All the experts tell me to wait 20 games (or 200 minutes) before starting to draw conclusions on a player or season. I think you can double it and double again with these Oilers, they have a tradition of addled starts before making it deep into the Stanley Cup Final.
Let’s take five-on-five results with the Glimmer Twins as an example. Together this season, in 107 minutes, they are 60 percent goals (65 percent expected) Draisaitl solo is 69 percent goal share but 49 percent expected. McDavid solo is 50 percent expected but 40 percent actual goals. Some say McDavid’s line doesn’t shoot enough and fair enough, but his line has more HDSC/60 than Draisiatl or 97-29 together. So, what the hell man?
Last season, through 18 games (I had to extend to get the captain to 15 games), the tandem played 82 minutes together with a 75 percent goal share and 72 percent expected. Draisaitl solo was 50 percent goal share and 58 percent expected, while McDavid solo was 38 percent goal share and 56 percent expected. Huh. Kind of similar to this year, no? So, if that assclown “regression” was doing its job a year ago, we should see: 97-29 flourish, McDavid’s goal share soar past 38 percent and Draisaitl also rise a little. What happened?
Well, From Game 19-82 in 2024-25, the Glimmer Twins went 61 percent (65 expected) and they did indeed flourish. Draisaitl solo went 57 percent goals (56 percent expected) and he rose to the expected level the first 18 games implied via expected goals. McDavid solo? 54 percent goals, 57 expected. That’s a pile more than 38 percent and matches what expected goals hinted at after 18 games.
What does that mean? Regression, as I understand it, is identical to the man Tom Waits wrote in the song “What’s He Building in There?” and we just have to wait to see how it plays out. I will tell you that I believe in Connor McDavid, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman’s back, the hanging curveball, high fiber, good scotch. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve, and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days. (Source: Bull Durham)
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0)
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1)
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 1-1-1, three points in three games
- Season Record: 6-5-4, 16 points in 15 games
The Oilers are teetering between fair and foul nightly, and of course your view of the team currently has a lot to do with how you are dispositioned as a person. I’m on team McDavid, but do admit that this team has some issues that are concerning. The outlet passes are not crisp, the mistakes are happening but this group can’t seem to outscore them. I think that’s the thing we are waiting for, the five-on-five scoring cascade. When will it come? Don’t know. Will this team make it to the Final? I believe this is a transition season, and would bet today this group falls short. However, it is possible to win Stanley, if Stan Bowman sacifices the future (Ike Howard plus in a deal for Alex Tuch, as an example) but I’m not sure that’s the way forward. Tough league, this NHL.
The Oilers have always made mistakes, but could always outscore them. The choices, as I see them, are to let it ride for 2025-26 secure in the knowledge Howard and Matt Savoie will have impact next season; make a deal for Tuch or similar in hopes the offense will straighten up and fly right; trade for a goalie upgrade (suggestions welcome) or bet on McDavid.
Choose your poison. I’ve told you mine.
Nuge-McDavid-Mangiapane played 11:01, 3-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 28 percent expected and 0-4 HDSC. As is often the case with a McDavid trio, the offense came off strong backchecking and exceptional passing. This line should be working better, they are 3-3 goals and 46 expected in about 80 minutes five-on-five.
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic were together for 10:57, 10-6 shots, 1-1 goals, 53 percent expected goals and 2-5 HDSC. Botth of the top lines bled HDSC, that Dallas group are a pack of roadrunners (going faster miles an hour). The line is 6-2 goals (46 expected) in 77 minutes. Jack Roslovic is on fire, my God that pass to Vasily Podkolzin was epic. Leon’s shot was too and it’s good to see this trio do damage. I’m not convinced they start the playoffs as a tandem (there’s going to be a desire to add a big winger imo) but Roslovic is manna from heaven.
Frederic-Henrique-Savoie played 8:09, 2-0 shots, 100 percent expected. The trio got one HDSC (Savoie) and overall this is encouraging. The wingers have to score. In 42 minutes together, the line is 1-1 and I am in favour of keeping the trio going.
Howard-Philp-Tomasek received 3:58 together, 1-4 shots and 73 percent expected. Don’t ask me how 1-4 shots and 73 percent expected rhymes, but thems the numbers. I did like Howard’s kicking the puck to his skate, I do hope we get to see him for a decade. I had the same hope for Martin Rucinsky.
- Nurse-Walman 17:37, 9-12 shots, 1-2 goals, 33 expected, 1-10 HDSC (!!!!)
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:34, 7-1 shots, 1-0 goals, 76 expected
- Kulak-Regula 12:22, 3-3 shots, 80 expected
- Stuart Skinner .889SP, stopped nine of 12 HDSC
Nurse-Walman were 0-2 goals and 1-10 HDSC versus Jason Robertson and the Argonauts. Credit to the coaching staff for getting that pair away from Robertson (9:31 versus Nurse and Walman). Among the things Kris Knoblauch may want to look at is the defensive deployment. Robertson didn’t piss a drop against Ekholm-Bouchard. I know the coach doesn’t worry about the other team, he just deploys his side, but maybe when things aren’t going well it might be a consideration.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Kevin McCurdy and he’ll drop in at 1pm. We also have the round table with Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson, Josh Fenwick and Sam WIllness. Lots of Oilers talk, some Jays (holy hell they received good news with Shane Bieber choosing to return) and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and YouTube.
Stock watch: Which Oilers free-agent signings are thriving? Who’s struggling?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6777137/2025/11/05/oilers-stats-players-stock-watch-2025/
Ever since I heard mention of him, I’ve had a “feeling” about Jonsson. A good feeling.
ps. Talking about goalies… For all the Skinner-haters, here’s what one Dallas sports writer had to say, summarizing last night’s game: “The Stars continued to battle on after that goal but nothing could be done when Stuart Skinner brings his A game.”
The Stars beat Skinners A game with their back up lol
Skinner was 1.2 goals better than expected.
Stars backup was 0.3 goals worse than expected.
The Stars backup didn’t beat Skinner. The Stars skaters beat the Oilers skaters.
For me, the first GA came from a stop but inability to handle the rebound. I think you could ask for a cleaner save from Skinner. I don’t think he can be blamed for the third goal, that puck was a wicked ricochet right to the defender who read that like freaking Houdini.
Bouchard did not block out the Star on the rebound, and blocked out Ekholm. And Bouchard was on the wrong side of the crease because he was afraid of getting hit by the shot, and if he was on the right side of the crease, Ekholm would have had a chance to beat the first Star to the rebound, and Bouchard would have been blocking out the actual goalscorer.
To blame any of that on Skinner, who stoppe a shot from mid slot from an elite shooter is absurd.
That goal is all on Bouchard.
The initial shot was a ripper no doubt, but before Bouchard is a door for Ekholm, Skinner makes the save but can’t corrall and isn’t in a position to complete the play. I know Bouchard defensively looks awkward there, but I’m talking about the sequence from the shot to the save, to what was left. Bouchard’s role in the part of the play I’m talking about is anticipating getting hit by the puck. We’re talking about two different plays, or maybe different points in the same play.
Exactly.
And Bouchard was on the wrong side of the crease because he was afraid of getting hit by the shot,
Bouchard didn’t have time to move to the other side. The shot was taken quite quickly.
You need to stop being rationale. Haters gonna hate.
There’s a reason Skinner isn’t going to get resigned in Edmonton. He’s not improving he’s a poor man’s average Goaltender. I’m surprised Bowman hasn’t dealt him he always had a above average starter and back-up in Chicago.
I think Bowman is encountering the same problem fans are having: Identifying a superior option at $2.6 million or less. The cap and the NMC contracts, added to the shallow talent pool, are real.
I remember many on this blog who were saying things like “Ingram replaces Skinner within a month” but that hasn’t happened and won’t happen for some time. I give Bowman credit for the Ingram move, it was a good one. It isn’t an instant fix, and no one I’ve heard or seen has identified an instant fix for Bowman to pursue.
Because Bowman is smarter than most fans, or at least has the managerial wisdom and patience to see what he has in hand.
I dropped the Dallas sportswriter’s quote because
a) an outsider view is useful,
b) I couldn’t help myself: I believed there would be a reflex Oiler fan rejection of the possibility that a starting Oilers goalie even has an “A game.”
My question to you, LT, and any fan or pundit here:
I believe Swayman was on your wish list last year, LT. Who else? Anyone else have a wish list? I’d love to see some names. Then, let’s see how they stack up against Skinner over the season and postseason in terms of SV%, GAA, and most importantly, WIN%.
As I believe you said today on the show, viz “how hockey works” – if things aren’t going well you first punt the goalie, then you fire the coach. I haven’t done the “research” on this, so I have no statistics to show whether this is or is not a winning strategy. Maybe someone else has? If the record since 1990 is an indication, it hasn’t worked for the Oilers. But maybe another club?
I have started a ‘hard target search for Edmonton’s No. 1 goalie’ several times, and have yet to complete the article. I haven’t tried to exclude cap because it isn’t reality. Swayman was a target before signing his contract, but no longer. I can’t find a $2.6M goalie better than Skinner, and since that was my goal, the article died.
I know you’re not a believer but Talbot has measured better over the last three seasons according to 5v5 SV%. Although by that measure within the smaller sample of this season Skinner is better. Would be interesting to see what would happen with that tandem. At $2.5M the Oil could likely pull it off. Not a long term solution by any means.
Talbot, like so many able Oilers goalies, has already earned the enmity of Oilers fan.
Goaltending is not and was not “the problem.” But firing goalies and coaches is easier than being patient.
Interesting. What happens if you put the cap hit at $5-6M, given that this looks to be the floor for his next contract? Who is now on your list?
Or, as Dryden pushed Vachon to the margins, is Jonsson the future, arriving early (ie March or April)?
Anaheim has Ville Husso buried in San Diego.
In 6 AHL games he has a .927 SV% with 2.04 GAA.
Last season, he played 4 games for the Ducks with a .925 and 2.99
His cap hit is $2.2 million but Anaheim might retain half and pay to make him go away.
Could be worth a test drive.
Agreed. Bowman is not going to trade for the sake of making a trade.
This afternoon I was looking at the NHL.com advanced goalie stats and sorted the goalies by those who have played 8-12 games to grab most of the starters (Skinner is at 10). Of the 26 goalies who have played 8-12 games, only 8 have a lower or equal GAA than Skinner’s 2.54. Additionally, 12 goalies in that group have received lower or equal GFA (goals for by the team) than Skinner’s run support of 2.84. If you look at the differential between GFA and GAA, Skinner is saving 0.3 goals/60 more than what his team is scoring at the other end. Only 3 other goalies have a tighter margin to the good. As we get more into the season hopefully Skinner can keep going at least at the same pace and the rest of the team can increase their scoring production.
Jonsson backstopped Fort Wayne to another shutout with FW beating Florida Everblades 5-0 tonight stopping 30 shots!
Jonsson is now 4-0-0, with a 1.25 GAA and a 0,945 S%
Is Jonsson this year’s 1971 Dryden?
If Trent is still recovering from the ankle injury, he needs to be put on LTIR until he is serviceable. He’s been horrendous. He was pegged and is being paid as a high end 3C or top 6 winger, and he is currently a warm body on the bottom 6 wings. In year 1.
May be the worst contract in Oilers history given the term and the absence of even a single year of productivity. This was such an unforced error and pisses away the savings on McDavid. Roslovic was available all off season while they had to have Trent.
LT is talking about looking for 2.6 million goalies. 6 million would open a whole different tier. 4 million gets you lots at the deadline.
Savoie and Howard are not value contracts, and may well not be the case in a year, either.
Yeah, this one makes me think nothing has changed. same old Oilers. Made a decision and then doubled down and negotiated against themselves. This and the offer sheets could be a reason they don’t win a cup. Feels like Lowe/Mact era management.
From 100% Hockey: Lessons in Leadership and Longevity with Mark Messier., Nov 3, 2025
Messier on Elites and Load Management:
Thanks for sharing! Those are fascinating comments in this quoted portion alone. I also believe you condition yourself to do anything you want, and that you simply need to regularly train hard at that level.
Also, he mentioned normally 200 games are needed for a player like Matt Schaefer to become reliable on the defence side in the NHL… and how the consequences of rookie mistakes are not an issue on a bottom-feeder team, compared with when a rookie is playing on a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. The dialog on this site that you need to play rookies in the regular season makes total sense, if you want those players to be contributors in the playoffs, but it would also explain why a risk-averse coach would slow-play rookies on a contending team during the regular season.
Were there any specific comments from Messier on longevity / leadership that resonated with you?
I found the description of leadership as a “spirit” within the team to be very interesting. He illustrated with discussion of the last Blue Jays squad as a special team.
Messier mentioned that there needs to be a connection from the executive, to the GM, to the coach, to the captain.
Feels like this version of the Oilers is having difficulty with the connection between coach and captain. I have no proof, of course. It’s just a feeling that they are negotiating something there. Maybe a more active position for the Captain in decision making. If that’s true, its a good question if that’s a winning formula.
No points but Akey +2 in a 5-0 win – his first game of the season.
Yes, a 5-0 win meaning ANOTHER shutout for Samuel J. – 17 saves/
have we been searching for a partner for Nurse for 10 years? sizeable sample. is what he is
Great Bull Durham quote. The intentional omissions are noted 🙂
Well I couldn’t write something I didn’t believe in. 🙂
My emotional investment to this Oilers season isn’t in full swing yet. Call it a serious hangover from two Stanley Cup losses. At the same time I was captured by the Jays World Series pursuit, I’m coaching my daughters Hockey team this year and I just finished a rec touch football season with a championship. Of course I’ve been watching the games and have some thoughts.
*The team is not playing up the level we have seen them play during the post season.
*The season is long. Hopefully they are waving their efforts to peak when it matters most.
*As poor as they have been (giving up leads and allowing SH goals) they are off to a better start than the last two seasons.
*They have played 15 games, only Nashville and Boston have played the same number of games.
*They have played 9 road games. Pittsburgh, Vancouver and Calgary are the only other teams to play that many games away from home.
*They are getting hammered on the road. 6 out of 18 possible points
*They are crushing it on home ice. 10 of 12 possible points.
*They are playing in mostly one goal games. They have one power win and one power loss according to S Slushy’s criteria of winning by 2 or more goals excluding EN.
*5 games into OT. 2 wins, a loss and 2 SO losses (they seem to not really care when it hits this stage).
*97+29 are not consistently playing the dominant game we know they can. It is starting to show up more often.
*93 has been the most consistent forward.
*2’s struggles are well documented and have absolutely cost the team points on the board. He will be better. The rest he will get during the Olympic break will hopefully allow him to continue to dominate the playoffs.
*25 has been all over the map(awful and great), as per usual. Hopefully 96 and him sort out their pairing.
*22+53+48+86 have played a total of 70 NHL games combined. Coach KK is trying to break in 4 players to a championship roster while juggling injuries to established vets.
*10 has no role or identity on this team. Is it his ankle injury, the coach not guiding him or him not grabbing it by the horns?
*There is no 4th line. When Kapanen and Janmark comeback we will have a trusted 4th line.
*The return of 18 will slot all players appropriately.
*Working 28+88 into the team will take time but they have both showed they can contribute. 28 has more speed than I thought 88 would be greasier.
*There will be a game where they seriously bond, either a big comeback or a brawl type thing, and then they will cook.
*The power play has turned hot fire after a bit of a slow start. 28 adds a new wrinkle.
*The PK is middle of the pack, not sure which direction it will go as the season moves along.
Anyway thanks for listening. I always enjoy the banter, the passion for the Oilers and the mostly reasonable discussion. Cheers to our gracious host.
PS. That Crash Davis quote was absolute fire.
Hear hear!
Oilers again rocking the best PP in the NHL at 35%. 97, 29 and RNH get 1/2 or more of their points on the PP, while also being the 3 highest ESP getters.
Where I have a problem with the coaching staff is how they are using some of the other players, specifically Philp (need more than the 10 minutes a night he is getting). Pods is where he should be – with Leon. Roslovic should be with McDavid until Hyman returns. But playing Philp anywhere but 3C right now is doing a disservice to the team. KK needs to give Philp reps so that he is better prepared for the playoffs.
With Hyman
Mangi / McDavid / Hyman – Mangi back checks hard and is a good ‘defensive conscience’
Pods / Leon / Roslovic
Frederic / RNH / Philp – one of the centers to take their strong-side faceoffs
Kapanen / Rico / Lazar – one of the centers to take their strong-side faceoffs
I like Philip, and I agree he needs to play more, but I don’t see a significant difference maker. There seems to be a lot of interest in this player yet I am not sure why. But he needs more than 10 mins.
Teams that aren’t going anywhere can take a flyer on the player and watch him develop – live with the mistakes. KK is not willing to do so.
Do any of the rookies/young players make any more mistakes than any of the veterans?
3/4 lines are a problem early. Hyman returning might restore some balance.
Player | TOI/GP | CF% | FF% | GF% | xGF% | PDO
Henrique | 11.6 | 52.2 | 53.9 | 44.4 | 52.9 | 0.966
Frederic | 12.6 | 44.9 | 48.1 | 36.4 | 45.3 | 0.964
Savoie | 11.0 | 46.9 | 47.1 | 27.3 | 46.5 | 0.917
Howard | 9.1 | 45.4 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 40.8 | 0.958
Philp | 10.2 | 40.9 | 40.6 | 33.3 | 31.6 | 0.951
Tomasek | 8.8 | 48.4 | 50.8 | 33.3 | 44.3 | 0.927
Henrique/McDavid/Hyman
Podz/Draisaitl/Roslovic
Frederic/Nuge/Mangiapane
Lazar/Janmark/Kapanen
Other then a goaltender, imo Stan will be hunting for a left winger for McDavid’s line. Yes, Nuge is that now but the depth and the ability to score in the bottom six at 5×5 is a glaring need.
Putting your top 3 centers in their proper role will help that, depending where Henrique is at the time of acquiring a winger for McDavid’s left flank, he becomes 4C with probably two various vets.
My playoff lineup doesn’t include any of the kids, would love it to be a different reality but with Knoblauch running the bench I don’t see any of that as a possibility.
If Washington remains at the bottom of their division, is there anyway Howard or Savoie with some sweetener can be traded for Tom Wilson?
Hyman/McDavid/Wilson would be one hell of a unit to send over the boards.
The problem, as usual when the Oilers are losing, is goal scoring.
More than 3 goals all of twice.
2 or fewer regulation goals seven times.
Wildly low for their talent level.
Have to play the trap because of need to baby our C-level Goalies. Bowman tried the Ingram route that so far looks like a miss it’s on to plan B before we get too far into a hole.
Never seen a sports fan require such immediate results from every transaction.
Its been 3 games for Ingram.
Are we sure the trades deadline acquisition required isn’t a LHD?
Goaltenders are not available.
Wingers we have plenty, they just need to be better.
Seems to me we need LHD insurance for:
Nurse cause he’s Nurse and might put up a -17 in the playoffs, and
Eckholm cause he’s getting up there in age.
Kulak plus something nice for a LHD Nurse upgrade?
we have walman already who can do that.
Goaltending is 100% the priority. shifting out philp. stecher. tomacek.
Perhaps a team with a younger 4c who is established would be intrigued by the possible upside of tomasek and trade for him.
Kulak IS our LHD insurance. He is a beast (and a huge value contract) in the playoffs.
(And Walman.)
There are some glaring issues, the blowing of leads, the shaky goaltending, the bleeding of high dangers.
There are some culprits that are hemorrhaging chances against. These are very good AHL players who have been playing on the team but will not be once health is secured for hyman, kappy, and regula.
Troy stecher appears to be past his best before date, 50% goal share looks ok but its on 39% xgf and 36% HDCF share. I have not seen him good in a single game he has played. Regula is a significantly better bet for the #7 spot and is younger, bigger, faster, and has an opportunity to be part of the future.
David tomacek is a case of smoke and mirrors. His numbers with McDavid are ok but they are definitely getting zoomed, his with or without numbers show a dramatic drop off.
i know this is a deeply unpopular opinion around here but Noah Philp is underwater… a 33% goal share on a 32% Xgf share and a 38% HDCF share. Despite his story and the fact he played for the golden bears and his size etc he is not getting the job done consistently IMHO. Despite what many of us feel about him being a “prospect” he is only 3 yrs younger than lazar who can PK, and has significantly better underlying’s.
Ultimately
Nuge-Davo-Hyms
Podz-Drat-Ros
Freddi-Rico-Savoie
Howard-Lazar-mangiapane.
appears to be the best option, mangi has been playing ok but he appears to be the hard working bottom 6 player he was in Washington, not the 30+ goal scorer he was in calgary. Shifting mangi back to the bottom 6 should improve his numbers and the bottom 6 lines.
Whatever Philp is he needs games and ice time to show. Maybe still to grow and adjust (I know he’s no spring chicken). He hasn’t had one long stretch of either.
I just dont know why we are assuming a 27 year old who has never played a full season in the league is going to be something different than what he has shown us. If he was in some other organization we would be saying he wasnt a good option.
You simply cannot play him more than 10 mins a night 5v5. That is not a NHL player.
Noah Philp has played 10 mins or more 5 games this season and has been outscored 3gf to 5ga and out high dangered to the tune of 13 HDCA for 6 HDCF.
Ike howard has played 10 mins or more 6 times this season and has been outscore 3 gf to 4 ga and out high dangered to the tune of 7 hdcf to 9 hdca.
Matt Savoie has played 10 mins or more 13 times this season and has been 5gf to 9ga and out high dangered to the tune of 23 HDCF to 41 HDCA.
Savoie and howard are beginning to post crooked numbers in a positive way but they have offensive ceiling so you can afford to invest in some wart removal for the first half of the season… Philp does not have a ceiling higher than a good 4c from what i can see.
The move for now is to either trade him for a 4c who is established or utilize curtis lazar who is much more consistent defensively from an analytical standpoint.
This is a good post.
Philip is a great story, but he’s 27 and not at an age where you expect growth in his game.
Player | TOI/GP | CF% | FF% | GF% | xGF% | PDO
Philp | 10.2 | 40.9 | 40.6 | 33.3 | 31.6 | 0.951
Lazar | 9.8 | 50.8 | 51.2 | 50.0 | 55.9 | 1.012
3rd line won’t produce, 4th line won’t produce or get any minutes to show if they can.
Beau Akey has been cleared and assigned for Ft. Wayne – he plays tonight.
good. let him play huge mins in ft wayne and then he can go to bako once he is up and rolling.
i still feel like we need a defensive LHD prospect for bako.
Kid is a bandaid already in his young hockey life.
Mangiapane had a great back check that started the turnover on the McDavid goal. Coach will love that.
I mentioned this last night. Six points every five games is playoff pace. Through games 11-15, they had six points, and they’re only two points off for the entire year so far.
But they have also pissed away at least three, maybe even all four points they didn’t get in three of the last four games.
Blown leads in four straight.
Unlike the past two years, they aren’t in dire need of a five game win streak, but my God, maybe like a three gamer, so I can feel better?
Vegas is Vegas. LA is LA.
Anaheim’s kids seem to have arrived. They should cool off a bit, but there’s a chance they don’t.
Seattle should be a mirage, but they’ve also underperformed for two years.
Crazy that compared to the last two years, this year’s Oilers are in a way better spot, yet it certainly doesn’t feel like it.
That’s a very optimistic viewpoint. The Oilers are currently on pace for 87.5 points over 82 games. That’s 11 points off.
This is where I think “on pace” kind of falls apart, at least this early on.
Had they won the shootout, or failing that, even made it 90 more seconds in St Louis, they would suddenly make up ~6 points, on pace for 93, on the lower end of playoff status.
By the same measurement, Anaheim is “on pace” for 116 points. That seems very optimistic, in my opinion.
6 points every 5 games is the metric. And they aren’t too far off from that, especially in comparison to past years.
True, but the flip side is their 5v5 goal share is still sitting at 45.6% — 27th in the league.
That’s the kind of number that rarely belongs to a playoff team, no matter how you slice the pace math.
Stat Value NHL Rank
GF% 45.6% 27th
xGF% 48.9% 22nd
FF% 50.7% 16th
CF% 50.4% 18th
PDO 0.973 30th
SH% 7.6% 28th
SV% 89.7% 27th
I’m not sure how much Anaheim will slow down.
Moneypuck now has the Ducks projected at winning second in the division behind Vegas.
Not only are they the highest scoring team in the league by a fair bit, but Lukas Dostal is ranked #1 in the league at 10.9 goals saved above expected.
And the Ducks are not relying on the powerplay to outscore.
Both Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier are exploding offensively with latter becoming one of three fastest players in the modern age to reach 10 goals in the first 12 games joining Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.
Gauthier scored 3 and an assist last night but could easily have scored 4 or 5 with a little bit of luck.
Nathan MacKinnon almost always leads the league in SOG and is doing so this season with 61 in but Gauthier is right behind him with 58 in two fewer games.
Seattle is the team I think most likely to fade since they are trying to win with low event hockey scoring only 33 goals while giving up 33.
Anaheim’s been a great story, but the metrics don’t quite back a 116-point pace.
At 5-on-5 they’re sitting around 47.4% xGF% (21st) and 45.3% SCF% (24th) — both below playoff caliber.
Their PDO is 1.020, which usually signals an unsustainably hot run (Dostal’s been excellent, but that’s banking on elite goaltending and finishing luck holding).
They’re scoring efficiently right now, but the expected-goals profile suggests some regression’s coming.
In short — fun team, great start, but the underlying numbers look more “wildcard contender” than “division powerhouse.”
Generally speaking…young players improve with experience and Anaheim has a ton of them.
McTavish 22, Gauthier 21, Carlsson 20, Sennecke 19.
———
Lacombe 24, Helleson 24, Zellwegger 22, Mintyukov 21
Worth noting that two veteran centres who were brought in to provide some cover for the kids have been on IR.
Ryan Strome has yet to play this season and Mikael Granlund is due back shortly and was scoring at a PPG pace in the 8 games he’s played.
Strome is apparently practising with the team with Quenevelle saying he’ll be back soon.
Moneypuck has the Ducks projected to finish with 95.8 points and that seems reasonable to me.
Clearly Dostal is going to finish the season with +60 GSAA. I mean there’s absolutely no other possibility
Of course he won’t.
That doesn’t mean he will turn into a Skinner.
Numbers on Nurse/Walman match the eye test – tough game for Walman as compared to his play this season – happens.
Is it a one-off and the staff should let them play through it or does early season Nurse/Regula make some sense.
I believe a McDavid one-time in to a wide open net off a great 3-way passing play on the rush is a HDSC.
Hence the danger of using NST’s high danger numbers (which drives to expected goals I would presume).
NST Scoring chances were developed by War on Ice. The McDavid goal was firmly in the MDSC region. Highest correlation to goals is HDSC + MDSC. MDSC are almost as valuable as HDSC in the model. WOI’s scoring chances reflect hextally locations on the ice. Not other variables.
NST Expected Goals are derived from the Manny Elk Corsica model. They use more variables than hextally attempt location.
The two models are seperate.
Lowetide’s beliefs do not fully coincide with Crash’s beliefs.
That is true.
The continuation of disappointing performances continue.
Not once this season has this team simply imposed its will on the opposition, showed its high end elite skill, along with high performing 2-way defence (at least they are paid to be as such) along with experience, etc., etc.
Ya, there have been a couple good games, but just a couple.
The overall performances have generally been disappointing.
The nuances of the game have shown disappointment – missed assignments, turnovers in all zones, lack of commitment to details, poor net front player, etc., etc.
Its very uninspiring.
There is a tiny bit of creep coming in to my thoughts that maybe this is just what this team is but then I realize that, nope, this isn’t who McDavid and Drai are. This isn’t who Bouch is (i.e. will be once his early season blahs going away). This isn’t who Zach Hyman in.
As I said last night, here is hoping this three-day break is used as a proper re-set. Take today off to sleep in, refresh, walk the dog, spend time with the wife and kids. Get back to work tomorrow and Friday and coming out with an intensity on Saturday night.
Its time!
The Oilers don’t have the established horses and aren’t playing the young stallions. Ike Howard is No. 3 in five-on-five scoring among wingers. He played 7:22 last night. KK is trying to win with sixes and sevens and nines, when his future Jacks are Howard and Savoie. The popgun five-on-five offense will eventually cost KK his job, but they just signed him. So, hope for an epiphany or a trade.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2025-10-22&td=2025-11-05&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Yes the coach really needs to be held accountable just as much as any player does
I remain concerned with this coaching staff.
Knoblauch seems to deploy to try to maximize xGF%. Uses the blender for scoring. Which is mostly putting 97 & 29 together.
Every team is better when they roll 4 lines, when everyone is involved.
Philp has lost all his early season mojo with the undeserved benchings, Howard actually needs to see the ice with playmakers, Tomasek should of chose a lottery team.
A lot are high on Henrique, but like all his time as 3C there’s next to no production. He’s not a threat whatsoever, no matter who his wingers are there’s nothing for the opposition to be concerned about.
Kulak/Regula should of saw more ice time, kinda ridiculous.
If Stan’s plan is to roll with Knoblauch, sell the kids for vets with cache. Kids will never see the light of day with this coaching staff.
There was talk about Henrique playing on McDavid’s wing, a line with Henrique-McDavid -Hyman might work well as a top line. That would allow Nuge to play 3c they could be more productive as a 3rd unit say with Mangiapane & Freddy . The forward group will have a face lift in the next couple weeks with Hyman’s return. IMO the fourth line will have more continuity with a regular trio. Once they separate the wheat from the chaff there will be four lines a rolling.
This article just confirms the nonsense of advance analytics. I just don’t see what they are telling the coach or the gm.
I consider it an extreme compliment that you took the time to read an article that must have been a difficult experience. I thank you!
Personally I read all of them but still don’t get it. I’m sure the numbers mean something, and from what you say, I get a glimmer of optimism, which is needed in these days of crappy eye tests.
well honestly, I wrote the numbers for Bruce, so if people don’t want to see them I can frame them in a non-math way. It would be easier, actually.
I absolutely love the numbers (and your writing) LT. I do believe the numbers inform the GM’s upcoming decisions. We are very early, I agree with at least 20 games before drawing conclusions. Last year I seem to recall McDavid and Jeff Skinner getting badly outscored early on. I can absolutely see Howard or Savoie being moved if there is a fit and if they are not a solution this season.
I will say, as a non-numbers person, that after many, many years of reading these posts, I am starting to get the hang of them. I do often skip over the numbers, but there are some times where things really pop. Like the Walman-Nurse numbers (1-10 high dangers scoring chances is something else). I like seeing HDSC as it gives a better sense of states of play than simple shot clocks. Just my 2 cents (worth less than that really).
My goal has always been to make the numbers make sense for normal humans. Bill James made baseball math easy for me to understand, but I haven’t been able to do the same. No one has of course, and that’s too bad. The math folks tend not to be people persons, and the people persons tend to be like me (challenged by the numbers).
LT… please continue to post the numbers. I can honestly admit it’s taken (or took) the better part of a decade to understand them, and I still struggle with a few to this day. I can recall around 2010 I didn’t want to post to not sound silly with the advanced statisticians here. It was very intimidating at that time. It took me years before I just broke down knowing I was a math luddite, and people would eventually figure out how stupid I was anyway. Heck, on occasion I even try to use PuckIQ to make a point, but usually can’t sort the data correctly and revert back to ‘Sticks Up’.
I appreciate the numbers, and your honouring of Bruce. I miss his perspective. RIP
I appreciate the numbers, love the advanced stats to balance out the eye test when one or the other speaks to loudly.
But this is a math blog, isn’t it?
Well it’s a hockey blog first.
There are, it seems, “the numbers,” and then there is interpretation. “We don’t know what we don’t know,” except for our biases (if we take time to reflect). The numbers throw a flashlight beam in a dark cave. That’s all. It’s a help, sometimes.
The other factor, besides numbers trying to throw light on the dark chaos of hockey unfolding, besides our biases, is history.
When our host tempers the numbers with the record of how individual players and the team have performed, that’s what I’m here for.
Thanks LT.
ps. One of my biases is to give goalies the benefit of the doubt. I’m sure this comes as no surprise. Another is that I really have no clue about what players, coaches, GM are thinking or going through. So I’m trying to remain curious. Open to surprise. And wary of those who think they do know. Go Oilers! A fun and entertaining team that got me to be a hockey fan again.
To me, the numbers help provide the full picture. Much better to use all information available to us, compared with only forming assessments from eye-test or from the stats in isolation. Also, the stats offer hard data. We are all prone to biases, predisposed beliefs, and missed observations in real-time.
The problem isn’t the numbers, it’s a lack of understanding of the numbers. The correlative power of hockey advanced stats isn’t as high as it is for other sports (i.e. more luck, randomness, things that aren’t currently captured by the stats we have). We don’t have numbers for ‘all 5 players on the ice supporting each other’ or ‘disrupts the other team with good stickwork, bodywork, etc.’. We also have a scoring system that highlights a few moments in time (i.e. Bouchard lays an egg and the puck is in the net and the game is over) where in basketball for example if a player coasts on one play it’s only 2 points in an ~100pt game). I like the numbers and I like that they are getting better (and appreciated the time and effort of all those who make them possible, including our author). Doesn’t mean they predict everything.
meant to add “doesn’t mean they predict everything, doesn’t mean they don’t have value”
As for Howard plus in a deal for Tuch, the only way to trade off young talent is if Tuch signs at least a 4 year extension.
Given that Buffalo already has 8 forwards under 25 on their roster, it’s highly unlikely they would have much interest in Howard.
It’s reasonable to assume they would want an established player in return for Tuch.
Probably right
Alex Tuch would be amazing in Edmonton alongside McDavid. But what would it take?
That’s a tough one.
McDavid and Drai were completely gassed by OT. Playing them this much and the Olympic tournament with no break for them ( Germany will play Drai a ton) is going to come back and bite the team in the ass late in their and playoffs.
Let’s face it , if they can’t score 4 or more in a game with this goaltending duo and D , they will lose more than they win .
They need more help . I believe Bowman is working on it.
But what and where and what will it cost
Ah the future, always hidden in the mist . . . . . . .
Drail will likely be done playing a week before the tournament ends – he’ll have lots of time to rest.