It’s cooler this morning, autumn creeping in. This is my favourite time of year, although there are heavy clouds hanging in the air that will arrive in November. It’s strange how the seasons impact a person. I find fall both beautiful and sad, but it fills my soul far more than summer. Maybe I’m just getting old.
I’ll have more Riesen to Believe thumbnail sketches on the weekend, we are starting to get information trickling and hopefully any PTO’s get leaked in the next few hourse. Meanwhile, a couple of changes to the ‘certain’ pile of roster candidates heading to or in Edmonton. I’ve moved Zach Hyman and Mattias Ekholm to ‘uncertain’ due to injury worries.
I don’t know these men won’t make opening night, but it helps to contemplate roster options by putting them in a spot they’ll possibly land. It allows us to discuss players who will benefit from those injuries.
This is the uncertain list, with Hyman and Ekholm added. The players in bold stand to benefit most, in my opinion. I think Ike Howard makes the team and am sure both David Tomasek and Kasperi Kapanen are in better spots today. We’ll see. I also think Leppanen, Stecher, Emberson and Regula are enjoying a slight uptick in fortune but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Expect surprises.
I see Ryan Rishaug had a conversation with Connor McDavid, and believe we all have our feeling about how things are progressing. Oilers fans have a lot of anxiety about this situation, I’m not going to add to it.
I will say management giving him all kinds of room is the right call, and I knew something was up when Bob Stauffer didn’t tweet a slap back immediately after John Shannon’s comments. I’ve been reading tea leaves from this organization since the 1970’s, and would suggest this is a sensitive time for all involved.
Connor McDavid has earned the right to make his decision on his own terms. That’s what free agency affords every player who reaches this point. You don’t need me to ruffle your tailfeathers with my opinion, because that’s what it is: an opinion. We wait and we hope things get done in a timely fashion, while also recognizing that nothing lasts forever, even a brilliant hockey career. I’ve known what Connor McDavid is since before the draft, and certainly during that 2015 orientation camp when he flew by like a rocket before I had a chance to sit down. I have interviewed McDavid, he measures his words and is sincere. I’m not sure which way he is leaning, but will say he’s worked hard for a decade in Oilers silks and earned this time to reflect. All the best to this young man, no matter how it turns out.
Today on the Lowdown, we’ll have Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Declanations, plus many thoughts on McDavid, the Oilers and last night’s Eagles win. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube (here).
Predicting the 5 biggest surprises of Edmonton Oilers training camp this fall
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6598076/2025/09/05/edmonton-oilers-training-camp-2025-surprises/
If you predict the surprise was it REALLY a surprise?
Yes! 🙂
Dear LT,
Looks like your WordPress site may have been hacked/infected with some malware. When one searches your website in Google, it redirects to another site. Please see the website description shown in the following screenshot.
Noticed the same thing earlier today. When selecting the Google link to this site was redirected to an online pharmacy. Wtf?
Seriously considering deleting the blog and running on blogger. I can’t keep up with the maintenance. I appreciate you pointing it out, though. 🙂
Could consider Substack or similar
Something that just occurred to me – I’ll need to do some research but I think, with the new rules, NCAA drafted prospects can come to camp and not lose their eligibility.
Thinking Paul Fischer, among others…….
The Canadiens finally move the Carey Price contract (to San Jose) which became possible after Price was paid a $5.5 million bonus on September 1 leaving only $2 million in the final year.
Montreal now with $4.5 million in free cap space heading into the season.
LT, I think you should write about how the trade deadline rules will, or might affect roster building right now.
Will the best trade deadline targets be in the 1-3m range?
If you lose a great player, you can only shop in the under 3.8M bin?
How does a team best position knowing they will be unlikely to improve of fill gaps at trade deadline without losing a player?
Should a team stash a couple more 1m players in AHL?
What will be the most important currency? Picks?
What im wondering is…….is there some type of strategy here that Golden Nights already have a plan to exploit?
I believe the upper limit for an LTIR replacement is league average salary at the cap. ie. Total cap divided by a 23 man roster. The $3.8 million would be that figure for 24/25 used as an example to illustrate the concept, but with the league cap moving to $95.5 million, the league average will become ~$4.2 million. I can’t imagine they would calculate that average for this purpose any other way. Still a massive reduction, but even $300 to 400,000 extra can make a difference.
I have ALOT of thoughts on the new rules, the most egregious being the difference between how a player’s cap hit is counted to team in the regular sesaon of they are not operating in LTIR (i.e. AAV pro rated for the amount of days the player is on the roster) vs. the playoffs (total AAV/cap hit acquired no matter how many days the player is on the team).
A $10MM AAV acquired at the deadline would require apx $2.3MM of cap space during the regular season but $10MM in the playoffs.
Terrible.
The only way I see adding a good player is with salary retention. So if you take the 7 million aav and chop it down that way does his full aav count in playoffs or the portion that came with the player? I get you OP the ltir is a cooked goose.
Yes if another team retains a percent of the salary in a trade, the team will count the full remaining percent against their playoff cap. However, “accrued cap space” can still be used to fit the unretained portion in during the remainder of the regular season, playoffs.
This past season, Florida acquired Seth Jones and Chicago retained $2.5 Million of his $9.5 million salary. If Florida had accrued any extra cap space, they could use that to fit the $7 million under the cap. If they had accrued $1 million, then they would get to know off probably around $3.0 million of his salary AAV and only count $4 million against their cap from the deadline to season end. And no cap in the playoffs.
Under the new rules starting this year, with everything else the same, they count $4 million against their regular season cap, but in the playoffs, his salary would count the unretained portion of $7.0 million. His retained portions stays with Chicago and if Chicago were to miraculously rise up and get to the playoffs, they would have to count his $2.5 million against their salary cap so the retained AAV is not lost in the system.
Correct, retained salary remains a factor and even more important now.
Of course, they have practically eliminated double retention where there must be 75 days between retained salary transactions on the same player.
If you acquire a $7MM player at the deadline half retained down to $3.75MM (creating a cap charge to the team of apx $800K), the playoff cap hit would be $3.75MM so retaining matters.
LT, I have a replay post that continues to say waiting for approval. I have reread it several times and have no clue why it is being held up. A clear explanation would be helpful. It is very frustrating.
This is not unique to you.
I have this happen often for no apparent reason.
Some times I think its length.
I’ll post, held for approval.
Re-post, held for approval.
Re-post part of it, fine – edit and add more, fine. edit and add the rest, fine.
Spec spoke to Hyman who is still back in Toronto rehabbing.
Going through the process and the checks – doing lots of skating and stickhandling but no shooting yet – that’s the last check.
Not sure if he’ll be on-ice for opening of camp but said to ask him again in a week.
i doubt he starts the season but hope he gets in after a month or so
If he’s out for a min of 10 games and 21 days and can be put on LTIR it will save some opening night roster decisions……..
Of note, the Oilers would only get up to $3.8MM of LTIR reserves via the new rules (not his entire AAV).
Now that in-season “accrual” will have a ton less impact vis-a-vis the playoffs, less issue with spending some time in LTIR.
Howard better keep practicing thst one-timer and Frederic should should talk to Ryan Smyth about screening the goalie without losing a mouth full of chicklets.
KHL opening game, Berezkin held off the score sheet in a 2-1 SO win – he did score in the SO and had 3 shots and almost 23 minutes of ice time.
Mercy, I truly hope he comes over next year.
Can’t wait for him to slide in to the middle six next year – he says he plans to come over, straight from the mouth.
Per Curlock:
A thread with a bunch of great video highlights from Berezkin’s game today – amazing thread by Mathew P.
Anyone that clicks on this will instantly get very excited about this guy on next year’s team:
https://x.com/mathewjdp/status/1964073862280466508
The most interesting thing to me on defence is if Regula will show management that they can’t risk him on waivers and win that opening night job over Stecher (who they very well could lose on waivers – he’s legit value at league min).
I said it earlier tie goes to the bigger faster puck mover. It’s always been that way with Stan. I thought Regula would have to work his way from Bakersfield but If he has a good camp he’s going to make the team as 6-7. Stecher may get picked up especially at his salary but Regula was handpicked by Stsn and I believe has more upside and value.
McDavid was VERY clear again that he has no issues with the direction of the team or their ability to contend over the next few years. His decision has nothing to do with the team in that respect.
He also did say things about how much he puts in the game and needing to get paid what he’s earned/is worth but knowing there is a cap, etc.
I think this decision is truly about what makes sense for him to get paid but leave cap space on the table, what term makes sense with what AAV – I also think he likely struggles with knowing the numbers that he could get and not wanting to take too much more than Leon (but knowing that Kaprizov, for example, could be at $16MM soon and I do think Connor believes he should be the highest paid – probably him and Drai).
While he likely correctly believes that he has performed and is expected to continue to perform at a level worthy of the highest near term salary, it may not be that important to him if he is not. Stanley Cups (and some International medals) and his personal contributions to try to make those happen will have more impact on his view of his legacy than whether for a few seasons he is the highest paid. No one will compare Kaprizov to McDavid based on what they are being paid. There are enough other measuring sticks in hockey, relative salary is not needed to determine players relative merits.
I doubt this is the case, but if Connor’s decision on AAV hinges on what Kaprizov’s contract is rather than what is right for him in balance with the Oilers and their combined objectives, then, I would not agree with his thinking on the decision if winning is as important to him as I think it is. It is also not a given though, if Kaprizov’s deal happens to be announced first and McDavid’s follows at a higher AAV that he adjusted what his ask was going to be based on Kaprizov. He may already have his number in mind and it is already higher than what Kaprizov and the Wild are working on.
Sidney Crosby never needed to be the highest player in the league. He twice signed deals paying him less than Ovechkin even though Pittsburgh would have happily given him more. He also knew in 2012, that the next deal signed by Malkin within a year would be higher than his and that several other players very soon pass him, since he signed well below the cap percent he could have asked for.
His salary impacts the-high end players of the league. If he takes less than market value there will be some pissed comrades since McDavid is setting the market value of the league.
This is correct. Former stars have been open about the need for players to push the envelope. 97’s legacy isn’t just his own, but to the other players in his union too. There’s a sweet spot of pushing the top higher for the players while leaving room for the team to wheel and contend.
This opinion is stating the Oilers cannot win the cup because they have McDavid and Draisaitl and those players are under pressure to sign for the max possible thereby consuming valuable cap space hamstringing the team. The old idea was win something (the cup) and then cash in on the fame (Chicago Blackhawks & Florida Panthers) no mega contracts but cups not hopes to win cups (Oilers – McD & Drai)
Bobrovskey was signed by Florida to $10 million back in 2019, Barkov to $10 million in 2021 and Tkachuk to $9.5 million in 2022. Barkov and Bob were tied for 10th highest and Tkachuk for 15th. In 2022, Florida had just won its first playoff series since 1996 and they had 3 of the top 20 paid players in the league.
They also got lucky enough to add Seth Jones to their team whose contract pays $9.5 milllion ($7 million after retention), which would not have happened if Tkachuk wasn’t hurt enough to miss the rest of the regular season and return on day 1 of the playoffs.
The 20 players iced by the Florida Panthers during the series had AAV’s that added up to almost $95 million vs, I believe, Edmonton having 20 with an AAV in the low 80’s to mid 80s due to Hyman’s absence.
Bill Zito was able to fill around those contracts with value deals.
The problem with the Oilers is they have FOUR mega deals.
If McDavid and Draisaitl end up as the two highest players in the league, they will also be joined by two defenesemen who have top 10 cap hits and based on comparables are overpaid…Nurse by a lot.
Bouchard will certainly not be overpaid in the next 4 years based on his body of work – my goodness.
Of course things will evolve as they always do but Bouchard is currently the second highest paid defenseman in the league other than the two legacy contracts to Karlsson and Doughty which were mistakes the day they we’re signed.
I would suggest he is not the second best defeneseman in the league.
So the fourth highest paid d-man in the league……..
He is top 10, bordering on top 5, about to enter his prime and through the course of his four year contract, many d-men will jump over him.
It’s amusing you would choose to highlight Fibonacci by using that name.
First while he was a formidable brilliant mathematician, his 2 most noteworthy accomplishments are probably publishing the Fibonacci Sequence and the use of digits instead of Roman numerals, neither of which he deduced on his own.
The Fibonacci sequence was derived in India 1,400 years before he was born. Same with the use of digits which were subsequently improved upon by the Arabs again hundreds of years prior to Fibonacci’s time. Very much to his credit though he learned from the Arabs and others and realized the improvement to what Europeans used and understood and wrote about these two revelations among others.
But the Eurocentric view of the world tends to downplay the history of the India/Persian/Arab contributions to modern science and mathematics (except in Robin-hood Prince of Thieves) who leapt ahead of Europe during the first 1000 years after the fall of the Roman Empire. In a world that properly reflected history, the sequence would probably be called Pingala
But regardless, even more humorous based on the history of your posts, your apparent grasp of anything mathematical would clearly disqualify you from any association with Fibonacci.
Advanced mathematics pre-date Indian/Persian/Arab rediscovery by millennia.
That’s a Red Herring. I never said or implied those 3 were the only ones doing ancient mathematics or that they weren’t building on earlier civilizations mathematical concepts. I was only addressing the source of Fibonacci’s two most noteworthy contributions, which were discovered, not re-discovered, in India, and the use of modern digits was advanced in Persia/Arabia. Neither the digit system used today nor the Fibonacci sequence were present in the mathematics of Ancient Mesopotamia, Egypt or Greece. So Pingala still deserves the sequence name as much as say Pythagoras does for his Theorem.
The aforementioned were all derivative and transitional.
Egyptian, Sumerian and Indus Valley civilizations sprung up almost simultaneously following the last global catastrophe.
Every one of them pays homage to far older civilizations.
Prior to the salary cap, the star players pushing the envelope was critical to increasing the total paid to players, which benefited all players.
In the salary cap era it is irrelevant to the total player compensation, but it is beneficial to the stars and detrimental to the average and below player.
The NHLPA used to be adamant that stars pushed for max and very negative about not pushing for more. Now it is irrelevant to the NHLPA because the total compensation to its members is predetermined.
In regard to Ekholms comments on his contract situation:
I find this very bothersome, and perhaps it is due to the larger contract (McDavid) issue but perhaps not.
Just because the “you have to take care of the big boys first” is no reason that a conversation does not take place with Ekholm. He assumes “then we’ll talk” Well its September and there is zero reason that there has not been significant communication.
Dereck Ryan – not commenting on being sent to AHL but how it was managed. this is usually about communication
Dylan Holloway – uncertainty that Oilers were not in discussion with him led to signing the offer sheet
No discussion with Corey Perry
Trading Evander Kane with Coffey openly criticizing the trade
Jackson signing Arvi and Skinner on an opportunity whim
Nobody knows who or why Josh Brown was signed
Connor McDavid?
Is there a rift somewhere?
Mcdavid sets the future of the team thats just a fact, but just because they haven’t talked the player doesn’t mean they haven’t talked to the agent. Stauff mentioned extensions for a few guys so that runs counter.
Derek Ryan – signed a 2 year deal where Stauff and others openly said he would likely be in the AHL in year 2. He didn’t report because he thought he was too good for it. He knew it could happen, what do we owe DR exactly? He went out like a chump in my opinion. Sign a 1 year then, that 2nd year to eat popcorn was a favour imo.
Holloway – is playing ‘change the narrative’ that the Oil treated him bad when he fired his agent who said the Oil would match. You gambled and lost then popped. Poor management read? Yes on talent. It was Holland’s negotiation tho.
Corey Perry signed for 3.5. No discussion to be had at looney tunes numbers.
Kane trade – Bouch offer sheet was a real threat. Carolina was prepared and so were others. Cleaning up Hollands messes and he was the one to go.
Arvi Skinner- they didn’t actually expect Skinner to sign and were far from the highest offer. They wanted one and got both. Source: trust me.
Josh Brown – you got me, fully buryable tho and not really related to communication.
None of these are in a vacuum and of note, Bro Dyl literally had never happened before so props to Armstrong hating on Bowman. The summer of offer sheets didn’t happen as predicted from it.
Bowman said earlier that he’s already had discussions with the agents for Ek, Walman, Podz, Kulak – this was weeks ago. Lets not pretend to necessarily know who is talking to who. I’d prefer to wait on Ekholm in any event.
Derek Ryan should praise the Oilers organization for allowing him to stay home, collecting his $1MM salary and hanging out with his family, while the Condors were fighting for a playoff spot with half ECHL call-ups.
Holloway should praise Broberg’s agent and Doug Armstrong for taking advantage of a very unique situation – Holloway was being negotiated with along the lines of standard practice for a non-established NHL player, coming off his ELC with no arb rights and a total of 18 points in 89 games.
No idea what you are talking about on the Kane trade and Coffey.
Opportunity whim sounds like a made up speculation for the Oilers preparedness last July 1.
I want to see what Ekholm is this season before negotiating a deal.
So…the Oilers have not actually relinquished the rights to Copponi, Määttä, Münzenberger and Mazura just yet, even though the August 15 deadline has come and gone.
In order to become UFA’s, college players have to submit paperwork to the NHL saying they’ve either graduated or are no longer enrolled in college. Because none of the four have yet done so–and more than a dozen others–they remain Oilers property.
Even though the linked article is more than a couple weeks old, Puckpedia still shows all four players on the Oilers’ reserve list.
They are considered NHL UFAs for sure.
Copponi is signed to an AHL deal with the Condors but could sign with any NHL team – I think we’ll see the Oilers sign him mid-season – I hope.
Ekholm has been on the ice for practice skates and early intel is no health issues.
Neither Bouch nor Nuge have been on the ice in Edmonton yet (or Hyman, of course).
Gregor:
“Absolutely I want to stay in Edmonton, but I know you have to take care of the big boys first. Once he (McDavid) gets done I’m sure we will talk. I’m getting up there (age) but I know what I bring,” Ekholm on entering the final year of his deal.
Ek says he had a torn abductor – kind of alluded to just trying to survive out there in the SCF (they shouldn’t have played him is my thought).
He feels great now – on ice with guys again today.
I think he can go back to “certain”.
Agreed on not playing him. They do this over and over. A healthier player is almost always a better bet than a guy seriously limited. If you don’t trust your bench get one you do
Tkachuk played the whole playoffs with a torn abductor and may miss the first 2 months of the season. Reinhart played through a grade 2 mcl sprain. Barkov played the last 5 games with a big gash across his entire palm that needed to be completely stitched 3 different times over those games. The Stanley Cup winning Florida Panthers have no issues with injured players being in the line up.
Bobby Baun scored in OT on a broken leg (from blocking a Gordie Howe shot in the 3rd) to send the finals to game 7 in 1964, where he again suited up to help the Leafs win game 7 and the Cup. His teammate Red Kelly played game 7 with a torn ACL.
The DMan who wore number 4 played the entire 1988 playoffs with a broken wrist and broken ribs. Duncan Keith won the Conn Smythe playing on a torn meniscus the last 4 games in the final in 2015
The question isn’t should injured players be in the line up. Its are the injured players more capable of doing things to help the team win than the player brought in to replace them. Easy to say, get a bench you trust, but in a cap world, that depth is stocked by $1 million dollar players. In the Oilers believed, consistent with how every other team in the NHL approaches this, combined with the medical staff advice, that Ekholm even in his limited state entering the finals, could do more to help them win than Stecher or Emberson being in the line up, despite those players being legit NHL players.
I get what you’re saying, but I think it depends on a few things. Thinking of these playoffs, I say it’s harder to play D than F with an abductor issue. Or any significant LBI, because of pivots etc
Tkachuk and Barkov and Nuge were hampered in points 5v5 it seems where it’s harder.
Ekholm was not good, or not nearly himself, defensively, although he had the 2nd most 5v5 points. His and Bouch’s GF% was under water, and that is normally were the Oilers make up some ground
Ekholm has the 2nd most TOI 5v5 for D in the finals. Maybe they thought he was good enough to play, but perhaps using him less and a healthier guy more might have been a better plan
Well considering that every other defenseman had both a worse goal share and a worse expected goal share among all the defenseman who played in the finals, it is pretty hard to argue that Ekholm shouldn’t have been playing at all, which is where you started. Bouchard and he, had results that were considerably better than Walman and Klingberg.
And in the finals, Ekholm with McDavid at 5 v 5 was 3GF/4GA which is not up to their standards but not horrible and McDavid was 0GF/4GA without Ekholm while Ekholm was 3GF/3GA. And that 0/4 was all with Walman and whoever his partner was. Ekholm did not play as well as he would have fully healthy no question, but him playing hurt, even the time he got, was not why they lost.
I’m not sure if you have been here around long, perhaps switched your handle, but stats without context are numbers that inform nothing because it hasn’t been attributed to anything specific. Numbers without usage, who was on the ice etc are a glimpse of the story. It takes a ton of work to parse that all out
Like the eye test, I think it was you that called me on mentioning a relative who did that academically, whomever made the comment was disputing a professional statistician, maybe you are one, but my take is that most commenters that put out a bunch of numbers are those that work with math a lot, so they find it easy to do that. I don’t fall into that category, and you correct me sometimes when I make a mistake, which I appreciate
This was at the foundation of hockey analytics, started here among a few other gone dark blogs, and those folks were here. They mostly now work for NHL teams
Ekholm had fine numbers in the SCF, even something like 5 or 6 points but his struggles were evident to the eye.
Perhaps we need to acknowledge how elite Bouchard is and his ability to float all boats?
If we go solely on playoff numbers, well Kulak/Bouchard might be the best pairing in the league.
I am not sure what more context you need. Goals for and against are not just numbers, they are the most important results in the game that lead to wins and losses. And while Ekholm was in the ice 5 on 5, the team got closer to achieving what they needed for wins and losses than they did with any other defenseman on the ice. And for further context, I pointed out the forward he spent the most time on the ice with who also happens to be the team leader and who had way better results with Ekholm than without him.
You have provided your view based on your subjective opinion with no other context as to why you believe someone else should have played with regularly with Bouchard and by extension a lot with McDavid.
Per Cult of Hockey who rewatch every game to make their assessment Ekholm had only made 1 mistake on a goal against in the first 4 games of the series. He had a poor game 5 with them dinging him with 2 mistakes on goals against but his play through the first 4 games would not have a coach demote him or not play him. And most of the team was hot garbage in game 6 with Bouchard, Walman and Klingberg getting lower grade scores from COH than Ekholm.
And finally, against Florida, Ekholm’s time on ice 5 on 5 was behind Bouchard, Kulak, and Nurse so he was 4th not 2nd – not sure where you got your info. Oh and the only reason Ekholm’s ice time got over 20 minutes per game was due to 3 OT games. Otherwise during regulation he was playing almost 3 minutes per game less than normal for him.
So Friedman’s comments today, Spectors article and Rishaug’s interview are interesting to say the least on McDavid.
Is this as simple as McDavid waiting to see how good Savoie, Howard are this season? And seeing how Stu responds as goalie to start with new coach? Less about another move or two, and more about seeing if the young guys make him a believer that they’ll be big contributors over the next 5 years.
he has repeatedly said long term winning is key. he clearly said he believes they have best shot to win this year. So he won’t waive his no move. McDavid will be here this season More if he would be open to sign and trade in off season.
Painfully I don’t expect him to sign until just before Christmas. When he sees how the younger guys respond and how Stu calms the net, and if they struggle out of the gate he will see what Bowman does to address it (with younger players he believes can help him win multiple cups over his next contract)
I felt the 32 thoughts pod was very helpful. 97 wants to win, wants an organization that will find every way to reach that goal and will provide the foundation to make it happen. Between that and what he said yesterday, I think you are right. The team needs to come out of the gate strong and give him reason to believe there is sustain there (no selling the future for the present this year).
I think the playoff cap actually helps the Oilers significantly. It means there is no waiting for a solution in March, but ensuring the best team is iced in October. Early trades will happen from smart teams recognizing the value of cap accrual is nil for playoff bound teams. It might make it easier to offload big contracts to teams outside the race however.
McDavid said himself there is nothing he needs to see from management as far as the team goes.
Been meaning to post regarding your comments on long term winning for a few weeks. I’ve been following the 32 teams links on the NHL app since early August. Most all the good teams with great players speak of “these athletes are wired differently” and “nobody sees the efforts behind the cameras” and of course “they just want to win”. THIS is the most significant factor for a McDavid extension. He wants to win and cement his legacy. He wants to do it with the Oilers. Management needs to prove that they are capable of providing his biggest dream into reality. It seems like a cliche but it’s the only factor. Godspeed Bowman, make it so.
I get that Oilers management has been – shall we say – “spotty” through most of McDavid’s years, so I can understand the frustration and caution. But still, these comments don’t strike me as “team first.” Should a team captain talk/think that way?
— yeah I agree it’s not really “captainy” when your in camp and your clearly : “I’m not sure if I’m all in besides wanting to win the cup for sure this year”.
The thing that concerns me isn’t his contract, it’s starting the season off having the right mindset, and the distraction isn’t helping. The Oilers get worked up pretty easily, seem to put too much pressure on themselves, and that affects performance I think. Might have had to do with the slow starts to the season. One or two players being injured or not 100% should not derail a team this good
You look at the Panthers and what is in media about them, they seem way more chill. That doesn’t mean I don’t hate them :). I’m not sure if Connor can, but just show up ready to do your job, as the coaches are asking, and have fun. It’s a fun game. Don’t over think it. It’s a long season, and being too intense over time is mentally tiring
The vast majority of Southern Florida barely acknowledges the existence of the Panthers. The team is based in Sunrise Florida on the edge of the everglades 20 miles and half an hour from Fort Lauderdale and 45 miles and over an hour drive from Miami. They were a hot topic in area for a few weeks in May and June as defending champs.
A post game media scrum during a Panthers regular season game against half the teams in the league probably has 3 to 4 reporters at it. The Sun Sentinel, the paper with the highest circulation in South Florida has had 5 whole stories on the Panthers since the beginning of August only one of which had anything to do with the on ice product (Tkachuk injury update).
Its a lot easier to be chill when you’re the defending champs, particularly when almost no one is paying attention other than the relatively small rabid fan base and the radio station paid by the team.
That raises the question of what the Oilers would/could do if Savoie and Howard are not immediately impactful and Skinner continues to be Skinner.
With virtually no cap space and a dearth of trade assets, how could that be rectified?
I think maybe William of Occam had the answer your looking for, the simplest explanation.
After a second devastating loss he needed time to unwind and recenter by taking the summer off and not seriously considering the upcoming season.
After Leon’s wedding is close to training camp and time to gear up for the season, including getting the extension out of the way so it isn’t a distraction.
He knows he will get whatever he asks for so he has to decide what’s best for him, his family and the team.
That requires him to pick cap hit and term which he needs to consider before he sets the contract with his ask.
He’s taking his time because he has the burden to get it right, so he is discussing it with the relevant people.
This fits with what we know of his personality, his verbal, and what Occam says.
I’m a bit conflicted, but overall I agree that we have to simply believe McDavid: He’s considering all options, including free agency.
I am pretty sure that his agent and the Oilers people can pretty well figure out the number on a shorter term contract that would maximize cap space for the team and reward Conner for his accomplishments. I highly doubt much thinking needs to go on in that department.
I’m also pretty sure he doesn’t need a ton of more money to be “set for life.” I have no problem with him wanting to earn all he can, but I can’t really seeing him *needing* to think too hard about that either. Maybe he wants to be the highest paid guy. That seems a little silly to me, but maybe it’s a thing.
the simplest thing to me is that he sorta kinda halfway wants out to try to win somewhere else, but at the same time thinks there is a pretty good chance of winning it all right here this year. If he takes that gamble, and they don’t win, and he has no contract, where does that leave the team?
I think that’s where the conflict lies in his mind
Stauff alluded to expecting the Oilers to add on the waiver wire in early October – they were talking about goaltending when he said that.
A caller alluded to 2 X $1.25MM for Podz and Stauff said no chance. At least $500K higher. I agree. Low 2’s for term. His floor is set.
A call alluded to 2 X $4MM for Ek and Stuff suggested Overhardt likely things he can get 3 years for Ek – even at 36. That one scares me.
— shoot I had what I thought was good post about contract status stuck in “spam”
It is possible, if you used the owners name, it got caught by the filter. The filter isn’t always consistent since it is in a couple of your posts below but I have had posts held up for review but if I copy and repost with the name changed to “the owner” instead of his actual name it goes through no issues.
it really makes no sense that his name is still on the list for unacceptable words.
— cMd has earned the right to decide
— managements strategy that “we will let him decide” is either a smoke screen or incompetence or a way to deflect what they know will occur.
— Managements job is to convince our captain that he ought to sign for max 8 years as that’s the most desirable outcome for the franchise.
— I think they are giving themselves an out by telegraphing “hey he gets to decide”.
1) It’s the most desirable outcome for the franchise because of what 8 years means for the valuation of the enterprise
2) it’s the most desirable outcome for the franchise because as the cap grows they will have a longer competitive window as his contact becomes a relative bargain.
— So I get that projecting “we will give him all the time he needs” is being pitched as a being the nice guy. But that’s not how business works.
— Max term is best result for the franchise owner throws kitchen sink to make it happen.
— I get media gets fed and fans listen to an alternative scenario
— From Conners perspective I get why he doesn’t want to commit for 8 years and I won’t blame if he signs for less.
— I will however blame the organization more and won’t buy the “we have to respect his choice”.
— It would be a fail and sub optimal by the organization if he signs for less than 8 years
— no verbiage or recasting if he signs shorter changes reality that organization loses if no max.
— The owner isn’t going to be happy with a “well he got to decide”. The owner wants what’s best for him. In this case both the owner and fans are aligned : 8 years is best.
We wait
No one is talking about eight years. It could happen, but my suspicion is that you’ll be disappointed at the outcome. McDavid’s prime years are behind him, he wants to land on a winner. The question is does he feel Edmonton is that team? Bowman has added pieces, it may not be enough. An organization can only pretzel itself so much, and I do think the Oilers have been doing that for a long time.
If McDavid leaves, the world will keep turning. Management has to be looking past the McDavid contract, and planning for life without him. The organization can’t follow the McDavid plan because he may not be here. So, letting him decide and then taking action is far better than further compromising the team in hopes he sees it as good enough. Don’t overpay for a goaltender who isn’t a clear upgrade would be an example.
— Im prepared to be disappointed. And agree it’s been telegraphed.
— Main point is it’s a fail full stop by the organization. Looking at it through the business lense as Katz would : recognize that it’s a failure no matter how it gets pitched or deflected by the current management team.
— Not signing 8 years is a tell. One that many have opined on.
— I don’t know what I do t know but I do know that if I was him I can see why he’s not decided.
— I know what I need to do but I don’t know if I have the strength to do it”
All great points. I think Katz would be pushing, but the Oilers 10-year track record with McDavid is a downbeat.
— I also am just fascinated by this topic as the financial implications and valuation as well as the relationship between management ownership and players is in full display.
— Hockey teams are akin to boutique family owned businesses: so there is a lot at stake and a lot of its future as we emerged from the DoD
The team has seven playoff appearances in his 10 seasons, (after joining a team that was 28th out of 30 with 62 point) 2 division finals, 1 conference final and 2 Stanley Cup finals with 4 of those five in the last 4 seasons. During the early part of that tenure, the team had 2 of its top 3 defenseman at the time incur career altering injuries and had a 3rd suffering a devastating loss to his family. McDavid signed a somewhat reduced post ELC contract, but then unprecedented events entirely outside the control of the NHL caused the salary cap to flatline for over 6 seasons causing more cap limitations than any cap errors they made themselves. Against this, the team has been right there and getting really close to the ultimate goal.
Obviously that goal is to win the Stanley Cup, but to call the track record a downbeat is excessively harsh. The Oiler were arguably the second best team in the playoffs the last 3 seasons and top 4 for the last 4. They have so far failed on their mission to win the Stanley Cup, but they are not failures as an organization, team or individuals.
I think it’s been a disappointing decade. Perhaps I’m alone, but will stand by the original statement.
— stuff stuck in “spam”. I didn’t use any bad words : promise !
I think the organization just doesn’t want to push him away. He’s a keeper. It may be as simple as that.
— yeah but push hard for max. I’m sure behind scenes that’s what Katz is doing. He not just going to defer to this to management to say “well we respect him and his decision” IMO
— 8 years is worth a ton more to the owner
Unfortunately for management, when you’re negotiating with the best player in the league, the ball is not in your court.
He has 31 other teams that are happily willing to sign him if he were to let them, the management has 1 player to sign, they aren’t able to leverage the “there are multiple players similar to you, we want you but you better make a decision quick because we will sign someone else” scenario.
Mcdavid gets all the time he wants because he is in control. When you are 1 of 1, you have 100% leverage.
I understand that the org would like to sign him for 8 years, but if he doesn’t want to sign any 8 offer period, no matter the offer or structure, how can that be their fault?
— “it’s not my fault” is what they are pitching
— if the oilers were better run for the last 10 years of his tenure there would not be a hesitation to resign (that’s why FLA resigns all their guys who can’t wait to put pen to paper)
— that’s why the owner would be involved: he’s not going to accept the “we will wait” narrative when it’s his equity valuation. The fans seem to be comfortable with this. But the owner behind scenes isn’t being idle waiting to hear back IMO
— Sure he still might not sign long term.
It is not reasonable to suggest that the cap hit on an 8-year contract would not be materially (like $3MM) higher than on a, say, 2 or even 4 year contract.
Lets be real here.
An 8-year contract reduces the amount of cap available to help the team win next year and in the few years after – end stop.
McDavid wants to win.
Ownership wants to win (VERY much – I know this).
There is more than one rational argument here.
Barkov didn’t extend until October 8, 2021 on his current contract just before season opener prior to become a UFA. Verhaghe was extended on October 8, 2024 after he became eligible to play out his contract. Reinhart, Bennett and Ekblad all played out the final year of their contract and extended only days before become UFA’s. That’s after already winning a cup. Marchand could have been extended any day after he was dealt for at the deadline but waited to June 30, the day before free agency before signing an extension. Forsling was extended in Mar 2024, a little over 3 months before he would become a free agent.
I believe that accounts for ever signing of every truly meaningful UFA potential player that Florida has extended on the current roster. Not one of them was extended quicker than Leon Draisaitl was last summer. If McDavid signs before the start of the regular season, he will have extended sooner than any on Florida Panthers.
If your going to make a statement a fact to support your argument, you should actually check to see if your “fact” has any validity. The information is all readily available on the internet.
Max term is not necessarily “what’s best for the franchise” if the primary goal is to win a Stanley Cup in the short term.
A 2-year term would come with a much lower cap hit than an 8 year term. Sure, it doesn’t “have to” but it would almost certainly if we are being reasonable.
The above position has merit and is a viable opinion – but its not a fact.
Can you imagine the recruiting (tampering) that would go on in the Team Canada dressing room if McDavid is not signed by the Olympics?
I’m much more concerned about a post-Olympic let down than that.
The Oilers have unfortunately let winning what I’ll describe as “winning their Cup” lead to disappointment.
Beating the Flames. Making the Finals the first time. Let downs after both.
And after Four Nations last year as well.
McDavid cares about the Olympics…and unless you are a true great, having two big prizes on your radar for one year with that much responsibility can be a real test.
We’ll see what he’s made of.
— I’m totally in the minority on this but Men’s Olympic Hockey doesn’t do it for me
— It takes away from the athletes in other sports where the Olympics truly is what they trained for all their sporting life
— The Olympics is a gangster criminal racket that generates so much additional money with the hockey games
— But kudos to so many of the players who clearly value the opportunity to represent their country : for no money (and help the IOC get richer off their backs).
— And I get why the NHL would want to have Hockey shine on an international presence that they don’t have like say NFL or NBA
Everyone will be recruiting Crosby too.