
I suspect this is going to be a season of tumult by and for Oilers fans. I don’t see any way around it. Honestly. Since we’re at the point where pitchers and catchers report for their eye tests, let’s have the first of what I expect to be many conversations.
You aren’t helping in this process. Quite right. Beyond ‘we don’t know what we don’t know’ what would you like me to say?
You say you’re not going to talk about it but then you do. The idea about writing around a subject is to chronicle events in the life of said subject. So, if I’m writing about the Oilers and not writing about McDavid’s journey, then I’m not really writing about the Oilers. I don’t write about it every day because I think people have anxiety about it. I don’t like to increase the anxiety, since I know what it can do to a human.
So, yesterday on the Lowdown, you said McDavid will sign. Correct. I have sources (not Oilers sources) who remain steadfast in their belief 97 will sign. Bob said 102 percent certain yesterday. Stan Bowman is confident. So, that’s as close as anyone can get, I think. However, we don’t know what we don’t know.
Are you 102 percent certain? No.
If you were in Vegas, would you bet your house on it? No.
You are zero help in this. I have only one thing going for me. I’m honest. I give you my view, and sometimes more than one. In this case there are two views. I believe McDavid will sign. I also believe that if he’s leaving, the approach being used by the captain is the most intelligent path forward.
What do you mean? Listen to his words, watch his actions. This is not a player who is withdrawing from his team, or the city he plays in. McDavid made a special appearance at the Morgan Wallen concert the other night. Would an individual who was leaving do those things? Hard to believe. McDavid has been here 10 years, we’ve gotten to know him. He’s a straight shooter. There’s no sense of distance between he and the fans, none that I can see.
SO, that’s good! It is good, but there’s also the matter of no new contract. That’s a difficult thing for fans to digest. It should also be an extremely tense time for ownership and management. And yet, nothing from Daryl Katz. He’s an owner who communicates during important moments. Stan Bowman said yesterday he’s confident. So, I choose to believe that if Katz thought his team was in imminent danger, the tone of the proceedings would be far different. Katz would get out in front of this, in my opinion. I don’t think he’s worried about his brand, and that should give fans some hope.
What’s going on? I think there are a few things. The league is coming out of the pandemic with real walking around money and know one knows how it will be spent. For McDavid, the king of the cap hill, it might be best to sign a series of one-year deals in order to optimize the process.
I hate you. I think a Stanley Cup is the most important thing for him, but being the highest-paid player has appeal, and the NHLPA would want him to set precedent with the next signing.
He got married, does that change things? Yes of course, but people shouldn’t demonize his family over this contract. McDavid has grown as a person in the last decade and found his person. That’s something to celebrate. The things said about Janet Jones back in the day were noxious, and I have no time for such silliness. People said she authored Gretzky’s move to Los Angeles so she could be a bigger star. Janet Gretzky had five children with 99, and they build a family together. Let people live. That’s always the better way.
So we just sit here and wait? Yes. And if we’re older we repeat the serenity prayer: “GOD grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.” Let it be.
On the Lowdown today, I’ll have Bagged Milk as my feature guest and we’ll roll out the lines and pairings, plus talk Jays and Elks. We’re on Sports 1440 noon to 2pm and on You Tube.
I think McDavid might just go year-to-year for awhile, playing out his contract every season.
Draisaitl and Bouchard, arguably, give McDavid the best chance of winning, if the Oilers can manage the rest of the roster. Considering the loss/lack of youth and drafts picks, this will be a year-to-year challenge.
So McDavid might just take it year-to-year.
So this season might be the first of many, where this could be McDavid’s last year as an Oiler.
There is nothing like the fierce urgency of now. All we have is today.
If/when the possibility of winning in Edmonton passes, or when he accomplishes what he wants to in Edmonton, or when his wife and family develop different plans, it becomes easy to leave without a fuss.
Interesting idea. He takes all the injury risk on himself though. Do you think he could take out insurance for that kind of thing?
Apparently, yes: https://www.eqgroup.com/professional_athlete/
Sure, insurance companies gladly share the risk among all of us lucky policy holders. No risk to profits.
I mentioned year to year in the article. It makes sense.
Wouldn’t that reduce his trade value should it come to that?
How much would another team pay if it was for only 1 year or a fraction of one.
Absolutely. However, if McDavid wants a one-year deal, the Oilers will sign it imo.
I expect you’re right but it would tighten the screws on the team even further.
Per Tony B:
Kris Knoblauch says Zach Hyman will not be ready for the team’s season opener on October 8th.
Hyman & the team are targeting a November 1st return. #Oilers
This would permit them to put him on LTIR (they would only get $3.8MM in LTIR reserves) but it would allow them run 14F and kick the can on some decisions down the road (or 8D or 3G if they did claim/trade for one).
https://x.com/jimmathesonnhl/status/1968796948711850157?s=61
If Zach Hyman isn’t back until Nov 1 as he rehabs his dislocated wrist after June surgery he will miss 12 games in October. Needless to say that is significant. Who plays RW in his spot? No sure things. Tomasek, Mangiapane, Kapanen, Savoie? None is close to Hyman
We don’t know what Tomasek is until we see him in some games.
As the coach basically told us yesterday, he’ll try “good vets” before high skilled/high pedigree rookies in the top 6 – Mangiapane and Henrique in the top 6 in group A and Kapanen with Drai in Group B:
EDM lines & pairings – Group 2:
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Janmark – Frederic – Howard
Pitlick – Hamblin – Hutson
Clattenburg – Samanski – Jarventie
Storehouse – Copponi – Lafreniere
Nurse – Walman
Kulak – Emberson
Dineen – Brown
Millman – Prokop
Savoie was with Nuge in Group A, and that’s just fine, but this coach has said he won’t try the young guys in the top 6 and we are seeing it already.
Kapanen was the worst offensive forward on the team last year but he’s with Drai because……?
Looking like Kapanen may be Knob’s blind spot.
For the answer re-read your own post. You answered it not once but twice.
”he’ll try good vets before high skilled rookies”
That’s the coachiest option. Coaches gonna coach.
Knoblauch said he doesn’t want to elevate the kids to the top 6 and then have to demote them if they struggle. In other words he wants to be confident they are setup for success vs expectations.
Has anyone noticed that hockey players don’t seem to be carrying a ton of muscle mass these days?
At the Marner presser the other day, he looked downright scrawny.
I’ve noticed the last two playoff runs that many of the Oilers weren’t looking as built as I expected them to be.
Starting to wonder if modern sports science is advocating something different in hockey than in other sports. Other athletes are adding muscle. Even in non-traditional sports for that to be the case.
Not sure if people are noticing the same. Struck me as odd.
Too much muscle slows you down. Generally, leaner means faster. Specifically re hockey players, they’ll put muscle on in the summer (most of them), and they shed it during the season because there’s very little time to lift weights.
Composition is vital. Fast twitch fibres, built via high intensity resistance exercises, increase speed. More muscle equals more speed. It is important for athletes to train the muscle they build so that it is responsive to the movements they enact in their particular sport. So, hockey players should have at least some on ice time during their off season training. Additionally, muscle is the best way to protect from the insults to which competitive sport subjects the body. More muscle equals less likelihood of injury.
They are carrying less muscle mass in their upper bodies but the lower half is another story. Don’t need to be jacked up top, just need to have enough armour to protect. Lower half needs to be strong and explosive.
Hockey players tend to be asymmetrical. Skating posture along with handedness leads to unique issues with shoulder girdle and back. Training focused on symmetrical muscle acquisition (again, fast twitch fibres are preferable) on shoulders and back is important. Upper body muscle mass is a priority. Crosby is a great example of a body maximized for playing hockey. He has great upper body development, and his lower body is massive, so big that it makes his upper body appear small in comparison.
For the most part, there are long standing narratives that muscle slows athletes down, that it makes them less flexible, and it hinders movement. The narrative is not borne out by observation of high performance athletes. Consider Olympic weightlifters, the athletes who consistently produce the quickest movements (as evidenced by research projects at several olympics), have some of the highest proportion of fast twitch fibres, and are remarkably flexible.
Protection and strength up top should still be a thing. Not a fan of the current default hockey player build.
Purely by happenstance, for 4 or 5 years I had the great fortune of training alongside professional hockey players during their summer, off season training. A family friend was a major player in creating and running training programming for athletes from a variety of sports. The hockey players sessions were intense. They combined Olympic lifting with band training, some kettlebell stuff and body building, ran sprint intervals and some distance, did insane core exercises every day, and on ice sessions 2 or 3 times a week. Their warm ups were great workouts!
Anyway, by the time they headed off to their respective camps they had put on noticeable muscle mass and their body fat was low – maybe 8% on average? (which is crazy!) The muscle mass was distributed evenly. Of course, their large muscle groups were larger than the smaller muscle groups, but all muscle groups were increased in size. Veterans put on muscle, but not nearly as much as the younger guys. Some of the latter would add more than 20 pounds of muscle. High t-levels combined with good nutrition and serious training has major effects on body composition and maximizing performance.
My friend was clear, muscle is key to force generation. Nearly all sport performance can be reduced to force generation. The greatest athletes tend to produce force in superlative fashion. Of course, there are other important attributes and skill at play, too. 🙂
Apologies for long windedness, I find the subject remarkably interesting.
interesting lines???/
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
50m
McDavid w/Tomasek & Mangiapane to start camp. RNH lines up at centre w/Henrique & Savoie.
So Draisatl with Podkolzin and maybe Fredrick in other group? That would be a big mean line. Or eventually swap Savoie and Fredrick?
A Speculation – If we find out that the ask from #97 was “get us a damn goalie” and they didn’t do it…oh boy…
David Pagnotta
@TheFourthPeriod
Per sources, there is an expectation free agent forward Michael McLeod will be joining the Hurricanes this season. Carolina also checked on Carter Hart, as I and others have previously reported.
Good on them – they are supposedly a forward thinking organization. Clearly they are not going to let the media driven narrative get in the way of improving their team.
He’s made it clear his priority is to win the cup.
He already has generational wealth. More is better but not THE priority.
So does he truly believe this team can win? What does HE think the holes are? Have those holes / will those holes / can those holes be solved now, this season. And so does he believe this is the right team at the right time.
Does he believe this is the right management team to succeed? They made mistakes last year …
Money. Maybe not THE most important factor but important all the same. To state the obvious and as we all know, the cap is going up significantly. What bar should he set himself against. This year’s cap or the one to come?
Should he take less to help the team win? Does he believe management would use “his” money wisely. And again against what cap is he taking a team discount.
Term. So based on these factors so far, what is the right term? What is the right decision?
But then consider these things.
Injury. He’s had two doozies. Either one, the shoulder (can we say Klefbom) and especially the knee could have been career ending. Should he sign long or take the chance …
Family … who knows.
Friends … it seems clear he’s got some on the team. Is it enough?
Finally … how does he weigh the impact of delaying his decision on the impact it will have on the team and this season.
And on the same point, if he believes signing short term is best, even though he really wants to stay with Edmonton, is he concerned about the turmoil that decision will have regardless of his good intentions.
This is not easy.
Win or not, money or not, term or not, risk or not, family, friends, turmoil or not?
He has a lot of balls to juggle.
And he’s more than earned the right to make a personal choice.
But as a fan it’s sure hard to wait …
We should all just leave it alone for a while. I can’t imagine the constant questions and comments are at all helpful. We might be creating our own demise …
Fair comments, but McDavid isn’t helping the situation either. Why be so cryptic in these interviews when he knows the fan base is hanging on every word? Also, he has had months, if not years, to think about all of these things. Surely if there was a will, he could sit down with management and hash it out in a few days if not hours.
I know he lives in a totally different world than 99% of us, but still you’d think a potential 135 million dollar decision might take priority in one’s life. It’s all I would be thinking about every waking hour of the day!
He has earned the right to keep his options open and take some time to determine his families future.
With that being said, if one decides they are going to move on how does one approach the coming year without setting off a torrent of problems?
If he is completely open and just states he will leave at the end of the season the team literally craters around him and he gets eggs thrown at him for the rest of the year.
Exit Management Strategies are a thing.
I get your point, but McDavid has never struck me as a player who enjoys being interviewed. He tends to give cryptic responses more often than not. You look at some players and you can tell they are just more comfortable with the media. I think he is usually just trying to be careful with what he says, which of course comes off as cryptic.
He has to also ask himself the question, can I finally perform at my top level when it matters the most. He must take ownership of the fact that he’s underperformed in the SCF two years running, both offensively and defensively.
This could be a function of the coach running him ragged.
McDavid averaged 24:26 TOI/G in the playoffs.
Sam Reinhart led all Panthers forwards at 21:31
All those extra shifts add up over 22 games.
Team depth proves again to be a massive issue.
I don’t doubt that this is a factor but that’s two years in a row that he has disappeared in the biggest games in the Finals. He must find a way to break free against teams like Florida. He has a tendency to underperform against tight checking teams, regular season or playoffs. I’m just saying that while I understand he’s frustrated losing back to back Finals, for all of his greatness, he was a contributing factor in those losses.
He didn’t look tired – he looked not up for it. Further, great players want to play 40 minutes a night. There is no way he’s complaining the coach played him too much.
Not suggesting he was complaining.
However, if you take on a high end shut down team like Florida when they are much fresher than you, you’re going to have issues.
Barkov played an average of 4 minutes fewer per game in the playoffs.
That adds up over 22 games.
There were 1 or 2 days off between games.
Playing as many as 10 extra shits per game than your opponent cannot be overlooked.
That Florida had LA Kings 2012 levels of energy shouldn’t overlooked either. Especially by the league, it wasn’t that long ago and things came to light after, and Gary was around
Chris Pronger for example averaged… averaged 30+ minutes per game in the SCF and was a beast. There were games in the 2006 Finals where he played 40 minutes. McDavid has no excuse for not meeting the moment. I’m just saying he has to take responsibility for that. Management has made their errors but if he wants a Cup he has to contribute more himself.
I would put it he shouldn’t try to do it all himself
I don’t think that he should try to do it himself either but he has to be better in important games in the SCF.
Per Tony B:
Group 1 – Oilers Main Camp:
Forwards:
McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Henrique, Savoie, Mangiapane, Tomasek, Philp, Griffith, Lewandowski, Lazar, Jones, Petrov, Grubbe, Pitlick, Stefan, Marjala
Defence:
Bouchard, Ekholm, Stecher, Akey, Regula, Stillman, Leppanen, Carfagna
Lines for Group A today (per all the media):
Tomasek-McDavid-Mangiapane
Henrique-RNH-Savoie
Jones-Philp-Lazar
Rh. Pitlick-Marjala-Griffith
Petrov-Grubbe-Lewandowski/Stefan
Ekholm-Bouchard
Stillman-Stecher
Leppanen-Regula
Carfagna-Akey
Skinner
Pickard
—————-
Henrique on wing as we suspected
Tomasek and Mangiapane with McDavid looks over Savoie (Nuge winger suggests 3RW look).
Stecher will Stillman suggesting we’ll see Kulak/Emberson in Group B.
Also, of note, Philp taking line rushes with AHL player – on the outside looking in from the start. Sigh!
100%, until he signs, there will be turmoil. If he is unsigned heading in to the season, a 2-0 deficit will be chaos let alone 2 losses in a row.
At the same time, he could put pen to paper at any moment in time – heck, maybe he’s signed since the last time I checked twitters?
LT mentions the concert walk out – I mention taking time to call Issac Howard and held recruit him during the summer – McDavid is fully committed to this team, right now and he does things that indicate he has not plans on leaving. Maybe he does end up leaving but I don’t see escape plans right now.
What I am going to focus in in the interim is that he looks great (fresh, happy, peak of his powers), he is expressly not happy with his recent game, he wants to prove that 50G was not a one-off and I think he’s set to his best overall, 2-way season of his career. Maybe not 150 points but I have little doubt he recognizes he was poor in the SCF and cost his team goals against and will be a prime McDavid from game 1.
Can you imagine, Prime McDavid and Skinny Stu together at last.
I think McDavid bonded with Frederic as well so there’s that besides Issac choosing to come here. I just can’t see Leon going as deep as he did if Connor was wishy washy about staying. On the other-hand this looks like the exact playbook that Marner used in Toronto where it was fairly successful.This playbook won’t work in Edmonton if Connor strings along the faithful and bolts at free agency his Legacy will take a huge hit.
The Leafs GM didn’t seem to have learned his lesson in Calgary. He should have been on high alert. Maybe higher ups had fingers in the pie, but losing a top two on the team twice, and another who he didn’t notice wanted out, wow
Hopefully Bowman is smarter
The women’s 400m at the World Track and Field Championships lived up to its hype this morning.
Sydney is very, very good.
2nd and 3rd fastest times in history, and finally within reach of the likely doped result from 40 years ago. So probably the two legit fastest times in history.
Two seasons ago, the oilogosphere vociferously proclaimed left shot defensemen could not AND should not play the right side.
Today. Hurrah….Walman is playing the right side.
It seems likely Draisaitl bonded with Podkolzin because he and Vasily were the earliest arrivers on game days and practice days.
Drai mentioned on 32 thoughts that he is generally the earliest arrival to practice and that Podz and Pickard are the next two to show up.
There was discourse like 8-9 years ago around effectiveness of LH-RH pairs vs guys on their off-hands. Some tangible changes in CF%, xGF%, GF%.
I think what we learned since then is when you just have a number of high-end D, it usually washes out. With healthy Ekholm, this is strongest D the team has had in 20 years – if not longer.
This. It’s not the wrong thing to do, but it’s not ideal, Walman would do better at LD
Given they like 2 of their LD and are stuck with the other, Jake is the BPA and doesn’t get killed
There’s really not a lot of options here but wait it out. I have to admit it is impacting my level of engagement this preseason. When I get home from work, I’m not watching Oilers (or NHL) stuff -Jays are a good story right now so it’s not like there’s a hole that’s sitting empty. I don’t know how many preseason games are being broadcast, where I have to go to watch them and whether or not there’s exciting stuff going on behind a paywall on some Oilers app or something. With all I’m shelling out for Sportsnet right now, on top of TSN, DAZN, Apple, Prime Netflix and everywhere else I need to buy my way into to follow the sports I want to watch, I can’t help but consider that after the Jays are done, there’s nothing but hockey on SN and it would be a good way to save a bit if I broke with the Oilers all together. I dunno, it’s just a gloomy kind of vibe right now and it’s not pulling me in like the team does every single year at this time. A short post season for the Jays though (de rigueur) and a strong start could change things quickly, but I have no appetite for 6 months of ‘will he or won’t he?’ If the team starts poorly, this could be an ugly year.
Vibes will be just fine soon.
The team realizes not caring about the regular season last year was a poor approach.
McDavid knows he had a poor year last year (the last couple) and is motivated to get back to 50G and likely 140P levels to once again show the hockey world not only is he the best player but there is a real gap.
The goal is Stanley and they are a contender!
Serenity Now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LW_s6EqOxqY
Indeed this is my own affirmation during this time, though I choose to disregard Lloyd’s subsequent “insanity later” assertion.
All about Trent Frederic (and Andrew Mangiapane).
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6633132/2025/09/17/edmonton-oilers-trent-frederic-stats-2025/