I mentioned yesterday the New Jersey Devils were a tough out for Edmonton on the second half of a back-to-back. The Oilers lost, and that should come as no surprise. The Oilers showed up, and some of the underperformers earlier in the year did some encouraging things. I suspect fans won’t be happy with the result, and will blame the usual suspects, but I’m going to suggest there’s something happening here. In the absence of the captain, this team is finding its voice, finding its style. That’s a good thing.
The Athletic article today is about Evan Bouchard offer sheets and Ty Emberson’s free-agent opportunity. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 1-1-0, 2 points in 2 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 6-6-1, 13 points in 13 games
I had last night as a loss, but the Vegas Golden Knights game this week as a win. The Oilers stayed in the game for some time against New Jersey, but once down 2-0 the Devils closed up shop and that’s all she wrote. You can get good things from a loss, and I think we’re seeing a repeatable game by this group.
The unusual rotation of Kulak-Nurse-Emberson was on display again last night and does appear to be working. It’s a true MacGyver move, and credit to the coaching staff. I don’t think it’s here for a long time, but the early results have lifted the overall totals for that group.
Adam Henrique showed signs of life offensively, that’s a terrific turn. His line had things going in a good direction, and NST had him with 4 HDSC and three shots. If he can deliver that kind of result consistently, the pucks will go in.
There were points in the game where you could have suggested Edmonton earned the lead, but it was not to be on this night. I don’t have anything bad to say about the effort, or the execution. Sometimes luck is a lady to the other team, and New Jersey is a Stanley contender. Suspect the Oilers will get them next time.
THE NUMBERS
All manner of positives here, though I suspect the beatings will continue until morale improves in regard to the goaltending and various acid-verbal targets like Darnell Nurse. This Edmonton group did good things before fading in the third period. A quick note on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: I thought he brought more of what we’ve come to know from him in last night’s game, another encouraging sign.
I think the next step for Stan Bowman is to find a third-pairing partner for Ty Emberson. It’s a small, small sample, but Nurse with Kulak is doing some fine things. All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick:
- Nurse/Kulak: 35 minutes, 0-1 goals, 25-10 shots, 72 percent expected goals
- Nurse w/o Kulak: 192 minutes, 5-9 goals, 92-104 shots, 42 percent expected goals
- Kulak w/o Nurse: 173 minutes, 4-7 goals, 97-69 shots, 60 percent expected goals
That seems to be a solution worth monitoring, although the experts tell us to wait for 200 minutes before beginning to draw strong conclusions. While we are on the subject of small samples, the brilliant Puck IQ is pumping out data like Elton John pumped out the hits in the 1970’s. Here’s the current state of affairs five-on-five:
The top pairing is majestic, Nurse is over 50 percent Dangerous Fenwick and a little below level rel. Brett Kulak, who is playing quite a lot against elites, is firing like Charlie Watts on Midnight Rambler at Madison Square Gardens on November 27, 1969. I think it reasonable to suggest Kulak-Nurse going forward. Puck IQ has them playing just 12 minutes together versus elites at five-on-five, delivering 62.8 percent Dangerous Fenwick and 7.09 percent DFF Corsi Rel. Music!!
The Lowdown hits the airwaves and the world wide web today at noon, Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us to talk about Edmonton’s miserable special teams and the McDavid return date. We’ll have a pile of MLB signing news and discuss all things CFL and NFL. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Max Jones on waivers. He could help re-add the physicality and speed to the bottom-6 that the team lost following the loss of Holloway. By no means a solution to all problems, but could be a solution to one!
Pickard was unlucky on his first shot he was deep in his net because of the Devil forward presence he still made the save but it unluckily popped of the post and in. I hate when the 1st shots on our goalies are sneaky shots. Anyhow can’t blame the goaltending if you can’t score, they had plenty of time to tie it at one and change the momentum.
Oilers now 10-18 GF/GA with Bouchard off the ice. Shooting 4.61%. Crazy.
Caggiula re-assigned to the Condors – maybe he should have just stayed in Calgary (where they play tonight)…..
Oilers will stop operating in LTIR and start accruing cap space again – of course, much less than before with Philp on the roster.
Im really glad he got the call up, he earned it in training camp.
Id like to see Nurse Kulak and Dermott with Emberson for a couple games. If Nurse Kulak looks good but Dermott doesn’t, id give Gleason a few games. Would like to save the assets and cap space for the 2RD solution at the deadline and exhaust all in house options – lets you see what you have in event of injury or poor play in the playoffs too.
Might want to google “oilers trade Ben Gleason “
Im suprised a little. So they are trading a leftie for a rightie who might develop?
Any more info?
How about Josh Brown? How has he been playing? Certainly he’s going to get a look as Stetcher and Dermott fade.
It fixed the veteran issue they had in the Ahl. They had to rotate their veterans because there is a limit how many you can play and now won’t have to.
Brown has been meh in the AHL.
They are flush on the right side and shallow on the left side in Bako.
Bouchard is starting to feel it he’s a better stick handler and creator then I initially thought. He’s always been a point magnet and it would be a shame to lose this talent because of the Cap.
Hot take: Bouchard is as important as McD to the Oilers. In fact, I think the Oilers would struggle more with Bouchard out of the line up than McD.
Cap likely to be near or at or over $100MM when McDavid’s next contract kicks in, and rising.
They took major steps this off-season to ensure they did NOT over-cap commit to depth players and non-core players (although Arvy isn’t looking like value for $4MM yet) in order to ensure they could sign the core pieces.
They can make it work with projected salaries based on the 800 Capfriendly and PP rosters I did for fun. It will be tight and pro scouting will have to be on top of their games. If JJ or SB can talk someone into moving it would be easier. The Rangers did it with Trouba, it’s not out of the question
First time watching a game on Amazon Prime. Did anyone else notice the poorer HD video quality during the live action? Commercials and Intermission HD quality was fine, but found the live action is not as good as the regular SN HD broadcast. Watching it on a 55in screen
Cancel it. Listen to it on the radio.
Only if Cam Moon is doing the broadcast. Jack Michaels (who is fine on TV) is brutal on radio, it’s impossible to follow the game.
You may have had a setting or two on your Prime account configured to lower quality somehow. Mine was clearer and better than SN for sure. Noticeably so.
I was watching on a 55 or 60 and I thought the prime broadcast picture and sound blew Sportsnet out of the water.
Commentary on the other hand…
It was nice. They called the play and kept up. Play-by-play instead of rambling for a change.
I think LMHF is right, this is the single comment I’ve seen on the Oilers interwebs about inferior video quality
I enjoyed the change. Format, broadcast, color. I would welcome it here and there.
Nurse seems really engaged the past few games. Considerably more jump in his step, puck transporting, and eliminating players against the boards. And he seems to be looking for plays in the o-zone versus just shooting it on net.
Henri and Nuge took a slight step forward. If either of these two can get back to established levels, we are in decent shape up front.
I think Coffey is trying to get him to be more of a driver aka Big Bird you see glimpses but I wish Nurse would go end to end and not to the outside but drive right down the pipe which will cause chaos defensively. Nurse is big can skate and is a handful when going full steam he needs to return to his junior ways and become a driver.
The Nuge had an excellent game for sure
CoH had Nuge as a 4. I thought he and Hyman were meh. Players with that experience should be better on the details and managing the puck
They had a few chances but that is expected from top 6 forwards. Hyman was going full Foegele and managing to be on the wrong side of the puck a fair bit. Too many miscues for me, I find Nuge and Hyman vary with defensive execution
The Oilers are 30th in GF/G and 18th in GA/G.
Obviously D and goaltending can improve but the lack of scoring is the real issue IMO. You cannot win in this league when you struggle to score two goals a game. I don’t know if it is tactics or just fluke but the goals for at even strength and on the PP is a huge issue.
Or primary issue I should say.
Oilers are shooting 5.74% at 5v5. Third lowest in the league.
NST has them at a 5v5 PDO of 0.969.
Just like their abysmal sh%, this run of bad luck won’t continue.
I bet a few guys pop in some goals, and the floodgates unleash reversion to the meat. It will be a bloodbath, and it will be spectacular.
When you’re hot, you’re hot, when you’re not, you’re not. I think even if Connor was playing, they probably still would have lost.
You mean there is no points for globetrotting the puck around the perimeter?? What??
Somebody better tell the team .
The D and G are average to below average overall, as expected.
Figure out the gosh darn special teams, Sweet Zombie Jesus
They lost in regulation so, nope, not happy with the result but, at the same time, I thought the team played fairly well, in particular in the first 40 minutes. Lack of finish is an issue (Henrique and, in particular, Podz, HAVE to bury that, but I thought they played well given the circumstance.
I do think the each of the first two goals were “meh” – not bad goals on Picks per so but stoppable shots. Jake Allen was making those saves all night, no?
Weren’t both goals due to Devils wide open in the slot with another Devil either in his crease or screening? Coverage was far more of an issue than the goaltending.
I didn’t say they were terrible goals but said both were definitely saveable and the type of save that Jake Allen was making routinely
Couldn’t agree more.
Since we traded JP there’s been a dearth of Finns.
Maybe it’s time to pull the trigger for the likes of Jokiharju, Armia, or perhaps a bit more of a spicy trade like Korpisalo? Depends on the desired area to upgrade, but there’s an argument to be made for more Finnish at each position.
Too early in the morning for bad jokes?
So Suomi.
After Christmas Jarventie.
Wishful thinking, but I’m not opposed to it if he earns a spot.
He’ll have to contend with the likes of Kane, and whomever his return pushes down the roster (and down to BAK).
Jake Allen was the 1st star for a reason. But they also just got home from a four-game road trip having won 3 of 4.
Needed more crashing of the net and point shots with traffic. Henrique had Allen dead to rights he’s been snakebit but he’s getting opportunities and he will score as he’s always had hands.
Didn’t see the game last night. I cancelled Prime thinking we didn’t need two movie channels, already having Netflix. Oh well, and they wouldn’t let me in on the free 30-day trial. Sounds to me as it was one of those games the scheduling had something to do with the result. I mean the Oilers literally just got home from a four-game road trip having played the night before in Calgary. While the Devils where a rested team. All things considered if they could have slipped anything past Allen they may have won. It doesn’t help when the Devils scored on their first shot on goal, I saw on the highlights Nurse pushing the devil player into Pickard who didn’t stand a chance on the shot. I’ve seen this very game many times over the years. It happens.
I thought they did a fine job nice to see a different perspective and enjoyed the Bowman and Lowe interview style. Lowe will be a die-hard til the end of his days. I still vividly remember Lowe scoring our 1st goal in franchise history and how excited me and the neighborhood kids were.
If you go for the free 30 day trial, it is impossible to cancel it during the trial, as it doesn’t exist yet.
You can only cancel it after it exists, which means after they charge you and set it. Then you can cancel.
But guess what? You just paid for the account.
Stetcher >> Dermott.
Neither are good enough.
Barrie should of been the choice, neither of these fellas bring enough.
I tend to agree. Barry played well with Kulak, and as well, with Nurse. Plus, he always fit well with his teammates in Edmonton.
Yes, I am sure Barrie would be a real asset on the PK and improve our D coverage. His famous strengths. He has only dressed for 5 games in Calagary.
Dermott nor Stetcher improve anything you’re talking about.
Barrie is a RD, Barrie against Edmonton the other night looked more like a professional defenseman then either Dermott or Stetcher have at any point this season.
Barrie would provide offense on the 2nd or 3rd pairing that either Stetcher or Dermott fail to do whatsoever.
If you combine Stetcher and Dermotts stats
0sog 0points -4
Barrie 7sog 1point -1
In less games then either Stetcher or Dermott lol
Absolutely agree. Even mentioned it at the time. Not perfect but right handed, cheap, and available.
This is the correct answer.
There are several still UFAs out there who could probably do this job.
Anyone know why are PK is so terrible bad, was McLeod and Foegele the difference maker?
I think different personnel definitely a factor. They miss Ceci and Des as well. Another factor has been goaltending which has been really inconsistent this season. Allen won last nights game for the Devils. PP goal that Pick let in last night was weak.
Not sure about Foegele, but McLeod was strong on PK with his skating. Excellent at disrupting zone entry and pressuring the points. (Note, no math was used in this assessment!)
am hopeful Philp can cover this bet.
Yeah, he doesn’t skate as well but he seems to have excellent awareness
why our PK….*
I think the PP is equally baffling. Exact same personnel as last year. I doubt that all the teams have figured out how to thwart the top PP from last few years.
Just my observation, but they’re too stagnate and predictable.
They look a lot more stationary to me. And Drai’s office has been scouted by teams and goalies. It is back to low percentage.
Codi Ceci
NHL has Bratt with the PP goal. He was the shooter, but we can clearly hear the puck hit someone on the way to the net. I thought it was the jumping Devil so I am surprised to see Bratt given the goal. Guess it was Nurse and his damn bad luck. It would be funny if it was happening to someone on the Flames…..someone sacrifice a chicken!
Nurse and his damn bad luck.
I looked at the replay & the change of direction seemed to occur when the puck went through Pickard.
I haven’t seen that replay. But on the first goal I clearly saw Nurse pushing the Devil player into Pickard. Picks looked like he wanted an interference call.
Pushed him in after the puck was in the net
Tread lightly.
If Nurse didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.
Half the forwards on this team are on pace for career lows in points and goals. That cannot sustain. Especially with the quality of chances they are getting.
Where’s that goat to sacrifice when you need one!
Bad enough that the goat is on IR, i’m not prepared to sacrifice him though.
They are all a year older. And many of their ages start with a 3.
For sure age is part of the equation. I do not think 7 players hit an age related cliff at the same time. It’s certainly possible but not probable.
Lots of teams are struggling. At this point it’s not tiredness, Bouch has the highest TOI/GP 5v5 at 19:17
Gregor at ON looked at the last 10 SCF losing teams and they all had this kind of start or worse except one 2019 Bruins
https://oilersnation.com/news/the-oilers-are-finding-their-stride-defensively
I see it as a bit of everything. They may be sick, seems to be a thing every fall. Some new players, some vets starting cold, SCF let down, it’s slowly coming around and they aren’t in peril like last season at least yet
They also really don’t like to follow a system that closely. Never have. Once they start playing more connected or do what they are being asked if it’s a bit different, dialing in more on the details, they will look and be better
Also, the debate rages about goalies, but an .813 on 16 shots isn’t good enough. Part is the set up for the goals and finishing as Allen at NHL.com is 25th in SV% for goalies with 2 plus games. He just played a sound game and faced mostly cold shooters. Ppick is 48th and Stu 51st
Age and the 107 game season last year, long run the year before, are definitely factors. Whether it is mental or physical I’m not sure.
I thought last nights game was fantastic outside the abysmal PK.
Nurse and RNH looked very good to my eye. Nurse in particular. Much quicker making plays with the puck.
Stan needs to buy the boys a few shooter tutors. If the Oilers play like that every night they win more often than not.
It’s working because Ekholm 28:28, Bouchard 27:36. Not sustainable and going to be a problem come game 50, let alone game 83, if nothing is done.
The TOI game versus elites via Puck IQ for Nurse, Stecher and Kulak is substantial. Power play time is different than even-strength time.
The TOI posted is also 5 and 3 minutes above season average – its not sustainable (well, for Ek, I think Bouch could) but its also the exception.
I suspect it’s being brought along slowly because Kulak balked at playing RD last spring (summer?).
Knoblauch (i think) is gently forcing Kulak into the role.
Credit for sure.
Isn’t Nurse playing the right side though?
Who is the RD on the pairing, Kulak or Nurse? I thought it was Nurse
They are both playing on the left side. They are calling it the overload.
More like they both play on the right side as it suits them.
I thought it’s mostly been Kulak playing the right side, even though Nurse moved to the right for that one game with Dermott.
Maybe I’m mistaken though.
As one who brought up Attard as an under-the-radar name during the offseason, it’s nice to see him added. Even in the likely event that it amounts to nothing at the NHL level (meh-to-minus skating), I like having more data on where and at what the Oilers organisation is looking.
I don’t know much about Attard, except I read that he is a rover type style of defenseman.
I’m uncertain as to if that is the type of defenseman the Oilers need. He has good size maybe they can mold him into something they need.
Am I noticing wrong things (bad eye test example) but are a lot of the shots along the ice or into the lower midsection of the opposition goalies? It felt like very few shots are getting elevated which imo makes for an easier save.
As a coach, the lower shots are often encouraged. More rebounds, chance for a deflection, etc. Alot of the time a goalie can’t help but trap the puck in his upper body when it goes there.
When they get the puck up and don’t miss the net they score more often. Per Cape Breton’s comment, I find they don’t take smart shots enough
If there isn’t much to shoot at take a hard low shot and force the goalie to put out a rebound out front. So often they shoot it into the midsection and it gets held and is a super low percentage shot. If you’re going low blocker make sure it’s not going to hit the goalie, or go upstairs
I found it noticeable how the Devils made quick plays to open players out front. They don’t stay open for long so timing is everything. I wish the Oilers would do it more, many games the opponent’s net front seems impenetrable, but I think it’s to do with how they attack. KK was saying they need more rush chances, which means getting to the O Zone before they set up
Good points, from both of you. There were a couple of near misses that turn that game around (Henrique’s crossbar & Pod’s inexplicable empty net miss). Still, when the team is getting an average of 33 shots a game and they are still putting up donuts in the score, there should be some examination of why that is.
If they’re trying to generate more rush chances it’s going to mean fewer clever passing plays in the slot, like you mentioned. Most of our rush chances end up in a goal, or going back the other way on a quick break.
I’d like to see them set up a cycle and drive to the net with intention, break down the opposition defense with quick passing and moving into gaps — just as you mention. Obviously there’s less room to wheel at 5v5 but they’ve got the horses.
I agree. They are a cycle/possession team, more than a rush team. But they need to convert zone time into goals. Watching the first 2 periods the Oilers were playing keep away at points, getting chances and the whole bit. But the puck needs to end up in the net sometimes, or teams will just rope a dope them into a loss.