Left Wing Unlocked

by Lowetide

One thing the 2019-20 season and playoffs showed everyone: Edmonton’s devotion to having a physical winger playing alongside Connor McDavid can’t be accomplished without also having a strong two-way winger on the other side. That’s going to be a priority during the offseason.

The Oilers at left wing have had some great ones, Messier before he moved over, Esa Tikkanen, Craig Simpson, Ryan Smyth, Taylor Hall, Nuge if he stays. Ken Holland had some interesting comments at his year-end presser, and left wing was part of the conversation.

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KEN HOLLAND TALKS ANDREAS ATHANASIOU

“It’s going to have an impact. When we made the deal for Athanasiou at the Trade Deadline, it was looking like the cap was going to be a minimum of $84 million to a maximum of $88 (million), depending on the percentage that the union wanted to uptick the cap. Certainly, that’s going to affect the decisions we make this summer. There’s a real possibility that this pandemic is going to affect what we do. I had a relationship with Athanasiou in Detroit. We were trying to bring in more offence. Athanasiou’s impact wasn’t as good as I hoped. I’ll assess here over the next six-seven weeks leading into the off-season.”

There were 372 regular forwards (31 x 12 players) in 2019-20, basically any forward who played 400 or more minutes. First-line Left Wingers would land in the top 93 scorers (Nuge was No. 57) while second line wingers would land in the top 186 (Ennis was No. 114). Third-line wingers meant slotting in among the top 279 forwards in five on five per 60. Nygard was No. 277, Athanasiou No. 278. Technically, both men were third-line scorers. AA scored 0.59 goals per 60, good for No. 231 among regular forwards (again third-line production).

This is sorted by shot differential, Nuge is the only clear keeper in the group although Nygard has signed a contract and Benson is pushing up from the AHL. Edmonton could move on from all of Neal, Ennis and Athanasiou. What if the club bought out Neal, and signed Ennis to a value deal?

This saves $6.8 million (Neal’s buyout saves $3.83M for the next three seasons and not signing AA saves $3 million) and allows Edmonton to contemplate life with Mike Hoffman or other.

That represents high octane offense on the top two lines (Hoffman-McDavid-Kassian or other, plus Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto) and the best first-shot scorer on McDavid’s wing since he got here. I’m recommending a two-way winger who can help on the jailbreaks the other way.

Coleman is in Tampa Bay, and he isn’t available, but he’s a fine example of the player type I believe Ken Holland may pursue (perhaps along with a scoring Hoffman). As you can see, Coleman is no slouch offensively and those numbers would spike alongside the captain.

Coleman had fantastic numbers in New Jersey, reflected in the Puck IQ totals: 41.8 percent of his five on five time against elites, 51.60 DFF percentage and 12.8 percent (!!!) DEF Rel percentage with the Devils. That’s some exceptional living dangerously. Coleman isn’t coming to Edmonton. Who is most like Coleman and available? We’ll have a look in the coming days.

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godot10

OriginalPouzar:

With that said, Dubas is in the need for RD and toughness, does Nylander for Larsson, Puljujarvi and, say, Lagesson get the conversation going?

OP goes all #HockeyFutures on us. Nylander for Larsson, Puljujarvi, and Lagesson. Ha Ha Ha

Nylander is going for a proven top 3D, if he goes, not for a defensive D one year away from UFA, and two unproven prospects.

Larsson for Anderssen. Both with one year left on their contracts. Both good at what they do. Both fill a need for each team.

Todd Macallan

OriginalPouzar: I’ve opened up to a potential Larsson trade but, of course, will remain committed to the position that Holland would need to get a legit RD replacement – I’m against going in to the season without 3 RD ahead of Bouchard (and Jones/Russell don’t count, they are LD) and, in particular Bear, Benning, Bouch isn’t good enough – with no actual NHL 4RD option.

With that said, Dubas is in the need for RD and toughness, does Nylander for Larsson, Puljujarvi and, say, Lagesson get the conversation going?

Interesting. The ever elusive 3 for 1…..

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965:
I’m really starting to lean towards a Larsson trade rather than Russell. Larsson will actually get an asset in return and his health is very concerning. He was off for five months and then plays one game and is out with back spasms. Not good.

I’ve opened up to a potential Larsson trade but, of course, will remain committed to the position that Holland would need to get a legit RD replacement – I’m against going in to the season without 3 RD ahead of Bouchard (and Jones/Russell don’t count, they are LD) and, in particular Bear, Benning, Bouch isn’t good enough – with no actual NHL 4RD option.

With that said, Dubas is in the need for RD and toughness, does Nylander for Larsson, Puljujarvi and, say, Lagesson get the conversation going?

Munny

JimmyV1965: That’s not exactly reassuring.

but better than the way it was originally framed.

JimmyV1965

Munny: maybe that was the reason for them

That’s not exactly reassuring.

€√¥£€^$

Bling:
Put me down for holding on to AA.

He’s an intriguing player. Even if he tops out as a 3rd liner, having a guy who can score EV goals from there is an asset.

This is a one unit PP team, which makes it all the more essential that credible even strength scorers are found.

I think Holland’s comments were one part honesty and one part negotiation.

I was a big fan of this acquisition, but I can’t see a fit. Not only does he try to go through 2-4 guys, he is also a lousy defender

I was hopeful, but I’ve given up hope on AA fitting this roster. Outside of him maybe clicking with JP, I don’t expect good results from him.

€√¥£€^$

pts2pndr: The reality is we really need a right shot centre. Right shot centers are gold because they are hard to find. There should be a right shot centre available at 14 and that in my opinion should be the pick.

If Kenny can get more 2nd Round Bullets, Tristen Robins and Jack Finley are bonafide RHC prospects.

€√¥£€^$

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Yeah, there’s a lot of appeal to the player despite some of the weaknesses. He seems to have the tools capable to play the Faksa role relatively quickly. Perhaps he could even reach Koivu or- gods willing- Couturier heights.

This kid will emerge quickly, IMO.

If he fixes the hitch in his stride, he’ll have a Patrice Brisbois-like career.

Munny

€√¥£€^$,

Nor is Lundell a likely candidate to play in the A next year.

If the A plays.

Munny

JimmyV1965: He was off for five months and then plays one game and is out with back spasms.

maybe that was the reason for them

€√¥£€^$

tavvey tune: I agree, but we already have 2 cheap RH options in-house: Haas and Marody.Someone said the other day that Haas should be “working like a demon” on his draws.I’d say the same about Marody, in fact, I’d Mac-T them and give themboth a summer/fall challenge.There’s an NHL spot waiting for the one that can win draws and provide some offense.
There’s no excuse for not working your ass off on it, considering what the captain went through last summer.If that doesn’t motivate them, maybe the fact they have one year left on their contracts will.A guy facing that, who doesn’t take the challenge,you walk away from.

Lundell is LHC

JimmyV1965

I’m really starting to lean towards a Larsson trade rather than Russell. Larsson will actually get an asset in return and his health is very concerning. He was off for five months and then plays one game and is out with back spasms. Not good.

Munny

Gerta Rauss,

Whew.

Good start to the playoffs for Perry.

Gerta Rauss

Corey fnckin Perry with the sweet pass and Dallas wins it late

Munny

“Radulov was feeling the shame in the box…”

–Dallas coverage team

Gerta Rauss

Munny:
Toby fnckin Reider

LoL

Just you watch, Lucic will score the tying goal and Talbot will pick up the win in overtime

It’s been a tough 2020 for Oilers fans

Munny

Toby fnckin Reider

jp

Material Elvis: The math doesn’t suggest a top 6 forward;those physical tools can often mask a lack of skill.I would be aiming higher at pick 14.

Yeah. Sometimes those tools translate too, but lots of times they don’t.

The NCAA/Big-10 NHLE is a little higher than the OHL/WHL but not by much. If he’d scored 35 or 40 points in the CHL (which is what his numbers translate to, roughly) then I don’t think many here would be suggesting him at #14.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Material Elvis: Seemed more like sarcasm to me.Is that considered passive aggressive?

Sarcasm, while it may be subtle, is intentionally aggressive. Passive aggression denies the intent while still leaving the target of their aggression feeling diminished.

godot10

Bling:
Unbelievable that Fedun shattered his femur and went on to a fairly productive NHL career.

That’s Hollywood stuff.

When all the Dallas D went down last year, Nelson must have mentioned Fedun to Nill, and they dug him out of the Buffalo farm system.

Material Elvis

I’m not convinced on Jack Quinn either. He put up big numbers this year but is almost 19. His 17 year old season was not that impressive.

Material Elvis

jp: Having a look now. Not that many guys drafted out of college so I’ll look at 1st and 2nd rounders.

2020
?? Holloway 0.49 PPG

2019
none

2018
#4 Brady Tkachuk 0.78
#8 Quinn Hughes (a Dman) 0.78

2017
#25 Ryan Poehling 0.37

2016
#14 Charlie McAvoy (a Dman) 0.68
#15 Luke Kunin 0.94
#26 Tage Thompson 0.89

2015
#2 Jack Eichel 1.78
#5 Noah Hanifin (a Dman) 0.62
#8 Zach Werenski (a Dman) 0.71
#39 A.J. Greer 0.19

2014
none

2013
none

2012
#38 Phil Di Giuseppe 0.65

2011
#47 Matthew Nieto 0.59

2010
#21 Riley Sheahan 0.46
#31 Tyler Pitlick 0.50

So Ryan Poehling and Riley Sheahan are the only other 1st round forwards drafted in the past 10 drafts (there were only 6 total though) who scored less than 0.5 PPG. I dunno, I wouldn’t say the math is strong on Holloway.

The math doesn’t suggest a top 6 forward; those physical tools can often mask a lack of skill. I would be aiming higher at pick 14.

Material Elvis

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Passive aggressive response to an allegedly passive aggressive comment.

Seemed more like sarcasm to me. Is that considered passive aggressive?

Benign Bone

Bling,

Yeah, it’s REALLY surprising how well the OIlers have fared in identifying or producing bottom-4 NHL Dmen over that decade. Had they been lucky enough to stumble onto a Giordano (maybe Whitney could’ve been that guy), maybe we’re singing a completely different story around these parts.

Benign Bone

Bling,

Yeah, it’s REALLY impressive how well the OIlers have fared in identifying or producing bottom-4 NHL Dmen over that decade. Had they been lucky enough to stumble onto a Giordano (maybe Whitney could’ve been that guy), maybe we’re singing a completely different story around these parts.

Benign Bone

Bling,

I think what he showed us is one part disappointing, one part hopeful. Disappointing that he didn’t immediately fit with Drai or McDavid and take off. Hopeful because he showed some capacity for driving play alongside less skilled linemates.

If we can upgrade on Sheahan for him next year, I think we could have a potential Grabner. Maybe he even learns to PK over time and becomes even MORE like Grabner, too! This franchise has a LONG history of giving up on guys too soon; let this not be another example… unless of course you’re offered a legitimate player that (potentially) fills a more pressing need (Jarnkrok, Lehkonen, Faksa, etc) then sure.

Bling

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

Goes to show you how far skating ability will take you. I remember that being Fedun’s calling card as a prospect.

I’m always so happy to see former Oil prospects finding success. It hurts a bit, but you spend all this time following the Feduns, Gustafssons, Marinos, and Chorneys…you almost feel like a proud papa when they get their time in the sun.

I still feel that way about Schultz and Petry.

Man Petry is good.

Add D man factory as a bizarre by product of the Decade of Darkness.

Bling

Put me down for holding on to AA.

He’s an intriguing player. Even if he tops out as a 3rd liner, having a guy who can score EV goals from there is an asset.

This is a one unit PP team, which makes it all the more essential that credible even strength scorers are found.

I think Holland’s comments were one part honesty and one part negotiation.

Benign Bone

Bling,

Last I checked, he was actually a pretty damn effective 3rd pairing guy, too! I’m happy for him!

Benign Bone

pts2pndr: The reality is we really need a right shot centre. Right shot centers are gold because they are hard to find. There should be a right shot centre available at 14 and that in my opinion should be the pick.

I actually lean towards a RC myself, but I don’t think most of the guys around there map as Cs when they reach the NHL. Both Jarvis and Mercer strike me as Ws and there’s something about Mercer that feels off to me. Among the reasons is that some of his dekes seem to be almost like out of body experiences where isn’t in control but happens to find the puck at the end of it.

I’m not all that worried about the distinction of LC vs RC as the main benefit is for strong-side faceoffs which, if you’re great at faceoffs like Lundell is, isn’t much of an issue. I have all the time in the world for Bourque, though!

Bling

Unbelievable that Fedun shattered his femur and went on to a fairly productive NHL career.

That’s Hollywood stuff.

BONE207

OriginalPouzar: Thanks for logging in for a passive aggressive personal shot.

It wasn’t actually. Lately you’ve been adding comments like: I may be wrong, I’m only guessing or it’s just speculating.

I was agreeing with you…?

jp

OriginalPouzar: 0.5 PPG in college in a draft minus 1 year is quite impressive, no?

Having a look now. Not that many guys drafted out of college so I’ll look at 1st and 2nd rounders.

2020
?? Holloway 0.49 PPG

2019
none

2018
#4 Brady Tkachuk 0.78
#8 Quinn Hughes (a Dman) 0.78

2017
#25 Ryan Poehling 0.37

2016
#14 Charlie McAvoy (a Dman) 0.68
#15 Luke Kunin 0.94
#26 Tage Thompson 0.89

2015
#2 Jack Eichel 1.78
#5 Noah Hanifin (a Dman) 0.62
#8 Zach Werenski (a Dman) 0.71
#39 A.J. Greer 0.19

2014
none

2013
none

2012
#38 Phil Di Giuseppe 0.65

2011
#47 Matthew Nieto 0.59

2010
#21 Riley Sheahan 0.46
#31 Tyler Pitlick 0.50

So Ryan Poehling and Riley Sheahan are the only other 1st round forwards drafted in the past 10 drafts (there were only 6 total though) who scored less than 0.5 PPG. I dunno, I wouldn’t say the math is strong on Holloway.

Reja

Hey Nurse, Kass and company if your watching the Stars, Flames game that’s what big boy playoff hockey looks like.

geowal

Nice to see Taylor Fedun still getting NHL games, in the playoffs no less

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Material Elvis: I don’t read OP taking personal jabs at other posters.Maybe I missed something but he is usually the one on the receiving end of the needling.

Passive aggressive response to an allegedly passive aggressive comment.

Material Elvis

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: The irony here is simply irresistible.

I don’t read OP taking personal jabs at other posters. Maybe I missed something but he is usually the one on the receiving end of the needling.

Buddy

dustrock: Is hockey the only sport where being a skill team is not necessarily an asset in the playoffs?

Maybe soccer in the Euro and WC tournaments.

NHL: Offence and skill sells tickets. Sh*tty refereeing creates championships.

Or something.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar: Thanks for logging in for a passive aggressive personal shot.

The irony here is simply irresistible.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Team cannot walk away unless the award is over the threshold for that year which, for this year is apx $4.7M.

There are rules on what evidence can be presented at the hearing and Andreas would be able to present his 30 goal season.

The fact that many of us are concerned he could get awarded more than $3M (and Holland is apparently also worried about it) suggests he’d likely get over $3M on the open market. (this isn’t in reply to you OP, but that was suggested a few times earlier in the thread).

OriginalPouzar

BONE207: You probably are…

Thanks for logging in for a passive aggressive personal shot.

OriginalPouzar

tavvey tune: Can the team walk away from an arbitration award they don’t like?I wouldn’t think the player should expect a big raise if all DRW could get for a big, very fast winger, one year removed from a 30 goal season, was two 2nd round picks. That should tell him he doesn’t warrant a big contract.
Nobody could outbid our offer for a forward with that kind of profile?

Team cannot walk away unless the award is over the threshold for that year which, for this year is apx $4.7M.

There are rules on what evidence can be presented at the hearing and Andreas would be able to present his 30 goal season.

Benign Bone

OriginalPouzar: or Lander heights…….

Sure, that’s always a possibility just as being a bust is a possibility for every pick. The point stands.

Lundell posted 28 points in 44 games alongside some absolutely STERLING possession numbers in the Liiga as an 18 year old while Lander posted 10 points in 47 games in the SHL as an 18 year old. There’s noticeable difference in scoring pedigree that we would be unwise to ignore simply because “skating concerns” remind us of Lander and his “skating concerns”. His skating concerns are more specific to his agility and changes of direction than his explosiveness, acceleration or top speed.

There’s a gradient of two-way C that includes plenty of the Landers of the world as well as the Faksas, Eriksson Eks, Koivus, Horvats, Staals and even Couturiers. I’m not saying I support picking him over anyone else, but he shouldn’t be ignored because “Euro C with skating concerns” have bitten us in the past.

jp

OriginalPouzar: 0.5 PPG in college in a draft minus 1 year is quite impressive, no?

Caulfield was 1PPG in his draft plus 1 year, I imagine Holloway would spike to similar counting numbers.

Concern: Will there be an NCAA season for him to play in?I believe the Ice hold his CHL rights.

I don’t think it’s particularly impressive. Pitlick was exactly 0.5 PPG and picked #31… It’s worth a look though.

Keep in mind my comment was in reply to suggesting he could play with Connor this December. I don’t think he’s a bad pick. But I also don’t think he’ll be playing in the NHL in Draft +1.

OriginalPouzar

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Yeah, there’s a lot of appeal to the player despite some of the weaknesses. He seems to have the tools capable to play the Faksa role relatively quickly. Perhaps he could even reach Koivu or- gods willing- Couturier heights.

or Lander heights…….

OriginalPouzar

jp: Holy moly, the kid just scored 0.5 P/GP in college.

That aside, how many guys drafted in the teens step right into the NHL? Sure you can find a few examples but it’s exceedingly rare.

0.5 PPG in college in a draft minus 1 year is quite impressive, no?

Caulfield was 1PPG in his draft plus 1 year, I imagine Holloway would spike to similar counting numbers.

Concern: Will there be an NCAA season for him to play in? I believe the Ice hold his CHL rights.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM:
Re: left wing, Dylan Holloway would be the perfect LW for McDavid. And he’s probably mature enough to step into the NHL in December, too, although with Holland at the helm, that’s unlikely.

Isn’t that exactly what the organization has been criticized for over the years? Not only inserting a fresh teenage draft pick in to the NHL right away but inserting him in to an important non-sheltered role?

I don’t know enough about Holloway to have an opinion on NHL-readiness or 1st line readiness, it just seems like something that the old-regieme was (and still it) criticized for.

OriginalPouzar

Jordan:
Florida is the solution to address most of Edmonton’s problems this off-season.

Russell for Connelly

Oilers get a middle 6 winger who’s signed reasonably for a few years who will make the middle roster better, while potentially being able to find chemistry with one of the top-2 centres.If that happens.. magic.

Also helps reduce pressure on the leftorium.

Florida cuts costs next year and loses a long-term contract going forwards.

Should that trade not work, the Panthers also have UFAs Dadonov, Hoffman and Haula – all of which would be upgrades on our wings and 3C.

The Oilers cannot afford all of them, but at least one of them would be an upgrade – even if it costs AAs money.

I agree that Florida is a team that may be interested in Russell given the owner mandate to cut costs including salary. I’m not sure if a Rusty/Connelly trade would work for the Panthers even with the dollars saved given the huge delta in value between the two side. Oilers would need to add but, yes, for sure, I’d be all over that trade.

Of course, I would think that Florida is likely close to #1 on Rusty’s no-trade list – not a contender, as far away from his preferred geographical local as possible, etc.

Dadanov is a definite target of mine, as he was at the deadline – of course, cap space is not there unless Holland is able to open some up (preferably without a Neal buyout and without losing an asset in AA for nothing or pennies).

OriginalPouzar

Elgin R:
Move on from Ennis. Production and games played in the first half his career were good (0.61 PPG).However, in the last 5 years he has missed significant time and production has had a significant drop off (0.38 PPG).This shows a declining-smaller player who has had injury issues who will be 31 next season.

To my eye, Nygard was playing better as he became more accustomed to the small ice and NHL game.His 0.27 PPG will probably go up as Ennis’s PPG is trending down.Nygard is not 28 until 2021, is signed for next season on a value contract ($875K) and boy is he fast.

Benson looked like a ‘deer in the headlights’ his first couple of games (which he admitted).His play improved during his next short session in the NHL.His 2018 /2019 AHL season with a quality center (Marody) showed that he can not only put up points (0.97 PPG) but also outscore the opposition (+21).Will his excellent board play, passing ability and high hockey IQ get him into the NHL next year?Maybe.

2020 / 2021 Oiler’s left wingers:RNH, AA, Nygard, Neal, Benson.No need to sign Ennis and until Neal is gone there is not

I would still be OK with Ennis back on a similar value contract at the “Gagner replacement” – a guy that can play up and down the lineup.

As far as LW in the top 6, I may be living in fantasy land but I do think that each of Nygard and Benson have a chance to be successful there:

– Nygard based off of success in a small sample size with McDavid (he’s like a Todd Marchant, without the 2-way acumen – chances created due to speed but not a ton of finish but, at the same time, the goals were there for the line)

– Benson due to the exact skill-set mentioned above – he is indeed good on the boards, he does have high offensive IQ and he does have some defensive acumen – totally opposite to Nygard but skills that could mesh with the captain.

pts2pndr

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Yeah, there’s a lot of appeal to the player despite some of the weaknesses. He seems to have the tools capable to play the Faksa role relatively quickly. Perhaps he could even reach Koivu or- gods willing- Couturier heights.

The reality is we really need a right shot centre. Right shot centers are gold because they are hard to find. There should be a right shot centre available at 14 and that in my opinion should be the pick.