Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid had some room to breathe in last night’s tilt versus the Chicago Blackhawks, and man did he groove. He flew through the neutral zone and created space on the first goal, knocking over some poor ‘Hawk (Leon’s ninth, on the power play), then sent a cherry pass to Jack Roslovic for his second on the year (also power play) and then gained the offensive line initially on Evan Bouchard’s winner in ovrtime. Music!
The only concern? 25+ minutes again last night. He didn’t play on the penalty kill, though and that’s progress.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0)
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1)
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 1-0-0, two points in one game
- Season Record: 6-4-3, 15 points in 13 games
The Oilers are in fourth place in the Pacific Heights division by points percentage, it looks like a five-team race for three spots with the Vancouver Canucks trying to sneak into the dance as well. Many rivers to cross.
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic played 13:27, 8-1 shots and 57 percent expected goals. They were 1-2 HDSC, with all three men doing good things. Leon went 1-1-2, had three shots and was all over the ice. Roslovic picked up a power-play goal. I’ll bet you Roslovic isn’t on this line come playoff time. I don’t believe that player is on the roster, but would love to see Matt Savoie here. Coach Kris Knoblauch doesn’t see him as that player now, maybe later in the year or in 2026-27.
Nuge-McDavid-Mangiapane played 13:04 with unusual results. 4-9 shots, 44 percent expected goals and 2-2 HDSC. The captain’s line was a little meh last night and has been for a time. Every NHL coach since Todd McLellan has taken the opportunity to put the Glimmer Twins back together again, especially on road trips. Let’s see if the coach does same.
Frederic-Henrique-Savoie played 7:49, 3-4 shots, 24 percent expected goals and 0-4 HDSC. One hopes Frederic starts playing like Frederic before the playoffs, and Henrique has been playing supreme hockey lately so I’ve got zero complaints.
Howard-Philp-Lazar played 6:31 together and were a delight. They outshot Chicago 3-1 and enjoyed a 59 percent expected goal share. It’s unfortunate the coaching staff didn’t play them more.
Nurse-Walman played 19:55, 5-9 shots, 33 percent expected goals and 1-3 HDSC. Nurse was less effective while away from Wallman. So far this season is 7-8 goals five-on-five. Early days, but he’s in the range of normal. In the last three complete seasons, Nurse has delivered 52, 50 and 53 percent goal share, respectively.
Ekholm-Bouchard played 16:34, 7-8 shots, 64 percent expected and 2-1 HDSC. Bouchard scored the winner, picked up an assist and looked very good to my eye. Ekholm was solid, had a look, and I’m feeling a little better about the tandem as they head out on the road.
Kulak-Emberson played 12:28, 6-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 40 percent expected and 2-3 HDSC. I don’t know why the gap is so wide between the top two pairs and this one, November games are important but some of these cats are going to be exhausted in the spring.
Stuart Skinner stopped 27 of 29, .931.
CONDORS
Some nice movement here in offense and in goal share at even strength. Josh Samanski, both Pitlicks and hey, Connor Clattenburg have posted crooked numbers. Mitch Moroz didn’t score until Game 35 (or so) in his rookie year. I don’t think Clattenburg is going to make the NHL as a top-nine forward, but love the fact the Oilers are letting him wheel. You never damn know. Let the kids show you what they are!
Cam Dineen is a scoring machine currently. Well done young man. I’m not sure any of the prospects see the NHL this season. Honestly.
New for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers avoid October crisis but it still feels like a missed opportunity
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6768948/2025/11/02/edmonton-oilers-stats-standings-2025/
Dear Lord,
I think your writing (& radio) on hockey is awesome, and I’ve appreciated it very much. However, LT, something has flipped in recent days. I noted the tone change yesterday, between this blog and your Athletic piece.
Despite your argument, as far as I can tell, from your numbers and elsewhere, goaltending is NOT the issue with this team. Skinner has “saved the game” at least twice this season already. He almost saved the game against the Rangers, stopping several odd-man rushes. The D and the F numbers are seasonally ugly, and especially so in that Rangers game. Yet goaltending is the problem?
Have you looked at who has a similar or worse SV% at this point in the season? Of 23 goalies who’ve played at least eight games, Skinner ranks #11, tied with Wedgewood at .900. Goalies with poorer SV% include Bobrovsky, Vasilevsky, Swayman, Gustavsson, Stolarz, Vejmelka, Keumper, Wolf, Sorokin, Ullmark, Bennington.
I think SV% is overrated and needs to be looked at with, among other things, WIN%. Here, of 23 goalies, Skinner ranks 13 at .444. Goalies with poorer WIN% include Swayman, Dostal, Knight, Keumper, Vasilevsky, Sorokin, Lyon, Gustavsson, Bennington, Wolf.
Your numbers, LT, show team SV% in recent years as stable. You’ve also used numbers to illustrate weaknesses on D and in the F group.
There is a weakness for goalie-baiting in the Oilers fan base and punditry. You’ve often said you’re on “team Skinner,” but I’m not sure what that means. Your radio guests Rachel and Steve love to beat on Skinner (without any statistical reasoning, something I find curious, especially with Rachel). You never ask them to backup their anti-Skinner comments.
You like analytics, but you’ve flipped the switch with “goaltending is the problem,” and joined those who would go on a fool’s errand chasing a “goaltending solution,” with no statistical reasoning.
There is no elite “Goalie Jesus” to make saves in the Oilers net (though Oilers fans and pundits will crucify every goalie they have in the belief there is such a saviour). Even McJesus cannot save Games 6 (2025) or 7 (2024) in the SCFs. There are, however, talented players -from goal through D and F- who have enough talent, some of them (ie. Skinner) statistically outplaying some of the players considered “elite” in the NHL (Keumper, Vasilevsky, your boy Swayman, among them). Goaltending is NOT the issue with this team. On the other hand, fan and pundit (& often management) impatience may be. As a wise Oiler pundit once said, “keep your powder dry.”
I mostly agree.
For someone as careful and cautious as LT, his statements on Skinner lately are pretty telling.
I have always been on Team Skinner, suspect all who read and listen know that to be true. I’m not suggesting firing him into the sun, but there is a point where established level of ability becomes clear. I put heavy emphasis on his fine rookie year and anecdotal evidence (Dallas series two years in a row) and defended Skinner as starter.
As it states in the piece, you develop a past. Skinner isn’t the solution for Edmonton. Stan Bowman needs to find an alternative, someone who can win playoff games. If Skinner emerges as the better man after that acquisition, I’ll be thrilled..
The Oilers high-danger chances against, expected goals, all point to better results. It’s the goaltending. And to be clear, I did not believe that to be the issue until now. I always give three years to establish level of ability. I think we have that now.
I’m sorry if my writing has turned on a dime for you, but dud want to see if a new goalie whisperer and quicker movements made a diffeence. Hope I’m wrong, but three years is a long time.
Agree – there’s no more Dustin Schwartz to blame. Skinner hasn’t shown any improvement in 3 years. He is what he is … a streaky netminder, who can play well in short stretches, but can’t maintain over a long season and playoff run. You never know when the wheels are going to fall off. Local boy who’s great in the room, which has afforded him more opportunity than most goalies would get on a contending team.
Not knowing what you’re going to get from your goalies on any given night leads the coaching staff to be more conservative in their approach; reining in the offence to protect the net with greater urgency.
If the Oilers are going to reach that next level needed to win a Cup, upgrading at goal is imperative.
The problem is the same as it’s ever been though … we don’t have the cap space to afford anyone other than Skinner. In order to get that cap space, either an expensive blueliner (Nurse, or Bouchard) needs to be moved along, or you have to hope to nibble at the edges by sending one of Mangiapane, Frederic or Henrique out.
Except the they all have NMC/NTC clauses.
I could see Frederic waiving his NMC … spending all season on the 4th line isn’t going to sit well with a player who is used to 2nd/3rd line minutes. That said, when Hyman gets back, the 4th line and press box is almost certainly where he’s going to be, as he doesn’t deserve to play higher in the lineup given how deep the Oiler’s forward corps is.
The obvious trading partner is Buffalo: Skinner and Frederic for UPL and Krebs.
Frederic is the kind of big body forward that Adams has been filling his roster with and the Sabres would be familiar with his play from his time in Boston. The 8 year deal brings cost certainty for a team that has trouble keeping players in Buffalo. Levi is crushing the AHL and it’s only time before the Sabres promote him over UPL. They have Lyon, Ellis and Georgiev to back up Levi. They can flip Skinner for another asset at the TDL.
The trouble with Levi is that he’s been crushing it at the AHL level for three years. But he struggles every time he’s called up to the NHL.
Not sure Sabres are ready to part with UPL.
The really issue is that UPL is not a great goalie. There is nothing to to suggest he is any upgrade on Skinner but only a couple million more for 3 years.
I love Skinner as he played junior in my hometown. I was hoping he would progress after the solid start to his career. But it seems he has regressed and been plagued by inconsistency.
Will be interesting to see who is in net for Edmonton when the playoffs begin.
Skinner’s EV save% is looking middle of the pack and not far from the top 10 despite some iffy play in front of him. It’s still early. I expect that to trend up.
Skinner has some young kids and we know that affects performance. It’s a time of transition. Hopefully he is coming out of that.
https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm
If we go by moneypuck’s stats, Skinner is definitely in the middle.
What I find interesting is there are some goalies at the very bottom of the list who posters around here yearn for to be our starter, like Ullmark, Montembeault, Wolf, Binnington, Markstrom, Wallstedt and.. Pickard.
Small sample sizes of course but the angst around here is surprising to me given the Oilers have had one of their better starts compared to the last few years, and Skinner’s looking adequate compared to many other goalies.
Funnily enough, Bobrovsky and Skinner have the same amount of games played but Skinner is looking better going by moneypucks list.
The Oilers break stats. Because stats are aggregate and the Oilers have probably the most elite players on one team. Maybe the Avs have as many. Having that means they have solid stats that are IMO too far ahead of actual performance
With the expected goals numbers they should be whalloping most teams most games, but struggle scoring a lot of the time
With the goalies, they can play a decent game, but like the team will make critical poor plays in key moments and lose games or put them in jeopardy. Every goalie lets in a stinker once in a while
But to those that have watched a lot of goalies over the years, what we see now doesn’t look like top level tending. When fans expect almost any shot to go in, at any time, as opposed to being saved, something is amiss. I’m sure Stan isn’t completely satisfied
Thanks. Firing him into the sun would be extreme, for sure 🌞
However, I’m looking at him as 3rd fastest to 100 wins, as having career comparable SV% and WIN% to other winning Oilers goalies, and I do not understand the panic about this goaltender, especially given the gifts /Halloween tricks played in front of him (& not just in trick or treat season). Nor do I see any statistical cause.
Call me puzzled.
I don’t think waiting for three seasons of 50+ games, in order to establish a level of ability, is panic. Having said that, I understand that my previous verbal on the issue was not as plain as it was in the article. I get that it can be jarring. However, there has been evidence before, and while I suspect the organization outwardly would agree with your take, for me there’s simply no way this team can enter another playoff spring with Skinner as the de facto No. 1.
You are a puzzled.🙂
I think the biggest issue was going into the year with both Skinner and Picks. We know what we had with this combo. I like picks but he is an AHL starter that can be called up to the NHL and give you a chance. Skinner is either an NHL backup or a 1B at best. We took a chance at adding Ingram which might be okay and costs nothing but why in the world did we not take a chance on Arturs Silovs? This looked like a very good gamble scenario with low cost to aquire and very low cap. If it didn’t work out we would be in the same boat as now. Very strange we didn’t take a chance on this guy after he blew the doors off the AHL..
I too noticed the change in tone and thank-you for the explanation. For me, it came as a surprise because Skinner’s game is showing improvements so far this season compared to last season, and his GAA at this point is actually better than it ended up each previous regular season. If we look at October, the goaltending allowed 35 GA, broken down as 2.59/60 for Stu and 3.50/60 for Picks for a combined 2.89/60. The 3 empty netters bring me to your 3.12/60.
We do know this group as a whole has had slow Octobers the past 3 years, and it is reasonable to expect the GF-60 will increase. I also think it’s reasonable to see the past 3 seasons as part of Skinner’s growth and last season’s struggles in particular as the outlier. There are a number of successful starters in this league, past and present, where you can look at a point in their career where a team’s investment in their growth and development finally turned that corner.
I do see you are choosing your words carefully and perhaps think Skinner will remain with a new starter brought in. It will be a challenge to find a starter who is an upgrade and can win playoff games out of the ones that will be affordable and available. Respectfully, I’m glad you said you hope you are wrong, because I hope you are too!
Yes. I have been saying for some time I don’t believe the Oilers will enter the playoffs with the same goalie tandem. What I’m saying now is that Skinner can’t be the de facto No. 1 imo. If he earns the net and wins Stanley? Music! However, he may also be part of the price to acquire a new goaltender. I’m not sure the people who got Skinner to Edmonton have much say in what is going to happen. I also think the thread of inconsistency in Skinner’s game remains. We’ll see.
Great take and I agree.
The job of a good GM is to constantly improve the team, without much sentimentality. It’s pro sports, the best hockey league there is. It’s only about winning
Moves shouldn’t be made when they aren’t there, Bowman has said that’s his approach. But you can keep your powder dry so long the battle is over and you’ve lost and fired no shots. Like the Jets
I would suggest a somewhat comparable example.
Ryan McLeod is an excellent third line centre. We miss him and his strengths at times.
However, he was not what we needed for playoffs and the org wanted to upgrade. Its okay that Ryan is not a first line centre, it doesn’t make him a bad player. But a team should always be looking for improvement at every position.
And it doesn’t always work out. We could use the same example with big Frederic being signed into potentially that third line centre spot, and not delivering.
Still, a club should always look to improve and that included goalies. Skinner is a good goalie, that’s why no move to date. The club should hold off until they can find a better goalie and then move.
It appears the Anaheim Ducks rebuild is close to over.
The Ducks are now in 1st place in the Pacific Division, tied with Vegas, after a convincing 4-1 win over New Jersey.
The Oilers also have 15 points but both the Ducks and Knights have two games in hand and both have more regulations wins and a goal differential of +7
What impressed me in watching the game was how their big boys can fly.
All of Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Bennett Senecke and Sam Colangelo are well over 6″ and 200 pounds.
They’re 7-3-1 on the season despite having centres Mikael Granlund and Ryan Strome as well as D Radko Gudas on IR.
Joel Quenneville seems to have turned the trick.
Mason McTavish – 6’04, 219 lbs
Leo Carlsson – 6’4, 207 lbs
Cutter Gauthier – 6’2, 205 lbs
Beckett Sennecke – 6’2, 180 lbs
Sam Colangelo – 6’2, 213 lbs
“well over 6″ and 200 pounds.”
Even when you ignore the typo this is still a Lol moment.
You strike me as someone who is 5’10 but tells people he’s 6’0.
Safe bet he’s well under 6′.
6’1″ 235
Hmm, I’m no medical professional, but your BMI seems a little high. You may want to step away from the screen time for a bit for your own health.
My lord, once again……everybody should just give up and hand the trophy over.
Summarizing!
Lafreniere picked up his 11th goal–and a +1!–in a 6-2 win, along with a game-high 8 SOG.
Prospecting takes a break until Tiw’s Day.
I’m betting Stetcher is traded to Carolina for a 2027 8th rounder in about a week
Which would be impressive for Carolina since the draft is only 7 rounds.
Not sure who Rono
is, but he has been posting some hockey stat cards on X.
Savoie and Howard
https://x.com/ronoanalyst/status/1985133990676709474?s=46
Draisaitl and McDavid
https://x.com/ronoanalyst/status/1985134429787042068?s=46
Wranglers score the empty net goal.
Then, with 35 seconds left, with ZERO pressure, Prokop whiffs on an outlet to give up possession, Ingram stops the rim behind the net, he and Carfagna essentially run in to each other and the empty net goal is scored.
Horrid game for the Condors including the likes of Ingram, Prokop and Leppanen mainly.
Ingram got shelled.
.750 save percentage on the night.
Oof.
3 bad goals and a meh goal.
He was awful – he’s trended down – first game was good and he’s got progressively worse in the next 3.
His team was awful defensively – last game on a 12 day trip.
More of the same. Condors with great pressure and then a quick strike goal against. It was a TWO ON FOUR and a bet drive for a back door tap in. Prokop and Leppanen (and Marjala) oblivious to defending position. Mostly Prokop.
Skinner has outperformed his contracts. He played as a starter while being paid like a backup.
So it is clearly his fault.
Other players can keep on making the same mistakes for four years and it is not their fault, even though they are being paid more or multiple times the amount Skinner is being paid.
Management has blown millions on UFA turkeys. And continued abandoning the 23-26 year cohort because they focus on perceived flaws rather than actual strengths.
Skinner is going to go to a team that is committed to structural soundness next year and continue having a fine career.
Quick strike 2 on 1 from the Wranglers off a chip-out (god the defence) and Ingram beat clean on the shot – the attacker was allowed to walk right in but it was another saveable puck.
3 goals against on 10 shots for Ingram – 2 bad goals and a meh.
Leppanen moved down the lineup to play with Prokop.
Carfagna up with Stillman.
Accountability for Leppanen – he continues to make soft plays, poor decisions, etc., etc.
Leppanen with a big body check in to the end boards – maybe he’s taking a message?
Ingram with a big pad save.
One commonality that whipping boys Bouchard and Skinner share is that both guys were needlessly slow played early in their careers.
Bouchard still with <400 GP in the NHL, Skinner at 183 career regular season starts. Demko, by comparison, is one year older and has ~ 70 more career starts, despite more injury difficulty.
So you have this apparent paradox of, hey these guys are at an age where they should be solidified, why are they not at their best, combined with, oh look, they actually are not that experienced yet.
Me, I’m bullish on both.
Patience.
Skinner is looking better by eye and by numbers. By evolving hockey and using a minimum of 200 FA (Fenwick shots against), Skinner is solidly in the middle of the pack by EV save percentage and not terribly far from the top 10.
That’s not too shabby considering the team isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders offensively or defensively.
Folks. We are witnessing something that is hard to comprehend.
McDavid is now scoring at 1.07 points per hour at 5v5, over 13 games.
His previous low, for 12-game rolling average was 1.91 p/60.
From Grok (4 Fast beta):
While it is not common, it is also not unheard of for offensive production to start declining at McDavid’s age.
Micah Blake McCurdy has done the latest research into aging curves which is here:
https://hockeyviz.com/txt/age22
Another thing I’ve noticed and has been observed here, McDavid’s shot rate is declining year over year, peaking at 352 in 2022/23 and is on pace for 265 this season should he be healthy all year.
Of note, his shooting percentage and face-off win percentage have also been dropping annually.
Yesterday, Woodguy dropped by to mention that much of this could also be a function of line mates since Mangiapane has been a black hole…then again McDavid has spent considerable time with Draisaitl.
Perhaps the return of Hyman will turn things around but counting on a 33 year old coming off a serious wrist injury could present a risk.
This belongs in this comment thread. Yeah.
**side note:
i swear something has definitely changed a bit as far mcjebus effectiveness. I imagine a big part is other teams tactics but like it seems like less stickhandling in phone book style magic through people like he’s in the matrix, his quick release seems to have less speed on shots…like he still has the wheels and the awareness. Like the ungodly on stick passes through impossible traffic…but seems sort of solely reliant on skating by or around people not just surgically cutting right through them wirh the puck somehow still on his stick and yeah wrist and snappers seem more whiff.
Rough look at basic shot stats seems to agree. His shot rate and shooting percentage are on a pretty sharp decline from that peak 22/23 season…i really think there was an injury in that years playoffs before end of calgary series or something. As he just went quiet in that western conference final and his approach i seems to have changed. Like still amazing but surely some kind of not simple fix upper body injury***
I only caught bits of the game (was occupied with the Jays), but one thing that strikes me about Roslovic is that he has some pretty deft hands in the corners, corralling loose pucks and passes and making something happen from it.
I think he’s a fit for the roster for sure. If he can fire pucks and score he will stick on that second line.
Too much negativity lately. How about some positives:
October is over … this has been the teams worst month over the past few seasons and they managed to keep with the pack.
Roslovic looks like he’s fitting in nicely on a line with Leon and Podz, who is also having a good start. When Hyman gets back, we’ll have two lines with Connor and Leon at centre.
Henrique can still contribute.
Savoie can contribute … offense is a bit shy, but he can hold his own on the third line and is replacing Brown’s role on the PK.
Howard has NHL level scoring ability. He needs to get stronger and improve his skating, but the talent is there.
There are a bunch of forwards that don’t appear to be fits: Tomasek, Frederic, Mangiapane, and we’ll see what Janmark has left. I’m not sure that Philp is anything more than a tweener either. But this is the bottom of the roster, and these pieces can and probably will be changed up before the playoffs.
Happy Sunday everyone.
Magpie Career wise:
-> Puck hound (takeaways higher than give aways
-> not very high volume shooter, doesn’t generate a lot of rebounds…like opportunistic from mid range type (career 14.5 Shooting %)
-> appears solid two way by plus minus (+45 for career) but is already -7 in 13 games here.
-> every year of his career 50% or above on goals for %. Like a positive impact or saw off type 200 ft decent winger (this year 28.5% so far…woof)
-> even expected goals for like slightly higher every year. This year still showing 50%…but like playing with mcdavid i think a cardboard cutout likely be close to 50% on his wing
-> extremely high IPP (goal or first assist) to me just like a north/south hockey player. Not a guy for cycling style puck retrieval…not a sniper by trade and not profoundly deft at passing.
-> not overly the right kimd of complimentary winger for either of those guys but mcdavid especially.
When hyman back:
Third line i would love to see with real ice-time allocated.
RNH henrique magniapane
A third line that’s a real threat.
For the past few years now i’ve been praying kuzmenko would be the get (deadlines or offseason). Like watching that guys goals he seems perfect i swear. Like knows how to sneakily create soft ice in dangerous areas with deadly shot. Seems like the perfect guy for mcdavid.
**side note:
i swear something has definitely changed a bit as far mcjebus effectiveness. I imagine a big part is other teams tactics but like it seems like less stickhandling in phone book style magic through people like he’s in the matrix, his quick release seems to have less speed on shots…like he still has the wheels and the awareness. Like the ungodly on stick passes through impossible traffic…but seems sort of solely reliant on skating by or around people not just surgically cutting right through them wirh the puck somehow still on his stick and yeah wrist and snappers seem more whiff.
Rough look at basic shot stats seems to agree. His shot rate and shooting percentage are on a pretty sharp decline from that peak 22/23 season…i really think there was an injury in that years playoffs before end of calgary series or something. As he just went quiet in that western conference final and his approach i seems to have changed. Like still amazing but surely some kind of not simple fix upper body injury***
Leppanen with a high risk offensive zone play with 25 seconds left – transition. He does recover but the Condors are scrambling and Ingram is beat from, again, the face-off dot, on a writer along the ice far side.
2 bad goals on Ingram.
Ingram beat short side on a snap shot from the face-off dot.
Off his shoulder and in.
Samanski with a strong rush up the left side in the offensive zone, drives past the d-man on the boards and sets up one of the Pitlicks for a nice slot one-timer.
I love Samanski’s puck transition game – long ways to go but he has real Ryan McLeod replacement potential.
Griffith with a nice back-track on a 2 on 1 (while on the PP), the puck transitions back and Marjala rips his first from the high slot – bar down.
1-0 Condors early.
A minute in and Clattenburg drops them with some big dude (Cicek) at center.
A spirited tilt, both landed a couple, probably a slight decisions to CC.
One down two to go for the Gordie Howe Hat-trick.
Petrov in for Jarventie (back to backs)
Prokop in for Millman
Ingram starts:
Jones/Marjala/Hutson
Rhett Pitlick/Rem Pitlick/Griffith
Clattenburg/Samanski/D’Amato
Keppen/Copponi/Petrov
Dineen/Brown
Stillman/Leppanen
Carfagna/Prokop
Ingram
—————————————-
Team misses Hamblin solidifying the middle six.
Despite a fair deal of consternation from fans, I think Knob’s treatment of Philp has broadly been justified by his play. His errors alongside his 28.1% xGF thus far aren’t indicative of an NHLer and, at his age, how much growth can you expect?
That aside, nice to see Roslovic clicking alongside Drai and Pod! Specifically, I find his willingness to just do things with the puck without deferring to Drai incredibly refreshing. I know this player’s flaws will rear their head eventually, but those flaws are broadly mitigated by the style that duo play together. Disappointing that it isn’t Savoie doing that, but I think he can still carve out a productive role on L3 this year 🙂
His biggest sin was leaving his man open in front and not taking his stick.
Dont be a liability when 97 29 are off 101
— was at game 7. I don’t think will have a more memorable sporting “experience “ Was at all 4 home games.
— went to game 7 oilers loss in Florida. Raptors didn’t win at home but was at those home games
— the intensity of baseball, live, though given the nature of each at bat is just so much more dramatic collectively than the furious pace of basketball or hockey.
— well back to my regular day job and life.
I don’t usually follow baseball, but in moments where something is actually on the line, the drama is off the charts. Every single pitch could turn the game, and it’s such a mano-a-mano combat.
Springer, Vladdy, Barger, and Clement were all amazing at the plate. It’s a shame that bad baserunning (occasionally assisted by umps) did the Jays in. And they hit into way too many double plays. But credit to LA – they hit the homers when they needed to.
Look forward to Hyman replacing Mangiapane in that top line. Mangiapane will help the bottom six and Hyman will help the captain’s line.
Not sure Mangiapane will help much at all.
Through 13 games he has generated only 10 shots on goal while playing more than 15 minutes per game.
For reference:
Roslovic – 25 (11 games played)
Nuge – 23
Podkholzin – 21
Tomasek – 19 (11 games played)
Savoie – 15
Howard -15
Perhaps a step down in Q of C will help but that would be ameliorated by a decrease in ice time.
Magpie is not a good fit on the top line.
Honestly, not sure Hyman will help as much as we hope. He’s coming off a wrist injury and yes he’s not a sniper but a “shoveller” at the front of the net, but I think it has more to do with McDavid decline.
The white elephant in the room is that McDavid’s skating is still world class but his stickhandling has been subpar. In past years, Connor would attack and stickhandle thru multiple pokechecks and swipes but opponents are routinely disrupting McDavid’s puck dekes. I don’t know if it’s just getting older and slower or if he has a nagging hand/arm issue but he’s not springing free as often and it’s noticeably hurt his attacking effectiveness.
Yep – I’ve noticed that too. Connor used to have the puck on a string, and stickhandle in the triangle between a defenders feet and stick. That’s gone now, and has been for some time, if we’re being honest. He also doesn’t explode out his cross-overs the way he did a few years ago.
He’s added more a physical edge to his game over the past 2 years, and is just a different player now. I’m not sure that means he’s a worse player though … I think his game is built better for the playoffs now. But he’s not a one-man offensive barrage the way he was a few years ago.
I have been talking about McDavid’s puck handling issues at speed for a year and a half know so, yes, that is a thing.
Taking that aside, acknowledging Hyman is coming off surgery, I consider him to be a massive upgrade from Mangiapane. As you mention, puck skills were never his thing but I think his presence, his effort, his puck retrieval, his chemistry with McDavid, etc., etc. will be a major upgrade.
We don’t know what we don’t know but Roslovic looks like he has chemistry with Leon, can produce at 5 on 5, can slot in as backup for the PP and is just fine with his reasonable 2-way play. He is at $1.5MM and that matters in the PP.
Not sure why a big value contest would be at such risk – one would think the opposite.
As of right now, for me, looks like a really valuable pick up and contract.
There goes Savoie’s spot in the top six. Then when Hyman returns Mangiapane drops down to the bottom six. Soon there will be no more room for the young up and comers.
It just seems inevitable.
I think Savoie will continue to have a real role on this team.
He is fourth among forwards in PK TOI/G and that role should increase as the coach fades McDavid/Drai’s PK TOI (currently 1-2 on the team).
Coach trusts Savoie and I think he’ll continue to have a middle 6 forward role and, although I just pumped Roslovic’s tires, I presume he’ll have some ups and downs through the season and Savoie could slide to play some top 6 right wing at times.
I think Howard and Philp are at risk and Tomasek as well.
Part of this will be how the coach uses/fades Janmark and Kapanen. I think coach has over-valued Janmark in the past and over-values Kapanen current
Janmark went from a career winger and stepped into the 4C role and did well with it, his performance as 4C was equal to anything the Oilers have rolled out in the past.
Kapanen is a north/south winger that bangs and shoots, Oilers don’t have many of that type. He was one of the lone performers above expectations during the finals last spring. Imo coach would have him in the Mangiapane spot right now if he was healthy, and probably out performing what Mangiapane is putting on paper.
I would love to see more Howard, his shot is fantastic and it deserves more reps.
Philp, didn’t do himself any favors last night. Penalties and missed assignments don’t trend well with Knoblauch unless you’re a top 5 player on the squad.
European Penner has been given more rope then he has deserved imo.
Roslovic is performing well with Draisaitl, I can’t see him going anywhere if he keeps on doing what he does.
Savoie may have to wait until next season to make a charge for a larger role, he may also become trade bait for a bigger fish and score 20 in a new town next year.
Janmark & Kapanen play all three forward positions, have good understanding of the system play and they both PK. Quite honestly I could see a very useful fourth line in
(Janmark-Philp/Lazar-Kapanen), while it should also be noted that Lazar can play all three forward positions & PK’s also.
I don’t agree that Janmark did well – he was put in a position to fail at center, he’s not a center and it showed. He was replacement level last season as he regressed from the prior year – he was not as responsible 2-way, not good on the PK -combine that with being a black hole offensively.
He likely gets an opportunity to play and show last year was simply a down year – he can help but his game wasn’t there last year.
Kapanen can serve a role in the bottom six with his speed and size but this coach mis-casts him in the top 6 too often – hence the reference to the coach over-valuing him.
Janmark was primarily 3C during his time in Dallas and Chicago.
Ya, I’m sure those seasons he took 20, 64 and 10 face-offs at 5 on 5 he was playing primarily center……..
They probably don’t want to risk Philp to waivers, plus Phips game is more suitable as a fourth liner, I might add so is Lazar’s and they’re both RHC’s.. Where as Howard & Tomasek, as well as Savoie are all waiver exempt and can move between the NHL & AHL more freely. That is my take anyway..
I don’t disagree but it seems the fan-base values Philp more than the coaching staff = can’t speak to management.
If we see Tomasek scratched for a few games then I see a trade brewing as he didn’t come here to play in the AHL. I do think it’ll be Philp or Savoie going down for some more marination time.
One day, maybe after the 14th time you post this and ignore responses, you’ll be open to a discussion on the point.
Let’s not forget that Roslovic led Carolina in ES scoring last year. The guy comes with a pedigree that few of our other wingers have.
I’m trying to recall the first Chicago goal and figure out what happened.
It looked like Nurse let Bedard walk right in with an open lane. Nurse looked like he was covering someone, but I watched replay and he wasn’t. He was just standing in front of the net.
There have been a few goals scored against in the PK like that.
Against Vancouver, Petersen walked right in from the top of the right circle uncontested.
If you rewind further, you see that Nurse HAD Bedard rounding the corner and left him to go back to the high slot where he duplicated the other defenceman’s coverage of the high slot pass.
When Bedard turned and saw he had a lane to the net, he took a stride and since Nurse didn’t challenge him, he had all the time in the world to choose a shot or fire the backdoor pass to Bertuzzi. Skinner had to respect the shot so the cross crease pass was uncontested.
If I was coaching, I would have told Nurse to keep badgering Bedard up the boards until he dished off the puck before rotating back down to the net front/high slot. Even if you can defend Nurse peeling off early, he should have challenged Bedard and got in the lane in front of the shot at the faceoff circles to make the pass or shot harder. Nurse should have trusted the other Oilers to block the high slot cross ice passes.
At least the Oilers won and apparently so did the Maple Leaf’s , who I had to watch when we weren’t watching the Jays. Oh my goodness, a busy night of sports action.
Prospectiere!
Yesternight, Tommy Lafreniere became the first NAmateur to hit double-digits in goals this season. He is on pace for a 45-goal season, which would almost double last year’s total (24). But he is also the clubhouse leader with a -10.
Lafreniere has the chance to improve many numbers against a Wenatchee squad that has the 2nd worst winning percentage in the Dub (though they did beat Lewandowski and the Blades in OT last night).
Puck drops at 5 p.m.* Breynat time.
*Time for my annual beef about that dadblasted Daylight Saving Time. Is there actually any benefit to it? Help a brother out here.
They need to scrap the time switch, it’s a blasted pain in the keester.
The cows milk better over here !
Daylight Saving Time was introduced in WW1 by Ze Germans, to reduce coal use during the evening. Many nations dropped the practice in peacetime, but reintroduced again during WW2, with our southern neighbours having year-round “War Time” from 1942-1945.
Due to advances in technology, lighting has become a much smaller proportion of energy usage compared to the likes of appliances, heating, cooling, electronics, etc. Enough that the limitation of artificial lighting after dark holds questionable bearing as the primary reason for DST to endure.
One could argue the largest reason DST persists is cultural inertia, aka this is how we’ve always done it. I’d imagine there’s a significant push from the retail, recreation, and tourism lobbies to keep people out and about later. Another issue is nationwide coordination, not exactly a strength these days, and making the permanent choice between daylight or standard time.
/TEDxTalk
As always, appreciate the prospect updates and the levity of your signature valedictions.
You know, the rest of you could follow what we in Saskatchewan do (or rather, don’t do) all the time…..
I live in Mexico and we scrapped the time switch some years back. Now I have to adjust my sports viewing times. I was just on Alberta time and now I will be on Manitoba time. Would you people just stop it already and pick one or the other, thanks.
Gutted for the Blue Jays last night. I think they would have won if IKF had DIVED headfirst towards the plate instead of a traditional slide. That extra last forward momentum could have gotten him the winning run
Often people say “I know exactly how you feel” and it’s kind of a support statement as opposed to the cold, hard truth. I know exactly how Jays fans feel today, because Rick Monday and the Dodgers did it to my Expos in 1981. Awful. Just awful.
Yeah… I don’t like Mondays anymore.
I’m actually more perturbed by Hoffman serving it up on a platter for the fecking #9 hitter. His propensity for giving up the longball picked the worst time to rear its ugly head.
Not to mention all the stranded runners the Jays had the past two games (14 last night, 8 in G6, compared to LA’s 10 and 5). Their bats seemed to run out of timely hits.
If there’s one positive a Jays fan can take from this, Bichette might be more likely to re-sign now if he feels there’s unfinished business to resolve with his buddy Vladdy.
Why in the world was Hoffman pitching around Rojas in the first place? If he hadn’t gotten himself into a full count trap, he wouldn’t have had to telegraph a pitch in the strike zone.
How many times did Varsho come up with RISP and end the inning? Three times in Game 6. If he could have hit a fecking sac fly in Game 7, the Jays are world champs.
The Dodgers pitcher Yamamoto won it for them. But that catch when the two dodger outfielders collided was a game saver as well. It really could have gone either way.
The Blue Jays can hold their heads high that was the most exciting World series in 32 years.
Yeah, that catch was the nail for me. I thought that was match for the Jays, went through a whole range of emotions there.
So many missed opportunities and super close plays in this one. Obviously disappointed, but gotta say that game, the series, and the entire Blue Jays run was outstanding entertainment.
One play that got lost in all the drama was way back in the bottom of the first. Did anyone see an explanation on what Springer was thinking on that strike em out, throw em out double play. It really didn’t look like George was running hard at any point there. If it was a straight steal, why isn’t he running hard and why is he looking in at the batter? If it is a hit and run, why is Vladdy taking a fastball almost right down the middle?
Excellent question. I think that one is totally on Springer for assuming Vladdy had just walked. Just like Bichette in G3.
If the ump calls that a ball, then you’ve got runners on first and second with one out and Bichette up to bat. Expected runs in that case have to be at least one….hmm, imagine if the Jays had been up 5-3 going into the 9th inning….
So many “what if’s” for sure … the Jays made a lot of mistakes in game 6 and 7 … which is uncharacteristic of their season as a whole. The pressure of the limelight and having the opportunity to win at home, and end a 32 year drought, was a factor. They crushed the Dodgers in LA, but lost 3 of 4 at home. Aside from all the revenue that Rogers made, I’m not sure that having home field was to their advantage.