When it comes to prospect evaluation, you can’t go fast enough to get there early. So, when we look at this 2015 rookie camp roster, there’s many things we could know just based on draft pedigree, but tons we simply have to wait until the player tells us who he is.

Examples: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse were high high high draft picks and success was likely when we viewed them in 2015’s camp.

There are a bunch of fellows on this list who were still matriculating as prospects. Now, you may not believe that Laurent Brossoit (over 200 NHL games if you include playoffs), Jordan Oesterle (408 NHL games in the regular season), Ethan Bear (275), Caleb Jones (248), Jujhar Khaira (337) and Anton Slepyshev (102) were successful NHLers, and I respect that but disagree.

So, in 2015 fall, when we were observing these young men, we could not know the final number of actual NHL players numbered nine. That’s a fine result, owing in part to the fact Edmonton needed players like Mars needs women.

So, how best to evaluate these rookie rosters?

THE FIVE YEAR RULE

For many years, going back to the beginning of this blog, I’ve adopted a rule that says we let the player develop over a five year period. Kids get drafted at 18 or later, so that means age 23 is the period when you can make the call.

There are outliers, Brandon Davidson took an extra year, but if a player is drafted by your team, there’s a good chance you’ll know by then. Earlier in some cases, but these young prospects have real talent while also facing exceptional competition.

What about players signed later? What about Viljami Marjala, as an example? Well, he was in fact drafted in 2021, by the Buffalo Sabres. So Marjala’s five year window will close at the end of the 2025-26 season. I think he has shown there is an NHL talent via his most recent season in Liiga, but he’ll get another year before we have to make the call. If he can slam AHL goaltending at a rate that gets him 40 points in 72 games, I’ll consider him NHL calibre. You may disagree, and that’s fine, but for me that’s a reasonable line in the sand.

OLDER SIGNINGS

What about older signings, like David Tomasek, or Atro Leppänen? Their time is now, and it could be one and done if these men don’t make an NHL impact in 2025-26. Tomasek is in a great spot with the Oilers, this team needs wingers and a RH center, too. If he has ten fingers and toes and can play the style Kris Knoblauch prefers, then music!

Leppänen has a far more difficult path to NHL games this season. He is an offensive player who is a defenseman, and Knoblauch likes puck movers with speed but attention to detail defensively is also required. This player also faces Everest in terms of the LH depth chart in Edmonton. It’s one of the best in the NHL. So, he may not make it.

However, it’s possible Leppänen doesn’t make it while also being a better player than Tomasek. It happens often. An example comes from the beginning of this piece. Anton Slepyshev was a better player than many listed above, but he played in just over 100 NHL games.

There’s a further wrinkle to the evaluation, and that can be expressed by looking at Josh Samanski. He is 23 years old, a big center and something close to an ideal addition for these Oilers. Big, strong centers almost always rise to the NHL, no matter how poor their offense (example Chris VandeVelde).

So, we have Samanski in the Oilers system with his five-year window complete. How do we proceed in evaluating? First, he is not an NHL player at this time. That doesn’t exclude him from being a strong prospect, so we check down to players who didn’t pop in the first five years while also playing zero (or few) AHL or NHL games.

In the fifth year after he was drafted, Fernando Pisani played the entire season in the AHL. He scored at a pedestriam level (52 games, 12-13-25) for the era, and returned to the AHL for a second season. He posted 26-34-60 totals in 79 games, year two with the Hamilton Bulldogs. The following season was divided just about evenly between Hamilton and Edmonton. After that, Pisani was an NHL player.

How do we apply that to Samanski? It isn’t a perfect fit, but there are things in common. So, here’s how I’ll proceed. Experts tell me that 200 minutes in the NHL is a good ‘early indicator’ for young players. If they’re in the world’s best league and playing every night, chances are some success is taking place, but not always. Experts recommend 200 five-on-five minutes for any player in evaluation.

So, if we check down to the AHL and look for ‘early distant indicators’ can we settle on 20 games? You could do 15 games, but these are rookies and 10 minutes a night is more likely than 14 minutes.

So, let’s agree to meet back here after 20 AHL games and evaluate Samanski. Fair? I think it is.

I’ll post the lines and pairings as soon as they are up, and I hope you enjoy the game! I wrote a piece that dovetails with today’s post at The Athletic. It is here.