So, we have a strict ‘no giant dogs on the bed’ rule in our house. It isn’t really fair. Ziggy is a small dog and has slept on the bed her whole life, and Clifford hasn’t slept on the bed much in his life. However, we are his pack, and why can’t he sleep on the bed? Well he’s a big dog, sheds hair at an alarming rate and does not smell like flowers in spring. All good reasons.
Last night, he waited until everyone was asleep and jumped on the bed. Hilarity ensued, but it took some time. My phone went missing, I couldn’t get out of the bed to go to the bathroom (blocked by Clifford on one side and Karen on the other). Clifford also robbed people of covers because he was laying on them. Also, when you move to create space, he just snuggles in closer.
It seems easy to kick him out of the bed, but he has these sad eyes and he’s the sweetest dog. Also, he sees Ziggy snoozing away on the bed. Why can’t he? We have a king size bed and a giant problem. I think this might end up with Karen and I sneaking downstairs to the spare bed. Stay tuned!
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0)
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1)
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 1-0-0, two points in one game
- Season Record: 6-4-3, 15 points in 13 games
Q AND A
When did you decide to stop making sense? I’ve written an opinion blog for 22 years. I haven’t changed my approach, although events and effective arguments have changed my mind. I believe that’s the sign of intelligence: when something or someone presents compelling evidence that runs counter to your opinion, one should consider it and then alter their view if warranted. I’ve done that many times.
Your opinions on Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner are wrong!! Oh good, a debate. Where would you like to start?
You wrote a hit piece on Evan Bouchard at The Athletic. Of all the writers who spend their time on the Oilers, I consider myself the least capable of writing a “hit” piece. I did say, in this article, that the Oilers as an organization undervalue Bouchard and players of his type. It isn’t impossible to see him dealt in the next year or so. At no time did I say it would be a good idea, but I think we can agree it wasn’t a good idea to trade Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle and the Oilers did those things.
You never liked Bouchard. The math on Bouchard at five-on-five is undeniable. He’s an effective difference maker. In the last three complete seasons, he owns a 56 percent goal share, while the Oilers are 51 percent with him off the ice. Away from Connor McDavid, his goal share was 49.7 (95-96). That compares to Darnell Nurse, who was just 50 percent with McDavid and 52 percent without the captain. The coaching staff has it right and these are quality numbers. Bouchard is bona fide and an impact NHL player.
You don’t like to player type, though. Not true. Love puck movers, and especially the Oilers puck movers over the years. I spent most of a decade trying to get Joey Laleggia on to the NHL team. I believe in passing, so am a Bouchard fan for sure.
You changed your opinion on Stuart Skinner. Don’t deny it, you dirty rotten fricker fracker! You’re right, I did. I subscribe to the Bill James theory of established level of ability, something Rob Vollman also recommended in his hockey books. We have three years now of Stuart Skinner as a No. 1 goalie for an NHL team. Over those three full seasons, his five-on-five save percentage (.914) is solid. There are 69 goalies with over 2000 five-on-five minutes in those three full seasons. Skinner ranked No. 32 of 69. I think the Oilers should aim higher.
Why didn’t you say that this summer? The team changed goalie coaches, Skinner showed up in great shape and was moving well. The three year rule is a guide, but it didn’t come from the Sermon on the Mount. I’m a Skinner fan, that’s a fact. I want to see him win the Stanley Cup as an Oilers goalie. I also try to be honest with you, and honestly I think the Oilers need an upgrade in order to win the Stanley. At least a small upgrade, and if Skinner wins the starting role for the playoffs and keeps it, music!
You also said you don’t believe this team will make the Stanley Cup Final next spring. Yes, that’s true and it is what I believe. I picked the Oilers to win it all the last three seasons, but won’t be doing it this year. There’s too much of a ‘period of transition’ feel to the roster. Unless I’m wrong, the team plans on running Matt Savoie and Ike Howard on skill lines over the next several seasons. If that is true, at the current pace of deployment, these two men won’t play much in the postseason. I doubt either dresses for every game of the playoffs. So, that’s an investment for the future, like Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg were before they were not. Edmonton slow plays kids, they just do. I think it’s a mistake, honestly. I would prefer Savoie on a line with one of McDavid or Draisaitl, and would like Howard on the third line with the Nuge. It isn’t going to happen, and feature minutes will become more scarce once Hyman is back.
What do you mean? Put it this way. Andrew Mangiapane is producing at a level similar to Jeff Skinner one year ago. Skinner was banished to the back of the line by Knoblauch for most of the season and all of the playoffs. Mangiapane is still getting the McDavid minutes, I think partly because the coach doesn’t see Howard or Savoie as legit alternatives. I believe that is a mistake.
Good talk, you’re wrong on all of it. Well, I work hard to be consistent.
On the Lowdown today, Rachel Kryshak (CTO of Betalytics and ESPN contributor) will join me at 12:40 to talk World Series, Oilers, Leafs and more. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about Oilers, Jays and the CFL playoffs. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440n and You Tube.


How the Edmonton Oilers’ trade needs are evolving early this season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6771039/2025/11/03/edmonton-oilers-nhl-trades-alex-tuch-goalies/
Anyone else think the problem with our goalies is we spend 20 million on two defenders who can’t defend?
Correction: won’t defend.
Our HOF d-man is anHOF d-man when he is stapled to McDavid and paired with Ekholm.
With McDavid invisible and Ekholm fading, our HOF d-man is a huge liability. Maybe the Bouchard skeptics weren’t so far off base? Maybe 10.5 is too much for a guy that directly costs you multiple losses before Christmas? Bouchard is not winning these games back on his own.
Yeah, I think I was as wrong about Bouchard as I have been about any player. I think he can be a great player, obviously, but this might not be the team for him. If Nurse was worth his money then maybe there is cover but that’s not to be.
The Oilers would be better of allocating his money two a couple reliable defenders.
A team like Carolina might be able to maximize Bouch.
Last year I was suggesting 9 million just so people wouldn’t stop reading but I really would have wanted him traded. There is no price I want to pay for a player that can sink a game at any point. You wouldn’t pay a goalie half of what Bouchard makes if he was directly responsible for this many games.
I would obviously trade nurse first and find the right partner for Bouchard but that’s not going to happen.
This mix on defence isn’t going to win anything. I’d bet Bowman moves him, hopefully it’s not another classic Oilers sell low move.
Feel free to look at the numbers posted late last night that show that, over the last two years, this is NOT the case.
07-08 Rover Theory: Off D abandonment allows free path to their D side. Destroys any Cover on my HD SH area. (68/69 flin flon bombers age 4).
Current VP Trans Alta Gen & Renewanbles (Head of TA combined Gen Assets 05’ when he turned to all NA combined asset Managers meeting at Sheerness, “Do not lose him.”) Gary Woods was at Wab power complex when I generated Heat maps for Maint design flaw flagging sys.
You cannot afford to have 2 major abandoning D. Allowing higher % OSH targeting = Higher xSH% = Higher xGA. (XAvg predict pladtic disaster 8th best work, NAIT tech writing class Jan 95’)
Last check we had low EVSa/60 for our top 5 D. But each d side should have their own rate.
Free path to a d side allows time 4 better open SH targeting & more effective 3 Planes of targeting in net elevation. (07/08)
A. Over shoulder
B. Under arms & above pads with forced awkward arm flex
C. Fake shot to pause tracking across crease & create open space betwen goalie & post.
been 15+ years before I finally saw (WPG) D rolling under Goalies open areas in net elevation creating a closed wall.(07/08)
Still see many players who have not trained to counter bio Evohunt mech hit body (SH into Goalie). (Solar harmonic fetal cell const variance 78’ in xx, xy human brain 82’ indv. React, learn, train)
Just watched the goals and i have no explanation on what 2 was doing on game winner. He just drifted away from his check leaving him untouched on the goalie. Im a huge 2 fan but he needs to be benched. if not KK will loose this team.
The coaching is becoming a concern
Going through the checklist of the most infuriating ways to lose:
Just a most hateful evening.
I have absolutely no patience for any Bouchard apologist at this point. I don’t care how talented he may be. I can’t imagine how his teammates tolerate his gutless style of play.
I’ve been arguing for years that 1) offensive defensemen are overpaid; and 2) Bouchard doesn’t have a track record of success away from prime-era Ekholm. (I know OP has some mild evidence to the contrary on the latter, but it seems to be fading by the day.)
Evidence is outscoring the opposition away from Ekholm.
2 seasons coming in to this one, Bouchard away from Ekholm:
Regular Season: 53% goals share and 60% expected goal share.
Playoffs: 29-19 goals (61%), 62% expected goals (Ekholm at 3-5 goals and 26% expected goals in 70 minutes away from Bouchard)
How many minutes has Bouch had away from Ekholm? From my memory, they’ve pretty much been stapled together.
Does this include PP time? Seriously, he’s been on the ice for 48 goals without Ekholm in the playoffs? That’s like 10 games. Paired with whom?
Also, how much of that is away from McDavid?
That is all 5 on 5 over the course of the last two seasons and lat two playoff runs.
I was named in a post that said Bouchard is not established away from Ekholm and citing that I had numbers – I showed the numbers.
Now you are asking about controlling for McDavid – that was not your point – your point was away from Ekholm – that is moving the goalposts.
but, if you really want me to do all the work, that 810 minutes at 5 on 5 of Bouchard away from Ekholm over the last two season with 53% goal share and 60% expected (and 400 playoff minutes).
Bouchard away from McDavid and Ekholm in the playoffs the last two season: 11-8 goals and 65% expected goals (44% goals share and 53% expected goal share in the regular season).
Hey OP. I’m on the road instead of you, or maybe you are as well. Anyhow, the timing of my comments is off and I won’t respond timely or at all, pretty busy
The stats don’t tell the whole or true story of the Oilers. The xGF tells the part of the immense talent. The outshooting tells the story of a more balanced team than ever and decent enough coaching
It seems at this point what is going to define the McDavid era is if they are going to be able to be the team that rises to the occasion in key moments. Goalies and all. Right now they concede those to almost any team
Crappy teams in reg season, giving up leads or whatever. Not being able to keep pace with the teams that have eliminated them in playoffs
It can be said that’s the story of most teams. It is, but I don’t think anyone here sees the McDavid/Draisaitl situation era as ‘most teams’. They are in the Crosby Letang – Toews Kane – Point Hedman – conversation, minus the Cups so far
It will be a very sad thing if they can’t get it together 100% and get it done
The thing that may be missing is the player or two that would rather die than be beaten at anything at anytime. I think it sets the tone for the team
Messier. Lemieux, Crosby. Doughty. Hedman/Point. There were some teams that were just deeper, I don’t think of a dominant individual in this vein. The Devils, Panthers
Drai is approaching it but it’s not all the time, Connor and Bouch lose focus too much, Ekholm could have been, 7-8 years ago. It’s not too late but they don’t have much time left for ‘learning’
This Oiler team is soft like butter
Here is real issue, they play an emotionless game. Maybe they need some real grit in the leadership core?
You mean like Evander Kane and Corey Perry?
Exactly.
Or some emotion from the coach 🤷♂️
A goaltending dual Binnington vs Pickard what do you expect.
Classic ho-hum Knoblauch presser incoming.
All the usual “we were fine” “things were close” BS.
This is what a coach says when they either have no answers or don’t know that the point is to win however works.
This team putting up so few GF is an absolute travesty.
I knew they’d lose after someone said guaranteed win night.
There is no such thing as in the NHL this year.
Wonder how Bouchard is received in the locker room tonight. If he has any shame whatsoever, he must feal like garbage.
Meh, been like this for a while with no accountability so dont expect anything to change
People need to watch the replay of Bouchard….
Bizzaro world
Only explanation is he was scared of getting hit by the puck?
I see the value of Bouchard and would not trade him. That said, there has to be some accountability for his lack of engagement in the defensive end and in front of his own net. Sit for a period, don’t just sling him over the boards every time he makes a mistake related to effort.
i love Pickard as a person, teammate and story, but he has been a liability this year in net. We need a real 1A/ 1B tandem, and I think Skinner could be one of those goalies. Think Pickard may have peaked last year
I’d trade him in a heartbeat if I were Bowman. Search Wiki for “addition by subtraction”. Yes, that’s a photo of Bouchard.
Queue the excuses…
That is a bad Blues team…
The Blues are not a bad team. They are a good team playing badly, and in bad luck.
Thomas is a great player….outside of that, who scares you?
Kyrou is nice. Neighbours is good.
Schenn is almost 35
They barely made the playoffs last year. Same points as the Flames and that is a tell.
Doubt they make it this year
Sid Crosby played over 23 mins tonight, in his late 30s.
Blaming these losses on playing McDavid 20 mins is missing the actual bigger picture.
This team is being out coached and out played
The 25 McDavid minutes each game is part of the poor coaching though. NHL is a 4 line league. Top teams come at you in waves with 3 strong lines at the least. Playing two players on all parts of the game including pk and all pp minutes is not a recipe to win in a team game. That is on coaching.
Sid is averaging 19:07 this season.
McDavid 23:32
You are partially correct
Penguins lost
Pickard makes some great saves every game. But man he doesn’t look comfortable doing any of it. Scrambling all over his crease.
In Pickard’s defense, it gets kind of sketchy out there when it’s 5×3.
Bouchard doing the opposite of shot blocking there. Gets as far away from net as possible to avoid being hit but leaves his guy wide open for rebound. McDavid with the terrible penalty though to get St Louis ignited in the game
Dude has to sit. That was complete lack of courage.
Well deserved loss.
Pretty sure that was Skinner’s fault on the game winning goal on Pickard.
Pickard sucks – couldn’t swallow up the rebound on the GWG. His run support has dried up and his supporters are no longer crowing about how all he does in win.
WT absolute F is Bouchard doing on that goal?
Just a huge p@ss¥. Zero interest in defending.
What a joke. Blues winless in 7 then the oilers come into town to help them get out of their funk…typical Oil 🤢
Connor with another weak giveaway on a zero effort play and they’re 12 seconds from another loss to a horrible team.
This idiot coach focusing an attacking team on shot suppression thinking one goal games are the path to victory is costing them every single damn night.
Watching this team play is getting more frustrating by the game.
Saw that a few times in the 3rd. 97 just gave up the puck for free along the wall and no fight to get it back. Just bizzare low compete level
FFS 2 actually backed away from his own net to worsen his chance of having position on his man. NO Interest in the D zone!
Exactly …skated away
.
Point taken
Bouch with a very nice view on the Blues goal…….
What the hell was Bouch doing there? And two obvious missed calls with ref looking directly at the trips loom large.
Simply incredible….just pure avoidance to defend by Bouchard
But, Hey let’s reward him with more ice time!
Predictable.
Ekholm and Bouchard staring at the puck.
WTF are these guys being coached to do in front? They’re all not taking attackers now.
Unbelievable. Must be getting coached to avoid contact at all costs?
Top of crease is consistently uncontested
And this after they both went to the corner chasing to set the whole sequence in motion.
Not this time…Bouchard actually, intentionally, skated away from the net on the shot on goal. Clear intent to leave.
He looks like a 15u aged kid just entering contact hockey. Avoiding traffic at all costs
Boooo-chard.
Dammit
Sorry if this was posted earlier. Good on Samuel Jonsson.
https://x.com/EricJFriesen/status/1985492107302490352?t=gro1Qz99E8MmXDBhKvNmrQ&s=19
Oilers yet again, can’t hold the lead.
Pickard sliding out of the net on a straight on shot for some reason……
True.
Bouchard skating * away* from the net is bizarre though…
Well he probanly didn’t see it because the high forward didn’t block the shot and there were 2 blues standing in the slot unmolested by tweedle dee and tweedle dum. No one wanted to pay the price
Listening on 880 CHED – are we doing our usual “get a lead, blow a lead”?
yep, shades of the Calgary opener game.
agree with LT, no cup for teams who can’t hold a lead
The Glimmer twin era has always been the hardest road possible, this is nothing new.
What a shift by Podz/Philp.
Thought more of the Blue’s fan base. 97 in town and lots of empty lower bowl seats.
Oilers only had one PK last game but McDavid/Drai were not on first or second and they weren’t again on that PK – on third for the last 20 seconds which is a good strategy, I think most would agree.
97 + 29 taking full pk shifts made absolutely no sense. Not sure why KK went there???
It made sense in the “small picture” as, well, they are very good at it – zero goals against.
Of course, there is a larger picture to look at.
The Blues season in a nutshell…the Mangiapane goal.
Great speed by McDavid to back off the defence and dish wide.
Great pass by Nuge to Mangiapane.
Solid finish by Mangi – quick release.
———
Two more points for Nuge, one on the PP and one at 5 on 5.
He’s a top 6 producer this year – he stays in the top 6 as long as he’s near current production pace – he’s over PPG.
Bread Eater scored again but, who cares? He needs to get those shots up.
Pick with a big save, leads to a rush and Mangy takes a sweet feed for a 5 x 5 goal!
He’s been very good so far – needed it as he’s been quite poor to start the season.
Good bounce back by Picks to this point – now don’t leak a Grade B chance.
Let them eat bread, at 5v5 no less.
Hopefully the rest of the team is asking Roslovic what is this thing he is doing shooting top shelf? “Like how do you do that?” By the end of the season Roslovic will be shooting a foot off the ice like a true Oiler.
PPG in 2 straight games, Roslovic has found a home
Great defensive play by Holloway.
Roslovic dishes the biscuit as fast as he can receive it from Connor via Nuge, and we’re 1-bagel.
The PP is back to being a weapon – tops in the league and that was quick.
More points for Nuge.