Young Hearts Run Free

by Lowetide

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OriginalPouzar

Sure, there is some negative recency bias given how poor Ek was in the playoffs – clearly still extremely hurt with highly limited mobility. 

At the same time, the risks mentioned, injury and age, are real and the second is fact. Ekholm will be 36 when an extension kicks in. To my eye, and this is all eye test, I felt there was some slight regression in his game this past season prior to injury. 

Numbers were good but saw him beat to the inside and beat one on one wide here and there – something we never saw prior (or very rarely). 

Add in the injury risk and that is a material risk. At his age, it’s not uncommon for players to not return to peak form after substantial injury. Also, this was bad groin issue and he didn’t get surgery – are we confident this won’t be a recurring thing?

An extension this off-season, a year in advance, without seeing how he returns from injury and a year out from further age regression puts all the risk on the Oilers unless the AAV is a big cut to his current. 

Expert predictions have hmm in the same $6.25MM range for 2 years. I don’t do that now. I also don’t think he signs for $4MM unless it’s a silly four years. 

The Oilers don’t have a new young 1LD coming but, at the same time, they have an elite play driving 1RD who drives out scoring (even when out there with the bottom 6) who can carry a partner. 

I mean Kulak/Bouchard, in 153 playoff minutes, were 8-2 goals and 73% expected goals. 

They can’t force Ek to be a “legit 1 LD” in to his late 30s. 

I’d love to bring him back if it was a contract that took in to account that he’s likely 3rd pairing for much of it despite how good he has been. 

The cliff could be ugly for a big guy like Ekholm who was only a good, not great, skater to start with.

Last edited 20 hours ago by OriginalPouzar
Scungilli Slushy

Groins are bad juju. Once it happens they tweak easily. With Ek it has been an issue for at least two seasons now. It was part of the issue with the poor starts

Scungilli Slushy

By the team

Reja

What if Tomasek who’s in his prime at 29 blows the doors off in preseason? If his game translates he could be the perfect winger for Leon. Hass-Nygard-Kahun were good Europeans but Tomasek looks more NHL style to me, his highlights are very impressive.

Ancient Oilers Fan

Tomasek is no stranger to North American hockey, having played in the USA U14-U18 then in the OHL for 2 years.

He is the ultimate late bloomer based on his annual stats.

OriginalPouzar

Interesting – I did not know about his teenager experience in North America (and that he played in the OHL). Thank you.

OriginalPouzar

His skating will be key – less room/ability to make plays with slower boots on the smaller ice with faster and bigger (and better) opposition.

Reja

He’s going to be one of the more interesting story lines as I do think he’ll impress early on especially exhibition games.

OriginalPouzar

Perhaps – I mean, I’m not positive he’ll get reps/line rushes with the higher end talent at all unless they truly see him as a real option in the top 6 – lots of options.

He is a “skilled player” but so are many others as well.

Pretendergast

Are we going to freak out like usual at the start of the year when a few of the rookies make galling errors and it takes the team a while to grow with the new hands?

LT dust off the 20 games of runway articles. Hopefully the usual whipping boys Bouch, Nurse, and Skinner take the heat (while actually doing fine) and the young guys get a break.

I’m excited for Bouch complaining to actually make sense now that he’s no longer a 3M defenceman. I’m not excited for Stu complaining even though he’s a 2.6M goalie.

Last edited 18 hours ago by Pretendergast
godot10

For the last three season, it was the veterans making galling errors to start the season.

Scungilli Slushy

And last playoffs. Final, forwards 5v5 by TOI goal share:

CMD 3/8
Drai 4/9
Kane 3/4
Brown 1/3
Nuge 1/3
Perry 3/7
Henrique 1/2
Frederic (hurt) 1/2

The rest 50% or better

Last edited 16 hours ago by Scungilli Slushy
OriginalPouzar

McDavid was very poor in the SCF (overall, he produced a PPG I think but was primarily responsible for around 4 goals over the last couple of games).

OriginalPouzar

I don’t expect Savoie to make that many galling mistakes and don’t expect him to “make the same mistake” twice (see a young Holloway).

I can’t say where Howard’s game might be in this regard – I don’t think he’s as advanced as Savoie.

I do think an strong start for the team would be very helpful to take pressure off the coach and allow him to let the kids work through mistakes and inconsistencies.

Reja

How much of a lock is it for Joshua Samanski to make the Olympic team for the Germans this year? Is he possibly jeopardizing his spot if he gets buried in Bakersfield by a coach that lets say for argument purposes doesn’t like him?

Last edited 19 hours ago by Reja
Pretendergast

Name 13 better/more established forwards. I can do 6 for sure.

Leo
Peterka
Reichel
Sturm
Stutzle
Kahun

After that is anyone’s guess. He’s a giant younger guy who will likely be on future versions of the national team, has played for the Junior team twice, and came through the German system DEL. I think even if a coach hated him, he’s on the shortlist if German hockey is anything like Hockey Canada (traditional route at home vs college players for junior teams eg.)

Grubauer getting named to the team before Peterka would be the only thing to give me pause. If it’s about appeasing older guys he could get squeezed if he got buried in Bako. I don’t think that will happen, just humouring your argument.

Reja

Yes this Bakersfield team will be interesting to follow for many reasons. I didn’t relize how tall at 6 foot 5 Samanski was. Looking at Bowman’s Hawk team he did load up his supporting cast with over 6 foot forwards that had skill and could skate. All of Bickell-Brouwer-Stalberg-Frolick-Saad-Handzus-Hayes-Panik-Anismov were over 6 foot and most of them well over. I know I’m missing a few but Bowman does like bigger skating forwards. It would be interesting to find out what the Hawks average height of Hawk forwards during Chicago’s heyday compared to league average.

OriginalPouzar

I think he’s close to a lock for the team (he’s expected to make it) and being in Bako won’t have any negative effect – its a “better league” than the top German league.

Reja

I never checked his height when they signed him wow 6 foot 5 is tied with Jason Arnott and Bjugstad I believe that’s the tallest forwards all time for the Oilers. I thought Jason Bonsignore was taller but he was only 6 foot 4 Mikko was 6 foot 7 and Stolarz was 6 foot 6. What I’m trying to say is I don’t believe we’ve had a forward that was 6 foot 6 or taller.

Traveller

The Oilers have had 8 forwards who are the tallest listed at 6’5” playing at least 1 game: Arnott, Bjugstad, Dave Brown, Steve MacIntrye, Bogdan Yakima, Brad Winchester, Mike Ware and Alexei Mikhnov. MacIntrye is also the heaviest ever Oiler forward listed at 250 lbs.

Reja

When MacIntrye dropped Ivanans that was and is the only time I’ve ever felt sorry for a Flame.

Traveller

Desharnais at 6’7” is alone in first in that category for defensemen, like Koskinen in his category.

Reja

Thanks I find this fascinating in the dog days of Summer.

Traveller

Since the Oilers joined the NHL in ‘79, only 43 forwards have played at least 1 game that are listed at 6’6”+ and only 20 have played 100 games so far.

Only 20 D in that time at 6’7”+ as well with 10 playing over 100 games. Another 34 at 6’6” with 27 of those getting into at least 100 games.

A few more really tall players are getting in now days but it is still very rare.

€√¥£€^$

Samanski is not 6’5”, I don’t know where HockeyDB got that from, but it’s wrong information. He is 6’3”.

Someone writing at another site said that Clattenburg was 6’5”, not true. Clattenburg is 6’2”.

Maksim Berezkin is listed as 6’4”, but I’ve also seen him listed as 6’2”. For the record, I am not convinced he is actually 6’4”.

Of the prospects that had been in the Oilers’ grasp including Shane LaChance, 6’5” and the similarly vertical Bogdan Yakimov.

The only other taller players the Oilers have in the current prospect pool are forwards Petr Hauser and Tomas Mazura, both 6’4” and Dman Bauer Berry, and all are very unlikely to be signed to NHL contracts, IMO.

Last edited 5 hours ago by €√¥£€^$
Shamus23

It will be nice to see some fresh young legs in that top 9. Both Savoie and Howard have exceptional quick 1st few steps. Both are great on their edges. Frederic is a very good skater for a large man, and we will get to see him uninjured in Sept. Fans will like him at 100%. Pods is a bull in a china shop guy and if he ever learns to shoot more will be a greater offensive asset. But he is good 2 way guy that can skate, hit and plays hard in the corners.
Hope they still trade Janmark and even Henrique if possible. Would definitely rather see Lazar and or Philp on the team. At least Henrique is still really good on the draw and still can pop a few and pk. Janmark is way too expensive to keep for what he adds now. Think he will be traded .
As for the big Swede on D, he has really been injury prone over the last few years with his groin . 2 years ago it hampered him in the preseason and early part of the year and last year most of the back half of the season. I really don’t see the rush in signing him this summer. What if he reinjures it again and misses more time this season? Also he is getting older and how much and how long are they thinking. I am surprised Kulak is not being talked about in resigning. The guy is a rock that plays both sides and always shows up strong in the playoffs. Do they think he will want too much $$$$? For where he fits in.
Do they think Akey will be ready by next year?
As for McD, I still think he signs a 8 year deal just like his best buddy did. I mean if things don’t go good after 2-4 years in, I am sure if he went to management and said trade me, they would oblige out of respect and what he has done for this team and fans.
If the coach sticks to playing these young guys. I think it will be a really fun early season.
New Pp coach may throw in a new face to that usual 5.
Can’t wait

OriginalPouzar

I think that Kulak will be be able to get around $5MM on the market – I mean, a soon to be Cody Ceci just signed for $4.5MM X 4 years and I think Kulak has passed Ceci over the last few years.

We pretty know Walman will be re-signed (likely $6MM to $7MM) plus Nurse. I know Walman will likely play alot of the right side this season but long-term I’m sure its Nurse/Walman anchoring the left side.

I’m not sure they can afford Kulak at the new market price.

Personally, I don’t buy the “can play both sides” – he’s done it recently but has shown to be materially less effective. He can play his off-side to the same extent any other d-man in the league can, in my opinion.

Its hard to imagine Akey ready for next season, at least for me, and I don’t think the org will count on that.

It will be interesting to see where Regula is in 2 months, 6 months (and Akey in 6 months).

Louis Levasseur

I didn’t realize Willy was that young when we traded for him for Boschman. I thought he was near the end. Too bad we couldn’t have kept him longer. Objectively I think Winnipeg won that trade, but both teams filled a need.

Scungilli Slushy

Nice write up LT, a pretty fair assessment

Stan is tied with Lou for the current GMs with the most Cups, and his are more recent. hopefully he carries on making astute moves and rebuilding the org’s depth. And keeps Zito perpetually from #3

Traveller

Lou is no longer a current GM since the Islanders effectively fired him. Another gig seems unlikely.

Stan is tied with another current GM with 3 cups in Ken Holland (and a 4th as AGM). And Rutherford with his 3 cups is not technically Vancouver’s GM right now but the GM working for him probably doesn’t have as much freedom as most.

An LA or Vancouver Cup getting either of these two their next one ahead of Stan would be a bitter pill for Oilers fans to swallow. Right now, Stan seems to have the better shot at it.

Scungilli Slushy

Nice. I did a quick search as busy

OriginalPouzar

Bowman did a great job this offseason of making targeted adds/keeps for experience with upside (Mangiapane, Frederic, even Lazar at league min) but also letting some vets walk for the money to allow room for some young skill, energy and upside to have the opportunity to impact (Savoie and Howard mainly).

The kids are not blocked as we’ve seen in the past but they are also not being totally relied on for large roles. Of course, the expectation is they are ready and help the team but, if they aren’t crushing at 0.7 P/G early, it’s not near a dagger – there is room to let them move through the middle six, find roles, develop, etc.

There are other young players that wont start on the team, but could reasonably pop and help – Regula and Jarventie top of mind.

There are also a couple veteran rookies who we really have no idea on but could be NHL players right away – namely, Leppanen and Tomasek. Who the hell knows on these guys but they have been high end players in very good pro leagues.

Some other decent younger prospects signed for no assets (or cap hit if they don’t make it) in Samanski and Hutson. Not expected to impact the lineup but who knows, maybe one hits soon?

I really have liked Bowman’s approach to keeping the NHL roster full contender and adding a lot of bets to the organization.

Also starting to love the McFarland hire – watching his coaching seminar video’s, this man teaches offence.

Funny Bissonness

There are other young players that wont start on the team, but could reasonably pop and help – Regula and Jarventie top of mind.

I think Jarventie might be the young ‘un I’m cheering for the most. Not because I think he’s the better than Ike or Savoie, just because it would be a cool end to a weird Bourgault Sega if he became a successful Oiler.

OriginalPouzar

For sure – and it would also be a solid “win” for Jackson during his interim GM stretch that is currently not looked upon fondly.

Can you imagine if Jarventie becomes more impactful than Wallstedt? From what I heard on a pod a few weeks back, Wallstedt will be the back-up in the NHL but that’s not on merit considering a real regression year in the AHL last season (still young a very good goalie prospect, but a bad season).

Reja

At 20th pick Wallstedt was the choice you might not get a opportunity to draft a franchise goalie at that spot for decades. Either Oiler scouts told Holland he was a dud or Kenny had no vision.

OriginalPouzar

From accounts, they were going to take Cosa but didn’t have interest in Wallstedt – there was something in their scouting/meetings/whatever that put them off him.

Lots of goaltenders drafted in the middle first round that were not franchise goalies – most.

Lots of goalies drafted in the mid-late rounds that have become franchise goaltenders.

Wallstedt was no more of a “sure thing” than any other pick in the range and, to date, well, his arrows are down since draft day – that could change but that’s where we are today.

iwin76

He had a poor year last year, but up arrows in D+1, D+2, D+3 outperforming more experienced teammates. Regardless of what happens with Bourgault/Jarventie, I think hindsight says Wallstedt was the pick there. Goalies are voodoo but it still seems strange. Evaluating based on what happens after is a challenge, if a mid-round pick wins a Vezina 6 years later does that indicate good scouting or poor scouting?

Scungilli Slushy

He’s pretty young. Aubry says he thinks most goalies need time to round their game out because there is no hiding/sheltering them when promoted

The Oilers did strange things in the draft, which we can see Bowman, JJ and Pracey changing. They didn’t draft goalies enough, or right shot players. Basically the rare and most important positions (because rare) where you usually have to draft the better ones

I don’t know enough technicals to evaluate goalies, but I see them similar to other players in success rates. The best ones at draft age are the best in their cohort in the world. Just like the best skaters, some skill sets don’t translate to the NHL

I think a goalie scout should be able to assess who has the best chance of being a good NHL goalie. Many won’t hit high levels, but neither do most drafted skaters. Teams should also be doing a lot more in development to help them along post draft, given the need for having high end tending, the amount of coaching that’s needed to develop them, which many teams still don’t do

Traveller

Per an article from Sportsnet, from 2010 to 2019, NHL teams drafted ~216 goalies. As of the end of the 2024 season only ~44 played more than 75 games. That’s 1.5 per team from a decade of drafting.

Only 13 goalies that have been drafted since 2020 have played in the NHL, none have played 75 yet, and only 2 have played more than 17 games.

Between 2010 and 2019 the Oilers actually drafted more goalies (10) than all but one team. Stuart Skinner is so far their only draft to play more than 75 games tying them with 9 other teams. To the end of the 2024 season, 9 teams had 2 goalies reach that mark, and 5 teams had 3 goalies make it.

Six teams had no goalies that had played 75 games yet, including Bowman’s Blackhawks who are so far a league worst at 0 for 9 from that decade (all drafted under Bowman). Holland was 1/8 in that decade with Detroit drafting Mrazek who has played over 400 games.

The Oiler still have 2 hopefuls in the system out of 3 drafted by Holland, Day and Jonsson.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/which-nhl-teams-are-best-at-drafting-goalies/

Last edited 14 hours ago by Traveller
Traveller

Chicago does have one promising goalie prospect remaining from Bowman’s drafts. Drew Commesso, selected in round 2 in 2020, has been very good in the AHL with 1 short call up so far.

Reja

It’s only a matter of time before Sam does business with his former team.

rev.hans

Thanks.

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