Rookie crops don’t have enormous impact in their freshman seasons (most of the time) but can have enormous impact in the ones that follow. For instance, the 2002-03 group above is one of my all-time favourites, bringing Ales Hemsky and Fernando Pisani to the Oilers. Jason Chimera was also a delight, as he fired pills past Edmonton goalies for fun in what always appeared (to me) to be a giant eff U from player to management.
PONDERING
The Hockey News came once a month, so you had to pace yourself. The inside cover offered the table of contents, so I would race to the Boston Bruins (“Orr’s surgery successful, should be ready for the season”) and to the draft portion (“Montreal drafts five in 1974’s first round”) but you couldn’t gobble it all up in one day. The California Golden Seals article was always a catastrophe (“Seals could be spending final summer in Bay area” or “No television or radio games for Seals in 1974”), but the WHL was a highlight (“Tiger Williams sets penalty record”) and I read two articles a day until complete, then read it again cover to cover. And then again.
What I really wanted was an interactive edition of The Hockey News, where I could ask why Bob Hess wasn’t developing and why Bobby Leiter looked 90 and why Oakland’s top rookies always fell flat in year two. And you know what? It finally arrived, with the internet and the various places we interact. Thanks, Al Gore!
THE 2015-16 ROOKIES
- Total Rookies of Interest: 10
- 2015 Draft Notes: Edmonton picked Connor McDavid No. 1 and everything changed. Despite a difficult rookie season (injury), there was absolutely no doubt about McDavid’s stunning talent.
- Best Player as a Rookie: Connor McDavid. Only the one play against Philly’s Manning derailed a dream campaign.
- Second Best Player as a Rookie: Brandon Davidson gets the edge, the young defender had a fantastic rookie season.
- Oldest Rookie: G Anders Nilsson was 25. He was effective for the team in a backup role, actually getting most of the starts at early points in the year. Nilsson would be traded to St. Louis at the deadline.
- Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Nilsson play 26 games, that’s significant. Iiro Pakarinen, 24, also played quite a bit.
- Most Unusual Story: Griffin Reinhart was acquired at great expense and the organization whiffed completely in regard to his being NHL-ready. He still hasn’t established himself as an NHL player three years later.
- Longest NHL careers. Connor McDavid will be fast at 50. His career is going to be a monster.
- Anything Else? The sheer number of defensemen who arrived in a single season (Darnell Nurse, Davidson, Jordan Oesterle, Reinhart, Adam Clendening) was well above average. The quality of this crop remains to be decided.
THE 2025-26 ROOKIES
- Total Rookies of Interest: 6 if you include all freshmen
- 2025 Draft Notes: The Oilers didn’t draft until late, but I do like Tommy Lafreniere and David Lewandowski.
- Best Player as a Rookie: Matt Savoie gets the nod here. I do believe Ike Howard has a chance to eclipse him due to possible role, but Savoie has the odds (about 70 percent) on his side.
- Second Best Player as a Rookie: My projections have Howard and David Tomasek both playing in 50 games. The future belongs to Howard, but this season both men are candidates.
- Oldest Rookie: Tomasek is 29,Noah Philp will be 27 opening night. They won’t qualify for the Calder, but could help in their first full NHL season.
- Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: I have Tomasek at 50 games, Philp 32.
- Most Unusual Story: Ike Howard should be in Lightning camp talking about his second NHL season this fall. It’s a strange way for player and team. In these days of beauty and wonder, there is no reason for a team to lose an entry player . Silly. Oilers paid dearly for him, but Howard was a strong get for Tampa Bay. That has to hurt.
- Longest NHL careers. Savoie. Always bet on the boots.
- Anything Else? Savoie and Howard lead the way, I’m also interested in Roby Jarventie, Alec Regula and Quinn Hutson. Like most Oilers rookie clusters this century, it isn’t what these rookies will do as rookies, it is what their peak levels will look like.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation, and we’ll talk about the rookie crop for these Oilers in the season to come. Elks, Stingers, Jays and NFL too, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440.
Stauff says to remember the name Alec Regula – I think most in this community knows that. He also mentions Cam Dineen as another dman that would be able to step in if necessary.
Did not mention Leppanen.
Stauff thinks the Oilers need to be relentless in upgrading their organizational depth at goalies. Does bit like Tompkins at 3G. Whether that is via the waiver wire or making a trade before then (outside chance) or, if Skinner flounders, a bigger move.
— still a long time to season starts but would be surprised if they go into season with same goalie tandem again: anyone else kind of surprised?
Nope. Not surprised.
“First, do no harm”.
Chiarelli failed that test many times. Holland failed that test occasionally. Jackson, big stinking F last summer.
Be patient it’s going to happen within a month.
— I can’t imagine they go into season 3 of cup run with the same tandem.
— there’s still a month and maybe they wait to trade deadline if they can’t land one
— surely management isn’t “of all the things we need to improve goaltending isn’t one of them”
Bowman’s been working every angle. He’s always had above average goaltending in Chicago. I myself didn’t give Pickard enough credit as a career back-up at best he saved our regular season and then again in the playoffs. It’s a tough spot for Bowman as I think Skinner has negative value even at his value village 2.6 mil contract. Bowman only has to find 1 G.M in the bottom half of the league willing to part with proven potential for Skinner contract year potential.
Stauff said something could happen on the goaltending by the trade deadline but he did mention the possibility of a waiver claim or a trade.
A waiver claim would be interesting – likely DiPietro (although they may waive Korpisalo) or Daws but it would mean having to expose Pickard. It adds risk but also upside.
Man, I would have lost money on Chimera having the most games played from that crop. I played against him in ball hockey once – what an athlete. A beast on the ‘rink’. And despite putting up 7 points, was a team player and humble.
He was so choked when Edmonton moved him. He’d just bought a share at the golf course we both played at and was looking forward to a long run there. Solid player.
Cogliano had 24 goals 26 assist in 38 games in his final season at Michigan those numbers are almost exact with Howard 26 goals and 26 assists he had in one less game at Michigan State. Cogliano looked good in the World Juniors just as Howard did. Both these players have speed to burn with Howard having the better shot and Cogs having a edge in the wheels. Cogliano slide right in and scored 18 goals in his rookie campaign in more of a dead cap era and with lesser linemates. 18 goals is a good over-under marker for Howard. I myself will be bullish on Isaac and take the over. Anyone that thinks they are going to bury Howard in the AHL because that’s what our predecessor would have done has gotten into Kenny’s electric lettuce stash.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he started the season with a brief stint with the Condors. But if he can jump right in all the better.
I’m super pumped to see if his trigger release shot translates into a scoring machine playing with Connor. If he gels with Connor&Hyman they could form the highest scoring line in the league.
Eric Tulsky and Tyler Dellow appear to be playing 3D chess while the rest of the league is still playing checkers.
The Hurricanes are drafting scads of Russians including 3 goalies, 8 defensemen and 12 forwards who are on the Hurricanes non roster reserve list.
The Hurricanes can keep their rights until they turn 27 absent an agreement between the KHL and NHL.
This allows Carolina to keep them developing in Russia and will only be signed if/when they are NHL ready.
The most recent example of how this works is 23 year old left shot defenseman Alexander Nikishin who was just signed to a 2 year entry level deal and projects as a first pairing D despite being drafted in the third round.
https://puckpedia.com/player/alexander-nikishin
Super agent Dan Milstein appears to be assisting in this effort and explains the strategy and how it saves the Hurricanes millions and with the added development time, allows them to make better decisions about the players.
https://x.com/Uggg_uggg/status/1949885945513382328
The Carolina Overrateds who will never win a thing? No.
Well, Tulsky has only been GM for 2 years with Tyler Dellow as AGM for 1.
Fascinated to see where they take the team.
Seems a bit premature to be awarding them the smartest managers in the league for doing something different that has not paid any dividends.
Also seems to me that the management group of the Canes is often cited as ahead of the rest with their unique methods but yes its just good enough for 8-9 playoff wins, sometimes less, never more.
Interesting strategy. I like analytics, but after years of following it and the unwarranted hype around certain players and GMs that ended up not working out, I have a wait and see attitude
In particular the hype around Dumas and Chayka turned me off. Both are/were duds as GMs, and as I read them what they are great at is self promotion. I don’t like precocious climbers
Of course the opposite is just as bad. What I see as best is experienced hockey people that want to be informed by more inputs – analytics. Tulsky and Dellow aren’t hockey people, they like hockey and have math skills, as I see it. Good for them going from blogging to a job, we’ll see how it works out
Right now I see analytics as being most helpful in finding under valued NHL players, or players that are close to the NHL, and in understanding what to value more when deploying a system
Dellow has nothing to do with the creation or execution of this strategy. Carolina has been doing this since at least 2019 when they hired a Russian Scout permanently on their staff. Dellow has been with the team for just 1 draft, this past season and is in charge of analytics on which he would have virtually no data for any Russian juniors.
Hard to say whether even Tulsky was an original driver of this strategy either. He has been with the team for several years, but has only been the GM for 15 months and 2 drafts. His prior roles were more analytics focused. Even in the video, it was mentioned Milstein pitched the idea to the team owner (so Carolina didn’t even come up with the idea themselves) and Don Waddell would have been involved the decision to move forward with it.
Certainly, it appears Tulsky is sticking with the idea, but Dundon, the owner, may still push it because of the cost savings. Too early to tell if it will pay off given the strategy has so far only had one of those picks play any games (2) for them.
Tulsky was promoted to VP of Hockey Management and Strategy in 2018.
It’s a pretty good bet his fingerprints are all over this in conjunction with Dan Milstein as noted in the original post.
The first payoff might have been drafting Pyotr Kochetkov in 2019.
The Hurricanes backup, whose agent is none other than Dan Milstein, spent 3 seasons ripening (for free) in Russia before signing an ELC in 2022.
(116 NHL games and counting)
However, the proof of concept may lie in the aforementioned Alexander Nikishin who the Hurricanes drafted in the 3rd round in 2020.
Nikishkin, a 6’4:” 220 pound defenseman has been mentioned as a possible Calder Trophy candidate along with former teammate Ivan Demidov who was drafted 5th in the 2024 draft by Montreal.
Interesting that Demidov’s best KHL season was last season when he scored 19 goals and 49 points for St. Petersburg SKA.
Nikishkin scored 17 goals and 46 points from the blue line and in fact, in the prior season, led the team with 17 goals and 56 points.
If Carolina can acquire an NHL goaltender and a legitimate top pairing D from the second and third rounds while not gambling development time or money seems like it might well be a worthwhile endeavour.
And with the sheer volume of prospects ripening in the KHL there could very well be more.
Well you dropped defending Dellow like a hot potato. And again Milstein didn’t mention Tulsky’s name in the interview you posted. You make it sound like VP Hockey Management and Strategy is a big position but 3 years later he was promoted to AGM (in 2021). He probably had very little to do with Amateur scouting. Even Milstein went on about the cost saving of this strategy which was apparently a big deal to Dundon. He is the one who said exploit this potential inefficiency on Milstein’s advice.
I overlooked the goalie position in looking at who has played for the team.
Your opinions certainly are “dashing”! You seem like quite a whiley or “fox”-y guy!!
Do you collect “silveeeerrrrr” coins? Huh?
Hey Andrew. I see you’re back. Hope you’re faring well.
DSF for sure
Matt Savoie – his offensive pedigree is just as high as Howard’s and he’s produced in a tough pro league against men. Also a more advanced 2-way game and likely to help on the PK
Going to go off the board and say Regula
Tomasek is the each choice as its highly likely he plays games. If we want to go with “Calder candidates”, I’ll add Leppanen as they might want to give him a shot on the left side over Dineen or Stilman if his offence is translating to North America and he’s learning structure.
Ya, gotta be Tomasek
Regula and why the Bruins waived him as opposed to just keeping him on non-roster IR with no cap hit like the Oilers did. I have to presume they thought he’d play in the AHL but I don’t think the Oilers would just be able to stash an acquired player like they did if he was cleared to play.
Savoie and Howard.
I love how many “zero risk” “good bets” that Bowman has brought in. Tamasek, Leppanen, Regula, Hutson – all potential options to play this season (although I need to see something from Hutson before I believe it).
The Howard trade was exceptional. He didn’t give up potential (Howard is the higher offensive upside player, he didn’t take more risk (SOR is not any more of a lock to make it notwithstanding good 2-way maturity in the CHL), he sped up the NHL ready timeline and likely gained a year of ELC in the NHL (SOR will likely be in the AHL for the first year of his ELC).
Adding some young potential for the future as well – Samanski and Carfangna.
With every Oilers Now episode, it becomes more and more clear that Janmark will likely not be in the roster.
We know Stauff has been adamant they will move out a contract before the start of the season and with the full trade protection it’s not Henrique.
He has also mentioned Janmark and then said “something has to give cap wise”.
Yesterday he is talking about PK forwards and changing PK style and mentions Janmark in a group with Foegele, Brown and McLeod as far as lost speed and quickness on the PK.
Have you heard any intel on the health of Ekholm?
I have not.
Savoie, Howard locks to play games as true rookies.
Tomasek likely to play as an old rookie. No lock but likely.
Is Philp still a rookie? He should play games. Hopefully to start the season.
Jarventie and Regula likely to play games as call ups if they are healthy.
Leppanen a chance but a wild card.
Hutson and long shot for me.