The Oilers fan base is once again a house divided and that’s about right after last night’s game. For me, I’ve seen encouraging signs in two games now that indicate this year’s model is ready to roar. Remember that old Craig MacTavish line about losing games you should win at the end of a bad stretch? We are here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1) Actual 0-2-1
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
- Season Record: 9-9-5, 23 points in 23 games
This team showed character last night against a quality opponent. One of the things I was mildly surprised to see in the comments this morning from a few posters was an effort to diminish differing views. I have said this for decades on this blog, should say it again because who knows how long I’ll be here: If your views are so hot, express them using your best math and verbal weaponry, and let the reader decide. Chiding and deriding is beneath you, or should be. Not a brag, but some brilliant minds have posted in this comments section over 20+ years, some of them have gone on to work in the hockey industry. Not one of them found themselves unable to change minds when presenting ideas with strong verbal. Try that. You’ll be a better person and achieve real recognition.
Now, on to more interesting matters. On twitter last night I wrote “tough result for the Oilers but that was a strong game by a tired group. Like Nurse stepping up for the fight, Frederic goal, 97 backcheck like a demon. Next stop: Sunrise, sunrise, looks like morning in your eyes.” The feedback was mostly negative, as one expects. However, I do think there are signs that Edmonton is finding its way. That’s to be decided in the days to come. What is not in dispute today? The Oilers gave extreme effort. Need the same on Saturday.
OILERS FORWARDS
- Mangiapane-Draisaitl-Podkolzin: 9:30, 4-3 shots, 50 pct X; 1-0 HDSC
- Hyman-McDavid-Roslovic: 8:16, 3-9 shots, 54 pct X; 3-3 HDSC
- Frederic-Henrique-Savoie: 5:55, 3-4 shots, 44 pct X; 1-1 HDSC
- Frederic-Tomasek-Janmark: 2:52, 1-0 shots, 100 pct X; 0-0 HDSC
- Savoie-Henrique-Roslovic: 2:34, 0-1 shots, 0-2 HDSC
The high dangers were about even at five-on-five, the shots 27-17 for Tampa Bay. Zach Hyman led with three HD (five overall) chances at five-on-five. Trent Frederic scored the goal on a nice feed from Leon, and thank God and Greyhound Brett Kulak was on the ice for a plus for the first time in November. Matt Savoie had a couple of takeaways, I’m believing McDavid is shooting more lately but haven’t checked (I’m pressed for time haha).
- Ekholm-Bouchard 14:43, 5-11 shots, 36 X; 6-3 HDSC
- Kulak-Emberson 12:25, 5-3 shots, 1-0 goals, 67 X; 1-0 HDSC
- Nurse 13:48, 3-7 shots, 0-1 goals, 34 X; 1-1 HDSC
- Walman: 9:22, 2-7 shots, 27 X; 1-4 HDSC
- Regula: 8:34. 4-5 shots, 33 X; 1-3 HDSC
It was a weird game for Walman, who must have felt he had been dropped behind enemy lines in the big war. Regula also took a puck to the face, and somewhere Troy Stecher is living his best life. I don’t know who the Oilers might recall for defense, although there are some cool options in other areas.
That was Calvin Pickard’s best game in recent memory, despite the late goals. Stopped 33 of 35, .943 save percentage. The winning goal came after a 10-bell chance, still don’t know how it didn’t go in the net.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will join us and we’ll take a long look at the Bakersfield Condors and possible recalls. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
New for The Athletic: Which Edmonton Oilers AHL players could earn a call-up?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6823567/2025/11/21/edmonton-oilers-ahl-players-howard-hutson-ingram/
This season is a meat grinder. The condensed schedule and shortened break after playoffs is insanely taxing on these athletes. Add in new systems and new personnel and you have a perfect storm of impediments to peak performance.
I think that the team didn’t do well at managing the preseason. They should have assessed their players via training camp performance, fitness levels, and prior playing experiences and then put them on to their respective squads or rosters (i.e., AHL and NHL) right from the start. Avoid having a large, cumbersome roster in the NHL for preseason. Don’t use the preseason for player evaluation. Instead, use it to work on the systems so that execution becomes automatic.
Don’t worry if some roster decisions were poor or askew. That is, if someone you chose for the NHL line-up fails to perform well, you move them down after the fact and bring up someone who is doing better than expected in the AHL. Let the players sort it out with their play wherever they ended up at the start of the season. The main thing is to get your practice in before the season starts, because once the season starts there is no practice. The reason the team appears slow to make requisite changes is that there is no time to practice and learn. At best, they get to talk about what they’d like to do. Talking helps, but it pales in comparison to reps at intensity, and that is what practice gives you. And, learning in the game state (when you are playing opponents who don’t have your learning or best interests in mind) is hard. The game state is the most intense venue for performance and doesn’t forgive mistakes. Practice matters.
I think the team is figuring it out, but it takes time to make the behaviour second nature with practice, let along doing it without practice. I agree with our erstwhile host’s assessment that we are seeing better things as of late. The boys are figuring it out, but damn, it is so hard to be an Oiler fan!
The Oilers are 1-0 with Clattenburg in the line-up. I bet Frederic is glad to have him on the club as Federic is no Reeves and l’m sure he doesn’t want to be either. Clattenburg did his job judging by the lack of negative response from the anyone that doesn’t play like Yamamoto-Savoie gang is a knuckle dragger.
Nice forecheck by 25 as a forward, great play by 2 and good finish
Connor “ Ogie Ogilthorpe” Clattenburg
Nah more like Curt Brackenbery (sp) didn’t win every fight but came hard on every shift.
Summarizing!
Lafreniere picked up his 16th goal and added an assist.
Barnett procured a helper.
Soup was not to be had by Park, Berry and Lewandowski.
If Clattenburg hits the ice, he’ll be the 14th player from his Draft Class to have received playing time in the NHL. Only Macklin Celebrini has played more than 40 games, with 91.
11 of these players are 1st rounders and 1 player is a 2nd rounder.
The other player, Nikita Prishchepov, was a 7th rounder who played 10 games last season for Colorado (he has been injured, and was just medically cleared to play AHL games yesterday). He is also 16 months older than Clattenburg.
Condors survive a long defensive zone shift with a stick broken, get a clear and a change but a stretch pass and a drive through the neutral zone leads to a breakaway and a 3-0 Ontario lead!
Awful first period for the Condors – 3 minor penalties (killed all of them) but Ingram leaked two poor goals at 5 on 5 (one big save). All but no scoring chances for.
2-0 at the break.
A floater from the point that Ingram boots off his glove, a scramble and a goal.
2-0.
Tough start for Ingram – 2 bad goals early.
Followed up with a good save on an Akil Thomas breakaway.
Ingram leaks a really ugly goal early – a shot from the bottom of the circles that just beats him far side – yuck.
CC isn’t 15, he’s 20, and he’s had plenty of fights from the time he was 15 to learn how to handle himself in uncertain situations, I’m sure. So let’s cheer for the kid, and hope this is the beginning of a very long career with the Oil.
Put another way…
Conner Clattenburg
In sunrise they’ll be screaming
Clear the tracks, here comes Clatt!
(I took a liberty, iamhaiku, do something about it.)
My only concern is he’s a mid size, gives up a lot of size to the heavyweights. He’s a gamer for sure but it’s a different level
Fair enough but he doesn’t have to take on heavyweights to get the boys going. And if he were to spark, say, just a 5% improvement in the physical play with this team, I think you get a lot more efforts like the game in Tampa.
Like who?
Look at Florida’s roster.
It comes down to AJ Greer.
Something got into the Buffalo Sabres tonight as they pasted Chicago 9-3.
With the win the Sabres hit 20 points which is incredibly only 4 points out of second place in the Atlantic division and 5 out of the division lead.
With the win Buffalo has a win percentage of .476 the only team in the EC below .500.
Weird and wild.
Ingram starts tonight!
Clattenberg call up is fascinating. This gives a clear indication of what management sees in regard to what is missing on the roster.
Also telegraphs their disappointment in Frederic.
Sometimes it only takes one dog to drag you into the fight.
You could see it a million miles away. I can hear the phone call 3 weeks ago from Bowman to Keith. Get that kid (Clattenburg )up too speed with some top 6 minutes as we need this kid ASAP. The best part of Clattenburg is his wheels and the fact he’s not a inbred heavyweight. He can nail Marchand-Bennet-Ekbald from the top to the bottom no one is safe on the Panthers. This kid and his family have to be so proud of their Son. This kid has leadership qualities the whole team must be excited to see this 5th rounder get a opportunity so fast.
He played one game in the top 6 and was on the 4th line both games last weekend.
You called it, for sure, but the process above it not accurate.
From what you’ve seen, can Clattenburg keep up to the NHL pace? How’s his skating?
This is the magic question. Can’t hit what you can’t catch – and worse is skating out of position to make a big hit and giving up grade A chances the other way.
Curlock says it’s a strength, creativity is, puck skills aren’t
Yes, his straight line speed is fine and he can keep up that way but, in my opinion, he can’t play at the pace of the NHL – he struggles to play at the pace of the game at the AHL level.
If you look at his highlights, you’ll see most of his hits are on the d-man a second after the puck is already going the other way, for example – that won’t play at the NHL level.
Thanks
I would have to say that phone call happened. If Clattenburg can stay healthy he’ll be around the league for a decade plus. He has the wheels to keep up I can’t wait till he scores his 1st even with his limited minutes he’ll pop one faster than Savoie or Philp. Also wait till Roslovic has 20 by the Olympic selections. USA doesn’t pick like us they seem to go with the hot hands.
I would love for Clattenburg to pot one.
He can definitely skate but he can’t play at the pace necessary (he can’t really at the AHL level yet) – it tough to see Knob give him more than a couple of shifts.
Roslovic has about zero chance to make the Olympic team. For one, management wouldn’t contemplate him – Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield are bubble players, let’s be real here.
Have you heard of him being added to their long list (like Schaeffer has been)? Nope which, unless he’s added right away and starts going through he protocols for eligibility, he will not be eligible.
You sure don’t like long shots all it takes is a few injuries a certain position and a continuous surge by Rosolvic. All I know he’s has a better chance than Skinner does and I thought I remember you tooting his horn in the Summer.
Considering Roslovic is not in the Olympic Drug Protocol, well, this is factually incorrect.
I have no idea what that means?
Oilers have placed Philp on LTIR and called up …….. Connor Clattenburg!.
I am shocked and will admit that I was wrong when I said there was zero chance he gets called up any time soon – obviously I was wrong.
I fear they are putting this kid in a position where he is going to get hurt trying to play a game he is not ready for in this league.
I’ll be excited to watch him play but I also have watched most of his shifts in the American Hockey League and agree with his AHL coach that he “needs to learn to play hockey” – he has earned his bad goal share in the AHL.
I get they want a fourth line type player but, for me, this is a slap in the face of Jarventie and Hutson both of who have earned a call-up (in particular the former).
I wonder if this is a bit about a reward for his early season effort but mostly opponent specific given the Panthers style of play.
I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow is his only game then returns to Bako right after if Nuge returns vs Dallas as expected.
They’ll be chanting his name in Edmonton by Christmas.
He’s received the call whether you like it or not. I for one am happy for the kid. Good for Connor he’s a smart kid he knows exactly what he needs to bring to the table it’s called turbulence. I don’t think it’s going to take him long to register his 1st Goal
have him on a line with Frederic and let the fun begin.
Reja, I wonder if you meant to say Truculence but turbulence came out instead.
I like turbulence as a better description.
Yes, good for him and I will cheer like hell for him and hope he can make a positive impact.
I’m just providing information of what I’ve seen watching him nighltly in the AHL.
He 100% knows his role and will 100% do it – unfortunately, doing it in the AHL led to (a) him out of position and his team defending, (b) him in the penalty box and (c) goals against.
Me saying he struggles to take a pass and make the next play with any consistency at the AHL level isn’t bashing the kid its providing information on what I’ve seen.
I can’t see him getting more than a shift a period, if that.
I just think they are setting the kid up to fail given he’s still learning to make plays at the AHL level.
I’m sure its a one-game thing and I’m happy as hell for him.
He could be a fan favourite in Edmonton one day – if he commits to working on hockey skill and structure.
Your information sounds a little bias not every player is 5’ 6” and as skilled as Yamamoto. He’s not being called up to be a low event do nothing player. I have eyeballs so does bowman this team needs a spark you might think a big body check is outdated and barbaric but that is exactly what this team needs. Leon and Connor have been taking abuse all year Clattenburg may keep a rat like Marchand or Bennett from acting up.
Connor Clattenburg is not going to deter anyone from doing anything to McDavid and I am confident that Marchand and Bennett would salivate having Clattenburg play against them.
In time, if the work is put in (and I think it will be), Clllatengburg may have that type of game but he’s not able to play hockey at the AHL level – the coach will not play a kid running around out of position trying to get big bangs in and that’s all this 20 year old would be blessed to do at this stage. Though to imagine him getting more than a shift or two.
With you on this one OP, calling this kid up is puzzling. Sure he’s full of piss & vinegar but I don’t want to see him get lambasted or embarrassed for the sake of them needing a spark.
Yiiikes!
Although, will KK give him much more than 3 minutes of ice time?
Chances are he’s chucking knuckles with A.J. Greer within 10 seconds of his first shift.
Also Clattenburg really needs to learn how to play pro hockey in Fort Wayne. Keeping him in Bakersfield and calling him up is doing him a disservice over the long run.
I am cheering like hell for him, but he is not ready for NHL or even AHL hockey.
If I were his family and his Agent, I would be ecstatic for him, but furious with Bowman.
It looks like he’s getting called up for one reason…, and that is energy.
I do t think he’s expected to tackle any big fighters, but sounds like he won’t listen to that anyway.
There are just as many tough players in the AHL so he’s no more likely to get hurt in the NHL.
On wing he’ll likely avoid a lot of trouble and get a few lessons. Part of those lessons might be to go learn better hockey, it’s dam fast here. If he is over his head then they will limit his shifts.
But maybe the buttery soft Oilers might have a hard nut in the mix for a couple games.
“sounds like he won’t listen to that anyway”
Something to look forward to?
I suppose I could be happy: I love the PK, and he seems to generate lots of PK practice for his teams.
Let’s sign a forward to a ELC then stick him in the ECHL. I dare anyone to name the last non goalie who was just signed to a ELC get thrown into the 8th best league in the world.
The Oilers have three skaters on NHL ELCs in the ECHL.
Those are Holland guys not Bowman’s. What G.M signs a player to a ELC then buries him in the ELC the same year?
LOL – you dared, I provided three current examples from one team – your premise on players signing NHL ELCs never getting assigned to the AHL is completely wrong.
As you do, you don’t just move the goalposts when proven wrong, you transfer them to an entire different hemisphere.
Stefan, Grubbe and Stonehouse.
This information is easy enough to find.
The issue is he’s got to be playable to provide that energy and he’s playable on a 4th line level in the AHL……
I’m completely shocked; Clattenburg hits and is young, two things we know KK doesn’t care for.
Setting the over/under at 2:30 ice time.
2:30 is about right I would think.
Jarventie needs time bcs he has knee problems, Hutson is a great A player but he’s small. Other teams have done this as well with the panthers like Tampa
Jarventie is taking a regular shift every game in the AHL right now. Why would his his former knee issues stop him from playing a game in the NHL? Is the NHL game harder on the knees than the AHL game?
Hutson is 23 years old, turning 24 and, for the last few weeks is averaging close to 3 points a game in the AHL. The Oilers knew his size when they signed him, he’s doing everything possible to earn a call-up and, while you discriminate against small players, I don’t think the Oilers signed him thinking they’d never give him a shot because of his size.
It looks to me like a FLA-oriented tactic, w no “hockey sense” to it, but lots of gladiatorial sense. So no shade on prospects who already know how to ”play hockey.”
Rishaug on Stauffer made an interesting point. He’s concerned that this kid will end up fighting battles veteran Oilers haven’t stepped up to fight.
Maybe that’s the tactic, shame the truculent (and “turbulent”) ones who haven’t yet activated their truculence or turbulence? Ugh. In any case, the kid is a sacrificial offering to the malevolent hockey gods of the Florida swamp. This is not about hockey.
Quite likely the Panthers will skate away from the chaos with a smirk.
I hope that they do. It’s about the panthers asshaterry
If that’s how you spell it
This is likely the case.
Can’t agree with your conclusion. Coach/GM are looking for a specific skill. Hutson and Jarventie aren’t applying for the same job as Clattenburg.
Exactly.
They should be given this team struggles to score goals still.
Clattenburg would be great – if he could play at the pace of the NHL level (which, given he struggles to play at the pace of the AHL level, seems unlikely).
Clattenburg has a chance to develop the ability to play at the NHL level – if they develop him properly which is not bringing him up 2 years too early.
As per Oilers official twitter just now:
Philp to LTIR. Clattenburg (!!) called up.
If he does get into a game I expect every 2nd post on this forum to be negative as he’s not everyones cup of tea. He obviously brings a certain skill set we are sorely missing. If you want to hack and whack our best players Connor will take a pound of flesh from any opposition player he’s not fussy. The bullying of our players needs to Stop and I know Frederic needs a partner to lean on
Yeah I’m choosing to just be psyched for the kid and if nothing else he has a very clear role, an entertaining one at that, and understands it perfectly.
The kid was a 5th round pick and he’s making the show at 20. A couple of negative Nancy’s aren’t going to ruin my joy for this long shot making it. It’s almost like there’s sour grapes that this smart dedicated young lad is getting called up.
There were points during last night’s game where I felt like I was watching Oilers’ hockey again, like the version where they are passionate and in control. That was nice, especially to have them take the lead right off the bat and hold it for quite a while. I’ll take that as a positive and hope to see more of it. I was happy to see Nurse take on Douglas, because it showed some energy and he was doing that to defend a teammate. I saw the Oilers protecting their goalie when liberties were being taken around the net. I am very happy Picks had such a solid game, because he and the team really needed that. I thought they did a much better job being more predictable for their goalie, and when they weren’t, he made some amazing saves.
As much as we want them to, or feel they are capable of doing, I don’t think it will turn around on a dime. In the end, they did not get the win, and we need those to turn into regulation wins more often. They know this. So now the focus has to be to build on the positives, increase the amount of time they are doing that in order to become more consistent during games, and of course, limit the negatives.
There are only 3 games in the remaining 9 days of November. This allows for some practice time and some rest, which has been extremely limited this month. The timing of that practice time is good because once the calendar flips, it’s 15 games in 31 days of December. Go Oilers.
I would go with Pickard against the Panthers as we all know they have Skinner figured out. Pickard is playing for his livelihood so is Skinner who fundamentally is getting worse every season since his rookie season. He is what he is he is a inconsistent netminder that needs 99 of 100 saves just to get his Save Percentage in the top 30. All it takes is a 6 game winning streak and all is forgotten about this unispiring first 1/4 of the seasons?
Best game I’ve seen them play since…June? Passes on tape vs. in feet, and until they ran out of gas in the 3rd forechecked hard and were first to pucks the first 30-40mins.
From the “we don’t know what we don’t know” tree, while I’ve been railing about 97 & 29’s ice time perhaps it is part of their plan. The coaches will have a 110 game plan. Are McDavid & Drai killing penalties and skating extra so they are in peak shape and can pk for what will be their first Olympics? Maybe – we don’t know.
Maybe that’s the plan, from what I understand players go in the opposite direction in season. They lose weight and muscle, which is why Pronger talked MacT into letting the vets skip practice and go to the gym in ’06
Given the Olympics, playing them less seems like a better path, hoping they will have enough left after for playoffs. Makes me think the underdogs might have a bit of an advantage if they didn’t have players go, more energy
Mess said something to the effect of that when he switched teams, he played less.
Then the expectation in the playoffs was for him to play 5-6 more minutes per night and he couldnt do it. Not effectively by his admitted standard.
97 said after the Stars series he had a tonne of extra energy, wasnt tired.
Maybe it’s a ‘start as you mean to go’ plan. I don’t agree with it, I think attrition hits eventually but I really dont believe this regime is running them into the ground chasing games. They dont hit much, so less wear and tear? Then its just an endurance exercise.
I guess we’ll have to wait until they actually get a good lead late and see if they dial back the minutes.
Hmm. Perhaps I’m conflating things in how they play at times with being over tired. Connor and Leon seem to play with less jump when playing a lot, and I think Connor is again at the top of the forwards in the league in TOI
Maybe it’s that they change when getting more shifts, less urgency or pace. Or it’s a team thing as in when they don’t play connected that affects how they look
One cannot compare the average fitness levels of players in the eighties to the average fitness levels of players forty years later. One cannot compare the depth of teams in the eighties with the depth of teams forty years later. One cannot compare the work rate of players in the eighties compared to the work rate of players forty years later.
Players today are much closer to peak fitness potential today than 40 years ago.
The human being hasnt got much faster in the 100 yard dash for quite some time. The difference is mostly technology. Cocaine is a helluva drug too. Players aren’t powered up the way they used to be (though they definitely still are).
Baseball players put a weight on their bat so when they swing, it feels easier. Maybe when the playoffs roll around you tighten the minutes and get the same effect.
I don’t think it’s completely without merit. If we asked Connor to play 25 minutes or Philp to play 25, who do you think gets tired first?
Doesn’t that kind of support what he said?
World Track and Field Championship: Average time of the men in the final race.
World Track and Field Championships and Olympics, average 100m time of the participants
Yeah thanks for proving my point man.
Seems like a lot to me.
Cool graphic… Usain Bolt was the Wayne Gretzky of the 100m dash
Bigger, faster, stronger, younger.
Full Disclosure- I haven’t been able to watch the past two games.. sounds like some posters and coach KK feel the team is more engaged and may be turning a corner. I hope that’s the case.
I watched the last 5 minutes yesterday then proceeded to watch what they showed of the LA SJ game. I was struck by the relative speed and intensity of both teams and forecheck of LA, namely two former Oilers in Foegle and Perry- both were on to try to tie the game in the final minutes. Over the past two off seasons Oilers management has prioritised skill over other attributes/intangibles.
I wonder if the current roster version can ramp it up enough for the regular season much less playoffs level? Can Mangiapane regain his pesky nature? Can someone other than our beloved Hyman go to the dirty areas with consistency?
Even squinting I just don’t see the players to forecheck, backcheck, hit and battle net front, like I have in years past.
Frustrated with pressure on McDavid and Drai, drive the damn net- force the defensive team to go with you there, creating traffic for the opposing goalie and space elsewhere for McDrai to work their magic.
Our lack of offense is as much of an issue as our defensive game.
Getting to the net creates chaos. Good/skilled teams can use the chaos to their advantage. It would be wonderful to see more net crashing and battling in front. The Oilers’ goals in the Washington game were all aided by net front play (screens, distractions, drawing defenders, etc). So many goals against the Oilers are because of net front play.
I like analytics and have for a long time but seems like the Oilers might gave gone a bit too far in prioritizing stats over locker room fit, intangibles etc. reminds me of the Dubas GMing. They’ve lost some great personalities/ emotional leadership in Brown, Perry, Kane (some disagree but he seems like a good teammate to me). And then even Foegele and McLeod to go back further.
its tough to fit guys under the cap so I understand why it happened but that Mangiapane money would have been better spent on retaining Brown/Perry. But also this team has bigger problems than losing one or two players the whole team is playing bad.
Also, they should try and get Sam Carrick back from NYR. That’s a 4th liner with a purpose.
Something to remember is performance in the finals, which they haven’t been able to win
GF% 23/24
Brown 40%
Perry 40%
Kane 0-3
Foegele 50%
McLeod 25%
Holloway 62.5%
Henrique 80%
Holloway was a flubb, they kept Henrique. Foegele maybe was a mistake, but he’s a perimeter player, on the soft side and that’s been a problem for the team. Mangiapane hasn’t played well but career wise has been a pest and scored well enough top 6
In 22/23 playoffs GF%
Foegele 37.5%
McLeod 44%
Yeah that’s fair but I don’t love looking at just one series and judging guys based on that. That’s how Pete decided to trade Eberle and Bowman McLeod lol (which I actually think could still be a good trade and made sense capwise). McDavid was 33% GF in 2025 finals, Drai 35%.
I guess part of it is the reality of being a contender is that worse teams will pay your guys more and it’s tough to keep them. And in Brown’s case he probably sees a contender in NJ and being closer to home.
Yes you have to be careful but it was two playoffs
Step 1: Claim Mason Geertsen off waivers.
Step 2: Dress him for Saturday night’s game.
Step 3: Have him plow his meathook directly into Aaron Ekblad’s nose.
Step 4: Rinse and repeat on Bennett, Greer, Gadjovich, Mikkola, Marchand, etc.
Step 5: Buy him a drink and shake his hand.
Josh Brown has been the Condors’ best d-man and it hasn’t been close. He’s been out injured for the last little bit – intel was about a week which could have him back this weekend.
The only other potential option is Cam Dineen given he’s been up before and did alright. I will say that Dineen had a HORRID start to the season for 2-3 weeks. The Dineen/raw-rookie Leppanen pair was the biggest tire fire I’ve seen. Dineen has recovered back to his normal self that last little while.
Id love to see Josh Brown up. If he has been playing the game well he should be rewarded, and also remind the present “NHL” d men about defending the net. Good story here.
If the answer is calling up Josh Brown, then this team is truly F*^ked. He is not an NHL defenseman
This team is already F*^ked. Have you been watching at all? They don’t need a fancy skating poser; they need someone, anyone, to guard the front of the net like their life depended on it. The team has no other choices… and he has been the best dman in the Bake
Whats the competition quality lately?
They look like they’re scoring alot more than last year (PP is not cheeks) but are they actually deeper and better and last years team was Savoie and crickets or are they just making hay against weaker comp?
They have alot of new faces so trying to temper expectations but Bob and Bruce seem to think there’s 5-6 legitimate prospects down there
They are quite deep – the likes of Clattenburg and Copponi on the 4th line, Hamblin at 3C.
I do think each of the following are “real prospects”:
Howard
Jarventie
Hutson
Samanski
Marjala
Akey
Leppanen
Jarventie can play in the NHL right now, hopefully, when called up, they use him properly.
Hutson turns 24 in a bit so we need to take his stats with a grain of salt – he’s lighting up the AHL the last 5-6 games but, at 23, he should be if he’s a real propsect.
LOVE Samanski – he’s got legit 3C potential.
I’ve got to think 1 or 2 will “make it” is more than a tweeter but who knows – none are 20 years olds, they are all a bit advanced age wise or European pro experience wise.
I agree with the tweet and I’m enticed by the effort, commitment, push-back, etc. from the team – they are in the thick of maybe the toughest extended portion of a schedule in a decade – its not an excuse but it also IS a factor. Its on them to take advantage of practice time and home games and rest coming up but they are set up for a run – its on them.
I 100% agree that McDavid was excellent 2-ways last night……. until he wasn’t – the tying goal was on his defence mainly. Exhaustion likely a big factor there and we can talk about if that’s on the schedule or the coach……
The schedule exasperated by the coach.
To me losing a one on one play is on the player when they are a vet
This has been a brutal road trip. This team needs some nights in their own beds and some practice time to work out the bugs in their systems. We owe it to them to give them some slack for the next couple of weeks to see what some home cooking will do for their game. .
I actually thought it was going to be worse. With some luck they could have beat Washington and Tampa and it would have been a good trip.
I was frustrated after last nights game because I still see the same mistakes happening. I believe this team does have the talent once we get back our injured players. The problem I have is i still see the same issues with our systems. I put the onus on the coaching staff for this. It was a better effort last night but we were fortunate not to be down 2-3 goals without Pickards outstanding play. Hopefully these last two games was a turning point that so many posters on this blog believe it was. I hope they are right.
This team finishes the toughest road trip in a decade on Saturday and, while they have not played great for most it it, with a win, they come out of it at .500.
While they will still be in the middle of 11 straight games in different arenas, after tomorrow they will have played 16 road games (with a 5 and a 7 game eastern road trip) and 8 at home. They have a bunch of days off coming up to rest and actually practice.
the first quarter of the season has been shit but this team is about through the toughest muck of the season and played their lost engaged and snarl full game of the year.
It’s on the players but they are set up schedule wise shortly to put together some good runs – these players CAN do it.
It’s interesting that given all the recent talk about how tough the schedule has been for the Oilers, they aren’t near the top for easiest strength of schedule remaining.
The schedule has been brutal for travel but not necessarily quality of comp.
I presume that the quality of comp will be elevated in the 2nd half but they will often have the rest/travel/home ice advantage like most teams have had on them so far this year.
Great choice for a song quote. It was a favorite of someone special to me at the time it came out. Norah Jones is one of the all time best vocalists.
I hope you’re right. It would be nice to have another run.
My personal opinion on the team through the last five years: Management has had bad cap management, which has been detrimental to the team, especially in goal. Goal-tending cost us every time the Oilers went to the finals, and even in ’06.
I don’t expect much from this team this year because, in my heart, I believe they are burnt out. I’m going to be 40 by 2027, and that’s when I believe Edmonton wins the Cup. Last year, everything hinged on McDavid’s deal.
And if it doesn’t happen, my predicted team McDavid leaves for is Colorado. Just wanted to put it in writing and see what happens. Have great day all. Much love.
It may be a coincidence but, then again, it may not.
But Connor McDavid and Auston Matthew’s contracts expire at the same time.
I could see the Leafs signing McDavid and Matthews signing somewhere like LA.
Doubt it, the Leafs cupboards are even more barren than the Oilers.
It’s impossible to predict what the cupboards will look like in 2028-29 as both rosters will be depleted.
What we do know is both teams will have 3 elderly defensemen and that both have very weak prospects pools.
The Leafs have a reputation for signing aging out stars and Matthews strikes me as someone who would like the glitter of LA.
Exactly why I doubt Connor goes to the Leafs. If he comes up cupless in Edmonton I doubt he’s going to go to a worse situation in Toronto. Maybe Montreal or Ottawa.
My point was that we have no idea that the situation will be worse or better.
So many transactions and hundreds of millions in cap space between now and then.
I get it. It’s only two more seasons. I can’t imagine Toronto looks more enticing then. My bet is less. You never know.
Although the kings quite likely stand a good chance of feeling like a player is wandering in a desert:
It diesn’t seem a likely destination if a guy wants to sign his last big deal with term.somewhere with sustainable cup aspirations.
Yes maybe matthews values the comforts and anonymity if your LAK or NYR style variety he may go there.
If he wants to go full mercenary vegas is the closest thing to robotic part replacing that seems to have that kimd of appeal as lomg as they stay competetive.
In my brain i honestly woukdn’t be surprised if he ended up in Utah if that team starts appearing as a real contender in next couple years.
Im short: pretty sure LA is a lot more than a matthews away from serious contender when his contract is up. Their rebuilds worth of draft picks don’t exactly appear to have been spent in a way they have foundation for sustainable threat.
As I mentioned…it’s difficult to look that far ahead but LA has some pluses.
They have a full compliment of draft picks (9 in 2026) as well as massive cap savings as the legacy Kopitar and Doughty era comes to an end.
Much will depend on what Holland does in the interim but LA is always a top free agent destination.
But it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in Vegas or Utah either.
they will win the Cup in 2027. Thank you for the heads up
The concept behind Power Wins is to show team strength, to determine which teams are
really taking care of business, and which teams might not be as strong as their record
seems to currently indicate.
It shows games that were dominated, or that a team wasn’t in a game. It’s an attempt
to figure out who the true contenders might be, another tool to go along with the many
others: Record against top teams, Goal Diff, Goal Shares, Goal Totals, Shot Shares,
5v5 play, Special Teams, SV%, etc.
Power Wins are by 2 goals or more minus Empty Net goals. Clear Losses are the reverse.
Games won or lost to Playoff Teams (POT) are compiled from each team’s game 6
forward, based on standings the day before the games.
Leads Lost Or Comebacks are a team being up or down by the first 2 goals of a game (2-0, 0-2). Goal totals don’t count Shoot Out Goals but do include Overtime Goals per the NHL.
I have a lot of numbers I’ll break it out in a few posts as I have time. In order of
current standings by division of the teams I follow, it’s too much to do the whole
league manually. I chose the teams based on who seemed like a strong team, and who I
thought might sustain through the season, a few new ones this year.
I have yet to create a stat for Swedish Poster’s (hi Swedish long time no see)
“Fingerspitzengefühl”, which roughly means in German ‘finger tip feeling, an intuitive
knack for navigating delicate situations with tact and sensitivity’, it would be a
coaching stat. Kidding.
I try to be as careful as possible getting the data and check it over at times, please
forgive any errors:
Power Wins, Power Win Ratio to Wins, Clear Losses, Win POT, Loss POT, POT Games,
Leads Lost, Comebacks, Extra Time Games:
Anaheim 5 / 23.8% / 4 / 7 / 1 / 8 / 0 / 2 / 5
Vegas 5 / 25% / 2 / 3 / 2 / 5 / 1 / 1 / 7
LA 3 / 14.3% / 3 / 6 / 3 / 9 / 1 / 1 / 9
Oilers 1 / 4.3% / 3 / 4 / 5 / 9 / 5 / 1 / 10
Colorado 9 / 45% / 0 / 5 / 4 / 9 / 0 / 0 / 6
Dallas 3 / 14.3% / 2 / 8 / 2 / 10 / 2 / 4 / 6
Winnipeg 6 / 31.6% / 2 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 0 / 0 / 2
Minnesota 4 / 19% / 5 / 3 / 5 / 0 / 0 / 8
Power Wins, Power Win Ratio to Wins, Clear Losses, Win POT, Loss POT, POT Games,
Leads Lost, Comebacks, Extra Time Games:
Carolina 6 / 30% / 3 / 2 / 2 / 4 / 1 / 0 / 6
New Jersey 5 / 25% / 5 / 6 / 1 / 7 / 0 / 1 / 6
Pittsburgh 6 / 31.6% / 2 / 3 / 2 / 5 / 2 / 1 / 4
Washington 7 / 33.3% / 2 / 4 / 4 / 8 / 1 / 0 / 3
Tampa 3 / 15% / 3 / 6 / 2 / 8 / 2 / 0 / 5
Ottawa 3 / 15% / 3 / 6 / 5 / 11 / 2 / 1 / 7
Florida 5 / 25% / 4 / 5 / 4/ 9 / 0 / 1 / 2
Montreal 2 / 10% / 3 / 3 / 4 / 7 / 1 / 0 / 8
Toronto 3 / 14.3% / 4 / 4 / 6 / 10 / 2 / 1 / 6
I mentioned the other day that despite that these numbers were ugly for the Oilers, there was a wrinkle. They are struggling as we know, have more than double the Leads Lost than all of the others, and 10 Ext Time games, also the most (won half).
Still despite having so much trouble scoring, even with a hot PP, the only have 3 Clear Losses. They have had a tough schedule (not the only team) but are battling and right in the middle range for Clear Losses, not out of many games.
That is encouraging, and if they can get healthier and keep playing a more organized and assertive game as the last couple have been, I expect we will see better results soon. Please Oilers, heads up on the ice and stop taking so much abuse
The Avs are ridiculous. 45% Power Wins I expect is not something that has happened much before. The encouraging thing here (I want not good things for them :)) is that they are probably peaking way too early, and are enticing the President’s Curse like the Bruins did. They also are only 5/4 against teams in playoff position, likely meaning they are pounding lesser teams, like I always comment the Oilers should be able to do.
Despite the banal start, the Oilers are 4/5 against playoff teams, a similar result to the hottest team. Things are not quite as bad as it feels and looks. Next up at some point some goals and probably other wins data.
You may find this illuminating as part of your analysis.
The remaining strength of schedule contradicts your thoughts on Colorado.
They actually have the third easiest remaining schedule with Anaheim the easiest of all and San Jose, Los Angeles and Vegas also coming up roses.
The Oilers are about middle of the pack.
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/remaining_schedule_strength
I’m not sure it contradicts them. I think Colorado will probably win the reg season, but that usually doesn’t work out for winning a Cup. To me it’s about sustaining intensity, and if too much went into winning in the reg season, teams seem to not have enough left for the increased intensity of playoffs – peaking too early. Like Boston after their historic season
Or they break the curse and win it all. Who knows, but history isn’t on their side with that
I’ve watched pretty much all their games.
They are winning almost effortlessly leading the league with 70 goals at even strength while having a power play that inexplicably, given the available talent, is running at only 16.7%, 17th in the league.
If the PP ever gets cashing…hang on to your hat.
That could be the case. It’s a long season though, even for the top teams getting and keeping everything rolling at the same time can be hard to do. Either way if they are healthy they will probably be a tough out, especially for the Oilers, who have yet to exorcise losing a series to them, handily
Very interesting. Thanks.
There are many things going on “under the hood,” as it were, that aren’t visible to us. The “near wins” (like last night) may tell us more than the Power Wins. In the end, the only thing that really matters is making the playoffs, and having the depth of character to win four series’ in the postseason. All of this regular season stuff is practice for that.
Yes the near wins right now are saying more, but I think overall a team that beats other teams handily more often is a stronger team. The context there is who are they beating? Which is why I collect if the opponent is currently a playoff team or not for each game. Pounding weak teams and losing to strong teams won’t cut the mustard at the end of the day
I agree. Thanks for your work.
Welcome
In the Pacific Power Wins correlate with the standings, but not the others. I will post these quarterly, and my hunch is the further we go the more it correlates in the other divisions
When I post the goal data, it gives more context and you can see the teams that still have some wobble in their game even with a lot of PWs. There is also some context with Goal Diff and high GF – if a team is also giving up a lot of GA, to me it indicates a skilled offensive team that is more high event, which is not playoff friendly for long usually
First, an apology. As some of you pointed out last night, my name-calling of those who see the glass half empty (or even, completely empty) is not in keeping with the spirit of this forum. You’re right. Please accept my apology.
Second, after watching this team wander in the wilderness for 20 games, I am happy to see that they may be finding their way to who they are. I enjoyed last night’s game. I wonder what happens with the Panthers on Saturday?
I may be mistaken but aren’t you a Habs first fan? I would say its easier for a person to not be as emotionally invested in a 2nd-3rd-4th favourite team when that team is in fear of not making the playoffs especially as a top 6 Stanley Cup favourite.
I was a Habs-first fan in the 1970s. After 1979 I didn’t watch hockey for 40+ years. Then I got drawn into Oilers fandom via seeing McDavid highlight reels, and then Draisaitl in the 2023 playoffs.
I am a Canada-first, fair-weather fan. I like to root for exciting teams from Canada. I like this Oilers team. And, as of sometime last season, I’m watching the Habs again. They’re fun, too. But right now I’m an Oilers-first fan. Maybe after the Oilers win two Cups I’ll consider the bleu blanc et rouge as my #1 fave again.
That explains your perspective. A lot of us here have been watching the Oilers avidly for 40 years. I just assume anyone else that has followed the Oilers for this long would have some baked in pessimism about team management. It’s been a grind!
We had the greatest team in history the 60’s-70’ early 80’s Bruins-Flyers had excellent teams The Islanders-Habs-CCCP all stars were so damn good but still a notch below the 80’s Oilers who could turn it on-off as the greatest team in the history of the sport. We had and still have a talented group but they’re playing chicken-shit Hockey. Dress the best players bring up Howard and let him rip in the top 6 depending on the team we’re playing. Our expectations are different in Edmonton over say Flames-Canucks who believe trying hard is all that matters whereas Winning Playoff series is all that matters in Edmonton. The Oilers who could of easily of had a franchise 10 Cups but for various reasons were denied. As a fan base we are the most demanding yet loyal in the entire league.
Yes I totally get the loyalty for your original team as a youngster. You probably have a Dryden-Lafleur-Béliveau. Sweater in the closet. I myself was fortunate to go to a ton of Oiler WHA games getting a Cheevers autograph was a real hi-light for me. Of all the Canadian teams the Habs are the most exciting and could easily see them as a upcoming firehouse that will win a Cup or two.
I’m dreading an Oilers v Habs SCF in the not too distant future
Darren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
Breaking: The Winnipeg Jets are shutting down Connor Hellebuyck in order for him undergo a minor Arthroscopic knee procedure. It is anticipated Hellebuyck will be out 4 to 6 weeks.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
League sources say Winnipeg Jets have given 2022 first round pick Brad Lambert’s representation permission to find a trade partner.
Lambert, 21, has one goal in four games for the Jets in limited minutes this season.
Finnish and Swedish names that sound so North American always get me.
Douglas Murray playing for team Sweden was just baffling.
RHC over 6 feet who gets points so far at each level that isn’t the NHL.
What’s wrong with him? Or are the Jets being obstinate?
Brad Lambert’s parents are Ross Lambert and a Finnish mother. His father, Ross, is a former hockey player from Canada, and his mother is from Finland, making Brad a dual citizen who was born and raised in Finland.
At one point he was being projected as a very high 1st round pick but dropped to 30th based reportedly on poor habits.
I would expect he will get a second opinion somewhere because, as you say, a right shot centre is a valuable commodity.
Perhaps Colorado or Carolina can unlock him.
Sakic and Co. specialize in that kind of project as does Tulsky.
All the tools not the drive was the scouting report. Reminds me of Mantha in that sense, not the history if production coming out of junior tho. I think Winnipeg has handled him appropriately given his production. He regressed hard last year. He’s looking for a change of scenery which is fine.
I think he’d be best sticking it out but I get the frustration.
I think he would be a great addition – depending on cost to acquire
Extreme effort? That should be the baseline.
And with more goals.
Can’t complain about that effort. If they weren’t finishing so poorly might have won that one. So, we hit 20 games broadly, I had some time, so I will dump the Power Wins numbers and some other things for those interested in another post
Prospectaurus!
A quintet of NAmateurs is slated this day.
The Michiganders continue to hold down #2 in Div-1. Park and Barnett are still finding their way as freshmen though.
Berry’s next goal will double his season’s output.
And the Dubstars will continue Dubstarring.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 5 p.m.
St. Thomas (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 6 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 8 p.m.
All times, at all times, are West Baptiste time.
How clear cut was that offside not offside? I could not find a clip that New York would see to make that ruling.
It was the Makar puck touch rule. Would’ve lost the challenge.
So it seems. What I want to know if it was deliberately played like that or just luck?
This is a black and white rule and not up to any interpretations.
If the puck crosses the line not touching the stick, the off side player has an opportunity to touch up. The same as any delayed offside.
It doesn’t matter the time that the puck wasn’t touching the stick or whether it was intentional or luck as long as the offside player touches up before the puck is touched again. Again there is no gray area the way the rule is written.
The sooner people learn what the rules are the quicker you can move on and not question it every time it happens.
I had the same reaction when Makar did it, but the rules clearly state its not off side.
Yes, smarten up you people. Do you think he knew that if he kept control of the puck, he would be offside so deliberately pushed it ahead and just followed it until it was onside, ie a brilliant play, or just luck?
Like I said it doesn’t matter if its luck or skill. Think about how difficult it would be for a referee to decide that?
Holy crap. 50 years of learning the rules then this BS pops up.
Clear as mud, but thanks.
Its the same offside rule that has existed since I started watching hockey 35 years ago. Its just being implemented more accurately.
Again this is just like any delayed off side except it happens in a much smaller space and in much shorter time.
People can’t get past the fact that sometimes its luck that the puck isn’t on the stick at exactly the right moment. But luck is part of the game. Should we not count goals that take lucky deflections?
Unless there’s been an addition to the rules that I’ve missed, the Makar decision was and is still completely wrong, in two ways.
#1) “A situation where an attacking player (or players) has preceded the puck across the attacking blue line, but the defending team is in a position to bring the puck back out of its defending zone without any delay or contact with an attacking player, or, the attacking players are in the process of clearing the attacking zone.”
#2) “If, during the course of the delayed off-side, any member of the attacking team touches the puck, attempts to gain possession of a loose puck, forces the defending puck carrier further back into his own zone, or who is about to make physical contact with the defending puck carrier, the Linesperson shall stop play for the off-side violation.”
This is an OR statement. The condition of interest is “any member of the attacking team touches … attempts to gain possession of a loose puck.” Continuing forward on your skating line is the definition of attempting to gain possession of a loose puck.
One of the stupidest fckn rules in the history of hockey.
Would of been nice to see a bit more effort over the final two periods to put in some more goals instead of getting out shot 25-11.
Never been a big fan of playing to protect a lead for 50 mins, imo that’s not necessarily winning or good hockey, but to each their own.
Maybe they’ll have a better outing in Panther land, maybe they’ll save a job, hopefully they’ll have some more punch to the goal scoring side of things either way.
3 weeks without a regulation win. Would be nice to break that streak on the same sheet of ice where they’ve experienced so many crushing losses in the last two Springs.
Pickard was great. Good for him. Nice to see Frederic pop a beauty. He played his best game. The boys just couldn’t hang on. Late in the 3rd they looked pooped right out. 3 games in 4 nights piled on with a back to back can do that.
I thought that 1st period was the best they played in a long time. 2nd they seemed to fade a bit, but the defensive scheme from the red line into the zone was way better. The 3rd saw a much more rested team turn on the jets and swarm the Oil. Pickard was outstanding and they just couldn’t hold on. Unfortunately they came up short in OT.
The D was better. Than it has been, turnovers way better, and effort very good.
Lets hope we see a rested team that gives that performance with a little better performance in Florida.
I would go with Pickard again, rewarding that great play and going with the hot goalie.
The Oilers have the worst PDO in the league. Worst 5v5 sv%. Bottom third sh%.
Is this just luck or a reflection of poor goalies/low skill team outside the big three/coaching?
Probably a bit of both.
A bit of everything. I still think when you have a system wide crash, and your RPM has been going down over seasons, it’s at least a lot on the operator
A wide funk does play into the guys not playing as good as they are, confidence. I also think the worm is turning now
The Tomkins signing was such a poor calculation.
They could be running Ingram and Dipietro (.932 after 8 games) for free in the A had they kept some roster flexibility to capitalize on entirely predictable waiver availabilities. And Jonsson’s earned starts in the A too, but they just don’t have the roster flexibility.
It’s not like Tomkins is really holding down the fort in the A or pushing for big-league starts. And if you want to go get Dipietro now, what’s it going to cost you? Howard? Hutson+? When you could have had him for free?
I do think Bowman seems to have a better sense of asset management, but failing to fortify G with free, higher-upside talent at waiver-time was a big, big miss.
If they claimed DiPietro, they wouldn’t have been able to put him in the AHL without exposing him to waivers and Boston would have claimed him back and been able to put him in the AHL (if there were no other claims).
Claiming on waivers was not an option unless they were willing to keep him in the NHL to start the season and put Pickard on waivers.
Oilers played full effort and a much improved game.
Oilers still have identified problems that need fixing. Sheer effort and talent will still win games, but to go all the way, which everyone is hoping for, there is still work to be done.
I am now happy for the awful run. If Oilers were doing just a little bit better they might fool themselves into not see the problems, and not bothering to look for solutions.
The problems and solutions discussed at length. This is a professional hockey team, I want to assume they are well aware.
As fans we are quick to criticize or nit pick BUT we are fans of the oilers and the Jersey. We should be just as quck to applaud them when they play a game like they did last night, especially when it was the third game in 4 nights ..I hope we all turn up for their first home game after this brutal road trip and give them a huge welcome home response when they come on the ice .
Very good first and were ‘this close’ to walking out of Tampa with a shutout. Not an easy task.
They looked composed in their zone even with the legs burning. The whole 3rd was in their end but didn’t see nearly the 5 alarms they were giving up netfront (per eye and LT’s counts).
97 was soft on his guy again and that’s tough but the goal wasn’t exactly a Picasso (or Andy Worhol).
Far from a perfect game, and Picks was the best player by far. That’s what we want right? A goalie to steal (or salvage a point) when the schedule’s working against you?
Wow, you got three when I hit the thumbs up