There’s a window for everyone, in all things. We rarely know when it ends, and sometimes take it for granted. Only when it’s gone, when the saloon doors stop swinging and the main highway doesn’t run through town anymore, do we realize what is lost and what is gone forever.
I’d like this Oilers team to settle in and thrive in January, and I believe we are seeing it. The team lost last night, but the McDavid goal should have counted and what were they going to tell Corey? Or Drew for that matter. It was a helluva hockey game, though. Some good arrows for Edmonton, too.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 2-1-1, five points in four games
- Season Record: 22-16-7, 51 points in 45 games
The Oilers were led by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard, Leon absolute fire at the five-on-five. More please. The first goal was perfect hockey, a line that delivers perfectly in the proper sequence. I’m loving the top three lines right now, and the coach seems to be warming to a fourth unit that showed well last night. Music!
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 12:52, 3-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 28X, 1-1 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen 12:49, 7-6 shots, 2-0 goals, 47X, 2-3 HDSC
- Howard-Roslovic-Savoie 8:13, 3-4 shots, 35X, 0-2 HDSC
- Frederic-Lazar-Janmark 5:40, 2-1 shots, 97X, 2-0 HDSC
The McDavid line didn’t have a huge night, partly due to the LAK’s pure filth (it’s effective, people) and veteran savvy. Anderson-Doughty are just the meanest people this side of the Pecos, although Doughty has clearly lost a step. I don’t have much to criticize for this line, the trio owns a 62 percent goal share and is scoring 3.99-60 at five-on-five. McDavid scored the winner, they just didn’t count it.
The Draisaitl line delivered a wild night and Leon was exceptional. That first goal was a thing of beauty. Leon had six shots on goal, just a one-man wrecking crew. I like this trio, they have been together just 48 minutes but have made an impressive. Goal share at five-on-five? 71 percent. Goals-60 at five-on-five? 6.13. Yeah. That’ll play.
The Roslovic line remained intact for the third game in a row (about 23 minutes now). Haven’t scored yet, but own a 76 percent expected goal share. I wonder if the coach will tweak, someone in the front office must be apoplectic over the lack of size. I’d stay the course. They look dangerous and Howard needs the reps.
The Lazar line did well. Lazar had both high dangers and Frederic won four of five in the faceoff dot. I like the line, but as is the case with the third unit, they need to cash. In 15 minutes together, this line has an 80 percent expected goal share. Need to cash.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 19:48, 8-6 shots, 2-1 goals, 50X, 2-4 HDSC
- Nurse-Emberson 16:08, 3-6 shots, 28X, 2-1 HDSC
- Stastney-Regula 9:09, 4-7 shots, 0-1 goals, 24X, 0-2 HDSC
- Connor Ingram 27 of 30, .900
My old friend Rob Vollman invented the ‘quality start percentage’ years ago and I like to check on it from time to time. Connor Ingram is at 83 percent for the Edmonton Oilers. He’s either the best or second best goaltender on the roster. Stan Bowman has to keep him on the team. That’s my opinion.
CONDORS
The top five forwards listed here (including Ike Howard) are easily the class of the group, but Viljami Marjala is trending in that direction in a big way. Beau Akey and Damien Carfagna are taking over on defense, and Matt Tomkins kept the team in the game last night when the coach had to go with a skeleton roster. Next recall? I think Samanski, but it could be Roby Jarventie. Will the Oilers have a look at Beau Akey? I think it’s too soon.
Why Edmonton Oilers prospect Josh Samanski is pushing for recall
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6959885/2026/01/11/edmonton-oilers-josh-samanski-prospect/
Really like the fact that Samanski is a bigger guy who has some physicality. Oilers have too many small players. One of the reasons I didn’t like the Mangi signing. Bottom D pair also missing big and mean.
Thanks. I’m forward to seeing him w Drai on Team Germany.
Narratives sure get legs around here these days. Gregor researched and wrote about Jarry, he is not injury prone. He was injured, not the same thing
Maybe that’s his future, it hasn’t been a big factor in his past
I don’t think he was injury prone prior to 2023, but since Jan/23 he’s been on IR 4 times, so I think there’s a concern he is becoming injury prone as he gets older.
Skinner officially with a better save percentage with the Pens than with the Oilers this season. Just pulled out another W.
Glad for him
Skinner would have had a better save percentage in Edmonton had he stayed, the annual turn around was just around the corner but whatever.
and that’s officially a 25 save shutout for Connor Ungar…..
Unreal season for Ungar so far. He’s becoming quite the story
That was a fantastic game! This on top of a gritty, gusty shorthanded performance less than 24 hrs ago.
The 2 ECHL call-ups Brown & Stonehouse were both very effective out there.
Ungar, the “Modern Moog” now has a stellar record sitting at 5-0. 0.953. 1.38
I would love to bring Ungar up to the big club for a heat check ASAP.
Holding a 0.944+ save percentage while playing 16 games across four different pro teams has to be unprecedented. 0.953 in his 5 AHL games.
It likely never happens, but I believe it is currently possible without exposing anyone to waivers.
Unless I’m missing something, Ingram is still under the waiver window threshold of 10 NHL games played and 30 days on the roster. I believe Ingram’s recall date was December 20 and he has only appeared in 6 games. Thus he can head back to the AHL this week without being exposed to waivers.
I would welcome a confirmation or correction on the waiver eligibility logic.
If true, this makes Ingram the odds on favourite in my book, to be sent down if Jarry comes back this week. He’s outplayed Pickard, but I don’t think they want to risk losing Calvin to waivers.
I would play Ingram tomorrow against Chicago, then send him down to Bakersfield. Swap him for Ungar on Tuesday and have Ungar start against Nashville. If Ungar does well, you keep him up until Jarry comes back.
Run Jarry and Pickard through the Olympic break while the Connor’s duel it out in Bakersfield. If/when Pickard/Jarry falters or gets hurt… Bring up the best Connor on merit.
Why not?
Waivers.
I’d wait until absolutely necessary to bring him up. Let him have his heater in the AHL and let it continue! Fantastic news but I’d like to use Askarov as a marker for a great AHL goalie but NHL numbers tell a diff tale this year.
I think Skinner’s AHL and early NHL stats are more of a comparison to Askarov’s numbers.
I’ve been banging Ungar drum loudly and have been watching his play very closely. His style is very similiar to Dustin Wolf, but probably has better positioning, so doesn’t rely on his athleticism as much, at least at the AHL level, so far.
He made an outstanding save on a wrap around on Joel Hicketts last night that was spectacular, so he definitely has the quickness/athleticism to play at a higher level.
Ungar is on his ELC – he’s waivers exempt for the full season.
Hutson with a good defensive zone battle to clear the puck, he jumps past the defender to get his own clear and bury the 2-0 in the the empty net.
Another ENG by Marjala and its 3-0.
Just a wild effort by the Condors tonight, with 10 regulars out after travelling an a short turnaround from last night’s game.
Just battling all night long.
End up short 5 on 3 for a minute with six minutes left and Hamblin in the box – they kill it.
Stilman with a massive hit and the Reign take a penalty in retaliation.
Marjala with a great zone entry, over the Hutson, a dangle, down low to Griffith, finds Marjala sneaking in and he buries the 1-0 with about 2 minutes to go.
Poulin and Hutson on a clear 2 on 0 from centre on the PK – Poulin put it right on Hutson’s stick and he fired it high/wide – likely too much unnecessary heat on the pass.
0-0 almost half way through the second.
Somehow, this make-shift Condor team has been the better team overall.
Shots 12-9 Condors.
Intel that Walman will play Tuesday and I have seen picture confirmation of him getting off the plane (with his Dad) in Chicago.
Jarry also rumoured to be playing on this trip.
Oilers will still need to move one player out in order to activate both (even with Henrique on LTIR) – will it be Ingram, Pickard or Howard?
Typically you’d move a goalie, but maybe it’s not so clear cut if you have a goalie with an injury history.
Going to be very interesting. Easiest would be to put Henrique on LTIR because it kicks the can down the road, but that impacts the trade deadline and available money.
Could we root for a trade (move out Mangi) instead?
They will 100% need to put Henrique on LTIR if they don’t consummate a cap clearing trade and, well, that trade would be done the second the Oilers could close it so I won’t expect it until it happens.
Even with Henrique on LTIR, they will need to clear just under $1MM I believe and, yes, normally it would be a goalie but I’m not positive they do that yet and I believe Stauff mentioned recently they could keep 3 goalies for a bit.
I know the Sens signed Reimer to the AHL PTO with the intent to sign an NHL contract but, as meh as he is, Pickard on waivers is a fairly easy stop-gab claim, no?
Reimer lets in 6 on 28 shots in his Belleville debut.
We know the AHL stats mean nothing but still notable.
Agreed. With Jarry’s health a question mark I’m not sure the Oilers want to take that risk.
Feel like this topic is beaten to death – how feasible would it be to relocate the AHL team to Edmonton?
You’d think at this point there must be some sort of financial gain from a Owner with McDuck pockets that this would be a money maker?
Or is it not a money maker with a WHL and NHL team in Edmonton?
I always wondered if Red Deer would work for the baby Oilers, but maybe the pop. is too small (or lack of airport)
I was actually going to lump Red Deer in, but I don’t think it logistically and Financially makes sense.
Edmonton is a hockey town, fans are deeply entrenched (good and bad – bad in the form of sending messages to team member families after losses, fckin gross), so I can’t see how Edmonton couldn’t do oil kings, condors, oilers.
Hell, call them the Edmonton River Valley Sturgeons!
With an NHL game out of reach or feasible for most die hard fans, the AHL team would probably be of interest.
I think downtown could support another or expansion of the ice district.
Ken Holland was asked about that many times and he was completely against it – he wanted a call-up to the NHL to mean more than just changing dressing rooms, for example an in premise.
I believe Bowman was asked about it by Staff on Ched this summer, he didn’t shut it down completely but was vague and said those are larger conversations with Jackson, etc.
I do know believe that Bakersfield is a successful organization off the ice.
Honestly, it’s quite strange.
I know someone who was in the AHL and in his stints, one of the reasons he liked playing for the Marlies was based on the fact how close you were to the real deal, and it made it more professionally run from other organizations.
That could be based just on how the Leafs are ran, more then proximity, but dear lord, the travel is awful. I can’t see how a GM looks at the distance and goes “yep – this is ideal” Edit – travel from Edmonton to Bakersfield*
Bakersfield was a strong ECHL market, which is probably why the Oilers bought them. Probably a good town to have to recruit college free agents to.
However, if the Oilers have a Canadian AHL team, I would think Saskatoon would be a great fit and good place to solidify fan base.
If Calgary can do it, I feel the Oilers definitely could.
Yea, if I was an owner I would have told Ken Holland to stuff it. Sometimes dinosaur train of thought needs to be wiped and travel that supports a healthy team makes more sense.
Samanski out today with illness.
Condors will be shot 10 regulars today.
Apparently if 50% or more the players in an Olympic game play in the NHL the refs will be NHL refs.
I posted about this in another thread on today’s blog.
That is pretty much the premise but, from what I understand:
As we all know society has become so negative these days and that is never more evident than on social media and in our politics with people attacking almost everyone and everything. It seems we have forgotten that these are human beings like you and I that we are talking about . Being a fan does not give us the right to be cruel . So I have an idea to share .
How would everyone feel if once month we asked LT to declared the article of the day as “BE KIND ” day and all of us can only post comments that can be constructive but must only be positive about a player, management, particular player’s play, coaches decision etc ..No negative comments will be allowed .. I know for me it would be a much more enjoyable read .
I wouldn’t despair, much of social media is bots meant to drive strong emotions and therefore engagement. The rest is trolls and cickbaiters. I’d also venture you mostly mean twitter, because my insta feed is just semi funny reels and highlights.
Some folks treat here like twitter or ON. Then they’re faced with real people and they usually soften up quick. It’s humanizing.
Some folks take joy in being right in their misery, I’ve never understood that one, but it likely has little to do with the Oilers.
If you don’t want the negativity, you can skip a day in the comments. Done that on many occasions after losses, especially early in the year. Asking others to change is not a winning proposition imo.
Thanks for the calming words .
There are days I long for the good old days of the oilers in the 80’s when there were a half dozen stories in the Sun or Journal by reporters like Terry Jones . Any debate was as you say “face to face ” around the water cooler or over a beer with friends at your local watering hole .
The world seemed so much more civilized back then and It was a fun time in Edmonton. You would go to an Eskimos game that had 50,000 fans watch Keply and Moon et el win a game, go for.an early dinner with friends and then off to the Northlands to watch Gretzky and his crew probably win.. Then home with a smile.
This new social media world seems to be missing the human element of kindness and respect which makes one wonder what its real value is .
I’m okay with
“Try to be reasonable, fair, not so emotional and most important be kind in manner to others you engage with in comments”
But like uneeded really as this is LT in a nutshell and the general consistent tone of almost everyone who posts here with any regularity.
If worth anything it feels worth offering:
You might need to conciously take a hard break from social media scrolling on the main public platforms.
I did like 4 years ago and as i dipped toe back in implementing a pause before responding and return later if at that point it felt like you still had something you wanted to say.
Holy crap has it freed me from the toxic poison of it’s impact in incredible ways.
As i left my birthday brunch about an hour ago. When i got outside just took this huge breath in and felt amazing.
One of these 2 skid punk kids smoking right at door chimed in “finally free eh?”
I chuckled and turned to give appreciativr nod and without thinking conciously but clearly thinking shot back “it’s always better outside…and it always will be. Never forget that gentlemen. Trust me”.
It hit and resonated and they both shot huge smiles and honestly stood up about an inch taller. Funny but “gentlemen” surely not a word that landed often or was taken lightly. Magic effect respect has out there.
48 doesn’t look or feel too bad on me. I’m that cool grizzled no bs vet that looked at poor kid punkish hillbilly outlaw sort of me and offered advice that hit home because it was delivered by the type of elder man that didn’t judge what he said too over weighted based on what he saw. Spoke the same to everyone from a perspective of presuming worthy of respect equally.
Just my turn to pay it back.
Take it easy out there!
I feel like our good host has already fostered an environment like you’re proposing for years (decades actually). I approve of the sentiment and have been a much happier, balanced person since I abandoned social media for good. This blog is the closest I get to arguing with strangers online nowadays.
The fact that talking politics is still verboten goes a long way in creating space for respectful dialogue. Nothing makes it easier to discount reasonable points like learning your opponent has divergent politics than you.
There isn’t a lot of ad hominem attacks here, if you ignore the abuse DSF puts up with. He is a bit of a sophist, but I find him to be generally well informed and certainly stimulates discussion. Your mileage may vary.
As far as the players on the team, the coaching staff, or management goes: I think people should voice their opinions as they see fit. I know that I pretty much gloss over comments where it’s the same person making the same point day after day.
Be the change you want to see in the world. It might not change anything out there, but it’ll do wonders for you. Bring the positivity. I’ll always welcome it (even if I don’t agree with you).
Thank you for the new word
“Sophist”
This place always amazing things a person learns in unique ways.
Forcing kindness, like forcing anything, is totalitarian.
I always thought kindness and empathy was a learned behaviour I know it was with me and I never looked at my parents as having totalitarian leanings
By embodying this manner consistently you were shown not just the tools you needed to operate this way successfully but understand the reward.
This was developed not by them demanding (completely contrary to concept manifesting) it was by giving the example that made easy option to follow as properly honed it can be unquestionably rewarding.
The golden rule, which is essentially universal across cultures, is “do unto others”, not “tell/order unto others”.
If you value kindness, be kind. I would argue it is not kindness to demand kindness from others. i.e. Your request/demand was hypocritical.
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
·
3h
Condors, who started with 10 forwards last night, likely won’t have all 10 today. They’ve brought up Brady Stonehouse and Matthew Brown from Fort Wayne, who arrive in LA at 11:30 for a 4 p.m. game. Life comes at you fast
I doubt it will happen in Edmonton, but I envision a 3rd line in the playoffs that has Sherwood on the RW & McMann on the LW.
I’ve liked mcmann as a target for awhile. Earlier this year he’d have been cheap I would think. He’s probably tough to acquire now as he’s been playing top 6. Ideal target though.
I worry with the Sherwood target as the price would be high and the oil would likely sign him to a retirement contract with a likely drop off in play. I liked him as a target a few years back but not now.
McMann is listed as 4 LW and Sherwood 3 RW on their respective rosters today*. I know they both have spent a lot of time on the fist and second lines this season.
They are ideally 3rd liners on a good team, but their versatility is definitively what makes them valued assets.
* As per Puckpedia
That Broberg take down by Stone was nasty. No need for that in the game.
Full intent to injure in my opinion, old and slow, Stone will do this again.
I had high hopes for Bro as an Oiler, the one concern was that lack of on ice awareness and getting hurt too much. Players that don’t learn it get targeted, as per always. I hope he’s ok
I remember Don Cherry saying Lindros had to stop cutting to the middle with his head down, even though he was one of the biggest players in the league. He was right
I don’t buy the idea that Stone’s hit was simply a lack of on-ice awareness. It was either a nasty hit, or an unfortunate body alignment where Broberg’s legs were taken out—could argue, potentially, borderline slew-foot territory. Calling that “awareness” feels like a stretch.
Anyone who watched hockey in the 90s knew about Lindros skating with his head down. He was so physically dominant in junior and the minors that it rarely put him at risk—he could shrug off contact. Unfortunately, that habit was never really coached out of him prior to hitting the NHL level.
On top of that, Lindros was a prime target. Power checkers would’ve loved to make a name for themselves by lining up the league’s biggest superstar power forward. That context matters when discussing those hits. Stevens loved searching for those opportunities, Ulf, etc.
A player can’t avoid everything, but you have to learn how to take a hit or avoid the best of it, hopefully before you get to the NHL. Some guys get plastered a lot, Emberson comes to mind. Some are very aware and are very hard to hit, often the rat players who guys are looking to light up
Bro was getting smoked as an Oiler, it was a topic around here. I saw the replay and he didn’t look like he expected Stone to man handle him, or even lay much of a hit on him
Who knows but that’s what I saw, and Bro is the same size as Stone, it’s not like it was Stecher. But then he doesn’t get nailed that often that I remember
Honestly, we prob both have valid points.
It would be nice however, if refs could call the bs more often. Hate what happened to Davidson
Broberg was taking a hit to make a play, nothing special or unusual, but it was a nasty and questionable hit by Stone. Stone took out both of his legs, basically flipping him backwards, so that he landed on his shoulders whiplashing his head into the ice.
Stone’s raised his back leg to lift Broberg’s weight bearing back leg off the ice, thigh to thigh.
If it were shin to calf, it would be a clear slewfoot, but it was higher, so sneaky dirty, with plausible deniability. Matt Cooke would be proud.
Fool me once, (Stone on Heiskanen last year), benefit of the doubt.
Fool me twice, (Stone on Broberg this year), grumpy old man Stone is sneaky dirty.
Speaking of Stauff, hot off his twitter:
I have a good feeling about Paul Fischer – I presume they will get him signed with Notre Dame is done this season.
I agree with Samanski being high on the list – I’ve been touting him for two months now – love this kid.
The top five forwards listed here (including Ike Howard) are easily the class of the group, but Viljami Marjala is trending in that direction in a big way. Beau Akey and Damien Carfagna are taking over on defense, and Matt Tomkins kept the team in the game last night when the coach had to go with a skeleton roster. Next recall? I think Samanski, but it could be Roby Jarventie. Will the Oilers have a look at Beau Akey? I think it’s too soon.
————
Marjala with his best 5 on 5 offensive game of the year last night.
Samanski is PPG in the last 25 games and top 10 in the AHL scoring in that 25-game stretch, Its Samanski, not Hutson, that leads the Condors in points at 5 on 5. Every time Stauff talks about Samanski, its a next year thing, so I dont’ forsee a call-up but I’m not sure he’s any “less ready” than either Jarventie or Hutson.
Beau Akey has certainty “popped” in the last 2-3 weeks and the pairing with Carfagna is excelling.
Looking forward to the game tonight at 5 without a competing Oilers game – Condors played late last night in SJ and play late afternoon at home today – they played short last night and it sounds like most of those that did play are battling illness. This team sure does battle though!
I’ve heard the same thing about Samaski from Stauff (27-28 vs. this year).
Was hoping that if he went to the Olympics and did some good things it might change the coaches mind.
It might have been Keith Gretzky who said it last week, but the talk was that when all the AHL dmen got healthy that Akey may have to go back to the ECHL so he could play 25 minutes every night instead of 8-9 minutes a night.
I think I’ve listened to all of Keith Gretzky’s recent media avails and don’t recall him saying that but I may have missed.
In any event, Akey is playing huge minutes and the AHL and thriving – he’s done with the ECHL forever I’m sure.
Hope you’re right. But it was on his Jan 6th avail.
Fairly certain I listened to that and don’t recall – I’ll go back and listen if I can find it.
In any event, Akey is popping currently and its tough to imagine any re-assignment down any time in his future.
Podz had one of his best regular season games as an Oiler to my eye last night – he was fantastic.
I’ve mentioned before that Kap seemed to have changed his game a bit in the playoffs and even moreso early this year prior to his injury. He’s added a bit of a shit disturber, pest, dickhead element and he’s getting under the skin of the opposition – he’s continued that since his return from injury and I’m hear for it.
In addition, Kap is playing some great hockey going north (I think he’s still somewhat of a tire fire in the defensive zone and he’s been a bit lucky to not have caused a couple goals against in his 3 games back) – using the speed and size and his puck play is, well, helping produce goals.
Can he continue this for 5, 10, 30 games?
Podz & Kapanen are good bookends for Leon.
Podz continues to impress me. I love the way he plays, they need a bunch more guys like that. That type of lesser skilled player can play any game the other guys want, and come out on top
I said it before the game yesterday and it’s getting even “more true” but this line needs to pot one soon if they are going to survive.
This line is made up of two slightly rookie NHLers (one rookie pro) and a defensively meh skilled winger playing centre – as much as they can look good and dangerous in the offensive zone for more than half their time, they will likely make a couple, if not more, real mistakes per game and likely to leak a goal against most games or 2 of 3 – and that’s kind of what we are seeing.
Here is hoping they can bury one on Monday!
Maybe Janmark could be the defensive conscience. IMO.
Perhaps, moreso than Roslovic of course but, another “non-centre” and he’s simply a black hole offensively that I cannot see him as a fit on that line.
I do note, Frederic got bumped up for some face-offs last in the game and did well – if only he could start to find a semblance of is Boston game…..
McDavid was robbed of his OT winner, walked old and slow like usual.
Knoblauch lost the Oilers that game, play McDrai nearly the entire OT, then threw their exhausted arses for the shootout.
Is Knoblauch aware he has a bunch of skill on the bench? Howard wouldn’t be a good option? Roslovic?
Good grief coach.
I’m not sure the officials were going to allow Edmonton to win that game last night. I wouldn’t blame the coach at all.
That was such an obvious time – obvious to me – that the yuuts should have been sent over the boards for the shoot out. Low risk, high reward.
What part of that is low risk?
The other part is engaging the whole group. He is creating an environment where it’s all on the Duo. Not good down the road a few months
Bob was talking about secondary scorers getting no gravy time on the Oilers, and it affects their production, which affects their game. Josh Manson excited as a little kid that he got to run a PP
Yes we know what the top guys can do and it will certainly be needed. The bottom guys having success leads to energy. Need more of that. Gotta find them more gravy time especially the current third liners.
Just thinking about that Manson interview again and was reminded about the format that Altitude TV uses after home games.
They have a set that is backed by a very large restaurant-looking lounge in which fans of all ages are seated….likely a couple hundred fans including excited kids.
The set had a big couch and a couple of arm chairs where the play-by-play guy, colour analyst and game host were all seated with Manson parked in the in the middle of the couch.
Very casual and friendly…made for great TV as well.
I think coach should have/could have worked to get Roslovic a shift in OT (in particular with Hyman having a tough game) but the Oilers dominate the entirety of OT:
Shot Attempts: 8-1
HD Shot Attempts: 3-0
Scoring Changes: 6-1
With the stoppages, etc. in OT, the minutes for the top unit were fine.
They may have been “tired” for OT but is there anyway Drai doesn’t shoot last night – his game, 2 goals, best player all game. McDavid is in one of his best production streaks of his career last night, how does he not shoot?
I could have time for Howard or Roslovic over Nuge as the 3rd shooter.
I love the third line but the game against LA shows the ways they need to improve. LA interfered all over the ice & was allowed to do so by the refs, which mimics the playoffs. The 22-28-53 were kept to the perimeter most of the time & snuffed out on the boards.
Those 3 will have to game out how to get interior play in those kind of conditions. For clever, puck capable players that is possible.
Also, LA had a real simple exit strategy. I did not pick up on enough to see what they were doing, but it was essentially 2 passes through the neutral zone from beind their net. The Oilers could (should??) use a strategy like that to beat hard forechecks.
I do tend to think that in face of that kind of opposition the third line, as currently constructed, can sometimes look busy – lots of try, legs moving and buckets of buzz – while not in fact presenting much of a threat to score. On the other hand they should be good for two goals at least, already, with just one or two more better bounces than they’ve had.
I guess I’m saying they’ve been close but may find themselves constitutionally challenged by a stand-up defensive effort. No bull on that line. No net presence as such.
I would like to point out that while he did not get a point, Podkolzin was key to both eon goals. The kid is making an impact.
They need a Podz type on all four lines.
Especially that third line. I wonder if Janmark might add an element to the third line that’s missing and Savoie might add an element to the fourth line that’s missing. Just a small tweak that might work and I repeat might work.
Howard-Roslovic-Janmark
Freddy-Lazar-Savoie
Savoie is very versatile. Can play all over without being a negative.
Janmark has been tried there with no success granted that was with Henrique mostly.
The third line continues to provide offensive chances but no results yet. Probably will have to add some meat there maybe trough a shuffle.
Well the other option is Frédéric. Which do you prefer?
I’d actually shuffle Podz and Nuge to line 3 but that’s very unlikely.
The top two lines with Kapanen back have been established. Roslovic has been allocated to 3c. It would appear they’re going to run with things as is for continuity sake for the time being. Although a small tweak might be a consideration with the bottom six is all I’m saying.
Frederic is the 4th liner that they need to make an impact on that third line but he continues to not be there – I will continue to hope for it prior to every game but I really thought he was going to show more over the last two game and, well, just didn’t.
The late game extra shifts for face-offs, maybe that’s a start.
Oilers were lucky to even get a point last night.
LA is a big team. They always seem to play a tough game against the Oil.
Oilers came out flat, and besides Drai’s line, there wasn’t much 5 on 5.
That 3rd line definitely were kept to the outside all night against that Large LA D.
2 goals were very soft.
The 3 on 3 was fun.
I hate shootouts, and the Oil stink at them, especially this year.
So yes lucky to get 1 point.
Also anyone Doubting that Drew Doughty shouldn’t be on the Olympic team just needs to look at last nights game. The guy is a warrior ( loves playing Edmonton) and will play like that in every big game he plays.
Perry 11 goals . He would still look good on a very soft and smaller Oilers team
Crappy game. So reload. And let’s see a better performance. The 3 game win is a curse this year .
Bouchard outplayed Doughty, again.
No he didn’t lol
Bouch was drastically better than drew. Drew was caught chasing several times and was lucky to not have been scored on more. Including in ot
Sure bud.
At this stage of their career, Bouchard is the better player. But Doughty has that personality & veteran presence that Bouchard may or may not ever transcend to.
Leadership….it’s a thing.
Leadership is not in short supply on the Olympic roster.
Doughty looks like late-career Duncan Keith out there now … he can’t keep up and so he clutches and grabs everything in sight. The NHL refs let him get away because he is and always has been one of the whiniest players ever.
IIHF refs won’t care and will be nailing him with penalties all day long if he is in the starting lineup.
Good comp.
Doughty remains the #1D on a top 5 defensive team in the league.
All his underlying stats are positive as they have been throughout his career.
https://moneypuck.com/player.htm?p=8474563
The team plays good defense. forwards all but in to collapsing in the slot and no cheating.
Good for them.
The d group is not a top 5 d group more like bottom 5.
There is no evidence to support that claim.
In fact…
xGA/60
Anderson – Doughty 1.91 – 3rd in the NHL
Edmunson – Clarke 2.06 – 12th
Dumolin – Ceci 2.58 – 45th
While the 3rd pair is definitely weaker it is in the same range as the Oilers top pair.
Of course team defensive play is a factor but it would not mask a bottom 5 group as you suggest.
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm
Ya. Just my opinion I don’t have numbers to support it. Edmunson/ Ceci / Dumoulin don’t impress me. Anderson/ doughty I’d be ok with as a second pairing. Clarke is a great young player certainly could be a top pairing guy.
I believe there are 8 NHL referees being brought over.
There was originally some intel that games where both sides have over 50% NHL players would be guaranteed al NHL officials but they don’t have quite enough to guarantee that but the clear intent and agreement is games with mostly NHL players will have mostly NHL officiating…..
Standings in the Pacific paint a rosy-ish picture but Trying to look for signs in the underlying numbers that this team has turned it around 5v5 which I believe to be their path the playoff success. Eh…I dunno. Maybe?
xG @ 50.6% (13) for the year, 52% last 25 games and 53.5% in the last 10 which scrapes into the Top 10. But that’s our best stat.
All other fancies for full, 25game and 10 game sections are middling or worse.
GF% in the last 10 is 43%.
No signs yet of a sleeping 5v5 giant.
Yeah no question they’re still retooling. I think the pieces and the moves are there to set the team up for success this postseason. Will be interesting to see what the active roster is after the TDL.
SB said it would take until Feb Mar to sort things out after making 9 changes in the offseason
Someone to play 3C has to be the top priority at the trade deadline.
Sure but it seems impossible the Oilers will have really any cap space and will most likely be money in and money out – bought to see a McCann, Coyle, ROR, Kotkaniemi, etc.
Maybe Samanski is that guy this year – also tough to see that getting the runway to play out.
Knoblauch’s decision-making freezes at the times he is needed most.
Leaving his exhausted top players out for practically an entire OT.
Being apparently physically unable to write anyone but 97-29-93 to start the shootout.
Thankfully it is a January game against LA, but the same thing shows up when they need him to read and react in the playoffs. He’s mostly frozen. That’s one of the reasons an excellent hockey team can play a half dozen horrible hockey games in the Finals between the last two years.
The talent gets them a long damn way. The Coach has to help push them over the top with timing and optimization. He’s never shown that capability.
None of them have in the McDavid era.
I disagree on exhausted players. At 1:34 they took a timeout before the PP. Connor scores what should have been the winner 8 seconds later and the players wait another 5 min while
its reviewed. I believe there was one more stoppage in there before the end of the game.
These guys are top end atheletes. Giving them 5 min to recover before the final minute of play was plenty of time.
Hard to argue with the oilers pp. However I giving the 2nd unit the last 20 seconds essentially reduces the pp to 1:40 because it takes time to get setup.
It may make sense to give the top unit until the first loss of ozone possession after 45 ish seconds then go pp2 until first loss of ozone possession or whistle. Then back to pp1.
If pp 1 is fresh and on ice as the penalty expires it can somewhat extend the pp to over 2 minutes if they have ozone possession.
Colorado used to do this as well as many a few other teams.
But again pretty hard to argue with the pp as is.
Having walman back will likely give coach more confidence. Nurse is not a pp option.
I’m sure Knoblauch wants to win and so do Connor & Leon. They’re thorough-breds. I doubt you would do anything different if you were coach.
No chance those 3 shoot in the SO. He’s also said they don’t practice it, which is beyond dumb. Win the simple, high leverage bits in any sport or activity.
Kapanen-Roslovic-Stastney as the 2nd OT unit.
Hyman’s not for 3v3 OT.
I could go on…
If I was the coach I’d be concerned about the rest of the players that have skill to chip in. After watching the Duo get closed down twice in the finals in the later games. In the NHL 2-3 players don’t win you a Cup
Yes This is the concern. The secondary and lower players need their offensive touches perhaps more than the top guys.
Eventually they will need to provide offense. Or at least momentum
Silly comment with absolutely no facts to support your comment .Frozen ??? Come on
this is not about playing some board game where you move players around on the table. It is about wining games based on the various talents you have on the bench, That takes good coaching and thats what KK excels at .
This coach is one of the best all time at doing it .He has one of the best winning percentages in the league. But I suppose you could post your phone number and maybe KK will call topic for advice .
I think coach should have/could have worked to get Roslovic a shift in OT (in particular with Hyman having a tough game) but the Oilers dominate the entirety of OT:
Shot Attempts: 8-1
HD Shot Attempts: 3-0
Scoring Changes: 6-1
I know you wrote consecutive posts last night criticizing every decision Knob made and deriding him for not doing what you think is the right thing to do, but his decisions in OT were clearly in line with trying to win the game and they are unlucky not to have done so.
Very positive look at it. I’m a big picture type of thinker, I can accept whatever plays out for the McDavid Oilers, but I think they should be more dominant, and that they should win championships. It’s the expectation of all top pro sports teams, but when you have several all time players together it normally happens. Wayne, Mario, Sid all have their hardware, in multiples, in at least two different eras
The slow start was expected by most including the coach and GM. Many teams have had an uneven start for various reasons. But the cream is rising as they get their rhythms going, even if the compressed schedule has hindered separation in the standings
The Avs are still manhandling teams on a frequent basis, and Tampa is starting to find more dominant victories. The Oilers had a run of them but have cooled off and still wobble game to game. Other than the Avs and a few hot streaks like the Sabres, teams don’t win every game, but the better teams have their structure down and look organized at this point
In the game I saw them make everything look hard outside of the usual few exceptional individual plays. Very disconnected for a large part of the game. You shouldn’t ever count out The Duo and Bouch, but it usually takes a team to win, and it’s not the team that is getting their wins. Big picture that doesn’t bode well for the point of the whole excersize
Knoblauch needs to get them connected and finding a stable game that looks like the Oilers pushing forward for the majority of the minutes. Because that is what it should look like given who they have, and is how they will win a Cup
This is still audition time, all over the roster. Ingram, Emberson, Regula, Howard, Savoie, Kapanen, Lazar, Frederic. That’s plenty of uncertainty on the roster. They aren’t there yet. Still time.
They’re preparing for when the real season starts, the playoffs.
There is. I suppose I’m not that confident in the HC having the chops. He’s a good coach, I’m not sure that’s enough for the job at hand
These were KK’s Numbers last year after week 5 of the playoffs .But Im sure there are lots of folks on here that could do much better ..Maybe post your resumes so we can see them
Knoblauch is the winningest active regular-season coach, with a .656 points percentage, and also sits first in the playoffs among active coaches, at .639
Draisaitl’s line was fire and McDavid’s not so much? Wanna know why? Evan Bouchard (and Ekholm). Especially early I noticed Leon was getting that pairing and it becomes that pure Oiler magic. Five men working in perfect synchronicity until they find and expose that crack.
Then you see the same shift start with either other pairing and eventually Nurse or someone gets cornered and floats one into the goalies glove; end shift.
Not complaining more appreciating how sublime that pairing is.
Also didn’t help that Hyman seemed drunk last night.
It’s key, though. Nurse either needs Bouchard or to play the third pair. OR Walman works on Nurse’s RH side of they trade for a RH blue.
Nurse is the player they signed Frederic to be. Maybe he should play in the bottom six. He’s not shut down or a puck mover. And in the playoffs for two important runs was completely useless 5v5. He likes the offensive game which is a tell as to where he might find his game. Hiding him behind Bouchard doesnt make him better. Just puts a shine on his shares.
Nurse needs to focus on just one thing and that’s simply being a reliable defender.
MacT still loves Nurse, I’m not sure why. He hasn’t become what I believe they thought he would be, which is a big mean mobile defensive defender that didn’t chop the puck square. He’s stuck in no man’s land with his proven ability, no stand out anything and a fat contract. The only hope is the perfect partner that stays healthy
Bouchard floats all boats, he really does.
Hyman struggled last night for sure – fighting the puck.
Walman and Jarry coming back this week will really help management evaluate the roster. The D is the most interesting because it is hard to see where the optimal add is for upgrade or depth. You could make arguments for RD or LD but the numbers game also suggests you’d lose a current D to trade or waivers which complicates the waters
I think the d is not at all a problem. An upgrade would have to be a substantial player with money in money out. Nurse for Morgan Reilly type. Very unlikely.
Changing Regula for a vet I think would come back to haunt. When Walman is back I’d say we’re set.
For the playoffs, it’d really be nice to add the cover that Kulak provided the last 3 years. If a top 4 D goes down, then you need to play one of Stastney, Emberson, or Regula in your top 4 (likely with Nurse) and I think that would be a major weakness to exploit for teams
When Walman returns everything will be set and Regula is an ideal 7th defenseman.
They only have 6D on the active roster now.
Walman comes in, Regula comes out and is 7D – no-one needs to go anywhere from the current group of 7.
Edmonton Oilers — without both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (5v5)
Small sample, but the w/o 97-29 group has a 63 percent expected goal share in the last four games. Now, they are 1-4 goals, and we know that scoring goals requires skill, but I think there are some good signs here.
I think much of that is the third line spending a good portion of time “looking good” in the offensive zone but a threesome prone to mistakes, multiple over the course of the game, that are ending up in a goal against per game.
That third line is going to need to score some goals here soon or the actual numbers are going to start looking ugly.