I love getting new math on prospects, especially far away players who we can’t see much. Around April-May of each year, some math genius drops the numbers and projections for various leagues. This year, it’s Pick224 math. The information isn’t perfect, and doesn’t resemble previous years, but it gives another angle all the same.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Oilers should protect these 8 skaters in the Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The good, bad and ugly of the Oilers’ last 15 years of free agent signings
- Lowetide: Why you should be worried about William Lagesson’s future in Edmonton
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering the goal that made Fernando Pisani a cult hero in Edmonton
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2016 draft remains an enigma, with a glimmer of hope
- Jonathan Willis: The parallels from the fall of Alexander the Great and the 2006 Oilers
- Lowetide: 5 AHL forwards who offer the Oilers a chance to buy low on real talent
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Agape’: Why Oilers prospect Cooper Marody wrote a song about Colby Cave
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
PICK 224 AHL (PRIMARY POINTS-60 ESTIMATE ALL GAME STATES)
This is estimated points-per-60 in all game states, so that’s Bouchard, Benson, Currie, Yamamoto above, their power-play numbers are included here. It is primary points, so first assists and goals, and expressed in estimated 60-minutes format. The takeaway for me? Marody and McLeod. It’s go time for those two centers.
PICK 224 DISTANT LANDS (PRIMARY POINTS-60 ESTIMATE ALL GAME STATES)
I’m fascinated by the Russian, have to say. He’s an undersized skill center and he isn’t playing in the KHL, but that’s a fine number the young man posted. He’s a player to follow. Lavoie’s number is impressive in the QMJHL, Puljujarvi’s in the Liiga. Broberg has a pulse.
I’ve always felt the trade made sense, still do. Jesse Puljujarvi in Manhattan, where he could spend his early 20’s grinding his talents into a useful pain in the ass winger who scores 15-20 goals. I know a little about Rangers history and if I could give JP a gallon of Billy Fairbairn’s style he would flourish for 15 years. Fairbairn could score goals but was a fine checker and he could hit people without taking penalties. Genuine pain, effective player, Puljujarv has about half a foot in height and maybe 50 pounds on him. JP has all the tools to be a monster in Manhattan in a two-way role.
Lias Andersson had a good run in the SHL (12 points in 15 games) and he’s a center. Speed has been the issue, so there’s some Anton Lander in him, I think the Oilers would need to get a pick to make the deal close to even and I wouldn’t make it. That and a toonie gets you a coffee in Alberta today. Rangers have two first-round picks and a pair of third rounders, I’d keep Puljujarvi.
If the Rangers offered Andersson and a late first, would Holland pull the trigger?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy, fun but difficult morning begins at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will join us to talk about Father’s Day, his podcast this week and a ghastly story involving all manner of abuse in the CHL. Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic has written a massive item on NHL free agency and Matt Iwanyk will tackle MLB’s latest. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
When someone asked the other day who the Oilers should try and purge off of Buffalo, Ullmark was my answer. Solid bet if cheap.
Hopefully Holland is calling. Ullmark looks to be to be a little bit better bet than Georgiev, and likely the price tag is lower than what the Rangers seem to be asking.
I don’t agree with that. It’s possible Konovalov becomes an NHL goalie but it’s not at all reasonable to expect IMO.
He was worse under MacT for sure but even if he’d recovered to .925 that would have been average among 38 KHL goalies to play 20+ games. The full season reality was he finished 31st of those 38 goalies in SV%. Expectations should not be high.
Comparing their 20 year old seasons is relevant to the point that Konovlov will never be as good as G is today. He was arguably better at 20 and drafted. G was in drafted I believe. He regressed badly early under MacT and a struggling team and recovered through the year.
He’s an early 20s goalie with a reasonably projection to become an NHL 1B as G is now.
No, he’s not relevant to obtaining a current NHL goalie but that isn’t the point I was responding to.
If Linus Allmark is on the block I wonder what it would take with a fragile team like Buffalo. On the day the league was suspended Buffalo was scheduled to play the Habs If they would have won they were in and nobody would have been fired.
Thank you.
Yes, there’s virtually nothing we can rule out from being a possibility.
And yes, they both had strong 20-year old seasons. Georgiev has gone on to establish himself as a decent NHL goalie. Konovalov followed it up by regressing badly.
Reconciling the KHL/Liiga doesn’t really matter. You’ve got a guy who’s established himself as an NHL goalie and a guy who was an overage 3rd round draft pick who regressed post-draft.
Konovalov really isn’t relevant to any discussions of the Oilers obtaining an NHL goalie, IMO.
No he does not need to be protected. A NTC restricts trades. A NMC restricts movement including AHL assignments, exposure in expansion draft, etc.
I wouldn’t trade Bear for Georgiev in a million years.
For Puljujarvi. I like him but I think Andersson AND a first is a great return. I’d add to Puljujarvi in that deal too but the plus matters obviously (Puljujarvi + Lagesson would be two thumbs up IMO, for instance).
The valuation on Georgiev (by the Rangers also) just seems out of whack to me relative to his historical performance…
Expansion draft wise, Koskinen has modified NTC (provides a 15-team list). Does he need to be protected in the Seattle draft? I guess that would make it difficult to trade for an heir of any note….
Well it’s no shame being rated behind Shestyorkov. His numbers do consistently pop off the page. You scan his history and a large majority of entries have something above .930 attached.
Groton does need to make a difficult decision between between Lundqvist and Georgiev though. Reja mentions the expansion draft. Even if Groton chooses Georgiev there’s a decent chance he’s plucked. There should be some motivation to move him…
What Georgiev’s number mean… I’ve already said I don’t really know either. There’s no .930 seasons on his resume though. His NHL numbers are absolutely fine. His AHL numbers are considerably worse (.909 and .883). His 2 recent NHL seasons where he actually played saw him 20th of 48 and 25th of 45 goalies in SV% (30+ games). I dunno..
Sure, Konovalov may never reach Georgiev’s current level, but, of course, he very well may or may even surpass. Their numbers in their age 20 seasons were very similar, Konovalov in the KHL and Georgiev in Liiga – I don’t know how to reconcile between the two leagues though.
jp,
I’d have a hard time sending away Bear for him as well.
But I’d want more from JP than LA and a late first (especially if there’s a significant+ coming from us), so looking at their roster he’s most appealing and likely available if they don’t buy out King Henrik.
How many goaltenders is Francis allowed to pick? If I’m Holland I target the goalie and do some horse trading with Francis. I was thumbs up with the Smith signing last year I knew he would calm the D and the team down in the rough patches starting with the Buffalo game and the make hay road trip after Christmas I believe. I also knew he would be a good mentor for Kosh but the best before date is coming due quickly. I’m still starting him in the first game against the Hawks and taking it from a there, of course all bets are off if he goes on a major heater and gets us to the final against Tampa.
Not sure how many better goalies will be available to Seattle but teams can only protect one and in NYR I believe that will be Shesterkin. Not sure what that says about the value of Georgiev to them but with Lundqvist under contract for one more year and him publicly saying he wants to play there Gorton has a decision to make.
77 games in he has posted .918, .914, and .910.
I have no idea what those numbers mean in terms of projection going forward.
That’s pretty much how I feel (though it’s a super long shot that Rodrigue or Konovalov will be as good as Georgiev is today…).
I’d love to have Georgiev to pair with Koskinen. It would be great. And maybe he does turn out to be above average starter quality. But I wouldn’t pay too too much for him. I don’t see him being a better bet than Scrivens or Talbot were when they were acquired and the price tags were far less than Georgiev’s apparently..
If Neal or Chiasson get hurt or bought out, well, then the other one gets all the PP1 reps.
Yamamoto would get PP1 time before Zack, I would think as well (as he did this year).
He’s had a few years with over 2 min/game on the PK – earlier in his career – he did not produce well.
Zack had a great year but he’s never scored more than 15 goals – I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to be a 23-25 goal scorer in his 30s.
I’m not bashing Kass – great team guy and I want him on the team – I just thing the above is a bit aggresive.
With respect, you’ve been consistently one of the most negative posters regarding Jones’ potential and what he’s actually shown at the NHL level. It’s possible the blind spot is somewhere other than you think it is.
I say this while also agreeing that with the information we have today 7-3 is the best course forward for the Oilers (that is, AA over Jones, based on what we know today). Of course a lot can change in a year.
~ Ah but HH was waiting for Speeds to confirm ~
That’s odd given the link posted was to an article from yesterday….. which we talked about.
Something about his lack of “pull away speed”…..
There’s no question he’s a good replacement for Smith and has room for growth. He’s 24 though and his numbers are solid but I don’t see any of them popping off the page. Of course I’m no Kevin Woodley either…
I don’t recall exactly what the Rangers ask for him was. But you kinda suggested he might be equivalent/preferable to Andersson and a 1st (maybe that wasn’t entirely intentional). And another poster mentioned Jones or Bear for Georgiev…
I don’t know. Definitely would be nice to have him as 1B (with a chance to be more) but I’d want more for Bear or for the 2017 #7 and a first this year.
The Return to Play Agreement is likely to contain an player opt out option.
Hockey may be more likely that golf – bubble/quarantine/hub vs. not.
I’m still astonished that Jones is at $850K for the next two years.
Its like he signed that deal and then popped the very next day.
More popping to come potentially as well.
What happens if Neal or Chase get hurt, bought or traded I believe Kass is next up for parking his ass in front of the net on the number 1 PP. If he’s effective which I believe he would be laugh all you want but he could easily score 23-25 goals next year.
This was indeed true for the Oilers this year as far as TOI/G (all situations):
Rusty was 5th at 16:46
Neal was 5th at 16:18
*Might* not in phase 3? In US cities and wherever else the players are managing 5.5% positivity?
As you said no phase is perfect. Ft. Benning had one case transmit past 14 day quarantine and the 650 cohort then suffered a 22% attack rate.
Once you get the rock rolled to the top of the hill last thing you want is hotel staff or the bus driver dropping a spark. These aren’t BSL3 labs. Background can matter.
[Little know fact: On his off days Sisyphus empties the ocean one bucket at a time.]
Now do, say, Ethan Bear, with his career earnings of $1.2M (pre-escrow, pre-taxes) and who will be signing a contract in the new NHL economic landscape….
Agree but there shouldn’t be cases in the bubble.
Participants in Phase 2 are not in a bubble – they are in society.
They may need to make phase 3 bubble-like – player may not be able to go out and about town during training camp.
Yup, Kassian has value on the ice – not sure of value for dollar if he’s bumped down to 3RW – don’t get me wrong, his speed and size with skill at 3RW will (would) be awesome but I’m not sure it will be $3.2M of value – it might be though – can he produce with Soderberg or Staal or Andersson or Marody or Sutter?
That’s 5.5%
For reference purposes last week Alberta’s voluntary surveillance centres in Edmonton and Calgary had 4 positives from 11,341 tests.
That’s 0.035%.
That’s the point. it’s going to be very hard enough to continually weed out the covid that these players bring into stage 3 and stage 4 #benningeffect. Once you make progress you can’t afford ANY introductions from outside even the bus driver. These players are currently in high transmission backgrounds. The sooner they are looked after by staff from low transmission backgrounds the better.
Yup, if Jones continues to develop and is looking like a legit 2LD after the end of next season, they cannot expose him at $850k.
We’ll see where we are in a year, however, Jones becoming a legit 2LD, if it happens, would “allow” for a trade of the Klefbom or Nurse.
No, at this point, I don’t want to trade either and I’m not saying that Jones will be able to fill their shoes – there may be a drop off at 2LD if Jones fills in for one of them but the cap relief will be massive and, of course, the trade will be for value.
Maybe Jones is the one to be traded at that point, however, at some point, if Jones keeps developing, something will need to give – without even taking in to account Samorukov or Broberg on the horizon and even Lagesson and maybe even Lennstrom – older pros.
From accounts, the Return to Play agreement is likely to include an “opt out” clause for players.
Why would that signal “bye bye playoffs”.
Players testing positive at this stage is fully expected – they are out and about in regular society along with the virus.
That won’t be the case in phase 4 (and likely not phase 3).
Pretty much agree – as per my earlier posts, way too many moving parts over the next year to really put any sort of pin in it – development of guys like Benson and Jones, potential bounce-back of guys like AA, re-signings of Nuge, potential acquisitions to add to protected list, etc.
As of now, AA is an Oiler. It cost them 2 second round picks but that is now irrelevant going forward.
If he has a shit year again, he’s exposed notwithstanding the acquisition cost.
Look forward, not back.
I’d be comfortable with him as a 1B with Mikko for the next two years while Rodrigue and Konovalov continue to develop (Skinner and even Wells too I guess – you never know who will “pop” with goalies).
With that said, I wouldn’t give up too much for him – he seems like a solid 1B or high end back-up but that type of goalie does not generally warrant much on the trade market – of course, very young for a goalie still.
What if Jones proves to be a legit every day 2nd pairing d-man and AA rebounds to 25G?
What a problem to have…..
Shit, what if Benson proves to be a legit middle six NHL player in his first year in the NHL?
What if Jones is one of the ten best? Then 7-3-1 isn’t protected the best, no?
Yes the NFL has 3 times as many players any approach ( a huge bubble) before the Vaccine is ready will be difficult for the NFL. With less people in the NHL I believe they are a lot tighter with the union than the NFL. The one thing the NFL has over the NHL is 20 times more clout money talks.
PGA is more at risk than the NHL will be once they get to stage 3/4.
PGA is flying all over the country and, I believe, the players can do what they want in society – much different that a quarantined hub cut off from society (once they get there).
Would you consider trading Bear for Georgiev? I’m not at all sure…
These positive tests are not unexpected – the players are out and about in general society which will not be the case in Phase 4 (hubs) and likely not the case for phase 3 (training camps):
https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1274126142119837696/photo/1
NHL says 11 players have tested positive for COVID during stage 2 out of apx 200 players that have been tested multiple times.
jp,
I’m no Kevin Woodley but I believe he’s well regarded by close observers.
I remember him making us look pathetic when we played NYR a year or two ago. And he’s coming from the Allaire Goalie Factory. I think at worst he’s a good replacement for Smith and has time to grow into the starters role or be a quality backup.
Interesting indeed, thank you for the Link!
I am having a hard time with their take on Drysdale as the number 3 D.
Robbins is intriguing, but this is quite a take. I can see him as a late 1st.
If Holloway is available when the Oil pick, which I doubt, he would be my pick. He will be a helluva player in 2 yrs.
Also no Askarov in the 1st round is hmmmmm
LT,
Hockey Prospect in January didn’t have Seth Jarvis , Tristin Robins, and Ridley Greig ranked in the top 31 . Huge climbers .
https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft-center/2020/hockeyprospect.com
https://hockeyprospect.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/
As per my earlier post, its too early to be determinative on this as so much is in flux including how Jones’ game progresses.
If Nurse or Klefbom miss substantial time and Jones proves to be a legit 2LD option – him at $850k as oppossed to one of AA or Kassian at over $3M is not that easy of a choice.
What if Kassian is 3RW for most of the year at $3.2M?
I believe his statement was because the NFL is not contemplating a hub-approach – a much different set-up.