I write this item about once a year, always tempted to call it ‘don’t fall in love with a dreamer’ but never do. If you’ve decided an uncertain Oiler, or a distant bell is going to make the Oilers roster, I encourage you to hold back your water. We don’t know what we don’t know, and what we do know (Kris Knoblauch is a button-down, risk-averse, coach) suggests favoring the veterans over the kids. Let’s have a chat.
CERTAIN OILERS
Man you run these tired old graphs out every year and there’s never any imagination. Oilers fans deserve more inspiring ideas! Perhaps the disconnect comes from your misunderstanding the purpose of certain, uncertain and distant bells. These are the names I believe Knoblauch will dress opening night, absent injuries or trades (or a massive step into the elevator shaft by a veteran). This shows that the roster is about 70 percent known at this time.
Are you sure about Savoie? Yeah. They cleared the decks for him and I can see the rookie playing with (at times) Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as his center. In the most extreme opening night roster, he gets the No. 3 right-wing job with (I believe) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as his center. Savoie is part of the future, unless a deadline trade of great significance pops up.
Vasily Podkolzin and Andrew Mangiapane combined for 22 goals last season, and you have them on the top two lines. Fail. Fail blog! Podkolzin with Draisaitl went 2.17 points-60 at five-on-five in about 500 minutes. I think that’s worth running back, at least often enough to make it part of the shuffle. Podkolzin fits Draisaitl’s game well. As for Mangiapane, in 2023-24 (at five-on-five) he hit 2.32 points-60 with Elias Lindhom and if he plays with McDavid I believe that number could be left in the dust this coming season.
UNCERTAIN OILERS
More addled thinking here. Ike Howard is a lock for the team. I think he makes it but it isn’t guaranteed. If the young man comes to camp and struggles, the best thing in the world for him is to start in Bakersfield. The Oilers can’t lose this player, he is too important. It’s a poke from college level to NHL. He does the toughest thing in the game (score goals) but Ike Howard needs to walk before they make him run. No hurry, no fail.
Who will Knoblauch check down to? Mattias Janmark? The coach might run a left wing depth chart of Mangiapane, Podkolzin, Trent Frederic and Janmark. That isn’t out of the range of possibles based on this careful coach.
Man I hate it when you smoke the drapes. Look, everyone wants the kids to play, and thrive. However, that doesn’t have to happen opening night. Janmark is safe. I agree he’s vulnerable, but the GM hasn’t traded him yet. Janmark could make the team and Howard could start in Bakersfield. That’s my opinion, but I don’t believe it’s outside reasonable.
DISTANT BELLS
Is there anyone on this list you see playing in the NHL in 2024-25? You always start with the defense, because 11 or 12 guys could play. So, Cam Dineen is a real candidate, and maybe Riley Stillman too. If Beau Akey thrives? Maybe a cup of coffee. Up front, James Hamblin has done everything asked in the AHL and lacks only scoring ability when he’s in the NHL. I also think Quinn Hutson could find his way via strong Bakersfield work and some luck. I’m flummoxed by Viljami Marjala’s numbers and if he’s real then maybe there’s a place.
Speaking of a family affair: Tyson Beukeboom, daughter of Jeff, is competing for Canada at the Women’s Rugby World Cup going on right now in jolly old England.
With the additions of Savoie-Frederic-Howard-Mangiapane-Tomasek-Lazar-Jarventie I’m starting to see a theme of hard on the forecheck players. To be be effective you need players that can skate. Also with more speed especially on the outside we should be able to draw 15-20 percent more penalties. If this team can’t score collectively ar least 300 goals then we need a Coach with more vision.
In the past seasons, 5 teams have scored more than 300 goals in a season. There was not one team to score 300 last season and only 2 teams over 280. Oilers were one of the teams.
I would say that the expectation being 300 goals is highly unrealistic, is it possible? Sure, but not a realistic expectation. 275 or so is probably more the realistic.
Sly & the Family Stone. I was 12 when I saw the Woodstock movie. It blew my mind. The most vivid memory? Sly Stone with long-fringed sleeves, exhorting everyone to “take it higher!” He created a beautiful band in a troubled time, eventually succumbing to his own troubles, undoing that beautiful family affair.
It is nice to look at the roster options & not have a concern that JF Jacques has to be put in the top 6, or that Petrell is going to a be a PP1 stalwart.
This may also have been the first year in a long time where bottom 6ers weren’t gifted big contracts in July. Lots of competition throughout the line up for good players to contribute, but no desperate need for luck to fill a gap.
If a young man with some size, embraced 12-14 minutes of work every second day.
During those 14 minutes;
body checked 4x a night
chased every loose puck
backchecked hard every shift
blocked 2 shots a game
drove the blue paint everyshift
glove washed two opponents a game
put his team’s result first
He could earn 5x what his mom or dad make for 40 hours of work.
or he could go work as an assistant junior B coach in small town Alberta for $35,000/year.
Coach K.K is not a Bowman hire. Stan is doing a mini rebuild on the front end with youngsters. Coack K.K better get on the same page or else he’ll find himself in the same line as Woody at the bread bank. Howard and to a lesser extent Savoie are going to get some massive pushes as Bownan has banned the usage of the word marinating and the term we don’t have time to learn on the job.
Knoblauch has been Oilers coach for two seasons, made the final twice. He has earned the roster he believes in. I also believe both men will get a push, but that doesn’t mean they both have feature roles opening night. That would be unwise unless they show well in preseason. Savoie has the inside track, the GM flushed the veteran competition. Howard? Not so much. Janmark is still here. We’ll see.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The Coach always goes before the G.M. The regular season and playoffs are 2 seperate animals. What concerns me of K.K is that our Goals for have come down 2 years in a row being down a whopping 66 goals off the pace of 2 years ago. Enough with the 2-1 regular season wins turn the boys lose if Skinner and Pickard need to be babied to the point that McDavid and Leon have to be muckers then Do something Bowman. We should be the highest scoring team in the league only 26 goals by McDavid is a crying shame. You know as well as I do how fast the window can slam shut for decades and decades if things go South.
Obviously I have lots of time for Podz to get some 2LW minutes with Drai but I also have lots of time for him to being a very strong 3rd liner.
He ended up with 10 points in 22 playoff games and played more than half his time away from Drai. Also, importantly, he went 8-3 goals in the playoffs away from Drai. Point here is he thrived in a bottom six role and he also showed that he has some further room to grow in his offensive game.
Another player with versatility to play up and down the lineup.
If I remember correctly, away from Lars Eller, he had fantastic numbers and they cratered with Eller – I think that’s what we figured out earlier in the summer.
In any event, just looking at his traditionally numbers, aside from the 35 goal year, he seems to be a 15-18 goal guy, year after year after year.
I’m fairly certain he’ll start in the top six but, ultimately, I think he likely slots best as a very good 3rd liner and here is hoping that the more “dynamic” young players, over the course of the season, solidify spots in the top 6.
What I do expect from Mangiapane is solid and steady veteran 2-way play and tenacity on the forecheck – shift after shift – something Arvidsson never gave us – we never knew what he was going to give us from shift to shift let alone game to game.
Thank you for the updated depth charts LT.
I can’t wait to see how the Condors roster looks to start the season.
I think it’s going to be the most interesting Condors team in years.
A plus is that versatility. I’m not sure if he’ll get 1RW time with McDavid (although I guess if Hyman misses games its an option) but I think he has the perfect skill-set to play 2RW with Drai but also can be a very effective 3RW with any of Nuge, Frederic or Henrique as the center.
I agree he is all but certain – it would be shocking to me if he wasn’t in the opening night roster – a hell of a year in the AHL, solid all-game development.
Tomasek showing well at camp could put himself in the conversation for a top 9 RW spot as well…..