Stuart Skinner spent his weekend playing AHL hockey with the Bakersfield Condors, winning twice and stopping 61 of 65 shots (.938 SP). He hasn’t played enough to qualify in the save percentage category (11 games), but his total this season (.928) would be No. 3 among AHL starters this season.
Skinner isn’t a lock for recall, Mike Smith is reportedly ready and there is no taxi squad after the break. I’d recall him, running three goalies, seven defensemen and 13 forwards. Smith is 40 later this month, and has had a devil of a time staying healthy. What should Edmonton’s roster look like coming out of the break?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Four RH defence prospects looking to impress while pushing for the NHL.
- New DNB: Why Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault is ‘a player that everybody wants to play with’
- Lowetide: Do the Oilers finally have three strong outscoring lines?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ bizarre January ended on a high note
- DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman is compelled to speak up about antisemitism when he sees it
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice to take Kailer Yamamoto in 2017 NHL Draft
- DNB: Evander Kane’s presence was felt in his Oilers debut
- Lowetide: Why prospects stall in the AHL
- DNB: Oilers leaders believe Evander Kane will buy in
- Lowetide: Have Oilers trade assets changed in light of the Evander Kane signing?
- Lowetide: Grading the first 3 years of Ken Holland’s Oilers trades
- DNB: Adam Cracknell is now a Canadian Olympian.
- Lowetide: Leon Draisaitl’s history of long Decembers and what came after
- Lowetide: Three first-shot scorers in Oilers system in a race to make NHL
- DNB: Dylan Holloway resumes road to Oilers after frustrating injury interruption
- New DNB: Oilers’ flaws can’t be ignored as losing skid goes from bad to worse
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
SUGGESTED OILERS ROSTER OUT OF THE BREAK
- Goalies (3): Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner
- Left Defense (4): Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, William Lagesson, Kris Russell
- Right Defense (3): Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci, Tyson Barrie
- Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan McLeod, Derek Ryan
- Left Wing (4): Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Tyler Benson
- Right Wing (4): Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, Brendan Perlini
That leaves Devin Shore and Kyle Turris heading to the minors and coach Tippett will want Shore for his penalty kill. So, Skinner is staying in Bakersfield if Smith is healthy enough to play, and I expect Turris will be optioned to the Condors.
- Goalies (2): Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen
- Left Defense (4): Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, William Lagesson, Kris Russell
- Right Defense (3): Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci, Tyson Barrie
- Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Devin Shore, Derek Ryan
- Left Wing (5): Evander Kane, Ryan McLeod, Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Tyler Benson
- Right Wing (4): Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, Brendan Perlini
If the club did flush Shore and Turris a line of Foegele-McLeod-Benson would be fun. You know, Craig MacTavish ran with a youthful fourth line (Michel Riesen-Brian Swanson-Daniel Cleary) back in 2000, and that 12-game stretch catapulted Cleary to an NHL career. Perhaps it can do the same for Benson.
Mr. Panchyshyn has a fascinating tweet thread that goes back to the turn of the century and uses NHLE versus actual points and finds there is absolutely a connection. Matthew’s conclusion is that the Oilers are in fact drafting quality now, and there are some other points along the way to observe (I think Rob Schremp should have been given more of a shot, as a for instance).
One thing I’ll say about living through that period, as opposed to looking back. When you include ALL the prospects in a system, there’s a lot of noise. You don’t know what you don’t know, so even though you can observe things (I knew Kyle Brodziak was about equal to Marc Pouliot offensively on their draft day) you’re still at the mercy of things like draft pedigree (teams always give their first-round picks more chances) and there’s plenty of unknown flotsam that looks as good as the gold in real time. Here’s an example:
TOP 20 PROSPECTS, SUMMER 2003
So, when Guy Flaming and I made our lists that year, we didn’t know the severity of Jesse Niinimaki’s injury, or that Lorne Davis was right (he trumpeted the Kyle Brodziak selection a summer before Edmonton made the move). Looking back, you’d change your list just as scouts would change their own with more knowledge. In real time it’s damned difficult to identify the men who will shoot the gap from the second round plus until after draft day when the resume gets filled in. I’m still surprised these years later Jani Rita didn’t make it.
Any road, yes these young men who are impressing outside pro hockey all look like gems from here. I just want to let you know there’s a Jani Rita and a Doug Lynch in there, too.
NEW for The Athletic: Hard-target search to address Oilers roster needs before trade deadline
https://theathletic.com/3114518/2022/02/07/lowetide-hard-target-search-to-address-oilers-roster-needs-before-trade-deadline/
Chicago Blackhawks
@NHLBlackhawks
·
2h
Today, we interviewed Peter Chiarelli for our GM position.
More updates to come as future interviews are completed.
We’re all pulling for you Pete! Go Pete!
And thanks again for the great reminder that going to Harvard doesn’t mean you’re even half-way intelligent!
No Asian Americans were harmed in the filming of this episode 🙂
He played hockey at Harvard – he got his law degree in Ottawa.
You know full well I’m aware of this. And didn’t say anything about Harvard Law.
Why bother? Seriously.
How are I supposed to know what you are aware of?
Post didn’t imply knowledge of this.
He didn’t just play hockey at Harvard. He also got an undergraduate degree. No one here said he got his law degree there.
Please let this happen!
I read somewhere that they also interviewed Tulsky.
Ty Tullio becomes Tie Tullio as his 19th goal of the season ties the game at 1 in the third.
https://twitter.com/Oshawa_Generals/status/1490490643461853191?cxt=HHwWjsCyifzVpK8pAAAA
He puts the game away with an empty-netter for his 2nd goal of the game and 20th of the season. Named the game’s 1st star.
With the return of Mike Smith -all boding well as he puts games under his belt. Does this spell the dominoes for Holland?
Credit where it’s due- I’ve read of a possible armchair trade scenario between the Oilers And Jersey- with Bernier out and Blackwood playing himself out of the fray- could we see:
Koskinen + Benson/Marody For Adam Graves
Money In – Money Out
While that will open up the budget in the goaltending department, it fills the defensive LD #2/3 that will also boost the defensive Corp.
Using assets like Kass/Benson/Dprospects/picks
you then find:
-Ullmark: on the outside looking in at swayman/rask
-Husso: it’s binningtons or his, and the money leaves him on the outside with a blue team that seeks a new Rodman
-Vanecek: a formidable tender that needs more minutes behind Samsonov
-etc.
LT there are other rugged LHD out there, how many that could legitimately work?
Adam Graves?
More valuable veteran presence in the room
Yes, I read that pice re: Graves from The Hockey Writers.
Interesting thought but I’m not sure I want that cap commitment for next season….
I think that Holland has looked hard at improving the tending for the short term but the options are either (a) not good or (b) to expensive either via assets out or cap commitments (or both).
I think, at this point, Holland really wants to see what things look like with Smith back starting Tuesday and if he can stay healthy and regain last year’s for while splitting a 2-1 games load with Mikko.
If that doesn’t work out, there should be more options as the deadline approaches (i.e. Holtby assuming Dallas fall out, for example).
Ryan Graves. Man, I was actually googling adam graves to see who this other adam graves was, and just could not find him… All I could find was the adam graves of old.
What are the chances NJ gives up Ryan Graves for Koskinen + Benson though? I’d guess somewhere between “slim” and “none”.
The Six Nations rugby series started yesterday (it can be seen on DAZN). England played Scotland for the Calcutta Cup, first awarded in 1879, where England holds an alltime edge over Scotland 71-41 with 16 draw between them. I have written about how good the officials are in World Rugby and it was on display again during this match. Three examples from the final 15mins of the game.
In the 65th minute England was up 17-10 and Scotland was in possession of the ball in the England 22. The Scots put in a cross field kick to their winger and it was looking like it would be a sure try in the corner. The English winger went up to make a play on the ball and while he was in the air he realised he wasn’t going to be able to catch the ball so he batted it out of bounds. The ref and the touch judge immediately met to discuss whether the ball was intentionally knocked forwards out of bounds. At the same time the television match official (TMO) was communicating with both on field officials that he would have video replay on the screen in moments. After a quick review it was clear the English player had committed the foul (knocking the ball forward intentionally is deemed a serious offence as it threatens the integrity of the game – passing the ball backwards) and the Scots were awarded a penalty try and the English player was given a yellow card (10minutes in the sin bin and England plays down a man).
The score is now 17-17 with 15mins to go. Scotland marches the ball into England territory and is awarded a penalty and they take a shot at goal. The ball goes over and Scotland is up 20-17 now. England is to kick the ball off from half to restart the game and they launch a high ball to the sideline. The English chaser comes steaming down the wing and jumps to make a play on the ball, it grazes his fingers, goes forward and hits a Scottish player before going out of bounds. The touch judge awards the lineout to England, it happened very fast. The referee ran up to the spot of the lineout and while he was running he announced to all the players that he wants to have a quick look to make sure they got it right. Mere seconds go by and it is confirmed the touch judge made an error and in fact the English player accidentally knocked the ball on in the air and a scrum is awarded to Scotland.
In the final minutes Scotland is maintaining possession and gaining territory, they have all the momentum, first home game against their rivals since COVID began and they had an extra man for 10mins. England is on the backfoot and commits a penalty right in front of the posts. Leaving Scotland an easy shot at goal and basically sealing the win. Within seconds the referee is alerted that there is potential foul play with a neck roll at a previous breakdown (think board battle). The TMO puts the replay up on the screen for the on field officials to review and the Scottish player attempting to clear the English player from the ruck grabbed him by the neck and twisted him over. At one point in time this was pretty standard play in rugby but World Rugby is taking head injuries very seriously (the Scottish scrumhalf was sent off by the independent reviewer in the first half for a Head Injury Assessment – his replacement came on for 10mins to earn his first international CAP and scored a try – it was awesome) and has pretty much eliminated it from the game. The penalty was overturned and awarded to England. They weren’t able to take advantage and lost the game 20-17.
It was a great example of officials using all the tools and systems they have at their disposal to ensure they got the call right on the field. No game management. Get it right no matter the score. No matter the time in the game.
Great post.
NFL is the exact same. Scoring plays are constantly overturned (or given a second chance on) for something a “hockey man” would call ticky-tack.
Basketball, no question.
Even golf, Dustin Johnson lost a major based on an official making a correct (if annoying) rules call.
There are probably less than 100 people on the planet who feel NHL playoffs should be a chance for guys to “play through it” but unfortunately all 100 work for NHL offices, teams or MSM.
The N.F.L games are 31/2 Hrs long with reviews taking upwards of 5 min. N.B.A is a disgrace they don’t even play defence anymore if they breathe on each other its a foul and possibly a fragrant 1or 2 bullshit foul . You want to watch B-Ball go back and watch the Pistons, Knicks and Bulls 35 years ago.
3 and 1/2 hours of must watch television. And don’t take my word for it, have a look at the ratings. Chiefs/Bills was billed as Maholmes/Allen not much different than a HNIC of McDavid vs Mathews.
Except in football the insane amount of hype is somehow eclipsed by performances that have both players considered potential GOATs when all is said and done.
McDavid/Matthews matchup is far more likely to end as Alex Kerfoot and TJ Brodie chase around McDavid all night limiting his touches and David Kampf bounces one in on a pass from the side boards for the game winner.
The NHL has two paths and it’s choosing (like baseball) to stand with old guys like you who like it the way it was in the 70s.
Rugby does reffing best. Soccer also has a lot to learn from them. I think a key thing is that the tmo red makes the decision/recommendation and not the middle ref. It’s like having a third party. Also handy that they can basically look at anything – seven things that happened way back in the play.
I also love how absolutely no one other than the captain talks to the ref.
The communication is what makes the difference. Ref is constantly speaking with the players and when it come to important decisions the ref only speaks to the captains.
Watching the Ireland v Wales game now and there was a big collision between two players chasing down a chip kick. The Welsh player got the best of the Irish. It was borderline playing the man without the ball in real-time. The ref pulled the captains together and they watched the replay the TMO provided. After 2-3 angles at real time and slowed down speed the ref came to the (correct) decision that the Welsh player wasn’t making an attempt on the ball and took the man out. Yellow card and 10mins in the bin. Ireland scored right after. Real consequences for foul play.
Fantastic post!
I’ve always felt that hockey takes the lazy way out. If the decided to enforce the rules, players would adjust. They need to either follow the rule book or throw it out. The schizophrenic rule enforcement is so shameful and a disgrace to the game and an insult to players and fans.
I also think they need to go away from vulcanized rubber and switch to an ethyl-butyl rubber puck that doesn’t bounce stupidiy and doesn’t need to be cut open, cored out and epoxied after adding a tracking device.
I just want an equal playing field and consistency so it gives the game some semblance of credibility and puts more control in the hands of the players rather than the refs (many who have agendas).
As €√¥£€^$ pointed out in yesterday’s blog post, Quinnipiac has an unsigned goalie named Yaniv Perets.
Now, I don’t know if it’s the system Quinnipiac plays or if Perets is just that good, but he’s putting up silly numbers. If you go back into his history, he’s put up good numbers before–and even better ones in playoffs.
One would think that, being a teammate of Brind’Amour’s, Oilers scouts would have a pretty good book on Perets. A possible signee down the road? We wait.
I’ve always like what LT said.
A .952 save percentage in your front driveway would deserve at least a second look from the scouts.
So, no more testing of asymptomatic players which is great but, with that said, we aren’t quite out of the woods with Drai (and Smith and Mikko) as they don’t have recent positive tests so will still need to be tested to cross the border back and forth (for example, Leon will need to test to get back to Edmonton today)……
Slow day before the boys get back at it tomorrow – would be a good day to get some thoughts on the positions that:
1) 18 points in 15 games is a .633 points percentage
2) Guerin is so smart that he’s planning to trade the buyout cap hits even though that isn’t permitted
Won’t matter much.
Calgary should be .750 by the end of the month.
I agree their save percentage is going down and I do hope you are right that its going to fall to 0.750
Markstrom .923 2.20
Vladar .911 2.64
Koskinen .900 3.15
Smith .898 3.76
Skinner .908 2.85
I would suggest Calgary is not the team with a goaltending problem.
https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostNHL/status/1489387127716646913/photo/1
Also:
https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostNHL/status/1489386947437027330
Man-Games Lost NHL
@ManGamesLostNHL
·
Feb 3
NHL bottom 5 teams, man-games lost to injury and health protocols
CGY 57
TOR 97
MIN 99
DAL 111
NYR 118
https://mangameslost.com/nhl-man-games-lost-and-injury-metrics-february-3-2022/
Despite the above (and those man-games lost being the likes of Tyler Pitlick), the flames have the same amount of wins and losses as the Oilers – the 3 point gap solely as a result of three extra loser points.
Gotta wonder whether their strong goaltending holds too.
Markstrom’s career high .923 SV% has been fuelled almost entirely by his unsustainable Oct/Nov.
He’s been .907 since Dec. 1st and was .901 in 28 games under Sutter last year.
And Vladar looks fine, but Skinner has a very similar pedigree and trajectory except that he’s posting decent NHL numbers a year earlier.
Markstrom is now playing behind a button down defensive team that is 6th in the league in SA/G.
In his stint in Vancouver, the opposite was true.
Oilers are 10th worst.
Since Sutter was hired Flames and Oilers goalies have the following NHL SV%s:
Markstrom .914
Vladar .903
Smith .917
Skinner .908
Koskinen .901
You’re likely also aware that the Oilers are a better offensive team than the Flames.
The chances of injury going forward are exactly the same for both teams EXCEPT the Flames will not be subject to the exhaustion that comes from extensive travel which increases the risk of injury.
The Flames have already completed THREE Eastern road trips while the Oilers still have TWO to go including a trip through Death Valley at the end of the month.
The Knights, Kings and Flames all have much easier schedules going forward.
http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php
Tell us more about your Canucks!
Here is a bit more context regarding Skyler Brind’Amour and his team. Note this info is from a few weeks ago. I really like the idea of adding Wyatt Bongiovanni, but Vegas had him at their last 2 development camps, so they may have the inside edge (unless Stevie Y swoops in and convinces him to come back to his home state).
https://q30tv.com/sports/checking-in-with-quinnipiac-mens-ice-hockey-at-the-halfway-mark/
Brind’Amour could end up getting an AHL contract offer from the Condors coming out of college – similar to Deharnais.
Can’t imagine him getting offered an ELC.
Oilers are currently at 43 contracts + I count 8 UFA/RFA’s who likely won’t be returning.next season. I expect Skinner and Holloway or possibly Niemelainen to fill #6 LHD slot, so the number of additions will be low, possibly only 3, given the cap restraints.
Lets say they add 4 UFA’s, that leaves 11 slots. If they add both Russians and Savoie, they have enough room to sign Hamblin and Desharnais and BrindAmour, if they want to.
Holland isn’t tied to BrindAmour, but he is the #2 centre who plays hard defensive minutes on one of the best ever defensive teams in the 74 years of NCAA hockey history (they just broke the shutout record).
Unless he chooses not to sign, I think there’s a good chance.
@Post2PostShow
·
Feb 4
NEWS: I can’t wait until a video to share this one, it needs out now. I have confirmed with a concrete source that the Montreal Canadiens next Reverse Retro jersey is going to be Expos (former MLB team) themed. Take it to the bank. #GoHabsG
That is so totally awesom!!!
FWIW I think the NHL owned the NFL this weekend in their all star presentations.
The NHL recognizes these events for what they are, some fun for the fans, and puts some creativity into their skills drills. As a result, they get some entertaining viral clips like the Zegras spinarama and the visually beautiful Belaggio fountain competition.
The NFL’s all star product is extremely vanilla and frankly embarrassing. The game itself is glorified touch football. They literally can’t give away enough tickets for the Pro Bowl and with good reason. The richest league in NA could certainly learn a lesson or two here from their hockey competition.
I don’t watch football… But the NHL All-Star (Skills & Game) were both dreadful IMO.
Both were essentially a joke, nobody (other than the very rare outlier) even seemed to be attempting to put their All-Star level skill on display. just a bunch of low-effort gimmicky schtick meant to appeal to the LCD of NHL “fans”
But I’m also, admittedly, a grump.
Cheers.
I’d personally like to see the NHL go to a Rendezvous type event that would pit the previous season’s Stanley Cup champion against the KHL Champions. That would at least have the potential for a competitive contest with some bragging rights on the line. They could also do it as a 2 game home and home to give it a bit of a Summit Series vibe.
Of course the NHL will never do it because they don’t want to legitimize a competing league. That was one of the coolest things about the WHA. They were very open to those international ‘friendlies.’
As far as entertainment of the audience (TV or in person), these are for kids and families.
This isn’t meant to cater to “NHL fans” as you posit.
Fair enough… I saw LT post that too & said to myself “self, I think he’s likely right”
Everyone knows you need a kid line to go far in the play-off – I propose
Benson-McLeod-Holloway
For the draftniks… OHL is considering extending the season by two weeks, per the Battalion broadcast
Petrov sends a nice pass over to Coe on a two on one in the dying seconds of the 2nd but Coe overskates the play and can’t get to the pass. Would’ve had a wide open net but failed to hit the brakes at the crease.
Petrov steals a D to D pass, and sifts a pass through for his second assist of the game. Had a chance for another apple a few minutes later but the Battalion forward was unable to finish on a great look.
Sunday morning smile:
8 yo drumming to the song Led Zep wrote about cheering for the Oil…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91pz1E8pAOY
Don’t know what gets me more… the gleeful smile on the first fill, or playing in socks.
h/t Rob Tychkowski for the vid.
Note-perfect.
I’m impressed that an 8-year-old can match Bonham’s foot speed like that.
In socks! North Bay has popped the game wide open now
That was fun 😀
Thanks for the share, I didn’t know I needed that, mucho gracias!!
Amazing. Always thought great drumming was in the genes. Here’s the proof. Don’t mean a thing without the swing!
100% agreed.
Robert Plant agrees.
https://youtu.be/-XYr6H2mGxk
I don’t care what the neighbors say
You gotta love this each and every day
That kid can feel the beat within her heart.
#YOYOKA
Same kid is something to watch on other hits as well. Deep Purple Speed King, We’re an American Band, Bruno Mars Upton Funk, among others.
The women from the band Fanny have got to see this kid; It would bring them to tears.
The facial expressions alone are priceless.
#Legacy
Nirvana Smells Like Teen Spirit. She hits those cans hard and instinctively knows where the camera is and how to play to it.
Playing drums like that at 8 is impressive.
But when you can play Broadway at age four, you know you’re destined for greatness.
And sixty-some years later, he pounded out this incredible solo.
Buddy Rich is The Gord and as you know a massive influence on Bonzo too.
Here she is at four…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lP3BKeEe5wM
(So far I’ve seen her do YYZ, Kill the King, Bulls on Parade and Onyx, with I think a custom solo finish, plus a few other Zep. All blew me away)
The part on the sticks at the end of the solo was a very cool touch.
Yes it is.
I neglected to mention there’s another solo that begins at 5:10 in that same clip. This time, he plays the drums themselves rather than the hi-hat, cymbals, rims, etc. (The wind-down, wind-up snare roll near the end is fan-bloody-tastic.)
Petrov collects an aPPle to get North Bay on the board in period 1.
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi
McLeod Draisaitl Yamamoto
Hyman Nugent-Hopkins Foegele
Benson Ryan Perlini/Kassian
This is where I am at too. Puljujarvi adds elite puck retrieval to the McDavid line. McLeod adds a straight line and speed player to the Draisaitl line. And Foegele is the best remaining player for the Nuge line, but I could see Perlini there as well with Hyman moving to the Right side.
Tippett’s PK obsession should be satisfied by Nuge-Hyman, McLeod-Yamamoto and Ryan-Foegele. Add in Draisaitl taking the odd face off there is no need to play one dimensional players just to PK.
That is not enough for Draisaitl. McDavid has Kane. Nugent-Hopkins has Hyman. So Draisaitl should get Puljujarvi. So each has one of the three best wingers.
If one wants Puljujarvi with McDavid, then it should go
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Hyman
Foegele McLeod Yamamoto
I don’t know if that’s not enough for Leon.
In 400 minutes over the last two years, Leon/Kailer WITHOUT Nuge or McDavid are 17-12 goals which is actually much better than when Nuge is added to the line.
http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2022-04-29&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479977&p2=8477934&p3=8476454&p4=8478402&p5=0
I’m okay with this suggestion. Just looking at not fixing what isn’t broken. Nuge and Hyman we’re doing well together. Puljujarvi was not clicking with Drai but was good with McDavid and I’ve read Drai likes Yamamoto. Foegele was struggling with Drai and I think McLeod has a lot of potential to elevate his game. If McLeod clicks we’ve got three strong lines, worth a try.
The “Thin Goalie Strategy” – where Ken Holland has kept his powder dry and costs low, has relied on the Oilers playing competitively through the first two-thirds of the season before being able to upgrade Mikko.
It makes for a rough ride, and the inevitable pain of this strategy nearly sunk the team in December, but with some occasionally strong play from Koskinen it looks like it’ll weather the storm until a suitable in-season upgrade can be made.
Thing is, there’s a strong chance we see the same NEXT season with a Smith-Skinner tandem. What are the chances Skinner is able to bail Holland out and perform like a #1 NHL goalie this time next year?
I think that the Org has a better view of Skinner than we do. His confidence level, his mental toughness, his practice habits, his lifestyle (nutrition, etc.).
I would say this, if Skinner is not named a permanent part of the starters tandem in October, then we’ll have the answer to your question.
We cannot go with Smith again next year. May need to LTIR him or buy him out. Skinner and an upgrade on Koski if we cant land a big one.
I feel like Niemelainen would be the guy that would get the call, however, if the likes of Nurse got hurt again, we could see Broberg.
I think Sammy is waiting until September….
Thanks.
I don’t necessarily disagree but I don’t think there is any chance they run with 3 goalies. From accounts, Smith is ready and will be activated for Tuesday which will mean a Rodrigue re-assignment
I think Skinner stays in Bakersfield and Lagesson gets recalled – given he was dog-sledding and skiing a few days ago, I don’t think he even left the province.
Holland will want to see how the Smith/Koskinen tandem looks and if they can get in to a routine with Smith saying healthy. I’d like Skinner to get some more NHL reps but if Smith can provide .915 tending playing 2 out 3 games, Mikko is well-suited to playing 1 out of 3 games.
Two countries that intrigue me at the Winter Olympics.
Norway and Australia.
Norway because their “medals per capita” is off the charts.
And Australia, because…..well that continent is just one huge dessert with a large rock in the middle of it. I mean seriously, they ski on sand dunes there.
I thought they cancelled the Olympics.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it turns out Skinner is a fraud. He’s actually Armin Tamzarian.
Oh, well you’ve jumped the shark now..
lol… I will take your twenty year old reference and raise you another twenty years.
-Principal Skinner..?
-Up yours, children!
Does anyone actually watch the NHL All-Star Weekend?
It’s for kids. I loved it when I was young and kids love it now. It’s for young people.
Thank you for that. I was honestly wondering why the NHL was doing it the way they are dong it. I couldn’t get the tumblers to fall in line.
You’re explanation works.
#Click
its for kids, yes
Haven’t watched any type of sports “all star” games in years. Sport without passion and a little bit of hate is not real competition in my opinion.
Sure, fair enough, but, of course, the intent of the all-star game (and weekend) is not competition.
Tried this weekend for first time in a decade. Nope.
Tom Brady regarding Pro Bowls, “You think I play this shit to go to Pro Bowls?”
That sums up my opinion of All Star games.
“Impressing outside of pro hockey” = Diamonds in the rough.
NHLE can tell you the carat weight, but not the cut, color or clarity.
the cut, color and clarity can only be revealed by the refiners process.
Most of the best diamonds are collected and distributed out of Antwerp Belgium (ie the CHL)
And thank goodness Debeers (ie Sam Pollock) can no longer hold the market hostage. 🙂
The CHL lead over the USHL, US College hockey and European leagues at producing NHL players has been significantly narrowed over the last 20 years. Based on drafting over the last 5 years, I suspect if it hasn’t happened yet, it might not be long before less than 50% of NHL players have a CHL background.
Thinking about this got me wondering about the NCAA rules that prohibit CHL players from getting scholarships (or even playing in the NCAA). Savoie and Holloway, like a lot of players, stayed in the AJHL to maintain their US college eligibility. USHL players can also still go to college (USHL players get all their expenses covered including housing which is probably worth as much as a CHL player is compensated but the NCAA lets them in anyway on this loophole since it helps US hockey).
But now that the NCAA has started allowing its players to be compensated by outside parties, is there a path towards CHL players becoming NCAA eligible in the future? My gut tells me no, since that kind of change probably results in them possibly missing out on players like Holloway (or even bigger fish like Eichel).
NCAA, I believe, is around 30% of the NHL player base right now.
Modern Hockey:
https://bchl.ca/prospects-keyinfo
My unintentional omission of the all the other Tier 1 Canadian leagues that offer this same opportunity was probably because my example was focused on 2 recent Oiler examples. Had I got back further in time for my example, Justin Schultz was clearly one of many BCHL players that have gone this route.
So was Shawn Horcoff.
It might not even tell you carats all that accurately.
Depends how close the individual in question is to the parameters used to gather the data. NHLe is essentially argument by analogy, where the strength of the argument depends on how close the analogy is.
For eg Pujo in the A at 18. People used NHLe to estimate his offense (b/c bad math never stopped anyone ever lol) but there is no actual data for someone Pujo’s age playing that league. That’s not all that egregious, because odds are, being younger, he would out-perform the data. But obviously age is an important variable.
Can we use Malone’s scoring this year to estimate his NHLe?
Gabe’s original NHLE was age-based. Because of age’s impact on outcomes, I’m not sure why this isn’t being done today. Some day someone younger… with more time and energy than me will though.
Looking at the graph above… there’s little context up there as to what is going on, but it looks to me like NHLe typically over-estimates production. That might be because all age groups are going into one bin (I’m speculating at cause and there could be other causes, or more than one reason)
The other thing is that a good NHLe is not a guarantee of NHL work. So we have to be careful with it at the draft. There likely is an actual real-life Mendoza Line though and I’m surprised no one has calculated it. There’s probably actually two Mendozas and a mushy middle between the two lines.
AGREED. They need to carbon date the diamonds in the rough. 🙂
A classic example is the KHL. Taking the NHLe of up and coming players like Kaprizov and Panarin was reasonable regarding how they might do. But the NHLe of players approaching their late 20s or older in the KHL is not useful. Just this season, Corban Knight (31 yrs Old) is scoring an NHLe of 67 points in an 82 game schedule. He scored a total of 12 points in 52 NHL games over 4 seasons (3 different teams). He never was a bonafide NHL player and likely never will be, but sits 3rd in KHL scoring. Even a guy like Gusev had an NHLe of 87 points per 82 games at 27 before he came over and he managed only 54 points in his 97 game stab at the NHL before heading back. These are only 2 of many many examples where veteran NHLe in the KHL would not be reliable at all.
Those examples are perfect, thanks.
NHLe is really meaningless, in my opinion, unless its age-adjusted.
“If the club did flush Shore and Turris a line of Foegele-McLeod-Benson would be fun.”
Q: Do you wnat to have fun, or do you want to win?
A: I want to have fun winning.
Personally I’m just glad our “who should be the 12th forward” discussion centers on two players who both have some positives to their game.
So, you believe Shore is a better option than Benson? Perlini?
I think we have to sub -categorize the “better”. (these things are temporal; They change with time, and sometimes from week to week or month to month)
I think Shore is adding more value in the present.
Benson is more intriguing in terms of future upside.
What all 3 players are striving to achieve is consistency and reliability.
Each player is trying to carve out a role; that is, become a “role player”
Each player brings one trick (slight over-simplification). Benson is physical, Perlini can shoot, Shore can PK.
If Benson continues to adapt his game, he could surpass Shore in his utility as a role player..
I don’t see any of them having the potential to be top six players on a contending team
So as far as “next man up”, yes, I would choose Shore over the other 2 today. Have I given up on Benson? No.
Shore’s PK numbers this season are very poor. His 12.65 goals-against-per 60 ranks him No. 186 out of 194 forwards who have played 25 or more minutes in the discipline this season. He has played well of late at five-on-five (6-6 goals since December 1) so I do think he has a story to tell.
Thank you for that. I was being lazy on the PK numbers/rational. Probably based more on the fact that the other two don’t PK.
It really is his 5v5 goal differential (which you have well documented) that has been carrying sway with me this past month.
he seems “energized”
I think Benson and Shore will battle for TOI to the seasons end if they both get past the trade deadline.
Of course, it’s hockey, so other factors will probably decide it (ie health , roster adds at the deadline etc) which is part of the reason that Benson is the crowd favorite. He’s overcome a lot of adversity.
“Foegele-McLeod-Benson”
Does more closely resemble “Riesen-Swanson-Cleary” in the minds eye than do
“Foegele-McLeod-Shore”
But I can’t wait for the real “kid line” to arrive
Joe Murphy, Martin Gelinas, and Adam Graves.
Dylan Holloway-Ryan McLeod-Xavier Bourgault ??
But this is the problem with those tiny sample size PK numbers.
Shore also leads Oiler forwards with fewest shots and xGA/60. He’s 24th of those 194 forwards league wide in SA/60 and 13th in xGA/60 (3rd in SCA/60, 9th in HDCA/60).
I don’t think criticism of his PK ability or results is warranted (they were quite decent last year as well).
In any case, IMO this discussion is almost entirely about whether and how much undiscovered upside Benson has.
Based on his on ice play through training camp and TC, there’s really no reason to expect Benson to have gotten any better minutes/linemates than he’s gotten.
If you think there’s a decent possibility that he will show more than Shore if given those minutes/linemates, then you’d want him ahead. If you believe this is what he is, then he keeps battling exactly as he has been.
I personally feel a bit ambivalent on the answer. It’s definitely possible there’s more there, but not that sure of it.
piss-cutter
Bingo.
The Coach likes what Shore brings to the team. Every team has those Fringe players that make it and don’t make it because of Coaching. You of course know all of this but a lot of capable people get washed out of the N.H.L because of new G.M’s and Coaching changes.
In the last 15 games, Devon Shore is producing at 1.58 P/60 (1G/2A) and is 6-3 goals.
I am definitely not a big fan and, 4LW and his PK spot could be improved on, however, in recent times, Shore is earning his spot in the lineup.
6-3 goals over 15 games for an Oiler 4th liner? That is very good.
Starting in about 56 hours from now, it’s games every other day for a few of months.
If Mike Smith stays healthy, we’re adding a dman with hair on his ass, and/or a big bottom six winger…imo.
Craig Button is on the record as saying “If Holland doesn’t add a goalie, then he’s not doing his job”
The addition of the “whale” goalie at the cost of multiple picks and prospects WOULD COMPLETELY SHOCK ME.
I could use a jolt.
Wasn’t Craig Button the guy holding the reins when Martin St Louis walked away from the Flames?
Maybe doing the opposite of what he’d do if he were GM isn’t such a bad thing.
Seriously though, there is room for improvement with goaltending, but there’s room for improvement everywhere outside of 97 and 29. It is an efficiency contest. Improve goaltending if the price is right, otherwise address other problems.
Isn’t Craig Button the fella that sees Evan Bouchard and is like nope none for me.
Button’s bashing of Bouchard a few years ago was misleading and uncalled for. Button who was a Flames G.M and also his brother who still works for the Flames was trying to get a rise out of Oiler fans and worked with me anyhow.
“Prefered Roster Coming out of the Break.”
That is the right wing depth of a non-contending team.
should have read “non-cup-contending team”
that right side can get you into the playoffs.
I think the Oilers have the amateur drafting figured out wether it’s analytics or scouting ( seen him good ). Why is pro scouting such a crap shoot? There seems to be so much more data and visual available. Assuming the scouts check injury history and observe the player re skating the analytics points etc are all available. Is it more an age thing or a misinterpretation of the data?
Obviously the process has been shallow, and presumably based on rep or whatever tale the other GM spins Holland.
So what you are saying is the conversation starts, ( trading GM to Holland, “such a deal I have for you”! ). 😉
I’m still at loss to understand how it is completely normal/legit to carry 4 or even 5 LHD but not to carry 4 RHD.
Sup with that.
RHD are more scarce, therefore have trade value that is higher. I’m sure there have been examples but damned if I can think of one.
Further to that point about RHD being more scarce, in the NHL this season 242 D-men have played at least 10 games (approaching 8 per team) with 143 (slightly less than 5 per team) being left shot and 99 being right shot (just above 3 per team). The added effect of RHD being more scarce at all levels, is that few right shot defenseman have played the left side much at all, even during their development, but many LHD have played the right side. Having 4 LHD on the roster, gives the team a little extra coverage that at least one of them has some meaningful experience to cover on the right side if one of the RHD gets injured.
The Oilers did have Bouchard play the left side one game last season once Bear got healthy. Being a rookie D is challenging enough without having to play a side that he may not have played much even in Junior (hard to say if Bouchard and Boqvist, who is also a RHD, were ever paired at 5 on 5 in London, and if so, who would have played their offside). I think when Bouchard wasn’t playing last season, he spent most of it on the taxi-squad and not the 23 man roster, so that would not have been an example of the team carrying 4 RHD and only 3 LHD.
You might know this. Has there ever been a impactful Ambidextrous D-man to play in the modern league depending on the teams need at the given time.
Sorry, I can’t think of any. I believe Gordie Howe and Yvan Cournoyer may have switched hands for shots on a few occasions, if I am recalling correctly, but can’t think of any other examples. Maybe others know of some players who did this.
As I recall…Ethan Bear is a RHD.
Was his trade value higher than Holland received?
Holland is not good at negotiating deals or contracts for better players, at least for the Oilers
A young RHD with good fancies and having played a lot of top 4 minutes is a valuable player
Harder to come by and like all things supply and demand more cost involved would be my guess. There also seems to be a pronounced difference in left shot vs right shot players hence the dearth of right shot centres and wingers.
I get it now.
It’s like having 4 all -season radials and carrying a spare. (because they’re plentiful and cheaper)
and owning only 3 studded tires for winter driving. (because they’re costly and less common)
Seymour Buttz