The Edmonton Oilers face a fast, skilled group tonight at Rogers. The Toronto Maple Leafs routinely make three short passes to get out of their zone under control and their forwards are fast and skilled.
Oilers coach Dave Tippett has yet to settle on a lineup, the third and fourth lines and bottom two pairings keeping him up late watching Seinfeld or Law & Order reruns. Dave Tippett, it’s time for another edition of “Who do you Trust?”
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: 3 auditioning Oilers who should be given time to find their groove
- Lowetide: It’s time for the Oilers to play prospect Evan Bouchard in NHL games
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi is ready for his No. 1 line audition
- Lowetide: Oilers’ scoring wing prospects having an impact.
- Lowetide: Oilers Kailer Yamamoto is the real deal.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers risers and fallers: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones among those stumbling early
- Lowetide: Oilers goaltending depth in a state of flux.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 3 line has been a source of anxiety early this season
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: First impressions of Oilers after opener against the Canucks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers opening night roster: A player-by-player breakdown
- Lowetide: Oilers risers and fallers and how they impact the opening night roster
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland let it ride in goal for the Oilers this season?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies with a chance to stick after one week of training camp
- Lowetide: 9 bold predictions for the Oilers’ season
- Lowetide: Early roster rumblings as Oilers open training camp
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers training camp: Forecasting the big roster battles
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway’s world juniors work offers clues about Oilers future
THE OILERS IN MONTH NO. 1
- Oilers in October 2015: 3-6-0, goal differential -6
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in October 2017: 3-5-1, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2018: 4-3-1, goal differential -4
- Oilers in October 2019: 7-1-1, goal differential +10
- Oilers in Month 1 2021: 3-5-0, goal differential -5
It’s likely the 2016-17 and 2019-20 teams are already gone, but the Oilers have had some impressive winning streaks over recent seasons. A win tonight puts the 2020-21 crew ahead of 2015-16 and 2017-18. A loss? You could be looking at the least impressive start by an Oilers team since Connor McDavid arrived in the city.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MONTH NO. 1
- At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto, Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 2-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-5-1, 11 points in 11 games
- Current results: 3-5-0, 6 points after eight games
I think it’s early for “must win” but the Oilers need to win two of their last three games before the end of the month. We can assume the Sens game is an auto W, but the Ottawa silver seven tend to be a tough out in this northern town. A big game tonight.
OILERS A YEAR AGO
The goaltending was miles ahead one year ago, Oscar Klefbom was playing big minutes and Ethan Bear was emerging as a quality rookie. Up front, McDavid and Draisaitl were gone baby gone and James Neal had nine goals. The bottom six had the look of a good ship and crew in peril. No one on LW past Leon was pissing a drop, either.
OILERS CURRENTLY
The goalie gap year over year is massive, it’s fair to suggest Koskinen’s workload has had an impact on his results. After nine games a year ago, Edmonton was 30-20 (+10) in goals, had an overall save percentage of .929 and a shooting percentage of 12.3 in all disciplines.
Through eight games this season, Edmonton is 23-29 (-6) in goals, have an overall save percentage of .893 and a shooting percentage of 8.95. The current Oilers are do for a hot streak based on the team’s top-end talent.
The next transaction is likely to be Troy Grosenick added to the roster, and he could play in the next week or so (possibly Ottawa).
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Bell Let’s Talk Day, so we’ll be talking mental health and encouraging you to help raise dollars by doing any of the above between now and midnight. We’re on TSN1260 at 10 this morning with Michael Landsberg from TSN1050 will talk about his journey and the importance of being open about mental health. Frank Seravalli from TSN will talk Oilers, Jim Rutherford and a three-way trade in the NHL. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
How many young defenders will it take to trade for Konecny?
– Boys played hard. Got some bad breaks. Showed some battle. Just need to tighten up. Don’t let up. Pipeline looks good: players know they have to earn ice time. So many waiting to move up. They are starting to gel. Some great teaching moments. If one of this PP goals went in. Koski probably wished he could have a few back. Tough with all the new players that came with no pre-season. There’s a lot of belief. A lot of positives.
Reffing tried to win the Oil the game but goalkeeping and PK lost it.
I’d add PP as well for all the wasted opportunities but hard to put a loss on them when they still end up scoring twice bit they got some serious ref support to do so.
Despite a not so pretty sv% I’d say that was the first one this year that Koskinen truly lost. Showing signs of being worn out the last two games.
Things are looking really grim, overall an ok game but finding ways to throw the game awaw is never a good sign going forward.
The Archibald penalty when you just made it 2-2 and you know the refs are looking to even things out is press box worthy.
To salvage the season they’ll probably have to drive McDrai to the ground for the next few weeks in a desperate attempt to get less murdered in the bottom six. Going with 11 forwards makes a lot of sense at this point. Let McDavid, Draisaitl and at times Nuge double shift on the fourth line with Nygård and whoever is left, I guess Haas when he comes back, would love to see Benson get a shot in such a role but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans this season.
But unless they get special teams into gear any moves 5v5 will just be lipstick on a pig. The way this team is constructed they have to be a quality team on the PP. Can’t count on the PK to be as good but giving up five goals in the last two games is killer, I know officially it’s just two but three were scored just as time ran out so really is due to a struggling PK.
11/7 would also give them a chance to see what Bouchard can do. If he shows well it might be time to see if Barrie can cash some ok bottom six forward. It’s still early in terms of games but he’s not a fit so far and this season is quickly running out of runway.
The obvious move is to reunite Nuge-Drai-Yama but it’s becoming increasingly clear that it’s Tippett’s hill to die on. So I won’t hold out hope for that to happen any time soon.
They’ve dug themselves some hole now. I would argue that the chance to save the season is coming up the next stretch of games. If they can find a way to beat Toronto and then sweep a dreadful looking Ottawa team they are back in the race but for that to happen a lot of things have to start clicking awfully fast. Not looking likely at this point but stranger thingshave happened. Surprise me dear Oilers surprise me.
4.00 ga and flat earthers are worried about replacing offence next yr.
L.O.L.
Aren’t Larsson and Russell rickibox D?
Why are they 4GF-11GA on the year?
It’s 3D chess. Not the 2D kind you play. You just don’t understand is all.
It’s because they’re not paired together 35min a night, rickibox to the moon!
80’s off Dmen (Rovers) = Flat Earth Hockey Analytics.
L.O.L.
less than 2.00 GAA in 4 gm wins championships.
25 years and counting!
What?
There is a plus vote for this? Someone should be deeply ashamed. Ricki is an ignorant fool who thinks he’s a genius.
Over and over again his theories are ripped apart on every ground possible.
Can you turn down the space lasers
Just another thought here, second game in a row where some opportunism would have completely changed the complexion of the game.
Last game against the Jets, Kassian had some golden opportunities and couldn’t cash.
Today, it was Kahun in the first period with two very good chances and an excellent feed to Drai for a deflection. Yamo had a brilliant chance that he knocked wide in the third.
It’s overall a pretty good effort against a very good, and very deep Leafs team.
Yup. It’s a morale victory.
See, the thing is…talented players finish those chances…plugs don’t.
It’s the difference between winning and losing.
You should drop by after a big win sometimes too. The mood’s a whole lot different then. On second thought…don’t.
Big wins are very rare events.
You would miss me.
“You would miss me.”
This could be the funniest thing you’ve ever said.
In case Oilers are going to 3-7 next game, etc,
Anyone want to choose an old timey original 6 team from Canada(2 choices) they lead the Canadian division
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nah, I’m good. You go ahead.
Btw, how’s the Death March coming along?
One the Jets get PLD in the lineup, they will also be in that conversation.
Probably the best game they played this year – and they still lose. Frustrating.
But, it was a morale victory…we just need to be patient. Turris is going to turn it around. We’re playing better every game and eventually those pucks are going to go in…we just gotta bear down a bit…it’s still early and we could have really used those preseason games….
So… we should off ourselves?
Only if the water don’t get you first…?
That’s pretty good 🙂
Leaf fans are out trolling lol
Its probably good that the season started late, so Oilers fans wont have to suffer so long before the draft
Bouchard’s already injury prone with the worst possible back injury LOL just like Larsson this franchise is so fucked.
Nah, they’ll make the playoffs.
Btw, what excuses are looking like being ready for next season? Chiarelli’s cap problems are supposed to be finished, right?
Actually no.
Nuge will be leaving…good luck with replacing him.
The Oilers have zero NHL goaltenders once Koskinen gets exposed this season and will have to spend big money to get TWO.
They still don’t have any top pairing D…and they aren’t cheap.
And the bottom 6 is a hot mess.
Other than that, they’re fine. 🙂
Bright side…at least we are not Buffalo.
Jeff Skinner is only in year 2 of his mammoth contract that pays him 9 million per year!
Jeff has 1 more point than goalie Carter Hutton so far in 8 games.
That contract only runs until 26/27…
Buffalo is 3-3-2 on the season.
While Skinner is an anchor…so are Neal and Kassian.
Tipp didn’t like that guys didn’t get into lanes on the last two PP GA. I agree with him.
I noticed that with Jones. He was really in no man’s land. If he doesn’t feel comfortable laying out, at least rush Matthews.
That’s not going to win you favour with the coach or your teammates.
Anyone got some skates I can borrow?
I can do what 92.5% of those guys do, which is not play NHL calibre hockey consistently or ever, and I’ll be the happiest locker room glue in the world, for making league minimum.
I’ll spit polish Connor and Leon’s skates before every game and practice too on the house.
I’ll also get in lanes even if they’re shooting the puck out of a bazooka.
Because I like winning sports games.
When exactly does the team expect to be good?
Not with generational players
Not with multiple 1st overall picks
Not with a salary cap
Not without a salary cap
Not in case there is a “play in” before the playoffs start
Not in case there is a shortened coronavirus season
Sadly fair questions!
So, who was the worst D on the ice tonight?
Wild Guess- one of the Oilers?
This franchise is incredibly still trying to find its way out of the darkness.
There might still be fans incredibly, still waiting and believing for this to happen.
ps: paging “Harpers Hair”
You called?
Didn’t I tell you so?
Yes I did.
Ha ha ha
Wow that was some display of crap officiating! Called like a no hit international game with amateur ref’s
Ah well….there’s always next year?
We need to be patient…
I tell you what, this isn’t very good.
As good a game as they played tonight the team needs to start winning these. 3-6-0 is quite a bit of a hole. And no soft spots in the schedule it seems!
As LT sagely wrote, in what is now the quote of the season ‘…then YOU are the soft spot’
Sigh, new reclamation players, seasoned GM and coach, stars in their prime, Canadian division…still turning out as always.
Yup, great quote by LT.
I don’t know. They looked good tonight, they just didn’t get it done.
Agree on both counts
They looked good for the most part. Koskinen is getting overplayed.
Fully expecting tomorrow’s post musical accompaniment to be…
“Slip Sliding Away”.
During the DoD my favourite game was to spot the best opposing player not part of that team’s inner core. A juicy trade target who would be an upgrade here.
Ilya Mikheyev is that player from TOR.
Is everybody happy?
Everybody or anybody?
Nice
Good game, they battled.
The Matthews PP goal, Yamamoto missed a clearing attempt and Jones missed one before that.
Jones was also caught in no man’s land when Matthews released that shot.
Yeah. I couldn’t tell if Yamamoto got that puck off the ice or not. Jones made a nice play to chip it to him.
Would have liked to see Jones get in the shooting lane on Matthews.
Saw some signs of life tonight. Turris made a hell of a play on that grenade from Larsson. And Kassian finally got one, although he was pretty much shit up till then.
Liked Jones tonight.
It’s a tough way to lose to a good team.
The first GA was a gift, and I’d argue that last PP GA was as well. Really have to bear down on those.
Archibald -2 tonight and took a penalty leading to PP GA.
How many times do we have to look and see that it’s a bottom six guy or line that is costing the team games?
Tips sleeping on that icing call
Is it just me or can we never seem to establish momentum this season?
Tough to win when you’re constantly on the back foot, or playing reactive instead of proactive hockey.
So predictable, although to the Oilers credit they did try to make a game of it. Leafs in a cakewalk next game.
When do Ottawa come to town?
Saturday
Maybe not. Leafs again
Well, good for the Senators – a team they can compete with!
The battle of the northern basement
Worst part is the Oilers always ‘play down’ to the basement teams.
Leafs on Saturday.
Senators on Sunday.
Senators on Tuesday.
Sens played tonight, off until they the game on Sunday.
Unbelievable how the Oil shoot themselves in the foot when things start going their way.
When the refs are calling such a tight game you can’t take such chances. I’d sit Archibald next game for sure.
Breaking: “Muzzin may have gotten away with a hold”
Kahun creating offence from distance – learning from Nuge I guess.
Completely inexcusable for Yamo not to get the puck out.
This team…couple of mm from the blue line & next thing you know, they are running around the d zone. I seriously need to start drinking game nights
Another turnover at the blueline leads to a chance.
Oilers are brutal at getting the puck out of their end.
Surely one of the worst in the league
Turris with some nice puck skills in the neutral zone now – maybe his offensive game is starting to come?
I remember thinking of Peca being a bust, then he hit his groove and took off. Hoping #8 can… Turris season around.
A much better game tonight. Signs of life at the very least.
Is that you Gino?
Unbelievable….
Kosi looks tired
He’s playing inside of his net
Weird ?
That didn’t last long…again.
Burnt by failed clearing attempts.
Rinse repeat, Lucy pulls the football!
To be an Oiler fan is to suffer
Yamamoto and Jones have to get that puck out. Man.
that was unbelievably horrible clearing attempt by Yamamoto
Yamo’s only major weakness.
Damn, was that Jones that didn’t get the clear when he had possession?
No, it was Kailer.
Nice finish by Kas, but man this is a low emotion team compared to most. Their so called energy guy gets the biggest goal of the year and it’s ho hum
Could be that McDavid and Draisaitl don’t like the guys to celebrate. They deadpan most of their own goals.
I get them not wanting guys to lose their minds over a garbage goal, but maybe it’s contributing to a low emotion team beyond that?
It’s weird. You see highlights around the league of guys fist pumping and the bench jumping around. I get the Oiler studs are quiet guys, but the whole team? I think emotion can lead to energy and momentum. I miss Ryan Smyth
Agree on all this. And imagine Ryan Smyth on this team picking up the garbage? Never mind the emotion he’d bring. Seems like it would have been a perfect fit.
Anyway, I was just wondering whether the teams leadership is actually encouraging guys to stay reserved after scoring goals (directly or indirectly). It’s true you don’t want to over-celebrate your goals, especially on a losing team like the Oilers have been more often than not. Having fun when you’re losing is akin to accepting losing after all.
And the Oilers are struggling badly. That’s not a carefree goal.
It’s total speculation on my part. And I’m not actually sure it’s a bad thing even if it were true.
I can’t see that at all – McDavid celebrates many of his goals.
He doesn’t spend a lot of time smiling though, fair?
Kassian with his first of the year, ties the game in the third and the reaction is oh cool high five. All the deadpan by the leaders is contagious I guess. Watch the Capitals highlights to see a team rolling with positive emotion. We don’t ever have that vibe. That team is having fun and is united and going hard for each other vibe. If you watched those Oilers teams battle the Stars and Avs back in the late 90s, you know what I’m trying to say.
I absolutely know what you’re saying, it would be damn nice to see. Just an observation/guess that maybe the general seriousness of McDavid/Draisaitl (and Nuge for that matter) may be contagious. And maybe not in a good way, in terms of getting the rest of the team into the game.
Stupid refs wow Bear
Geezus – more penalties.
Aww, man, that one is weak.
Come on.
traffic in front!
Good play by Turris. Nice finish by Kass….
Prior to that a great play by Adam Larsson.
It was the goat play of the game…
kassian s back
Deployed in the proper spot in the lineup with proper minutes!
Agreed. Now if he would only play with some more controlled aggression.
Whoa, lets not get crazy now……..
Real solid Ozone shift cumulating with Kass scoring.
What a play by Turris, getting that shot off his skate. And the finish by Kass!
EAT IT RAY
The Marshmallow man
That was a nice goal!