I wrote this passage on the blog on October 1, 2023. Brandon Sutter was released and retired later that day. The Oilers ran a dizzying array of centers opening night 2023, with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan McLeod taking most of the faceoffs. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark took five or less, and the coaching staff ran some variation of eight lines for at least two minutes at five-on-five, no unit more than 6:28.
Stan Bowman worked around the edges of the waiver wire effectively last regular season. In adding Kasperi Kapanen, the GM brought in a speedy winger who could do some things the older, slow wingers could not do. He was rewarded with playing time, including playoffs, and won a contract with Edmonton this summmer.
I’m mostly about the prospects, so was cheering for Matt Savoie or Raphael Lavoie (before the waiver tree) in that role. I cheer for Noah Philp at center on the fourth line this fall, I cheer for Savoe and Howard on the wings, and I cheer for Samuel Jonsson to impact the AHL and later the NHL (although not this year, that’s a bridge too far).
NHL coaches and management are looking for plug and play types. Kris Knoblauch will be prepared for growing pains of youth and inexperience, but there won’t be many unproven players.
It’s a difficult situation for the coach of a team trying to win it all. Hell, it was tough when Tom Renney was trying to find spots for Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark 15 years ago. The club lost Paajarvi after a promising start and whiffed completely on Omark.
So if the Oilers do use the waiver wire, or sign a PTO, it’s important to recognize why. As much as we’re all cheering for Noah Philp, Stan Bowman needs to find a solution for No. 4 center, and ideally that solution is right handed.
Do not expect a pile of rookies to open the season. It might be two. It might be one.
On the Lowdown today, I’ll be joined at 1pm by Corey Pronman at The Athletic to discuss the state of the Oilers prospect pool. The rest of the show will be the young guns roundtable, with Declan Krueger and Donovan Paulson joining me for a unique sports word salad. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
Font sizes and aging…
At first glance, I had read “Do not expect a pile of cookies to open the season. It might be two. It might be one.”
Agree again on most of the LT wisdom passed along today. Thanks again good sir.
– I think Howard & Savoie will be the only rookies making the team. And that’s only if either one actually does make the starting roster. My guess…both make it unless there’s a winger signed. Why? Because when you take those 2 out of the starting lineup…who replaces them? Management is playing it very risky here.
-Kaps was an amazing signing. He was leaned on in the playoffs by this coach…and scored a series winner. I can guarantee you this is the guy taking Savoie’s top-6 mins this year if there’s any available.
-For the 10th time…Klim “The Klubber” Kostin…PTO…signed now please. We are now being officially ranked as one of the teams that got the “weakest” this off-season. Can’t have that in today’s game.
-Noah Philp can handle 4th line mins with vet wingers. Hoping they can find a way to trade Henrigue during the season for an upgrade elsewhere.
We’re getting closer….and closer….
1) That’s quite the statement on Kapanen who was healthy scratched many times during the regular season, on merit as he was the worst defensive forward on the team. No doubt he had a great 3-4 games when he got in to the playoff lineup but his game fell off after that.
I like the idea of what Kapanen can be but, unfortunately, he’s that player about 15% of the time – close to a decade of NHL tells us this.
I think he’s over-capped by $500K, is likely in the press-box more then the top 6 and is a Jarventie pop away from waivers.
Just me though, could be wrong
2) I see no need to bring Kostin in – I like his time in Edmonton and loved his 20% shooting percentage heater but he’s been a replacement level (if that) player since he left Edmonton and would be battling Max Jones for 16F.
IIRC Klim doesn’t like to fight. He will, but. Similar to Pod
i could see a role as a 4th liner if he could do PK or something. Panthers have a heavy 4th. But I think guys that can play are a better option than tough plugs. Unless you know that you’re going to play the top 9 a lot and want that
Klim was a poor defensive player when he was here (and has been shredded in goal share and expected goal share every NHL stop except Edmonton (and was under-water in expected goals here as well) and has never PKd at the NHL level.
We know how little exhibition game production means, right? So, he could Brandon Perlini the exhibition season and it would mean about as much as when Brandon Perlini did it – about nothing.
I didn’t mean bring in Klim to fight, the nickname may have been misleading. The way he plays is more of what I’m talking about. We do have Max Jones as that type of player, but I believe Klim to be a better player. And I do not consider him a plug, his time here was productive.
Did he go on a heater here? Sort of. But sometimes a fit is a fit. If there’s room to sign him for near min then it’s a no-brainer to me.
Yes, it would be nice to have 4th liners that PK and can skate and can score a bit and and and….but those guys cost too much now for us.
And I disagree with the exhibition game performance statement because it does influence decisions and it can have impacts on starting night rosters. Especially if your team is banking on 2 rookies in the top-6 already.
If a guy on a PTO lights it up and has clear instant chemistry with one of our stars. Then Savoie and Howard look like rookies and get scored on almost every time they’re out there. Then what happens? I doubt PTO guy gets waived.
He managed 35 games in SJ last season – if you can’t crack that roster, you are certainly a tweener. There is a lot of appeal to people and teams with big fast players, which is why they get to hang around longer than other guys that aren’t really going to stick
The Oilers need depth, but it’s better to be looking for players that have potential to develop more. That can play the details and produce some. At 26 the ship is leaving the dock if those things aren’t happening yet
How many goals will it take either Howard or Savoie to win our franchise first rookie of the year award? I say 26 should be enough even with Leon and Connor spoonfeeding them.
Only 3 rookies scored 20 goals last year with the leader at 26.
The players were drafted 1st, 5th and 7th overall (with the later being a top 2 talent but dropped as he was signed for term in Russia).
So, yes, 26 should have them in the conversation.
It also shows that the 31st overall pick in his draft year, maybe shouldn’t have the expectation of scoring at that pace as a rookie even though its not out of the realm of possibility and can be cheered for.
Big difference between 19 year old rookies compared to 21.5 year old ones. Jason Arnott had 60 goals under his belt by the time he was 21.5 years old.
Somewhat proving my point that your expectations of these players does not line up with reasonable likelihood.
I’m already missing Corey Perry – probably more so as the season wears on. Where are you going to find this net front irritant good for about 19 goals..for about a mil?
Lynyrd Skynyrd in Saskatoon Sept 12.The last original member passed away a couple of years ago. So this is little more than a cover band trading on a well known brand name.
I know he scored 19 this past season but I’m not sure he’s “good for 19 goals” going forward – good on him for the resurgence this past season and, if he’s 15+ again, I will bow to him.
I ranked the greatest NHL careers of all time, looking at Reg Season Points, Reg Season PPG, Playoff Points, Playoff PPG, Stanley Cups, Art Ross, Hart, and Conn Smythe trophies. There isn’t an exact weighting, but my GOAT list looks like this:
1) Gretzky – 2857 Points, 1.92 PPG, 382 Playoff Pts (1.83), 4 Cups, 10 AR, 9 Hart, 2 CS
2) Lemieux – 1723, 1.883, 172 Playoff Points (1.607), 2 Cups, 6 AR, 3 Hart, 2 CS
3) Orr – 915, (1.393), 92 (1.24), 2 Cups, 2 AR, 3 Hart, 2 CS, 8 Norris
4) Howe – 1850 (1.05), 160 (1.02), 4 Cups, 6 AR, 6 Hart
5) Crosby – 1687 (1.248), 201 (1.11), 3 Cups, 2 AR, 2 Hart, 2 CS
6) Lafleur – 1353 (1.202), 134 (1.047), 5 Cups, 3 AR, 2 Hart, 1 CS
7) Esposito – 1590 (1.24), 137 (1.053), 2 Cups, 5 AR, 2 Hart
8) Jagr – 1921 (1.108), 201 (.966), 2 Cups, 5 AR, 1 Hart
9) McDavid – 1082 (1.52), 150 (1.56), 0 Cups, 5 AR, 3 Hart, 1 CS
10) Ovechkin – 1693 (1.135), 147 (.913), 1 Cup, 1 AR, 3 Hart, 1 CS
11) Beliveau – 1219 (1.084), 176 (1.086), 10 Cups, 1 AR, 2 Hart, 1 CS
12) Messier – 1887 (1.075), 295 (1.25), 6 Cups, 0 AR, 2 Hart, 1 CS
13) Mikita – 1467 (1.042), 150 (.968), 1 Cup, 4 AR, 2 Hart
14) Malkin – 1346 (1.11), 180 (1.017), 3 Cups, 2 AR, 1 Hart, 1 CS
15) Lidstrom – 1142 (.73), 183 (.696), 4 Cups, 1 CS, 7 Norris
16) Yzerman – 1755 (1.159), 185 (.944), 3 Cups, 1 CS
17) Sakic – 1641 (1.191), 188 (1.09), 2 Cups, 1 Hart, 1 CS
18) P Kane – 1343 (1.031), 138 (.965), 3 Cups, 1 AR, 1 Hart, 1 CS
19) Kucherov – 994 (1.238), 171 (1.125), 2 Cups, 3 AR, 1 Hart
20) Bobby Clarke – 1210 (1.058), 119 (.875), 2 Cups, 3 Hart
21) Bobby Hull – 1171 (1.101), 129 (1.084), 1 Cup, 3 AR, 2 Hart
22) Draisaitl – 956 (1.21), 141 (1.469), 1 AR, 1 Hart
23) Bourque – 1579 (.980), 180 (.841), 1 Cup, 5 Norris
24) St Louis – 1033 (.911), 90 (.84), 1 Cup, 2 AR, 1 Hart
25) Dionne – 1771 (1.314), 45 (.918), 1 AR
Desperately in need of era adjustment.
I invite alternative points of view.
There are a few interesting ones that I would never have put so high on the board until I had done the research.
For example:
1) Guy Lafleur. I knew he was a superstar in his day, but I didn’t appreciate how dominant he was in the mid-to-late 70’s when he was the pimp of the league, putting up numbers we equate with McDavid today, all while the Habs won 4 consecutive cups.
2) Stan Mikita – won 4 Art Ross trophies in 5 years. Only one cup, but he was the boss of the league for a half-decade.
3) Mark Messier – is often ignored by these lists, but his playoff scoring (1.25 ppg) bests everyone on the list except for the players on Mt Rushmore. Six Cups, Two Harts, and a Conn Smythe. The Oilers literally had one of the ten best players of all time at the same moment they had the best player of all time.
McDavid is still working his way up the list. Another couple of Art Ross & Hart Trophies puts him ahead of Lafleur, and a Cup or two elevate him over Crosby, perhaps higher. Same for Draisaitl, who could be ahead of Yzerman & Lidstrom with a few more key pieces of hardware.
Never change, DSF, never change.
There’s lies, damned lies, and statistics
Any adjusting should be based on compared to peers. Comparing seasonal scoring rates I think could be misleading, like points /60 or any per 60 rate. Statistics have to align with the eye test
As I have put up before, my great uncle was a stats prof at UBC, and I asked him about hockey, which he didn’t follow, but said that . Meaning if a lesser established player has a banger number it’s a hot streak or we’re missing something
If there are any statistics people left here who actually have the knowledge please correct
How many career points do you think Kucherov would have scored if playing in the Gretzky era.
Ask your great uncle.
We need more goals from the supporting cast as Hyman-Nuge-Connor are starting to age out on their peak season scoring. McLeod-Holloway-Foegele are making around 12 million between them in a more featured role for their perspective clubs. They hit the twine 70 times. For half the cost we have Savoie-Howard-Mangiapane. Even though they won’t receive the gravy that Forgele-McLeod-Holloway recieve I still think our trio will out score the misfits that got away.
They need more goals from Connor.
If 97+29 = 110+ in the goal column, as it should, they’re looking good.
For me it’s about when do they score. I would be thrilled to see both be dominant in hard tight games like against the Panthers. Assert their will and get to the place where they can get it done
3 and 2 5v5 points doesn’t cut it in the finals
Of course, monitor the waiver wire but, realistically, is there any player that could come in on a PTO and beat out Lazar or Philp for 4C?
Is there any forward that could come in at all an win a job over the 16F the Oilers already have?
The answer, for me, is nope!
I have zero interest in Max Pacioretty despite a good run in the playoffs for the Leafs. Klim Kostin would be battling Max Jones for 16F.
How does Klim win a job give we see that exhibition game production means all but nothing? He could come in and score like Brandon Perlini and all it means is what it meant for Brandon Perlini.
The Oilers are going to have to cut at least two of (and actually 3 if they want to meaningfully accrue) Janmark, Kapanen, Jones, Lazar, Philp and Tomasek.
Jones is gone and, likely, Janmark but one more already needs to go.
Not to mention the likes of Jarventie and even Hutson might be banging oh the door. Hamblin is there for even further “security”.
Real reps at camp to get a feel for Samanski and Marjala are important. Jarventie and Hutson need reps with actual NHL player (in addition to those actual NHL players getting reps with who they may play with to start the season). Petrov and Grubbe will be looking to make impressions.
This will be Issac Howard’s first pro camp – he need lots of reps
I do expect at least two (Savoie and Howard) and likely three (Tomasek).
Janmark and Kap need to earn jobs with their bloated cap hits (based on last season’s play by each).
The team could and should move on from Henrique who’s cap hit is more then Janmark and Kap combined.
He has zero business being spotted in any skilled role, and is ridiculously over priced to be a 4C when the job can be done by a career winger making half the price.
If we’re talking about bloated cap hits for bottom of the roster players, Henrique must be the first player mentioned at all times.
No doubt Henrique is a luxury to have in the lineup. He can play center or wing; he kills penalties and can play basically anywhere in the lineup. His depth is valuable to the team. He’s much younger than Corey Perry and he contributed to the team’s success last season. I think Adam Henrique can still help out for another season.
The team has asked Henrique and he’s not willing to move at this time.
I do agree that Henrique needs to do more offensively vis-a-vis his contract but there is no comparison with respect to their on-ice value.
We can talk about moving Henrique, sure, but its not a realistic move – Janmark, who’s game can be replaced by a league min player on the roster (Henrique’s can’t), is a realistic move to save cap space (and not deter from the team).
You had me at “unique sports word salad…” Though finding the “sports” in the salad is getting harder, lately (I’m not complaining! Two hours of goofing around is highly entertaining at this end of the universe.)
Ps. I *am* rooting for Philp, for the record. On the ice, and in the word salad.
I’ve assumed Lazar was the RH 4C. He’s pretty much ideal there isn’t he?
It’s essentially “his job to lose” but there are different iterations for 4C that we’ll see or they’ll try. Henrique, Janmark, Tomasek, Kapanen, Savoie, Philp, or Hamblin could all feasibly see time at 4C (and McD, Drai or RNH could be double-shifted there) but it does seem like the intention is for Lazar to their long-sought after 4RHC who can win faceoffs and kill penalties unless Philp comes in and eats his lunch.
Another thing I must say, Free Bird is one of my all-time favorites. It always makes an old man want to get up and dance.
I agree that Free Bird is a great song with fabulous guitar work, but is it really a song you can dance to?
I used to dance a lot (from hippy free form contact improv to pretty much everything Latin and ballroom). I teach tango. If the music moves you, please, dance! Dancing may save the world. It’ll surely save your soul.
When I think of Free Bird I think of the summer I spent in the Okanagan, met a beautiful woman at a road party, skinny dipping in the lake, ended up on the beach with Free Bird playing on my car radio, well, you know the rest. I still think of her 40 years later.
Good story, mate.
We’ve got an Ogopogo sighting!
I must say that Stan Bowman is very good at working around the edges.
The other thing is that I believe it time for some young players to seize the day because some of these wily vets are nearing their expiry date.
I had very low expectations of Bowman coming in last year, but his ability to find good pieces from discard bins has been an unexpected surprise. Podkolzin, Kapanen and Walman were all good adds to a team that needed them.
I wasn’t sure of his abilities, or if he had become disconnected from the closed community, but it seems like he didn’t, and he seems to know a good hockey player when he sees one
I like the fact he can make good trades without getting completely worked, like the Five Million Dollar Man did
He can just pick up the phone and give his Dad a call.
He needs to be right with the Goalie he trades for.
I’m sure you didn’t mean to add Walman in the discard bin portion. We paid a price with our first round pick and Berglund. Good value for the player and team need but we’ll see what Bowman can do on his extension now. That will indicate the total sum of the acquisition in my opinion.
He was a throwaway from the Detroit organization and frankly considering his age and quality, I was shocked SJ let him go for as little as they did (very late 1st Rd & non-NHL track prospect). Maybe discard bin is a strong description, but I don’t recall him being on anyone’s radar as D acquisition. I give Bowman credit for finding someone outside the box.
That is how you do it. Find players that aren’t valued correctly, are seen as expendable, or haven’t emerged but are about to. Just getting the completely obvious players is more expensive in assets and or cap, and almost always means they are on the top of the aging slope
Apparantly Bowman had been calling Grier on Walman since November.
Berglund was just moving out a contract spot – non-qualified by San Jose and is a tweener ECHL/AHL player at 25.
With that said, agree, Walman was not in the discard bin but it was a player that Bowman identified early that was undervalued – a first round pick for a legit top four d-man with a year of term is a fine acquisition price to pay.
Yup, this contract will be very interesting as Walman could get close to $7MM on the open market and I’m hopeful to keep this around $6.5MM and no longer than 5 years – any more term needs to reduce that AAV – lets not pay for his 35+ years.