Holy hell the Oilers can be bad at hockey. Last night, it was like someone said “Dallas Eakins was right, screw the goalie!” and the swarm returned. The amazing part of the evening? It was a helluva game until Vegas found another gear. Now, there are some things to understand about this team: Connor McDavid just returned from injury and was not peak Speedway; single events can be of enormous importance and still be single events (a player can own fine numbers while also being guilty as sin); and some trusted veterans did things they never, ever do.
Typical Oilers response will be a strong game on the weekend, but with some days off coming I would suggest some of these current Edmonton Oilers might want to be in the moment a little more often. Or, you know, once in a damn while.
The Athletic article today is about Matthew Savoie (who got hurt last night), Sam O’Reilly, Maxim Berezkin and some surprising prospects offering some hope for Oilers future. It is here.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner was brilliant for most of the night, you’d want him to save the point shot but there was a lot of movement (including an Oilers player) that provided a screen. I don’t know if it was tipped, if it I was apologize to the goalie. However, you need him to stop that one if only to give some hope to the penalty killers. They are close to the glue factory at this point. Other than that, I thought Skinner was quality on the night. VGK are a damned dangerous shooting team.
Evan Bouchard had a jarring night on defense, it was beyond the pale. I’m a big fan, and his overall numbers this season indicate strong possession and good outscoring results. However, he wasn’t close to being in position, read plays like a rookie and was generally poor. The Oilers need him to be better. Immediately.
The power play and the penalty kill can go to hell.
Jeff Skinner was in chase mode on the first GA, but at least he was ‘also in photo’ and there should have been a defensemen there (that last portion of the sentence could have been a theme for the night: There should have been a defensemen there).
Who did I like? Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak, Ty Emberson, Zach Hyman, and for the most part Stuart Skinner.
I would ordinarily write a negative segment about Nugent-Hopkins and his penalty in the third period 10 miles from the defensive zone. However, it’s so rare that I think we can regard it as an extreme outlier and question the stripes. Nuge doesn’t do those things. It’s difficult to pile drive the guy for it when it’s obviously a one-off moment.
Overall, I was impressed with the Oilers game. They need a winning streak and right soon!
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games
The Oilers needed a point last night and didn’t get it. If the club roars through the rest of the month, last night will be long forgotten. However, there has to be some doubt creeping in here. That’s unfortunate, because Nurse-Kulak is working, I like the progress made by Emberson, and the goaltending owns a .928 SP at five-on-five over the most recent eight game run. Send goals.
A busy day on the Lowdown, as we head toward the weekend with many Oilers worries. We hit the air at noon on Sports 1440 and will break down the game with Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation. We’ll also preview the TNF game between the Bengals and Ravens. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Stecher on the ice for practice is good to see – and surprising.
No Janmark.
No way Skinner can be faulted on the PPG ….Bouchard as often, was puck watching the play off to the side….too late he reacts to danger coming in, can
t get to the body but magically gets his perfectly slanted stck-blade on the shot to deflect it over Skinners pad and stick…..I replayed that 5 times…definitely was on Bouchard again….
Bouchard or Nurse who are never held accountable…some bench time or time upstairs is a must after plays like that is a must…I`ll bet they have more assists on opposition goals than their own offensive play assists…
Less Coffey more Stuart influence please.
Do these guys know that when they are in the offensive zone they are allowed to move without the puck. Everyone stands around watching the puck moving and only move once they get the puck. No one is moving to the open ice. Especially on the pp.
Also got too many guys that are not a threat to score.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but this team is boring to watch right now. Give me Broberg, Holloway and McLeod, and you can keep Skinner, Henrique and Janmark.
The defense is a mess, and it’s going to cost more assets and cap space to fix it at the deadline. I think it’s hilarious that we are playing Nurse and Kulak together, and they are playing well, but didn’t have room for Broberg. Instead we have a 3rd pairing of two righties, who are at best, a couple of 6/7 dmen.
I think there’s an underdiscussed aspect of this: there’s much less emotional investment in mercenaries like Henrique, Janmark and Brown when compared to drafted and developed players like McLeod, Holloway and Broberg. We haven’t been following these players’ ups and downs since they were 18 year olds and, therefore, their breakthroughs and successes don’t mean as much to us. I used to get genuinely so excited by McLeod or Holloway goals or big plays, but now there isn’t really anyone down the roster that I feel that way about.
I think this investment can be mimicked by fringe players that just so happen to click on a new team and have the right personality (see Kostin), but an established 7-10 year veteran simply is. They chose to come here and that’s nice, but it’s no substitute for having watched the full process only to eventually reap the rewards.
In my opinion, Oilers management would be unwise to neglect this side of things because this, too, is part of maintaining a financially successful and entertaining franchise.
I agree with all of this but, at the end of the day, it was a very bad penalty to take and it contributed to the loss (Skinner should have made the save and the kill finished off).
Mistakes happen, and Nuge doesn’t make alot of 10-bell mistakes, however its magnified due to the fact that he’s have a very non-impactful start to the season so the mistake, the contributes to a loss, is a bit “tougher to forgive”.
Come on man, get your game up and running, its time.
Can’t disagree with anything here but do want to add that, in my opinion, Jeff Skinner was just as culpable on the first goal against, perhaps more.
Ekholm also had an abysmal night – perhaps 28 minutes against Jersey was alot for a near 35 year old big man?
I thought, until the PPG against, Skinner was very good but far from brilliant.
Then the PPG against happened – that’s a bad goal, it just is. I don’t care if there was a flash screen or what but that is a puck that should be saved.
Skinner than made a HUGE save on, I believe, Hanafin – a huge save at a huge time – but then the team thought, hey, lets give that guy another brilliant chance – Stu wasn’t able to do it twice.
He was good, for the most part, and did make a couple big saves late but, damn, that PPG against was a killer.
Even Ekholm somewhat called it out in his post-game.
Too much of the roster is just bland. A mayonnaise on Wonderbread sandwich. Needs more kick and excitement, both for the fans and the team itself.
Who or what ignites the fire in these guys when the top guys aren’t scoring? Call it speculation but I think that’s part of why I think the team has been fighting more this year (and are 5-0 in games with a fight last I saw). Much like the fanbase, they benefit from things that help light a fire under them and pump them up. Veterans in particular have often “seen it all” and thus seem harder to engage, especially early in the year.
Further, as bottom-6 scoring usually isn’t reliable, I think the team needs to contemplate ways to fire up their team that don’t involve that and then get players who do that. Players that go fast, lay hits, aggressively forecheck, push the pace, drive the net and hopefully get in the other teams’ faces a bit. Players that’ll spark a chemical reaction of sorts. Holloway did much of this and was young, but that ship has unfortunately sailed. We already have the steady compounds that can allow said reagents to do their thing (Nuge, Henrique, Brown, Janmark, Ryan and co.); now we need a couple young mavericks or feisty deckhands to infuse some spice and energy.
Time for the scouts and management to earn their keep. Find the elements to create a chemical reaction.
When was the last time McDavid was peak Speedway except for a burst here or there?
Seriously?
Yes, he was just back from injury but it was like a week and, lets be honest, he was FAR from peak Speedway at all this season prior to the injury.
Lets look back and, well, he was far from peak Speedway for almost all of last year. Yes, I know, he got 100 assists and won the Conn Smyth but can we agree that we has not his peak/prime self for most of last season.
Injury was a factor last season, a hangover this season but, well, its been a long time since we saw peak Speedway/
Is there any chance he’s past peak Speedway except for small bursts?
I agree with Strudy on this one, I thought, for the most part, they played a solid game but then, as we often see, a couple major mistakes, and this time by veterans, and a poor moment by Skinner (PP floater) and the game is lost.
Its not like they were dominated or outplayed by Vegas, in fact, Oilers carried the play for most of the fist 40, however, Oilers could not extend their lead even with chances and, well, big mistakes reign supreme.
When will they start to cut these out and make them the exception as oppossed to the norm.
Savoie got hurt blocking a very hard shot from a couple feet away. Hopefully he’ll be OK, I didn’t see the point of contact but I thought it was above the waist. He needed help off the ice from teammates.
Oilers 30th in scoring. Figure it out.
Knoblauch has a much, much longer leash than Woodcroft, especially because the effort this season shows us how much it had to do with the coaching staff, but holy hell do they look uninterested in playing hockey.
Still a VERY unbalanced lineup. When you have Perry, Ryan, Nuge, Brown, etc. giving you next to nothing most nights what do you expect? This team has forever been weak and inconsistent on the blue line for years and this year might be one of the worst ever. the beat goes on.
Hey Bruce – is there a glossary to CoH stats somewhere?
Lots of analysis of what is wrong with the team. At least we can see that all the underlying parts and people should still be enough to be winning, in games, or close.
So what are the solutions?
This team can’t hold a 3rd period lead, and it isn’t the best players fault.
The 3-2 goal was Drai. His backtrack left Hanifin open, he was too close to Pod who being LW was in the right place. Killing the 2-2 PK would have been great, but I am more concerned with the go ahead play for them at 5v5
Looking at Goal Visualizer, the Knights had possession and too many men on as it looks there (7 at one point). Very sloppy change that should have been called
If Skinner gets to the puck game goes into OT. Smith definitely Pickard probably make that play. Skinner below average play with the puck will cost a point here and a point there but they do add up.
Oilers are just too old and slow. If they don’t change the make up of the team, this will be a wild card team, at best.
Glad I was able to attend playoff games last year and one of them was the WC clinching game. What a wild time and saddens me that I may not experience it this year. 🙁
The Oilers keep convincing themselves as a whole that they have to be something different in order to win – which is wrong.
Scoring teams should score. No one can keep pace with them in this sort of game.
Instead Tippett, Woodcroft and now Knoblauch seem to think putting the brakes on is the way to go.
You don’t take your track-ready Ferrari into the woods ffs.
Its also the media and the fanbase for a large part beating the drum of structure and defensive play. There is a logic to it but its too conservative.
I think with this team you go all out, every night. Let them have fun. Roll the dice every time. You know the talent is there that over 7 games nobody can keep up. Yet everyone wants the Oilers to play “smart” hockey. Forget that BS. This team is built for fireworks. Let’s go!
Are the Oilers being out-chanced on a nightly basis? Or are the simply suffering the effects are incredibly low SH%?
I’ll go right to the heart of the matter – why is Connor stinking the joint out this year?
This is not the #97 that rarely has a bad shift, not to mention a bad game.
I’m convinced he’s sabotaging himself, trying to be a player he is not. This is the only reason players of his level tend to go through periods where they look average-to-bad.
The team looked better without him. Think about that.
Hopefully there is someone in the org who can see this and he listens to. Or maybe time for a call from #99.
Mental fatigue
Yup, think he emptied the tank in the playoffs and he isn’t able to refill it yet. Honestly give him another week off. He’s killing my fantasy team! 😀
Other than your opinion, is there evidence that McDavid is sabotaging himself to be a better defensive player. Are his defensive and face-off metrics improved?
Is this that “repeatable game” that LT was talking about a couple of days ago?
Play just well enough to seem like you were in the game but collapse completely in time to give the victory to the opposition?
This team is so tiresome, exhausting, really.
They should be one of the best teams in the league, right at the top of the standings, playing .750 hockey… but nope.
Same as it ever was… same as it ever was.
I have been of the opinion since summer that Jackson made this team older, smaller and slower when he added two expensive old guys in Alfredson and Skinner and let go three younger bigger and much faster players .It is becoming more and more obvious in our specialty teams play ,neutral zone play and in the third period when the new older legs and the resident older legs just can’t keep up
Foegele was as good as gone his replacement Arvidsson has to be at worst a wash on paper. The whole purpose of trading McLeod was to get younger and save a bit on the cap. The Skinner 1year 3 million deal you take everyday and twice on Sunday. Losing Holloway and Broberg was nasty pool by Armstrong. The trade for Jarventie was to hopefully have a fresh bottom sixer later this year.The O’Reilly trade and draft was to expedite the young forward group that was nonexistent under Holland. What would you have done differently? What would you have signed Foegele- Broberg- Holloway for remember they had no idea what Kane was doing plus it was the shortest offseason in there history.
The lagging effects of Game 7 are spectacular.
This team is full of talent. You can see it. But everything they do now seems to be with general malaise. Good interviews but just sleepwalking “saying the right things” Identifying the right things. Been there done that.
Fatigue. Limited interest. Trying but not battling. Going through the motions but low intensity. It was a good game actually, by two skilled teams but was there really any intensity?
We’ll save that for later when we need it.
Its very hard to dig in. Coach is a quiet man. No big driver for performance has yet emerged this year. And veterans want to get wins, as peacefully as possible.
In regards to summer roster I think the mistake was signing too much age and experience to win that last game of the playoffs, but totally underestimating the 82 games to get there. Forgetting the importance of youth, driven to make a team. Forgetting the importance of intensity, and not finding those players that bring it.
Oilers have a bad hangover.
They had 29 hits. I don’t know if that is an indication of intensity. They continue to only get one crack on the PP and of course they can only kill off one of two on the PK. But isn’t the goaltender supposed to be the best penalty killer?
Hyman was hitting, Emberson a few. Nurse played well. I doubt the 29 hits, sounds very homer. But still last in league in regards to hits to date.
Interesting when they fight they win. I don’t think there is much to this stat, but it is a minor indication of intensity.
Gentlemanly play rarely draws penalties. You draw penalties when you are hard to stop.
Goaltending I think falls under general malaise as well. Nice interviews Stu, say the right things, move on, focus on next game….etc. What pisses you off Stu? When are you going to get so dam mad your give a sh*t meter goes through the roof. Play like it matters.
I don’t put it on the goalies, but they have a part..
Still hungover. They must have been shot-gunning the beers between tequila shots.
Hyman had 7 hits, Emberson 4, Nurse & Podz with 3 each. But yeah 29 hits gotta be a record for this season.
Also, for all those saying: “things were worse last year and it turned out fine”.
Last years turnaround was the exception. One of the greatest comebacks in a season in NHL history. Think about the mental energy required to get through last season. Do we really think the guys have enough in the tank to do the same this year? Cannot afford to dig a big hole.
Yeah but things were worse last year and resultantly they don’t need the greatest comeback of all time, they need to correct mid season as they have last season but also the one before. We remain within the norm.
That’s be honest here. Sure last season was a tremendous success, but also they made it tremendously exhausting and harder on themselves than it should have been. The season before can hardly be viewed as a success. I don’t think this is a “norm” that should be endorsed.
Not endorsing one way or another: Just looking at the team as it is, and has been.
No idea what to think of this group anymore. Best odds to win the cup??? Currently looks like a battle for a wild card playoff spot. Best group of forwards in the league?? Currently one of the lowest scoring teams. Best PP in the last number of years. Not getting many chances and can’t piss a drop when they do.
Also: Please help me. That Joannie Rochette’s Lincoln commercial is the most garbled narrative I have ever seen in an advertisement. Seriously, is this an AI script? Its nonsensical. I am obsessed with how bad this commercial is.
Having to watch the same commercials over and over during the hockey season is cruel and unusual punishment.
There should be a law regarding how many times you’re allowed to air a commercial.
By the end of the season, I will have seen some commercials 1,000 times.
And you wonder why I have such rage?
The title of the blog today matches my take on this team. My observations:
Evan Bouchard is a ridiculously talented hockey player. His style however is peculiar, very upright skater with short strides, good with the puck close to his body, less in control when he’s extended. He can walk the line and retain puck control where most defencemen can’t. His style allows him to have success in the corners in his own zone in order to get the puck moving the other way. However his defensive awareness is dangerously lacking when the other team is in transition. This is me being generous. I am giving him benefit of the doubt due to his unique skating style as I know we often equate that with laziness and I don’t want to suggest that, but if I am honest I have to supress my eyes and instincts in order to do so.
I hated that first goal, and the third goal for him. (Ekholm also looked horrible on GA 1.)
Connor McDavid, similarly, isn’t into it yet this year. He doesn’t look slower. He doesn’t look hurt. He looks disinterested. He’s at 50% which wouldn’t be good enough from anyone. Before the injury his defensive game was completely MIA. Last night, we just saw no chemistry with, seemingly, anyone.
These two–McDavid and Bouchard–play too chaotically to also play disinterested hockey. When they are dialled in, they compensate for their chaos with their talent. If they aren’t contributing their talents at 100%, the chaos they initiate is too great for lesser talents to counter balance. This is why Edmonton either feels like the second coming of the Red Army, or a KHL club. It’s in their character. Its why they play better when they need to: because they can. I would also throw Leon into that mix as well. When he’s lazy, its chaos inc. Soft pizzas to the middle of the ice, etc. To his credit, however, Leon is carrying the team and has been the major reason they aren’t 2-9-1.
So my takeaway is that two of the very brightest stars on this team need to get their shit together. But I have faith that they will, because they always do. But if you’re into this team for regular season Division Titles, I would shop elsewhere.
Ekholm also looked horrible on GA 3. Didn’t get the puck, didn’t get the man.
that said, the guy played 75 minutes of NHL hockey in 75 hours of real rime. I’m still baffled as to why he played 28+ minutes in what was clearly a lost cause vs. New Jersey on Monday, ditto for Bouchard (27 minutes) & Draisaitl (23) in that same game, i expressed on the CoH podcast that night my concern that might take a toll next game. Lo & behold, all 3 were simulatenously both on the ice & out to lunch in the 60th minute when the game was lost.
Fair enough and good observation I didn’t catch that episode. This shouldn’t be an issue considering their depth at forward and appears to me to be a Nurse issue on D. That’s 9 million not playing 27/28 minutes…
Kulak & Nurse both had over 23 minutes which was slightly more than Ek & Bouch.
Maybe all they need is a partner for Emberson other than Travis Dermott, or Troy Stecher or heaven forbid Josh Brown.
So they tread water until the deadline I guess or they start scoring or they trade for that dman now.
Bruce’s point is valid and thus far this season:
Bouch averages 3 minutes more per game than Nurse and 6 minutes more than Kulak;
Ek averages 2 minutes more per game than Nurse, and 5 more than Kulak.
With a Nurse-Kulak pair they might be able to balance the minutes out is what I’m trying to say. I totally agree with Bruce. It also might be easier to find a left shot partner for Emberson than it would be to find a right shot partner for Nurse if Kulak can do the job.
I’m not buying into your notion that McDavid and Drai are chaos.
Your sphincter doesn’t tighten when Leon has the puck with his back to the play at either blue line?
My sphincter also tightens when 97 is choosing between tracking man 1, tracking man 2, tracking man 3 and cheating the zone simultaneously.
These are marvellous talents. But their errors, a product not of lack of skill but of focus, create numerous positional and transitional issues that catch their teammates off guard.
The special teams play is going to result in a stupid personnel decision. Either a trade or a firing. Special teams is probably directly responsible for like 3-4 loses already.
Maybe it’s time for the special teams coach to be replaced
Gully or Stuart? I don’t know the players have a part to play.