evident in their play now that they are separated. 14.4% of the cap is not a discount if MacKinnon’s 15.1% is the comp, its an overpay.
Cap to $97M
Oilers salary before Bouch signing:
$76.3M
-Kane 5.125M
~71.2M
Rantanen $12.5M
Bouch $10M
~4M to bring up Savoie, resign Philp, and extend Emberson.
You really only need to survive 1 year when they’re projecting a 110M cap so if you can dip into LTIR just to survive the year the burden eases significantly in line with a 97 extension.
It’s doable. You’re hamstrung in 26 but options open up in 27.
My wish, regardless of what other manoeuvres get done, is to exit training camp with a 22-man (or 23) roster. Enough of shenanigans with paper transactions, risking waivers unnecessarily, 11&7s because no bench, etc.
That’s two burn-the-tapes games in a row. Sheesh.
I hope it was just the flu. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Nuge play as bad as he played last night. Only Kapanen and Philp with less TOI. Still, I was stunned when KK put that line out for the second last shift after the game they were having, and of course they promptly got hemmed in and couldn’t get off the ice. (I think it was supposed to be third last shift but they got stuck out there so long).
Bright spots… Picks obviously had himself a game and, sweet baby Jesus, the Oilers needed him to. I thought Philp handled the speed of the game better than he did the game before. He almost seems to be going good game, bad game. I think Eks was playing sick. He seemed to be struggling at times but would then make some superhuman Nordic god effort to make things right. Boosh actually made a couple of decent defensive plays but also a couple of boners. We know Doc was sick and that’s a pretty good game considering. Kulak and Emberson always seem to make me happy.
My big problem with last night is that this team is supposed to have a baseline game they can revert to when things aren’t right… sick, dead legs, travel, injury, suspension etc. Last night they defenestrated that baseline game and instead every damn single forward line decided to play like Barbara Ann Skinners. Complete lack of puck management most of the night. Maybe we should re-name the team the “Edmonton Blind Passers”. I cannot think the coach was happy with any of it. Good time for a three day break.
Ekholm played 3 minutes more then anyone else, if he was sick he certainly didn’t let it hold him back.
Nuge had more TOI then Perry, Arvidsson, Philp, Henrique, Podkolzin, Kapanen.
All numbers I used are at 5v5 as per the host’s preference. And at 5v5 Boosh had a full min more than Eks too, which should tell you something. Both Eks and Nuge got PK time, which accounts for the discrepancy..
Which was a bright spot I forgot. PK was great (Krak PP being awful is part of the reason).
Special teams is part of the 60mins, Nuge plays the most significant minutes on special teams. It’s always going to make his 5×5 toi not line up and I don’t think it should allow anyone to take shots at him for it imo.
WTF???
Bouch with a minute more than Ek at 5 on 5 tells me that the Oilers were on the PK more than the PP where Bouch is likely to get a follow-up shift while Ek recovers from the kill.
I thought Ek was strong last night for most of the game.
You probably can’t wait until the Oilers are struggling to make the playoffs again, like they always did for the 20 years or so prior to the recent standings Renaissance.
It wasn’t long ago that in order to win, the Oilers needed a very strong game from the top of the roster to the bottom.
It’s great when the Oilers control play and the result is never really in doubt — but I’m appreciating that they now have a team that can win even if parts of their game is wonky.
It’s not sustainable long-term of course, but if the Oilers can get 6 out of a possible 8 points with two of the wins consisting of a lot of wobble that’s pretty great.
Yep, not so long ago the idea of critiquing an Oilers win was very foreign. I have seen and heard a lllooottttt of complaining about the Oilers’ performance in games they win lately. Maybe there will come a day when the Oilers go 75-7 in the regular season with a +200 GD en route to a 16-2 playoffs. Until then, I’ll enjoy 1st in the division and 3rd in the league by hook or by crook.
It was a Monday night game against a non-rival, non-playoff team in January with the team sitting 3rd in the NHL and milking points nightly.
This baseline game that they are supposed to have, well, I would suggest that every top team has games below their supposed baseline here and there.
This is the apex of “critiquing wins” – not just this post, a bunch of similar posts, for a team that is now 3rd in the league.
I think it’s fair to critique a less than complete effort where the team could have done better.
Win or not.
Critiques, sure, and of course.
What I find over the top is the “elite teams don’t do “X” and “contending teams don’t do “Y” when, in fact, yes, they all do both X and Y.
I’m not saying this post, per se, but its a thing we read about the Oilers every time there is a loss or even a multi goal deficit in a game.
Heck, take a look a Vegas over the last few weeks and their overall records, them piling up loses against poor teams, their poor stretch of tending, etc., etc. – all things “championship teams’ don’t do when they happen to the Oilers, right?
I don’t.
Agreed. Pretty sure that is what the coaching staff does even if it doesn’t show up so much as criticism as in drills at the next practice & video review.
Judging based on winning & losing are a little like conclusions.
People who don’t really understand the subject judge you on your answer whereas those who do understand care more about getting the process that led to the conclusions right.
You can have the correct answer just by lucky guess but if you understand the right way to figure out answers you can repeat it regardless of changing circumstances. 😎
Bang on.
The line of Podz/Nuge/Arvidsson had two strong games when McDavid was out – I think that is a solid 2nd line when there is load up – or can be.
A real top 4 RD would be the add that puts this team over, not a guy that Nurses stallion behavior simply carries. If Columbus can’t come to terms with Provorov, does Savoie, Picks, and stuffing get the job done?
Arvidsson has not been himself since that shot block, he’s a battler but maybe they should ice him and get that ailment healed up. His inner relentless dawg has been kenneled.
Janny with the nice screen tip, Brown with a much needed play to offset the bees that were attacking him.
Pickard loves to win.
Moving Savoie would be a mistake, especially for a rental.
Agreed – Savoie is not untouchable but, unless its a Rantanen impact rental, nope – he’s close to NHL impact ready.
Let Arvi heal, call up Savoie. Have a looksee, see what he’s got at the NHL level.
Seems unlikely right away. They are already test driving Philp and soon Klingberg. While they are far more comfortable in their place in the standings than last season at this point, there is a likely a limit to how many experiments they would want to voluntarily try at one time. If Arvidsson is playing through something and the staff believes he is not risking making it worse, he will get 2 weeks of break during the 4 Nations Cup. If he can play, Arvidsson, himself can still improve his integration into the Oiler’s team play with more reps.
IMO Savoie is not ready. He had two very bad giveaways Sunday against Coachella,The way I saw the assist, it came from him fumbling the puck, not making a play. I’m no scout and I do think he has a future, just not ready yet.
Bouch sure did struggle with the puck for much of last night but he made 3 brilliant plays in the 3rd period where, in each case, he made a plus defensive play and immediately moved the puck forward for a fast break. One was a step up at the blue line and zone entry denial, one was a cycle break and the other was an interception of a dangerous zone entry pass.
Bouchard’s “extra” plus was Perry’s goal, where his temporary partner Nurse made the great pass.
For much of the game it was his regular partner Ekholm who made a number of fine outlet & stretch passes, including the one to Draisaitl who fed McDavid for the 2-2, which was Bouch’s other plus.
Bouchard himself had 4 official giveaways, all in the defensive zone, one of which led to a GA.
He also made a few plays of the type you reference, turning defence to offence, a particular specialty of his. You are absolutely correct that these often get less notice than they deserve, including from me in my player grades last night. (I tend to zoom in on actual goals) For sure his 5 man unut was dominating possession & he was part of it, though
perhaps the weakest of the five in this particular game. He typically holds his own in that dept.
As our host often states “They were looser than Neil Young & Crazy Horse at the Fillmore”
Entertaining game but not playoff caliber hockey. They need to tighten up.
Drai was forcing passes and giving away the puck way too many times
Bouch had another bad night; turnovers, and poor puck decisions. The knives would be out on him if it wasn’t for Ekholm. Consistency is becoming an issue; or perhaps he’s having an issue with a very forceful 2 man forecheck
With all due respect, what’s important about playing “playoff hockey” in January?
It was a Monday night game against a non-rival, non-playoff team in January with the team sitting 3rd in the NHL and milking points nightly.
I wouldn’t expect anything close to playoff like hockey, right?
Bouch had a tough night with the puck, in particular early – fair game to talk about. Noone seems to mention the 3 great plays he made which each included a plus defensive play and a quick transition for an Oilers fast break.
Henrique has really been playing well lately. For some reason he seems like he is skating faster these days. Nurse is having a good season so far and I wonder how much of his last two season woes can be attributed to being paired with Ceci. Not to crap on Ceci but the two of them were not a good pair. Kulak has really stepped up also. The two of them are helping each other play at a higher level.
I attribute most of Nurse’s woes the last few season to him not being near fully healthy since playing through the torn hip flexor in the 2022 playoffs. That’s a presumption on his lack of healthy but its one that I have.
1.Healthy. 2.Paul Coffey.
LT re your second line (Henrique) woes – please explain. Their shot share as per your table and NaturalStatTrick is 71% (same as McD line). To my eye they were buzzing.
My pleasure, Reverend. The second line last night, by minutes, with the Nuge line. The third line, 20 seconds behind, was the Henrique line. So, the criticism was for the Nuge line, while I did have flowers for the Henrique trio. We are in agreement.
I think San Jose center Mikael Granlund is the obvious one to go after. Almost every team has a chance at the post season except for 4 or 5 clubs
San Jose can’t retain money on Granlund’s contract.
If you can fit $5M somehow (bye J Skinner), then I like the Granlund idea.
It doesnt have to be SJ that retains, someone else can. But don’t we have right around 5M to play with?
If Skinner is going to waive his NTC he will have to go to a playoff team.
Same as it always was, but coach and GM need to find a way to separate the Glimmer twins as there just isn’t enough centre depth.
Neither Nuge or Henri are demonstrating the ability to carry a line at the moment – and there is no indication that this will improve. They are not getting better.
Does a strong, two way, scoring winger unlock the top two lines?
I think what happens when the glimmer twins play together too much is the other lines miss a driver but they also don’t play at their best. They start being too fancy and constantly looking to pass to each other. Drai seems to stop skating as well.
Henri’s line did well out there, so this comment must not be in relation to last nights game.
Seems to me, the centre with podz and arvi has done well all season. Its browns and janmarks centre that struggles. Why do we think its a centre issue, and not a winger issue?
I dont think we need every centre to :carry” their line, and am entirely unconcerned about the second line We need a 3rd line that carries itself as a unit.
But id rather a rhd.
The 3rd line if it’s Nuge and the custodians, has scored 3 ESG the last two games.
‘Nuge and the custodians’ – ha.
Ya we have a good team. Kane may push someone off (i hope) when he returns.
Klingberg may push a rhd off.
An upgrade this year will have to be a pretty good player.
Nuge was able to carry a line with Podz and Arvy recently for two good games and then had a good game with Janmark and Brown (prior to a not good game with them last night.
I think Knob is currently just testing out a bunch of line combinations to see what he might go to in the future when, inevitably, he wants/needs to load up.
Is anyone concerned about Hyman’s ability to finish games… he was set up for 2 sure goals but missed on both including a crossbar on an open net. If he finishes those plays Oilers win easily. He is not bad but last year he was elite.
30-goal pace after his outlier season? I think that’s a solid year. Honestly.
He will get hot again. Hopefully its playoff heat.
Hyman is a very good player but he’s no Jari Kurri.
Once you get past the top 2 players Hyman is in that 2nd tier.
Besides, hasn’t he been injured and had been wearing special recovery headgear?
He’s obviously still…recovering.
His sh% is down from 12 last year to 10 this year (it was 12 in the year before last too), and his PDO is down by 1 point (101.1 to 100.1). This year he is not getting the same luck, which is the difference.
In the replay, the bouncing puck flipped up on his stick, which is why that shot rose faster than what he was trying to do.
Leon’s missed at least 2 that are normally easy for him over the last 2 games as well. It happens.
Goal scorers generally go on heaters, and have periods where they aren’t as hot. Hyman had a recent heater when everything went in and, now, well, he’s still scoring but not at the same rate.
What about Drai? He is off his heater now – missed an open net last game (and an open net the prior game – in fact, two shots in a row).
He’ll get hot again as well I’m sure.
I see the 0-3 start referenced often but to me the hole was even deeper and more grim. In the first 7 games the Oilers were 2-5. That’s 8.5% of the season and their only victories were an OT win over a weak Flyers team and a 4-2 win over the pathetic, but we didn’t know it at the time, Preds team that didn’t truly end till Kulak scored an empty netter.
All that to say that the Oilers turn-around and the fact that today they sit atop their division are even more impressive than what their 0-3 start suggests.
They went 0-3-0 and then 2-2-0 to get to 2-5-0. I don’t think there’s much difference, honestly. They were digging a hole no matter what photo you’re looking at from October.
Agreed on digging a hole, but disagree on their not being much difference between 0-3 and 2-5. That’s 4 additional games of falling behind the competition. 500 winning percentage does not win divisions.
How much is the view of this impacted by it happening to start the season, as opposed to during the season.
I mean, what to be said of the Knight’s recent 2-6-1 stretch which includes losses to Nashville, Chicago, STL (OT), NYR and NYI????
The Oilers were 2-4-1. They were 2-1-1 in those next 4 games; a points percentage of .625 which over 82 games is 102.5 points. The team was already digging out of the hole. Rock bottom in their season points percentage and place in the standing was after game 3. They have been rising ever since.
Regardless of what anyone says about how they feel about how points are awarded in an overtime game, in current NHL system, an OTL loss is more valuable than a loss so it is not the same as a loss. A team with 15 wins and 67 OTL losses would end up in or on the cusp of the playoffs at 97 points despite being viewed by some as 15 W 67 losses.
Oilers were nursing playoff hangovers. That’s how top teams can operate.
If you want to follow great regular season teams, I suggest the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Haha. Yeah no interest in following the Maple Leafs. I don’t care what the talking heads at TSN say, they will always be pretenders, not contenders, to me.
Chuckled at LT’s Edmonites comment. Don King made up this term back in the day when Tyson was supposed to fight Razor Ruddock in Edmonton.
Team is looking like the MacT adage of ‘winning games you shouldn’t’ at the end of a win streak. Buffalo and Seattle were both not getting put in the Louvre anytime soon.
5 games to the break. The team is good enough to win not at their best but you’d like to see a bit of a refocus before the home stretch. Vegas will be nipping at their heels till the very end.
Back and forth for sure with Vegas. As the AVS stated, we aren’t quite deep enough yet. I hope Bowman thinks this way as well, fixing that with no room is a whole different ball game.
It’s not clear right now where the upgrade is needed.
RHD? Klingberg is going to need at least a 10 game showcase to see if he’s a meaningful upgrade on Stetcher/Brown. If he is, then is there another RHD available that’s going to improve our 6th best defense?
Scoring winger? With Kane coming back by the playoffs, who do you move out to make room?
2nd line centre? Lol – everyone is looking for that. The TDL prices would be astronomical. Short of Sid Crosby saying after the 4N that he only wants to play with McDavid, is there anyone out there that really raises the bar? That we can afford asset and cap-wise?
Goalie? honestly, all Pick does is win. Stu is the leagues best deal for a starting goalie. Neither goalie are the reason why we lose games. Again, is there another goalie out there that is better than what we have, that we can afford asset and cap-wise?
It will hopefully be clearer what we need, versus what’s available at the TDL.
Agree where is it? totally…
I wouldn’t mind a yanni gourde type player for the forwards even with Kane coming back, I agree that a 2nd line center is not going to…Everything will be overpriced. High motor type, can score a bit, hits, goes, goes, goes. I am not a huge Klinger fan at this point but I hope he makes a great comeback, I like the risk. A 4-5 defensive D would be welcome.
Again, most of this is likely impossible with prices and availability.
Wishes.
RHD is still the play. The Oilers are a good team that are playing well, but every contending team is going to upgrade and you’d be kicking yourself if you do nothing and lose a game 7 to Vegas.
Being able to roll out Ekholm-Bouchard and Nurse with a substantial partner behind this forward group makes this team a juggernaut. It’s not going to be easy, but that’s the player you want to find. If that means Emberson/Klingberg/Stetcher ends up watching most of the playoffs from the press box, so be it. Josh Brown seeing the ice in the playoffs is either bad management or bad injury luck.
How can you know a RHD is still the play if you can’t know how Klingberg will play? He cost no assets out and a modest cap space hit over the buriable amount. If he has rejuventated his game, the asset cost and cap hit cost to upgrade on what he will bring could be substantial. This is a guy that less than 36 months ago, the team that knew him best was offering him 8 year x $7 million. And they were aware of the short term deterioration of his play and injury issues. The RHD as an upgrade will only again be in play after the Oilers test drive Klingberg and if he turns out to still be a shadow of the player that Dallas was willing to sign.
I guess that is the one X factor, but I think it is incredibly unlikely that Klingberg is a true #4 or better D at this point. Even still, that shouldn’t discourage the Oilers from getting a stud to play with Kulak. That would be in contention for best D corps in the league if you had 2018 Klingberg.
For sure the Oilers took a calculated risk in signing Klingberg. But they would have done their due diligence as much as they could before the signing. I doubt their take was that it was incredibly unlikely that Klingberg could be a true #4. Might not be 50/50 that he gets all the way to solid 3-4, but it would have to be awfully close to that for them to give up their deadline cap space for the signing. And if Klingberg looks like he can be a true #4 by the deadline, why spend huge resources get another defenseman when that might be of use to upgrade elsewhere. If he doesn’t look like he can get there, they will then have to alter their plan. If he does look good, they still may want a better fit than Stecher (more size but more dynamic than Brown) as injury cover in case Klingberg’s recovery does not hold but that would be more of a 5-7 level D.
I agree that “incredibly unlikey” seems a bit harsh and I’ll go with “reasonably possible”.
I do believe, if Klingberg looks like a solid fit at 2RD, they will still acquire a depth d-man.
I am certainly down with your Crosby scenario.
That is going to be interesting to watch following the break. Does Vegas find a way to put a win streak together and push for the top? Or does Edmonton hold on to their tight checking ways and keep it?
The TDL may be even more interesting because of this race.
Or, its just a good team grinding through the dog days of the season and doing what they need to to rack up points.
Not the prettiest edition last night but a win!
Gotta love the disallowed goal in the Vancity St Loo game and the allowed goal in the OIL game. Now put them split screen, watch them. Guess the outcome! LOL ohhhh nhl
Thanks for the blog all. Always solid.
Yeah, i was remarking on that too. Both forwards went into the blue paint on their own & then tried to dance around the goalie.
Opposite calls. Both challenged. Both upheld.
At least the Oilers managed to kill the penalty. St. Louis couldn’t & they were toast.
Yes, I didn’t mind the challenge as it was early and the confidence to kill the penalty was obviously there.
It was a 50/50 depending on which team the replay official preferenced. Actually I believe they went with the call on the ice as it was waved off in St.Loo which is pretty standard.
You wonder too if the decision was based not only on the confidence in your own PK but on Seattle having only an 18% power play on the year and 13% in the last 2 weeks. Maybe the coaching staff doesn’t make that same risky challenge again the Jets, Golden Knights or Lightning who all have PP’s clicking around 40% in that same 2 week span.
Even the coach mentioned it post-game.