One of the important aspects of evaluating young players in the AHL is correctly projecting them to specific roles. Projecting David Pastrnak was easy a decade ago (what the hell was he doing in the American league???) and Scott Laughton, too. Iiro Pakarinen was off to a hot start, and he was 23. Maybe not room to grow, but possibly an NHL option in a middle-six role? He got a chance, and scored a couple of impressive goals. He was never in danger of becoming a Jordan Eberle replacement.
Pakarinen was a reasonable bet, and would have to be judged as a success. He played 134 games with Edmonton over four seasons. Pakarinen scored 27 goals in 66 Bakersfield games, and delivered 10 in his NHL time with the organization.
I think it’s important to separate the “skill” forwards from the “complementary two-way forwards” when discussing minor-league teams. Sometimes the projections will be out of time with reality (Tyler Pitlick) but most often we can identify the skilled kids.
If the skilled kids are playing a pure offensive role in the AHL, chances are they are playing in the best league they’ll ever reach. Matthew Savoie was an outlier, from the David Pastrnak family of hockey players. These young men are destined to reach higher ground.
Bakersfield’s skill forwards next season (among the signed group) include Quinn Hutson (23 goals in 38 Hockey-East games), Viljami Marjala (44 assists in 52 Liiga games), Matvey Petrov (nine goals in Bakersfield, his pure talent suggests he could double that total), Roby Jarventie (52 points per 82 AHL games, 22 in his most recent 24 games in the league), James Hamblin (19-26-45 in 51 games one year ago with the Condors), Noah Philp (19 goals in 55 games in 2024-25).
There’s a truth about all of these players, perhaps save Jarventie. They are in a ‘pool’ of AHL talent that could get them NHL employment for 134 or 268 games (that’s one or two Pakarinens) if things break right.
However, there are things about their games that will keep them from the NHL this fall. Hamblin has speed and AHL scoring skill, but lacks NHL size and has not delivered offense during NHL auditions.
Philp has goal-scoring ability, PK experience, size and reasonable speed. He qualifies as a skill player, while also bringing enough bullet points on a resume to find his way in the NHL. Among the group listed above, with Jarventie the acknowledged outlier in the group, Philp is my pick to play at least one Pakarinen in the future.
Most of the skilled men will be passed by men like Philp. His range of skill, and his progress in the AHL, is the template for conversion from minors to majors.
If we make a list of forwards who came out of the Oilers draft after the first round (since 2012), played a significant number of games for Edmonton’s AHL team over the last decade, then played 134+ games in the NHL, we would have a list two deep.
Jujhar Khaira, Ryan McLeod. One was a rugged center with size, the other a speed demon with skill. Do you see anyone like that above? Jarventie may well make it if he can stay healthy. For Hutson, Marjala and the rest?
History recommends they make an impression early. And often.
I would have to say Yakapov was the last time we had shooter on the same train as Howard. Not many players mesh with Connor. Howard is unique in that he has the quick release he has the skill-speed and hopefully hockey IQ to form the best line in hockey with Hyman flanking the other wing
I’m not convinced that he’s going to be able to beat goalies in the NHL from distance like he did in college but I really hope that skill does translate – kid loves to go blocker side – he’s a smart shooter.
If we’re to stay at the top of the food chain either Savoie or Howard needs to immediately pop hopefully both. Bowman needs to be right about Frederic becoming that eventual 3rd line Centre now that O’Reilly is gone. We need a few of these darts to hit and stick for the next few years. Podkolzin-Tomasek-Jarventie-Hutson-Akey-Samanski-Leppernen-Clattenburg-Regula-Emberson
Can’t say I agree with these black and white must-haves.
It would be great if one of Savoie or Howard popped right away but its not a must – Oilers have a ton of options that can play in the top 6 if without forcing those guys if they aren’t ready – doesn’t mean I don’t see one, or both, of them having impacts early.
I don’t think Frederic has to be the long term 3C – maybe that’s Nuge or, heck, maybe its Tomasek are even William Nicholl for all we know.
McDavid can see and execute almost every angle on the ice. This is why he’s generational.
The ideal candidate to play with him has the brain to drop himself in the empty spot…at the right time…for McD to find him. And then the ideal candidate buries it 99.7% of the time.(Like if McD is rounding the net, winger jumps behind/around Dman for easy tap-in.) He also has to have some speed, some size, and some grit…ideally all of them but not necessarily.
Perry’s brain carried him to McD mins in the Stanley Cup final. Way too slow to play on that line though. Maybe Perry in his prime was the ideal player for McD…pretty close.
Nuge plays there because of roster compilation…not because of ideal fit.
Henrique showed glimpses of the ideal candidate, finding the spots and even potted some goals. But we know the fit isn’t even close to ideal.
Podz is better with Drai and provides energy/speed to the other top line. New year maybe changes that.
Kane should have thrived, maybe he’s aging too. Injuries sadly derailed his initial momentum here.
Skinner even played some ok mins there I think. But again, he is not an ideal candidate for that spot.
Hyman is as good a RW this roster can provide for now. (Not too shabby I’d say.)
I can’t say Howard fits all the “qualifications” I listed above….but if he finds those spots and pots a couple early…we might have a gooder here. I’m hopeful this kid has the brain…he’s already got a helluva shot.
or…KISS.
Nothing against Maroon, but is he that cerebral a hockyer? is his game that evolved?
I thought I knew for sure what Oiler rookie had the most goals as I vividly remember Anderson getting 30 and Kurri getting a easy 32. I thought Arnott who had unbelievable 33 was our Oilers rookie leader. Even the old guys will get stumped on who has the most goals as a Oiler rookie?
Omark vs Pakarinen.
Omark was more skilled, and after his time with EDM and BUF put up 57 points in the KHL. Even in the NHL, playing mostly in the bottom half of the forwards, Omark managed to be a 0.4 PPG player over 79 NHL games. Pakarinen only managed 0.17 PPG over 134.
There are so many complexities that arise when a young top-6 Euro like Omark arrives on an NHL team and is asked to transition his game to the middle or bottom six. Different culture, different ice size, different quality of competition and teammate, different shoot-out rules. It seems psychologically difficult, and I don’t know that anyone is well equipped in the nuances of this type of transition. Puljujarvi has become another example of this.
Maybe Calle Jarnkrok is going to help, and certainly these issues aren’t limited to just Euros. Howard is likely to find some challenges that align with Omark’s struggles. I don’t think it’s realistic to see Howard as a fixture in the top 6. Nor is it realistic to ask such a young talented man to transition his game to the bottom six. Sometimes a player gets the benefit of the doubt for their freshman season, and then struggles when asked to correct their mistakes as a sophomore.
Based on what I know about the players, Savoie, Philp and Tomasek (based on maturity) seem to have the best chances of creating space for themselves in the lineup. But experience with players like Omark (and more recently Jeff Skinner) make me more bearish than bullish on Howard.
Calle Jarnkrok?
Are you implying something like a 2 for 1 trade of Janmark and perhaps another player for CJ (like Kapanen or Emberson or Stetcher)?
For certain Jarnkrok’s best days are behind him, as he is coming off an injury (groin & sports hernia surgery) that limited him to 19 regular season games and 12 playoff games. He also missed 30 games the previous season and turns 34 in September.
I do not see any good reasons to acquire this aging, undersized, average skating, low offence player. Other than his relationship with Ekholm.
That kind of experiment didn’t work out with another aging and oft-injured undersized right shot former Swedish Nashville teammate of his here last season.
Sorry
Calle Jarnkrok?Brian fart.
Kalle Larsson. Maybe Kalle Larsson can help younger skilled players transition their game,
Lol, makes much more sense now.
When you first posted this I thought you might have had a brilliant outside of the box idea that brought in a player whose team wanted to move him.
I dug pretty deep to make sure I wasn’t missing anything. It’s all good, it was an interesting rabbit hole journey 😀😀.
I’ve said it before. I wish they could all make it. Reality says only a few will. Fandom wishes beyond reality.
I feel similarly. But things still turn out for these young fellas. There are lots of places to play pro hockey, and they can still get really set up if they are smart with their money. Also lots of other hockey related things to do for those at the lower end of ability. I met a guy once that had played pro in Germany for years after junior (undersized D, at that time not a lot of NHL opportunity for that if you weren’t Rafalski). Married a German girl, came back in his early 30’s with a lot of bank, way more than than I had!
I might be stating the obvious but I wonder if Leon’s Dad had anything to do with Samanski signing? I’m really excited about our farm squad as Bowman has brought back Hope. There is at least a chance Bowman may have found 2-3 hidden gems through hard work of his entire team and vision of the scouting staff.
So long as he hasn’t brought back H.O.P.E.
Where were you in 82 when John James Rambo was on the loose?
Lol, All of Hall, Omark, Paajarvi and Eberle were born well-after the Rambo rampage.
Unless you’re referring to John’s younger brother who followed in his footstep 15 or years later or so.
Matheson had reported that Leon had some influence here.
If he adapts well to the nasty AHL I wonder if we see Samanski play on the same line or PP1 with Leon. After Canada I’ll be cheering secondly for the Germans.
Many are a bit down on Philp.
I probably am from where I was a year ago (a BIG booster based off the second half of his rookie pro season).
He showed so well early but never really ran with it when he did get his games. At the same time, he didn’t get a ton of opportunity and he was fine in his NHL games.
I still think a run of 25 games at 4C (or even RW) playing 10-12 with some depth PK work will tell us what he will be and it may be a really solid player.
I’m fine with the Lazar signing but I hope the staff and management truly give Philp and chance and don’t default to the smiling vet.
The more I think about it, the more I really think it makes sense that Janmark is the contract being moved out before the season that Stauff is taking about. He says it’s not Henrique.
A big Centre that’s decent on the draw and P.K’s what’s not to like? I believe if he had more sandpaper than what he’s shown so far he would be a regular. Bowmsn obviously still believes in him maybe Noah is worried about taking a penalty with the conservative K.K.
He’s got good faceoff skills in the AHL but he was 39% in the NHL – something to work on but he’s probably not overly trusted there yet – that should come, of course.
Its tough to show aggressiveness without getting a regular shift but there was only one regular Oiler forward with a higher hits/60 last season (Podz) – Kap as well. He scrapped twice in Bako defending teammates last year.
Philp has toughness.
I worry the org has some kind of concern with him given what they have been doing so far. He fits a need and seems like a good player from his NHL time. He’s aware of what’s going on around him, which the team can use more of. I hope we don’t see them not make a call, he has to get in lots of games to be helpful and uses in playoffs. If they use Lazar ahead of him they should deal him unless he wants to hang around the A some more
I wonder if Marjala has a “better chance” than Hutson? A bit younger, a bit more pedigree (he was drafted), bigger, has been playing pro……
Should we include Samanski in this group of skilled forwards?
In my mind, I have the uncertain players sorted like this:
1- Savoie
2 – Tomasek – despite Kapanen’s blazing speed, I think DT is a superior player. I would not at all be surprised if KK finds himself on the waiver wire in the Fall, behind all of Tomasek, Lazar & Philp.
3 – Howard
4 – Philp
5 – Jarventie (has a chance to play NHL games this season)
6 – Marjala (might need a year before becomng a call-up option, but I have high hopes for this player)
7 – Samanski (he will need at least 1 year in the AHL)
8 – Hutson (I think he is not an NHL option, but might surprise after 2 AHL seasons, but IMO he lacks size, speed and 2-way ability.
I have similar thoughts on many of these players and, until I see something from Hutson, I don’t have him with a real NHL career – I hope I’m wrong.
I really like Kapanen the person and I like the player that we saw for 3-4 playoff games but his NHL history tells us the player we saw during the regular season (and as the playoffs went on) is who we will see and remain annoyed that he got $1.3MM. Its the Janmark re-sign but at least it doesn’t have the silly term.
LT… this whole series you’ve been sharing with us is quite fascinating to me. I think the question I’ve been considering posting for a couple weeks really does need to be asked with the data you’ve provided today. Be warned, I’m going to screw this up, but hopefully not too badly.
Aside from our disappointing list of two above since 2012. Maybe remove this data for the question.
I think the easiest way to ask is if you had a new NHL team that didn’t need to play games until it was full of actual drafted NHL players, how long would it take?
So LT’s theory is two players per draft which is fair. For rounding we’ll say 20 players, so that’s 10 years to complete the team. Enter McDavid and Draisaitl in years say 5 and 6. How many Parkinens need to be replaced after 134 or 268 games, be NHL ready and fill that position. Of course for this LSD exercise we have to assume there’s draft order (rounds 1-7), NHLE, draft by position, best available etc. and for now no trades and the team is full. Also by full I mean that we have a heart of the team by position in LT’s system which I believe is top line, 2C (29), top pair and goalie (correct?). Enter percentage to actually cover the bet in the draft round.
So how many failures would there be by year 10, the season is about to begin. Making matters worse, 97 and 29 are done their ELC but doubtful to ever be replaced. Now we need to build/replace the players exiting after what 12 seasons (574 games) by position? This in my opinion is the hardest part in the exercise. Example Klefbom has a career ending injury, 30% of 1st round picks make it but next years draft you had wanted to fill the 3C role. Big F’n problem.
If you’ve followed so far (your IQ is well above 70), in my opinion it’s almost impossible to build a team through the draft from LT’s posted information over the years and specifically recently. Realistically the last team to perhaps come close is the Oilers entering the League.
Now enter NHL trades. Draft and develop, we all agree. 10 years in, how many players are on your team that were drafted. I suspect its at best for any team 40% draft, 60% trades. Tough sledding to build a team through the draft and have them fill those shoes (position, skillset, games played, and assuming no injuries).
Thanks for listening, looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue, time for another coffee.
I don’t think anyone has ever suggested building a team solely through the draft.
If you go on capwages.com you can see the distribution of players vis a vis draft/sign/trade status.
For example, EDM currently looks like this (change is likely by and during the season):
A quick scan of various teams across the league at different stages of development/contention timelines shows that’s a roughly average distribution.
Good post. The problem with trying to build a great team through the draft is it takes too long. You need to acquire better players through all channels. Bowman is. Trades of well taken make immediate improvements which is critical
I think it starts with a strong directional vision. Just looking for better players might make a better team, but if it’s not constructed well it probably isn’t a championship team
Pakarinen had a major league shot I’m surprised he didn’t score more but he just didn’t have that half second more time to get it off.
I liked that ad where he body checked a zamboni. That was one player I wanted to make it. Hard nosed Finns with skill are a fave of mine. To me the most like Canadian players
I agree about the Finns I do also see the Germans coming on as a no flair hard nosed players to play against.
I don’t think we know yet how Bowman views the farm club. In terms of what he sees as the priority, does he care how good it is?
We have seen the A club disabused by the various GMs. I used to be more interested in the prospects, but after so little success with developing better than replacement level NHL players, and so many having been dealt by Holland and before, I only get jazzed by a few
Bowman acquires a pretty wide range of players. Some of Bowman’s prospect acquisitions to me have a very small chance of even making the NHL, because they are smaller and/or like the Finnish D Leppanen are known as one way players. Or have the boots issue. The playoffs, especially later, are not kind to those players
The early acquisitions to me were players that had pretty solid NHL chances. Savoie is small, but he was a 10th pick, high end abilities. The later ones are more iffy or low chance to me. Perhaps the idea is get talented players and make the Condors a really good team, and maybe get lucky with a long shot prospect, or not
Guys like Samanski, Jarventie to me have a high chance (if healthy) because they have all of the NHL tools, but many of the players I see as long shots will probably do well at the AHL level and help the team.
Curlock thinks Akey will have some kind of NHL career because of his skating, I don’t see a great chance of him being a top 4, or not for long. He and Leppanen are the same size, I don’t think Akey has high end enough skill to offset his lack of NHL size. Those D types don’t impact in the NHL, and cling on to mediocre or worse careers if they even stick. Leppanen’s skill was really top end last season in that league, it might translate and that would cover the size bet. But I wouldn’t put any units on that
There were quite a few small D drafted a few years ago when the lemmings were chasing ‘modern defensemen’ because Makar is so good. Just like when teams like our Oilers were Lucic hunting, chasing real outliers. Most of those small offensive D have not panned out, and we see the lemmings have cooled their jets drafting them, at least with higher picks
Acquiring undersized skill makes sense if it’s about bolstering the Condors, just getting the most talent you can for them, like Hutson for example. It doesn’t make sense if it’s about the Oilers in any serious way, we’ve been down that road, and also down the coke machine trail. I hope we’re not heading back to wasting assets on players with low odds of helping the big club
I agree with this.
If you cross your eyes hard and for long enough, we might be thinking similarly today.
One would hope he views the farm team as an incubator. It would appear with the restocking efforts.
Without gauging things too deeply here’s a screenshot of the AHL affiliate from his time in CHI (2009-2021).
Thanks. Not sure what to make of it without researching the Hawks and Hogs
It’s a starting point.
And I think the key thing to compare here is the championship window relative to the “success” of the farm team, when the NHL club is trading picks and generally selecting deep in the round.
The Bakersfield situation in one question.
Can one envision the Bakersfield coach as a future NHL coach?
Q.E.D.
I’m less concerned right now about Chaulk. Bowman has my trust because he has been balanced and active. If it’s a bad fit he will make a change, but he won’t until there is someone he sees as an upgrade, which is the right plan
The AHL bench should be the pipeline for the NHL. Reinforce and reward merit at all levels.
Chaulk did a fantastic job with Matt Savoie last season.
I’ll be more impressed when it’s players like Nicholl, or Lewandowski, etc who step into the show ready for action.
I don’t see Chaulk amongst the ilk of a Nelson, or a Woodcroft at developing players.
Time will tell.
The only real prospect forwards he had to work with last sesaon were Savoie and Philp.
I’ve never thought Grubbe had an NHL future and Petrov, well, Chaulk has really advanced his 2-way game and, before he got hurt mid-season, he was starting to come on strong.
We’ll see.
That’s encouraging about Petrov. Interesting player, he is. Team is overdue to hit on a late round pick at forward, but he’s fading.
Looking forward to how the roster shakes out to start the season in Bakersfield.
Hutson, Samanski and Jarventie are the kids I’ll be watching for opportunity.
I’m very excited for this Condors’ season (although I almost always am).
I’m hoping only to have AHL views of Regula and Jarventie for a short period of time (couple of months max).
No idea what to expect from Leppanen but I’m hoping Chaulk and McCambridge can teach him some needed structure – from what I’ve read/heard from trustworthy sources is his offensive skill are legit NHL but he’s somewhat of a rover out there.
I guess Regula and Lep are d-men and the blog subject is forwards so I’m on a tangent but excited for the AHL season.
Crazy as it sounds, I’m more interested in the Condors this upcoming season than I am the Oilers.
The Pitlick lads and where the likes of Griffith and Petrov wind up in the lineup.
It’s an interesting group of forwards they’re amassing.
Griffith, does he strike you as the type to go straight into coaching when he hangs up the skate? Wonder if that’s in the mix for him in Bakersfield?
Couldn’t really opine on Griffith – its not as uncommon as it used to be but video of players doing media in the AHL is not readily available – lots of post-game video/pics from the dressing room but not alot of interviews.
I do hope they spell Griffith from the strong side half boards on PP1 and give that opportunity to one of the real prospects – be it Jarventie or Hutson or Marjala or whoever.
Petrov could use such opportunities to gain some traction. It’s such a shame that he couldn’t keep his very brief mid-season scoring run going.
As reminder to everyone, Petrov scored 6 goals in a 5 game stretch that started in mid-December. His last goal during this streak was his 8th of the season. He finished the season with 9 goals.
I wonder if he gets traded early in the season or if he is placed in a position to succeed. I really think he could be set up for success if they put him on a line with Marjala, Samanski or the Pitlicks.
My fear for him is bottom 6 minutes.
My subsequent comment is awaiting approval?
I don’t understand…
To be fair, Petrov got hurt while in that hot streak and wasn’t able to find that form upon return (with a decimated team).