The St. Louis Blues are in the city, and will play the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place tonight. The two teams have now made two famous trades, one adding Chris Pronger to the Oilers and the other an offer sheet that turned into a trade and robbed the current Oilers of much of their (minute) department of youth. All our tomorrows will find their own way, but how are the replacements doing?
The Athletic article today is about Leon Draisaitl. He is a mammoth force on NHL ice, and has delivered even more astonishing results since Kris Knoblauch arrived. Article is here.
VASILY PODKOLZIN
Vasily Podkolzin has been a complementary winger on three successful forward lines five-on-five this season. The Draisaitl-Arvidsson (with VP) has a 50 percent goal share (3-3) in 92 minutes with a 57 percent expected goal share. In 41 minutes, VP-LD-Connor Brown are 3-0 goals with a 66 percent expected goal share. Finally, VP-Glimmer Twins are 3-1 goals in 25 minutes with an expected goal share of 64 percent.
Offensively, his 1.53 points-60 at five-on-five ranks fourth (behind McDavid, Draisaitl and Mattias Janmark, obviously) so far this year. Dylan Holloway (1.7) is running in the same range with the Blues, that’s about equal.
Podkolzin is running 52 percent goal share five-on-five, 60 percent expected. Holloway is the oppositve: 59 percent goal share, 50 percent expected goal share.
I suggest Stan Bowman did well here, and that Podkolzin is more than covering the bet. I’m not absolutely certain either of these players are going to spend (the equivalent of) one full season on an NHL skill line, but they’re helping win games for their respective teams. With the understanding that we’ll never agree about matching the offer sheet (I don’t think Bowman could match it, the money wouldn’t work), I give a plus grade on this side of the deal.
TY EMBERSON
Ty Emberson has been paired with Brett Kulak most of the season (224 minutes) and that tandem has a 44 percent goal share (10-13 goals). Recent splits are less encouraging, but they own a 51 percent expected goal share and that’s a positive. Emberson’s major contribution so far has been on the PK, where he boasts a 2.99 GA-60 and 31.34 SA-60. This is 40 minutes and that’s a very small sample, plus PK numbers are highly unreliable. That said, among regular PK defenseman across the NHL, his 2.99 GA-60 ranks No. 4 in 2024-25.
Philip Broberg is the star of this conversation. He is delivering 1.85 points-60 at five-on-five, 7.01 on the power play. He is also motoring along at 67 percent five-on-five goal share. Impressive. Now, his expected goal share (46 percent) suggests we’re dealing with numbers that will regress.
I wanted to have a quick look at Puck IQ, to see what kind of business these men are doing versus elites. They’re all young, so the Podkolzin number has far more to do with the men on his line, but these are the facts and we will state them. I’m going to list DFF percentage, because we want to see how things are going for each individual. We want to remember the samples are very small, and comparing these numbers across two teams is folly.
- Philip Broberg 5:11 (DFF Pct 39.2)
- Vasily Podkolzin 4:53 (DFF Pct 55.6)
- Ty Emberson 3:32 (DFF Pct 40.4)
- Dylan Holloway 3:21 (DFF Pct 41.3)
Podkolzin has been gifted brilliant linemates and there’s no doubt who’s zooming who when he’s out with Leon Draisaitl and or Connor McDavid. That said, he’s playing significant minutes and the numbers are strong. Philip Broberg is playing big minutes versus elites and he is close to even relative to teammates, but the Blues would do well to back him off a little from these five minutes a game evenings against elites.
Bottom line: It’s the same as it ever was.
We fight and argue, argue and fight, but most of the NHL is populated by placeholders who keep the hyenas at bay until the difference makers get on the ice. The single biggest piece of info here is that Podkolzin did enough to get ahead of a few veterans and secured a cherry role. What does it mean in the long run? Not one damn thing. The four men here are all NHL players, but their roles (and jobs) are not yet at a level where either team can consider their presence on the ice crucial at any point in any game.
New for The Athletic: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ farmhands in AHL Bakersfield are a unique group
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5976481/2024/12/07/edmonton-oilers-2024-ahl-bakersfield/
https://x.com/hockeystatcards/status/1865633443486322952
Come on, Broberg was lucky not to responsible on four goals against.
The McDavid goal was a giveaway, but part of it was Parayko and Broberg still being unfamiliar with each other. Broberg ended up in no man’s land and tried to clear the puck through two players. Clearly not his finest moment.
The OIlers first goal was a blown St. Louis line change which allowed Perry to reach the front of the net from the opposite side of the ice to Broberg uncontested. It wasn’t Broberg’s fault, it was the screwup at the Blues bench.
The stat card demonstrates that the Broberg pile-on is a bit overstated.
The Oilers are playing well right now.
Parayko kept Broberg afloat. Broberg had 2 egregious giveaways to 97 and 29, one ended up in the back of the net. Thats before we talk about his general poor coverage throughout the night and the pen shift where he contributed nothing to Holloway’s goal.
Holloway had a decent game but stats here were probably inflated by a few Ethan Moreau low percentage shots that he took (and his line in general took). His best shift was the goal shift but he basically was the beneficiary of a nice pass.
Are you this stubborn that you’re going to resort to HH type trolling? I also sincerely wonder if you are a fan of the Oilers with your incessant rattling about players who have left our team. How about the win? How about the fact that the Oilers have procured very impactful players from other teams who are part of our current group? You don’t have to wear rose colored glasses but your lack of nuance about the team and its management is glaring. Be happy for a win, cheer up a little!
More whining about Boreberg?
*Yawn
Same as it ever was…
Broberg got worked last night I need a chart to match my eye test.
I said it at the time, Troy Stecher at $787,500 for two seasons was a huge value contract – zero risk and the potential to be some serious value.
He is no world beater but he’s giving the Oilers 15 minutes a night at evens of solid hockey.
Saw the interview with him. Seems like he’s got his head on straight. And thoughtful answers, not just the cliches you get a lot of times
Weird game. Shot total didn’t tell the story. Oilers had 5 in, should have had 5 or 6 count, and the way Skinner was playing, it should have just been the one against (the decision to give a 5 on 3 after essentially putting the whistles away was baffling).
Officiating even worse than normal last night. Continues to make NHL look bush league.
Lots of attention on Holloway and Broberg tonight, but when the game is on the line, those two were on the bench. Not on the first unit 6v5, neither on the top PP.
It was a mistake to lose these guys but they are depth players, even in St. Louis.
Broberg gifted McDavid a goal too, maybe he was feeling nostalgic.
Broberg played the 4th most among the D (both at evens and overall).
Holloway the 5th most among forwards at 5 on 5 (and 6th most overall).
They were both deployed as middle of the roster players tonight I would suggest.
Broberg was awful defensively tonight.
They can’t all be Picasso. #PlayLaBambaBaby
Nice to see the boys hold on to a 3rd period lead.
If you ice the puck with the goalie pulled you shouldn’t be able to put the goalie back in for the faceoff. The players on the ice must stay. A simple rule that either needs to be changed or enforced.
Binnington was back in the net at the time
Oilers with the better goaltender tonight – I won’t say he “stole the game” but he was a material part of the win, one primary reason they won.
I do think the Oilers were the better team until the last 10 minutes, despite the shots.
Skinner (both em them really, but specifically S. Skinner) with another great game tonight.
Very unselfish play by Bouch to put that in to the corner and ensure he got it deep. Chance to score but decent chance he wouldn’t have got it fully deep.
True, but with a 2 goal lead, these players need to take the fricking shot rather than passing it in the middle of the ice with giveaways. All other teams do it from way further away and it often goes in
If he puts in on net given the two bodies between him and the net, its likely coming back fast the other way – he got it deep in the corner.
He made the safe play and I think that is notable
I agree, I was referring to the other time they made it to center ice and decided on an east-west pass that got picked off, instead of shooting at the net
So guessing Hill will be team Canada starting goalie….
Talbot and Thompson deserved the other 2 spots by all metrics.
Brown still got stone hands
Hill will be the Canada game 1 starter
Troy puts the Blues on a stretcher with a prescient puck play.
St Louis goal differential so inflated. Hollaway skates up the outside and takes so many nothing shots on net.
Why are we criticizing a guy who has 8 goals in 28 games, 7 of which are 5v5?
I too was pissed about the OS, but that’s shaping up to be a very good season.
BOOM!!! Lady Luck says “eff you, NHL!!” Sketch gets it on net!!!
Lady Luck was actually quite cruel to the Oilers tonight. Many missed nets, the disallowed goal, and several missed calls, including the missed trip of Bouchard concurrent with the Ekholm hit
Imagine if Skinner let in THAT one…..
Imagine if he does that against the US….
In a 4 game tourney Binnington’s inconsistency is not welcomed
STECHER YOU MAGNIFICENT BASTARD!!
Potential goat to pseudo-hero on a a weird one!
Thank you Troy!!!!!!!
Skinner has to get up tight to that screen. Too deep
It was 5 on 3 essentially. He gets up tight the back door is open for tap ins.
Yah I get that. Would still like to see him bubble out on that one.
Or don’t take 2 pointless penalties!
Skinner didn’t take two pointless penalties but he had to play goalie with only 3 skaters helping him out.
Thanks tips
Broberg is lucky not to be dash 4 today….. he’s been brutal defensively.
Didn’t he give the puck away to Draisaitl for that breakaway?
Yup and I think he was on the ice for either the Brown non-goal or the Kapanen post too (can’t remember which one it was).
Ott was a disrespectful POS who put others on the ice at risk constantly. I hope someone fires a puck into that bench.
Man he was a dirty rat
Massive block by Nurse.
Holy mackerel. That’s as weak as it gets., musta gotta call from head office to make the game more exciting.,,
NHL is happy
So much for a boring 3 rd period……
That was a massive block by Emberson.
Weak, catch-up penalty.
And another one
How is that a penalty? He wasn’t turned to the boards? He was sideways? Eks hit him in the shoulders? That happens to players 20 times a game. Not Eks fault he’s bigger and stronger…
Take off the blue glasses. It’s late unecessary and on the numbers. Imagine if that’s to 97
I saw it live. Replay shows it was worse than I thought I saw. Crappy deal.
Helmets shouldn’t fall off that easily.
Half the guys on the ice have floppy helmet straps
Oh that’s fine material there by Ekholm.
Dumb
Those should be automatic major and a game
Take it easy, tennis fan.
Hockey is a contact sport.
We’ve gotten sloppy. Gotta change that up and put these guys away.
Too Puck focused in D zone. 97 also in photo
Thought it was a luck pass that found him but we had chances to move the puck before that and wiffed. Gotta be sure in our zone.
Now we will here from godot
Was gonna comment on how careless the blues are with the puck but Brownie does that…sheesh…be better, brownie…
Blues have had a ton of giveaways in their own zone that we haven’t capitalized on
Jesus, guys. Bear down!
So here’s hoping Oilers lock it down in a boring 3 rd period and win 4-0 with an empty net goal with both Holloway and Broberg on the ice….
Attack, attack, attack!!! It’s what we do best!
Didn’t see the first but the second was a pretty damn good period. The effort, awareness and attention to detail on defence are stellar!
When Bouch is engaged and using his legs he is pretty damn good on the defensive side.
Mcdavid still has his top gear engaged. Drai is slick and seems huge out there. Hyman is a timex. Skinner looks calm.
All good things.
Buchnevich. Was that Michaels having trouble pronouncing his name over the final minute of the 2nd? Hahaha.
I like that he puts a little Russian twist into the pronounciation
Correct me if I’m wrong but that horn marks 4 periods in a row now where Skinner hasn’t let in a goal?
Bouchard anything but bad defensively this game – in fact, quite the opposite.
Take that Doug Armstrong!
If only shutdown defensive expert Parayko was killing that penalty…
Just like last year. Early struggles on the defensive side, then more games and his defending picks up.
I see 13 official shots but think their scoring chances is close to that numbers……
On the positive, Binnington’s Save % down to .897
Well they keep missing the net!
Hyman with the “abuse me for free” sticker somewhere on his jersey…
Kapanen’s speed (with a touch of skill) is a noticeable addition.
Ironic that Drais wingers pre season were to be Arvidsson and J Skinner and are now cast offs in Podz and Kapanen.
It’s true. If Skinner keeps his recent form and Arvidsson returns and they can eat up 3rd line competition with Henrique, that would be great, too
His speed that enables his separation with that shot, Draisaitl passes were nurtured for such a player type.
That’s a beaut Clark
BOOM!!! Hyman from his office!
Beauty of a PP goal
Rhyman Hyman takes a licking and keeps on ticking!
Amazing zone entry – great PPG!
Why they arguing that?
Clearly a penalty……
Because they’re idiots. The same reason Torts complained about “diving” when their players were tripping others
The refs’ aversion to give a team up 2-0 a PP always amazes me
Game management at it’s worst.
Only a league run by bell ends would think “let them play” was a good idea
Hey, one of those guys was in the last picture, right?