It’s Been Rough and Rocky Travelling

by Lowetide

You can’t start a fire without a spark, and it was young rookie Ryan McLeod who provided it in the third period on Tuesday night. McLeod must have great radar, because he heard one million Edmontonians yell “shoot!” and did the deed to start the ball rolling. My goodness that was a wild third period and overtime.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: NYI, NYR, TOR (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-2-1)
  • At home to: OTT, FLA, CGY (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: NAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: MTL, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-1, 9 points in 10 games
  • Actual January results: 2-4-1, 5 points in 7 games
  • Oilers in 2021-22: 20-16-2, 42 points in 38 games

And suddenly the Oilers are in a virtual tie for third place in the Pacific Division and the December-January blahs are a nightmare best not revisited. I guess Nashville is the toughest, but we said the same about them all, we received our education, in the cities of the nation, me and Paul.

GOALTENDER

Mikko Koskinen had a solid night, the first goal came from range but was authored by a first-shot scorer. He stopped one Motte breakaway and not the other, I’ll take it. Now, do you run him against Nashville?

FORWARDS

  • Leon Draisaitl scored a massive goal in the third period—again—to tie the game and get the Oilers back to even. Seemed fresher than usual to me, shorter shifts? Don’t know. I don’t know if this line is going to work, but they had some things going. The line had eight shots and three high-danger chances. Jesse Puljujarvi picked up an assist and was useful on the power-play. Leon is a gift.
  • Connor McDavid scored a tremendous goal for this team, skated miles, is fantastic.He seemed to have the old swagger back, and became more determined with each brilliant Vancouver save. I don’t recall a game in many weeks where 97 had more brilliant chances or set up his linemates so well. Yamamoto must have had five cherry looks without scoring, my goodness he has to cash one of those.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had all the energy in last night’s game, I liked him in every discipline. Fab pass to 29 to tie it, he was in the way constantly on the PK. Four shots, I thought he had scored in overtime.
  • Ryan McLeod scored a massive goal to get the ball rolling, and I think the third line had some good moments. Kassian was getting pucks deep and making life difficult, while McLeod was using his speed to put the fear of God in the defensemen. I didn’t see Perlini much, he was crashing but not using his skill much.
  • Derek Ryan’s line is having some success now, Shore and Sceviour are veterans and they work pretty well together. In 47 five-on-five minutes together, the trio is 0-0 goals and has an expected goal share of 62 percent. I don’t know that the group will be together long, but one can hardly blame the coach for deploying them when the numbers shine so brightly.

DEFENSE

  • Darnell Nurse made a fantastic play on the winner, don’t know if he realized the matchup or just went for it, but it was a fine skill play. Nurse takes a ton on crap for what he isn’t, let’s give him some credit for what he is. A fine play. He was physical and recovered well. Feels like he’s back to full throttle now. Bouchard had 10 shot attempts, played well and showed some calm feet. I liked his game.
  • Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci blocked five shots and were a -1 on the night via the first goal, suspect the goaltender would like to have it back. Keith almost scored in overtime.
  • Kris Russell and Slater Koekkoek had an assist each on the McLeod goal, the defensive chores were divided up in a way where we didn’t see this duo much and I think it added to their effectiveness.

A BIG WIN

Edmonton needs to keep it going now, the Nashville game will be huge. We might find out about Evander Kane today, and Zach Hyman could line up with 97 or 29 as well. If Edmonton can roar through the end of January, people might be able to breathe again by Valentine’s Day. Edmonton is on pace for a 91-point season now, that’s probably not enough but there are games to come that can change the script.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a great show planned for you! It’s Bell Let’s Talk, but no guests specific to mental health this year to specifically talk, just a me and you and sharing the year and what it’s been. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will help us break down last night’s game, and John Horn (our tennis insider) will talk about the Australian Open and Canada’s impressive run on the men’s side. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

Per Nugent Bowman, at morning skate, Hyman is on the ice and Mikko is in the starters’ net.

Holland Tunnel

Given RNH’s mins on the PK & PP, it seems a tad strawman-ish to suggest Nuge has to play in the Top 6 for him to realize sufficient mins for optimal roster deployment to be achieved.

The more important consideration imo is what config gives the roster the best opportunity to achieve better goal production across the Top 9?

With McLeod for instance, we may be seeing the emergence of another 2L/3L swingman in real-time. Does burying this player on the 3L with subpar offensive players create the best opportunity for this player to produce to his potential ceiling?

We know what Nuge is in the Top 6 and from a Gs perspective, it can be streaky and underwhelming. Let him anchor a 3L and be a special teams savant. THAT is the Guy Carbonneau role and on a Cup contender, it’s the most suitable role to get full cap value from RNH. Start as you mean to go.

Last edited 2 years ago by Holland Tunnel
godot10

McLeod is a better puck transporter, better at faceoffs, better at skating, and less suited to playing wing than Nugent-Hopkins.

Nugent-Hopkins is an elite passer and thus is better suited to playing with elite skill.

McLeod will be a far more effective player as a third line player playing with plugs, than Nugent-Hopkins would be.

jp

FWIW Dom’s rest of season model has the Oilers pulling ahead of LA and Anaheim to finish 3rd in the Pacific.

https://theathletic.com/3094596/2022/01/27/by-the-numbers-projecting-teams-performances-in-the-second-half-of-the-nhl-season-2/

Ice Sage

Yeah that’s almost surreal but Oilers do have a bunch of games in hand

jp

Yeah they are super close right now by points percent, the fewer games makes it look like there’s a gap but there really isn’t.

It’s so close actually that either one win for Edmonton, OR one loss for either other team would shuffle the points percentage standings.

Randle McMurphy

The Oilers schedule looks very difficult to me. But the team has had a strong 2nd half push in previous seasons and the schedule will soon see a lot of inter-division games where our divisional opponents wil be playing each other making it hard for anyone to pull away form the pack, and KANE!

jp

According to Dom’s model they have the 16th hardest schedule through the rest of the season. And yes, definitely lots of in conference games.

OriginalPouzar

Deharnais – plus 5 with 2 assists

Neimelainen – plus 4 with a goal

Marody a couple assists in his return

Griffith a couple goals in his return

Randle McMurphy

Seth Griffith, an AHL journeyman who has made in excess of $3m before reaching the age of 30. The reward for failing out of the NHL is really quite substantial.

#ItsAWonderfulLife

OriginalPouzar

Just off the end of a PP, the puck rims around to Niemelainen who steps up for a solid keep – it goes down low and passed to Lavoie in the slot but the puck goes through the slot and back to Niemelainen at the point who’s weak snap shot finds in way in to the net.

OriginalPouzar

Skilled pass by Holloway to spring Griffith on a partial break – stick breaks on the shot though.

dynamicdylancoach

Was researching why Patrick Laine early career goal mastery has gone MIA and overheard this on a Black and Blue Jackets blog about tonights game,

“You know this game was a shittzshow when Elvis allowed six goals and his save percentage was a fecking .903.”

Last edited 2 years ago by dynamicdylancoach
OriginalPouzar

Holloway almost gets his 1st pro goal:

https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1486540679903793153

OriginalPouzar

Missed the second period of the Condors game but have gone back to watch the tape of their two goal – they were both as a result of great play by d-men keepign the puck in.

First a GREAT turnover forced by Kesselring – puck goes to Safin down low who feeds Kambeitz in the slot.

The second started with a blueline keep by Deharnais.

Goal against was a point shot on the PP.

Bill

4-1 Condors leading in the 2nd

OriginalPouzar

Dylan Holloway takes the puck at his own hashmarks, goes behind his own net, bulls his way up the right side and in to the offensive zone. Once possession is lots, takes on two Tuscon players and wins that battle, gets the puck towards the middle of the ice and draws a penalty.

An epic 20 seconds.

Harpers Hair

Don’t know if anyone is watching Flames @ Columbus but Johnny Hockey has been ridiculously good.

Flames lead 4-0 early in the 3rd…shots are 41-18 in favour of the Flames.

Harpers Hair

Flames end up with 62 SOG in a 6-0 win…oh my.,

Ranford.85

Contract year boost? It’s well documented he’s a great player but he also doesn’t do well with the more physical style of playoff hockey.

OriginalPouzar

Perfect timing for his UFA contract.

Harpers Hair

Nah…they will move Monahan and have $37 million in free cap space.

OriginalPouzar

They have over $50MM committed with 11 players.

Fine, move Monohan (which will cost an asset to move without retaining and make the team worse) and they have $37MM for 13 player – considering Gaudreau and Tkachuck will take half of that….

OriginalPouzar

It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the $9MM QO Tkachuck needs.

Ranford.85

My wife is a Flames fan and when I laughed out loud at your comment, she asked about what I was reading.

After a brief explanation, she said she would appreciate it if you didn’t give Gaudreau your patented “kiss of death”.

Stick to the Nucks, or was it the Avalanche? Or was it Vegas? Or was it… etc. No integrity.
How’s Rafferty doing btw?

Harpers Hair

Not being a “fan” hardly indicates a lack of integrity.

Rafferty is doing pretty much as I expected FTR.

meanashell11

So he has the Norris? I must have missed that?

pts2pndr

Going on a site of Oiler fans and trolling using the other 31 teams as examples of an organization doing something better than the Oilers in conjunction with half truths and moving goal posts is a definite indication or your integrity sir!

DevilsLettuce

Brogan is not a top 4 NHL defender which is what you repeatedly told the group.

Genjutsu

But he’s pretty much as he expected.

So I guess that’s that.

flyfish1168

No big secret. johhny is going back to a US base team out east and matheaw is going o Saint Louis. The good thing is they won’t be trading them and they are just walking away.

OriginalPouzar

Tuscon with full possession behind their net in “reset mode” – stationary for 5 seconds, as the defender starts to make a play, the puck just slides off his stick to Brosseau in front who buries his 5th to tie the game.

OriginalPouzar

Condors with PP possession for a full minutes or so, a couple of puck retrievals, one of which sees it squeak back to Kaldis at the point, over to the right side for Griffith who snaps one home with 10 seconds left.

Marody MAY get the secondary, I think he poked it loose in retrieval but tough to say.

OriginalPouzar

A Barrie-like pinch by Kemp at the offensive blue leads to a 2 on 1 and a 1-0 deficit.

OriginalPouzar

Coach’s Conversation with Woody:

Holloway lots of ice in his first two game and we’re excited for him to keep taking the next step.

Lavoie: player development is rarely a straight line. For Ralph, his game started to take off when the team started to take off. Some things are going in the back of the net for him but he’s doing good things away from the puck and that’s why he’s being rewarded with more ice. We don’t give things away, players have to “earn the jersey” – the more players show or earn the more they get. First few months didn’t go according to his script but that’s OK. He worked through some adversity and has got better and better. Now the challenge for him is to continue to bring it. If he does, he’ll continue on with the upward trajectory.

Griffth and Marody back: Yup, adding that type of skill makes us a better team. For us to do what we’ve done since before X-mas with the fluidity of the lineup is a credit to the players in the locker room. To have Coop and Seth to come back in the lineup, it makes us a better team and a deeper team.

Rodrigue: Lets not forget, he was on protocol around Christmas and couldn’t be around the team for a long time due to the border. We sent him to Wichita to get some games in and, when he came up, he was confident and there was a sharpness for him. He’s meticulously prepared.

ArmchairGM

I just realized what the NHL’s discipline for Kane will be: the team that signs him will have to give up a 2nd round pick.

It’s the Oilers way.

90s fan

Grim laughter ensues.

Randle McMurphy

Unless your Lou Lamoriello in which case it’s a 7th round pick

OriginalPouzar

I presume it’s COVID related for Broberg.

Per Ryan Holt:

Alright here we go… 

Condors get Marody, Griffith and Safin back. Lose Broberg. 

Rodrigue looks for his 4th straight win. 

OriginalPouzar

Rodrigue: 2.33/.930 over last four starts.

Holt says Broberg’s absence is NOT related to the head shot he took last game.

Malone still out (and a few lesser lights) – Holt thinks he should be eligible soon.

OriginalPouzar

So, Turris is off the roster which makes room for Hyman being activated.

Who gets waived when Kane is added to the roster (presuming no additional injuries)? Choices:

Ryan
Sceviour
Perlini
Shore
Benson

I go predict Sceviour or Shore and, yes, I think Tip/Holland will do it.

Ryan

Turris was the OTF leader until he was loaned to the taxi squad.

Next up to bat is Devon Shore although we’re splitting hairs between Shore, Sceviour, Benson, and Ryan.

jp

You really think?

I think in order of likelihood: Perlini, Benson, Ryan, Sceviour/Shore.

That’s my guess on what will happen, rather than what should happen (though I think Perlini would be my first choice too).

Ryan

By TOI at 5v5, it goes Turris, Scevior, Shore, Perlini, then Benson.

By OTF, it goes Turris, Shore, Benson, Scevior then Ryan.

By GF%, it’s Ryan, Benson, Turris, Foggy, then Sceviour.

Combining these, and weighing in heavily GF% (which Holland loves), you would think Ryan would be the guy especially since no one would claim him.

However, he leads the team in PK toi/g.

I don’t know, Benson and Perlini don’t PK so that makes them both vulnerable.

Benson still has the “loss aversion” bias keeping him on the team since he was drafted in the second round.

Perlini’s a good bet.

Benson and Perlini are basically tied in all strengths TOI/g at 8:37 and 8:38.

There’s a slight chance that the Oilers let go of Benson.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
jp

I think it will almost certainly be one of Perlini or Benson. They’ve basically been sharing a lineup spot while the others have been mostly regulars when healthy (also PK like you mention).

I think D zone starts gives a little bit of a counter point to the OTF starts. Ryan and Sceviour are getting those (also Shore/Perlini to a lesser extent), which likely argues Tippett values/trusts them.

Shore-Ryan-Sceviour are also playing pretty decently lately. They’re all over 50% shots lately (and Ryan is on the full season).

Between Perlini and Benson I’m not so sure. Perlini has actually posted offense (and recently). Benson has a more rounded game and has looked decent too. My guess is they’ll keep Benson of the two because risk aversion and Benson is generally more engaged, but I agree he could be the one to go.

OriginalPouzar

Good info.

I don’t see them waiving Benson – I could totally be wrong but I don’t think Holland will do it. Lets remember, Holland values younger players for longer – Benson is still young in his eyes.

I’m sure he knows the chances of Sceviour, Shore, etc. being picked up is minimal and, even if one is lost, given a material addition to the forwards (Kane), it may not provide too much heartburn.

OriginalPouzar

Lets not recall, Shore was waived last season, twice I think.

jp

Yeah for sure, not suggesting it could never happen. I’m just trying to read the tea leaves. The biggest tell IMO is who’s been healthy scratched, which points pretty clearly at Perlini and Benson.

Scungilli Slushy

It’ll be Benson

Should be Perlini for me, he has a nice shot but that’s about it. Defensive play and checking is more valuable bottom 6. And Kane would be replacing his shot

I feel Benson is like McLeod. If he’s given enough time to settle he’ll be good, get his offensive mojo going

I looked how Yama is doing compared to all forwards by production and he’s just hanging on in goals and outside in points compared to the top 192 forwards

Playing with who he does. I’d bump him down if Kane lands. It’s better for him anyways to get more confidence and work on his game

godot10

It should be Perlini, or next up, Shore, but it will be Benson.

Ryan

It could be Benson. No goals. Worst GF% after Ryan. Rates poorly by OTF starts and total toi/game. Doesn’t PK.

I think it should be Shore, but it could be Perlini or Benson.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

It has got to be Shore. Please be Shore.

greenshifter

It should be Kassian.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

I’m hoping for Benson … he deserves a get out of jail card. I would like to see him get a chance with a new organization. Somewhere far, far away from the Tippett shitshow.

jp

Well Kane isn’t signing with the Oilers, right?

So no reason to expect Benson or anyone to actually be waived.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

I’m holding out hope that there is still an organization more morally compromised than this one that steps up to the plate and signs this POS. If not, I can take some solace that a young man that has faced an awful lot of adversity gets a real chance at an NHL career.

jp

Huh, that’s definitely a different angle (err, two) than I was expecting.

After your numerous posts to the effect that Holland is a chump who’s only being used to drive up the price for Kane, that’s a curveball.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Not at all. I still believe that EDM is not on Kane’s list of preferred destinations. But it seems like no other organization, except perhaps the Caps?, is willing to step into the gutter and meet his asking price.

Holland remains a chump, but regrettably, there appear to be no other suckers. It is what it is. Hope this clarifies my position. Beat of wishes, JP.

jp

Yes that’s more clear. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Tip said today that Hyman skated by himself today – waiting on a test before he can join the group.

Presuming the test is negative, I would think he plays tomorrow night even without a skate with the group.

OriginalPouzar

Turris to the taxi squad……that opens up $1.125M of cap space…….

McNuge93

Do teams have to have a 23 man roster to utilize the taxi squad or can you save on cap by running a 21 or 22 man roster and have players available on the taxi squad if needed?

Gerta Rauss

The minimum roster a team can run is 20

Yes, teams can save cap space by running a sub 23 man roster, however, the Oilers have been in LTIR since day 1 so they’re not really ‘saving’ or accruing cap space (they’ve been over the cap since day 1, and been dipping into their LTIR reserves in order to ice a complete roster)

And they’ve had a ton of injuries (which count against the cap) And have had players on/off LTIR all year(including Mike Smith just today)

It’s tremendously complex to calculate – I’m no expert but I hope that answer helps

Munny 2.0

I believe teams exploited this last year, especially since taxi can practice with varsity.

But they put something in place to prevent that this time round, pretty sure. Can’t remember what it is off the top of my head though, sorry.

I’ll see if I can dig it up.

Munny 2.0

Courtesy these guys.

Ineligible:

  • On NHL Roster on December 22
  • waivers exempt
  • on NHL Roster 54 days
  • played 16 of last 20 NHL Games

Makes it so you can’t pop regular roster players on and off the taxi squad just for cap purposes.

Gerta Rauss

Cheers

Your answer is better because, you know, you actually answered the question posed LOL

jp

I didn’t read the question correctly until now either, lol. I *thought* you did a great job 🙂

jp

Now I’m a little worried.

They wouldn’t *need* to move Turris off the roster to open cap for Kane unless he’s costing more than $2.5M.

Though if Kane is incoming I guess Turris needs to be off the roster regardless of cap (they have 23 players currently without Kane or Hyman).

I guess this could just mean Hyman is returning and nothing else.

Sorry, that turned into a bit of a ramble.

Panda

Sorry for the really dumb question gang. Been lurking here for years and there are occasional references to a “song of the day”. I can’t for the life of me figure out how to access that song. Any help?

Bobcaygeon

Sometimes it’s the title and other times it’s in the story. The first sentence is a Bruce Springsteen song.

fishman

Today’s song is “Me and Paul”. Willie Nelson does a great version!

813.52Ran

Willie’s song. Written by him in the early 70s about his relationship with his long-time drummer and partner in crime, Paul English.

Panda

Thanks to all for responding to my brain dead question. I see it now.

Bling

Is it 2007 all over again? That team acquired Roloson and went to the finals.

Koskinen is at -4.29 GSAA, 45/52 goalies playing over 500 minutes.

Fleury is at +0.75 on a bad team (24/52). Holtby is +4.54 (16/52).

A historically good forward corps with Kane, Hyman, and Holloway all to be added in the coming weeks. The D seems to be sorting itself out.

I think a lesser (non elite cluster) prospect or pick for a goalie is a good move.

dustrock

Fleury makes too much and has a NTC. Money needs to go out and he needs to agree.

OriginalPouzar

A Fleury deal would need to involve 3 teams I think which makes the acquisition cost more for the Oilers.

jp

Following up on my reply earlier. Why wouldn’t Chicago retain on Fleury and take back Koskinen (assuming the other parts of the trade made sense)?

Fleury with 35% retained costs the same as Koskinen, so they don’t spend money they wouldn’t have already spent.

They don’t appear to have goalies behind Fleury who they want/need to give playing time to. Their backup Lankinen is a Fin, UFA at the end of the year, and having a tough season. Their other pro goalies don’t appear to be knocking on the door for playing time.

If Chicago decides to sell, Koskinen in to replace Fleury doesn’t hurt them in any way.

Chicago will want to get the best assets they can for Fleury, so them retaining and taking back Koskinen in the deal would be close to immaterial IMO.

And I’m just using this as a nice example. Most teams the Oilers could potentially rent a goalie from would be in a similar place I’d think.

OriginalPouzar

I understand your premise but cap space is an asset and teams and getting teams to take on negative value contracts and retaining on assets sold will cost. The Hawks could use their cap space to help other capped out teams open up space, for a price – they aren’t going to fill up that cap space for not cost.

jp

OK, that’s fair. It is conceivable that Chicago could use the cap opened up by trading Fleury to take on another teams money.

I don’t know though. Deadline deals where the selling team takes back cap and bodies to even things out are way more common than what you’re suggesting.

Also, pretty much every team the Hawks might sell Fleury to will be in a similar situation, so ‘the price’ of retaining and/or taking back salary kind of doesn’t matter. Fleury will go to the team that’s bidding the highest.

jp

Can’t argue the NTC if the Oilers are on the list, but 40% retained in exchange for Koskinen works. Questions is what’s the sweetener? And is Fleury willing?

OriginalPouzar

What is the acquisition cost just for Fleury?

Is it a 1st? Is it Samorukov and a 2nd?

Add on the cost of taking Koskinen back and retaining half on Fleury – that deal is cost prohibitive, isn’t it?

jp

I don’t know the cost. Guess it depends on how many bidders.

As I said, I don’t think there’s much or any added cost to retaining/taking back Koskinen.

The comment I replied to, and your first comment are both (partly) about cap hit.

OriginalPouzar

I’ll disagree about the cost of retaining plus taking back bad cap – that’s OK though – don’t have to agree.

jp

We can agree to disagree. I’ll just say that I think the cost of cap space is radically different mid-season (for non-playoff teams) than it is in the off season.

ArmchairGM

You need to be looking at GSAx rather than GSAA. It takes the whole “good team / bad team” thing out of the equation.

Ryan

I have looked at GSAx in the past. While it’s an intriguing stat, there was hardly any year-over-year correlation for any given player.

There is Gibson in who has strung together a bunch of good years by GSAx, but most people it varied too much from one year to the next. Hellebuyck shows up well on various years too.

You would expected it to be more repeatable if it’s measuring goalie ability

ArmchairGM

Is “goalie ability” repeatable though? There are very few goalies who are consistently good from year to year. Like, fewer than five, I reckon.

Last edited 2 years ago by ArmchairGM
Ryan

Well as GeorgeXS once opined, if it isn’t repeatable or predictive, then what is it useful for? If you just want to know who had the best year, what does it tell you over SV% and goals against average?

jp

That really was some good opining.

GR

Brett Connolly on waivers you say…
*I know they don’t have the cap space, and a player goes on waivers for a reason, but his name has frequented this site over the years. Kane + Connolly would certainly alter the forward dynamic.

Reja

And Alex Chaisson who quickly became a bridesmaid after the Oilers lost the Connolly sweepstakes keeps on ticking and covering the bet. He sure took a lot of shit and abuse in these parts because he was eating up a whole 2.4 percent of the cap. I thought he played a feisty good game last night and he was unlucky to score.

Ryan

You just gotta love Kenny the grinder. I’m sure that Tulsky, Barnes, and Sprigings are marvelling at how efficiently Kenny maintains our cap health.

He certainly did a bang up job on the negotiations for the Chiasson and Kassian contracts.

Recall, that he bought out Sekera so that he could sign Connolly pay Chiasson $2.15m per…

That’s almost a million per year more than Chiasson was ever paid.

Fun fact, the Sekera buyout is still on our dead cap for $1.5m for this year and next.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
Harpers Hair

Another fun fact…Sekera continues to play an important role in Dallas.

Ranford.85

Important role in Dallas? Please do explain. 3rd pairing sure doesn’t scream “important role”. Have you watched many Dallas games this year? Or is this just another one of your anti-Oilers comments that holds no true validity?

Harpers Hair

Sekera has appeared in 23 games this season….at a cap hit of $1.5 million.

Kris Russel has played in 17 games this season..at a cap hit of $1.25 million PLUS the $1.5 million cap hit the Oilers are still paying for the Sekera this year and next.

I’ll take $1.5 million over $2.75 million for a depth defenseman any day…SMH.

It’s an efficiency contest and once again Holland is on the wrong end of the equation.

Ranford.85

You speak of his contract and compare it to that of an Oilers defenseman, but you have yet to explain his “important role” for Dallas.

Harpers Hair

A cheap, veteran defenseman who has played 23 games on the bottom pairing is “important” when teams need a reliable fill in.

That the Oilers are paying him more than the Stars to perform that role while also paying Russell to perform the same job is an indictment of Holland.

OriginalPouzar

I guess EVERY player on the team plays an important role.

Slater Koekkoek plays an important role for the Oilers.

Harpers Hair

If he wasn’t playing an important role…he wouldn’t be on the team but worth noting Sekera has played more games than Koekoek on a team that has a MUCH better D than the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

So every player on the team plays an important role – that is your position – clearly.

Reja

I laugh at how supposedly the most knowledgeable fan base in the league isn’t questioning Hollands buy-out of Sekera at the moment it happened and as of today. Holland walked into a dream scenario and here we are looking up at the last wild card spot.

OriginalPouzar

None of that has anything to do with “important role”.

I just provided actual information regarding the role he’s been playing – a sheltered depth role.

Ranford.85

Per Rotowire  JAN 13, 2022

Sekera has gone five games without a point.

In that stretch, Sekera also sat out five games as a healthy scratch. The 35-year-old blueliner is not an everyday presence in the lineup, and he only sees third-pairing usage when he plays.

… yeah he sounds really important to the Dallas Stars, SMH.

OriginalPouzar

By “important” you mean 3rd pairing:

5th TOI/G at 5 on 5
6th TOI/G overall
5th TOI/G PK

INSANELY sheltered at evens with 16% TOI vs elites, 39% against mids and 44.5% against grits.

He never recovered from the Getzlaf injury (and the subsequent injuries) and couldn’t be kept on the roster at $5.5M.

Harpers Hair

Keep paying the piper and suffer the consequences.

There was ZERO justification for buying him out.

His contract would have expired a year ago and the Oilers wouldn’t be stuck with the dead money for this season and another.

It was a dumb move.

jp

It is a good thing Holland got outbid by the Panthers for the guy all the Armchair Analytics Directors wanted.

Maybe not a perfect decision to check down to a guy who scored more for 2/3 the price and half the term, but much less damaging.

And wasn’t Dzingel the other obvious option that year? He had a couple more points than Chiasson, but he was also paid more than 1/3 more.

It’s easy to say ‘it should have been done differently’ but much harder to actually get everything right.

Edit: I guess Tulsky vetted the Dzingel signing.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Ryan

Last night, Spencer Martin reminded me of that game with Richard Bachman against the LA Kings.

Bulging Twine

Not sure if this has been shared…

Mike Kelly

@MikeKellyNHL

Couple notes from EDM vs VAN last night…
OZ puck on stick possession time = 12:16 – 3:53 EDM.
A league-wide high for the season by EDM.
Draisaitl had it for 2:34 – most by any player in a game this season.
McDavid’s 16 possession entries most by a player in a game this season.

Bulging Twine

.

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
YYCOil

I feel like the elite lines have 3 very strong NHL players,

a playmaker
a goal scorer and
puck retriever.

Our top 6 needs another goal scorer.

Hyman -retriever
McDavid – play maker
Yamamoto – retriever

Nuge – play maker
Driasailt – goal scorer
Puljajarvi – retriever

Kane is a goal scorer if he is inserted on McDavid’s line there will be more balance.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Kane – McD – Yamo/JP
RNH – Drai – Yamo/JP
Foegele – McLeod – Hyman

Boom! Stanly Cup!

Reja

Where’s Holloway once he’s up to speed?

Last edited 2 years ago by Reja
Kert

I’d put the RWs in this order: Hyman, JP, Yamo.

Elgin R

Agreed on the RWs. Yamo does not finish enough – can Hyman do better? I think he may.

knighttown

I’m surprised to hear such positivity around Koskinens performance last night. Natural stat trick has him at 2 goals on 3 HD scoring chances. The AHL guy saved 10 of 13.

Koskinen was the weakest Oiler and the weaker of the goalies but got bailed out by an excellent team performance.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think Mikko was great at all. He was “OK” or “fine” in my books.

Neither goal was “bad” per se but both were “stoppable”.

He did make a couple solid saves and the breakaway save was a big one but that is what adequate goaltending is.

He was far from great but he was OK.

I go with Skinner tomorrow.

Bling

I would like to commend RNH for a brilliant pass last night. Tracked the loose puck and head up the entire way, fired a seed on the tape to Draisaitl right in the latter’s wheelhouse. That is beautiful stuff.

Nuge is such a smart player. I know everyone wants to see unicorns, but that chem between RNH-Drai is really something to behold.

McLeod’s goal was a bit soft on Martin, that said his zone entry on the play was anything but. The criticism of him not attacking the net enough is no longer relevant. He is the 3C, and a good one. I suspect his offensive output will spike with one of Kane/Hyman/RNH on his wing. Already at 1.5 EV points/60; perfectly suitable for a 3C with his defensive game.

With Kane + Hyman plus the addition of Holloway at some point, this will be the deepest the Oilers have been at forward since the 80s. How about that? The last team that comes close would have been the 2007 team, and this one is much better.

Randle McMurphy

“With Kane + Hyman plus the addition of Holloway at some point, this will be the deepest the Oilers have been at forward since the 80s.”

Agreed

~ But not a nickel more than $1.2 or Kenny is a loser~

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

I know that’s at least partially for me and, of course, I never said that.

OriginalPouzar

1) That pass was indeed brilliant – that was a LONG cross-ice pass and it was a bullet and perfect for Drai – if it wasn’t perfectly placed, given the length and Martin being over, that’s likely not a goal.

I would like to give some kudos to Jesse on that play – Nuge doesn’t get the puck to pass without that long stick “puck retrieval pass” by Jesse.

2) The goal was certainly weak but, again, 100%, the transition and zone entry was key. That is why McLeod should not be with McDavid (or really in the top 6) – his greatest attribute is that neutral zone transition carry and zone entry – its valuable in the bottom six and lost in the top 6

3) If all healthy and Holloway’s pro transition continues as smoothly as it started, that could allow Nuge at 3C (McLeod at 4C) and Foegele back on the 3rd line – amazing!

Bling

Absolutely Jesse deserves kudos on that play. He is so good at turning over pucks. 21 minutes plus and he was out there for OT.

McDavid/Draisaitl/RNH/McLeod down the middle is championship caliber. With Kane and Holloway, the wing position is also elite.

I don’t blame Lawton for saying they should “go for it,” though as I’ve always maintained, you have to keep the elite prospects.

Munny 2.0

Apologies if this was already mentioned, but Mike Smith is now officially on LTIR (as one would expect).

OriginalPouzar

Retro to Jan 5.

Needed to put him on LTIR with the Nuge activation or else they’d have less than $500K in cap space (again).

Tip said the other day they hope he’s ready after the all-star break – so its going to be at least a bit.

Munny 2.0

For those not listening to Stauffer:

Brian Lawton just stated that he would stake his professional reputation on going all-in this season. He believes in this team and thinks they just need an elite goaltender. He would chase someone like Fleury.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Jethro Tull

Well, he’ll have to make do with a power forward with a poop load of baggage.

godot10

How long did Lawton last as a GM? Went all-in pretty early there, resulting in a tire fire for two years.

Those who can’t do, are media pundits.

Bling

He has a bit of a point. Historically good forwards. The D is okay.

Get a goalie and you can go on a bit of a run. I wouldn’t trade any of the elite prospects, but maybe you do something with a pick.

flyfish1168

What is his ulterior motive? Then you will see why he said what he said. I believe we are more than just a goalie away.

Scungilli Slushy

I only use + and comment if I don’t agree with the commenter. Or just keep scrolling.

Minus is too easy.

OriginalPouzar

The Oilers may have been the better team in the game against Florida. There is no doubt they were early. They lost the game 6-0 (it got away late).

The flames were the better team against the Oilers – The Oilers won 5-3.

The Oilers dominated the Canucks for 50 minutes (all but the first half of the 2nd period) and it took a multi-goal comeback in the 3rd and OT to get the deserved two points.

That’s the NHL!

Now: Give me some Evander Kane!

norm2015

Hockey isnt X and O s like other sports indeed! Anything can happen and good teams lose bad teams win at times

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

So it’s reported to be down to two teams willing to prostitute themselves for Kane. EDM widely named to be one but not a whisper of who this second team might be? Haha. Hahahaha.

Munny 2.0

Washington has been the whisper.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Kane with Wilson has a lot of entertainment value. I can see the attraction.

Jethro Tull

The other team is Edmonton.

dustrock

Kenny negotiating against himself ha ha ha ha ha ha

the-winston

KH will inadvertently send 1st round pick to San Jose, because he thinks nothing is for free.

Munny 2.0

The NHL has a new Ironman.

Congrats to Keith Yandle, whose streak began under the coaching of a certain former Oiler great one…

OriginalPouzar

Very very impressing.

I think that, in due course, Yandle’s record will be beat by…. Phil Kessell.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

A hotdog a day keeps the doctor away.

Munny 2.0

Not the Dman record, which, IMO is more impressive.

godot10

Yandle plays non contact hockey.

Munny 2.0

Might also be that former coach’s birthday today.

DBO

Goalie: lets hope fleury goes to Washington cause that frees up Vanicek or Samsonov for possible trade and both are better long term options then anything in our system right now and both have started in the NHL and carried the load before.

Kane is a done deal it seems, so how does it shake out. I really hope to see this as a third line
Nuge-McLeod-Hyman

That would a solid 2nd line, and if Kane slides into Nuge’s spot beside Connor, then this line would absolutely crush the opposition soft parade they would see as the 3rd line.

31saves

I am not convinced that Samsonov is better than Skinner tbh…

leadfarmer

Only an Oiler fan would say that. 97% of the teams would disagree

Randle McMurphy

“Kane is a done deal it seems”

Really? How so?

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
flyfish1168

If scoring in hockey is by shooting and hitting the goal post we would win by a landslide. It is crazy the amount Leon, Yamo and the team have wrung it off the iron.

Randle McMurphy

How big a lead in the scoring race would Drai have if goalposts counted for 1/2 a point 🙂

Cassandra

The top 11 teams in GF at 5on5 are all in a playoff spot and all of them will cruise into the playoffs. You have to get to 12 (Columbus) before you find a team that won’t make the playoffs.

The top 12 teams in GA includes:

Islanders out of the playoffs
Flames:likely makes it, but no sure thing
Canucks: out of the playoffs
Kings: borderline, but in the playoffs today
Jets: borderline, but likely out
Stars: borderline, but in playoffs today

Remind me why defense is more important than offense.

The best teams in the NHL all score goals at top rates. The best teams are preventing goals are not always good.

Offense wins championships.

Harpers Hair

It’s really goal differential that is the determinant…it tracks final standings almost perfectly every season.

Florida +50, Colorado +49 and Carolina +46 are the elite teams

As you work your way down the list, every team down to the 16th position is currently in a playoff spot with Dallas -1, Edmonton -3 and Winnipeg -5 knocking on the door.

As to your supposition that it’s all offence, teams garner their goal differentials by different ways.

The Oilers are a god example of this.

While they are 10th in the league in GF/G at 3.24, they give it all back and then some with a GA/G of 3.37

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

The Oilers are 22nd in 5v5 goals. Scoring is definitely an issue. Nashville, famous for lacking high-end offensive talent, has scored more 5v5 goals this season than Edmonton.

Harpers Hair

Nashville is very good example of what I’m talking about.

They are 13th in the league in GF/GP at 3.11 but they have a goal differential of +20 thanks to allowing only 2.70 GA/GP.

As you’ve pointed out, if the Oilers PP was not so successful, they would be in a world of hurt.

Reja

You add Kane and Holloway and get rid of a couple of non effective softies up front for the Goalie in Seattle and Bob’s your uncle.

pts2pndr

Oilers 5 on 5 would be much better if the zebras called the constant holding and interference on Draisaitl and McDavid. If they did the Oilers scoring at even strength would improve exponentially!

Sierra

This actually is a very good point.

knighttown

Well yeah, of course goal differential is more important than GF. The Op’s post is suggesting that if you have to choose one to influence to be a dominant regular season team it’s offence. The league is filled with teams that can clog it up and reduce games to a coin flip. But when the offence goes stale and you start losing a bunch of 2-1 games, you end up like the Islanders and the Canadiens this year.

Building a juggernaut allows you to pull away from the bad teams. The question is whether you can win the 2-1 games in the playoffs because the NHL believes you should play a completely different sport come June.

Harpers Hair

Of course scoring more is always great but it doesn’t matter much if you give it all back.

Columbus scores more goals than the Rangers but they trail the Rags by 23 points in the standings.

The Leafs score 3.37 GF/GP (9th) just ahead of the Oilers at 3.24 (10th) but have 11 more points in the standings (in a much tougher division) because they only give up 2.61 GA/GP.

knighttown

Good post

Ryan

Can’t quite recall where I read it.

Some pundit suggested that the Oilers should trade for Vitek Vanecek.

jp

Lotta worse options out there. Why would Washington be selling though?

Gerta Rauss

I think the train of thought is WSH will have an extra goalie after they acquire MAF

jp

Yes, I saw that after. Seems like a reasonable bet, though far from a sure thing.

If the Caps are looking for a goalie that says a lot already.

Munny 2.0

The NHL investigation is entering its “final phase”?

Like WTF?

LMHF#1

Bettman flexing because he can. Blech.

These Commissioner roles are the worst.

Randle McMurphy

Bettman, that’s WTF. 🙂

And Lamoriello and Burke and ….

Ryan

comment image

comment image

Kevin Weekes

@KevinWeekes

As the

@NHL

investigation is reaching its final phase ; Sources tell me that Evander Kane’s Camp have notified interested clubs, that it’s down to two teams. Bearing any last minute changes as of now the

@EdmontonOilers

are the likeliest destination for Kane.

@espn

@NHLNetwork

Brantford Boy

I just hope he leaves the baggage at the gate of his departure city. I also assume Crazy Eyes is up to the task of keeping him in check.

Jethro Tull

Dustin Buff coulgn’t straighten him out.

Randle McMurphy

No one in the locker room is going to influence/babysit Kane. To think otherwise would be fool hardy.

#EyesWideOpen

Only Money and Circumstance will keep Kane in check.

#BigDollarContractOnTheLine

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

Besides, why would he need baggage? He has NO money to stuff in his suitcases anymore. 🙂

Reja

Kane is broke you don’t stir up shit when you know if you play like a bat out of hell with the 2 best Centres in the league there’s a chance for one last big payday next year. If Kane scores 17-20 for the remaining games he’s back to wining and dining as a life style.

pts2pndr

Kane is a free spirit! They do not do well in overly restrictive environments. Key is for the coach to assure a dressing room culture and expectations that works for all!

Randle McMurphy

$$$ turn “likeliest” into “certainty”

Expressing it Kane Style … “Make it Rain”

#millionS

#TWOToBePrecise

Shamus23

Sounds like decision now slips to tom. Lmao. What a joke

Randle McMurphy

This has Lamoriello written all over it.

Jethro Tull

Let’s see what Kenny can do now he has the advantage in a negotiation for once! Oh, wait…

Randle McMurphy

If “Happenstance” counts as part of your track record, Kenny could raise his batting average by more than a few points here. 🙂

More than a few opposing GM’s are going to be “not happy” with this outcome.

There are those who didn’t want him, there are those would could not fit him in. But all of them are going to hate the idea that he’s an Oiler.

That’s if Bettman and Lamoriello (Sam Pollock) let it happen

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

Preds Mikko
Habs Stuart
Sens Mikko
Caps Mikko
6 day break
Knights Mikko
Hawks Stuart

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
JimmyV1965

Holy crap. We need a new goalie way before then. We know what Mikko is. He’s capable of a few good games and a long run of bad ones.

pts2pndr

Haste makes waste so circumstances may dictate the timing on a upgrade in goaltending. This is where Holland not getting some cap hold back when acquiring Keith may come back to bite him on the ass!

JimmyV1965

Stunning that Vancouver is on this list. How is it possible with this:

OEL-Myers
Hughes-Poolman
Hunt-Schenn

ArmchairGM

A couple of decent games and we’re overplaying Mikko again? NO lessons learned?

Randle McMurphy

No choice really.

I don’t think the problem is starting Koskinen; I think the problem is not pulling Koskinen when it’s appropriate to do so.

#ShortLeash

ArmchairGM

They do have a choice though.

Skinner .907
– or –
Koskinen .899

There’s absolutely no reason Koskinen should get 3 of the next 4 starts.

pts2pndr

Do you pull him after the first weak goal or the second one? Asking for a friend!😉

Lutefisk

Say what you will about Evander Kane, one of his finest moments was taking out Matt Cooke.

Munny 2.0

Should be a statue for that

Jethro Tull

What about Max Domi knocking out Kessler?

jake70

Anyone else think McLeod deserved a shift in overtime — wide open, non contact pond hockey, he scored a goal – why not? Run the hell out of the high end players though, and they scored this time granted.

Genjutsu

Hard to argue with deployment in overtime with results like that, no?

OriginalPouzar

Evander Kane in the Oilers’ lineup for the weekend (and a nominal cap hit, presumably)? Yes please!

Randle McMurphy

I’m onboard.

Let’s not be penny wise pound foolish here OP

pts2pndr

Great saying but second only to skill in building a winning team is cap room to allow upgrades to the roster and the financial flexibility to do so optimally!

Brantford Boy

Relax chaps… I got my Oilers orange jersey back from Edmonton on Friday in time for HNIC. The Gretzky jersey didn’t cut it against the Panthers, a game they should have one at the end of long losing streak. The McDavid away jersey is magic. We have balance on the rack again!

Looking at the line stats… 95.4 xGF%, I won’t ask if this is correct, but oh my, has this number ever been posted before, like ever?

Jethro Tull

LT what’s the RE for E. Kane for the rest of the season?

I feel a little brake pumping is in order. Can he outscore bad goaltending?

Munny 2.0

He doesn’t have to. The team does. And, as the last couple of games have shown, it’s more mediocre than bad.

winchester

Offensively when the Oilers turn on the switch they can absolutely dominate. Maybe even another tool available if Kane arrives.

But its hard to have that domination for 60 minutes and at some point you need to defend. We know this. The coaches know this.

If you have a star Goalie though it will be okay. (we don’t)
If you have awesome top 4 D men you can compensate (Nurse is awesome, rest are good)
If your coach dictates and demands style of defensive play it will be okay. (nope)

At least one of these things must change. If two out of three things change, Im a putting some money down to go a long way. .

Cassandra

It is interesting to me that people insist on the narrative that the Oilers are a dominant offensive team, and that hence the problem is defense.

It’s not true. The Oilers have a problem scoring goals at even strength. That’s a fact.

Consider:

The Oilers have scored 29 goals with McDavid on the ice 5on5.
The Predators have scored 29 goals with Granlund on the ice 5on5.
The Devils have scored 29 goals with Bratt on the ice 5on5.

Considering their talent, the Oilers don’t score enough goals. Nowhere near enough. Some of this is bad shooting luck, I believe, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Oilers need to score more goals. They need more goals from their bottom lines, but they also need more goals from their top lines.

They are 22nd in the league in goals for at 5on5. That’s a massive problem.
They are 24th in the league in goals allowed. And that is with terrible goaltending.

Goals against is a personel problem, but the goals for is a style problem. If anything this team needs to focus more on offense.

cowboy bill

How about focusing on both .

ArmchairGM

Hold on, it’s coming.

knighttown

I agree with this. This is what LmHF has been saying for ages. This team is constructed to win games with offence but the only focus is on team defense. I do think it needed to be corrected but now that it has (besides goalering) we’ve got to come up with some systems that generate more offence.

winchester

You are purposely splitting hairs here. The Oilers as constructed are absolutely an offensive team. The possession time, offensive zone time, offensive defensemen, Power play, the sheer upper end talent. Like I said – when they turn it on. This is a fact.

Goals are an output of all this offense and you are suggesting its not enough. Sure score more win more. Stop more ad win more. You cant separate these, but please Oilers are an offensive talented team. You want balance? Spend your $ on goalie and d-men.

I have posted numerous times on the lack of an inside game. They gain the zone and all take positions along the boards it seems, cycle it around for the low danger point shot. Opposition gives them the outside, they take it. So style yes.

But poor goaltending, chasing games , lack of confidence, these all affect scoring as well.

If you had only 1 dollar to send, are you going to spend it improving the offensive forwards, or are you going to spend it on defence – in order to stop the puck and get it back up to the offense?

dustrock

Draisaitl’s Long Decembers are so consistent I wonder if he suffers from Seasonal Affective Disorder. No snark.

TheTikk

He definitely shows signs of the Periodically Irritable Sniper Slump Yips.

Last edited 2 years ago by TheTikk
John Chambers

I don’t think it’s just Leon, I’ve thought for years that the Oilers as a whole are affected by the lack of sunlight in December, and they typically nosedive a few weeks on either side of the solstice.

Edmonton is further North than any other NHL city by a wide margin. I can’t see how the players would be immune, and even if it affected their energy levels moderately, it would be enough to take impact them competitively.

Durag

Replacing the lights in the Oilers dressing room with UV lights could be the best management decision since Hank Scorpio installed business hammocks for his employees.

Randle McMurphy

There’s got to be a Ted Lasso joke in there somewhere

Randle McMurphy

But not Jesse. He’s grinnin ear to ear year round, cause he’s from the great white north Scandinavian style.

Randle McMurphy

SAD is real, and for some it’s (un) spectacular.

#NotFun

Neumann

Having lived in both Edmonton and Vancouver… SAD is a real thing in Vancouver. We don’t see the sun for the better part of 3months here. That first Sunny day in March is like a party in the streets.

Material Elvis

They also happen to coincide with the goaltending going into the ditch.

Harpers Hair

Patrick Allvin to be announced as Canucks GM in half an hour.

https://news.yahoo.com/canucks-hire-patrik-allvin-next-160022075.html

Jethro Tull

What abot Simon and Theodor?

Randle McMurphy

oooooooh….. I should have stayed home from work….

haha