2020-21 Game 49: Flames at Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers have eight more games remaining on the schedule and at some point will begin resting veterans for a game or more. I doubt it will be tonight, as the Calgary Flames are the opponent. The Oilers are 5-4-0 against the southern Alberta team and there’s a small chance they could meet in the postseason. Vancouver awaits. Now is not the time to pull punches.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

• New Lowetide: Oilers complete April report card
• DNB and Murat Ates: Edmonton vs. Winnipeg: Five things the season series taught us about how they match up
• Lowetide: What Kris Russell does well and how the Oilers deploy him
• DNB: A 2nd Hart Trophy is firmly in Connor McDavid’s grasp
• Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers need to step up down the stretch?
• DNB: Get ready for Ryan McLeod
• Lowetide: A look at the best value contracts on the 2021 Oilers
• Lowetide: Dominik Kahun’s season of struggle with the Oilers has a silver lining
• Lowetide: An early look at ideal Oilers’ free-agent targets for the offseason
• DNB:McDavid’s latest goal shows why he’s in a class of his own
• Lowetide: Why Oilers fans shouldn’t worry about Philip Broberg’s SHL season
• Lowetide:Let’s make a final call on the Oilers’ 2016 draft class
• DNB: Re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Free-agency targets? Oilers mailbag
• DNB: Oilers sign Dylan Holloway to ELC
• Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers re-sign pending unrestricted free agent Tyson Barrie?
• Lowetide: Five Oilers prospects who deserve NHL tryouts now that the trade deadline has passed
• Lowetide: Are the 2020-21 Oilers better than the 2016-17 team?
• Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition

OILERS AT 49 GAMES

• Oilers in 2015-16: 19-25-5, 43 points; goal differential -26
• Oilers in 2016-17: 26-15-8, 60 points; goal differential +10
• Oilers in 2017-18: 22-24-3, 47 points; goal differential -26
• Oilers in 2018-19: 23-23-3, 49 points; goal differential -12
• Oilers in 2019-20: 26-18-5, 57 points; goal differential 0
• Oilers in 2020-21: 29-17-2, 60 points; goal differential +18

The 2017 team and this year’s model are close in record and the McDavid-Talbot crew were finding the range in outscoring and catching up in a quick hurry. Tippett got a fine record out of a team that was basically even in goal differential last season.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MAY

• At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Expected May record: 4-2-2, 10 points in 8 games
• Actual May record: 0-0-0, 0 points in 0 games

If my prediction comes true, Edmonton would finish 33-19-4, 70 points in 56 games. I picked them for second place before the season and that’s where they’ll land. My predictions for ‘reasonable expectations‘ are going to be close in some areas and not so much in others.

POSSIBLE LINEUP

This is five on five points-60 for forwards, Corsi five on five for defensemen and save percentage for the goalies. In the Thursday night Calgary game coach Tippett shuffled the lines, so we could see a different look tonight.

OILERS GAME 1 2017 PLAYOFF PAIRINGS AND GOALIE

• Nurse-Gryba: 9:34 together, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, Nurse TK, Gryba took a penalty.
• Klefbom-Larsson: 9:04 together, 3-3 shots, Klefbom scored, Larsson drew a penalty.
• Sekera-Russell: 8:24 together, 5-8 shots, Sekera 3 giveaways, Russell 1/1 gv/tk.
• Cam Talbot: Stopped 41 of 44 (.932) in the loss.

These are the numbers and lines/pairings for the first 2017 playoff game against the San Jose Sharks. Question: Do you like the current lineup more? Here’s an estimate of what the pairings could look like opening night playoffs 2021:

• Darnell Nurse-Tyson Barrie
• Dmitry Kulikov-Adam Larsson
• Caleb Jones-Ethan Bear
• Mike Smith

I’m uncertain about Jones’ role in the coming playoffs, he’s earned the No. 3 LH spot but Russell gets some starts. We’ll see.

U 18 Scoring

Below are my ranked players and their scoring totals in Texas:

1. No. 1 RW Dylan Guenther, Edmonton Oil Kings: 3 games, 2-3-5
2. No. 3 LC Mason McTavish Peterborough Petes: 3 games, 3-2-5
3. No. 4 RD Brandt Clarke Barrie Colts: 3 games, 2-3-5
4. No. 8 LD Simon Edvinsson, Vasteras IK: 3 games, 0-2-2
5. No. 13 LC Francesco Pinelli, Kitchener Rangers: 3 games, 4-3-7
6. No. 15 RC Logan Stankoven, Kamloops Blazers: 3 games, 2-3-5
7. No. 18 RW Nikita Chibrikov, St. Petersburg: 3 games, 2-5-7
8. No. 21 RW Fabian Lysell, Lulea: 3 games, 1-2-3
9. No. 24 LW Brennan Othmann, Flint Firebirds: 3 games, 1-1-2
10. No. 25 LW Fedor Svechkov, Ladia Togliatti: 3 games, 2-3-5
11. No. 28 LC Brett Harrison, Oshawa Generals: 3games, 1-0-1
12. No. 31 LW Conner Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds: 3 games, 0-2-2
13. No. 33 RW Chase Stillman, Sudbury Wolves: 3 games, 0-1-1
14. No. 34 RW Isak Rosen, Leksands: 3 games, 2-0-2
15. No. 35 LD Olen Zellweger, Everett Silvertips: 3 games, 0-5-5
16. No. 36 RW Simon Robertsson, Skelleftea: 3 games, 0-1-1
17. No. 40 RD Corson Ceulmans, Brooks Bandits: 2 games, 1-3-4
18. No. 42 LW Sasha Pastujov, USNDTP (U18): 3 games, 3-2-5
19. No. 44 LC Oliver Kapanen JYP: 1 game, 0-0-0
20. No. 45 LC Wyatt Johnson, Windsor Spitfires: 3 games, 1-1-2
21. No. 48 RW Samu Tuomaala, Karpat: 3 games, 4-3-7
22. No. 49 RW Prokhor Poltapov, Moscow: 3 games, 0-1-1
23. No. 50 LD Ethan Dal Mastro, Mississauga Steelheads: 3 games, 0-0-0