Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ return to the lineup was good news for Edmonton. At five-on-five against Van City, the team was 1-0 goals, 9-4 shots and 94 percent expected goals with RNH on the ice. He had an assist, two shots, two high-danger chances and created two rebounds. He was skating well, starts and stops and always near the puck.
On the power play, he had a shot, another HDSC, and Edmonton won the shot share 8-2 (a SH goal by Vancouver was a downer). On the penalty kill, he played a clean 58 seconds. Edmonton missed him, RNH’s utility is across the board and exceptional. How much could that impact the lineup in the days to come?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Grading the first 3 years of Ken Holland’s Oilers trades
- DNB: Adam Cracknell is now a Canadian Olympian.
- Lowetide: Leon Draisaitl’s history of long Decembers and what came after
- Lowetide: Three first-shot scorers in Oilers system in a race to make NHL
- DNB: Dylan Holloway resumes road to Oilers after frustrating injury interruption
- Jonathan Willis: Loss underlines how over-reliant Oilers are on offence from the defence
- Lowetide: Making the waiver call on young Oilers players as the deadline approaches
- New DNB: Oilers’ flaws can’t be ignored as losing skid goes from bad to worse
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- DNB: Connor McDavid supports Oilers’ pursuit of Evander Kane.
- DNB: Ken Holland speaks
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: NYI, NYR, TOR (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-2-1)
- At home to: OTT, FLA, CGY (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MTL, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 4-5-1, 9 points in 10 games
- Actual January results: 2-4-1, 5 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 20-16-2, 42 points in 38 games
My predictions line up with the January run now, meaning a loss and two road wins gets Edmonton to 4-5-1 as predicted. A win tonight and we can talk about third place in the Pacific Division as a reachable target, maybe more if there’s another 15-5-0 run.
OILERS FORWARDS, BY POSITION (FIVE-ON-FIVE PER 60)
These aren’t lines, rather rankings of five-on-five points-per-60. There’s a good chance we’ll be talking Evander Kane for the next 24 hours, and it brings up some interesting possibilities. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could move to center, but the No. 3 line just doesn’t play that much. So, I think the better plan is to run the six best roster forwards on the top two lines.
- Evander Kane-Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman
- Ryan Nugent Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl-Jesse Puljujarvi
- Warren Foegele-Ryan McLeod-Kailer Yamamoto
- Brendan Perlini-Derek Ryan-Colton Sceviour
If Hyman has to play LW, you can move Nuge to No. 3 center but he won’t play enough to warrant the cap hit. The weak link among the six names on the top two lines? Interesting question.
- Evander Kane-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi
- Zach Hyman-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto
- Ryan McLeod-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Warren Foegele
- Brendan Perlini-Derek Ryan-Colton Sceviour
OILERS DEFENSE (EXPECTED GOALS) AND GOALIES (FIVE-ON-FIVE SP)
The top two pairings are solid to almost there in expected goals, I wonder if we eventually see Nurse-Barrie, Keith-Bouchard and Russell-Ceci. Edmonton needs something here, my preference would be a No. 2 LHD but that’s going to cost at the deadline.
I don’t like to use Puck IQ’s “elites” information heavily before 200 minutes are played, but Keith and Ceci are getting there and the numbers suggest fewer minutes against the league’s best would benefit all involved. Keith is at 171 minutes, Ceci 190, so we have the umpire warming up in the back ready to make the call.
Nurse has a splendid number, although you can’t find an encouraging word about him. Nurse actually has a better DFF% away from McDavid this year, but it’s a small sample (86 minutes). Still, trending well.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We have a great show planned and there could be ‘breaking news’ between 10 and noon, you never know! At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll tee up the Oilers-Preds with Chris Johnston, TSN Insider who will have the latest on Evander Kane’s destination. We’ll also have Crossfire! (Al versus Sal!) and talk plenty of soccer (Canadian men playing in a qualifier today in WC qualifying against Honduras). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: Have Oilers trade assets changed in light of the Evander Kane signing?
https://theathletic.com/3095450/2022/01/28/lowetide-have-oilers-trade-assets-changed-in-light-of-the-evander-kane-signing/
The other thing I want to say about tonight before I go have too much to dream, is puck management. It was probably the best of the year tonight and under tight checking too. Other than Boosh’s cross-icer and a couple a bad pinches (and you will always lose a couple of those, I chalk that up to rates), I can’t think of any high risk plays with the puck. A few times times they didn’t get it deep (you never get them all) but they followed the puck and backed up the play.
When Nash went full trap in the 3rd we came back and were ultra-patient; made lots of passes just to get over center.
It was good to see that care and I haven’t seen a lot of it this year. But it has been better of late. Hope it continues.
I believe in the post-game tonight, Tippett (I think), said that Kane has been training with his dad at 6am every morning (since the Sharks cut him loose).
I just watched his TSN interview and it was very good. Amazing when you see the false narrative being thrown out there and how he is being unfairly targeted in certain situations. Jeff O’Neill is an asshole and I wouldn’t blame Evander for wanting to punch his lights out. Now I actually feel like cheering for him.
I can’t think a better way to sum up Jeff O’Neill in three words or less.
Look out on the ocean, HH. The ship, she has sailed.
Seriously?
Why do you think you have to inform this community of NHL things? Do we REALLY strike you as the most ill-informed hockey community on the internet?
I just don’t understand why you continually do this to yourself. It is frankly quite sad, really. Honestly.
That’s not the bother, it’s the troll jobs he’s so good at.
Points in last 3 games
Oilers – 6
Look at that, if I choose a random number I can make the stats support my narrative too!
Anyways, long way to go, but they’ve looked a lot better since the first period in Florida. It’d be nice to really paste one of Ottawa or Montreal to add a little swagger to the growing confidence.
Whatever gets your rocks off, dude. Apparently.
HOLD ON. IT’S COMING.
This is turning into the Kane press conference
500 comments.
That’s a good day for you.
😂
Mikko Koskinen is one mentally tough dude.
Something in his game has changed. He’s battling longer/stronger than he was in the past. More athletic.
Remember when Tipp called him out, he fired back with something about the team needing to score some goals.
Confidence and Anger? A kind of F#ck You attitude?
Whatever it is, I hope it’s sustainable.
Skinner on Saturday.
Lets hope he’s found his next level. Let’s hope he never brings it back to Edmonton once they send him packing.
Mikko was awful tonight. Just watching the way Saros plays the game – so much more composed, way fewer rebounds- is such a stark difference. We’re lucky they only scored two. I feel bad for Mikko because he’s been put in an untenable position, but nothing in his game inspires any confidence. He made some good saves, but he is continually out of position.
I take it you missed OT and the shoot-out.
Yes, Koskinnen made a good save against Duchene in the opening 30 seconds of overtime. He made one more save later in OT that was unremarkable. I would say about two thirds of the OT was spent in Nashville’s end of the ice.
In the shootout, McDavid scored a goal that I think we can all agree was super worldly – a play no goalie could stop.
If you can, rewatch the shootout. The play Drai made and Josi made were almost identical. Both goalies made the save. But Saros played it perfectly for an easy save. Koskinnen was clearly beaten, but he got lucky because Josi shot it into his pad, despite having time to flip it up
and over.
I don’t think anyone could credibly argue Koski > Saros.
But this night, they were on par, and the Oilers’ skill advantage prevailed.
Saros is small and has to spread to cover the net – hence the two 5-hole goals. Good scouting Oilers.
Adam Larsson scored the OT winner against the Pens tonight. Adam Larsson. In overtime.
Maybe there is a god.
Has to make you think.
I was thinking earlier tonight for some reason about that old Tippett quote.
Looked it up: “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.”
“Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”
I think it’s fair to say the Oilers indeed have moved in that direction since Tippett/Holland arrived. Some defense has been sacrificed for puck moving on the back end.
For better or worse.
There is no doubt they have moved that direction. They have gone with unicorns on defence and I’m surprised no one’s talking about it.
Yeah. I guess it is being talked about, just not in a good way.
True. And I’ve been pining for some beef tenderizer too. But, y’know, we never wanted all four lines to be fancy-dans–RIP Pat–so why all defencemen?
Agree that would be nice. And fair enough.
Jeff Marek reporting that as many as ten teams were interested in Kane, including the Flames at one point, but that Ken Holland was in early and very aggressive.
I’m just glad he wasn’t napping.
I resemble that remark. 🙂
Don’t talk shit about naps.
More like Connor and Leon zooming up his worth these next 40ish games which might pot him 20-25 million Benjamin’s on his next contract.
I think that Hollands relationship with Kanes agent was key. Then McDrai.
Left field #3: Kassian getting his shit together in Edmonton.
I’m sure Holland told him top 6 with Connor and Leon PP Pk time. Whatever you think of Kane once a gambler always a gambler and he’s wagering he has the best odds to rack up goals with the Oil.
I don’t think Benjamin’s means what you think it means.
You know a Benjamin is a 100 dollar us bill right?
Big physical team they took on tonight and held their own. They still need more physicality in the lineup–and Kane will help huge–but some gumption shown tonight.
97 really stood out for me for his physical play tonight actually. His game has really come along way in that regard. Two key hits, one at the end of the third and one in OT.
Guessing they will need a few ice bags tonight. Preds are big and finish every check. We could really use another big, physical D man.
Why aren’t Oilers fans in the building louder when the refs miss a call?
They miss so many the fans would loose their voices?
The building is half full and the fans are sober?
The League has them muted to “improve the viewing experience”.
/icke
The are not on “mute” the setting is labelled “muffled” 😀😀
Oilers played a really strong game tonight. If they bring that effort every night they are a playoff team. Would be nice to get Barrie back so Cowboy can go back to 3LD. How long can Mikko keep this level of play up????? Skinner against the Habs??
3 game winning streak having been scored on 1st in each tilt.
Whichever Gord has it set to master difficulty should take a breather.
Mikko for Premier!
When is the vote?!?!
Would legit take foreign pro athlete w no experience and questionable loyalties over the incumbent.
What a game! So happy for Mikko. He needed a win like this after all the crap he’s had to hear. I hope it gives him confidence going forward! McHolyCrapDavid that was so fast I nearly missed it! lol
Lots to like in this game. Mainly the effort from top to bottom. No passenger tonight. Man oh man if this is how we’re gonna play it’s gonna be a hellova ride to the playoffs!!!
Three in a Row, Baby!!! I Want More!!!
The BIG Finn outbattles the Little Finn
Not one of the NSH shooters tried to go high glove on Mikko. Some kind of reverse-reverse psychology?
Mikko was taking that side of the net away big time.
Mikko on a winning streak
Dude is STILL 15-8-1.
Tied with Markstrom for 12th in wins.
Ya, it’s crazy we just don’t know which Mikko is gonna show up. Nites like tonight you might be thinking this guy is really good, then he has a couple of stinkers and we come back to earth. He’s a pretty good back-up when rested, but we all know we need a #1.
899%
If he win 2 for every loss does that matter?
ok. who had Koski for the shootout shutout against Saros?
I actually think he usually shines in the shootout. I should look it up but I’m not gonna. Something something European goalies something. There.
McDavid, wow … just wow.
Last player that came close to that kind of stick handling quickness for a goal was Rick Nash.
That’s a big win!
Connor McDavid.
100% fast twitch.
Gotta give Koski first star
They give it to that guy who’s been shaving since he was two.
I would have gone Saros, McDavid, Koskinen. Honourable mention to Jeannot and Bouch.
Yeah. I’d flip the goalies because weekday regional TV but agreed.
Hooray for Mikko
That is a hell of a big win!!
GO OIL!!
Atta boy Mikko.
Wow Connor!
Mikko for the well deserved OT win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
97 filthy.
Duschene wouldn’t have counted. Cant stop the puck dead
Agreed that was a full stop
Holy Crap!!! MIKKO!!!
LoL, his glove went the wrong goddamn way!
Unreal a player can make a top end goalie look like that
Phantom puck
2 big saves by Koskinen… Enough?
It’s a start. He played well tonight. Other nights he hasn’t.
That looked like it might be the A move
Beauty move by McDavid.
Just filthy.
Holy crap!!!!
McFilth.
McHipDislocation!
No Boosh on the 3×3?
Where is Turris????
Good so far!
Nashville scoring with 4 on the ice would be so NHL. On to the shootout!
Shoot out. Saros vs Koski. hmmmm
Where’s Turris when you need him…
….said no one for at least 6-7 years.
Thanks for the call with 3 sec left stripes. Would have preferred the previous 2 penalties be called
Call a timeout…
Don’t shoot low blocker on Koskinen.
My lord what hockeying
Wow what action!!!!
So love the new OT look
Way better!
it’s really cool the nhl employs referees from the CNIB
We played conservative and waited for the other team to make a mistake. I’m ok with that. Good work fellas. Now to put on a show in OT!!!