The Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday HNIC is instant nostalgia for me. Plaster walls, smoke in the air, laughter from the parents and grandparents, cards and the call of the hockey game. If it was Toronto versus Montreal, the entire group would be in front of the television set, beers in hand and plenty of positive verbal for Tim Horton and Johnny Bower. Every so often, a young player, like Jim McKenny or Gary Smith, would make an appearance. The general mood of the room I was in would turn on a dime. WHY are they playing these damn kids??? I think the last young player my parents and grandparents truly liked from the 1960’s Toronto Maple Leafs was Ron Ellis. Back then, youth meant mistakes and more time on the farm. This 2024-25 Oilers team is trending in that direction.
The Athletic article today is about the best defensive trade acquisition by the Oilers since Chris Pronger. Mattias Ekholm is exceptional. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 3-2-0, 6 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-7-1, 19 points in 17 games
My projection of 8-5-0 this month looks reasonable from here, with this road trip representing a major opportunity for the Oilers. The club still has issues, with goal-scoring wingers who aren’t scoring goals a major one. Since the poor 0-3-0 start to the season, Edmonton’s record is 9-4-1 and that’s quality. The team has a chance this weekend to put the pedal to the metal.
FIVE-ON-FIVE PTS-60 (FORWARDS)
- Connor McDavid 2.40
- Leon Draisaitl 2.36
- Mattias Janmark 1.86
- Jeff Skinner 1.66
- Zach Hyman 1.17
- Connor Brown 1.16
- Viktor Arvidsson 1.1
- Corey Perry 1.04
- Vasily Podkolzin 0.93
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.79
- Adam Henrique 0.59
- Derek Ryan 0.44
There’s plenty to be concerned about here, but nothing that a monster goal-scoring road trip at five-on-five can’t cure. Zach Hyman’s off his normal pace, and his pts-60 has been halved year over year. Experts say wait 20 games before reaching any conclusions, we’ll know he is getting close when the HDSC’s (also down) increase.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a player I’m concerned about just based on eye test. He’s such a savvy player, always in the right spot and you never have to worry about effort. He isn’t getting to as many plays this season. Yes his offense is off, but his five-on-five number a year ago (1.66) wasn’t exceptional and we don’t expect him to score 100 points again. What we do expect, and have come to know over many years, is astute reads, getting there and being there in the play. I’m a little worried, have to say.
Left wing overall is a mell of a hess, with the best offensive player Jeff Skinner falling on hard times with the coaching staff due to play without the puck. I hope Nuge, Skinner and Podkolzin all have strong road trips. Mattias Janmark? Shining like a diamond, thanks. What a fine player.
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 56 pct goals, 63 pct expected goals in 294 minutes
- Nurse-Kulak: 75 pct goals, 66 pct expected goals in 75 minutes
These are five-on-five numbers and show the top pairing to be money (as usual). The key item here is the second pairing, now at 75 minutes and continuing a positive trend. At this point, I believe it’s fair to suggest Stan Bowman should consider pursuing a third pairing LH partner for Ty Emberson.
- Stuart Skinner: .915 SP five-on-five in 501 minutes since mid-October (10 games)
- Calvin Pickard: .930 SP five-on-five in 252 minutes since mid-October (5 games)
The goaltending at five-on-five has settled in now, Oilers fans may not get their wish for a Stuart Skinner trade. Not now, anyway. When his next contract arrives, there will be a reckoning. Edmonton winning a Stanley Cup between now and then would benefit the young stopper in a big way.
A quick final note on the lack of youth on Edmonton’s 2024-25 team. There’s no need to panic if Bowman is lining up a couple of Russian free agents this summer (Maxim Berezkin would be a nice add) or if Matthew Savoie, Olivier Rodrigue, Noah Philp and Jayden Grubbe all push for NHL jobs next season.
However, it is fair to point out, as Bruce McCurdy mentioned on the Lowdown this week, that Connor McDavid is the second youngest forward on the team, and he turns 28 in January. The only key piece on the club 25 or under is Evan Bouchard. That gets expensive, and old legs erode over time. It would behoove this organization to add some youth as time goes by, and it would certainly help if Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin emerge as long-term solutions.
The Athletic: How Oilers defenceman Mattias Ekholm has been so valuable to the team
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5922198/2024/11/15/mattias-ekholm-oilers-value/
I do hope this 11-7 is only a temporary situation. I’m patiently waiting for Skinner to get a push and let’s see him have a multi-goal game tonight.
Seems like Raphael Lavoie is regressing.
He had zero points and was -2 in a 6-2 win last night.
He now was 2 points (one goal) and is -9 in 10 games for Henderson.
I did not expect this.
Big game tonight. A win will be huge and move the Oil into a tie with the Flames and Kings.
I wonder if Jamie Drysdale is a potential buy low target.
I wanted him last year then he got traded out of nowhere.
What makes you think he’s available so soon?
Looks like he got rushed into the league and is ready to bust
Last time I tried to post I ended up getting downvoted by 2 to 1…
But Nurse has really been coming on ever since I mentioned my hopeful prediction that he was about to come into his own and make everyone stfu.
No idea what is making Nurse improve so quick. Anyone able to help me with this question?
Likely health/full recovery from injury.
Obviously, it was you posting about it.
Now please post about both Skinners and Nuge.
I still don’t get why they made that O’reilly pick. 1st round picks are the currency at trade deadlines and this team really needs currency
Agreed. Early days but his offence seems quite shy for a player you are trading up to take.
St Louis 2nd and 3rd are currency to get the D man to play with Nurse. Probably a expiring contract as Bouchard and Drais raises will eat next years cap
Second pairing D are probably a bit more expensive. That will probably get you a Ryan Suter rental
New scouting director. First pick is a signature selection. Kevin Lowe, Ales Hemsky, Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid, Dylan Holloway, Sam O’Reilly.
Wonder how long of a leash Skinner has left. He’s winning the green jacket already.
Unfortunately this was predictable. I know some are counting on him still getting 20 goals but even if he does he’s gonna be deep in the red in +/-
Change of plan, coach says Arvidsson is NOT good to go tonight and they will go 11/7.
Or as cover for Kulak, in case of slump or injury.
Ivan Provorov is my ideal target, among non RH defenders. Not sure what he’d cost, but worth the call.
Is Provorov any good? Famous name but his numbers look pretty underwhelming. What am I missing?
He’s doing well against elites on a bad team, often on his off side. Good boots.
$6.75 million. Not sure how that gets shoehorned into the payroll. Maybe near the deadline, with retention…
Precisely.
Letting young twenty something actual NHL players walk out the door is pretty much the defining characteristic of a bad GM. The GM is unable to see through the imperfections to see the strengths of the players. Those who know the asset the best, like it the least. i.e. Negative or inverse proximity bias.
In Jackson’s case, one hopes this is merely a rookie mistake.
Oilers management didn’t have to be in chase mode with respect to the roster anymore, and they put themselves right back in chase mode for the roster for essentially the rest of the McDavid era.
Small disagreement. Bowman has had success in signing Euro free agents. If he can find a Broberg, I think the Oilers would have clawed back the offer sheets sufficiently.
If you want a Broberg only way is to draft one. Oh wait
The main mistake Jackson made was not changing GMs sooner. He mandated Holland with signing both and he couldn’t get it done, after in particular yanking Bro’s chain for a couple of years
Another mistake was not trading them as soon as the playoffs ended, waiting for Bowman. They must have known the sheets were coming, they knew Bro was as good as gone, and would not pay Holloway an offer sheet amount
I think it’s pretty clear that the table was set during Holland’s tenure. Because they wouldn’t sign they should have been moved, because of the risk. Both players had good value even though not established, teams don’t offer sheet players otherwise. After the playoffs it was over with those two
There’s another possibility as well. If Holland stays on, Armstrong doesn’t dual offer sheet the Oil because Holland has the respect amongst his peers that Jackson/Bowman do not. I believe Holland and Armstrong are buddies, no?
Holland was bad with contract negotiations and cap value assessment full stop. From Nurse to Keith to Campbell etc, it’s just one questionable contract after another.
While I’m unhappy the Oil lost Broberg and Holloway because of cap management errors of their own making. I’m also cognizant of the fact that one scenario whereby they avoided this was Holland grossly overpaying both of them. That was always a threat with Kenny at the helm.
As someone who has advocated for years for the Oilers to stop acquiring or negotiating bad value contracts (sure death in a cap system), I can’t criticize them for not matching the Blues’ offers. What I do criticize them for on that one is the same old same old, Holland’s inability to sign players to value contracts long before it became an untenable situation.
Broberg was a diva for multiple seasons, it wasn’t cap management. It was the player wanting out and making the moves to do so. The Oilers literally gave him everything he wanted other then asking him to out perform the veterans ahead of him. Allowed him to stay in Sweden, gave him 1D minutes in all scenarios on their farm club. He wasn’t able to beat out Ekholm, Nurse, or Kulak ahead of him. So he took his ball and left.
Holloway jumped at the pay increase while relaying the fact he only has 1 good arm. Never draft a Flames fan.
Exactly. It is another example of poor asset management. Should have made them fair offers early on in the process and if they wouldn’t sign, make a trade.
Prospectity!
It’s not quite Saturation Saturday as the House of Stone gets a night off. Everyone else toils.
High-end offense was never going to be O’Reilly’s calling card, but one can still be concerned that he has seven games goalless gone with only four assists during that stretch.
Meanwhile, Nicholl has flourished with 20 points (7+13) in 18 GP, good for 2nd on the Knights. Also tied for the team lead with +10.
Lachance is in a three-way tie for the BU scoring lead with 10 points (4+6) in 10 games. His teammate Copponi is coming around after a slow start with 2+5 his last seven GP.
Mazura also shares his team’s scoring lead with 11 points (1+10) in 10 games.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 2 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 4 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 6 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Hilda* time.
*I once pulled beer from the Hilda tavern many moons ago for my underage friends back in Sask. Also played in a slo-pitch tourney there. Good times!
From 1.72 to 2.40 in the blink of an eye. McDavid is ridiculous.
Janny at 1.86, whatever he’s eating others should try it out.
Janmark running an IPP of 120%.
on the ice for 5 goals, has 6 points.
7 points
Half his assists are primary, and the other 3 I remember him in the pack celebrating the goal. Not sure which one of his secondaries they’re saying he wasn’t on ice for.
Won’t be easy but 4-6 points here should be expected.
I have every expectation they win tonight’s game but they are playing a good team.
Mon and Tuesday are against teams they should beat but, of course, its back to back and 3 in 4 (and 4 in 6) in different arenas and I do think losing two hours travelling east means something.
LT says the roster could use more youth bubbling under.
Where my brain immediately goes. Broberg and Holloway!
Shame the way it turned out. Will be a real disappointment if the team’s Cup window closes sooner rather than later because of performance/aging curves.
Jackson has pushed in his chips on older players and a win now approach. Certainly this approach can be rationalized given how close the team came last season. But the vets damn well have to perform and right now there’s a LOT of them off to slow starts.
The one thing I do like about Jackson/Bowman so far is they’re bringing in guys on short term deals with gives them flexibility AND taking flyers on players like Podkolzin who have pedigree and still have development potential.
Oddly, despite the aging roster, I have a lot of belief in this team atm largely because of the coaching staff. These gents have shown me they’re top notch as a staff. You need 3 things to win the cup. Strength down the middle. Great goaltending. And a great coach. The latter factor is always underrated imo. Great to have a maestro behind the bench now.
Yeah these short term deals help offset the NMCs to the core players.
Apparently you don’t actually have to offer trade protection to get quality UFAs to sign in EDM, who knew?
I hate NMC but comparing when those players signed to the signing of players after losing in game 7 of the finals is not really the same thing.
Jeff Skinner has a full NMC on his one year contract.
Rumors suggest he’d welcome a trade to a team that’s willing to give him a multi year term.
Skinner’s contract includes full NMC.
Unfortunately the offer sheets made us go from we are getting a cup to oh crap we got our work cut out
Stecher had a tough game against Nashville but he’s shown better than Dermott. I figure this is to have a leftie with Emberson when Kulak plays most of the game with Nurse.
Agree
Via Tony Brar on X:
EDM lines & pairings at Morning Skate:
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Skinner – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Dermott
Kulak – Emberson
Stecher
Skinner
Pickard
defence makes sense. Dermott can check down to play left side with Emberson when they go Nurse Kulak. I like Stecher better than Dermott, but don’t like the two right shots together
Speaking of young legs, here is hoping that Jarventie is in the lineup for the Condors tonight.
Finally got in to action, played back to backs – out since.
Is this player NHL ready when and if he’s healthy and up to speed?
He needs a year on the farm to show he can play two ways, play with consistent energy, and stay in the line up. The youth they need is NHL players under 27
Have you seen him play much?
He’s played two games in a year – and this wasn’t “time-off” this was major surgery and injury rehab.
I would suggest he shouldn’t be thought of as an option this season and, also, recall, at least from the two games he’s played as a Condor, he is NOT the player-type that you have suggested – he is not an aggressive banger and crasher – his size is used in the cycle game and he has a penchant from camping out in front of the net.
I did watch both his games as a Condor and, in game 1, he showed a very mature game and showed there is a legit NHL player there.
Mike Griffith has told me “maybe next week”.
Arvidsson on the ice for morning skate.
Beat the Leafs!!!!
Would luv to see the Nuge come out of whatever offensive funk he is in tonight.