Oilers at Canucks, G15 2024-25

During the 1980’s the Edmonton Oilers prospect pool fed the big-league team with trade assets and actual NHL players. Charlie Huddy, Andy Moog, Don Jackson, Steve Smith, Esa Tikkanen, Jeff Beukeboom, Kelly Buchberger and others made their way through the system to NHL success and the Stanley Cup.

The 2010’s saw several quality players come through two AHL cities, but the team didn’t get enough traction to find playoff success. Management changes and injuries left the team in a constant state of disarray and that didn’t get better until Ken Holland arrived.

Holland made sure men like Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway had plenty of minor-league experience, with the ultimate goal of having them play a decade or more in the NHL. Turns out, they will. Most of them will play in other NHL cities. The Holland tunnel, at least for useful prospects, mostly flowed one way. Out.

The Athletic article today is about the Oilers baffling inability to score and outscore. Regression will come, but will it be in time? And why is much of the blame on the goalies? Article is here.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

• At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
• November results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
• Oilers in 2024-25: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games

I have tonight as a win over the Vancouver Canucks. Van City is 7-2-1 in the last 10, but 1-1-3 at home. Edmonton should have the kind of desperation that comes from letting go of a lead against a division contender in the third period of the previous game. I’m never certain what version of the Oilers will show up in Vancouver, but am glad the Sedins are retired. Man, they wore out the Alberta teams.

THE REPLACEMENTS

It’s best to wait 20 games, so the experts say, but I’m impatient to see how things turn out. Edmonton followed up the dual offer sheet by St. Louis with two quick moves for Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin. I don’t think anyone expected those two to exceed what was expected of the exiting youngsters, but how are they doing, really?

Vasily Podkolzin is not exactly setting the world on first offensively (1.14 pts-60 at five-on-five) but ranks No. 4 among Edmonton’s forwards currently. Only Leon Draisaitl (2.36), Jeff Skinner (1.92) and Connor McDavid (1.72) are ahead of Podkolzin.

His five-on-five goal share is just 30 percent, that’s poor. However, his underlying numbers are quality. Podkolzin leads the team’s forwards in Corsi and Fenwick (both 65 percent), is second to Draisaitl with a 64 percent shot share and No. 2 to Leon in expected goals (64 percent).

The 30 percent goal share comes via a terrible on-ice shooting percentage and below average save percentage. Those totals should improve. Podkolzin has good arrows. Here’s the Puck IQ player card for Podkolzin:

The numbers here show some exposure to elites (he’s played with a pretty damn good center) during these early games with Podkolzin showing well. If we look at the overall deployment versus elites, we can see Podkolzin is one of the forwards getting more play versus elites.

Makes sense of course, he’s going to be on the ice against elites when playing with Draisaitl. What’s encouraging is the results. Playing about the same level of competition as the top forwards, Podkolzin’s 55 percent Dangerous Fenwick shows well. He isn’t at McDavid levels (65 percent versus elites) but that’s a solid part of the graph. Now, Draisaitl is floating all boats on the line, but overall I think Podkolzin is playing well enough to spend time on the No. 2 line this season. Suspect Nuge and Jeff Skinner will grab some of that time, though.

Ty Emberson has played in 12 of 14 games and owns the fewest minutes per game (12:43) at five-on-five. If the Oilers make a trade (rumours are out there) for a defenseman who can play right-side it’s possible Emberson sits. That’s a bad idea, because he could leave via free agency (Type 6, the Tyler Pitlick family) if he doesn’t get enough games this season. Stan Bowman could trade him in the deal for a new defender, but I like Emberson and he’s improving as the games roll along.

At five-on-five, Emberson’s Corsi (55 percent) and Fenwick plus shot share (54 percent) are No. 4 among defensemen.

His 27 percent goal share in the discipline is the worst among blue. His his expected goal share is 56 percent, fourth on the team among blue.

I like Emberson for many reasons, including youth and adaptability. His shifts are not consistent because of the rotation system currently being deployed by Edmonton’s coaching staff. Emberson is effective even with the gaps in shifts.

He was 0-4 goals at five-on-five in his first two games with Edmonton, 3-4 since. He performs well with Brett Kulak as his partner, but is 3-6 goals with the veteran (62 percent expected goals). Here’s a look at Puck IQ’s player card for him:

Small sample size alert here, but his Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi, like expected goals) is solid. He does well against elites and poorly against the soft parade relative to his teammates, but these are very small samples and should be judged unreliable. We can see trending, though. He is also a victim of poor save percentage and a low shooting percentage during his time on ice.