I looked around after the game, searching for any mention of Darnell Nurse. The Oilers had just lost a game to the St. Louis Blues, a game that featured a two-minute NHL debut by Dmitri Samorukov and major minutes by the other five blue. It was clear the team needed Nurse. I thought it might receive a mention.
Edmonton missed Jesse Puljujarvi too, the Connor McDavid line didn’t look right without him while also winning their minutes. I’m not concerned about the Oilers loss with those two men out of the lineup, plus a flat out rookie on defense. If the team plays like that in New Jersey, this is going to get serious. Seriously.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Why getting Mike Smith back now is important to the Oilers’ present and future plans
- Lowetide: The five most effective Oilers mid-season recalls since 1979-80
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects have a long history of world juniors excellence
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: LAK, MIN, BOS, CAR, TOR, CBJ (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 1-5-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, NJD (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-6-0, 10 points in 11 games
- Actual December results: 3-7-0, 6 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 18-12-0, 36 points in 30 games
I had the game as a loss, the Oilers defense wasn’t going to be good enough last night and even though I disagree with the pairings the point is probably moot. The Blues had more good players, the Oilers got behind early and fell into the role they’ve learned well over this long and difficult month: Second best.
Mike Smith made some big stops and I can’t blame him for any of the four that went flying past. He stopped 29 of 33, .879 and all four of the goals were judged to be HDSC by Natural Stat Trick. He owns a .910 save percentage and is a good bet to play against New Jersey.
Duncan Keith had an eventful night, he was 2-1 goals at five-on-five and made some nice outlet passes. He got beaten clean on the Tarasenko goal but could have expected better support to my eye. Three shots, two takeaways, two blocks, I’m sure he’ll get a lot of criticism but no one can expect Keith to play 26 perfect minutes at this age.
Tyson Barrie played 24:23, four shots, a block plus a giveaway and a takeaway. The Blues did a nice job of contesting outlet passes and that resulted in several misses and general lack of success. Barrie wasn’t the only one, and did make some nice outlets. Had one HDSC at five-on-five, driving down to the net for a pass of the rush. I thought he played well.
Cody Ceci played 22:50, had a takeaway and a block, his gap on the Tarasenko goal left far too much room to the left of Keith. I’ll say he was a little lucky on some of the plays, he defended well enough but the Blues high octane line was having the run of the place and fewer bad bounces could have resulted in more damage. I like Ceci, wouldn’t play him more minutes than Bouchard, though.
Slater Koekkoek played 21:25, got an assist (after he left the ice), three hits and a block. He had one of his better games to my eye, but is not well suited to the Oilers in terms of skill set. Koekkoek is a puck mover on a team with several who are better, and in need of calm feet and a gift for interrupting progress by opponents. I don’t have time to count but would guess 21:25 is among his most active games in the NHL.
Evan Bouchard played 20:17, partly because his partner got benched early in the first period. That’s a miscue by the coach, as Bouchard was Edmonton’s best defenseman on the night. He scored a goal, had a HDSC, three shots and made several great passes on the night. Edmonton has a good top pairing, it’s Nurse-Bouchard. When Nurse is out, Bouchard should be the top pair RH D. Just my opinion. Sent an errant pass that led to the 1-0 goal, certainly had a part in that play.
Dmitri Samorukov had a tough night. I’m happy he got to see the NHL, but don’t expect to see him again this season in Edmonton. I do like that he crosschecked Kyrou, would suggest slashing earlier in the play. Young defensemen will break your heart, but I strongly disagree with leaving him on the bench for the rest of the game. Dave Tippett does this more than any Oilers coach I can recall, which is different than saying he does it a lot.
It’s difficult to make sense of these pairings, not sure Keith-Bouchard will have better numbers in 3:45 again but that was interesting. Speaking of Bouchard, notice how many pairings did well when he was on them.
Connor McDavid had one assist, could have had several more and almost scored a couple of times late. Even down two goals with a few minutes left, 97 makes you feel anything is possible. Four shots, two HDSC (both at five-on-five) and a takeaway, he hit 50 points for the season in Game 30.
Leon Draisaitl also hit 30 points and scored a fantastic power goal. He had me thinking Peter Mahovlich on the play, just bulling his way through and leaving carnage everywhere. I thought he might have been able to interfere a little with Taresenko on the winner but that play developed late and with speed. I’ll let the experts tell me what happened there. His line was the most productive to my eye.
Zach Hyman looked a little rusty first game back, but was involved and did contribute. Battled hard, made good passes but the drive to the net wasn’t as noticeable. Part of it is probably a brand new line, Puljujarvi’s return should fix that problem.
Warren Foegele battled everywhere, had one HDSC but was in the way of 97 a little on some plays. The penalty reflected his game, good intentions and lots of hard work but no result at the end of the day. Kind of like that old George Gobel line (Did you ever get the feeling that the world was a tuxedo and you were a pair of brown shoes?) and I do like this player.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two HDSC and made several outstanding passes, I think he’s in a good groove right now. He had four shots on goal and two blocks, slowed the play down when necessary and rode opponents out of the play. A good night.
Kailer Yamamoto picked up an assist on the Draisaitl goal and two hits, but no shots on goal. Turned over the puck in the offensive zone on the Tarasenko goal; left himself and LD behind on the play, but the Oilers had a few more breakdowns before the puck went in. He has five goals and eight points in 30 games, extrapolated over a full 82 games (14-8-22) it won’t be enough for him to keep his job.
Brendan Perlini can sure disappear for a big man with wheels, but I’d give him the entire year just to make sure. One shot on goal. Kyle Turris was as quiet, without a shot on goal.
Derek Ryan played well, he surely did. One HDSC, a shot on goal, responsible everywhere, drove to the net, didn’t get scored on. He’s a man with a plan. I love two-way players. Devin Shore had a shot on goal, a reasonable look. Colton Sceviour was best of all on this list, shot, takeaway and a high-danger chance. I’m liking this line.
Ryan McLeod is a young player and is still learning on the job. Some errant passes, lost some faceoffs. I did notice a HDSC and real effort to recover from mistakes. There’s a player here.
The McDavid line held its own in possession and outscored the opponent five-on-five, that’s a win. The Draisaitl line got caught and then caught up, that’s a tie. I like the Ryan line quite a bit, but the McLeod line was matzah-balls. They need something.
Oilers need more clearance Clarence from 97, 29 and 97-29, the Ryan bleeding has stopped and the McLeod trio hasn’t found a groove but they’re searching for it. That line needs 1999 Georges Laraque.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
He scored again! A nice goal from reasonable range, quick release beat the goalie clean. Wonderful sign. He is 3-3-6 in his last two games for Bakersfield. There’s a job waiting for him, but he’ll need time to dominate the AHL. Spikes around Christmas, for some reason, are fairly common.
Why? Who knows. Let me tell you a story. Many years ago when I sold advertising for The Bear, I had a client who owned a computer college. Alone among the computer colleges, she would advertise heavily between December 15 and 31. I asked her why (you never want your client to spend money in unusual times of the year unless there’s good reason) and she told me that kids who don’t go to college out of school come home from their jobs at Christmas a little downbeat and parents would often suggest moving back home and going to computer college. She did it for years, must have been successful.
Maybe the light went on for young Mr. Lavoie. You know, naturally talented high performance players sometimes don’t get challenged in junior, and it takes pro hockey to knock that smirk off their face. I don’t know Lavoie, wildly unfair for me to claim this is his journey, but will say that time and again over the years the splits from mid-December to the end of the year often tower over the first three months.
OILERS AFTER 30 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 13-15-2, 28 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2016-17: 14-11-5, 33 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017-18: 12-16-2, 26 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2018-19: 16-12-2, 34 points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in 2019-20: 17-10-3, 37 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2020-21: 18-12-0, 36 points; goal differential +12
- Oilers in 2021-22: 18-12-0, 36 points; goal differential +9
Huh. Ain’t that a kick in the head. Oilers are basically running in place year over year over year under Tippett, the first three seasons are cousins after 30 games. Note: I’m stealing Woodguy’s numbers for this season, and my old numbers for these totals, so there could be a slight discrepancy in the totals. Still, it reflects a team that is no better or worse, at least based on record, than a year ago.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning begins with Chris Johnston, TSN Insider joining us at 10:20 to talk WJ’s and the new NHL Covid protocols. We’ll also have a guest join us from the WJ’s to give us an overview of the tournament, reaching out now and will confirm in the next hour or so. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: Can the Oilers fix their defence with the current personnel? Analyzing the deployment and pairings
https://theathletic.com/3038109/2021/12/30/lowetide-can-the-oilers-fix-their-defence-with-the-current-personnel-analyzing-the-deployment-and-pairings/
Doesn’t look Good does it …. gonna need a real quality D man added by the deadline….not sure Kenny has the Cap Space
Good article.
Tippett/Holland destroyed the D depth chart last summer. The sample size is growing and the jury is in. I’m hoping DNB starts going after them a bit on the management of the D. He dipped his toes in the water during a recent Q&A, let’s hope he jumps in soon 🙂
The Oilers had five left shot d-men and had to use their organizational 9th left shot d-man. Not 9th on their D depth chart, 9th on their left side D depth chart.
If anything having a player of Samourkov’s ilk as the 9th LD is fairly sensational depth.
Keith is a short term stop gap to, hopefully, Broberg, being a full time 2LD – he may be ready to split time in that role next season.
Nurse/Bouchard
Broberg/Ceci
That’s a solid top 4 going forward – one in his prime (Ceci), one just about to enter his prime (Nurse) and two with big room to grow (and one of them already one of the best offensive d-men in the league and and playing PK1).
Opie you are right they have had issues with things
The difference for me isn’t losing its continued disorganized play including from the team’s leaders
If it’s the players and winning is the goal the Kenny needs to make some hard, right decisions
Recent work on aging curves for D suggests their prime is generally 24-25 with a gradual decline from there.
And, as a growing number of elite, young, modern D make a huge impact on their ELCs, an increasing number of older D will be bumped into lesser roles accelerating the process.
Does this recent work have a link?
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/10/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-2/
Not specific to defensemen unless I missed a patch and there’s a lot of noise in there. It’s a subject (Defensive peak) that interests me, because my belief is that injury makes it very difficult to identify peak defenseman. We know 30 or thereabouts is a tipping point, there’s a cliff at 34.
I’m not sure we know peak value because there are so many broken lines in any graph of defensemen due to injury.
Based on what I’ve read, I think you’re seeing things accurately and of course results vary widely among individuals but it would seem that D peak earlier than was the case than conventional wisdom assumed previously and signing a D beyond the age of 30 is fraught with peril except in depth circumstances.
Again, I will posit that the game is changing, even since those studies were done and the new generation of young D are seizing the game in unprecedented fashion which will, over time, skew those curves even younger.
We’ll see.
Hedman, Carlsson, Riley, Josi, Eblad, Pieterangelo, Theodore, Golikoski, etc. don’t necessarily agree.
Interesting that Tulsky was involved in the early stages of that work and likely no accident that the Canes highest paid D is Slavin at $5.3 million with a contract that ends when he is 30.
Not a surprise they moved on from Dougie Hamilton who need a retirement contract.
Ha Ha!
I don’t agree with that at all as it relates to d-men – not even a little.
Ceci is clearly finding his game at 27-28 and is better than he was at 24-25.
Darnell Nurse has progressed every season.
As an aside, Evan Bouchard is already a top offensive d-man in the NHL and developing in to a legit all around top pairing D in front of us – he has another year on his ELC.
He’s already a better player than Quinn Hughes.
Once again, you’re letting your goggles cloud your vision.
Hughes .87 PPG +10
Bouchard .63 PPG +7
Note that Hughes has done this on a team with a goal differential of -8 while Bouchard’s team is +9
Also note, that extrapolated over an 82 games season. Hughes would finish with 71 points while Bouchard would finish with 52 points…that’s a huge gap.
At evens:
Hughes:
CF 54.85%
FF 55.35%
GF% 58.54%
Bouchard:
CF 54.45%
FF 55.06%
GF 48.49%
So, not only is Hughes 5th in scoring by all NHL D, and Bouchard is 20th, his underlying numbers are improving rapidly under Bruce Boudreau in an aggressive attack style.
In the month of December, the Canucks have played 9 games…Hughes has 11 points.
From the guy HAMMERING away at the Oilers 5v5 problems and their reliance on their special teams.
Oh my.
its a nice dead cat bounce
Bouchard is already better than Quinn Hughes.
Better at 5 on 5 offensively
Better at 5 on 5 defensively
PK1 on a good PK (vs. no PK for Hughes)
The only think Hughes does better is the PP and Bouchard is probably better than him at that too.
My goodness imagine if Bouch got 3:38 per game on the PP.
You’re way behind the curve buddy.
Hughes is killing penalties under Boudreau. (so is Pettersson).
Bouchard has 16 EVP…Hughes has 14…meh!
Vancouver was a dogs breakfast for 20 games and have been improving rapidly.
As I showed you, Hughes has a 5V5 goal share of 58.54% while Bouchard is at 48.49%
Hughes is clearly better than Bouchard in all game states no matter how you try to spin it and by season’s end the gap will be huge.
Take a look at his plus minus and lack of defensive ability. Check your rose coloured glasses. He is better this year in a more protected role!
Hughes will be in the US playing alongside his brothers soon.
You can disagree with the big brains all you like with your eye test but the math suggests otherwise.
Of course there are outliers and perhaps Ceci is one of them (I doubt it) but I wouldn’t want to be the GM that has to deal with the back half of Nurse’s big deal.
See OP?
The big brains can see that it’s a good thing Hughes would only sign in Vancouver for 5 years. They know he’ll basically be washed up by the time he becomes a UFA at age 27.
What do you think a 33 year Darnell Nurse would fetch on the trade market with his $9.25 contract when his NMC expires in 2027/28?
Those $6 million signing bonuses he’ll be due will make that contract extremely toxic.
Can you spell PJ Subban?
Of course Subban’s contract expires when he is 33 while Nurse’s runs until he is 34.
I can spell.
Nurse next year will make essentially what PK Subban has been making since 2014. Even with the flat cap the last 3 seasons there’s been a 20% increase since Subban signed his deal.
Beyond Nurse’s skating which should help him age well, his deal should only be worth $5M-$7M in todays cap by the time he’s 33. It works for me.
The cap is likely to be well clear of $100MM at the time, maybe clear of $100MM. Given Nurse’s elite skating and elite fitness, I don’t anticipate a steep decline in his early 30s. He’ll probably be close to value for that cap hit as a continuing top 4 D (potentially still a top pairing D, in fact, likely).
We’re not arguing with big brains just you!
In your scenario the Oilers have a 10+ 3rd pair in Keith and Barrie.
Nurse-Barrie
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Ceci
Seems like it might be worth a try (xGF% for the pairs is 55%, 57%, 52%).
Small samples for the last two, but by eye those pairing even seem like they could plausibly work (to me of course).
Trade Barrie for someone who can play lockdown on the right side and we’re good to go.
Yeah, I’m not against that.
Nurse-Barrie do have good results together though.
49GF-35GA last season.
3-1 vs Winnipeg.
6-7 this year.
57%GF overall.
I’ve got nothing against the player. Just looking for more help for Keith and Broberg. His skills seem a bit duplicated, he’s at the older end of the curve and the contract looks tradeable.
Maybe it doesn’t happen till the summer, but from where I sit, looks like it has to happen.
I agree that trade is very likely to happen at some point.
Any chance the coaching staff puts Lagesson in the lineup tomorrow over Koekkoek?
By eye, Lags played well his last few games and the fancies back that up – big time.
He has earned more looks, I think. He has been a pleasant surprise this year.
That was when Tip was out. Probably not aware Lags looked good!
Florida hammers Tampa Bay 9-3.
Huburdeau with 5 points.
Oh my.
Tampa should throw in the towel. Maybe fire the coach, too. How will they ever recover from this?
Some might say having a little bit of success and a proven track record might buy you a little leeway
Earned reprieve
If we’re point in a single blowout game, that’s, like, just over half a Gagner.
top pairing defenseman Ethan Bear played 15 min tonight. #6 on D
You also play 58 the first shift of the second period every damn time if you’re a competent coach.
That was completely idiotic. If you can’t calm a guy down in his first game and don’t care to try, you can’t do much.
Just to add to the mood…have people been watching Jesper Wallstedt this season?
That’s looking on track to be worthy of all the ire that was directed on draft day. At least they didn’t Benson up a DeBrincat…but my gawd…
These guys couldn’t hit water falling out of a damn boat.
Have people been watching Xavier Bourgault?
Tracking just as well in draft plus 1 and in a position of need.
Mostly goalie.
And QMJHL scorers are a dime a dozen comparatively.
”We only watched Cossa…”
”You can’t blame them for…”
UGH.
Holland, who essentially got famous for hitting home runs repeatedly with numerous European draft picks (in particular Swedish players) “only watched Cossa”?
The guy who picked Swedish D Broberg over all the USHL kids who were literally in his back yard? Honestly?
Did Holland actually draft those 3 (1 was a filthy commie)?
What 3 are you talking about?
He was scouting director, AGM or GM when Detroit drafted all of Lidstrom (3rd Round), Fedorov (4th), Konstantinov (11th), Kozlov (3rd), Eriksson (1st), Holmstrom (10th), Datsyuk (6th), Zetterberg (7th), Kronwall (1st), Kopecky (2nd), Hudler (2nd), Fleischmann (3rd), Fillpula (4th), Ericsson (9th), Franzen (3rd), Nyquist (4th), Tatar (2nd), Jarnkrok (3rd), Mrazek (5th), among others.
I think all except Konstantinov (injury) and Mrazek (goalie) played 500+ games.
But maybe he didn’t bother to scout Wallstedt.
Quite a list
The free spaces on the draft board are gone though
I don’t mind his drafting overall but passing in a first round quality goalie with a later puck lock when your biggest hole is goalie is something
Given nobody on the farm is really that hot a prospect
I was only arguing the ‘Holland only watched Cossa’ part. No one knows how these players will turn out long term. Oilers scouts reportedly thought Cossa was the better prospect, and also deemed Bourgault + a later pick worth passing on Wallstedt. Only time will tell what the correct choices were.
Max P. with wrist surgery and will be out indefinitely.
What are the chances the LTIR reserves allow Eichel on the roster and then Max P. is ready for the playoffs?
Sounds like a plan.
Now they don’t need to trade Reilly Smith.
It called smart G.M work your always going to have loop holes it’s wether are not your hungry enough to use them,
Lots of praise for Bouchard re: best d-man last night.
I don’t disagree (although his turnover was the initial mistake on the GA1 – was almost a 3 on 1 for the Oilers though….) but I do think that Tyson Barrie’s name should get a little love.
I haven’t looked at his specific numbers (other than the write-up above) but, to my eye, he played well and, frankly, his defensive game has been quite good for a good stretch now, 10 plus games.
Started slow last year, too, but improved down the stretch and was good in the playoffs (except game one). Started slow in Toronto and got better in the second half (coinciding with Babcock’s dismissal). Maybe his mind is still at the lake in October and November? Perhaps he uses the first two months of the season to troll Godot…
I cannot believe the Tipp apologists around here. LT said he had this as a loss, I think most did. Did Tipp have to completely humiliate a player we have been building for years. I just don’t get it, what does Tippet have to do to get some blame for the abysmal play of this team during the past two playoffs and this current grind. He has never won shit. Thank you for getting us here, now show yourself out.
4 mistakes on 3 shifts leading to two goal and two almost goals.
He played 2:30 less than Marody and Griffith in their game where Gully was praised for deployment.
Playfair/Tippett were trying to win the game last night – I would have thought the player would get another chance in the 2nd but the decision is definitely justifiable and I would bet if Sammy was embarrassed, it was with his own play.
I am sure he was but Tippet just sunk another young player. I’m sorry, and I know Sammy is a player you like, but Tipp is not the guy. He should have been gone after last spring. He was on a short leash. He’s done.
If last night sunk Samorukov, he was never going to make it in the NHL in any org under any coach.
Yup, lots and lots of overreacting.
Samorukov was terrible, he got sat so he didn’t dig his hole deeper, and he’ll get over it.
You haven’t been paying attention. He’ll never play for the Oilers again!
I will Lol at this because I believe you’re kidding?
Haha, I hope that was obvious!
He may but depends on how the team finishes. Tippett is on a rather short leash as well.
So I guess the NHL’s plan is for everyone to get Covid once and they are good. Bill Daly’s response to being asked if they will be able to get 82 games in:
Yes. Again, that’s going to depend on some things happening. But, look, a larger and larger percentage of our player population has been affected by COVID this season and that number continues to grow every day. Really, by sheer numbers, if you accept the fact that once you’re hit by COVID you’re not going to get hit again this year, then I don’t foresee an issue in finishing the season.
LeBrun: NHL’s Bill Daly weighs in on schedule shifts, protocol changes and what comes next. ‘It’s been quite the storm’
https://theathletic.com/3043502/2021/12/30/lebrun-nhls-bill-daly-weighs-in-on-schedule-shifts-protocol-changes-and-what-comes-next-its-been-quite-the-storm/?source=user_shared_article
Quebec implementing a 10 pm curfew and shutting down all indoor sports, church’s etc…..
Guess I saw the same thing live everyone else did on TV: Samorukov not ready, looked like he was skating in wet cement; Bouchard the best D-man, despite the penalties; Drai and Nuge the best forwards.
I’m not sure when I’ve seen an Oilers game where the absence of two particular players was so instrumental in the loss; Nurse and Bison King would’ve made a huge difference.
I thought the Blues were a little better skating and a lot better passing than the Oilers.
Enterprise Center is a bit generic but a nice venue. Fans were mostly cool. They do this weird thing with their arms just before a power play that looks truly silly. Everyone sang Country Roads halfway through the third period. My suspicion is that they only do this when they’re leading and the idea is to be “taken home” to the final buzzer.
Having some shoulder pain so Mrs. Llama save me a muscle relaxer pill before I went out to the bar with our friend. I believe it tripled the effect of each martini. Don’t have a real clear memory of the evening’s end.
Thanks Llama
The flow to the Blues game is coaching IMO Berube has them playing the system naturally and not over thinking, and they have some talent, and a good goaler
As for the night out sounds like fun hope it didn’t hurt too much
I can’t believe your wife slipped you a Mickie
If you woke up & she was in bed, smoking a cigarette,
Consider yourself lucky
I think Tippett slipped something into your drink and ruined your night.
The DRY line has been meh since 19/20. Time to shake things up.
19/20: 78% GF vs. 55% xGF
20/21: 44% GF vs. 41% xGF
21/22: 55% GF vs. 43% xGF
I would run JP or Hyman with Draisaitl for a stretch. Connor can’t have the team’s two best wingers all year long.
Drai needs a distraction on his line to mess the D system up
Nuggies and Yama are skilled but neither stop teams from keying on the one bigger guy that can actually score
How the team plays game in and out is the coaches job to make good
If the roster isn’t good enough overall is on the GM
The players have to do their part but the coaches are the leaders, strategists and overall have to have them playing well
I don’t believe the players aren’t giving their all. The disorganization is not on them
Holland and Tipp brought stability, but it seems they have done as much as they can
Holland POHO, get a modern GM, and get the coach for the next step. Bob can find a Lowe role somewhere in that giant org or wait at home for an international role somewhere
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Now some questions about VAN home dates on Jan. 5 and Jan. 8. Like other Canadian teams, the decision might be to postpone until capacity is larger
I posted after the game last night that the Oilers may win that game if Darnell Nurse is playing. Maybe not, for sure, but maybe.
While Bouch had culpability on that first goal, Nurse plays the first two goals differently than Sammy.
Keith was good early – not good as the game went on – probably partially due to the minutes he was playing that he wouldn’t have with Nurse.
Getting Nurse and Jesse back will be massive!
OP, lots of players out but you can’t expect to have your number 1 D in there for 82 games. You need people who can step up. The effort was fine but this team is just meh.
There were 5LD unavailable to play last night, including 1LD and 2LD.
They had to use the organizational 9LD and I don’t think its really arguable that was a massive factor in the game and loss.
Pair Nurse (or Klefbom or even Russell or Lagesson) with Bouch to start last night’s game and I think the first 7 minutes are very different.
Im laughing at the flak Tippett is getting at the handling of his 9th in depth chart left handed defenseman
Nurse
Klef
Keith
Kookoo
Russell
Lagesson
Broberg
Niemo
Sammy
9th!!!!!
But I’m sure Sammy getting his teeth kicked in for a few more goals would have helped his confidence. Retreat and live to fight another day. Maybe get a few practices in
I was hoping to see him in the second period but yeah, he got three shifts, and they were all awful. How many more bad shifts in a row before it’s ok to bench him? What if they score five through 10 of his shifts?
Based on what I saw more shifts wouldn’t have increased his confidence, more likely it would have deflated it. We’ll never know how shift 4 would have went, but this was not a benching after just one error.
What do you mean sir, he’s laid the handling of the player at his assistants feet, his conscious is clear and clean as far as he’s concerned about the matter.
Tippett (or Playfair, not sure who is responsible for what) get to own the defence because they made it this way. Their choices. Didn’t have to be this way and superior, cheaper players were on the roster last season.
Russell/Koekkoek have been fed at bats while guys like Jones could have been developed into solid options.
The same “coach every game as if it’s game 7” philosophy is killing them, a) because it’s unsustainable and b) they’re not very good at coaching in elimination games.
Yeah you have to win in the regular season but you need to bring guys along as well so that you have people in the playoffs. Tipp torpedoed this defence. It’s sad.
I’ve been following this team for awhile and what happened with Sammy yesterday is extremely unusual. I can’t remember a young D getting that treatment from Ron Low on down to McLellan.
If Tipp is so smart with his D, why does it suck and why are all the young guys gone?
Last season the team started the left side with:
Nurse
Jones
Koekkoek
Russell
Caleb Jones got the first opportunity. He didn’t seize it.
Yes, Russell eventually got more at bat but that would be because he was elite at preventing goals – 1.83 GA/60 on the season.
Russell had a better GA/60 and a better GF/60 than Jones last season – not to mention MUCH better on the PK. He deserved more at bats.
Playing PK3 (52 seconds/game under Boudreau) and getting killed (almost 10GA/60) – there is no argument on that game state.
P/60 (5 on 5):
Bouchard – 1.51
Hughes – 1.02
Hughes is apx 1 P/60 ahead of Bouch on the PP, of course, Bouch’s most common linemates: Foegele, McLeod, Kassian, Turris, McLeod
I’ve been pretty hard on Tippett for burying young players, but Samurukov was unplayable last night.
And that is a big difference between the two teams.
The Blues had Perunovich, Mikkola, and Walman playing D, all young, all playable or better.
Broberg, Samurukov, Lagesson, Niemelainen aren’t giving the Oilers the same kind of play.
Until/unless they arrive this team is cooked. Right now this team has only 4 NHL defensemen.
Hold your horses, Lagesson has looked like a competent NHL defensemen in at least his last 2 outings and the numbers back this up.
Was he unplayable? Less then 3mins of opportunity when you’ve finally made it to where you’ve been dreaming you’re entire life. Let the player settle down then find some clear air to get him back out there for a shift or two.
Nurse, Barrie, Ceci, Keith, Bouchard, are all everyday defensemen and when the Oilers can run those 5 at once and only need to run 1 of the fringe group regardless of their developmental stage, they all look much better then the Mish mash Bing bong stew that’s happening at the moment.
Broberg, Neims, Lags, Russell, Kook have all had their ups in the 6th spot.
Sammy probably would of had a up last night if those other 5 were playing infront of him.
And well if Tipps was still in quarantine.
Yes, he was unplayable, unfortunately.
Some coaches build their players up such that they become dependable. Not Tippett/Playfair.
The only young D who is currently succeeding on this team is Bouchard and they wouldn’t play him last year.
We’re not talking about a sample size of one with Samorukov. It’s a pattern.
Nurse’s game hasn’t grown leaps and bounds under the current coaching regime?
Didn’t the current coaching staff give Ethan Bear a chance at 1RD in 2019/20 and play him there the entire season and then start him there in the 2021 season until he struggled (and gave him another chance there later)?
Didn’t the current coaching staff start Caleb Jones as 2LD last season? The rope was short but that seemed due to the player making the same mistake multiple times.
Didn’t Broberg lead the team in ice time in one game this season?
Didn’t this coaching staff sit Bear after a mistake and look how that ended. Last game the kid ever played for us and even LT said that was a bad trade.
Does that imply that Ethan Bear only made one mistake and had a very inconsistent and up and down season, never really gaining traction? I think the decision to sit Bear in game 4 was due to more than one play.
To be clear, I don’t agree with that decision but the implication that Tippett made it based on one play and doesn’t allow young player to play after mistakes, and through slumps, is not based in reality.
That’s not to say that veterans do not have more rope – they do for Tip (and most coaches).
Samorukov was not sat for a mistake or two mistake or even three – it was four mistakes, each leading to grade A scoring chances against, including two goals.
Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) Tweeted:
Another 5 positive test results from yesterdays testing at the World Junior Hockey Championship. Had the decision not been made to cancel the tournament, there would have been more forfeited games today and moving forward.
https://mobile.twitter.com/darrendreger
Jordan Kyrou & his trusty sidekick Vlad Tarasenko lit up Dmitri Samorukov for goals on both his 2nd & 3rd shifts in the NHL. Later he/they lit up Duncan Keith for a goal on his 34,822nd shift in the NHL.
Give Jordan & Vlad credit, they are equal opportunity lighter uppers.
Keith was not to blame on a goal where he had to cover two forwards in motion. Either Nuge made a bad read, expecting Drai to be able to get back or Drai didn’t get to where Nuge thought he would/should.
Pretty embarrassing what the Fs did to the D there, and judging by the look on Drai’s face, he knew it too,
Very accurate assessment. Over and above that, Yamamoto made a careless giveaway pass in the offensive zone to start a 3 on 2 jailbreak the other way. Just bad all around.
What’s new I’ve seen the same mistake more than on one occasion where he has trouble getting it over Centre and dumping it in for a line change. Tippett’s stubbornness to demote Yamo in the batting order as well as his lack of line matching at home probably will be his undoing.
I had to make a new post for this. This, unfortunately, is must see TV.
This reminded me of those famous twitter highlights we saw during the summer for Keith.
There are no words for this.
Keith is caught in a 2 on 1 / give and go situation and he had no help, perhaps he expected some. After goals I always rewind and watch the play a few times to makes sure I didn’t miss anything. Keith of course could have handled it better, but where was his support vs St Louis’s most dangerous line?
Draisaitl coasted all the way back from the Ozone, he was in no man’s land the entire play. He needed to get on his horse at 1) or sooner in that sequence to cover the middle.
This is part of the problem, as mentioned, holding everyone to the same standard. Mr Selke candidate needs to do his part in his own zone. The reason the Oilers struggle to score at 5 v 5 is because the opposition is doing exactly this.
The bottom 6 can’t score, but are limiting GA, but if the top 6 doesn’t defend how can this team win games? It not all the D’s fault.
That play essentially mirrors the season. I do believe that much of the poor defensive player, or defensive breakdowns, comes from lack of forward support.
This is a terrible read of the play.
Keith is caught in a 2-on-1 situation of his own devising by his terrible gap. It’s textbook. Gap control is the most important thing a defenseman can do. All other problems are downstream of that.
He then played that 2-on-1, which was entirely his fault, terribly.
Sure Ceci or Draisatl could have saved him, and they didn’t, but the two biggest mistakes on that play were Keith’s.
Ryan is right, this is must see TV. It is right there on video for everyone to see.
I agree Keith’s fault, but some have said Draisaitl should have recognized danger. I believe, in watching it, the play developed late and with late speed. I don’t KNOW Leon could have gotten there. That’s my read. When could he reasonably have been expected to recognize danger? Could he get there? I don’t believe he could have impacted the play. jmo
If it’s obvious to the players on the ice that Drai is too far away to get back then Nuge can’t attempt to force the issue at the blue line and needs to drop back to the slot to cover the out-numbered situation.
I don’t know if he made a bad read, or Drai truly dogged it, but combined with the giveaway by Yams that created the Blues’ quick transition, the fingerprints of the forwards are all over that crime scene.
No defenseman on the planet covers two guys with speed.
Tough for d-men to gap up without proper forward support which, for me, is becoming more evident as the team’s primary structure issue defending the rush.
Agreed, and it has been a problem for some time, years.
A few weeks ago (maybe 2) Lowetide suggested Derek Ryan may have been hampered by injury.
Hopefully last night was a sign that the additional time off has helped him regain some of his old form.
Also,
Computer College?
Huh
I was thinking it would take a 10 game losing streak for Tipps to be canned, didn’t think it would come so soon.
6 games of playing uninspired hockey, coaches takes a covid break, team wins, coach kicks covid out, team goes right back to looking like they’re about to have no pulse.
Tipps blaming his assistants for players ice time… Holland should relieve Dave and turn it over to the assistants for the remainder of the season.
Can Sammy be used in trade bait now or did Tipps successfully shoot that in the face last evening lol.
Pretty sure Samorukov’s poor play is what the pro scouts will remember.
More playing time would likely have just exacerbated the problem.
But sure, it’s all on Tippett.
Okay then
I’m thinking the Oilers pro scouting may be one of the NHL’s only scouting groups that need less then 3mins of ice time to determine whether or not they like the player.
Yes, I’m sure he would of kept going out there and the Oilers would of been down by 6 by the end of the 1st.
And yes, it’s pretty much all on Tippet at this point.
This team doesn’t start any single period well under his guidance.
This team has absolutely no 5×5 offensive identity other then relying on pure talent.
This team cannot break a puck cycle for the life of them and usually ends up in the back of the net.
He has Yamamoto as a top 6 winger all season long when he’s producing literally next to nothing other then the odd drawn penalty call.
This is all head coaching, every coach knows exactly how to play Dave Tippett teams because he has become a dinosaur with his systems. They’re out of date and don’t work anymore, the special teams are great but if the team didn’t have 2 generational talents they’d simply have a fantastic penalty kill and nothing else.
I wanted Tippett fired after Chicago, he got out coached by a rookie.
I wanted Tippett fired after Winnipeg, Maurice knew exactly how to play his systems. But I knew they’d give him the 3rd year.
Holland isn’t a guy to fire a coach mid-season, not in his DNA. But I believe he may have no choice. He loses 6 straight got into protocols, Team wins, he comes back and the team looks as lost and uninspired as ever.
I don’t see a path on how he corrects this, nothing suggests his can figure out today’s 5×5.
Or be creative enough to make a system for what he has
If wingers are the problem to be a strong team with ‘2’ centres of that ability, given so many examples of other teams that figured it out
There is enough on the roster to be a hard out at the very least
Under this coaching group that has not been the case outside of a few games in a row, although I have never felt they were that solid.
The only time they look good is when the other team lets them play to their strengths, but that isn’t what good team do at least regularly
So if assistants are running the players and Tipp doesn’t line match, is he there to watch the game in the frontest front row seat?
And yet
Far from what any criticism of last nights game should be focused on.
It’s bizarre. People have their favorite whipping posts, I guess, and are just hunting around for reasons to bring out the tar and feathers.
Wheeler with his WJHC notebook, featuring his observations of dozens of players from the truncated tournament, including The Bourg and The Berger:
https://theathletic.com/3036346/2021/12/30/wheeler-my-incomplete-2022-world-junior-championship-notebook/
A note on The Bourg:
The QMJHL has extended their current break by one week to Jan. 14. As a result, he will have more time to recuperate from his injury.
Another note:
To continue the Star Trek: The Next Generation theme–how fitting is it that a player dubbed The Bourg plays in a league nicknamed the “Q”?
I’m gonna need more data, Tarkus, before committing to this Star Trek theme thingy…
I’m gonna need to consult with Mr Data,Tarkus, before committing to this Star Trek theme thingy… – fixed it for you 😁
Samorukov is on an expiring contract.
A pretty good bet that he returns to the KHL next season.
It’s a bit early for that, and you have no idea what his career goals are, or if you do please share.
New wife, I say money or location for $250 Alex.
Either that a Tippett replacing are a trade. I’ve never see that before so early in a game.
Have you seen 4 awful mistakes leading to two goals against and two additional high danger chances in under 3 minutes of play?
With respect I think the job of Oilers apologist was fazed out like 5 years ago
Lol
Yes just like Nuge was a lock to sign in Seattle
Samorukov came over at 16 years old to play in the CHL – I would presume that was in the name of his goal to play in the NHL.
I’m fairly confident that Samorukov knows he had a terrible 3 shifts last night and was cratering the team’s chances to win. I’m sure he understands why he didn’t get back on the ice and knows that either (a) he isn’t ready for the NHL or (b) he may be ready but played poorly.
I can’t imagine the player has ill will towards the org because of this and, unless he now thinks that he will never have what it takes for the NHL, I presume he will work his ass off knowing what needs to be done.
I remember when the likes of Lagesson and Berglund would never re-sign/sign with the Oilers……
As of this moment, the Oil is barely hanging on to a wild card position. Yes there has been some injuries and some Covid issues. But, not good enough. 25M was spent and the team is not any better than it was at any other time in the last 5 seasons. Simply not good enough. I don’t have the answers, but these first period breakdowns combined with mediocre goaltending, combined with poor coaching decisions, combined with atrocious defence, combined with not enough back check, combined with zero grit. Nurse and Jesse coming back will not make the difference. 4 or 5 players do not make a team…the team right now is not entertaining to watch. There are individuals worth watching, but the team is not. At least for me. I shut games off after falling to 2-0. 7 of the 8 last games. There is a problem. Something needs a shakeup.
You don’t think Nurse and JP make a difference? Substitute Nurse for Samorukov last night and they probably win that game. You’re only as good as your weakest players.
No. I don’t think they make the difference in the game that was played last night. In my opinion, the game was all St Lou. Two players, even of the caliber of Nurse and JP, wouldn’t have changed the outcome at all. The Blues dominated all parts of the game including special teams. Not enough jam. Not enough grit, and not enough heart. I shut game off quite early, and will continue to do so with starts like that. So long as the Oilers play perimeter hockey and cough the puck up over and over they are going to continue to flail in the desert.
Game was tied halfway through, on the strength of two goals by the opposition where Nurse’s replacement had culpability, but yeah, whatever.
How can you make such strong statements when you don’t watch most of the game?
The outcome of a game is often due to 2 or 3 plays. 2 misplays by Samorukov turned into goals, which turned into only 5 D available for the last ~50 minutes of the game. That is tough on those 5 guys, not only because of how much exertion, but also in having two RHD on for long stretches and having unfamiliar partners for playing long stretches with each other.
As well, Foegele would have ended up on the 3rd line and perhaps he pops in Shore’s missed rebound and Hyman pops in the Foegele missed empty net chance (RHS, much different shooting angle). Shore as 4LW would have been better than Perlini as 4LW.
Perhaps the outcome would have been the same or it just as likely would have been much different. However, saying a #1 D and #1 RW would not make a difference in the result is disingenuous.
At least I stuck it out until 10 minutes left and the fast-forwarded it. Unfortunately these games have become predictably frustrating with the lack of scoring throughout the line-up.
Tippett is the head coach and — even if Playfair made the decision to bench Samorukov — he wears it. Can we agree on this?
Culture-wise, I posit to you, it’s not a surprise. Bear, Jones, Bouchard last season, and now Samorukov. Broberg got ice but was quickly passed by Koekkoek and Russell. Kulikov was scratched last season in the playoffs after posting a 58% goal share in 10 games. He has a 56% goal share with Minnesota this season. He was good in NJ last season. What exactly is the expectation here?
Caleb Jones was criticized enough that you knew he was on his way out, same with Bear. Those guys had goal shares of 38 and 46. Ceci is at 38, Keith is at 44. We can argue about roles and d-zone starts etc, but Bear-Jones were also both *much* better two seasons ago and conceivably have upside. Also, this season: Jones is at 67 (SSS) and Bear is at 64.
Even if you think Jones and Bear would regress to what Ceci-Keith are doing this season, they are so, so, so much cheaper. You could address 3C with the cap savings, or goal. Surely we can agree that the Keith – Ceci – Barrie triumvirate is supremely cap inefficient. I should add — I do think Ceci can be better. But I also thought Jones and Bear would be better.
If you believe that adding Hyman and Foegele made the forwards better — I do — then in order for the Oilers to run in place the bottom six got worse and/or the D got worse. I’m telling you, the D is worse.
Holland panicked when Larsson left and crippled the franchise. But Tippett has been pouring gasoline on about 5-6 years of good scouting. No one man should be allowed to do that. I now believe he should be fired. He doesn’t get to ride off in the sunset.
This coaching staff has no clue when it comes to D. None. It’s not an opinion. They are making up stuff as they go, and everything they make up is wrong. A monkey would get things right more often.
To return to LT’s five categories of fans, yes, I have seen enough. It’s not anger, but I simply won’t spend money on the team until management and coaching are replaced, and I will not shift my views to placate others until real improvements are made to *process*. Most teams don’t win; I just don’t want to see the same incompetence over and over.
I think it is unfair to lump Ceci with Keith. Ceci has had his GF% torpedoed playing with rookies. I think he went 0-4 with Broberg, IIRC.
Otherwise, completely agree.
This isn’t entirely true.
Keith is 16GF-20GA in the 21 games he’s played.
Ceci is 14GF-21GA in those 21 games and 2GF-5GA in games Keith didn’t play.
Ceci’s results are worse than Keith’s even looking at games they’ve both played.
Sure. Here are Ceci’s numbers with other partners.
2-4 w/ Broberg.
0-2 w/ Lagesson.
2-1 w/ Nurse.
0-1 w/ Barrie.
0-2 w/ Bouchard.
This strongly implies that Ceci bears less blame than Keith.
Keith-Ceci have been 12-17 together. That’s not good.
Ceci is 2-6 with Broberg/Lagesson. That could fit the ‘torpedoed’ description.
Beyond that Ceci and Keith have each had goals scored only with Bouchard and Barrie as partners. Ceci is also 0-3 with Bouchard/Barrie, while Keith is 4-3 with them.
How that leads to Ceci apologization, I’m not sure.
Yawn. One game. No Nurse. No Klefbom. Rookie Blue. Good team. A GM who doesn’t fire coaches.
High expectations going into the season. 3-7 in the last 10. Barely holding a playoff spot. This is not just one game.
If your tired get some sleep.
Well written.
I realize they aren’t going to win the cup every season.
I just don’t like watching poor play, poor execution.
And it is poor and has been poor for a looooong time. There has been very little progress, especially given the talent on the team.
“Tippett is the head coach and — even if Playfair made the decision to bench Samorukov — he wears it. Can we agree on this?”
Not sure I can agree.
Tippett “wears it” in the sense that he hired Playfair.
Tipp’s made it clear that “Jimmy” runs the defence. He’s trusted him through two different teams. A dive into Arizona’s deployment may be ….. interesting?
You can’t undermine him mid game. The players and the other coaches are watching. That kills respect for the head man
Having said that, I can’t imagine Tippett disagreed with Playfair’s decision.
A head coach can delegate authority to make a decision, but he CANNOT delegate accountibility for the decision.
So a fourth coach and a second manager is the answer? I am not sure sure which LT category this is …but that is not the answer it is not even the right question.
until the play-offs relax and enjoy the entertainment.
Look at the standings. At this rate, the Oilers will not make the playoffs.
Look at the standings and they will make the playoffs.
If you look at the last 10 games and project forward than the Oilers will not make the playoffs.
In the past 20 games, the Oilers are 9-11.
I think it is reasonable to be concerned about the Oilers’ playoff chances.
I’m willing to wager that they will make the playoffs. Whatever denomination that you like. Proceeds to LT or a charity of your choice.
I was not predicting that the Oilers would miss the playoffs.
9-11 in the last 20, 3-7 in the last 10, 5v5 numbers in the shitter. I think this is cause for concern.
I do not think that is controversial?
I don’t think the recent record is a true representation of the team’s ability. They actually looked quite good for the 3-4 games before the Christmas break. I’m confident that they are a playoff team.
Who do you bring in to coach today though?
Agreed, they’ve looked like a quality bottom 6 (ideally 4th line) trio.
There are areas of Tippett’s coaching game that could improve and he’s not above criticism, but blaming him for Samorukov’s game and how he was handled last night is laughable.
No it isn’t laughable. You are fine with his decisions, others feel they were wrong headed and even callous.
Its not like the team was stellar except him. Most of the D were substandard.
By saying laughable you are saying people that don’t agree with you are laughably stupid. Nice work.
There is no argument here. The team is trying to win, not break in rookies who can’t handle it. There is no blame for the coaching staff for a not playing a rookie after he shit the bed three shifts in row.
The (not-so) funny thing is… if the coaches had allowed Samorukov to continue and had had got lit again, there would’ve beena plethora of posts about how incompetent the staff is to allow him to continue, not to mention putting the two points at risk.
He would have been skewered by fans and media alike; no doubt about that.
I agree with this sentiment, but similar has been said about Benson, Marody and others.
Is it possible to give all the potentially deserving players 500 at bats? I’m not sure it is, unfortunately.
Perlini has had them
Is that a vote for Benson/Marody over Perlini? Or just a stand alone?
I meant Perlini has had a lot of NHL track, he is not suffering from a lack of opportunity
My take is that I would always play a skilled rookie over a failing vet because there is more upside, if the vet is also making a million mistakes and doing nothing, which is the case with Turris, and many others the coaches couldn’t bear to not play over the years
I was the only one posting here about giving Perlini 1st line or top 6 minutes, but after starting to hit and showing some flashes of grit, I haven’t seen it after he “lit up” the AHL for a couple of games.
He needs to be moved while he might have some perceived value. He reminds me of Spooner and POS, all skill no will.
I’ve seen enough, time to move him along.
With respect, I don’t think he has any perceived value, in terms of trade.
Maybe he could be the new Omark in trade negotiations.
Do you figure Perlini and 2nd would bring back Giroux at the deadline?
Perlini has had his at-bats on multiple teams. It is time to find out who Tyler Benson is.with an extended run of games.
Benson McLeod Yamamoto
Shore Ryan Sceviour
Foegele with McDavid.
Hyman with Draisaitl.
I don’t disagree particularly. But Perlini is only 2 years older than Benson, and Benson has had a JFJ-like start to his NHL career. It’s likely that neither would prove to be difference makers if they did get 500 ABs.
IMO Kassian (who you predictably omitted) has a better chance of contributing to the Oilers than either of them.
While the short term story is Samurukov, the long term story is Keith.
He had an atrocious gap on the third goal, which put him in a bad position from which he could not recover. The problem is he always has a bad gap because he no longer skates at an NHL level for a defensemen.
The solution to Samurukov is getting Nurse back. There is no solution for Keith, even with the skating he’s better than the alternatives.
A team would have a hard time winning with Keith as their 3rd LHD, it is impossible with him as the 2nd.
Holland sewered the season with that one move, and if Keith doesn’t retire he’ll have sewered next season too.
Holland’s solution at D last offseason was a disaster and was obviously a disaster at the time it was executed. It had the same expectation of succeeding as did Turris as 3C.
Keith makes Barrie seem like a fine defensive defenceman in comparison.
https://twitter.com/jmarshfof/status/1476404295566254084
If Holland would have dumped a contract or received Keith for half price I could understand the trade. I look at the timeline of the deal and how it unfolded for acquiring Seth Jones having his brother waiting at the airport with his Black Hawk jersey on. Holland gets 5 large a season if he is indeed in the upper echelon of G.M’s he sure didn’t show it on that trade.
I disagree, I think Keith would be a fine 3LD.
Keith could play 3LD but his contract cannot play 3LD.
I agree with you. My argument from the summer, which I stand by now, is:
No good team would play Keith on the second pair and no smart team would pay him to play on the third pair.
I hear Keith is doubling his immune-boosting regime and he is going to start filling his skates with essential oils so his skating should improve soon!
D-men need proper forward support in order to gap up.
Drai was in position to provide that support and he could have turned the 3 on 2 in to a 2 on 2 (and taken Tarasenko) with a bit of effort.
Keith likely assumed he had that support and started to move to the puck carrier on the side boards.
Drai didn’t provide the support.
Keith had to retreat and was in no mans’ land.
I don’t relieve Keith of culpability, however, as is often the case, there are other factors, including poor forward play, that led to the defensive issue.
That play was all about gap control, or the lack of it. Hockey is a game about controlling space, if your D can’t control the gap then you are going to have problems. Laying blame after you’ve lost control of the gap is missing the forest for the trees.
Yes, gap control is important.
Of course, as NHL coaches, including Jim Playfair, like to tell us – its tough to gap up properly without proper forward support.
Obviously, injuries and covid have not been kind to the Oilers.
That being said, there were cracks before the injuries and covid.
The goaltending is looking sketchier with every passing game. I am not blaming Smith for the loss but, the Oilers team sv% has been on a downward trajectory for weeks.
The Oilers need an in-game tactician to make chicken soup out of the chicken shit bottom of the roster. Tip has proven time and time again that he is not a tactician.
The handling of Bear in the playoffs was a fucking joke. The handling of Sammy last night was more of the same. I know Tip tried to sewer Gully but, the HC has ultimate authority.
Also, I love Yamo but he is struggling on the second line yet Tip keeps throwing him out there. The contrast between Tip’s handling of the young D vs. Yamo is bizarre to me.
Goalies are at the mercy of team play. The oilers team play has been going to shit.
They all talk a lot but you know talk is cheap. Connor and Leo still aren’t consistent defensively, some games good some not.
Time to see it happening after this many seasons one coach.
When you put it this way it really does sound like a Tippett (forwards) vs Playfair (defense) difference.
You’re right that it’s ultimately on Tippett, but good managers do trust the people they’ve put in place to do specific jobs.
Unless woody is the answer that leaves Babcock for coaches that should be better than Tipp.
It is probably a good idea to wait until a coach that is clearly better than Tipp.
Now that I’ve written that, no way in H E double hockey sticks Holland would hire the right guy. It’ll be some retread from his past bcs they are too whatever to do exhaustive searches for players or personnel
Unless we get really lucky and Coach Q rehabs and Holland sees hockey Canada on his resume
Instead of freaking out at me, please accept it is very likely that under penance Q is back in the league at some point
There have been others back with some unsavoury things in their past
Not a chance the league lets coach Q back this season.
Right that’s my point there’s no one to hire that’s not a gamble
I can’t see Tippett being back next year. Woodcraft is the right solution. Babcock would be a disaster, much like bringing Quinn or Hitchcock back.
If he goes deep in the playoffs he’ll be back for sure.
Babcock healthy scratched Mike Modano in his hometown in game 1499 games played which he retired with. Babcock is a Dick.
Is Paul Maurice available?
Bingo.
I’m not so convinced about Maurice, who also has a weak playoff record
He’s an interesting person but I’m not seeing what the oilers need
For me he’s Tippet plus a bit
He also barely beat the Oilers with a way better forward group and goalie
Holland doesn’t fire coaches. Wait till contract expires maybe.
If you cared to look at what Holland has actually done in the past rather than spread your narrative, you’d see that Tippett is the only experienced/retread coach he’s ever hired.
The complete list of coaches Holland has presided over is:
1) Scotty Bowman, whom he inherited
2) Dave Lewis, who had zero head coaching experience (was a Red Wings assistant)
3) Mike Babcock, who had 2 years of NHL head coaching experience (Anaheim)
4) Jeff Bashill, who had zero NHL head coaching experience (AHL head coach)
5) Dave Tippett, who was the first experienced retread Holland ever hired
I suppose
I also said he wouldn’t put the effort in to find a better coach for this team
In Edmonton he has been drawing on his Wings years
In Detroit he promoted his farm coach twice. In Babcock he hired a hot shot young coach for a veteran team
In Tippet he hired an experienced coach who had played for team Canada and had a decent if meh record, not exactly groundbreaking
Im not sure my narrative is that far off the mark
If you consider his track record, the next head coach will be Jay Woodcroft. I think that would give the team a boost.
Congrats to Connor & Leon for hitting another milestone: only the 4th set of teammates to hit 50 points in 30 games multiple times. Gretzky/Nicholls, Gretzky/Kurri and Orr/Esposito are the others (credit Kurt Leavins at CoH).
Oh, and with 2 assists in his 30th game last night, Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov joined them: he now has 20 goals and 51 points in his first 30 OHL games.
EDM Goal Diff 30 gp(18-12-0)
EV (5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29(15-13) 54%
29 w/o 97(16-15) 52%
97&29 On(13-10) 57%
93 w/o either(4-6) 40%
71(4-6) 40%
10(6-16) 27%
Other(2-6) 25%
Net EV -12
Special Teams:33-17
Net ST +16
Empty Net:8-5
Net EN +3
SO/PS 2-0
Net SO/PS +2
Goal Diff +9
The second line’s numbers are going in the wrong direction. They have been struggling at 5v5 recently.
What this team needs is for Kenny Holland to stand up at breakfast and tell a riveting story about what Steve Yzerma did amidst a losing streak in Deee-troit.
I’m shocked, shocked I tell you, that this team is running in place after 3 seasons of Tippett.
Absolutely dripping with sarcasm … well done.
Turris = Marody = Griffith
Sending Turris to Bakersfield or the taxi squad and replacing him with Marody or Griffith saves $375,000 on the cap (Marody) or $400,000 (Griffith).
Tippett on a tipping point. If the next two games are loses January will become a warm one for him in Edmonton. Doc and the Buffalo King to the rescue.
Samorukov flies in his wife for her to witness a 2 minute debacle. I have grown more and more sour on Tippett as time goes on and this one was upsetting. Tippett’s contract expires at the end of the year. Does he know he won’t be coming back next season and thinks his best hope is 97 & 29 carry him to glory?
A coach with a long term picture doesn’t yank Samorukov after 2 minutes. He at least gets him back for a few shifts in the second period after the jitters subside. Now he’ll spend the rest of the season in the AHL hoping for an early season appearance next year. He has ~10 months to be reminded of a rough debut. A good coach pumps up his confidence, not stubbornly refusing to offer redemtion.
I wanted to look into this. Certainly looked like a bad matchup for the rookie in both goals against. I think on the first goal against, all I remember was that they were deep in the Blues zone and Bouch made that unfortunate pass that was intercepted. Was he shifted on the fly there?
It certainly would have been more ideal to ease Samorukov in at a home game.
I remember the last time the Oilers played the Blues, that I had mentioned Kyrou’s a player.
Someone, Bing I think, mentioned last night that Nurse used to get a lot of latitude after bad lapses.
Nurse used to do that thing where he would chase the puck carrier all over the Oilers d zone, right to blue line often, while no one was protecting the slot.
No, both GA started as OZ FO’s.
Wow
that is dink move in the Babcock realm
WTF is Kenny doing? I’d be having a chat. You did that and still lost? Time to expand your thinking and we’ll fly her in on our dime next time
Honestly it feels to me like Tipp wants out and is trying to get the pipe but won’t fall on his sword like Maurice
That 2:18 is probably going to be Sammy’s entire Oiler career.
You can play like crap for years (Turris, Shore etc) and still get sent back over the boards. If a rookie makes a mistake Tippet punishes them. Even better, Marody comes up, gets a point and is sent packing.
Holland and Tippet are not getting it done. If the Oilers do not make it to the conference finals, at the very least the coach should be replaced and maybe both.
Tippett claimed last night it was Gultzen’s decision. Either way, bad man management.
Play fair
You can delegate the authority to make the decision. You CANNOT delegate accountibility for the decision.
Tippett is RESPONSIBLE for the decision.
I’m not sure they even make the playoffs with Tippett behind the bench. If they do I expect they’ll be swept again. They can’t even show up ready to play 70% of the time. If this year looks like the last 2 under Tippett, we all know what to expect if they make the playoffs.
That was more than a mistake. Two awful mistakes that directly led to goals against, followed by a third shift that was ghastly. But it’s Tippett’s fault that he’s not focused on Samorukov’s confidence? This is the NHL, not some feel-good league. The player is not ready for the highest level.
That was a rookie making a mistake and then being punished?
I don’t agree.
I would say:
I do think he should have received a few more shifts in the 2nd after some time to settle down but this wasn’t a case of a mistake and a benching.
Weird year for Derek Ryan seems to be straightening out. Five-on-five goals for and against. First four games: 2-1; Last four games: 3-0; In between 1-15.
He hasn’t come close to who we were told he was. Undersized, slow… a non factor most nights.
If he can center a third- or fourth-line and come out around 50 percent goal share, that’s a massive win for this team. Last time we saw it was Mark Letestu in 2016-17.
Ryan has 2 points in 27 games on the season. He isn’t even a marginal threat to score these days.
Lennart Petrell had 9 points in his final 35 games as an Oiler.
Ryan needs 7 points in his next 8 games to catch Petrell’s swansong season as an Oiler.
To centre even an effective fourth line, he’d have to bat above the Mendoza line too, no?
9 points in 35 games (~20 points in a full season) is completely fine for a 4th line (even 3rd line) forward.
Agree Ryan has a ways to go to get there (and may not), but the scoring requirement is a modest one.
Over the course of the season, sure, I can agree with that.
At the same time, he was very good (and the player we were told e was) in the first few games. He got hurt. He came back and had a long stretch of being, well, terrible. He has recovered to being that player and very good for the last 4-5 games.
I think Ryan’s (the poster’s) work on Ryan (the player) was pretty convincing in showing that Ryan (the player) is not what we (including the poster) thought he (the player) was.
They need to aim higher for 3C, but they’re running out of assets and cap space and Holland can’t win a trade. So.
Staples and McCurdy discussed the game last evening. They mentioned Bouch being hit from behind and the closest ref was watching this and did make any motion call this hit. The center ice ref made the call and Bouch questioned the closer ref about this. Afterwards we see Bouch getting 2 iffy calls against him. Coincidence? I think not. NHL reffing is becommore pathetic.
The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if Canadian teams encounter ignorant officiating frequently when playing in U.S. cities? My subjective eyes suggest that the Oilers experience biased officiating (game management) more often when playing in the U.S.
That is so completely unacceptable and there is only one answer
The league and the oilers need all stale old farts out of the scene
I hadn’t noticed that, but it unfortunately explains a lot especially that last weird call for high sticking way behind the play.
This is from last year, but says a lot about NHL officiating:
https://soundofhockey.com/2021/03/27/analyzing-penalties-are-called-in-the-nhl/amp/
As does this:
November 1, 2021
Sid
@NHL_Sid
Some fun facts: Since May 1st, Connor McDavid is:
– 135th in Penalties Drawn
– 289th in Penalties Drawn/60
– 203rd in Penalties Taken/Drawn Differential/60
Poor Samy. I was looking forward to his debut for a few years…
coulda shoulda woulda
Keith-Bouch
KK-Barrie
Samy-CC
That might not have made a difference but it just might have made a bit more sense to give him at least the first period with a RD vet…there is always next year (unless he is traded).
Rather lack luster effort all around though. Put it down as rust and turkey maybe, but they really need to start playing with urgency from the drop of the puck very soon…there is always next year…
i have been a quiet Tippet supporter all along. I think the way he handled Sammy was atrocious. Yes, sit the kid for a bit, spend some time with him during the intermission and sent him back out there. I believe he will find success with his next team. I remember the first Condors game I went to and I thought Sammy was better than Bouch. I love his agressiveness, the kid is a player.
On the road against a good offensive team the Oil should have been trapping it up from the get go. Nope. Odd man rush after odd man rush. The usual suspects continue to do nothing. But this team was severely outcoached considering the weakness on D. How can you watch this team and out of the corner of your eye see Vancouver and ask “What if?”
The team before the stop in play were playing 4 lines. All players engaged. Now back to Tippet hockey I guess can not have a even keeled team when your name is Tippit. Some one better pick up the pieces.
Samorukov got benched, but among forwards only McLeod (7:42) got less than 9:30 on the night.
I don’t think there is a real difference between last night and ‘before the break’.
The team in Seattle was a 3-line team.
Both Marody and Griffith got apx 5:30 of ice and all with either McDavid or Drai.
Yup. And the previous game (with Tippett in covid protocol) Turris played 8:23, Benson 8:29, Lagesson 10:31.
Exactly. This team refuses to play team defence and gives up over 35 shots a night. The Canucks are right there.