As messy as things have been so far this season, the Edmonton Oilers are the proud owners of a better record than one would believe when viewing the team’s games.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1) Actual 0-1-0
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 4-4-1, nine points in nine games
- Season Record: 9-8-4, 22 points in 21 games
That’s a record the organization can be pleased with considering the quality of play so far in 2025-26. Disagree? Let me run some numbers by you. All of these totals are five-on-five. Edmonton is No. 31 (of 32) in goals-for percentage (41); No. 23 in expected goals (48 percent); No. 27 in shooting percentage (7.87); No. 32 in save percentage (.876).
These are awful numbers, and come during a period when the coaches are running the hell out of top players.
One thing I know is that when the Oilers are doing poorly, the whip comes down from all corners of hockey. From goalies who spent the 1980’s fishing pucks out of the back of their nets because the Oilers made them look silly, to fans who remain outraged at Edmonton’s lottery luck, to dinks with a need to increase anxiety in others, all manner of blows are being rained down on the team today.
Thing is, there are some incredible numbers one can quote. The modern NHL coach should figure out something for the third and fourth line by Game 20, but we are here. I like to use centers as proxy for lines 1-4 and normally it works well. The Oilers are a mell of a hess on the bottom six, so I’m going to run the Glimmer Twins together, then solo, plus Henrique solo, then the rest. All five-on-five:
Glimmer Twins 62 pct in 159 minutes; McDavid solo 38 pct in 211 minutes; Draisaitl 71 pct in 190 minutes; Adam Henrique 29 pct in 223 minutes; The rest 18 pct in 224 minutes. These are miserable numbers, and added to the miserable outlets and playing the top lines too much, we are here. It’s a disconnect of mammoth proportions, borne of pure stubbornness and refusal to adapt. And you know what comes in life if you don’t adapt. Godspeed, Kris Knoblauch, I’m still a believer.
CONDORS
Ike Howard is in the AHL and floating boats! My goodness his first two games have been a wonder. Now, I’m all-in one Quinn Hutson and am wildly impressed with Josh Samanski, but Howard is a difference maker at this level out of the box. Loving the progress in even-strength points from the youngsters, too.
Atro Leppanen is going off currently, his offensive output is impressive in recent games. His goal share is also improving, and he’s playing some minutes with rookie Beau Akey. This defense needs a difference maker, but AHL teams are rarely blessed with defenders who play complete games. I’m convinced of Carfagna as a real NHL prospect and Akey does some good things, too.
Two good starts in a row for Ingram now, he’s coming on. He’s .908 in the last two contests.
Among current Condors, I think my order or recall would be Ike Howard, Roby Jarventie, Connor Ingram, Quinn Hutson, Josh Samanski, Luke Prokop (AHL deal, he would need to sign an NHL contract).
Zach Hyman’s return gives Oilers a lift, but can he deliver in all areas?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6814705/2025/11/19/zach-hymans-oilers-return/
I’m wondering what unmeasurable “intangibles” (leadership, grit) he brings to locker room and bench?
On the surface that we can see and has been mentioned is his energy and always positive attitude. That he is a top player in the league lends a lot of credibility to the regular fellas. Perry also lent his version
It’s also why often regular players like that are sought and kept as long as possible – guys like Pickard, Luke Gazdic, Ryan etc. It’s an intense job, and often the best players aren’t the light hearted ones that help keep things level or give a boost to the room. The top guys are often very intense, like our guys are
Anything he does in terms of leadership would show up in the goal share. That’s always been my opinion.
Did I miss the conversation addressing how LT lost his handle on his own blog? Or, was this a purposeful change?
Lowetide has two ways to sign in now, this one is easier. If it upsets people, I can revert.
Not upsetting, just a bit shocking after 2 decades of seeing a tongue on a pole.
Makes complete sense.
That’s a relief… I thought you may have gotten locked out of the primary account 🙂
Just caught the box score … wow.
It was a one-goal game – two empty netters.
Pretty even game, really. Expected goals on NST about even.
Oilers had some terrible defending and turnovers (so did the Caps, mind you).
One sequence of great tending by Logan T. (which Skinner didn’t match) was the difference – well, once could say. One could also say Brett Kulak in the first period was the difference, for example.
Only consulation prize:
I’m starting to find humour in jack trying to come up with ways to frame score or some event like it really might he the game changer in oilers favour or close to making a game of it.
That buffalo game surely almost broke him but it was hilarious. There were a couple good reaches tonight.
Kulak has had an absolutely horrid November … maybe he should sit for a game and Walman should move back to LHD, with Regula and Emberson playing RHD with him and Nurse.
There was energy tonight. The corner is close IMO.
I know I’m supposed to wait five years, but we maybe shoulda drafted that Wallstedt fellow.
I remain hopeful Jarventie becomes a perennial 20 goal scorer for the oilers who torments and scores an inexplicable 14% of his career goals on wallstedt.
I keep thinking the worm has got to turn at some point, but the way they are losing is very sustainable. Tonight was better than Buffalo, that’s meaningless when the defense can’t do anything.
What in hell has happened to Brett Kulak? The most reliable player on the team for almost his entire Oiler career has suddenly, in the last 15 games, become utterly unplayable?
As others have pointed out, it may be lazy criticism, but at some point, an NHL goaltender needs to make a save.
Goal 2- yes, Kulak coughed it up, and they were running around, but he is not out enough in his crease to even have a chance to get a piece.
Goal 3- yes, Kulak was flailing around, but it’s a standard play. He’s down too early, and it’s so SO easy to score that goal.
Goal 4- yes, Bouchard is far too soft, but again, he’s far too deep in his net, and has no momentum to go side to side, so a simple deke is all it takes.
Goal 5 (GOAL 5?!!!)- yes, it’s a 2 on 1 and Ekholm can’t let that pass across, but he again has no momentum and can’t get over in time. Save that, and they get at least a point.
Increasingly clearer that this ain’t our year. It just ain’t.
The past two American Thanksgivings, they’ve been out of a playoff spot. So, what do I know?
It’s November 2025…and we are still talking about getting a goalie.
Negligence
The difference is… now we need two.
I think Bowman should stay the course. This team needs to figure it out same as the coach. Even if it means retooling and selling at the deadline. Desperation trade or firing another coach hurts us long term. Some times it’s not your year.
There’s nothing to sell.
Not that they are playing well but Kulak, Henrique, Skinner, on expiring contracts, would have value at the deadline.
Roslovic would have real value.
Kap on an expiring contract could warrant a depth pick.
My xAvg method was developed learning from dads (Avro Arrow, Boreal detect (on rockets) sys, Design (Landsat, seasat, Radarsat, & co work Harp project, Maglev). 1st applied in marteril analysis NAIT early 95’ of late 80s lobby 4 pladtic pkg. Told class ocean would fill w/ plastic.
Girl said solve it (had not even considered it & I did (Final project w/ Redwater area pilot site)
In any analysis their are binary exclusion (On/off, ball/strike, etc) outcome and indv. situational Multi variable mechanic outcomes.
y closed sh theory requires them to be excluded from succes heat maps (1st learned creating TransAlta 3D Maint design flaw flagging sys) & Seperate closed SH data.
People argued that everyone regressed to same over all SH%.
but each F (generates) & D (suppress their side) an open sh targeting rate.
Goalies have a:
A. Hit by puck rate (by size)
B. Hit by puck rate (Tracking)
C. Open Shot save%
all y,z Elevation
Last week talked to Kramer Barnstable (Stable in the Net & Hockey Alberta) that each dmans side has a different open SH Save% xAvg baseline. You can be a top 10 +ve perf vs xAvg goalie, but a .865 baseline established on a d side, can make a goalie look like shite!
08/09??? Pointed out to VOR (Rob Volmann ???, Hockey Abstract, LAK analytics) that there is a success route tree for the very action that can expand out or loop it self in all area/mechanic pairs on the ice.
You look for the best mechanic success paths to play!
Contratulated D. Suter at Carl’s corner for the cups & trading for McNabb. perforce I left he found me & Told me we are turning them (intro) fu king robots. Recently realized The Sutters firing in LA matched with Vollman hiring!
Edm current def pkay is so far off the best system mechanics success route tree! 07/08 bad = Broken robots!
wonderful to see you rickithebear
This is the end
My beautiful friend
Say good bye Knobby
It’s the only lever Bowman can pull
He isn’t trading for a new goalie
None exist
He isn’t trading for an impact DMan from a position of weakness
So is Nuge getting close to the all time record for most head coaches with one team? Or maybe he already has it? My goodness, so many in season firings.
It was weird that Stuart got promoted given how abysmal the PK was last year.
Well the PK is better this year. But that’s the only thing that’s better.
He also coached the PK to historic greatness in the playoffs before.
PK was 9th in the league last time I checked (3-4 days ago).
Flames … worst team in the league before tonight … are pasting the same Sabres who took the Oilers out to woodshed last game.
Same script every night. Play soft hockey, terrible defence, porous net minding. Get behind a few goals and then try to stage a furious 3 rd period come back and overplay your stars. Sometimes it works, most nights it doesn’t. Coaching staff have lost the plot. Something needs to change and soon.
Bring up Clattenburg show the boys what a hungry player looks like.
Clattenburg would put on a show but he would also:
1) take minor penalties pitting the team short
2) leak goals against by being out of position and not being able to make plays with the puck
3) likely get hurt
Clatt has one of the worst goal differentials on the team despite what he does bring.
As his coach said on Monday (again): “We are trying to get Connor to play hockey”.
Yep – this isn’t Slap Shot. Calling up a guy whose calling card is punching faces is not going to fix what ails the Oilers.
This team has the talent to play a more aggressive and uptemp style, but they are being undone by shoddy goaltending.
The Caps were just as sloppy in their own end, but Thompson made some huge stops in big moments that was the difference for them.
The team has in almost every game this season had the second best goalie in net. Say what you will about the defensive play and the breakouts, but the problems start in net.
The Edmonton Oilers: Good for what ails you
(if you’re the opposition)
Fi-re Knob-lauch
CLAP-CLAP
CLAP-CLAP-CLAP
feeling more like a woodcroft end-of-days scenario
Gotta wonder what’s going on in that dressing room. Two straight SCF appearances is a proof of concept for a coach…
Seravalli reported that Coffey and KK butted heads on things.
With Coffey and Gulutzan gone maybe we’re seeing the full KK vision play out.
Unless you happened to wear 99 or are Glen Sather, who the hell are you to butt heads with Paul Coffey about hockey???
Maybe bring Coffey back as the head coach when they return to Edmonton?
Seems that they will lose the next 2 to go 2-5 on the trip and 9-11-4 on the season. With the way they are playing, a breaking point has to be coming for this group.
As they fly back from the road trip, Dallas will be sitting and waiting for them.
Dallas has 2 days off after playing in Calgary on Saturday.
I defended Stu last year. A lot. That ended in Game 6 of the SCF. I can’t believe he’s still an oiler…
He’s Just a good ol’ boy never meaning no harm….
Didn’t even watch the game and im sure the team was completely dominated and defense sucked but .737 SVP is not going to do it for any team in the league. Our goaltending is 32nd out of 32 teams. Does Bowman still think we are getting average goaltending?
What a GM thinks and says publicly are usually not the same.
I was willing to give Bowman the benefit of the doubt when he was hired. But he’s been an abject failure:
Letting Holloway walk.
Trading assets to get a broken Frederic, then doubling down and signing him to an 8 year deal.
Signing Mangiapane, a player that wasn’t good enough to play for the Falmes.
Passing on multiple options to improve the goaltending over this summer and on waivers, and instead getting a goalie who we’re not even sure has the mental fortitude to still play in the NHL.
Resigning KK early in the season rather than letting it play out to see how the team would perform.
Waiting until the season was over to get Bouchard signed, under duress from another offer sheet.
There has been a few positives: Walman (sort of … we’ll see how well his contract extension works out), Roslovic, Podz … but not enough to offset the bad stuff.
I am not going to be surprised if the Oilers go 2-5 on this road trip, and are out of a playoff position by American Thanksgiving.
They need someone to come in and do a complete house cleaning from the Jackson on down to Bowman and coaching staff, down to players with NMC/NTCs like Nurse, Frederic, Mangiapane and Henrique.
Sadly, I don’t think that there is any one in the organization with the fortitude to do anything other than watch this thing go off the rails so badly that McDavid asks for a trade first.
Yeah, the old boys club still has an affect in Edmonton. Hiring people as favours.
If they weren’t going to bring in Quennville there was no point in hiring Bowman unless you want to look up in the standings at Anaheim for the next decade.
The team was NOT completely dominated but, yes, the defence sucked – in particular Kulak – worst first period I’ve even seen a d-man have – Samorukov will be showing the highlights on loop.
Too little, too late.
Feels like we gotta learn this every dang year.
We will get it. Just hope it doesn’t take a shakeup of some kind.
Wouldn’t surprise me if they did, though…
They aren’t going to magically run with the same game and succeed. Try harder doesn’t work when everyone is already giving everything they got. Something has to change, surely everyone on the team can see that. The question is what changes to try and at what cost.
Winning puck battles and second efforts all over the ice. Why can’t they realize you gotta play like this all game?
Have not been watching much if at all this year. But… Frederic. 21 games. One goal. Zero assists. How did they look at that and say “lock him up for eight years.”
That is a Campbell or Neal-esque fail.
Neal had a prorated 20 goal season according to the NHL
That sequence from Thompson is one of the things the Oilers are really missing.
Timely saves has cost us 2 plus Cups
Recovery ability is a skill.
Skinner is often 1 and done
And Oilers D allow free loitering net front
Over the Summer besides bringing himself into the Olympic Team conversation on making the team Skinner wanted to lead the league in not allowing any rebounds.
Ia guess if you let most of the 1st shots go in that reduces the number or rebounds?
BOOM!!! Drai says “It ain’t over yet”!!!
Skinner looks the the old B Goalie in NHL 94 on the Sega console.
Ho hum another odd man rush. 14 can’t let that pass across.
Walman gives up a 3 on 1 a few shits ago and now a 2 on 1 for a backbreaking goal.
at some point you need a save … it is the NHL. there will be screens, tips, 2 on 1’s ….
NEED A SAVE
The Skinner era is mercifully coming to a end.
You can see it in his mannerisms after goals. He’s stunned with the volume of ultra high dangers, mix in some bad luck and he just doesn’t have the ability to keep enough of them out of the net.
The way this team plays D is not a good fit for him
This team plays D????? Really?? River hockey mostly.
Pun intended.
Yah not sure what to call what happena when thet don’t have the puck.
Trying to think of a G that would survive it. Maybe MAF in his prime? Need to be super athletic with great side to side push and rebound control.
I really like Dostals athletic ability
This speaks to the disconnect between the forwards and defense. Defense shouldn’t step up unless a forward is coming back to support – and it does not happen.
There is a system issue – and that’s 100% on the coaches unless you’re telling me Walman is a dumb player.
Janmark did cover Walman but then made a dumb play on the blue line trying to play the puck with his knee.
They tend to stack dumb plays on top of each other.
Used to enjoy players that could recognize danger and calmly cover for their team mates and defuse the situation.
Pronger and Lidstrom were two of the best of course.
You’d rarely question Jason Smith’s D positioning and level of urgency.
Regula was actually trying to battle his man in front in the first period, the guy got his stick free and scored and Regula has got one shift since. He’s played 1:33.
Kulak is lucky to not be 0-5 goals and is 0-15 in November and they keep rolling him out there.
Knoblach couldn’t miss when he joined but that was a long while ago, quickly loosing my patience. We don’t have Klingberg that’s it, same defense as the playoffs. Klingberg played well but he’s not better than Walman. The defense is not this bad, this is coaching.
BOOM!!! Tommy boy!!! Here we come!!!
Janmark point!
As Mangiapane has been for 6 weeks, he’s had a solid game offensively tonight….
Come on Oilers, dominate a period, score some goals, change some vibes.
I flipped over to the Raptor game. That’s a team full of players that know how to execute their role.
Fun team to watch. I typically go back and forth if they are playing same time as Oilers. On a night like tonight it’s more 90-10 Raptors. Oilers are extremely hard team to watch the way they have been playing this year.
Good thing the oilers used Mcdavids hometown discount to lock in Trent Fredrick for 8 years. Bowman is starting to feel way too much like Chia 2.0
Same hair style
Something tells me that Schwartz is at home with a beer feeling pretty vindicated right about now…
Maybe it’s the Goalies + Defending?
who the hell replaces KK? I dont think Bowman will do it, but maybe ……
Bowman is the one that needs to be replaced. What an abject failure.
DeBoer.
But his comfort blanket minny me, Steve Spott, is now an assistant in Boston.
The young gun from the wicked USA development program is probably going to score 20 Goals at the unheard of age of 20. If only we had someone like this to possibly score Goals and win us games on our team.
You keep banging this drum but he didn’t do it in his audition. He had his chance and he didn’t bury enough. He is where he needs to be and is playing fantastic.
Nevermind that the Oilers are a mess right now. Do we really want to expose our top prospect to this kind of dysfunction?
I don’t know about this game so far… I feel like we need to try passing the puck out of the slot more when we’re attacking. Or maybe we should pass the puck from the slot to another more heavily covered guy in the slot. Have they even tried stretch passes to a guy at the red line who tips the puck in?
I think this coaching staff is cooked after the road trip.
Very similar to the year Woody got punted.
I am skeptical a coaching change changes their fortunes this season. Too much systemic fatigue / heartache to overcome this year.
The D is completely ineffective. Stuart has to go at the very least no????
Yep – pretty clear the team needs a new hand to steer this rudderless ship.
Do it now. Fly Coffey out there and replace Stuart. Not ideal during a road trip but this team is broken and needs a shake-up. Season is slipping away…
Draisaitl looking uninterested tonight. Far too common this season.
Nuge is sorely missed on the PP
McDavid bailed out Bouchard twice on that PP. Carelessness all around.
Draisaitl was the guy coughing it up.
That pass into the middle of the ice was brutal.
This year’s Oilers are a bad nhl team. They have talent, but they don’t play hard enough or smart enough.
Hahaha, what a sequence by 2 and 74! Not even close to snuffing that out. Leonard made them look like they dont belong in the league
Bouchard shoulder checked him and tried with the stick
Leonard is a high skill player, wish he would have won the battle, but at least he was there doing something. He may have been out of ideal position, but at least he was in the play
Ha, yep #2 was in the play alright. Another also in photo.
The fact he didn’t notice Leonard earlier then simply close the gap and position himself between Leonard and the net earlier is just baffling at this level.
Instead he stays up ice in the middle like he thinks another player is coming? There is nobody within 25 ft of him. Another case of a very poor read. Getting beat 1 on 1 that easily can not happen at this level. Especially if you’re asked to play 20+ min.
Olympic suits in the house? no chance
Ok, this has to be the game that gets someone fired. Has to be. There absolutely needs to be urgency to fix this team. There’s having a bad season and then there is having a terrible season that breaks the core of your franchise. I am in the LT camp that this team can’t suddenly not know how to play and you can’t give up on them.
Knobbie probably gone after this road trip
It’s time
He could try to lead Stuart out of this train wreck, not sure wtf he’s doing
After the road trip is 2 games too late
Did they really need to give him a 3 year contract? Was someone else after him?
Come on, Bouch. Fire that guy into the corner…getting outmuscled when you have the downhill advantage it just a guy wanting it more than you..,
Appears to not be his job to defend. Only explanation
Agreed that he should have been harder on the man but what the hell was Skinner doing on that play? He looked the kid in minor hockey that gets thrown in net when the goalie can’t play.
.733 SV% tough to overcome
Bouchard definitely shit himself there, but Skinner is so passive and deep in his net He makes it easy for the shooter.
Get a damn goalie
Bouchard owned by a rookie.
U13s get benched for an effort that weak.