I think at some level we knew the Calgary Flames would have a major say in where the Oilers landed in the final standings. Through the season’s first half, Edmonton owns a 3-1 edge in four games. Calgary won the first game February 6 (6-4), then the Oilers won 2-1, 7-1 midway through the month. A close 3-2 win March 6 featured a brilliant third period goal (the winner) from Connor McDavid. The two biggest differences between last game and tonight: Zack Kassian could be in the lineup, and Darryl Sutter will be behind the Calgary bench.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: How will Oilers GM Ken Holland make room in the lineup for Evan Bouchard?
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers and Elvis Merzlikins a trade match?
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dominik Kahun, Dylan Holloway and a perfect storm on the Oilers’ left side
- Lowetide: Why Oilers GM Ken Holland shouldn’t wait for the deadline to make a trade
- Lowetide: Three Oilers prospects form hottest line in the AHL
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition
- Lowetide: Why are some Oilers fans hesitant to give Darnell Nurse his due?
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers improve enough to beat TML it in May?
- Lowetide: Top trade targets for the Oilers at the 2021 deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021 trade value rankings
- Lowetide: February report cards for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ 2020 trade deadline splash: What we learned, a year later
- Lowetide: Revisiting our preseason predictions for the Oilers after 20 games
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
OILERS AFTER 31 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 14-15-2, 30 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in 2016-17: 15-11-5, 35 points; goal differential +6
- Oilers in 2017-18: 13-16-2, 28 points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in 2018-19: 17-12-2, 36 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in 2019-20: 18-10-3, 39 points; goal differential +6
- Oilers in 2020-21: 18-12-0, 36 points; goal differential +12
Amazing the Oilers have zero Bettman points more than halfway through the season. There are 17 in captivity in the Canadian Division, suspect that will have an impact on someone making the playoffs at the end of the year.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Calgary (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: Ottawa, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary, Calgary (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Montreal, Montreal, Montreal (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-6-1, 19 points in 16 games
- Current results: 4-3-0, 8 points in seven games
This is a tough week for the Oilers, very little rest and good teams everywhere. Calgary has won two in a row and is 5-3-2 in the last 10, while Winnipeg is 7-2-1 in its last 10 including a win against the division’s top team (TML). The Oilers are 6-4-0 in the last 10, and a strong week could see them pushing to the top of the division. On the other hand, several Oilers fans reported having bit right through their gums after Saturday night’s loss. It only hurts if it is the beginning of a losing streak.
OILERS 2020-21
This is five on five pts-60 for forwards, Corsi five on five for defensemen and five on five save percentage for goalies. The top line is going well, that second line with Ennis looks good but we don’t have enough sample.
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto: 87 minutes, 60.9 percent shots, 83 percent goals (10-2)
- Ennis-Nuge-Puljujarvi: 44 minutes, 48.7 percent shots, 1-0 goals
- Shore-Khaira-P Russell: 30 minutes, 50 percent shots, 2-0 goals
- Neal-Haas-Chiasson: 49 minutes, 57.8 percent shots, 2-0 goals
These are good numbers across the board, I think many will be surprised to see all four units outscoring in their time together. I don’t think we’ll see these four lines tonight, coach Dave Tippett often tweaks after a loss. Zack Kassian, Dominik Kahun and Josh Archibald might make tonight’s lineup if they’re ready.
- Nurse-Barrie: 341 minutes, 52.3 percent shots, 59.5 percent goals (25-17)
- Lagesson-Larsson: 124 minutes, 43.7 shots, 77.8 percent goals (7-2)
- Jones-Bear: 59 minutes, 59.6 shots, 0-2 goals
Numbers look good save for the black hole in possession on the second pairing. I would choose Jones-Larsson but am also thrilled that Tippett is running Jones-Bear because that duo should post strong numbers on the third pair. The shot differential is already excellent.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Was Saturday night a blip or the beginning of a slide? We’ll answer that question at 10 on TSN1260. I’ll also address toxic fan takes in the first segment today. Dom Cosentino from The Score will set up NFL free agency for us at 10:40, Jason Gregor from TSN1260’s Jason Gregor Show will talk Oilers and trade deadline at 11. Johnny Avello from DraftKings at the 11:25 to talk March Madness, he can’t fix your bracket but he can repair it. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
No one look now but:
Barrie is currently LEADING the NHL in Defenceman points.
Nurse is currently in the top 10 in NHL Defenceman points.
funnest game of the seezen for sure. it had everything I love about hockey in my 115 years of watching. There was picks, there was tackles and there even was a stretch of hockey where injured brains outnumbered shots! If I want to see offense I’ll turn on CNN and watch butthurt liberals try to take away Dr Zoos. if you let the players play then it’s no different than the other sports where the best teams win. Results have to be about more than just speed, talent, scoring and checking. You need gritensity and let’s face it, them Oilers are a p400 while the Flames are a P60. Boom!
How is it possible there are downvotes to this?
If you find yourself complaining about the reffing, you clearly have not seen an NHL playoff game.
Except he bowed out due to Hodgkin’s Lymphoma.
He called the NHL a “garage league” due to reffing, but didn’t retire because of that stated truth.
Telling people to just accept the way it is while also telling people to go tear down a statue? Think hard about what you are saying.
exactly what I expected….
You don’t want to see McDavid and Draisaitl play when they actually call the rules properly?
You think the game is fine the way it’s officiated now?
Go find your closest Junior C team…they’ll give you what you’re looking for…
We’ve all seen playoff games. This isn’t the playoffs.
And if this is the standard now, what are the playoffs going to be like?
Some little old lady is on the post-game call-in show asking Rob Brown why no one stepped up and went after the Flames for what Ritchie did to Khaira.
Edit: apparently she knows Rob because she was a trainer when he was a kid, lol.
Because the only Oiler who could do so is Nurse and that is a terrible trade-off for the Oilers
The funny thing was listening to a bloodthirsty octogenarian.
17 red was real good this evening. Oilers gave him lots of room.
Real good? Maybe for a $1.6M player… still not close to a $6M player.
Thanks Pete.
17 impacted the game, directly or indirectly involved in Flames goals and high danger opportunities.
What does how much Pete signed him for have to do with my comment?
Exactly, 17 had an impact last night and his salary is irrelevant to that discussion.
It’s comedy/drama/reality TV, not true sports. Imagine that there is a second rule book, The Equalization Rule Book, with special appendices No Media For You: Avoiding Accountability, Race to the Bottom: On The Treatment of Superstars, and You *Can* Matter: Game Management Theory, then everything is good. Watch Connor and enjoy the farce that is the NHL, all in one.
Bear’s skate had broken when he went to the bench on the McDavid giveaway.
That’s why he wasn’t there according to Tipp.
And that wasn’t the only skate to break tonight either.
Hmmm… so now we have a sabatage conspiracy??? ?
Someone REALLY doesn’t like the Oilers.
This team is 11-13 against non Senators teams, and while it still is impressive to go 7-0 against any team, that team is not playoff bound. 5-9 against current playoff teams.
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl. One need the big centre to control the rhythm of the game, with McDavid’s free jazz layered on top.
Not exactly uplifting
Still half a season to go.
This team is not cast from the DoD mould, they’re playoff bound barring catastrophe.
This still prorates to 1.2 more points than the Flames, who are the current 5th placed team. That’s still a playoff pace, even if you assume the Oilers continue to average less than a standings point per game against the Non-Ottawa portion of the div.
NHL should be ashamed. If anyone wasn’t convinced before, this game is definitely an “Exhibit A” on corrupted refs.
Corrupt hard to believe. Incompetent believable.
How about favouring more valuable markets? The amount of decisions that go against the oilers is overwhelming. The draft pick to Calgary…the reffing against Toronto and Calgary…the playoff decision last year that bumped us to the play in. The Anaheim series. It does make one wonder, no?
Except… Calgary has one of the weakest markets in Canada.
They’re closer to Florida than Edmonton in that regard, and Vancouver is right there with them.
Bigger city is all I mean. They seems to want to have bigger markets succeed.
Market isn’t based on population but viewership or size of audience.
And unless the flickers are in the conference finals the yuppies and yokels in YYC don’t flood 17th Ave in support of their team anywhere near the way people flock to Edmonton to support the Oilers.
I’m not going to bitch about the awful piss poor reffing. Can’t control it.
I liked Ethan Bear alot more in Vcr, 3rd pairing minutes against the dregs.
Too much was asked of him tonight.
The D core was looking tired before Barrie was injured
Soo
Run RNH at 3C,
If not whats the alternative?
I’m afraid Khaira is going to be out awhile with that concussion
I just pray it isn’t one of those:
“hasn’t been the same since…”
That would be so unfair as he was playing some of the best hockey of his career to that point.
In MMA, they would give a fighter a 6 month medical suspension if they were knocked out like that. I think they are erring on the side of caution these days in hockey. The goal being to prevent a secondary concussion immediately after the primary event. Even throwing a hard hit can aggravate a head injury. So it might be awhile for his sake.
He was lights out with his eyes wide open.
I hope he has a full and speedy recovery.
10 years ago Khaira would have been out playing the 3rd
Here’s the thing, if RNH goes to 3C who plays 1LW and 2LW? Is the downgrade from RNH less than the upgrade to the 3rd line with RNH at centre?
Roger that, the options are not great.
But the probability of Haas @ 3C sawing off the competition is scaring me alot more than Ennis @ 1LW
Ennis – CMD – Kassian
Kahun – Leon – KY
Archibald/Nygard – RNH – JP
Shore/Neal – Haas – Archibald/Chiasson
Maybe that’s a general template for a path forward.
Why are you moVing JP to the 3rd line
HUNTER1909’s Death March™
Update: from Hunter1909’s Death March(since 2014)
With Oilers now on pace for a 65 point finish, here are the current leaders in the Death March game which might pay out to all winners at the end of the season.
cheltimebaby; stephensheps; ArmchairGM; Victoria_oil; Ants of the sky; Marconiuse; JP
Will replace previous leaders:
JRizzer25; Hazwasted; KGB; Oilnc79; Unjustenrichment; Whale
Apparently you can run pick plays on faceoffs now. The amount of crap these guys got away with all game. What does the NHL think the game people want to see is. Should call it Interference.
Drives me bananas that the refs manage the game instead of call the rulebook.
Why write the book in the first place if you’re going to pick and choose, or (worse yet) interpret?
That’s just it, why does the NHL think this is the game people want to watch?
the other major league sports have it figured out, but not the Bettman NHL
Mcdavid missing his usual jump with 3 in 4 nights. Tough to lose two players in this intense a game.
Fuck the Ring of Fire. Fuck the Flames.
Oh does it ever burn…
Well.
Deep subject
Turn it on it’s side and you have a cave.
Fak.
Nuge was crushed with the cross check… All legal.
Hey Hrudey…Shut it!
I love 2021 Larsson
This is Adam Larsson.
3 X $3.5M
If you were Adam, would you sign that contract?
Honestly?
I’ve been advocating for him to get the KRusty extension minus the trade protection for a while, only way I can see him taking that AAV is with more years.
Would you do 5 x $3.5M? Do you think Larsson would?
I don’t. I think he’d bet on himself elsewhere if that was the offer.
I’m not Adam Larsson – I don’t know what he signs.
He very well may prefer 3 to 5 years in any event – more likely to get another “material contract” at 31 than 33 and won’t be accepting an AAV in “Covid-market”.
That’s a fair potential angle he could be considering.
Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out by next season.
I’d 4×4 that guy
When Poolparty gets knocked down I feel the earth move
He was Tubthumping tonight.
My goodness Bear is struggling with the puck.
It’s Barrie’s fault
Haas does this play often…rush towards the blue line, pass ahead of his wingers & fetch his own pass. Maybe he has trust issues
Need a 97 super skill goal!
Usually after a hook, hold and slash making refs look silly
Only in the NHL do the faster, more skilled teams end up with more penalties than the team playing rugby.
Its maddening that Lucic is having an effective game.
Sutter got these non-calls in LA too.
Not sure why the stripes are scared of a 5’11” old man…but sure seems that way.
They will get the…cattle prod
Sutter family has a lot of pull in the league.
That is made up.
Is it tho?
Yes
Really really?
I bet Edm complained about all the holds at some points during 2nd or between periods.
Fk, yamo ya cant touch the red shirt dont ya know that, santa gets angry..
All the shit they let go and then they call the cheesy ones. NHL officiating is minor league.
These refs are paid off, this isn’t legit.
Exactly what I said earlier…
Maybe Sutter got in their pockets
Can’t beat the refs too.
Every shift Kris Russell plays with Mcdavid is an affront to the hockey gods
Wow the refs are stupid…..
So pulling Connor down on top of you isn’t holding??? Alright then…?
Man, Bear, then Russell, with poor, poor offensive zone puck skills…… they can both do better.
They both look shell shocked.
This appears to be one of those “curse” games where the Oilers are guaranteed to lose no matter what. A lot of things going wrong in this game. Injuries, Terrible giveaways by both the goalie AND McDavid, and refs totally playing the “fuck the oilers” card.
maybe they’ll get them back tomorrow.
Wed.
Mike Smith and terrible giveaways is a feature, not a black swan. I’m sure Spector will find a way to blame the goal against on Koskinen.
If Koskinen was better, he would have started this game instead thus Smith wouldn’t have been on the ice to give the puck away.
Granted on Spec, but Smith has been solid this year. A pleasant and unexpected surprise given his age.
Give the man his due.
This hiccup is an aberration until proven otherwise.
Bear’s “pop” came after he dedicated to working hard off the ice to give himself the best chance to succeed – changed his off-season habits, including training and nutrition. He credits that with him taking the steps he did for last season.
Gregor has mentioned a number of times that he came in to work heavy and not in his best shape.
Please scratch him, Tippett. It seems like nhl coaches tend to make up their minds about players one time and then refuse to see whether the player has fallen back or stepped forward. Or is that just oilers coaches?
Is that true? I remember hearing the opposite, that Bear was in even better shape this year.
I haven’t heard either, TBH.
I have heard frequently about how good of shape Bouchard was in at camp.
Gregor has mentioned on more than one occasion that Bear came into camp heavier than last year.
Gregor has mentioned it a bunch of times.
Eek Ennis. Those defensive zone turnovers on the boards will not make Tippett very happy.
They piss me off for sure
How come Lucic is allowed to free arm Nurse.
Good job lars
i still hope we win…but when does Bouch get in? Bear is losing us games and putting us in bad positions too often. Period.
The Bear pinch, the Nurse slide, the Nuge screen.
Let’s dance…?
I think Bear realized he was F’d, but then mysteriously froze and was all of the sudden 2 zones behind. Weird reaction
Is bear a liability?
I think he has had a rough night. If Barrie is hurt he will stay in the line up. Not close to last year “Bear”
He had a good three games against the sens…but they weren’t much of a test. He hasn’t confidence other than that since coming back.
Nope.
Cue Godot in 3-2-1
Bad pinch by Bear. Bad screen by Nuge.
That was brutal. Mikey no likey.
Well that
crack highjoy was short-lived? ? ?
I had to go downstairs because the F bombs were becoming more than “just audible”.
Fak
Markstrom’s glove looked as bad as Mikko’s on that weak goal the other night.
Not a fan of that technique, unless it’s advantage Oilers. Haha