David Tomasek is a bona fide NHL possibility for the Edmonton Oilers this fall. There’s a lot of conflict in that sentence, but that’s how I’ve boiled down the Tomasek experience. Will he play on a skill line? Will he play? Man, there’s a lot to discuss.
These guys never make it. Well hell, that’s not true. The Oilers drafted a player named David Vyborny in 1993, and ignored him. In 2000, he arrived in the NHL with the Columbus Blue Jackets and played well for seven seasons. Per 82 games, Vyborny posted 17-31-48 for the Jackets.
Tomasek won’t score 50 points. While it is unlikely, Tomasek led one of the best leagues on earth in points last season. He scored 24-33-57 in 47 games. The NHL equivalency is 24-35-59. The NHLE didn’t anticipate the possibility Tomasek could run with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, either. This is a significant player, no matter the outcome.
Why isn’t there more talk about him? Most of us who watch the new player pool for next season populate are focused on the younger players. Tomasek is an older player. That doesn’t mean much when camp starts. Coach Kris Knoblauch may instantly take a liking to what he brings.
Knoblauch has to play the kids! Knoblauch has to win hockey games. Bowman acquired Ike Howard to hurry up the time line. Peter Chiarelli acquired Griffin Reinhart to hurry up the time line. Todd McLellan thought it might be better to play superior and more NHL-ready talent.
So now Howard and Matt Savoie are not NHL-ready? Suspect at least one (Savoie) is and am hopeful for Howard to make it as well. Howard is a first-shot scorer, Edmonton needs one on LW. However, you can’t guarantee youth makes the jump right away.
Knoblauch is too defensive. I have been writing this blog for 22 years. Every coach employed by the Oilers during that time has drawn the ire of fans for slow playing the kids. There are rare examples (Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg) of slow-playing real talent, but Oilers coaches since 2000 have mostly had youth pushed on them, and caved. I don’t think Knoblauch will cave.
I thought you liked the youngsters? Sure do, hope they fill the net and become legend. However, I saw Sam Gagner overwhelmed in his early years because he wasn’t prepared for the war-on-ice that is the NHL. Hell, the Nuge struggled too, when up against guys like Anze Kopitar. This isn’t an easy league. It will take time. Tomasek might be a real find for this team.
How much does he play? I have Tomasek, Savoie and Howard sharing 160 games next season. None of them gets to 82.
You’re fading Savoie? I’m fading youth, and not by a lot to be honest. These young men have a great opportunity, and Tomasek is a fantastic third option. I’m betting they all play.
Are you fond of Swedish players? Yes. Especially the very good ones.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll have plenty of Jays talk (just made a massive trade with Cleveland) and Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will talk training camp stories. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
Not saying it’s a hard target but Levi resigned cheap for Buffalo.
AHL 25-13-4 / 2.20 / .919 / 7 SO.
NHL 2-7-0 / 4.12 / .872
I don’t know goalies but looks like there is potential if the team isn’t a tire fire?
I’ve been watching Levi since the World Jrs. He’s a good bet IMO.
But I also thought the same about Mark Visentin. So what do I know.
Last year we got 63 goals combined from Skinner-Brown-arvidsson-Perry. How many goals will the replacements that cost around a 1/3 less score? Savoie-Howard-Magpie-Tomasek my crystal ball says over 63 goals this with a lot of unknowns attached including a conservative coach. If anyone wants to take under 63 and I’ll take over 63 with 63 being a push for say $250 to a charity affiliated with this blog I’m in but only against one person.
I think Frederic will contribute and suspect we’ll see a spike from Podkolzin in goals should he spend time on the Draisaitl line.
Kane who tried to be physical had the refs finger him for some ridiculous and borderline line penalties like the clean hit on Pietrangelo. Anyhow with the refs all over Kane I thought Frederic would step up and neutralize Bennett and Tkachuk. Frederic was always a day late and a dollar short (injured) Coach K.K needs to put Frederic in a position to succeed especially with the long term contract he received. I’m hoping Frederic pulls a Maroon and scores 20 while being somewhat of a leader.
Connor McDavid needs to and should score more goals. No excuses.
#29 + #97 should equal 110 minimum if #97 pulls his weight.
3 or 4 rookie forwards is alot. Especially for a contending team. I wish Tomasek the best luck but think we will see a couple of these rookies get traded mid season.
There is always a lot more turnover in the entire organization when a G.M takes over a team. From scouts, coaches to top 12 forwards this is becoming a Bowman team. From puck moving D-men to highly skilled fast paced forwards this is looking like the blueprint of the Blackhawks 15 years ago. The only thing missing is a average or better yet above average Goaltenders.
1986 the Canadians had a bunch of rookies (8) notably Roy
2016 penguins had (3)
Rookies bring wobble and you can’t get away with that in the finals.
Gator the new head coach for the Oil Kings.
Always thought he got shafted in Kelowna. 88-44 record over 2 years then the team lost Dube, Lind, and Cal Foote (great junior players at least) and finished 28-32 after firing Gator when they were 4-10.
Coach is only as good as the team in front of him. No clue if the Oil Kings will be good but they have a kid named Jack Toogood so im pretty sure they’re championship calibre.
Agreed. Went to high school with his father. Happy for the success.
At ON that picture of Gator says it all. Utter determination. He looks like Perry in face and gaze. The Oiler leaders need that same determination to win no matter the cost so it goes down the line
Wow! If Bieber at 29 returns to form the Jays have a 1-2 ace starter for the next half-dozen years.
Besides Makarov-Stastny and the other European invasion when the wall came down. When’s the last player comparable to Tomasek had a good season. I can see a D-man or a Goalie at 29 popping in his 1st year in the bigs at that age but as a forward it’s going to be special if Tomasek immediately finds his footing and has the coach and teams trust.
Derek Ryan may be best comparable age & production-wise. Can’t speak to 2-way acumen. That may be the highest hope.
Tsyplakov last year was an effective NHL player.
Panarin was the biggest FA, Kaprizov was in Minny’s system for a long time before coming over.
Tsyplakov popped at the age of 24/25 in the KHL with an NHLe of 48. At 26 with the Islanders he scored 35 points in 77 games last season or 37/82.
Panarin went undrafted but really started to flourish in his early 20s in the KHL and by age 23/24 was 4th in KHL scoring and then signed with the Blackhawks.
Not sure why Kaprizov was a 5th round choice since he had a good junior career and was playing in the KHL before he was eligible for the NHL draft. By age 20 he was already a very solid KHL player and had 3 excellent seasons from age 20 to 23 getting better each year before coming over to the NHL at 23.
I heard an interview with Guerin where he said that shortly after becoming GM in MIN, he called Chuck Fletcher and thanked him for drafting Kaprizov. If I recall correctly, Fletcher’s response was along the lines of he was too good to pass up at that spot in the draft, even if they didn’t ever expect him to come over.
Andrei Kuzmenko
Building career in his early 20’s in the KHL with a big pop at 25. That was followed by an excellent first year in the NHL at 26. Now on his 4th team in 3 seasons, seems to drop off after good starts with teams. Interested to see if that trend continues with LA.
Agreed. His first NHL year really was stunning.
I know NHL equivalencies are talked about to death.
IMO, the biggest challenge for NHLe is the role of the player once they reach the NHL and quality of linemates in the NHL.
Linemates and opportunity make a huge difference on counting numbers.
E.g., Holloway played 4 minutes more a game this season with top six players and his numbers popped.
NHLe’s are a crude tool. Higher the better. That said there is no way to predict how an NHL coach will utilize the player.
The reliability for NHLe for veteran players in other leagues is generally pretty weak. Most of the players transfer from the other leagues to the NHL are younger players. When guys like Kaprizov and Panarin are KHL stars in their early 20s then come over they do well. But these leagues have numerous NHL washouts or aged veterans that become scoring stars when they go over to these leagues. Nigel Dawes is a career KHL scoring star who was below average in the NHL before going over.
There are numerous other examples but just showing a few related ones. Thomas Plekanec, went back to the Czech league after a long career with the Habs. Three seasons ago he scored an NHLe of 36 points at the age of 41. His last full season in the NHL 6 years prior to that was 28 points. That same season in the same league Tomasek scored an NHLe of 30.
In 23/24 Tomasek played with Joakim Nygard (who scored 9 points in 42 games with the Oilers back in 20 and 21). Nygard’s NHLe at age 31 that season was 36 points compared to 42 for Tomasek. This past season again on the same team with Tomasek, Nygard’s NHLe was 29 points. Does anyone think Nygard could come back to the NHL now and score at that rate? If not, why believe that that 59 is a reasonable possibility for Tomasek? It’s not impossible, but it would be an outlier.
However at $1.2 million, he doesn’t need to come close to this to be a worthwhile bet. Maybe he beats the odds and than would be great. And if he doesn’t turn out, as long as some of Bowman’s bets payoff the Oilers will be okay.
Jakob Silverberg who had a long NHL career went back to the SHL this past season. At 35 he finished 4th in the league with an NHLe of 47. The prior 2 full season in Anaheim, he scored only 26, then 19 points. The SHL goal scoring leader this past season at age 27, Oskar Steen, scored 1 goal and no assists in 34 games with the Bruins the prior season.
When 18 year old Elias Pettersson leads the SHL with 56 points, you can put more stock in his NHLe of 62. He scored 66 points in 71 games the next season to win the Calder.
Last season the Oilers set the NHL record for fewest hits in a regular season. That is a soft team.
When the rookies get blasted in the corner this year, who is coming to their aid?
Its a real thing and affects how much confidence a player has and how aggressive they play. A Matt Rempke on this team would do wonders and draw attention, create some space and some respect for the skill play.
I like what the Oilers are doing to get younger and better. But a soft team will not win the cup.
Clattenburg is warming up in the bullpen once he wows them in Bakersfield. Realistically he’s a ways away Stan might try bringing a scruffy player for a PTO
You spelled Fort Wayne wrong
You don’t nurture ELC’s by throwing them to the wolves in the viscous ECHL now do you?
The Oilers had one of the highest hit/game totals in the playoffs.
Oilers had 40 less hits than Florida in one less game played.
So what’s your point?
Twice now I have watched the Oilers defeated by ways they are unprepared for. The reffing will not change. The playoff style will not change.
The Panthers (with other teams watching) have developed a recipe that will neutralize skill, while still having enough talent to score on opportunity.
The Oilers have not solved this problem. Oilers are dam good but appears they are going to roll out the same game plan.
I support younger and faster. I support getting players who can find the net. A fighter is not the answer. Im talking about hard nosed, hard to play against puck battlers.
My point is that it is madness to roll out the same as last two years and expect different results. They know what they will be facing and its not just Florida, it is several teams that will be adapting and mimicking Florida.
Florida played more rugged and it was effective. Neutralized star players. They won the front of the nets. They held the blue line better, and they won a lot of pucks on the forecheck.
Todays blog more about youth and Im all in, but I was thinking how we need to support them and look after them.
In regard to our chances of winning I stated similar opinion in 2023 and 2024.
We had them right where we wanted series tied 2-2 home-ice with the best crowd in the league. Game 5 was such a disappointment hadn’t been that bummed out in a Oiler effort in decades. It was like Florida broke them it was painful to watch. I really thought Edmonton was going to win the Cup one way or another.
One wrinkle is puck possession. You hit more when the other guy has the puck. I foyu have the puck more I would expect you have less hits than when the other team has the puck more… context should impact tthose raw numbers a lot.
Very true, so its not the stat in itself, but Im using it as an indicator. I believe puck possession overall has been dropping has it not? Yet hits are lowest ever? It is a tell.
I felt last season many were coasting back to the playoffs and I understand why.
Getting hit is tiring though.
Injuries came at end of the year.
And there were many games where the team would let infractions slide, simple not bothering with them. They didn’t have the mojo, they didn’t have the response. Zero response.
Connor and Leon manage okay but should they have to? Every night? How about giving them a hand here and get some beef.
The Oilers fandom cycle:
“We need to get tougher”
Gets tougher
No skill
Lose games
Miss playoffs
“We need more skill and less coke machines”
Gets more skill
Wins more games
Makes playoffs
Does not win a cup
“Can’t win the cup if you don’t have toughness.”
Rinse and repeat.
Interestingly enough since the 1967-68 expansion Oilers have been in the Stanley Cup final more than any other team with 9 appearances. That’s pretty impressive considering we didn’t join the league till 1979-80. What ever is in the water in Edmonton is either Champagne or stale piss warm draft.
How did the Canadiens manage to win 10 Stanley Cups since the expansion with less than 9 appearances? Now that’s a really impressive feat.
Oops I meant to say the highest appearances in a cup final of a expansion team since the original 6
9 more finals appearances than the Leafs, who remain at 0 since then.
Edit: “famously”
Jets-Leafs-Canucks-Flames-Sens I believe have a total of 7 appearances and 1 cup between them.
This is silly. You know the recipe is balance of talent, defence, ruggedness. You can predict what to expect in the playoffs. Same as it ever was. You’re out of balance, you don’t win.
Last year, Jim Peplinski gave an interview in which he discussed the several series between the Flames and Oilers in which he participated. In the “glory years” Calgary had a remarkably good team, but Edmonton prevailed in every series they played (except for that awful Steve Smith error debacle – ugh!). One of the explanations that Peplinski gave for why Calgary couldn’t overcome the Oilers was a profound difference of perspective and attitude. He referred to his approach compared to Messier’s approach – I am paraphrasing here “I thought it was a game” he said, “but Messier was on a mission”. It was a life or death commitment for Messier, Peplinski suggests.
Messier’s name is apropos to how he played – his style was messier than anyone else. Slashes, cross checks, elbows to the head, sucker punches, blind sided hits, ferocious bouts of flying fists – you name it, the guy delivered. I think contemporary Messier expresses some regret about how vicious he could be as a player. This is, in my mind, revisionist, retrospective thinking . You can’t argue with success. 6 cups and major individual awards are ultimate successes.
Stanley cup hockey is violent and nasty. Physical intimidation is real, and the team that can impose its will over its opponents is usually the victor. I know that physical intimidation is only one part of the equation (I doubt one could ever win with a line-up of McIntyres) but it is an essential part. I guess the challenge is incorporating the physical dimension without compromising other essential elements (speed, talent, tactics, etc). (Sorry about being long winded – the issue has vexed me for quite some time! 🙂 )
I read that Tomasek is a powerful skater, that is good at faceoff’s and is right-handed, not only that but can help on the penalty kill. That sounds like a well-rounded player. He won’t make the team on merit, sounds like one of those Czech army knives that might come in handy.
I don’t believe that Tomasek has top-6 NHL ability. If his checking game is strong he might be a quality 3rd or 4th line RW or 4C. Basically in competition with Kapanen & Philp.
My reasons for fading Tomasek:
1) He’s only been a ppg player ONCE, in this latest season with Farjestads
2) This recent playoff he put up a mere 2 assists in 6 games
3) At 29 years old he’s at or just past his peak – so don’t expect a continued upward trajectory
Tomasek represents good organizational depth, but he’s not the guy to take a top-6 RW spot. That player is Matt Savoie.
I understand what your saying but Gagner scored 49 points as an 18 year old and was the 3rd highest scorer on the team. Matt and Ike are not 18 years old and have been playing against men already. If those two do as good as Gags it will look like a windfall season for the two.
Gagner had a 44 percent goal share (47 percent expected) in 2007-08. He wasn’t ready.
Savoie had a 65 percent goal share in Bakersfield, the team was 48 percent when he was off the ice (both numbers even strength).
We don’t know about Howard, because he hasn’t played pro.
If you look at Oilers rookies over the years, some adjust quickly but they are either top-5 overall picks or older rookies like Fernando Pisani.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20072008&thruseason=20072008&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
You’re telling me Glencross led the team in 5v5 xGF% and scored 2.99 5v5 P/60 and they let him walk to Calgary.
Oh yes. We were screaming about it at the time.
It’s even crazier that the Oiler’s marketing department understood what we had in Glencross. I distinctly remember an Edmonton Journal advertisement showing Glencross celebrating a goal, and I thought the caption was something like “We’re building something special here”. I was flabbergasted that we let Glencross get away…
Meanwhile vets like Moreau, Reasoner, Sanderson and Stoll had goal shares worse than Gagner and Brodziak was at the same level. And his second season Gagner had a positive goal share.
Gagner was as good or better than any alternative that could replace him on the Oilers roster at the time. Players can and do develop and improve in the NHL. But that team did not have a good culture that helped mentor the young players along well. It didn’t seem like anyone worked with Gagner to get his two way game to improve for several seasons.
Hard to believe that Robert Nilsson had the best goal share among forwards who played most of that season. Yet he somehow kept getting in the coach’s doghouse. Meanwhile Captain Moreau would constantly take stupid penalties at bad times costing the Oilers games and never got in trouble. How did that help the young players?
That team was so exciting to watch I can’t exactly remember the lines was it Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson (kid line) Who was playing with Glenncross was it Brodziak and I believe Storttni may of had time on that line. Lowe was a hard ass he learned from the master Sather. We lost so many players Glencross-Smyth- the Perry Comrie trade all over a few dollars.
Lowe and MacTavish are both very smart and capable. However their work for the Oilers, notably after they got to the cup final, seemed to suffer from a certain amount of arrogance.
Lowe also seemed prone to emotional and/or hasty actions (See his handling/influence on Comrie, Smyth, Penner (wanting to fight Burke), Pronger trade, Souray situation, “I know a thing or two about winning” etc.).
They both deserve tremendous credit for their post playing career commitment to the team under very trying and difficult times. And under the circumstances, right through to the Cup final in 2007, it was a great ride. I have no doubt they both bleed Copper and Blue more than most if not all fans. They have always wanted nothing but the best for the Oilers even if they didn’t always succeed.
I suppose in hindsight, their decisions that impacted the team from 2007 to 2015, some good, many bad, led to the team we have today.
I loved Lowe from that first Goal in Chicago to this day. Lowe said a few things he should of kept on the inside but who hasn’t. His comments on certain topics might have offended some but I give him credit for being honest and basically truthful. As for the Brian Burke incident the more you dive into Burke the more of a fraud-grifter this blow-heart is.
Fun but frustrating.
Gags finally did grow aspects of his game, and is apparently the consummate professional (great model now for the kids), but he was unfortunately the epitome of one year’s experience five times. Hell, ten times. The associated visual with that part of the Gager story is that of Samwise making starfish or snow angels on his back in the slot in front of his own crease.
If you missed it yesterday, here’s an item on Mattias Ekholm:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6521716/2025/07/30/edmonton-oilers-mattias-ekholm-contract-extension-why/
I like what McCurdy the Younger had to say about this yesterday: sign Ekholm for two-year terms until he retires. As he fades, keep him engaged developing young D.