This is the ‘rolling top 20’ Oilers prospects from the winter of 2016. All of Taylor Hall, Nuge, Nail Yakupov, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid had already graduated (50 NHL games for forwards, 25 for defencemen) and we were left staring at very few future NHL players and zero impact NHL players.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner and his deployment. He has more to give, but needs a better center to get it done. Article is here.
THE 2013 FARM WORKERS
Here’s a look at the top 20 prospects from 2013, in a different way. I have written a farm workers post for over a decade now and will write another in the spring. I thought it would be a good time to have a look at things. Let’s start with the 2013 FW post in its entirety:
- Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. You’ll find the odd goalie or defenseman but unlike the orginal 6 era very few teams have enough depth and free agency makes it impossible to keep them on the farm. Which is a good thing. BARONS 12-13: Yann Danis (31) got into three games, perfectly matching hockey’s past.
- Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2009). Barons 12-13: If we exclude Hall and co from the lockout, you bet. Even guys like Paajarvi are working on something (although he’s made solid progress, a reflection of the wisdom of keeping most of your prospects in the AHL for a significant portion of their entry level deal).
- We shouldn’t expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano.Whatever that line in the sand is, that line sticks. BARONS 12-13: I think Paajarvi is going to have a long career, but that’s a guess and he has certainly played enough in the AHL (72 games now) for there to be a gap in GP compared to kids who never played in the minors.
- No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. It is a rare thing for a player to spend a couple of seasons in the minors and then go on to a 1,000 NHL game calibre career. Barons 12-13: Paajarvi’s played 163 at age 21, he’s certainly ahead of most AHL players at that age. I think he might be that rare item, but we’re still a little ways from knowing if he’ll be an everyday player on a contending team. Let’s mark him down as a possible outlier and check back each season until he’s 25. If he’s 400+ games by then, I think he’ll have a good shot at 1,000 NHL game.
- If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. The players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. Barons 12-13: Sure, agreed. I think Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Marincin, Lander and now Rajala have done enough to be considered NHL prospects. Pitlick, Hamilton, Pelss, Davidson, Roy, Bunz etc are not yet there but have at least a little time.
- Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. Barons 12-13: The obvious recent examples are Jeff Petry and this past season Justin Schultz, I think Taylor Fedun is probably on the outside looking in but that’s not established. Young C Andrew Miller wil be a player to follow from this category next season. This is an area Edmonton should be extremely aggressive in moving forward, it’s a great way to increase the depth of that 20-22 year old organizational cluster.
- A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. It also tells us we already have our answer on Colin McDonald. Barons 12-13: Last time it was Hartikainen, Omark, etc and now it’s Cornet, Arcobello, Rajala, Lander. Interesting that Colin McDonald changed the answer. Good for him.
- If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summerwe can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list gets a haircut every summer. Barons 12-13: Obvious flushes would appear to be Antti Tyrvainen, Alex Plante, Niko Hovinen, Colten Teubert. They haven’t completely cut ties with Linus Omark, but that’s likely to happen this summer too.
- Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. Barons 12-13: Hartikainen, Lander and maybe down the line guys like Marincin are the ones with the best chance to find their way. The AHL is a lot about grinding the flaws out of the players and making them into useful role players for NHL coaching staffs. Play the role, keep the job. Ad-lib like Taylor Hall? See you in OKC. Oilers have passed on skilled men like Schremp and Omark over their recent history, mostly because the really talented offensive forwards don’t spend any time in the AHL.
- For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. Barons 12-13: Omark didn’t make it, we’ll see about Rajala. The odds are stacked against him in all kinds of ways, not the least of which is the ridiculous NHL depth chart on the wings.
- The future NHLERS are……..If I’m a betting man, these are the winners from the current group to be the new Cleary and Chimera. Barons 12-13: I choose Paajarvi, Lander, Hartikainen and Marincin. I know that’s a lot (four), but Paajarvi is a 10th overall selection, Lander and Marincin are second rounders and Hartikainen is one of those guys who beat his draft number. He’s 52 games into an NHL career that should never have happened based on where he was selected (6th round).
THE CURRENT FARM WORKERS
- Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. You’ll find the odd goalie or defenseman but unlike the orginal 6 era very few teams have enough depth and free agency makes it impossible to keep them on the farm. Which is a good thing. CONDORS 2024-25: There are five Condors who are 30 and over, and one of them (Drake Caggiula) is back in the NHL! I spend a ridiculous amount of time looking for outliers like this, so do wonder if the other four (Collin Delia, Josh Brown, Seth Griffith, Connor Carrick) will join the party. The Caggiula recall is quite the deal, historically.
- Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2009). CONDORS 24-25: True for sure, I don’t expect Matthew Savoie to spend this and next year in the minors and all others are in the meandering category. I will make note here of Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe, who are matriculating toward a possible NHL future. Men chosen outside the first round have to earn it in a way first-round picks do not (unless MacT is the coach), but these two men have a chance.
- We shouldn’t expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano. What ever that line in the sand is, that line sticks. CONDORS 2024-25:Oilers don’t really have any players in this category, although on the surface Savoie would qualify. I don’t think he’ll play enough AHL games to impact his NHL career GP in a meaningful way.
- No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. It is a rare thing for a player to spend a couple of seasons in the minors and then go on to a 1,000 NHL game calibre career. CONDORS 2024-25: I believe it was a credible reading of the Paajarvi future in that 2014 look back, and Savoie fits this description about as well. Matthew Savoie has played in one NHL game, and has 10 points in 13 AHL games. He’s going to reach a point-per-game (barring injury) at some point this season, and then it’s only a matter of time.
- If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. The players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. CONDORS 2024-24: From the current group of players 22 and under, I would say all of Savoie, Grubbe, Wanner, Matvey Petrov and Roby Jarventie are prospects of interest. That leaves James Stefan, an AHL rookie, as a player who we can question. He hasn’t proven what he is either way, to be honest, so this isn’t a negative thing to say. We don’t know what we don’t know, is all. Scored a goal last night, so that’s a good arrow.
- Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. CONDORS 2024-25: This area was tailor made for Noah Philp. He has had an unusual career but arrived in the NHL the other night as a man with a skill set that is workable and repeatable. What a terrific turn for player and organization. Do you know how rare it is to have an extreme need at the NHL level while also having a real plug-and-play option in that exact area at the same time? One in a million shot, folks.
- A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. It also tells us we already have our answer on Colin McDonald. CONDORS 2024-25: Time has taught me that they’re almost all tweeners. I’ll list Grubbe, Petrov, Wanner, Stefan, Carl Berglund, James Hamblin, Noel Hoefenmayer, Phil Kemp, Ben Gleason, Cameron Wright, Cam Dineen, Lane Pederson. That leaves Philp, Savoie, Jarventie and Rodrigue.
- If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summer, we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list gets a haircut every summer. CONDORS 2024-25: Roby Jarventie is RFA in the summer, Edmonton traded for him during the Jeff Jackson era and that’s a tell. Any prospect procured by the current management team is automatically an insider, and who is more valuable to the team than the prospect pool on the day of arrival for the management leader. It seems to strange, but this has held true ever since the world began. Blood is thicker than water.
- Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. CONDORS 2024-25: First name I thought of? Philp. Savoie is the best prospect to play for the Condors this year, I just don’t think he’s an AHL player really. Young Jarventie also deserves a mention, with a giant asterisk around his injury history. These two men are mature physically and have a range of skills. Absolute hockey dynamite in the AHL and those two could land in the NHL for years if things break right.
- For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. He spent time in the minors before becoming an NHL scoring star without ever learning five percent of what Dave Keon knew about playing the game without the puck. CONDORS 2024-25: Omark was the example in 2013, damnable management at the time didn’t see what he could become. Omark could have played successfully for years in the NHL. Matt Savoie isn’t a pure offensive player. I love the sentence Red Line wrote about him in his draft year: “sees the game well, doesn’t have to work hard in some areas because he’s never chasing.” Music!!! You could include Petrov here, but he isn’t the kind of dynamic talent delivered by Walton. He’s a little shy of Schremp, too.
- The future NHLERS are……..If I’m a betting man, these are the winners from the current group to be the new Cleary and Chimera. CONDORS 2024-25: I always choose too many, because I allow my heart to get ahead of my brain. For me, Savoie and Philp are the strongest bets, so I’ll limit myself to those two men.
SUMMARY
The Oilers are going through another change in direction at the AHL level. Part of the change comes from where the team is drafting, or more accurately not drafting. Edmonton’s scouts don’t need to file on the top 50 prospects (although I’m sure they do) because the team isn’t going to be in the range when these young men are off the board.
On the positive side, it’s so much easier to project the current player types into the NHL in a workable role. Noah Philp doesn’t need to push for a No. 2 center job, he’s ideal for the third or fourth line. Olivier Rodrigue (who played well last night) doesn’t need to save the world ala Stuart Skinner fall 2022 and 2023, he merely has to be ready when the call comes.
Savoie is the star of this show, he was on the top line doing good things last night and I expect more of the same in the days to come.
A word about Jarventie to close. His draft day scouting report suggested he had good size and hands, but the boots were a worry. We can add injury to that list now. We can also say that he touched the puck more often last night than Xavier Bourgault did in a month of Sundays last fall.
It gives me no pleasure in saying it, because math liked Bourgault on his draft day and through his junior career. However, when you are drafting pure skill outside the top 10 names each season, it’s vitally important to make sure the player has the size and determination to break on through to the other side. Kailer Yamamoto is a small player too, and he sacrificed his body constantly to make the plays I’m speaking of, resulting in what looks like a short career in the NHL. I’d make that bet every time. Important to know what kind of motor you’re drafting. Jarventie gets to plays. The foot speed will make itself known as we see him more, but he has all kinds of determination and that counts, too.
Coach confirms Stu “will be our goalie” – I think the question was with respect to Sunday’s game but it was tough to hear.
Coach mentions to their days has Hyman at more expected goals at this time than last year.
Of course, he won’t finish as consistently as last year but his offensive game isn’t suffering age-related (or other) regression.
Can the hands “be going” due to age? Maybe but I don’t think that’s the case. I don’t think he finishes due to “great hands” to start with.
I think Zack continues to be a legit 35-40 goal scorer and likely ends up near or in that range.
He had 9 points last October compared to 2 this go around. -7. 1 powerplay assist last October to 0 pp points this time around. So it’s mostly at 5×5 where his production has fallen off so far.
McDavid 9 to 10 this go around. +1
Draisaitl is at 13 points each October. 0
Nuge has gone from 7 to 4 -3. 3 pp points last October to 1 this time around. So he’s 1 5×5 point off of last years start.
Henrique 5 to 1 -4
Bouchard 9 to 7 -2
Ekholm 1 to 9 wooot +8
Skinner 9 to 5 -4
Janmark 0 to 2 +2
Brown 0 to 1 +1
Nurse 2 to 4 +2
Kulak 1 to 3 +2
Perry 6 to 3 -3
Ryan 1 to 0 -1
Hyman isn’t even doing his big swooping power circles with the puck. Hopefully Hyman has a strong November and gets it going.
There once was a time when Oiler fans understood that anyone playing with Gretzky was being zoomed, big time
Kurri had scored 40 plus goals the 6 previous seasons to The Trade. He netted 44 the first season after, then 33 and never scored that many again hitting 30 one more time in 8 more seasons
Zach has averaged 25 G per season including the 54 G outlier in his 8 full seasons. His most common linemates the last few seasons are Connor and Leon. His calling card is his motor, health, and that he can play with top players and not drag them too much. He got 36 and 27 previous to last year, his top before were two 21 G seasons, zoomed as he should be
He’s not a typical first line forward in terms of skill. He’s not a great shooter (all NHL players can wire a nice one from time to time), doesn’t have great vision, isn’t a strong play maker. The only time Connor and Leon get to play with league level high end forwards is when they play together. MacKinnon gets to play with Rantanen all the time for example
If Connor could play with Leon all the time, or they had better wingers for him, he’d be pushing 80’s numbers I think. I tallied and posted here a while back that despite Zach scoring 54 last season, the line created 3 more goals than the previous season, they just traded goals among each other. Connor would need more talent on his wings to take another step, which I think he could with the right help
I don’t think Zach is regressing yet, I think he’s showing who he is as a player. Because Connor has been cold (for him) Zach isn’t getting the usual zoom. Nuge hasn’t been a strong 5v5 player in years, gets his hot streaks, and he’s also stone cold which makes it worse for Zach, to start out this season
Gene tweeting that coach said today that McDavid could be closer to 2 weeks than 3……
Listed first hand “probably closer to two weeks” is the direct quote.
They do want to make sure that they don’t bring him back and it lingers. He did NOT confirm that it’s a high ankle sprain or similar type of injury that tends to linger.
I think we can all see that one of the weaker areas of Podz’s game is finishing ability and puck skills in general. I have likened him to Foegele in that respect.
Stauff tweeting out that Podz puts in a ton of extra work at practice and stays late to work on puck touches with the assistant coaches.
If you have a first round pick don’t waste it on a player from Q unless it’s an exceptional talent, Much better bets elsewhere
I think over valuing their inflated scoring is the mistake. That league is consistently above the rest of the CHL in goals/game, should be prorated to equalize.
Hemsky was a solid bet for a first rounder from the Q, but that was also an æon ago.
Very impressive debut for Jarventie last night. Seems like a smart player who is good on the boards and likes to camp out in front of the opposition team’s net.
He matched Bourgualt’s and Lavoie’s point totals in one game (each of the former Condors are 1-1-2 through 7 and 6 games, respectively, Lavoie a -5).
He’s only 22 yet he’s played with men for years auditioning 4 years ago in the A.H.L . I expect to see him after Christmas if he performs and stays healthy in Bakersfield. I wonder why Ottawa gave up on him. Anyhow uncle Staios must of liked what he seen in Bourgault a few years ago when he was still knee deep in the Oilers organization.
True, he has experience in the North American pro game but 4 seasons is a bit exaggerated.
Its really been 3 and only one full.
Games played by year:
4 (after coming over from Liiga)
70
40 (30 points)
22 (20 points)
He’s missed a TON of hockey the last two seasons.
Last night was very encouraging but lets see how he gets through the back to backs lets alone the next few months.
His top game has clear potential for the current lineup but one game at a time for now.
You answered my question the missed games has to be the main reason the Senators gave up on him. Any idea on how he is when it comes to being defensively conscious? I also wonder why Bourgault development torpedoed? These are the kind of small trades Sather used to make. It remains to be seen how the McLeod for Savoie trade pans out but if Savoie is the goods we should see spurts of this shortly.
I actually think that Drake may be a “better fit” on the team now than he was in his first go-around.
Lets not forget what Drake was back then – there was ALOT of skating around fast but accomplishing little and he was a poor 2-way player. He could produce a bit when put in the top 6 but generally helped “give it all back” with two way play.
I think he might be a more mature player now knowing with certainty that he is a depth player who has to be on the right side of pucks and ensure his line is not getting scored on. With that type of acknowledgement, his quickness and motor can help on the 4th line.
I liked his game on Thursday (and, from watching him as a Condor last year, when healthy, he’s a high end AHL player).
I always felt that tag was unfair. “skate fast, accomplish little” Every team needs these players. The faster they move, the more time and space they take away, the more pressure they create.. There are no metrics for this. Skill players need the speedsters so they can find quiet ice and get a shot away.
Drake was not great defensively and the whole score first, defence second afflicted the whole team.
I have not watched him play, but if he can add some energy we should take it at this point.
Totally agree. But it’s important to remember that can’t come in isolation.
Holloway’s scoring in his draft year was a worry. So far he’s scoring like a tweener in the NHL.
But boy, does he have a motor.
You know who else has a strong motor?
Drake Caggiula.
The scouts need to be selecting for a range of skills that are projectable in the NHL.
I think the same. The less a regular prospect has to overcome the more likely they can make it. Drafting outliers seriously reduces the chances they can take a role for the team. Battle level, puck skills, skating, size, good hockey IQ
Games played is what most look at in evaluating drafting success. To me it’s being able to make the team, stay in the league and fill whatever role successfully, become a useful full time NHL player
I feel sorry for Yama. But he did himself well battling to play 4 full NHL seasons. I didn’t like the pick at the time, and other than the little run he had with Leon always saw him as a tweener. 152 lbs has almost no chance of making the league let along staying in it. He’s just turned 26 so he should have a nice run in Europe if he chooses that
Holloway had 2 wrist surgeries after showing he was more than capable of scoring in his last college season. Lost development time and long term effects from that and other subsequent injuries contributed significantly to his slower than hoped progress.
And Holloway currently has more goals so far this season than all Oilers except Leon.
Holloway’s injury issues, in a way, make him a bit of a comparable to Jarventie. I understand projecting him to the NHL, but my guess is the Oilers want to see him healthy for a long stretch before bringing him up.
Don’t get me wrong, I was one of Hollywood’s fans. I would have preferred Bourque, Jarvis, or Mercer at the time (and said so), but I’m not making the picks.
It wasn’t me specifically calling into question his suitability on a scoring line — our fine host himself said often Holloway’s draft year numbers were worthy of raising an eyebrow. Wright’s penchant for drafting high motor athletes with slim boxcars is probably one of the key factors that sent him out to pasture.
I think it’s fair to acknowledge that scoring often goes hand in hand with opportunity. And the Blues have far more room in their top-6 than Edmonton. Happy to see Dylan score, we’ll see how it shakes out compared to the likes of King Leon by the end of the season. My hunch is they won’t be in the same zip code for long.
Holloways biggest strength, is that he was drafted an Oiler. We were behind him, and speaking for myself, I loved the way he played. I think his speed and skill set complimented our top players. He was a keeper.
Its not that his skill set was irreplaceable, a lot has to do with the fact we were growing fond of him. He let us down in that regard.
I worry about Savoie’s size and durability, but in the AHL now finally with an excellent scoring winger in Jarventie, watch him really rack up the points over the next 20 games.
Jarventie is a real talent, he will be scoring goals by the bushel, once he has a couple more games under his belt. I’ve had my eye on this player a long time.
Don’t be surprised (best case scenario) if Skinner is moved and Jarventie takes his place in the line-up in 15-20 games. He is a very talented scorer, is not slow of foot (an upgrade on Skinner in the speed, size and physicality department) and as ludicrous as it sounds, has a comparable shot. This most likely won’t happen, but I see an alternate dimension where this is plausible, even moreso with green bananas Ken out of the picture.
Grubbe will be an NHL player one day, at minimum in a Nathan Walker-type of usage, total team player, but with even more utility.
I also see Joel Mattaa having a real shot in 2 years, but with a new GM in town this could mean he doesn’t get signed (this is balanced out by a prospect desert).
I would be shocked by this.
As of today this seems unlikely.
My message is that Jarventie is a tremendous talent and if everything breaks right (and I mean everything) this is a possible scenario. He has NHL experience, the only other LHS forward on the Bakersfield roster who has NHL experience is Hamblin (I am not counting Cagguila, who is on the NHL roster).
Jarventie and Hamblin are in completely different situations (age, contract status, roles, deployment). If called up, Jarventie will be in the top 6, perhaps top 9 (which would be a shame), Hamblin would come in for a 4th line role.
You can disagree, but I believe in the player, I’ve never been sold on Skinner’s fit in Edmonton (he is not the type of player the Oilers need in the playoffs).
Jarventie has AHL experience from his 18 year old season. He is just getting started on his 5th AHL season. He is 22 years old and has a history of scoring goals in professional hockey (76 goals in 3 pro leagues since his 17 year old season) 38 in the AHL. I predict that he will score 10-16 goals over his next 20 AHL games.
Just saying out loud that I can see it from where I sit.
You had an eye on Jarventie before he was Oiler property? I love the optimism, hope you’re right.
The one negative I’ve heard from Ottawa based writers was he lacked physicality for his size, would you agree?
Likewise.
And…why Skinner?
Lots of talk about how they split the tenders Sunday/Monday. No right answer, and arguments each way, but clean towards Skinner in Sunday.
We know they will split and not sitting Skinner for 2 straight games takes away the “risk” of adding to a potential confidence issue with the starting goalie and shuts down legit talk of “a goalie controversy”.
Not to mention, Skinner has good career results vs. the flames and, if one thinks that Pickard is the “better goalie” at this time, well, Jersey is the more dynamic team on paper.
Skinner was poor against the Jackets, one of 19 players that got ice time but let’s not forget he had a string of strong starts before that.
Let’s get Skinner back in the net, he is the 1A on this team.
Let’s get four points and roll.
Fwiw, Pickard got both starts against NJD last season, & won both with a Sv% of .923 (52 shots, 4 GA)
You would think Skinner the Edmonton boy will get the battle of Alberta game and Capt Pickard will get Jersey who’s number he has. Yet you never know with Kris who once in awhile doesn’t go by the book.
Prospectigrade!
Again, the number of NAmateurs in play is in double digits.
A career-high four point night (1+3) for Akey yesternight puts him at almost a point-per-game pace. After just one point in his first five games, he has rung up eight in the five since.
Day-man did well to limit the OHL’s top offense to three GA last night, but his Birds of Fire were stymied at the other end. He and the newly returned Captain Clattenburg endeavour to do better this eve.
The Vermonters each have a goal so far this year, but both being seniors, this is their last chance to earn contracts.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 1:30 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Pelican Narrows time.
“Yesternight” . . . very creative, brilliant.
Ha! Pelican Narrows, I’ve heard of it.
Wakely sustained an ankle injury that will keep him out at least the rest of the weekend.
Pelican Narrows is “location is on Pelican Lake about 120 km (75 mi) northwest of Creighton by the Hanson Lake Road and Highway 135” according to Wikipedia.
Sure, of course! 🙂
Too bad about Wakely.
That was a very fun game to watch in Bako last night – rare where an AHL game is not half special teams and there is real flow.
Top line of Jarventie/Savoie/Griffith was fire and it was led by Jarventie. Couldn’t imagine a more heartening debut.
Very intrigued to see how Jarventie does in back to backs.
Likely not able for watch in real time. Wife and I have barely seen each other for a few months and, with no Oilers game tonight, sweetie night likely takes precedence over AHL hockey…… we’ll see.
Surprised I’m having to call into question your dedication, after all these years.
And here I thought you were a team player…