As much as a fan might want to rage against Edmonton Oilers loss against Washington Capitals last night, there was far more effort given and some signs of adjustments in breakouts. Far from perfect, but there’s a sliver of hope. Will it be enough to win tonight? I don’t think so. Will it be enough to save jobs? Too soon to know.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1) Actual 0-2-0
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 4-5-1, nine points in 10 games
- Season Record: 9-9-4, 22 points in 22 games
The Oilers are bleeding now, another week of losses will bring a reckoning. I’m not sure Kris Knoblauch has the answers, and there are definitely vibes similar to the final days of Jay Woodcroft’s time with the team.
One of the things I’ve always tried to encourage on this blog is for all of us to be less certain about everything. We can all look back on things we’ve written here and elsewhere that turned out wrong, but in the moment certainty, courage of conviction and an edge in verbal often wins the day online.
It doesn’t make you correct, and none of us likes to be reminded of errors in our strongly held views. I will tell you I don’t know if Kris Knoblauch will or should lose his job, the same way I didn’t know if Dustin Schwartz should lose his job.
I will tell you that, from my point of view, the team has looked indifferent in recent games and that’s a bad sign. I did see signs of life last night, and some good things, but what the hell do I know?
For me, firing a coach who took you to the Final two years in a row is a brazen choice. It’s a Lou thing. You have to be so damn sure. Is Stan Bowman sure? Suspect he makes a trade before the coach gets fired, but it’s a guess like any other.
FORWARD LINES
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Mangiapane: 7:04, 5-1 shots, 54 pct X; 5-3 HDSC
- Savoie-McDavid-Roslovic: 5:16, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 42 pct X; 2-2 HDSC
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman: 4:31, 2-1 shots, 94 pct X; 1-0 HDSC
- Frederic-Henrique-Hyman: 4:27, 1-3 shots, 14 pct X; 0-1 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Henrique-Roslovic: 2:04, 2-0 shots, 100 pct X; 3-0 HDSC
There are some interesting numbers here. I don’t know what’s rolling around in Knoblauch’s brain for tonight, but I’d run Podkolzin-Henrique-Roslovic for more than two minutes. In fact, I’d run that line right after Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman when the team is loading up. Savoie is getting lost a little in these latest shuffles, Knoblauch is not a friend to youth really.
You can see Knoblauch’s problem based on numbers through the first 22 games. If we attempt to populate three lines (Knoblauch doesn’t use his fourth line anymore), we can begin with the impact players (McDavid, Draisaitl), the real contributors (Hyman, Roslovic), the guys you are getting some things from (Nuge, Podkolzin) and the people you need more from (Henrique, Frederic, Mangiapane). Nuge is hurt, so we’re talking eight men now, so let’s replace RNH with Savoie.
Frederic had a reasonable game by the numbers last night. He and Mangiapane delivered three high dangers, and Savoie posted two HDSC. It’s important to build on those things. I don’t think the Oilers win tonight, but there were some encouraging signs from the forwards.
A quick note on David Tomasek. I’d given up on his ever making an impact, but the goal he scored was impressive, and maybe he finds his way back into the rotation. My goodness it would be a lift.
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
- Nurse-Bouchard 18:16, 15-7 shots, 3-1 goals, 72 X; 8-2 HDSC
- Ekholm-Walman 18:07, 8-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 64 X; 8-6 HDSC
- Kulak-Emberson 7:36, 1-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 52 X; 1-0 HDSC
- Stuart Skinner: 14 stops in 19 shots, .737, stopped one of five HDSC
Darnell Nurse had a helluva game, Evan Bouchard is posting good crooked outscoring numbers (5-1 goals at five-on-five in the last three games), and the second pairing was unlucky to go 0-1 goals. Brett Kulak is all lost in the supermarket.
Tough to look past that Stuart Skinner line. I think we’ll see a new goalie soon. And yes, that’s a guess.
On the Lowdown tonight, we’ll talk about last night’s game, look forward to this evening and discuss what may come. We have reached a solemn point in the cycle of this team. Again. Man. It shouldn’t be this difficult. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
