When it comes to prospect evaluation, you can’t go fast enough to get there early. So, when we look at this 2015 rookie camp roster, there’s many things we could know just based on draft pedigree, but tons we simply have to wait until the player tells us who he is.
Examples: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse were high high high draft picks and success was likely when we viewed them in 2015’s camp.
There are a bunch of fellows on this list who were still matriculating as prospects. Now, you may not believe that Laurent Brossoit (over 200 NHL games if you include playoffs), Jordan Oesterle (408 NHL games in the regular season), Ethan Bear (275), Caleb Jones (248), Jujhar Khaira (337) and Anton Slepyshev (102) were successful NHLers, and I respect that but disagree.
So, in 2015 fall, when we were observing these young men, we could not know the final number of actual NHL players numbered nine. That’s a fine result, owing in part to the fact Edmonton needed players like Mars needs women.
So, how best to evaluate these rookie rosters?
THE FIVE YEAR RULE
For many years, going back to the beginning of this blog, I’ve adopted a rule that says we let the player develop over a five year period. Kids get drafted at 18 or later, so that means age 23 is the period when you can make the call.
There are outliers, Brandon Davidson took an extra year, but if a player is drafted by your team, there’s a good chance you’ll know by then. Earlier in some cases, but these young prospects have real talent while also facing exceptional competition.
What about players signed later? What about Viljami Marjala, as an example? Well, he was in fact drafted in 2021, by the Buffalo Sabres. So Marjala’s five year window will close at the end of the 2025-26 season. I think he has shown there is an NHL talent via his most recent season in Liiga, but he’ll get another year before we have to make the call. If he can slam AHL goaltending at a rate that gets him 40 points in 72 games, I’ll consider him NHL calibre. You may disagree, and that’s fine, but for me that’s a reasonable line in the sand.
OLDER SIGNINGS
What about older signings, like David Tomasek, or Atro Leppänen? Their time is now, and it could be one and done if these men don’t make an NHL impact in 2025-26. Tomasek is in a great spot with the Oilers, this team needs wingers and a RH center, too. If he has ten fingers and toes and can play the style Kris Knoblauch prefers, then music!
Leppänen has a far more difficult path to NHL games this season. He is an offensive player who is a defenseman, and Knoblauch likes puck movers with speed but attention to detail defensively is also required. This player also faces Everest in terms of the LH depth chart in Edmonton. It’s one of the best in the NHL. So, he may not make it.
However, it’s possible Leppänen doesn’t make it while also being a better player than Tomasek. It happens often. An example comes from the beginning of this piece. Anton Slepyshev was a better player than many listed above, but he played in just over 100 NHL games.
There’s a further wrinkle to the evaluation, and that can be expressed by looking at Josh Samanski. He is 23 years old, a big center and something close to an ideal addition for these Oilers. Big, strong centers almost always rise to the NHL, no matter how poor their offense (example Chris VandeVelde).
So, we have Samanski in the Oilers system with his five-year window complete. How do we proceed in evaluating? First, he is not an NHL player at this time. That doesn’t exclude him from being a strong prospect, so we check down to players who didn’t pop in the first five years while also playing zero (or few) AHL or NHL games.
In the fifth year after he was drafted, Fernando Pisani played the entire season in the AHL. He scored at a pedestriam level (52 games, 12-13-25) for the era, and returned to the AHL for a second season. He posted 26-34-60 totals in 79 games, year two with the Hamilton Bulldogs. The following season was divided just about evenly between Hamilton and Edmonton. After that, Pisani was an NHL player.
How do we apply that to Samanski? It isn’t a perfect fit, but there are things in common. So, here’s how I’ll proceed. Experts tell me that 200 minutes in the NHL is a good ‘early indicator’ for young players. If they’re in the world’s best league and playing every night, chances are some success is taking place, but not always. Experts recommend 200 five-on-five minutes for any player in evaluation.
So, if we check down to the AHL and look for ‘early distant indicators’ can we settle on 20 games? You could do 15 games, but these are rookies and 10 minutes a night is more likely than 14 minutes.
So, let’s agree to meet back here after 20 AHL games and evaluate Samanski. Fair? I think it is.
I’ll post the lines and pairings as soon as they are up, and I hope you enjoy the game! I wrote a piece that dovetails with today’s post at The Athletic. It is here.
New for The Athletic: Are Edmonton Oilers achieving more in procuring young talent than in the past?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6626366/2025/09/14/edmonton-oilers-prospects-game-2025/
Berezkin only played 13:12 today – likely do to Loco taking like 7 penalties and he doesn’t kill, to my knowledge.
He had an assist and was even in a 5-4 loss.
Seeing that this is potentially Connors last year on this team I see little value in repeating the exercises of the last two years, definition, insanity, et al.
I’ve said it before, but why not retool around McDavid by utilizing and maximizing his best strengths?
He shouldn’t be a mucker in the corners scrapping over the puck. He should be flying sorties through the opposition shock and awing opponents.
That is what he does best.
He should do more of that.
Every team mate on the ice should have 1 single goal, get the puck and give the puck to Connor.
He’s a Striker and the best damn Striker in the world.
Every ounce of energy he spends defending deep in his own zone and mucking in the side boards only serves to use up his energy at best reducing his Striking, or lead to his getting injured at worst.
Pair him with some Diggers, Hyman plays that role well, and get one of them to follow behind him looking for scrappy seconds on the goalie and have the other winger go wide leaving McDavid with a passing option if he chooses to swing around the net.
The man is obviously frustrated. Showing him a success path would ensure his resigning here.
The longer we wait for a McD extension the concerning the situation becomes.
What reason would he have to delay signing other than seriously considering a possible Oilers exit within the next few years.
Needs to be signed by game 1 if not Stan needs to see a list of teams from Connor and then the unthinkable has to happen for the betterment of this franchise for years to come.
Relax fellas… there will be balance again…
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQIXNcdnEycKGso_RH9uELPPss7btUamUNB_AuRIB5f2RSIPPU9DDcUHQuZ3QCdWycM-rs&usqp=CAU
Sorry LT… on this day 1982…
Wondering if Carter Hart will indeed land back in Philly.
The Flyers have just traded goaltender Ivan Fodotov (cap hit $ 3.275 million) to Columbus for a 6th round pick.
The Flyers now have $3.645 million in cap space.
God damn, Bogdan Yakimov… I remember McLellan being super excited to see him play in these rookie games. I had to look, only 1 NHL game. At least he can share a story with a beer around his buddies. That Leftorium is crazy to look at these years later. Then there’s that Griffin Reinhart guy… 37 NHL games, le sigh.
50% of all NHL draft picks never pay a single game, so at least those two guys beat those odds.
Talk is just talk but the verbal on Tomasek, in general and also based on how he’s looked at recent skates, the organization expects this guy to make the Oilers and I’m gleaning they think he can be more than a 12F/13F.
I’ve yet to see him play. Look forward to next Sunday in the split squads.
On Leppanen, he is a key task for Chaulk and Keith M. this year – can they get some structure in to his defensive game? The runway given his age is likely short, that is, NHL games this season at some point, I would think.
I’ve yet to see him play. Look forward to next Sunday in the split squads.
I agree with this – at his age, if he’s going to make it, he needs to be able to be an impact top 6 player in the AHL this season.
I was excited to get eyes on him for the first time on Friday and he blew my reasonable expectations out of the water (along with Carfagna – and those two have instantly made me more excited for the Condors’ season).
Hutson in a similar boat (a year old, less pro experience).
A week ago, as an NCAA player, Issac Howard had never even attended a pro camp and I’m not sure he still has as, really, it was one on-ice day of a “rookie camp” and had never played a professional game or game against a pro player (and the flames had full time AHL players from last year on their back-end).
Everything is brand new to this young man and it may take a bit of time at each stage.
In Friday’s game, he got better from the 1st to the 2nd to the 3rd. I suspect to might be quite prominent now in game 2.
Go Ike!
Seeing some parallels between Howard and the Flames Matt Coronato.
Coronato was a first round pick in 2021 one year before Howard.
Both players spent 2 years playing in the USHL…then went on to the NCAA.
Coronato played only two seasons in college while Howard played three before turning pro.
Coronato split his first pro season between the AHL (41 games) and the NHL (34 games) before sticking as a Flames last season with 24 goals and 47 points. He recently signed a 7 year deal at $6.5 million AAV.
It’s funny how things often like to align themselves. We are entering the second half for the star players, or the third act, and I think there has been a shift in the organization, and it’s because of Bowman, and for the better
A few were unhappy with the hiring, I wasn’t sure if the banishment might have set his connectedness back too much, or of his record with the Hawks. He had a hit with Bob and talked about the new players
Stan has a very realistic view on those not established. He likes sideburns it seems. He gets what is realistic to expect, and the way he talks about guys, if I was new to the team or young and listening I would be encouraged, would feel like I was being given a real shot. That has not always been the case, at least since Slats left. There always seemed to be some weird thing the team didn’t like that was not always spoken publicly, or expectations were not realistic
Looking at it now, Stan grew up around great teams and has been talking hockey with one of the greatest hockey minds of all time, whenever he wants to. He probably absorbed a thing or two. And we know Scotty is watching the Oilers and they are getting expert opinion for free. Or maybe they are paying him
Years ago I commented on some hockey site that had a thing that I think was ask Scotty a question. He actually answered me and that was kind of a thrill, having been a Habs fan especially, pre Oilers
The handling of Slepyshev was such a screw-up.
The pile of wasted talent from that era is absurd.
Sleppy had 18-20 goal scoring written all over him for years while doing the grunt work for Leon.
And the Oilers weren’t going to win without developing more young talent. Slepyshev was right there and the Oilers didn’t give him full torque. Just a terrible decision.