The Edmonton Oilers have the best player in the game, and the best 1-2 punch among 30 NHL teams. I’ll further boast that the team’s top three talents (McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard) are the best in the game. The trio represents a cheat code for big league hockey. Here’s the first blush “Riesen to Believe” named after Michel Riesen. I’m guessing the chances of each player making the roster. Here we go.
THE SIGNED FORWARDS
C Connor McDavid. He’s the best player in the game, and has some unfinished business with the Stanley Cup Final. McDavid is a brilliant player, but we have yet to see his signature moment on the biggest stage. I think we’ll see it this season. 100 percent.
C Leon Draisaitl. He has scored 50 or more goals in three of the last four seasons, and last year he delivered 20 percent of the team total all by his lonesome. That’s incredible. He’s a complete player at or near his peak and that’s a fearsome thing for opponents. 100 percent.
C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I have him at center, that may not be the case out in the wild. A couple of years ago he had a hitch in his giddy-up as a shooter, scoring just 11 goals. He was more aggressive the following year and scored 37. Just 18 and 20 since, and he’s now 32. I think he’ll recover some offensively, and stay on the power play, but have him coming in around .7 points-per-game in 2025-26. 100 percent.
LW Andrew Mangiapane. I don’t think we should overthink this, he’s a fine winger who can play successfully in the heart of the game. He can score and help outscore. Deployment in Washington aside, his career resume is a terrific match for the McDavid line. 100 percent.
RW Matt Savoie. The top right-wing on the list due to injury worries, I like this player plenty. I do worry about how well he’ll handle the physical side, but he’s a clever one who can stickhandle in a phone booth and has no fear. If he can stay healthy, suspect all will be pleased with the production. 100 percent.
LW Vasily Podkolzin. There are many who are underestimating Podkolzin’s chances of hanging around on the Draisaitl line. The big man is comfortable with the Russian winger, and I’m projecting an increase in goals and points, although no power-play time. 100 percent.
LW Trent Frederic. I’m pumped to see him play, Flames fans will hate him. Frederic, if he’s healthy, will play on the second or third lines effectively and drive opponents to distraction. Expect 15-20 goals, depending on his center. 100 percent.
C Adam Henrique. The veteran is slowing now, his points-per-game total over the last three seasons (.61, .62, .33) is a clear sign that keeping him with skill is contraindicated. He will make the team, but could spend plenty of time in the bottom-six and could be the fourth line center at times. 100 percent
RW Zach Hyman. Damnable wrist injuries are absolute daggers for skill players. Hyman’s availability for opening night is uncertain and we don’t know if those soft hands will return completely. Evander Kane was never the same after the Maroon incident. We’ll see about Hyman, I faded his goals quite a bit in the RE estimates. 80 percent.
LW Ike Howard. He will need to show well in preseason, but will get opportunities. I see his range of outcomes as being far greater than Savoie, but his unique qualities as a scorer will play on a team that has seen goal production fall off by 66 over the past two seasons. 80 percent.
RW-C Curtis Lazar. I would have it closer to 50 percent but if Lazar is healthy, and it would appear so, my guess is Knoblauch takes him over some other candidates (like Noah Philp or James Hamblin). He has great utility and has posted some good seasons in a depth role. 80 percent.
RW Kasperi Kapanen. He brings speed and aggression, and those things were more important a year ago than they will be this year. Kapanen can look all-world one game and like an imposter the next. He’s in a mix of players who could see Bakersfield if there’s a roster squeeze (13 instead of 14 forwards). 70 percent
LW-C Mattias Janmark. He’s making too much coin for a fringe player, but he has utility and the coach may prefer a center-wing who can PK over some of these other 50 percent players. He could be traded. 60 percent
RW David Tomasek. There’s no real way to handicap this player, he’s basically an unknown. What we can say is that he’ll post offense if given a feature role in preseason. Will that sustain when the NHL players arrive. I don’t know if he’s David Vyborny or Gaetan Haas, and neither do you. 70 percent.
RC Noah Philp. I’m cheering for him, but Lazar is in the way as the team enters camp. He needs to outplay some veterans, and I think he might do it. Does Knoblauch take a chance on him? 40 percent
LW Roby Jarventie. I don’t believe he makes the team, but I do believe he’ll show well and could be an early recall. I see Jarventie as slotting in behind Savoie and Howard in the “youngsters who could play on a skill line” group. 20 percent.
LW Max Jones. We’re not sure how much beef the coach will want in the lineup, and with Evander Kane gone perhaps there’s a sliver of a chance for Jones. 10 percent
C James Hamblin. He’s the last forward with a measureable chance to make the roster, and he would need a massive camp and an injury or two. He is a fine AHL player and can do it without the offense in the NHL. 6 percent.
RW Quinn Hutson. I wrote about him the other day and do think he has a chance to get some NHL time this season. His two-way acumen and the fact he’s an older prospect (although entering his first pro season) will benefit him. 4 percent
RW-LW Matvey Petrov. He’s been in the organization for two years and this is the final season of his entry deal. He has fantastic puck skills (the shootouts are grand!) but is averaging nine goals a season. He could get lost in the flood in Bakersfield this fall.
C-LW Josh Samanski. Massive forward who posted solid numbers in the German league. He is 23, so will need to show something this season in Bakersfield.
LW Viljami Marjala. Something of a wildcard (the AHL version of Tomasek) but his boxcars are intriguing. Listed as a winger but possessing the stats one associates with a play-making center, I think we’ll have to see him for a season in Bakersfield before we know what he could become.
RW-LW James Stefan. He’s an interesting player. A big time scorer in junior, he posted six goals in 12 ECHL games in 2024-25. He scored just three in 45 AHL games, but didn’t have anything close to a consistent feature role for the Condors. I like him, but at 22 he needs a major spike.
C Jayden Grubbe. He had a disappointing season with the Condors, after a solid rookie year in 2023-24. I hope he recovers, and if you look at the probable Bakersfield centers (Philp, Hamblin will lead the way) there should be room for more of a feature role.
LW Connor Clattenburg. As is the case with Max Jones, Clattenburg’s playing time will depend on how much the coach wants truculence. Some quality observers of the game have him as one of the Oilers top prospects. I do not. That doesn’t mean he’ll land outside the NHL, and we’ll get an indication this year about what the organization thinks of him.
RW-LW Brady Stonehouse. Signed in the fall of 2023 after a big offensive season in the OHL (37 goals), he scored 20 and then 14 goals in the seasons that followed. That isn’t enough, but he turns pro and deserves a full pro season.
RW Matt Copponi. He’s the only player signed to an AHL deal I’m including here (I will go deeper with the weekend edition of this post), he has enough skill to pass a pile of signed prospects. Will he get the chance?
The Lowdown with Lowetide is on YouTube, starting today! We’ll have Jason Gregor as our feature guest, and Declan Krueger will help us break down the football weekend. Noon-2 on Sports 1440 and You Tube (here).
What to expect from Edmonton Oilers rookies in 2025-26
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6588390/2025/09/02/edmonton-oilers-rookies-2025/
“This year already has a weird vibe, but the rookies are quality.”
A lot of new (& fresh) faces. I’m excited to see what they bring.
Jason Chimera from Millwoods minor hockey was also a 5th round pick by the Oilers in the 1997 Michel Riesen draft. 20 goals in each of his age 35 and 36 seasons, with the Caps and Isles. It is a thrill to watch games impacted by players who have blazing speed and a relentless forecheck, like Chimera and Marchant. Great career
Dylan Holloway.
Who?
Youtube request. Insert those subject/chapter dividers on the youtube video so one can fast forward to the sections one wants to listen to.
One additional thing to note from Jackson’s words – to paraphrase, he made reference to Leon being the highest paid player in the league and McDavid will look at that and determine where he should be in relation to that.
Is there a world where McDavid decides he doesn’t “deserve” a huge bump over Leon and comes in under $16MM?
Now, if Krill signs for $15.5MM tomorrow….. could mess that up, even with a longer term.
Imagine McDavid signing for a lower cap hit than Kaprizov – notwithstanding term.
Obviously Connor and Leon had a heart to heart talk before Leon signed. I do think Connor is here for the long haul. Nuge-Human-Nurse this group is going to get it done. I think Connor signing a friendly contact along with his Olympic quest will have great impact on his legacy.
My impressions on how this new rule affects trade deadline… instead of being able to add a player at his prorated remaining salary under the cap, now the max anyone can take on in a deadline deal if they want the player for the playoffs is going to be the difference between the cap and the combined cap hit of the top 20 playersthe expect to be on their roster come playoffs adjusted for dead cap. So, eliminating three bottom players from the cap calculation for playoff purposes, means the most a typical team can add at TDL above the season cao is approx four times the league max buryable contract or thereabouts… three for the non counting players in the playoffs and one for the player being supplanted on the roster. Anything beyond that may mean a higher priced player than that is NOT expected to be available for the playoffs…
That said it may create a market at the deadline where near bubble teams trade for an expensive player at the deadline knowing they are not making the playoffs, in order to add a boost to their team for the next season… rather than playoff teams looking to pad the roster as currently happens.
Connor is taking his time to figure out what he wants to do with term mostly. Talked to his agent this morning for over an hour. All options for term are on the table. We’ll get a deal done.
Yeah nothing but positive verbal from Bob and then Jackson. My concern-o-meter went from about a 3 back down to a 1 haha.
Highlights were definitely Bob Just perplexed at what Shannon was talking about with his comments, and the talk around Connor playing such an active role in Mangiapane and then Howard recruitments.
Jackson:
Stan and I and the management group and the owner are not nervous about the contract not being done.
They all know how comfortable Connor is and the key is set up up to win.
Implies we are indeed set up to win.
Team has been a very good team and will be again so Connor has a comfort with the org and those running the team and we aren’t nervous.
Connor is taking his time to figure out what he wants to do with term mostly. Talked to his agent this morning for over an hour. All options for term are on the table. We’ll get a deal done.
McDavid was huge in acquiring Ike Howard – spoke to him about everything about being an Oiler, the team, management, the city, etc.
I do think he bonded with Frederic as well. Make no mistake this is Connor’s team. Connor is the Captain and at the end of the day I think he’ll have a Messier like impact as a leader.
He’s not looking at it from the “I want to break the bank angle”. He wants to find the razors are where he gets what he deserves but allows the team to support him.
Leon is the highest paid player in the league and he’ll figure out where he fits in in relation to that.
I’m not that concerned and I don’t think you about be. I would be surprised if McDavid is not signed before the start of the season – Stauffer.
Stauff suggests that Shannon was NOT talking to anyone inside the org when he said what he said on his pod.
Yeah no kidding. Since when has John Shannon ever had any inside dirt on the Edmonton Oilers? Quite frankly, when has he ever had any inside information on any team in the NHL? Calling him an insider with credible information is being disingenuous … he’s no Friedman and he’s never had the kind of access that Stauffer has with the Oilers. He’s just a guy who likes to shoot the breeze about hockey (and other sports) on the radio (usually with Bob McCown).
Could Shannon be trolling Oiler faithful for hits while esting extra buttered popcorn.
I have no doubt that Shannon has lots of connections in the game and talks to lots of people and, sometimes, yes, has legit inside info.
I think he was tight with Ken Holland but does NOT have that relationship with Bowman or Jackson.
In this case, the entire time I kept “retorting” that Shannon never said he get information from anyone or was told anything – it seemed simply his interpretation of the situation.
The ultimate Oiler insider to tell us what might happen in a week, month, 2 months, is Stauffer.
Friedman is the man for what is going to happen in the next 2 minutes to 2 days – when someone is ready to leak an actual transaction.
If Connor and Leon stay together and give Bowman a opportunity on this mini rebuild they’ll have 8 more legit chances at a Cup plus their personal numbers will be Godly. Connor and Leon seem like loyal individuals my respect metre is at 10 with these two Oilers for life players and future management.
I am holding onto my gut feeling that he signs for 4 years between 16 and 16.5. LTD could be 8 x 17 though…
Random question for any of the mathematically inclined. Has anyone ever looked at if year to year advanced goalie stats (goals saved above average/expected, etc.) are predicted more by the goalies past performance or by the teams performance? Would be a challenge as you need to remove the goalies own stats from the team, which introduces some confounds. But league wide I’d be curious if those stats can be better predicted by the past performance of the goalie or of the team they will be playing for.
On a positive note, the Panthers will only get LTIR reserves for Matt Tkachuk equal to leave average salary (I think just under $4MM) and not his full cap hit……
Why are people complaining about the new playoff cap rule?
It is an advantage to the Oilers, because the Oilers have the best high end talent capable of dominating matchups. It means there will be less team depth in the playoffs.
The Oilers have been eliminated mostly because the other team have used playoff cap circumvention to make their teams deeper.
Less depth == advantage Oilers.
Now the org doesn’t have to rely on players like Kane to ‘play ball’ like how Kucherov, Stone, and Tkachuk have. I agree, this helps the Oil cause they didn’t/couldn’t take advantage of these gymnastics.
Hopefully now a player making 7M on PED’s cant open up cap space for other adds then join for the playoffs too.
They also can’t use double retention. There will be a less loading up at the deadline
Loading up at the deadline via accrued cap space could result in a lineup that is cap compliant during the regular season but illegal in the playoffs – what a stupid mechanism.
This playoff salary cap is a terrible “solution” to the LTIR issue and even worse, egregious, the way they’ve structured it.
Lets not forget, when a team is not in LTIR and are under the cap they are “accruing cap space” – high level what this really means is that a player only counts against the cap for the amount of days they are on the roster and, when a team acquired a player in-season, they do not need to fit in the entire AAV.
A $4MM AAV player at the deadline can be acquired for apx $1MM of cap space.
The way the playoff cap is calculated, the entire acquired AAV needs to be fit in. A team can have $1.3M of cap space, acquire a $4MM player at the deadline but then would need to account for all $4MM of that player to play in the playoffs.
That is AWFUL!!!!!
Yes, of course, only the 20 iced players count on the playoff cap but that is in addition to all other “dead cap” – buyouts, retained salary, players buried in the minors over the buryable amount, etc., etc.
The non-iced players (except injured) are likely very low cap hit players.
This is terrible.
It changes the game for sure. Means dead line day will be more for adding players to replace those out for the season and not loading up with accrued cap space beyond a few million for only paying the 20 for cap compliance.
Why should the cap be any different in the playoffs? This makes it more important to manage well, and makes rosters more like the regular season. It discourages cap circumvention
The cap IS different in the playoffs than the regular season and this means that fully legal lineups from the regular season (without LTIR use) can be illegal in the playoffs.
Egregious.
That doesn’t make sense. You are either cap compliant or you aren’t. LTIR allowed teams that had injury ‘luck’ to return guys in playoffs and be over the cap. Cap accrual was a function of that was it not? Beef it up with double retention. Teams can still accrue cap through cap management no? (leaving some unused cap) and buy the player they want with it. May not be able to use all of their players in playoffs though in a single game. I like it better
Agree is DOES NOT MAKE SENSE.
The way players acquired in season in the normal course is calculated on the cap (without using LTIR) is not the same in season as in playoffs – its effing terrible.
Using LTIR and accruing cap to acquire players were complete opposites – accrual is NOT a function of LTIR. When a team is over the cap in LTIR, accrual is not possible.
In season accrural was THE facilitator of playoff cap circumvention. There is NO way for reduce playoff cap circumvention without reducing the value and utility of in season accrural.
On can still trade for expensive players with in season accrural, to help make the playoffs, but the new playoffs rule properly limits the amount of cap circumvention allowed in the playoffs.
With respect, this i00% factually incorrect. The cap circumvention was related to LTIR usage – going over the cap with player on LTIR and then delaying their activation until the playoffs.
In this case there is zero cap accrual which is only available when a team is NOT using LTIR.
if the three noniced payers and the player the new addition is supplanting are all at the max buryable contract level of 1.15 m, that means the new player can be a max of 4.6m AAV… less if any of the four non skating palyers are less thatn the max buryable amount of 1.15m per.
I’ve been saying that we’ll know more on the McDavid situation around 4:15 as Stauffer is back on the air after a 2-week break.
Well, Jeff Jackson is on the show at 4:10 – I’m sure this is related to all the noise over the last week.
Buckle up. I would guess if McDavid wants out the slow leak will start today and build from there.
Please keep us updated on Stauffer messaging as well as Jackson cryptic or otherwise. This could be a huge day for this franchise second only to August 9th 1988 in my opinion.,
Bob is live with Jeff Jackson on his first episode back from vacation tonight. No other guests announced, just that he is live with Jackson. I’ll file that under interesting and sure hope its indicative of some positive news.
The playoff salary cap to be instituted this coming season.
https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1962940922854814120?s=61
NHL Rumour Report
@NHLRumourReport
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13m
Chris Johnston: Re Connor McDavid extension: When he talks about wanting to win in Edmonton, I fully believe that is the case; the chance to win again and again is what matters to him, I think there might be a little bit of trepidation there – First Up (9/2)
I really don’t get this argument around McDavid not convinced of the long term prospects of the Oilers winning year after year. The Oilers core is fine age wise, with older guys cap hits either coming off soon, or becoming a lower percentage of the total. They do also have a couple of younger guys coming and have demonstrated the ability to attract and sign top end talent every year. Further, there are no other teams in the NHL that have their salary structure set up to accommodate McDavids contract while retaining the rest of the core that has made it to the finals two years running. Any other team would need to drastically alter their roster to fit Conner in. How is that a better opportunity to win year after year than the Oilers provide?
Maybe its the goalie…
Carolina could accommodate McDavids cap hit relatively easily.
They don’t have many players I would want for CMD. I would want a significant C in return for sure. Aho is a good player but too small for my taste
They still need to give up significant assets to acquire him. The Oilers aren’t letting him walk in Free agency
Remember, McDavid has control over if and to whom he can be traded. He has to waive to accept a trade. If the Oilers are asking too much, McDavid might not waive knowing that he could wait till the end of season, and then join the team of his choosing without that team having to trade away key players just make cap room.
Fair enough but Bowman would be done as a manager if he allowed McDavid to walk for nothing. Even the Leafs got something for Marner
Do you really think McDavid is going to pull a Marner and sneak out of town leaving a AI generated see-ya?
Sure they only have to shed $5-7 million to fit him in at the salary many are expecting, but that would leave them with no cap room to upgrade their goaltending. Not sure McDavid would be gung ho to join an organization that it could be argued is no better off in net than the Oilers or perhaps even worse off. Anderson is getting old, injured often and inconsistent and Kochetkov probably isn’t the answer. They signed a Russian goalie, Miftakov, but predicting his success in the NHL is a crap shoot.
Carolina seems content with league average goaltending as they were top10 in goals against last season.
I love our team as much as anyone, but the extended core is old and needs fresh faces.
Kane just got shipped out, Hyman and Nuge aren’t getting any younger. After them, we’re looking at Mangiapane to play a big role here. We need Savoie and Howard (or someone unexpected) to hit big in order to keep our cup window going.
There is a worst case scenario this season where time takes it’s toll on our 30+ guys, Savoie is more Arcobello than MSL, and Howard’s game doesn’t translate. That’s a scenario where our future looks mighty bleak going into the off-season
My goodness what an unforced error losing Holloway was.
Agree on many of your points as possibilities, although RNH and Hyman cap hits should be manageable as they become smaller and smaller percentage of overall cap. What other team though wouldn’t have roster issues after giving up assets in a trade for McDavid, or trying to squeeze his cap hit in to an existing roster?
The cap hits are manageable but the cup is won by players. Being able to manage the cap hits of the aging group does not inherently lead to finding impactful players to replace their value.
And why does McDavid care about assets given up? If he doesn’t want to stay here, he can hand pick whatever team he wants. Assets traded to acquire McDavid do not factor in to McDavid’s decision. It’s been pointed out that if McDavid goes to UFA, Carolina can just sign him without making drastic changes to their roster. New Jersey is another team that should have plenty of cap space next off-season and a bright future. a Palat trade and Markstrom coming off the books gives them something like $16m.
Assets required to obtain McDavid weaken the roster that he is going to. That’s my point. The Oilers are the only roster built to accommodate McDavid today
Right, but what is the relevance of that point? What assets are being given up for McDavid in UFA?
Just getting back to this. The relevance is that many NHL insiders are saying McDavid hasn’t signed because he isn’t comfortable that the Oilers are set up to win year after year going forward. I’m saying the Oilers are set up better than anyone to do this because they don’t have to give up assets or significant cap space to fit McDavid in. The roster is already set up to accommodate his cap.
No they aren’t.
Ive already mentioned Carolina and Utah could do it by swinging a couple of trades.
Seravelli tweeting that parties have agreed the playoff salary cap comes in to play for this year’s playoffs.
This concept is terrible to start and the mechanics are even more terrible.
Remember, if a team is a below the cap (not using LTIR reserves) and “accruing space”, when they add a contract, they only need to fit in “what’s left” on the contract for that season. A $4MM AAV contract only has apx $1MM left at the deadline.
For the playoffs, the player counts at $4MM, not $1MM.
Thst is egregious – cap accrual now means much less if anything at all.
Now, the playoff cap only counts the iced team not the entire roster so that does mitigate but the way they’ve structured this playoff cap is terrible and doesn’t make sense.
I’ll have to confirm but all dead cap still counts for the playoff iced roster cap. We don’t get to discount Campbell, etc.
Money In / Money Out
If the Oilers want to add a major piece at the deadline it may have to involve moving out Mattias Ekholm
I’m not just talking Oilers and now just this season.
Going forward, this makes accruing cap (which is really just ‘being under the cap’, not in LTIR, and being able to acquire players with reference to what’s left on their AAV) meaningless.
For example: If a team manages the cap super well and acquires $16MM of AAV with apx $3.5MM of cap room at the deadline, well, they would need to account for all $16MM if those players are in a playoff game.
Examples of my point:
Jean-Francois C.
@JeanFrancoisCBA
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27m
I will use an extreme example. Carolina will be able to add around 48M of annual cap hit at the deadline with their 10.6M projected cap space.
However, in the playoffs, nothing is prorated so there’s 38M that would be unable to play.
Jean-Francois C.
@JeanFrancoisCBA
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24m
For a team like Toronto who is expected to have around 2M of projected cap space, they will be able to add around 9M of annual cap hit at the deadline.
But same thing here. Nothing is prorated in the playoffs so a lineup compliant on Game 82 couldn’t be illegal on Game 1.
Examples of my point from the co-best CBA sources on X (with Hart), Jean-Francois C.
Confirmed, all dead cap counts (retained salary, buyouts, buried players, etc., etc.).
This is terrible, in my opinion.
If a team manages the cap super well and acquired $16MM of AAV with apx $3.5MM of cap room, well, they would need to account for all $16MM if those players are in a playoff game.
Given we have been taken out by teams a couple of times at least by teams way over the cap, I can’t see it as a negative. Florida doesn’t have Marchand, etc etc. In other words it’s a more fair fight, especially for a team more honest than many contenders
Florida has 23 on the roster and is 4.5M over the cap. It seems they might have been planning to LTIR Turtle for the season and load up again for the playoffs. This weakens them and the Oilers aren’t affected
This exactly – cap accrual was such a bogus way for teams to circumvent the cap and ice playoff rosters that were way over the cap.
The cap on game 1 of the regular season, should be the same cap that is enforced on game 1 of the playoffs.
Gary Bettman’s NHL is just a total bush league – he and his cronies have had everyone thinking that this cap actual business made any kind of sense.
This is not correct.
Cap accrual was not used to circumvent the cap. Hiding players on LTIR and then activating them for the playoffs was how the cap was circumvented. Accrual was not happening with teams that were using LTIR.
There were other ways of fixing this without a playoff cap.
If a player was on LTIR to finish the season, that means they were out for at least 10 games and 21 days, they should not be eligible to start round 1 of the playoffs.
Lets say at least 2 games if not 3-4.
If the player was out since the deadline, out for full round 1.
This would have applied to Kane this past season.
The players union would sh$t a brick if the NHL went with what you’re proposing.
I don’t know about that.
The LTIR circumvention issue was one thing (a) a player going on LTIR, (b) the team using the ability to go over the cap to acquire a player, (c) the player not being activated during the regular season (no cap space to) and (d) the player “all of a sudden” being ready for game 1 of the playoffs.
If a player has been out for at least 10 games AND 21 days and, in most of these cases (unless a team is swaping players on and off LTIR since the deadline) since the trade deadline and can’t play game 82, the chances of them being ready to play game 1 three days later is quite low.
Play game 82 or, well, your playoff eligibility is delayed,
Pagnotta saying that the Wild are going to offer Kaprizov 8 years at $120MM to $130MM – approaching $16MM.
If this happens before McDavid….. sigh.
On the other hand, he speculated the $13MM AAV range for Eichel.
Kaprizov signing soon for whatever for 8 years would be a good thing.
It means McDavid can sign for Kaprizov’s AAV + $500K for four years, and we are back to only worrying about the Olympics and the Stanley Cup.
In no universe should Kaprizov be making more than Leon.
Pity Minny that they have to overpay their stars so much to remain there.
I agree, and we discussed this a bit, I think yesterday.
Thing is the market gets re-set often and its already been re-set since Drai signed (for sure on d-men).
Leon has arguably been the best player in the NHL over the past 5 years.
Kaprizov’s numbers aren’t that much better than Marner’s, and I’d rate Marner to be better in his own zone and less injury prone. Marner signed that deal this summer, with full knowledge of the increasing cap.
So why should Kaprizov get paid more than Marner?
I like the thought of Henrique on the 4th line. He is going to pk alot as well so is a pricey specialist. But then again I would like to see them deploy McD, Drai, RNH and Henrique as Centers with a rhc floating between line 3 and 4 for face offs. Let the wingers take advantage of the center quality.
I think we may see Henrique playing some top 6 wing as well – for real.
The blender is real.
I like the changes Bowman has made, I like the player types more than the departed. Kane is a loss in a couple of ways, but he was not reliable defensively, and that is the biggest key to the season. Every team has off games, but will they turn it around quickly, and not go on slumps which make seasons much harder, and leads to overplaying the top players?
The changes won’t disrupt, if they get their identity, style and system infused through each player. That starts with Connor and Leon showing the way and not going off script, and then the coaches bringing everyone together and on board. There are the high skill plays the top guys will make, but that is different than also not following and executing the plan well
and not go on slumps which make seasons much harder, and leads to overplaying the top players?
Slumps and slow starts. I think these have been real problems the past two or three seasons. Slow starts to individual games, seasons, and playoff series. Sure they typically come back and finish strong and have had much success, but at what cost? The coach reverts to overplaying the top players like you mentioned and this taxes these guys physically and mentally. The difference between winning and losing in the playoffs is razor thin. Having your stars not in peak form due to fatigue could be and has been part of the difference in my opinion.
LT on 97 “but we have yet to see his signature moment on the biggest stage”. Here’s hoping for two signature moments this year. Although with LT’s wit, pretty sure that’s what he was implying here, you sly fox you.
Ugh, the weekend edition for the series? I want all the heroin, all the time man! Just give us the juice LT! Cheers!
Oh it’s a slog! I have the defense and goalies to come in one article, and then the drafted guys who will play junior and the AHL-only deals. THEN it all gets added together and then we cull as training camp moves along. It’ll be 60+ names by the end.
I feel like our core pieces have an established level of excellence, but the fringes of the roster has the most question marks we’ve seen in some time imo. Mangiapane and Frederic are both big bets coming off down years. Hyman may or not be 50 goal scoring Shaq Hyman. Savoie and Ike are two rookies who may or may not help reshape the top 9. RNH is likely moving down to 3C and Rico to 4C, but will their age limit their effectiveness? Then there’s all the other new adds in the 50% and under crowd who could be a rotating cast throughout the bottom of the lineup. Lots of stories to follow this season, I’m looking forward to seeing how this roster comes together. KK certainly has his work cut out for him sorting all of this out
Agree on Jarventie.
The reason he could stick is if they are truly concerned about waivers.
It’s tough to imagine a team claiming him and keeping him on their roster – looks like an NHL player has not made it yet and has played 2 games in the last season and a half.
Any team would love to have him on their AHL team to start and ramp up but tough to keep him on an NHL roster over incumbent tweeners.
Only takes one though.
I’ve got Janmark at 50% rising from 30% due to the Hyman uncertainty.
The verbal on multiple occasions in early August from Stauff is a main reasons – lots of alluding to this guy not being on the roster without saying it.
I’m excited to see a few dynamic wingers in the mix. We haven’t heard ‘stick handling in a phone booth’ since Hemsky!!
Most of our flank play over the past number of years has been more ‘north south’. Skinner had some flair. Yamamoto? Should be fun
Eberle definitely had some of that stick handling magic. It does seem like we have been short on that player type for awhile. I see Howard the most likely player to grow into that role if he pans out
“RW Kasperi Kapanen. He brings speed and aggression, and those things were more important a year ago than they will be this year.”
Why do you feel those things will be less important LT? I thought with Kane gone, these would be more of a premium.
There is a lot more speed on the team than the start of last year. There is toughness too with Frederic, Mangipane, Podkolzin, Savoie and with what Hyman showed he can bring in the post season. This may be a tougher year for Kapanen to stick in the line up, if he doesn’t develop more consistency (which is unlikely).
Speed will be better, as Bar_Qu mentions. I think aggression will be more on display with Mangiapane, Savoie and others. Last year, I think Bowman added Kapanen because they needed speed and aggression and he added to that over the summer.
More often than not, Kapanen brought speed and little else except leaky neutral zone play. Hence the healthy scratching for much of the stretch drive and the beginning of the playoffs.
Kudos to Kap, when he got his chance in the playoffs, he played his best hockey as an Oiler, by far, for about 4 games. Speed, aggressiveness, better puck decisions, a bit of offensive creation.
His game fell off after about 4.
Cap got paid an extra $300K – $400K based off of four playoff games.
I LOVE what this player can bring (i.e. those 4 games) but we have close to a decade of history that tells us that he provides that in, what, 15% of the games.
Hopefully he can find that game more consistently but Kap is in the 11F-14F range for me.
Love the person as well.
Am I right to assume that Hyman at 80% is reflecting his chances of being ready for opening night? I don’t see any chance that he doesn’t make the team for the season, but might miss some time for his recovery before making his debut… is that a fair reading on your ranking?
Yes for sure. If he were completely healthy, Hyman would have been third on the list.
That’s what I thought! Gave a heart palpitation to see anything other than 100% next to his name though!
I have it as any time you go under the knife your taking your chances. I wonder where Connor would be at now if he chose to opt for surgery after Kneeordano took him out.