One of the important aspects of evaluating young players in the AHL is correctly projecting them to specific roles. Projecting David Pastrnak was easy a decade ago (what the hell was he doing in the American league???) and Scott Laughton, too. Iiro Pakarinen was off to a hot start, and he was 23. Maybe not room to grow, but possibly an NHL option in a middle-six role? He got a chance, and scored a couple of impressive goals. He was never in danger of becoming a Jordan Eberle replacement.
Pakarinen was a reasonable bet, and would have to be judged as a success. He played 134 games with Edmonton over four seasons. Pakarinen scored 27 goals in 66 Bakersfield games, and delivered 10 in his NHL time with the organization.
I think it’s important to separate the “skill” forwards from the “complementary two-way forwards” when discussing minor-league teams. Sometimes the projections will be out of time with reality (Tyler Pitlick) but most often we can identify the skilled kids.
If the skilled kids are playing a pure offensive role in the AHL, chances are they are playing in the best league they’ll ever reach. Matthew Savoie was an outlier, from the David Pastrnak family of hockey players. These young men are destined to reach higher ground.
Bakersfield’s skill forwards next season (among the signed group) include Quinn Hutson (23 goals in 38 Hockey-East games), Viljami Marjala (44 assists in 52 Liiga games), Matvey Petrov (nine goals in Bakersfield, his pure talent suggests he could double that total), Roby Jarventie (52 points per 82 AHL games, 22 in his most recent 24 games in the league), James Hamblin (19-26-45 in 51 games one year ago with the Condors), Noah Philp (19 goals in 55 games in 2024-25).
There’s a truth about all of these players, perhaps save Jarventie. They are in a ‘pool’ of AHL talent that could get them NHL employment for 134 or 268 games (that’s one or two Pakarinens) if things break right.
However, there are things about their games that will keep them from the NHL this fall. Hamblin has speed and AHL scoring skill, but lacks NHL size and has not delivered offense during NHL auditions.
Philp has goal-scoring ability, PK experience, size and reasonable speed. He qualifies as a skill player, while also bringing enough bullet points on a resume to find his way in the NHL. Among the group listed above, with Jarventie the acknowledged outlier in the group, Philp is my pick to play at least one Pakarinen in the future.
Most of the skilled men will be passed by men like Philp. His range of skill, and his progress in the AHL, is the template for conversion from minors to majors.
If we make a list of forwards who came out of the Oilers draft after the first round (since 2012), played a significant number of games for Edmonton’s AHL team over the last decade, then played 134+ games in the NHL, we would have a list two deep.
Jujhar Khaira, Ryan McLeod. One was a rugged center with size, the other a speed demon with skill. Do you see anyone like that above? Jarventie may well make it if he can stay healthy. For Hutson, Marjala and the rest?
History recommends they make an impression early. And often.
I might be stating the obvious but I wonder if Leon’s Dad had anything to do with Samanski signing? I’m really excited about our farm squad as Bowman has brought back Hope. There is at least a chance Bowman may have found 2-3 hidden gems through hard work of his entire team and vision of the scouting staff.
Many are a bit down on Philp.
I probably am from where I was a year ago (a BIG booster based off the second half of his rookie pro season).
He showed so well early but never really ran with it when he did get his games. At the same time, he didn’t get a ton of opportunity and he was fine in his NHL games.
I still think a run of 25 games at 4C (or even RW) playing 10-12 with some depth PK work will tell us what he will be and it may be a really solid player.
I’m fine with the Lazar signing but I hope the staff and management truly give Philp and chance and don’t default to the smiling vet.
The more I think about it, the more I really think it makes sense that Janmark is the contract being moved out before the season that Stauff is taking about. He says it’s not Henrique.
I wonder if Marjala has a “better chance” than Hutson? A bit younger, a bit more pedigree (he was drafted), bigger, has been playing pro……
Should we include Samanski in this group of skilled forwards?
LT… this whole series you’ve been sharing with us is quite fascinating to me. I think the question I’ve been considering posting for a couple weeks really does need to be asked with the data you’ve provided today. Be warned, I’m going to screw this up, but hopefully not too badly.
Aside from our disappointing list of two above since 2012. Maybe remove this data for the question.
I think the easiest way to ask is if you had a new NHL team that didn’t need to play games until it was full of actual drafted NHL players, how long would it take?
So LT’s theory is two players per draft which is fair. For rounding we’ll say 20 players, so that’s 10 years to complete the team. Enter McDavid and Draisaitl in years say 5 and 6. How many Parkinens need to be replaced after 134 or 268 games, be NHL ready and fill that position. Of course for this LSD exercise we have to assume there’s draft order (rounds 1-7), NHLE, draft by position, best available etc. and for now no trades and the team is full. Also by full I mean that we have a heart of the team by position in LT’s system which I believe is top line, 2C (29), top pair and goalie (correct?). Enter percentage to actually cover the bet in the draft round.
So how many failures would there be by year 10, the season is about to begin. Making matters worse, 97 and 29 are done their ELC but doubtful to ever be replaced. Now we need to build/replace the players exiting after what 12 seasons (574 games) by position? This in my opinion is the hardest part in the exercise. Example Klefbom has a career ending injury, 30% of 1st round picks make it but next years draft you had wanted to fill the 3C role. Big F’n problem.
If you’ve followed so far (your IQ is well above 70), in my opinion it’s almost impossible to build a team through the draft from LT’s posted information over the years and specifically recently. Realistically the last team to perhaps come close is the Oilers entering the League.
Now enter NHL trades. Draft and develop, we all agree. 10 years in, how many players are on your team that were drafted. I suspect its at best for any team 40% draft, 60% trades. Tough sledding to build a team through the draft and have them fill those shoes (position, skillset, games played, and assuming no injuries).
Thanks for listening, looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue, time for another coffee.
Pakarinen had a major league shot I’m surprised he didn’t score more but he just didn’t have that half second more time to get it off.
I liked that ad where he body checked a zamboni. That was one player I wanted to make it. Hard nosed Finns with skill are a fave of mine. To me the most like Canadian players
I agree about the Finns I do also see the Germans coming on as a no flair hard nosed players to play against.
I don’t think we know yet how Bowman views the farm club. In terms of what he sees as the priority, does he care how good it is?
We have seen the A club disabused by the various GMs. I used to be more interested in the prospects, but after so little success with developing better than replacement level NHL players, and so many having been dealt by Holland and before, I only get jazzed by a few
Bowman acquires a pretty wide range of players. Some of Bowman’s prospect acquisitions to me have a very small chance of even making the NHL, because they are smaller and/or like the Finnish D Leppanen are known as one way players. Or have the boots issue. The playoffs, especially later, are not kind to those players
The early acquisitions to me were players that had pretty solid NHL chances. Savoie is small, but he was a 10th pick, high end abilities. The later ones are more iffy or low chance to me. Perhaps the idea is get talented players and make the Condors a really good team, and maybe get lucky with a long shot prospect, or not
Guys like Samanski, Jarventie to me have a high chance (if healthy) because they have all of the NHL tools, but many of the players I see as long shots will probably do well at the AHL level and help the team.
Curlock thinks Akey will have some kind of NHL career because of his skating, I don’t see a great chance of him being a top 4, or not for long. He and Leppanen are the same size, I don’t think Akey has high end enough skill to offset his lack of NHL size. Those D types don’t impact in the NHL, and cling on to mediocre or worse careers if they even stick. Leppanen’s skill was really top end last season in that league, it might translate and that would cover the size bet. But I wouldn’t put any units on that
There were quite a few small D drafted a few years ago when the lemmings were chasing ‘modern defensemen’ because Makar is so good. Just like when teams like our Oilers were Lucic hunting, chasing real outliers. Most of those small offensive D have not panned out, and we see the lemmings have cooled their jets drafting them, at least with higher picks
Acquiring undersized skill makes sense if it’s about bolstering the Condors, just getting the most talent you can for them, like Hutson for example. It doesn’t make sense if it’s about the Oilers in any serious way, we’ve been down that road, and also down the coke machine trail. I hope we’re not heading back to wasting assets on players with low odds of helping the big club
I agree with this.
If you cross your eyes hard and for long enough, we might be thinking similarly today.
The Bakersfield situation in one question.
Can one envision the Bakersfield coach as a future NHL coach?
Q.E.D.
I’m less concerned right now about Chaulk. Bowman has my trust because he has been balanced and active. If it’s a bad fit he will make a change, but he won’t until there is someone he sees as an upgrade, which is the right plan
Looking forward to how the roster shakes out to start the season in Bakersfield.
Hutson, Samanski and Jarventie are the kids I’ll be watching for opportunity.