One day I’ll write the story of Sam Pollock and his brilliance at the first expansion draft, but the heart of the story is contained in these paragraphs I wrote on this blog over a decade ago. Pollock had the best and strongest system before the expansion draft, and his pool of talent was even more dominant after the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs were decimated by the 1967 expansion.
It made the following decade a different vibe, as the Canadiens flew well past the Leafs in all-time Stanley Cups. That race is now long decided for all time, but in 1967 it was a close contest.
The NHL moves slow and fast, and there are always forces that have an impact. Since Connor McDavid was drafted, the NHL has expanded to place two strong franchises (one a super franchise in Vegas) in the same division as the Oilers. That’s the NHL, it isn’t like other major leagues.
There are opportunities for innovation, and we may be seeing something special happening in Edmonton.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 4-2-1, 9 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-7-2, 20 points in 18 games
The Oilers are on a nice run (3-0-1) after the wobbly start to the month. The team’s overall goal share is 52 percent (23-21) through seven games. Edmonton is a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league, and for November is averaging 3.25 GF and 2.96 GA. Last season, over the entire year, the club averaged 3.85 GF per game, 2.85 GA per game. What does this mean? As much as people are worried about the goaltending, it’s the goal scoring that is off the pace (by .6 goals a game).
We’ll talk about this more as the season rolls along, but I’m liking the five-on-five numbers in November from these Oilers. SA-60 is 23.7, GA-60 is 2.35 and HDCA-60 is 7.21. Those numbers last season: 26.8 SA-60; 2.3 GA-60; 10.1 HDCA-60. It doesn’t tell the entire story, not all HD chances are created equal, but it does tell us the shots and HD chances are down. The GA remains the same, but we are dealing in a small sample (seven games) and that should iron itself out.
I get the sense many of you are waiting for the sky to fall. Not being critical, Oilers fans have been shredded this century so expecting bad news is a good way to shield yourself against further devastation.
There’s much upset about the events of summer, from signing veterans July 1 to losing kids later in the summer. Personally, my idea of team building has been derailed by summer 2024. The ‘build through the draft and development’ model I hold dear has been set aside in favour of a ‘sign the olds!’ approach by management.
As much as I don’t enjoy this way of pushing for Stanley, it’s important to remember there’s more than one way to win a championship. I’m intrigued by this team’s deployment of the new additions, as it speaks to Kris Knoblauch’s overall philosophy and approach to winning.
I’m reading plenty of chatter about Jeff Skinner’s deployment as a negative, but for me it’s an indication of what the coach would like from his roster. Knoblauch is playing Nuge and Vasily Podkolzin ahead of Skinner, and Mattias Janmark is forcing his way above Skinner, too. Let’s see how this plays out. It’s a fascinating time to be watching the Oilers. Knoblauch is showing us what he is.
The Lowdown hits at noon on Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and ESPN will join us, and I’ll ask about the Saturday night Oilers-TML game, the roster structure as it stands, and moves the team might make before the deadline. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about the Oilers-Habs, Grey Cup and more. Declan Krueger will have Declanations, we’ll talk MMA but also some major boxing excitement from the Mike Tyson bout (and I’m not talking about Tyson’s wardrobe, or more accurately, lack of wardrobe). I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: How are the Edmonton Oilers’ 4 key new arrivals performing this season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5927438/2024/11/18/oilers-stats-skinner-arvidsson/
Big test to have Nurse out for the next while. Although he takes a lot of heat, he was playing some of his best hockey before the injury. These next games will be telling as to Nurse’s value to the team. Who would have thought that the Oilers would lack depth at left defense, while having an excessive amount of third pair right d men to choose from
Long live the rightorium!
Knob says Nurse will be out 5-10 days.
I think that’s positive news.
Then again Arvy was getting a “maintenance day” and 50-50 to play the next game and we are four games later and no Arvy……
Couldn’t agree more.
I try to not be a sky is falling kind of guy, try to live in the moment and anticipate the near future. Being an Oilers fan can test this inclination but to me it’s the best way to take it all in.
I’m seeing KK demand a certain level of accountability, and it looks like he distributes expectations evenly across the board.
I wonder who gets the start all we need is .900 league average and we win 7 out of 10 games. I would go with Pickard if he leaks like Skinner then Bowman has his first big decision to make.
Pickard.
This is a real opportunity for Pickard to seize the reins as Skinner looks mentally tired. Can Pickard show his team and the league that he has strength to be a starting pitcher for stretches. This will go a long way to getting 1 more contract even at 33 as Pickard doesn’t have many miles on him.
I do think anyone that’s had a concussion should be out a mandatory two weeks. It’s just too easy to get another one
As someone who has been involved in research in this area, Canadian guidelines note that about 90% of mild concussions will resolve within 7 days if the proper gradual return to play steps are followed.
Now we don’t know the severity of Nurse’s injury as though the hit and his immediate response were quite concerning, it was reported that he appeared to be feeling relatively well post game when interacting with his teammates.
Certainly depending on factors like severity of injury, if a significant concussion history is present and persistence of symptoms despite following restrictions on activity/stimulation, recovery time could and should well extend to 2 weeks or far beyond.
So basically while I don’t feel a 2 week period should be mandatory based on current evidence, I could see an argument for it in many cases with pro hockey players specifically (in regards to many having suffered multiple concussions previously).
If you are a 30 year old hockey player and haven’t had a concussion I would be shocked. The risk of unnecessarily sitting for an extra week is far less than having another concussion
No. Just no.
This discussion has gone from “shake it off” to “MY GAWD EVERYONE’S BRAIN IS GOING TO EXPLODE!!!!”. Neither position is strong.
Everyone who plays hockey does not have a concussion history. In fact, most do not.
It also differs between individuals as to whether it is in fact “easy” to get one.
And of course the people pushing numbers that suggest that everyone is brain injured also want trampolines banned and mandatory bubble wrap for anyone venturing out of their basement just in case they bump their head on a liftgate.
Too far.
Yes, unnecessary sitting and precaution can have traumatic impact to one’s health. Hopefully nobody in the medical staff is taking this dangerous approach.
Has it been confirmed that it’s a concussion?
Nope. But that won’t stop the people that want to play doc.
Not officially but all of the tea leaves point in that direction
the cut on his nose wouldn’t cost anything
Pretty standard medical advice after head trauma.
Lucky for Nurse the injury happened while in Toronto.
I would think the best therapy for him is a few quiet days at home enjoying mom’s cooking.
It’s Monday. The game will be what it is don’t stress.
How about Metal Church covering Black Betty ?!?!?!?! “She’s so rock steady she’s always ready”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og6EBFfH-gU
I miss Rom.
Heavy cover songs?
I’m game:
https://sergeantthunderhoof.bandcamp.com/track/cloudbusting
Oh this is excellent. Thanks !!
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
Kris Knoblauch confirms Arvidsson out, Nurse likely to be out “5-10 days.”
RNH plays 900th game tonight.
11:11 AM · Nov 18, 2024
Good news on Nurse, but taken with a huge grain of salt. Concussion recovery can be unpredictable and the Oilers are typically inaccurate on injury updates. See Arvidsson for latest example
Sure, but the goal scoring is still above 3 GFs in your “3-2 league.” GA of 2.96 is much worse than 2. The Oilers remain a team that has to outscore their mistakes, and there are too many mistakes.
Per Stauffer
——————-
I remember when Arvidsson was just having a maintenance day and was 50/50 to play the next game – 4 games later……..
I though Jeff Skinner created quite a bit the last two games and, for me, I’d put him up with Drai and Podz – one of those two could play the right side. Perry has had a good start to the season but he’s faded a bit the last bit and its time, in my opinion, to give Skinner the reps in the top 6 – understanding LT’s thought on why the coach is deploying as is.
They can always make that adjustment with Skinner during the game depending on his performance and of course Perry’s performance. Motivation is the word.
Generally agree with you about Skinner — he’s pressing lately. If he can keep pressing, he’ll put one in and probably go on a tear.
I wonder if the idea of having him on the fourth line with Ryan and one of the Glimmer twins is a chance to play with skill and a defensive conscience. A chance to get a bit of a lopsided matchup and get his mojo going.
The Oilers are at or near the top of the league in various offensive metrics (and net metrics) including offensive zone possession time, high danger chances (as LT mentions, not all are created equal), all shot metrics, etc.
They also show well in many defensive metrics and are top 10 in expected goals against (on the good side) but, well, bottom of the league in the related goaltending metric. As LT mentions, much of that is PK and should turn around but, at the same time, I think the last 6 decent 3rd period-OT high dangers have gone in and none of them were 5-alarm.
Skinner has not been good enough but has save percentage on this date last year was almost identical and he finished strong and won 14 playoff games.
Bouchard and Skinner both need to be better but both have a history of a start like this and finishing strong – in particular Bouchard who has done so many years in a row and his stretch run/playoff level is top 5 elite.
Bouchard was 1.88 GA/60 in the playoffs – 25 games against playoff teams including 13 against Dallas and Florida – playing 3 minute more per game than any other player on the team.
Bouch can be awful defensively but it’s simply not true the he IS awful defensively – he has a high level 2 ways and I hope he starts to get there soon!
Bouchard amplifies the directional arrow of team play, whichever way it is pointing. Bouchard level of play trend follows the Oilers level of play with a much higher beta.
Bouchard is a volatility amplifier on the upside and on the downside.
That’s an interesting way to put it. Also scary
Bouchard is a volatility amplifier on the upside and on the downside OMG this is exactly what I see….
I see this is the new theory of yours.
I would note, this season, Bouchard is:
2.24 GA/60
54% goal share
63% expected goal share
Not sure this theory is based in reality, right?
It seems more like Bouchard does not leak goals against at high rate and drives positive goal share and tilts the ice even when the team isn’t at its best, right?
Excellent post
Same thing applies to every player that has ever laced up his skates, even Connor McDavid.
I think this aligns with both the fancy stats — possession time, HD chances, expected goals etc — and the eye test.
The Oilers have been carrying the majority of the play as of late, and would have even better results if the goaltending had been up to par. There’s been too many games where the opponent’s goaltending has been better.
That being said, Skinner is a solid NHL goaltender and should turn things around.
While I share in the melancholily that’s been going around I am optimistic that things will significantly improve soon.
Time for Rodrigue to get a shot at net.
Question: The season rides on if and when Skinner gets his game right. His historic performance is very short. What if last year’s mid- to end-of-season performance was the outlier, and what we see is his basic performance level? The Oilers team management needs to start actively de-risking this position.
Pick-up NHL quality back-up(s) and keep in AHL to augment Skinner/Pickard?
Another question, they have a young goalie with really nice numbers there and he is sharing the net equally with a 30 yr AHL vet with no performance level that suggests he is anything but an AHL back-up, shouldn’t Rodrigue be getting at bats?
Are Rodrigue’s numbers in the AHL better than what Pickard’s numbers were in the AHL?
I think fans are acutely aware of the floor/ ceiling issue with this team.
Also, the collect skilled veterans approach to team building is fraught with risk. One really hopes that all players perform close to established levels but there is not much in the way of growth potential. Most of the players have an established level of play that is slowly declining but declines can be unpredictable/fast.
At least these are the reasons I am alway a little skeptical of Oilers. And DOD PTSD.
What are the odds on Josh Brown fighting tonight? I think we are around 85% assured of a Brown fight tonight.
Montreal really isn’t an overly physical team.
Arber Xhekaj is 6’4″ 240.
https://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/n270145
Good heavens I stand corrected. And their average weight is 5.4 lbs. heavier.
Also, 6-3-1 in their last 10 and four of those games were without McDavid (including the game he got injured and played 1 shift).
The vibes are in the toilet. I understand the heartburn re: some struggling players including top d-men and tenders, re: blowing leads, etc., etc., however the vibes don’t seem to match the recent point accumulation.
It seems more than ever, every single loss is an absolute catastrophe.
Because people see how they are winning and are concerned that the in-game rollercoaster that LT talks about isn’t sustainable, and even if it is, it makes it harder on the team then it needs to be.
And fans are going to be displeased whenever their team gives away points.
I would think that they use Kulak/Emberson as a full 2nd pairing tonight. Hopefully they get legit minutes and the don’t run the top paid 27-28 with back to backs and 3 in 4 on the road.
Hopefully Arvy is back so they don’t have to go 11/7.
Stecher is clearly ahead of Dermott on the depth chart but I do think they play Brown and Dermott is a leftie. I would note that Brown had been playing the left side in Bako.
I don’t know what to expect from this D-Group without Nurse, a massive loss.
I do know the Habs give up a ton of goals and I expect the Oilers to NOT let a mediocre goalie look like a Vézina candidate. Goal should be scored.
I wonder if they would play Brown on the left side with Stecher, considering how Dermott has fallen out of favor.
Plus, I wonder if they consider splitting up the top pair in Nurses absence.
Kulak-Bouchard Or Ekholm-Bouchard
Ekholm-Emberson Kulak-Emberson
Brown-Stecher
I guess the main concern should be the third pair and the amount of ice time they receive so as not to overtax the top two pairs however they line up.
Ya, I had that thought as well.
Looks like Arvy is still out so they all get to play…..
This might be good to see how the pieces fit together. there are plenty of different options to explore.
For me I don’t expect the sky to fall, I am more concerned that the management will make correct adjustments. You don’t trade S Skinner because of his age, and because they have little depth in the org, and there isn’t much out there that is clearly better
I have the feeling that losing the two to the Blues has more behind it than we can see from the outside, even though it sucks and I think could have been handled better, Holloway with his arm and Bro wanting out. I get why they went after two better 5v5 scorers that were willing to come on pretty good deals, even if J Skinner isn’t ideal, they needed to be better there. I am pretty sure Ryan and Warren are not there because of the playoff GF% results for them
Things are going to come together better, and that they are staying in the race is great. It seems they are still figuring themselves out. I hope they don’t get burnt out
With the loss of Broberg & Holloway it might have been better to at least keep Ryan MacLeod in the fold, instead of the Jeff Skinner acquisition.
That would have needed a crystal ball
Yeah. I hear you. LOL
However, I wonder when they first heard of the possibility of the buyouts.
It was a risk signing Skinner when they already had MacLeod knowing exactly what they had and how he contributes to the team success with MacLeod’s speed, versatility, PK and defensive abilities. I guess we will see if Matt Savoie is worth it?
And Jeff Skinner has never played in a playoff game.
I won’t even mention the age of J Skinner. I’m pro-MacLeod all the way.
Marcel Dionne never won a Cup but he was a great player. Skinner does one thing particularly well and that’s the hardest thing to do in the N.H.L. Kris needs to put Skinner in a position of his strength not the 4th line.
How can you compare Marcel Dionne to Jeff Skinner? My point is Skinner has no track record in the playoffs. So, there’s no telling how he will perform in the playoffs.
Not thrilled about the Brown recall, although he was a serious contributor in their last game with a couple of assists, and this display of what a punching machine looks like…
https://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/n270160
Here’s hoping Brown performs better than Dermott. The physicality may prove to be enough.
I like Knobaluch’s approach. He fades those that deserve it and rewards players playing better, without seeming to de-motivate anyone
They are over playing the top of the roster, not sure how much of a choice they have. It’s been a while since we have seen players actually having to keep their slot, and this much creativity with deployment