The Oilers lost a game most of us counted as a win last night. The St. Louis Blues took advantage of a little known rule that states you have to play well in the first, second and third periods. Who knew? The road team lost a game they should have won, but there were some encouraging things. We’re on to Dallas.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0)
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1)
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 1-1-0, two points in two games
- Season Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
This isn’t the kind of start one would want, but one year ago the Oilers were 6-8-1 and found a way to make the SCF. Now, Leon Draisalt was averaging 20:53 a night in all game states, Connor McDavid 20:13. The top nine forwards by TOI per game were 29, 97, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark. The youngster, Vasily Podkolzin, was No. 10.
This season, McDavid is averaging 23:32, Draisaitl 22:24. So it’s an increase, but I suspect it is here because coach Kris Knoblauch doesn’t trust the kids. Who you gonna call? Glimmer Twins! The top nine forwards this season by TOI in all game states are 97, 29, 93, Jack Roslovic, Andrew Mangiapane, Vasily Podkolzin, Adam Henrique, Matt Savoie and Trent Frederic. David Tomasek is No. 10. It’s pretty clear that the trust level for Knoblauch on the younger players (and those who are not 100 percent, like Frederic) is not high. Suspect the coach is gambling that Hyman and Janmark can fill in those roles he’s worried about soon enough.
Nuge-McDavid-Mangiapane played 14 minutes, 4-3 shots and 1-0 goals. The expected goals were 58 percent and the HDSC 3-3. Mangiapane finished a sweet passing play for the trio and it is a hopeful sign. The team needs a finisher on that line.
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic played 13:24 and went 9-8 shots, 0-1 goals, 27 percent expected and 0-3 HDSC. This was a rare GA for the trio, first one actually, as the line is 5-1 goals at five-on-five. The expected goals are 44 percent though, so luck was running in a good direction before last night. Roslovic scored a nice PP goal from the net front, he’ll get plenty of time there if he can do that consistently. Roslovic is also 9-5 goals at five-on-five, Edmonton is 15-24 without him. That’s amazing.
Frederic-Henrique-Savoie were on the ice together for 9:34, 3-2 shots, 1-0 HDSC and 64 percent expected. Those are good numbers, but not much happens offensively unless Henrique ignites it. Need more from the wingers.
Howard-Phil-Lazar played 4:51, 1-2 shots, five percent expected goals. The fourth line is basically scrapped for parts in most of these games, I think it was Todd McLellan who started the practice in Edmonton (MacT loved his bottom-six forwards.
The forward usage is curious. I keep saying Knoblauch doesn’t trust his bottom six but maybe the Glimmer Twins want to play all those minutes? So far this season, McDavid (142 minutes), Draisaitl (127 minutes) and the two men together (103 minutes) have been on the ice for 372 of the Oilers total five-on-five minutes. That’s 52 percent of the total five-on-five minutes by Edmonton (via Natural Stat Trick). It was 47 percent last season.
At full strength this season, it’s 54 percent, compared to 47 percent last year. Huh. Leon is 30, McDavid turns 29 in January.
- Nurse-Ekholm 17:27, 6-4 shots, 1-0 goals 72 X-pct 1-0 HDSC
- Kulak-Emberson 17:07, 5-6 shots, 0-1 goals, 54 X-pct 3-0 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:57, 10-6, 0-1 goals, 37 X-pct, 2-4 HDSC
The three pairings rotated evenly, I’ve always wondered what a line matching coach could do in these road games. You don’t get last change, but one would hope the coach recognized which pairing was “on” in a particular evening.
Evan Bouchard was on the wrong side of the winning goal scorer and could not channel his inner Jason Smith (Suter should have been on his ass). The Thomas goal saw McDavid mark him into the zone and the let him loose to defend agains the puck carrier, and he clipped Emberson by accident. Stuff happens. Dvorsky goal was PP, great shot. Calvin Pickard stopped 19 of 22, .864, I don’t blame him for the loss but he is now the owner of a .850 save percentage.
CONDORS
The top four forwards on this list are (in my opinion) are the class of the group. Josh Samanski and Viljami Marjala are coming on now, and Connor Clattenburg has a story to tell that includes surviving in the AHL as a rookie. That’s a tough thing to do. Does he have a Jujhar Khaira future? Don’t know.
I’m not saying this defensive group is the worst I’ve observed in Bakersfield threads, but you’d need to give me time to find an inferior unit. Cam Dineen and Atro Leppanen are supplying offense. Josh Brown is playing low event hockey and I’m pulling for Damien Carfagna.
The goaltending numbers are a mess, and I don’t think either man is at his best, but the coverage has been addled and that’s a fact. Ingram is in preseason, he’ll get there. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic wrote about Ingram this week and I’ll talk to him on the Lowdown about it today. We’re on noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Summarizing!
Lafreniere didn’t dent the twine, but did pick up two assists as Kamloops won 8-2 despite being outshot 43-20 (and winning only 20 of 66 FO’s).
Prospecting takes a break until Freya’s Day.
I’m curious as to how long Bowman continues to watch the Oilers blow leads and games before he does something with the goaltending & defence.
This team isn’t going to make the playoffs playing like this.
The goaltending is definitely not elite , if the team is scoring over 3 a game then it is sufficient , but they are not so if Skinner ( last night) can’t make a great save on 1 of those 3 goals they won’t win. Same with the night before and Pickard ( who is nowhere near the goalie he was last year in this early season) . The D is not helping out on most nights either.
Hyman back will help as Roslovic is heating up as well. Maybe Janmark will help out the bottom 6 upon return? No clue if he does.
The biggest problem with fixing the goaltending when it is apparent Bowman is looking, is he is dealing from a position of weakness because of the team struggling. So no clue who he can even bring in. ( Besides maybe a younger guy like a Devon Levi or Detroit’s Cossa) What would he have to pay for Elvis and would they take back Picard. Who knows.
Let’s hope Hyman draws in Sat and it makes a difference by adding at least a goal a game from someone. It would help
— many of us still recovering from blue jays loss but biebs giving a massive discount for “unfinished business” is just massive.
— there is really something about the magic the team dynamics. It’s not apparently trite: the families really bonded. This team and extended families care and they want to win.
Shocked he opted-in.
Thought he might re-sign but not this.
Well, he did serve up the winning home run. If I was him I’d feel like I owed something and wouldn’t want to leave as a failed mercenary. No gaurantee that the Blue Jays wouldn’t go big game hunting and not have room for him.
hopefully he earns a monster deal next year.
This team just plain refuses to pay attention to the details of the game. It’s been this way for years through numerous coaches and starts right from the leaders of the team throughout pretty much every player in the line up.
Wingers currently being asked to punch above their weight class:
Hyman cannot return soon enough, pushing Mangiapane down to line 3
But the winger concerns are real:
More concerning:
The upper end of Savoie and Howard was supposed to be top 6, they haven’t made it easy to keep them there. The Oilers can’t afford to develop either in this top 6 role at the moment, and they won’t get there this year playing in the bottom 6 with Henrique and Philp as their C.
6 points every 5 games is playoff pace (~96 points). Over the last 5 games, they have achieved that. Through the first 15 games, they are slightly off, but certainly able to make up for it.
But my God, how much more frustrating can this team get? 4 straight blown leads.
This team refuses to get on a roll, even though they seem to be trending towards it.
On the positives, that Leon goal might be the most insane NHL goal I’ve ever seen. The dang nerve to even attempt that shot is amazing, let alone cashing in on it.
Skinner’s career SO SV% is 0.55
Haven’t seen where that ranks overall, but that seems very bad. guessing bottom 20th percentile
Pickard .76
What is SO specialist Mike Morrison doing these days?
Correction – bottom 5% overall
This stat should be given more attention when evaluating goalies
Mikko Koskinen’s is 0.829 which I believe is 2nd all time in NHL shootout history.
Bouchard let Dallas into the game.
Bouchard was essential to the Oilers getting the lead and extending it.
Drai took the penalty leading to the Dallas first goal.
Huge was the one oblivious as Miro H. blew by him to the net for a tap in.
Other than the pp goal, all goals scored by opposition F3. Common occurrence thus far.
Forwards 2 ft gliding back to D zone since post MacT
Nuge oblivious to Miro H. attacking and blowing by him……
Friendly bounce.
Admitidly That was a tough one to pick up. Odd bounce, Trailing D and Hesk can scoot.
But have to backcheck all the way back to your net down the middle of the ice.
Oiler Fs almost never do this
It might honestly be a healthy thing to just take November off. I did it 2 years ago and it worked wonders.
Come back when this team stops doing all the things we know dont work and works through the malaise to detail. You made Connor Mcdavid tired game 13. How did you do that?
I did just that tonight – watched a kids movie with my daughter and scoreboard watched. I’ll catch the highlight package later.
I’ll tune back into the live games when the team starts to give a damn on the ice. Which is usually in mid-December.
I’ve been dialing it back.
Instead of wasting 3 hours in front of the TV, the last bunch of games I’ve gone out to garage to putz around and listened to the radio broadcast. Just like the olden days, minus Rod Phillips. Plus I happily do not miss Gene Principe and the substandard SportsNet presentation. Oiler games have become among the boringest televised sports in North America.
Took the night off from the game and just checked in to see the score and a few comments. Made a world of difference in my attitude.
Last night driving home after my team’s high school hockey game I just waited for the inevitable screw up and it wasn’t worth it. May need to do that for a few more games.
I was just going to ask how old you guys were as I’m about 20 years past the stage when allow the results of my sports teams dictate my mood for longer than a couple of minutes – then I saw the reference to high schoo
Old enough to have watched the dynasty teams on CBC off a 20 inch CRT, but too young at that age to really appreciate the greatness on display, instead of playing mini stick hockey with my sibling. I came of age during the Doug Weight years and was spoiled by a succession of top end goalies who would routinely keep the team in games they had no business being in. Short on depth and talent, those teams were long on heart and battle.
This era of Oilers hockey is in many ways harder to follow as a fan, as the current team has had the aces and kings to win a Cup, but lack some crucial ingredient that those Weight teams had.
We are of the same vintage.
I work too much to get preoccupied with this team for more than a few minutes a day. I spend way more time on the ice now that my kids are old enough. Already taught the 4 year old to skate and the younger one is close. I still love the sound of blades on a fresh sheet of ice; best thing in the world.
Awesome that’s great that you do that with your kids.
We need more dads like you.
To each their own.
Personally, I will continue to watch every game and plan my schedule around the games.
Truth be told, I find myself just as excited for Condors’ games some nights…..
Dallas’ backup beats out the Oilers starter, Stu’s time is coming to an end.
I am not sure that is the reasonable conclusion one can draw here
The expected goals were 4.2 for Dallas, 2.9 for Edmonton
Skinner helped earn us a point tonight
From a Dallas sports writer summarizing the game: “The Stars continued to battle on after that goal but nothing could be done when Stuart Skinner brings his A game.”
Listening to or reading Oilers fan and pundits it’s hard to imagine this, that the “other side” appreciates and dreads what Skinner brings.
Draisaitl had to pull a Forsberg to score while Dallas shooters just picked their spot.
DeSmith was equal to Skinner then bested him in the shoot out.
In the game of mostly goalie, Skinner is a DeSmith level tender, career backup.
The expected stat that matters most is the goalie doing more than expected. Oiler goalies occasionally rob someone, and Stu stole 1 game so far
Other than that I’m just happy when they make regular saves that they often don’t. They play on a pretty good team and have below average results. Simple as that
Oilers are the unluckest team in the league.
Luck is the junction where preparedness meets opportunity.
The Oilers fully own their luck.
I was just reading about their extremely low PDO. “We wait,” to quote our host, for regression. In the meantime, don’t panic. Much to like in recent games.
The sky isn’t falling but this team is so far past having excuses made for it. At this point it’s be the dominant team you should be or you’re not doing well enough
They are right at the point after two Cup appearances that they will become the Bills of the NHL, Connor and Leon being the modern Hawerchuk or whatever other elite offensive guys that couldn’t get it done
Is anyone surprised about this outcome?
Nuge needs a new move…..I already knew that was coming and I’m not a scout.
This team blows.
What has happened to this teams offensive swagger? It has completely vanished.
How many blown leads can this team reach this year? 20? Because they are well on their way.
Have we ever won a shoot out?
Matt Hendricks
Gagner
Omark
Draisaitl is filthy
King Leon with the ol’ Forsbergian deke.
Stop letting McDavid go in the SO.
The way they treat this as an afterthought it galling.
Never been a fan of last OT shift guys going first in the SO. Fatigue is an issue in the SO as well. Give then an extra minute of rest.
He has a 45% shootout percentage. What on Earth are you suggesting is better?
Watched him lately?
I believe Jack said he was 44% in the shootout – that’s, well, VERY good.
The old Skinner flop forward
Skinner didn’t have a chance on any of those goals.
DeSmith didnt seem to have a problem stopping a similar shot by Nuge
The Nuge shot was nowhere close to the Robertson shot – lets be honest.
It always seems to look so easy for the other team
Have we seen Podz on the ice in OT before? OT was all Dallas.
Yes
Last OT game (and he was a material part of a possession shift that tired out the opposition prior to the GWG).
Howard with a whopping 8 mins, Philp and Tomasek with just over 6.
Janmark will be 4C in a couple of weeks lol hopefully Howard is sent down and given top line minutes soon.
Yea he needs to go down and play 20 mins a game.
Howard looks lost on the ice.
Walman pinches because McDavid is covering for him. He’s late in seeing Heiskanen’s rush, motions to Nuge to cover Heiskanen, but Nuge doesn’t see it.
Nice jump into the play by Heiskanen. Almost wonder if Johnston’s miss was actually a pass off the boards to Heiskanen.
It was a breakdown, I guess, but it was also a really nice play by good Dallas players.
Heiskanen is really Nugent-Hopkins man. Walman should be screaming at Nugent-Hopkins that Heiskanen is in his blind spot.
There are way too many OT games league wide this year.
Gotta be some reffing effect in there
Game management brought to you by Fanduel…
My guess is this is an effect of parity in the league.
Jeezuz thats what nurse comes up with after all the time in the world – an icing
Regula is so good, he may legitimately make his pairing the top pairing on any given night. *eye test only*
Next goal wins.
I bet Dallas gets the go ahead goal then finishes with an empty netter.
Well thats a pretty safe bet.
Down thumbs but you both were clearly right. You both did not have your head in the sandbox.
Actually seen that missed shot as a goal before it happened. Goalie on his belly and noone aware of what is going on “watching the game”.
And the defense coach needs to go. This defense was so good and now looks so bad with the only change being the coach.
Yup… of course the Oilers give up the lead. AGAIN!
Seriously, this team is so frustrating.
*Fart* noises
That’s quite unfortunate, but that’s why the default should always be drive the net
Groundhog day…..
Tough break on that Heiskanen goal
Deja vu
Hope Podz is OK.
Looks fine.
Classic 93 with a finesse dish. 97 with a top half of net finish
Connor should go see a doctor, because those mitts are sick.
At least they got out of that period with the lead. Gotta score some goals.
The patented Nurse belly flop coming back, completely fooled the Dallas players….
Attached boy Nurse . Yea.
When Louie says “are you kidding me”, that is an outrageous, egregious call by the official.
A couple soft lame penalties called against Edmonton this period.
Roslovic and Regula are my favourite Oilers.
Rantanen seems unusually ornery tonight mean mugging everyone after the whistle.
Bouch standing there behind Ek covering noone AGAIN! It is actually mind boggling how good this guy has been and yet can be consistently this bad. If this was 3 years ago he would be back in the Ahl. Signing this huge contract seems to have taken his mind completely off hockey…
Might be a good idea to get a few shots on net. One shot this period and it was on the PP.
Queue the game giveaway…