It all started on July 1, 2016. Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli signed left-wing Milan Lucic to a long and expensive contract, while also trading Taylor Hall. It wasn’t Chiarelli’s original sin, but it was a big one. The July 1 signings of famous people ended when Chiarelli’s madcap follies exhausted the cap.
The next July 1 general manager was Ken Holland. He continued the trend, although more successfully (Zach Hyman). Still, the free-agent waters are dangerous (Jack Campbell). The trend continued through the Jeff Jackson summer and now Stan Bowman. For the Oilers, overpaying aging stars and giving out no-movement clauses on July 1 has become the team’s Moby Dick.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1) 2-0-0
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 9-4-1, 19 points in 14 games
- Season Record: 20-14-6, 46 points in 40 games
I looked at the schedule at the beginning of this month and saw a massive opportunity. I did not see a major trade and four goalies getting the net in one month, but we are here. If the goaltending is fixed, I think we can project the defense to also be workable once Jake Walman returns. Meanwhile, the top two lines are humming like Crash Test Dummies’ “Mmm Mmm Mmm Mmm.”
It was May 24, 1990. It was spring. I remember it as a rainy spring, we had just moved back to the city and I was thrilled to take in Edmonton during a playoff run. It’s a different city with the Oilers in the playoffs, ridiculous pride that can only come from being isolated, independent, day drunk and entrepreneurial. I loved this city in 1990, from the rat hole to Old Strathcona and everywhere in between. I can’t tell you why I’ll never forget the Kid Line, you had to be there. It was cold and windy and we had just celebrated our seventh anniversary 10 days before. It was the Stanley that came out of nowhere (a lot of pieces came together late), and it was secured in Boston. Craig Simpson: Sacrifice and then glory. I wish such an avalanche of memories for you very soon.
I wrote that opener in the fall of 2017, and the last line remains true. I’m an old man, and try not to tell you that this edition of the Oilers may have already peaked, but it slips through often enough to be kind of a drag I’m sure. I know that if you bottled December this Oilers group would have a chance to win it all. Connor McDavid didn’t look right until he did and then he emerged as Superman in December. The top pairing did good work, Darnell Nurse corrected and flew right, and the goaltending was splendid.
Along with getting all the nuts and bolts lined up and tightened, an NHL team badly needs good fortune to win Stanley. People are going to be enraged when Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman don’t make the Canadian Olympic team (I hope they do), but a mid-season rest would benefit this team in my opinion.
As for tonight’s game, haven’t a clue what we’ll get. The Bruins are much better than I thought they would be, the Oilers about right but running so hot and cold we can’t for the life of us figure out level. It’s impossible for me to watch these two teams play without miles of memories running all ’round my brain. Much of my life as a sports fan is tied up in these two jerseys, can’t help but see Bobby Orr and Gregg Sheppard, thinking about Craig Simpson and Mark Lamb is unavoidable. Enjoy tonight. I know I will.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Kevin McCurdy and talk about the Oilers in January plus the deadline. Plenty of football, NBA and of course a bit on the Condors today too. Sports 1440 and You Tube, beginning at noon.
Mr. Tide must be taking a little extra time in bed ringing in the new years.
07/08 Brought up groups of 3D (Team, Comp, ZS) player situation graphs. People argued sample size. Not knowing the Obsolute 100%-0% Removal of Closed SH = 2 Open & Closed SH heat maps xAvg.
In every industry I have worked many Simple variable can have an around 80+% capture rate! Then sometimes more than half cost final 20%.
Looked at Edm schedule vs top 16 & bottom 16 teams.
Top 16 19 gm
6 W/OTW – 10L – 4 SO/OTL
15/38 P .395 win%
Bottom 16 22gm
14 W/OTW – 5L – 3 OTL
31/44 P .705 Win%
Most years (Have not checked last 2) 3 of the 6 Best Penetration & Open SH redux def teams make final 4.
Post trade:
Vs Top 16 2P 3gm .333 Win%
vs Bottom 16 10P 7gm .714/Win%
Happy New Years – 2026 will be the year we win the Cup!
I see from comments here that the “blame the goalie” habit dies hard in Oilerville. It might be that, not unlike the Flames and Jets games, the D&F weren’t “connecting” in this game. Weren’t hungry or angry enough. Lots of perimeter.
Also, lots of bobbles and missed passes (Draisaitl was not “on,” hasn’t been for several games.)
To their credit, Bruins pressed, pressed, and pressed again.
I’m not a big fan of the extracurriculars, but tonight it showed a sign of frustration amongst the team that I welcome. Like the previous shellackings, this one should hurt their pride.
2026, here we come.
Both a team and its goaltender are capable of having a bad game, at the same time.
Even the nimblest of social constructivists cannot deny that the actuals are the inverse of expected and the most logical of explanations for this rests with the individual responsibility of the goaltenders.
https://ibb.co/Sw0gG7Nq
Bruins not taking any shit out there. Even in garbage time. Oilers should learn that lesson
Yep. We are so soft. Janmark was terrified, Nurse could have sent a message but like always it was half measures and Kuraly (?) showed more aggression. Frederic, Janmark, Mangiapane, Henrique all need to be replaced with some speed and energy IMO.
We are team timid…..
Alex Lyon. Pack your shit. You’re headed to Edmonton.
There’s a chance the 2 goalies that dressed tonight are not the 2 goalies that start the playoffs
Way, way , WAY too many low shots tonight.
Nurse half way goes down and out of the play. Bouch looking at something. I dunno what. Not his man, anyways, but gets praised for accidentally blocking a shot.
Alrighty then.
That’s why he isn’t on team Canada. Great offensive instincts. Not great defensive instincts…
This team just refuses to get on a roll.
But I suppose the debt is paid to the hockey gods for the W in Winnipeg.
Ingram is a large reason for this L.
Also Knoblauch deserves some of the blame. 88 should never play another game as an Oiler, and the fact he is in the lineup at all is on coaching.
29 also looking the NYE party started at noon.
Shooting the puck! Who knew?
At least Jack has some hands.
Roslo!
Terrible GA.
But at least this goalie shouldn’t go into a mental spiral over one bad game.
Makes no sense to just keep running these underperforming forwards out there when you have Howard and Hutson just ripping up the AHL. It getting ridiculous already
couple thoughts on the Condors game. Thought Unger played very well, made some nice saves early. Howard is the real deal. Very good at finding an open man in the O zone, and was great to see how hard he skated when backchecking. I was told the top 3 dmen on the team were not available and they still got the win.
There’s 5 forwards that all have a claim to be called up, entire top line, Poulin, and Jarventie.
So far the biggest difference is goaltending and I think coaching is next: Pickard should have started and then if not, Ingram should have been pulled after the third goal.
The Roslo, Janmark, and Savoie line hasn’t looked good—their Fenwick is in the 20 percent.
I’m a huge Roslo fan, but he’s not a centre in the National Hockey League.
Mangiapane on the Draisaitl line also isn’t working. This line is also getting torched.
I haven’t seen anything from Ingram to think he’s crapping the bed(missed the first, mind you) but both are fighting for the backup spot and it should be “win and you’re in”. Let them compete and may the best man win the day.
I’m biased because I’m an Ingram fan—back from when he was in Arizona.
The first goal against didn’t look great, but he had moved laterally and Pasternak banked it in off him. Optics unfortunately are poor from most viewers.
The second goal against was probably stoppable.
If it was win and you are in the Picks wouldn’t have got the Winnipeg game. Honestly I think you need to run Ingram as the starter for now and see what you have. We know what we have in Picks. He has some big games but also shits the bed allot. He has some of the worst numbers in the NHL this year. Still like the guy and cheer for him but it would not be smart to not see what you have in Ingram.
Incorrect. Ingram played the game against the flames.
My apologies, you are correct.
Watching McDavid turn Zadorov into a pylon never gets old.
I haven’t watch the first and early third but Ingram isn’t at fault on the two goals I’ve seen .
Regula spending too much time with Nurse. Starfish to nowhere
That set play on the power play where Nuge sneaks in for the back door pass from McDavid appears to have been scouted.
Wonky shot counter in Boston.
Ingram had two shots against at the beginning that were wiped off the slate then a few others that haven’t counted.
I’ve been noticing this a lot the last couple of seasons, league wide. A few goalies have mentioned it also.
They are vetting all shots now to ensure they were going to be on net and, if not, ensuring a shot on goal is not counted:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6907302/2025/12/22/nhl-fewer-shots-technology/
Well, Happy New Year from Nova Scotia! Maybe the Oilers can turn this game around now that it’s 2026 in my part of the country.
Mang finally doing what I thought he would do since we signed him. Let’s get one, here
Big PP coming up here
This is not good goaltending.
Whose still packing Pickards bags for him?
0-3 on the powerplay and then that goes in…yuck.
Ingram hasn’t looked sharp as Leadfarmer pointed out, but the third goal looked like it was tipped and he was screened.
It definitely bounced of a body in front
TMac wants Gene to send him that suit to wear behind the Detroit bench.
Hyman from his office, nice way to finish the period.
We needed that big time hopefully that’ll open up the flood gates for 3 goals this upcoming period.
McDavid looking inevitable tonight
No hands McDavid is a sight to behold.
Ingram not very sharp tonight
Yes, let’s not get rid if Pickard too quickly.
McDavid will never score again.
Already sick of Jack Michael’s. I wish I hadn’t watched that game on Prime and seen what good or even normal play by play sounds like. He is so bad I have to watch the game without volume again
The BOS feed is okay so far.
Mistake by Ingram.
I’m not so sure he had time to get set to the post, given he had to respect a potential shot from in front of the goal line.
My post was about the delay of game penalty.
Howard to Marjala to Griffith to Howard who shoots from the top of the circles, it hits a few things and wobbles in.
4-1 at the end of 2.
Summarizing!
Nicholl did not garner soup in his season debut, but was one of only three Knights to finish even in a 5-1 loss.
Barnett too was held soupless, playing 16:18 which was 4th among the 7 US d-men.
Prospecting takes a break until next year (or, Freya’s Day).
Olympic gold medal game starter #Binnington final form tonight.
Olympic secret pick Fleury at red bull training facility.
Ungar doing what he can to ensure his save percentage is around .944 on every team he plays on, no matter the league, and he lets in the 14th shot.
3-1.
3 minutes into the first period and the Avalanche lead Binnington and the Blues 3-0 while a 4th goal was called back.
Oh my.
4-0 five minutes in.
Condors lose the offensive zone face-off but some very sloppy defensive zone work by CV and good forecheck by Howard and a loose puck goes all the way across the ice and Hutson buries it from the outside – bad goal on the goalie but a great shot nonetheless.
3-0.
Pretty cool we have so many young forwards rocking it on offence in Bakersfield!!!
Can/Finland game might be 10-9! 4 goals on first 5 shots.
6 goals now on 12 shots!
HARD forecheck by the 3rd/4th line, Hamblin causes the turnover, takes it to the middle, puts it on net, Keppen with a very patina play on the rebound but a save, Hamblin drives the net and bangs home the rebound for a 2-0 lead late in 1st.
Glad to see Ethan knock off the rust by Keppen at it.
Watching WJHC Sweden vs USA…Sweden looks good. Dominant.
Its not the medal round yet – long history of dominating the round robin and then soiling the bed in the medal round.
Condors top line of Howard/Samanski/Hutson is dynamic in the first period tonight.
Dangerous every shift.
Samanski with great work at the defensive blue on the PK to get a clear and gets a chance.
The attackers come back up the ice but run in to each other and Hamblin steps up to to know the puck loose and Poulin gets a clear cut breakaway from center – buries it for his first as a Condor and the 1-0 lead.
It’s only a matter of time before Poulin big ass skilled body gets a good look in Edmonton.
You should tune in and see what the top line is doing out there…..
Samanski could be the 3-C we’ve been dreaming about for 20 years. I can’t believe Bowman has these 3 legit young prospects all for the cost of O’Reilly.
It should be Pickard’s net tonight.
Suppose that means the writing is on the wall.
Could be. I feel after a game like he had on Monday he should get the call again.
Unfortunately, until Ingram has a poor game, I don’t think it’s “win and you’re in” when it comes to Pickard. They also need Ingram to face some more pressure to see what he can handle. Also, starting with the Jan 3rd game, there are 15 games in 29 days, so there’s probably some game management between the 2 goalies, especially if Jarry is out longer than expected.
I understand your points. However, I feel Pickard may well still be needed with this group and that being rewarded with another game could go along way, especially with a guy the players love.
Don’t agree.
Great game by Pickard last night but he’s the back-up to Ingram right now – Figuring out the trio going forward is primary. Of course, 2 points is always primary but Picks having an all-time game the other night does not mean he’s any more likely to help the team win tonight than Ingram.
I understand your points. However, I feel Pickard may well still be needed with this group and that being rewarded with another game could go along way, especially with a guy the players love.
Downvotes shouldnt be anonymous LT. 😏
We have a ton of home games before the Olympic break. If our goaltending can hold up I’ll be happy with a 13W-5L.
Vegas blows a 2-0 lead and loses in reg to Nashville.
Anaheim loses in extras to Tampa.
Up to the Oilers to take advantage of opportunity and make up real ground in the P% race for 1st.
A Connor starts at both levels – Ungar gets the start for the Condors tonight (behind half a defence).
Wow!
Hat tip to Kevin McCurdy:
https://x.com/kevinmccurdy/status/2006096931769180667?s=46
Per Stauffer:
Shout out to Woodguy who connected the dots here.
Not that it matters but initial hat tip was given to Kevin at 11:17 this morning.
You gave a hat tip and gave it first, so now if anyone else does.. you beat your chest as the originalhattip?
Good grief.
Just noting – feel free to to give it more power than it needs.
11:17 EVERYONE!!!!!! But have I shared my travel plans and workout routine with you yet? It never gets old🤣
Not sure the last time I mentioned my workout routine but glad that’s stuck in your head for years.
So you’re telling me you have a workout routine😅
Sorry I’m late guys, I was just on a flight to Kazakhstan for a winter get away and I noticed nobody hat tipped Ryan for hat tipping woodguy. I’d like to declare first hat tipper of the hat tipper. I’ll try to get back to answer your comments but I might be very busy on my trip. But I’ll likely find time to remind everyone I’m on this trip.
Nobody better double my hat tip, but feel free to hat tip me for my hat tip.
Happy new year, I’m ahead a few hours so I’m allowed to say it now.
Awesome.
Lets us know how the trip is. We are planning a “Stans” trip for August – Kazakhstan definitely included (Uzbekistan, Tyrzigstan and, hopefully, Pakistan).
Bahahaha. Nailed it😉
He can take a victory lap on this one. He’s always been a great follow but this was some elite level prognosticating.