If I were in Stan Bowman’s chair, I would make a note to resist trading Matthew Savoie and devote considerable attention on signing KHL winger Maxim Berezkin. Both men would be strong roster candidates in the fall if they attend Oilers training camp. How do these men look using NHL equivalencies?
NHLE
I don’t use this metric much anymore, mostly because the Oilers don’t have draft picks and don’t have many prospects bubbling under. However, there are five names who have emerged as legit prospects to follow based on their NHLE’s:
Over the years, I’ve tightened the discussion surrounding NHLE’s. Why? Because if a player is in the AHL and owns a 23 NHLE, he’s going to make it to the NHL for reasons other than offense. That’s Noah Philp. We can talk about his NHL future, and I do think he has one, but I don’t believe he will play a feature role. Fourth-line centre, maybe some third-line work, faceoff expert and PK man. That has value. NHLE doesn’t help us frame that value.
I look at only forwards who reach 30 NHLE points and defensemen who are 15 NHLE points or more. Anything below that borderline is a player who brings other things (physical play, exceptional shutdown ability, etc) or he’s never going to be an NHL player.
Maxim Berezkin is 23, his time is now. He’s a KHL free agent this spring. We know he’s a big man who can separate player from puck, has passing ability and can score goals. He’s also a giant (6.04, 211) on skates. We don’t know about his wheels, but he’s absolutely worth a contract. According to the KHL site, he is a free agent May 31. Sign him, Stan!
Savoie is signed and could play tomorrow night, but the temptation for trade is there. Hold the line, Stan! Don’t do it. Value deals are vital, especially for those who project to play a key role in the Oilers future. Next year’s RW depth chart could be Zach Hyman, Savoie, Viktor Arvidsson, Connor Brown, Corey Perry. You could get that done with $13 million.
Sam O’Reilly projects as a future foundation piece, a RH two-way center who can play on the second or third line. The fact his offense is so strong in his draft plus one season tells us he’s on track for that role in due time.
The defensemen are both interesting. Beau Akey’s offense didn’t come back completely after a year away, but his foot speed will play anywhere. I’d be hesitant to fade him. Albin Sundin is a RH defender with a good defensive reputation and the ability to move the needle offensively. Both defensemen should be considered less likely to have NHL careers than any of the forwards, but they are legit and that makes five.
Samuel Jonsson is a goalie, so has no NHLE to discuss. His Save Percentage in the Allsvenskan this season (.922) and his size (6.03) make him a legit NHL prospect worthy of discussion.
The Lowdown hits at noon today! Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and Host of Puck Social will pop in to talk Oilers and their fight for home-ice advantage in the first round. How important is it? We’ll chat with Jason Gregor about lines, McDavid’s ETA and Alex Ovechkin’s date with history. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic:How Oilers’ Corey Perry remains a key roster player at (almost) 40 years old
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6242206/2025/03/31/oilers-corey-perry-stats/
I had high hopes for this team after last year’s playoff run. For any number of reasons, my hopes were a setup for disappointment. With the exception of Draisaitl’s performance, and Corey Perry. Pretty much every week this season he’s given me a reason to smile.
Nice piece LT.
Agree 100% sign Maxim Berezkin!
Appears Martin Gernat might be the #1 D on his squad. Nice.
Summarizing!
Second verse, same as the first.
Wakely assisted twice, Akey once as Barrie gassed a 5-1 lead in the third and needed late heroics for a 7-5 win. The Colts take a 2-0 series lead on the road on the morrow.
Prime Video showing footage of Gabriel Landeskog fully participating in the morning skate and running the power play.
Could be a factor in the playoffs.
Very scary.
Every team might as well forfeit
The last time we saw him in game action he was racing the Stanley Cup over his head.
Man deserves some respect.
Unlike you….
Maybe Landeskog will throw another chicken wing and ruin someone’s career like he did with Yamamoto.
He doesn’t deserve respect.
The first part is a good point.
LT, I am appreciating the King Crimson nod in the title of this post.
One of my favorite tracks from the early KC period is this jazzy-sounding tune that ends with Fripp shredding on what sounds like an electric banjo. Fantastic.
Epitaph one of the best songs ever.
Thanks!
If you haven’t seen Meltdown yet, I highly encourage you to check it out. The full Dolby 5.1 surround sound version if possible.
The technical skill that these men achieved (2017) is impressive.
Median age was like 70. Mel Collins re-appeared with the band and was exquisite.
They retooled some of the older songs from Islands and Lizard, etc.
This album, pulled from live performances in Mexico City, is the pinnacle of progressive rock.
So many good highlights, but “The Letters” then “Sailor’s Tale” and the following songs after are one of the top moments.
Thanking you for the recommendation!
New 12 year, US$7.7B TV rights deal with Roger’s announced.
https://www.sportico.com/leagues/hockey/2025/nhl-rogers-new-media-deal-billion-1234845631/
Requires board approval.
12 more years of mediocre presentation and surface level analysis.
I miss watching Oilers games on TSN.
Not to mention substandard streaming quality.
This and HH’s comment all day.
Hate this Rogers trash and always have.
And poor sound.
While I wouldn’t have minded TSN getting a subset of games like times past, I for one am happy to see it stay on a cable provider and not succumb to the likes of Netflix/Prime. Call me a (relatively young) dinosaur but I have no interest in signing up for 3-4 different streaming services.
It may be delusional but I like to think that Sportsnet will continue to work on issues in terms of programming/quality etc.
Sportsnet never works on improving its product…just cutting costs to maximize profits.
It’s not even that – they’re in a protected racket. Hopefully not for much longer.
Can’t see that changing any time soon.
Former Vice Chair of the CRTC and Editor of the Calgary Herald:
https://x.com/Pagmenzies/status/1906848208791425123
Blame Bettman.
I don’t know the ins and out (and I don’t think details have been disclosed) but I presume there will be on-licensing and streaming involved.
My hope its not a higher volume that this season – I prefer regular network to streaming for sports still.
They won’t. Would’ve been a ton better on either of the services you named, or a bunch of others. They purposely make their app bad so people switch back.
Anyone who needs to see the difference in production values and video streaming quality can see the difference right now if they have Amazon Prime.
https://www.primevideo.com/detail/0RNIOS15GH1ZQZXS740N2BLWNL/ref=atv_plr_landingpage_play
The differences are stark.
Rogers will likely sell Monday night rights to Amazon.
I would hope they will hive off one game every night to Amazon.
I most often watch on my 27″ inch 5K iMac and the Amazon quality is spectacular while the SN feeds often don’t even appear to be HD.
I really enjoy the Amazon broadcasts.
Some big winds blowing in the world right now that could easily result in the propped-up media racket falling down. We’ll see what happens.
Interesting that Edmonton has been a bit active in signing players recently. Bakersfield, too. I know we’re all waiting to see what’s going on with current prospects already, so maybe these help or provide clues as to how they’re shoring up the prospect lines.
Fort Wayne had also signed a trio of collegiate d-men, presumably to replace the ones who got called up to bolster the banged-up blue in Bakersfield.
Lots of negativity on twitter today about the no home ice LA Kings matchup. Many seem to think the boys can’t win that series.
Captain Renault’s reaction: “I am shocked, shocked to find that
gamblgringing is going on here (X)!I normally wouldn’t say anything, but it was none other than Curlock and Woodguy!
Moneypuck has the Kings at 61.9% to move on to the second round.
This is adding new meaning to gambler’s fallacy.
Moneypuck is not based on gambling.
Here is an explanation of the model.
https://moneypuck.com/about.htm
Ok, yes I understand that the origins are from “Moneyball”. But still… it’s the fourth time they are meeting…
“The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa). The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more likely to be six than is usually the case because there have recently been fewer than the expectednumber of sixes.”
I understand that…but it has nothing to do with how Moneypuck reaches its projections.
The only reference to past events is that home teams win 54% of NHL games and why that is is clearly explained.
I expect LA’s clearly superior defensive play and goaltending are/will be big factors
In looking at current team records, you will see that while the Oilers have 42 wins to the Kings 41, the Kings have won 36 games in regulation to the Oilers 30 meaning the only reason the Oilers are close to the Kings in the standings is because of wins in 3 on 3 OT.
There is no 3 on 3 in the playoffs.
Perhaps not a determining factor but certainly worth watching.
In season evidence suggests a closer outcome than this prediction, with EDM owning a 52% share in expected goals and 50% in actual goals over two games.
Tanner is weighting goaltending heavily in his game predictions. But ask yourself, what happens when Draisaitl, McDavid and one of the greatest power plays of all time is unleashed at full force on the Kings? This kind of finishing is not in his model.
What we are seeing here from pundits, and what you are trying to prop-up with this prediction is precisely gambler’s fallacy.
I mean of course you think LA will win. But how on Earth can we take that seriously. Have you ever thought Oilers would win a series?
Also, you talk about the 6 extra points Oilers have because they won more games in ot than the kings.But if teams were not rewarded for losing Oilers would be 2 points up on LA right now.
If we beat L.A twice in regulation I still think will get 2nd place.
If we beat them twice in regulation we will most likely get second. We lose twice in regulation they likely take it. It’s gonna come down to the wire…
For every team that wins it comes down to people and health
And desire. 06 Oilers had no business
Do it again!!!!
So, where did this trading Savoie thing come from? It seems odd that media keeps pushing Edmonton to trade their young players, especially players that they recently acquired, and then also lambast them for doing the same.
It’s not like “the media” is one collective hive mind. Spector (say) could advocate for trading Savoie and LT can turn around say that’s a foolish plan. Totally independent opinions (and employers). Both write an article on their opinion. Nothing contradictory about it.
The only reason Savoie name is brought up is because he’s the only legit prospect we have maybe Akey if you squint hard enough. Holland completely gutted the farm teams we have nothing to trade. Bowman has no other choice but to find a needle in some schnitzel or fluke off a NCAA player.
Two more assists for Berezkin today – now up to 4 in 3 playoff games.
They really need to get him and Munzenburger signed. Hope they don’t have to trade them in order to recoup some assets.
Come on Stan – do your thing!
Munzenburger has been eligible to sign for 3 weeks now.
Berezkin can’t be signed until June 1.
Oilers sign Damien Carfagna D from Ohio state
A 2-year ELC given his age.
The ELC kicks in next year. I think they can have him go to Bako on an ATO but not sure if that’s the plan.
Highlight pack of Carfagna from a game vs. Michigan State earlier this month in which he had 1+1:
https://youtu.be/xmnD5meIJ44?si=A8uzmlvQtj7CLA-E
He wears #93, a tribute to his uncle who had also worn that number.
From the very smart Bruce Curlock:
Despite his relative smallish frame, he is an excellent skater, and a very heady player.
He is the highest scoring UFA NCAA Division 1 defensemen that the organization has signed since Justin Schultz.
Not a signing I was expecting, best case, IMO, is he turns out to be a better version of Jordan Oesterle.
The Dman I thought they might have a shot at was 6’3” American Mac Gadowsky, but whose father is from Edmonton and was Carfagna’s Head Coach at Ohio State.
I believe Guy Gadowsky is the HC at Penn State (source: every episode of Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer, Guy’s bantam linemate haha). I agree though he’s someone I hope they’re looking at.
As for Carfagna, I wonder if KK had some insight on him for Stan. He was a devt camp invite with the Rags in 2023 when KK would’ve been coaching the AHL squad.
I’m only guessing, but if he ran the camp like the Oil have their AHL coach do, KK would have first hand knowledge of our new signing.
Shoot, you are right. I knew it was a major football school. Thanks for clearing that up. I am unable listen to Stauffer’s show anymore since the time switch, but primarily since the frequency change I don’t get the signal in YYC anymore.
Speaking of broadcasters, Gadowsky was a classmate and friend of Gord Miller’s in high school.
My suspicion is this signing was as influenced by Kalle Larsson as anyone, given his USHL and via the USHL, his US Development Team knowledge.
Wait, this kid that you wanted signed, his father was the coach of the kid we did sign? That’s strange …
Seems like he’s still available….
I was wrong.
Gadowsky has 16 goals as a defenseman. While strength of schedule might be a factor, that is a substantial and exceptional number for an NCAA defenseman.
That is Makar and Schultz territory.
I didn’t mind the Savoie trade because you need to spread out your complementary players. But losing Holloway and Broberg and McLeod gave us a big gap in that age group.
I wouldn’t look to trade Savoie, but if you can get a real difference maker you do it
I would like to add Luca Munzenburger to this list but its been 3 weeks and he should be in Bako by now if he was going to be.
There is huge opportunity for him here. He’d instantly be the team’s top LD prospect (and 2nd overall D prospect) and an important incumbent turns 35 in two months and has a single year left on his contract – the path is clear.
Probably more interested in completing his degree and going back to Europe to try to make the German Olympic team.
I can see him wanting to completing his degree (since he is a Senior) as Vermont’s current semester ends of May. When your that close, why skip out for a few games in Bakersfield.
But with the NHL going to the next Olympics, I don’t see why Munzenburger couldn’t make the team if he was playing in Bakersfield next season. Even if the AHL doesn’t shut down, I would think he could ask prior to signing a contract that if selected to play for Germany he would be granted leave.
Its a narrative and, when challenged on it, he ignores and does not engage in discourse – but posts the same the next time around.
Given the player came over as a teenager to play hockey in North America, I think we can presume the NHL is a goal (or maybe dream) for him.
There is no sane world where playing in the German league propagates that goal more than signing an NHL ELC and playing in the AHL – that’s without even speaking of the clear path to the NHL if he did so with the Oilers (top LD prospect in the org – Ekholm turning 35, slowing down and with one year left on his contract).
How many German scouts are going to scout Bakersfield and try projecting and comparing vs. guys playing in Europe, who are more known quantities, and have mostly played with each other before.
If Munzenberger wants to make the team, he pretty much has to be competing against and with the guys that he is competing with to make the team. He is a new guy so arguably he has to show that he is better, and his likely teammates have to see that he is better. That means he should play in Germany or somwhere in Europe.
This does not seem based in truth.
Munzenburger got chosen for the World Juniors playing in the US. He is a known commodity to the German National team.
Oilers are 4-2 1 ever since playing and beating the ever classy NY Rangers at The Garden.
In the run up to the playoffs this represents a perfectly acceptable record. Once playoffs start there are always paper tigers with super reg season records.
Meanwhile it looks more and more likely Oilers play the LA Kings in the 1st round. Yikes.
This is a math blog – so we can look at the decreasing series values between these two teams in recent playoffs.
2022: 4-3
2023: 4-2
2024: 4-1
Therefore, the projected outcome of the series continuation is – 2025: 4-0
Bring on the Will Ferrells!
A while back I commented on how series went for the Cup champs back to The Blues. In only 4 series out the 24 did the champ have to go to seven games, the Blues have 2 and Oilers 1
So if we go by that the series against the Kings predict a good pattern
I don’t imagine Bowman has any plans to trade Matt Savoie. Bowman acknowledges the need for impact players in ELCs and cheap second contracts and I think he knows this player is ready for a top 6 NHL role.
Only the Oilers can sign Berezkin. Bowman has been express about finding players in the European market and it’s impossible imagine he won’t be looking to sign the legit prospect that he has exclusive rights on.
The question is if the player wants to come over. Every day we don’t hear or read about a KHL extension is a positive day.
I believe he can be signed June 1 (a month later than normal this year).
Hopefully there is a connection with Podkolzin who seems to like it in Edmonton and he could help in recruiting Berezkin
Really shouldn’t be any particular need to recruit.
If the kid wants to play in the NHL, the Oilers are his only option.
A prior connection though not impossible seems unlikely. Berezkin and Podkolzin were born in cities further apart than from Whitehorse Yukon to Halifax Nova Scotia. Berezkin never played for any Russian National teams. Podkolzin played at various levels mostly for St Petersburg teams and Berezkin at various levels in Yaroslavl and usually not at the same level in the same year. It is quite possible they have never played in a game against each other.
Having someone who is from Russia and speaks his language who can tell Berezkin what it is like to play and live in Edmonton could help though. However, would Berezkin be satisfied signing an ELC (I assume that is the only contract he is eligible for currently) where he could end up in Bakersfield making a pretty low salary. At least when Podkolzin got sent down he didn’t have to leave the Vancouver area.
Maybe Berezkin sought out and had a had a chat with Samorukov during some of the Moscow/Yaroslavl games this season about his experiences with the Oiler and Bakersfield.
Of course Berezkin’s teammate for the last 2 seasons, Martin Gernat, could give him some pointers about Edmonton and the Oilers too, though his experience is a little dated. Gernat was drafted by the Oilers in 2011, then came over to play 2 seasons for the Oil Kings to finish his junior career. Spent parts of 3 seasons playing in the Oiler’s farm system (both in Bakersfield and Oklahoma) before being traded for Pat Maroon in 2016. He soon thereafter headed back to Europe.
So why didn’t the Oil put Ekholm on LTIR before the trade deadline? He has not been right for a long time and it would have given them more options at the trade deadline?
….Maybe because they figure they’re in for enough trouble when Evander Kane enters the playoffs perfectly healthy and playing like a tiger.
Wouldn’t help unless he doesn’t play again this season and, as of today, that is not the projection.
I obviously don’t really know for sure, but I suspect that having Savoie make it through the trade deadline as an Oiler that Bowman values this player as well LT. I think he’s safe.
My guess is, that’s the reason the (speculative) Islanders and Hurricanes deals weren’t made, although Carolina seemed to be looking for an actual player in return.
I don’t have reason to not trust Bowman to this point. Meaning if he does trade prospects there will be good reason and not just more bleed out. Hopefully that remains the case
Judging by the seasons McLeod and Savoie are having would you still make that deal? I myself still belief that Savoie will be a poor man’s Brayden Point once he adapts to the speed of the NHL.
NO. Wasn’t that a Jeff Jackson deal? I wish JJ would have just kept his hands off the team and hired a true GM much sooner.
The minute Wright was fired the transition of Jackson running the show had begun. If you think it was Holland who fired Woody-Wright and replaced him with K.K then you’ve never played connect the dots as a kid. Holland was a lame duck and probably pissed his kid wasn’t taking over but for a cool 5 million it’s not hard to take one for the team.
I didn’t think we were talking about Holland. At least Holland was an experienced GM, and they could bounce things off each other before doing something stupid. JJ running the show on his own obviously wasn’t a good look.
Give Jackson and Bowman at least one playoff before giving up on them. Oilers have been playing rope-a-dope all season. If you feel they aren’t on the same playing field as L.A or Vegas so be it. Not saying it’s you but what I find funny from the Oilers troll gang is that as soon as I bring up a substantial wager on say the L.A or Vegas series is they immediately back-off and try to change the subject.
People are blaming Bowman for losing Holloway and Broberg.It was Jackson pretending to be a manager who signed Skinner,and Arvidsson.That left no cap room to sign those two youngsters.Jackson took a team who lost the Stanley by one goal,and tried to make it His team.If he had left it alone they would have been going back.As it stands,we may not get out of the first round!!!
There was indeed cap room to sign both of them to what we all (OK, fine, the vast majority) projected would be their 2nd contract AAVs.
Management never “chose” Arvidsson and/or Skinner over Holloway and Broberg – the plan was for all 4 and it was reasonable with the cap spent.
ONLY issue was offer sheet and we know how infrequent they had been – it was a risk but a calculated risk – it was wrong.
Long run I would take Savoie. Because of the playoff performances for RM and his timidity. He has some talent and the speed, but not my cuppa. They do need to replace him asap and move Henrique to wing. O’Reilly is years away most likely
IMO, they miss RM’s speed, the depth he provided and his PK ability right now.
I would not have made the deal just based on last years performance, never mind the season McLeod is having. And I wouldn’t have signed Henrique, which is what actually pushed McLeod out.
The Oilers had a cost controlled 3C who could score 10 to 15 goals a year, kill penalties, had separation speed and the ability to transport the puck from the dzone to the ozone. And he was young, with lots of potential to improve.
They swapped him for a declining, slower center, who they pay 1 million more, and a promising young winger, who MAY produce more than McLeod. But not this year.
Seemed like a strange move for a team that was all in to win this year.
McLeod has 17 goals this season and……16 hits.
Don’t get me wrong, I was one that valued McLeod more than most but his stylistic game is the exact same as the masses that require truculence and finishing hits.
Don’t get me wrong speed is so very important but come playoff time the ice gets smaller and smaller. I’ll take Arvidsson-Frederic driving to the net over the speed but perimeter play of McLeod-Foegele.
Foegele is not a perimeter player, to my eye.
For those that missed it yesterday, neither McDavid, Ekholm or Skinner are travelling today but each have a chance to join team on the trip.
Frederick (and Kane) are going on trip and Frederick is going to start skating with the team.
All injured players expected back at 100% prior to end of regular season (except Kane).
Confirmed Ekholm’s injury IS something that should heal with rest and be 100% and it’s not certain it will longer in to summer.
I’m not sure how far along Kane is in his recovery, but if he were close to game shape, could the Oilers put Ekholm on LTIR until the end of the season to ensure he’s as healthy and rested as possible and bring Kane back early so he can get some games in? Again, assuming Kane is in game shape.
That’s a good move to keep in your back pocket, if more rest will help EK recover further, and if Kane is available early.
Could but Ekholm is projected to be back before the end of the regular season at 100% – project per coach’s words which, as we know, can change.
The one technicality/issue could be with the league. Listening to those on the inside in and around the deadline and, when deals are made and a team is using LTIR space, they do get scrutinized and the league will (or has the ability) to reject a trade that uses LTIR space if the team may be able to activate the LTIR player and there are no other reasonable avenues to get compliant.
The Oilers would have told the league Kane is not being activated.
Thanks OP! Is there any reporting to say that trades have been turned down by the league because of that? I understand why the NHL would, just interested to hear if they have.
Not to my knowledge (but that doesn’t mean much….)
Note from the W playoffs this past weekend. Gavin McKenna picked up 9 points in his 1st 2 games. Kid is special
I knew McDavid was going to be generational, have and had my doubts about Bedard. This kid is another generational player.
I query if Landon DuPont is also going to be generational. Crazy stuff from a 15 year old d-man.
WHL will be prominent at the top of the next two drafts.
32 Thoughts discussing trophies. Kyle B. would pick the goalie and Friedman has “probably Drai” at his number 1 but hasn’t locked it.
Not in these words but in EST this morning, Dreger implies his vote is currently a toss up between Drai and Connor H.
Prospectidity!
Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law are open for business again tonight. Both acquired apples (1 and 2 respectively) in a Game 1 win.
A scheduling quirk had them off since Thursday, and then play back-to-back today and tomorrow with a venue change in between. (Mind you, Google Maps says it’s only two hours ‘twixt Barrie and Niagara’s barn in St. Catharines.)
Puck drops at 5 p.m. Delia time.
Yes, but you have to get the timing just right. Coming down from Barrie in the morning is busy, and the QEW Niagara is notoriously bad in the afternoon. Could be 4 hours if they leave at the wrong time.
Thank you for the insight. Had to rely on Maps, since my only experience ever in Ontario was a layover at YYZ (insert Rush reference here).
I would assume they make the trip right after tonight’s game unless it goes into multiple OT’s.
Great tune.