I’ve been thinking about Jeff Skinner in recent days. If I made a list of wingers who the “coach didn’t trust enough to play a feature role” despite high-octane offense, Skinner would be high on the list based on ability. Now, he doesn’t have the future of Miro Satan on the day Glen Sather traded him, but the Oilers are in ‘now’ mode and Skinner has averaged 30 goals per 82 games since the start of the 2021-22 season. Will he find the range in Edmonton? Probably. Is Kris Knoblauch hurting his team’s chances by fading the veteran? I don’t believe that to be true.
The Athletic article today is about Stuart Skinner, shot and goal suppression, and Kris Knoblauch’s coaching staff. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 4-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 17-10-2, 36 points in 29 games
This little home stand is going to tell us much about the rest of the season. Stan Bowman, Edmonton’s general manager, has to be impressed by the elite players on his roster, the role players who were here when he arrived, and his additions to the group. Vasily Podkolzin, Ty Emberson, Kasperi Kapanen and (one assumes) Alec Regula have been low cost solutions for the team and reflect astute player evaluations by the organization.
This leads me to the reason why I think Skinner might have a hard time getting hired on an Oilers skill line. Skinner’s problem? Vasily Podkolzin. The big Russian owns an expected GA-60 at five-on-five (1.87) that ranks No. 1 on the Oilers and No. 7 across the NHL among regular forwards. On his own team, the gap between Podkolzin’s performance and the second-best Oilers forward (Connor Brown, 2.12) is a significant gap.
Podkolzin’s actual GA-60 at five-on-five (1.71) ranks No. 4 overall. If you look at the top 12 forwards on the roster at five-on-five GA-60, you get a pretty strong connection between playing time and GA-60:
- Adam Henrique 1.54
- Leon Draisaitl 1.64
- Connor Brown 1.70
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.71
- Mattias Janmark 1.77
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.61
- Zach Hyman 2.85
- Jeff Skinner 2.98
- Connor McDavid 3.03
If we’re playing along at home and guessing about Knoblauch’s deployment of the roster, we can see immediately that Podkolzin’s suppression efforts have been rewarded (via luck and skill) far more than Skinner’s work.
The Draisaitl line and the Henrique line are doing well in goal suppression, and the McDavid line is doing well in expected GA-60 five-on-five, not so much in actual goals surrendered. Here are McDavid’s numbers, GA-60 (XGA-60) with each of his regular wingers so far this season:
- McDavid-Hyman 2.88 (2.16)
- McDavid-Nuge 2.88 (2.16)
- McDavid-Draisaitl 1.67 (2.14)
- McDavid-Kapanen 2.40 (2.49)
- McDavid-Skinner 8.74 (3.04)
Small sample size for McDavid-Skinner, but Knoblauch moved off the duo and had success elsewhere. He may not get back to that tandem anytime soon, especially when we’re looking at the expected numbers with Nuge and Hyman. Just for giggles, let me run Skinner’s totals with each of the main centers on the team:
- Skinner-Henrique 1.18 (3.14) in 152 minutes
- Skinner-Draisaitl 2.96 (1.97) in 61 minutes
- Skinner-McDavid 8.74 (3.04) in 48 minutes
- Skinner-Ryan 1.63 (2.49) in 37 minutes
So, based on the numbers, Skinner’s ideal spot on the lineup (based on deployment) is running luck with the Henrique trio. Knoblauch has found a Draisaitl line that is thriving without him, a McDavid line that has shown great outscoring in the past (and the expected goals suggest regression in a good way) and Skinner may never get back to a true skill line with the Oilers based on current math.
Also current math: Skinner’s 0.66 goals-60 at five-on-five ranks No. 4 among Oilers forwards who have played 300 or more minutes. I’ll suggest Skinner is lurking now, waiting for his chance. I’ll also suggest that Knoblauch is a major “it’s what you leave” coach ala Craig MacTavish and the coach has enough things working to avoid chaos or perceived chaos. I want to see Skinner with McDavid, but that math slaps back, albeit in a small sample.
JOSH BROWN
Josh Brown has been recalled by the Oilers. We don’t know about Evan Bouchard yet, but it sounds like the absence due to injury will be short term and I haven’t seen anything yet to indicate he’s out of the lineup day. Missile avoided for Edmonton.
Spender Knight started tonight for the Panthers so the Oilers will be get Bobrovsky on Monday evening I would think.
He’s rocking a .892 (Skinner up to .897).
Demko’s return has been good for the Oilers 🙂
Just looked at the box score. The Dys defence is a dogs breakfast outside of Hughes. Where did they get these guys?
Woof, so is Boston’s D. Of the 4 goals I saw, there were 1-2 Demko might have had in better form. Lankinen is definitely the best option at the moment, but they have no choice but to play Demko
I am amazed at LA’s record. Very mediocre roster and no Doughty.
Ditto for Flames. Even more mediocre roster although not as good of a record. Kings have a history as a good team so can probably sustain their record to an extent. But Flames likely to fade away eventually.
I think the Flames implosion has already begun.
That Eichel play was so dirty. But he did it twice in that second period. He does this thing where he kicks the other players skates to throw them off balance. He did it to Henrique early in that second period but thankfully further away from the boards
Unbelievable dirty. More surprising they changed there mind and took him out of the box
I don’t think they changed their minds I think Eichel assumed he received a penalty.
Summarizing!
Day pitched his 2nd shutout of the season, stopping all 16 shots he faced in a 4-0 win. He was named 1st star for his efforts.
Wakely netted his 13th goal of the year.
Määttä, Clattenburg, and Nicholl each collected an assist.
Münzenberger, Fischer, Berry, and O’Reilly were held soupless.
Stonehouse did not dress.
30% of Kaprizov’s goals have been into an empty net.
Amazing. EN goals should be excluded from RR consideration.
Yup. Maybe I’m biased because Leon and Connor won’t shoot at the empty net unless it’s staring them in the face, and no teammate is in sight.
Last year’s EN goal leader was Crosby at 7, and Kaprizov is already at 6 only 30 games into the season. Kucherov set the record for most empty net points in a season (14) last year, and I suspect that record will be broken again this year.
Rantanen with 2 EN assists and MacKinnon with an EN goal for some more stat padding tonight
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/how-empty-net-goals-have-changed-the-nhl
It feels like VGK stopped Lavoie chance at NHL paydays.
I wonder if Lavoie and his agent are still overjoyed at him being claimed as some suggested.
Every pro athlete has to make their case. Sometimes it’s not fair. Nature of the beast
His crappiest contract is much more than average Canadians earn
In the AHL?
I am still undecided if I enjoy Jack Michaels as a play caller..
I think as it’s been suggested by someone else, Bob Stauffer doing colour with Cam Moon doing the play by play would be a better dynamic.
hear you. I am not a hater of Jack just unsure at times 🙂
They could always go back to the other guy, be careful of what you wish.
Yup that was me. Bob knows all things Oilers and a lot more
Cam has the same vibe but less over the top and being a former player has more to offer
Bob will also call out bad plays as he did with Stu this aft
I actually cannot stand either of them. It is as if they are interviewing for a national job. They speak of really nothing specific about the oilers and do nothing but praise the competition. Screw them.
Jack seems like a nice guy but I would much rather prefer Cam Moon. Jack’s fawning over Louis shtick is too much game after game for me.
Jack Michael’s is hit and miss but for me Louie Debrusk is an awful colour guy and I’m tired of him calling games. He offers zero insight and analysis.
Louie is a good interview for a podcast, but color for a national broadcast is not his thing Ferraro is the standard
This 2 game run of minny and vegas is a STATEMENT!
Vegas is a damn good team, watching them just reminds we need all the depth we can afford to keep.
Kane please come back mostly healthy.
I know Gudas wont be coming here $$ wise but would anyone like someone like that on the blue? haha Kane, Gudas equals kahonas
Jeff Skinner please hitch a ride on the i can score in this league train please.
Not just Minny and Vegas, but also a damn good team in Tampa and some schadenfreude in beat St Louis. This run has been incredible to watch!
agreed !
Pacific Division is the only one with 4 teams with P% > .600 – the Dys, with .625, are well ahead of any other 4th place team at the moment. No telling what will happen with the wild card spots and WC crown, but there’s a good chance they’re going to have to beat 2 of the Pacific teams in addition to Minny or whoever makes it out of the Central
A crazy row. Some TOUGH teams
Not a minny fan whatsoever but I do like those throwback Northstar look jerseys
Skinner with a big goal as I was having flashbacks of the miracle on Manchester. I still think Jeff scores 20 as he’ll streak sooner or later. Jeff-Henrique are going to score some big goals on our Cup winning roll through the Playoffs.
Could Skinner be our Phil Kessel? Seems to fit the mold of having a defensively suspect 30 goal scorer playing on the 3rd line…
Needs whistle dogs, stat!
That’s the perfect analogy
I second that… He will score, hopefully starts now.
He’s got 6 in 30 which is on pace for 16. If he had one more goal he’d essentially be on pace for 20.
If he stays healthy I think 25+ is good bet.
On the third line.
Is that a compliment or a criticism?
25gf-10ga, they’ve been a 5-2 team on this 5 game run.
A 5-2 team, Bruce, with an aversion to empty net goals!
The Oilers weren’t a loose team, they just couldn’t score 5v5. It seems they have found some changes
Much higher quality plays being made. I am very happy. Perry being out so much speaks to the coaches instructing this is how you do it
A 5-2 team in a 3-2 league…
I would also like to note that Connor McDavid was very quiet in this game and the Oilers still scored six and won by 3 goals….
Skinner was better than Hill in this one.
Even though he looked like a double agent at times. His goal posts were working for him.
lol double agent indeed!
Mega congratulations to Nurse, on yet another brace of points today.
Are you saying that he’s armed with will and determination, and a brace too?
Brace = Two a kind. Old English origins, this word. I picked it up from watching English football.
A brace of arms
Tragic
ally Hit
This reference is fabulously rich.
A tip o’ the hat.
OK, now that we don’t have to listen to the broadcasters, aside from 26 seconds and a gifted goal, the outcome was never in doubt. Even with the longstanding NHL rule that VGK cannot take more than 2 penalties a game
Skinner played very, very well. Vegas was shooting from the parking lot but there were tons of dangerous shots that he made look routine. 39/41 on shots he was in the net for 🙂
All lines rolling. PP goal and good kill.
Great job settling things after the Skinner goal.
13-4(3 without the gaffe) against 2 of the best in the WC. What’s not to like?
Florida is the next fun test, and then they need to take care of business at home
Great run by this team
As for shooting from the parking g lot… our very own grampa Perry shot & scored one from Wetaskiwin. Loved it!
Where trucks cost less!
Great points.
If we just split the next two games then this will be one hell of a span of games for the Oilers.
This may be a span of mostly home games, but the Oilers are facing some of the league’s best and coming out on top.
I still don’t understand why HH can’t come onto Lowetide to help us all understand how Vegas in fact won the game, if only on a cosmic level.
Say his name 3 times and he pops up out from under his bridge instead of waiting a day after the Oilers perform a beatdown.
Basically a Mona Lisa, ’til someone spraypainted graffiti all over it.
#PlayLaBambaBaby
Jack and Lou sound like they’re trying to justify their lost bets to the wives at home. Completely heartbroken
This game even better than the last one. Vegas are a first class quality team.
Oilers took Vegas on and gave them a fair kicking.
We have all read/heard some thoughts that the Oilers recent streak of wins against top teams should be mitigated due to some injuries and what not – they caught breaks with the schedule.
It should be noted that, today, the Oilers beat the prior 3rd best team in the AHL, who were rolling at 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, playing their starting goaltender and were 100% healthy, no injuries.
The Oilers did so missing their 1/2LW and 2RW.
Well guessing they should beat AHL teams…..
Whooops….
Haha OP you are too excited over the win! Was a sweet one though.
The Oilers are back!!!!!!!! Play La Bamba baby!
Fire that puck Corey!
McDavid and co. need to have Brown and Janmark’s mentality with the empty net
Personally I would love to see Ekholm crush Eichel before the end of the game.
Jack would like you to know that the play has been closer than the score would suggest — that Vegas is playing well and didn’t give up when down by 5.
It’s very important that you know that.
Some Knights might feel sad. But they shouldn’t be sad.
Because the play has been closer than the score suggests.
Did everyone get that?
He should mention that again.
Isn’t it true?
Not even a little bit.
Too many sore winners in here.
It’s not about being a sore winner. It’s about a broadcast team that can’t balance a fair review of what’s going on on the ice and informing viewers as to what’s happening to the Oilers.
The Oilers are on a win streak, and now in the last two games beaten two of the league’s top teams. Vegas is fully healthy and on their own hot streak.
The Oilers beat them both.
But all those two guys could talk about was that Vegas was trying hard.
They’re paid well to do a job, of which we are consumers.
Questioning their ability to do so doesn’t mean we’re being sore winners.
What a damn idiot.
Thank you, Skinners!
For sure, this is only 1 game.
Methinks the Oilers and Knights like playing each other.
I was going to say that Knob should call his TO to rest his tired players but I don’t think that’s allowed any longer after an icing….
I don’t care about Vegas’s feelings when they get on the plane ffs
Condors complete the choke and give up the tying goal with less than a minute left and the goalie pulled.
5-5
Sorry, NOW its complete as they lose in OT!
Chaulk up another loss.
Did you watch the game?
Can you provide your opinion on Chaulk’s mistakes leading to the loss?
Jack and Louie will be giving us an in-depth preview of the Knights’ game against the Wild after the next commercial break.
I don’t want utter homers’ calling Oiler games, but they’ve only talked about the Knights all period. I do want them to make an attempt to discuss the Oilers’ play this period.
In their defence, they do lack the self-awareness to realize what they’re doing.
No complaints here. They are laying it on thick. Let them score an ENG and make it more lopsided
I’ve really enjoyed these kinds of broadcasts from the other side. I mean, sometimes I watch Detroit or Chicago feeds and they can do nothing but praise the Oilers, and give detailed commentaries on what they know about the Oilers tendencies and weaknesses.
It’s interesting how in places like Detroit and Chicago the standard of exposition is so high.
Ty Emberson, probably.
I like Emberson just a little more every game!
I don’t know, I was defending Jack Michaels but I’m finding him very irritating.
I don’t find him irritating, but I tend to keep the volume pretty low.
Definitely this game, I find all the praise for Vegas irritating. He is showing a clear neglect for score effect. I am fully expecting to hear some Oilers boosting in the next few minutes
My bad LT and apologies… emotions got the better of me on that play and post.
Great set-up by Kapanen, too bad Hill made the save on the Drai one-timer.
Ya, only Kapanen and Henrique without a point from the forwards
For all those saying Michaels is giving Vegas too much credit, it’s true. I don’t want too big of a homer announcer, and its his job to keep people interested in the game even when its lopsided
Don’t think anyone accusing Louis and Jack of being homers…..
I do believe they are genuine fans of the team, based on their excitement displayed. I would personally never get bored praising the skill and will of these players, but I do also want to learn about the other teams and their players
There are two good choices – an enthusiastic booster, or a true straight-up announcer.
These clowns are neither.
Lou was an enthusiastic booster until the clowns that watch Oiler games because of McDavid but aren’t fans of the team gave Lou his marching orders to become a full time doubter.
K, that was a little much. Cassidy should be discouraged about how they’ve played. They have been full value for all 6 goals against thus far, and were gifted a goal
Nice to hear the crows with some Stu chants on that save – I’m sure he likes to hear that, support after that mistake.
Condors had a 5-2 lead and that game is 5-4 early in the 3rd.
Its might have even been 5-1, I can’t remember.
Loose!
More than one way to Skinner that cat!
Just a massive massive goal in this game given momentum.
This game really swings between tight and intense, then LOOOOOSE.
Good time for the other Skinner to show up!!!
This is emotional turbulence
Oh Stu… Howden you let that happen?
HUGE goal for Jeff Skinner.
Thankfully he’s not benched.
Thankfully Adin Hill stayed in for the 3rd period.
Skinner won’t miss from there. Get it to him there.
Skinner…!!!!!!!!!!!
(the other Skinner)
WTF??
Oh, no, Stu!
This game might be “put to bed” but, for certainty, do so on the PP in the first minute of the period!
They’re doing it wrong.