Did you know that the Edmonton Oilers have produced one team that won the AHL championship? It was 1992-93, and the team boasted fantastic scorers up and down the lineup. The team scored 356 goals and allowed damn near as many, and by the end of the year the top players boasted some of the most eye-popping boxcars I’ve ever seen (well, since the 1980’s Oilers).
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Hard-target search to address Oilers roster needs before trade deadline
- Lowetide: Four RH defence prospects looking to impress while pushing for the NHL.
- DNB: Why Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault is ‘a player that everybody wants to play with’
- Lowetide: Do the Oilers finally have three strong outscoring lines?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ bizarre January ended on a high note
- DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman is compelled to speak up about antisemitism when he sees it
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice to take Kailer Yamamoto in 2017 NHL Draft
- DNB: Evander Kane’s presence was felt in his Oilers debut
- Lowetide: Why prospects stall in the AHL
- DNB: Oilers leaders believe Evander Kane will buy in
- Lowetide: Have Oilers trade assets changed in light of the Evander Kane signing?
- Lowetide: Grading the first 3 years of Ken Holland’s Oilers trades
- DNB: Adam Cracknell is now a Canadian Olympian.
- Lowetide: Leon Draisaitl’s history of long Decembers and what came after
- Lowetide: Three first-shot scorers in Oilers system in a race to make NHL
- DNB: Dylan Holloway resumes road to Oilers after frustrating injury interruption
- New DNB: Oilers’ flaws can’t be ignored as losing skid goes from bad to worse
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
1992-93 Cape Breton Oilers
Rice was a big piece coming over from the NY Rangers in the Mark Messier (spits) trade, Thornton came over in the Glenn Anderson-Grant Fuhr (spits) trade. Maltby played the longest, all of these names were highly productive as prospects. I still think Currie and McDougall deserved at least a legit shot at the NHL.
2021-22 Bakersfield Condors
Marody’s fate is likely to be far different than the one Van Allen enjoyed (750 NHL games after 1992-93), but Marody is a more naturally talented player. I hope some team gives him a chance when Marody hits free agency. James Hamblin is 22, I wonder if he gets an NHL deal.
Ryan McLeod has played half an NHL season in his career (41, 5-4-9) and I think we can see a 12-15 goal centre moving forward. That has value, in fact his terrific speed and two-way acumen could mean he solves a major roster problem (No. 3 center) in the days to come. If he gets enough playing time with Leon Draisaitl, expect that goal total to climb.
Dylan Holloway is going to make the NHL soon, he is shooting more (five shots on Saturday) but missed wildly on two 10-bell chances on the weekend. That’s to be expected as he works his way back into pre-injury shape. Much about his game is good, he turned over a puck in the defensive zone the other night, he was cheating a little anticipating the puck getting past the defender. It ended up in Bakersfield’s net. These are the lessons of youth, and as long as he learns them (he’s clearly a smart fellow) then the Oilers have a good one. Excellent passer, that part of his game is clearly at peak levels already.
Raphael Lavoie is scoring well now, he still doesn’t get cherry PP time (I see him on the second unit often) so the boxcars aren’t stuffed with empty calories. As a matter of fact, his 18 even-strength points rank him behind only Marody (21) and Griffith (20) on the current team. He’s coming along nicely.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’ll be a busy morning on the Lowdown, starting at 10, TSN1260. Jason Gregor will pop in to help set up the Oilers second half, Elks in free agency and the Super Bowl, and we’ll talk Olympic games (Canada won a pile of medals in the last 24 hours) including the Canadian women playing while wearing masks and kicked ass. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Arpon Basu
@ArponBasu
·
1h
Francois Legault announces Bell Centre can go to 50% capacity as of Feb 21.
Desbiens for Oilers goalie!
The USA v. Canada women’s Olympic hockey games are a more entertaining product than NHL games.
Agreed. Great effort and systems.
US will win gold when they play their bigger, better goalie.
It’s definitely an uptempo game played with urgency.
We’re fortunate to be up 4-2 so far.
Last year we watched Bear-Larsson and Barrie play every night there was no room to platoon Bouchard into the NHL games. In hindsight that was a mistake?
On the left side we watched Nurse play every NHL game with Jones Kulilov, Russell and Koekkoek platoon in and out of the line out.
This year I see Russell, Koekkoek and Lagesson almost the exact same dimensional player. One player from this left side needs to be dropped and add Niemelainen or Samurokov to change up the team.
This should be done now to ensure the player has a half and NHL season of games before the play-offs.
I don’t see the GM (or coach) looking to get less experienced on defence heading in to the stretch run and playoffs (hopefully).
Additional injuries will likely hit in the 2nd half and we’ll see some Broberg or Niemelainen, depending on need.
I think we can safely assume that the likely LD in October is:
Nurse
Keith
Broberg
No Oilers LD prospect is where Bouchard was last season. Bouchard was ready for NHL mins and wasn’t a liability when he did play. He should have played more last season but there isn’t the equivalent player this season.
Ethan Bear a healthy scratch tonight
He has been a few times this year
Matthews with his 30th.
And his 31st.
Thanks for the update.
How many goals does Joe Colborne have?
Petersson + Boeser ?
Brombert Rockbilly.
Panthers sign Guzda
Oilers should be looking hard at Perets
Found money
This is where the goalie coach should earn his salary
Is the kid getting himself in order and on a trajectory or does he have things that won’t work in the NHL that can’t be developed out?
Is he better than what they have?
Should be looking extra hard at Spencer Knight
Guzda is 6’5” and at 21 is one of the oldest players players in the OHL. Despite his winning record every year, this is first season over 0.900 save percentage. Looks like the Panthers might be a bit panicked with Knight, but he’ll be fine with a bit more time.
Perets has a much better chance at becoming an NHLer, than Guzda, IMO. But Florida has a pretty barren G prospect cupboard.
Meanwhile, Devon Levi is rocking a 0.948 save percentage in his freshman season.
I wish the Oilers were playing tonight. Suffering from withdrawal….and not the alcohol type.
Mikko officially placed in protocol so Skinner will be recalled, likely to start Wed.
Per Gregor.
As requested, the summary of Woody on with Bob (Oilers Now):
1) Two very good hockey games this past weekend – We got tested in a way he hadn’t been tested like in a few weeks. Friday night we played a good first period, found a way to score two and build a lead – their team pushed in the 2nd and Skinner was there for us. The third was evenly played with chances both ways and we ended up winning 4-1. Heading in to the Sat game, there was an element of physicality to that game, a playoff like feel. Both team had good moments – we found a way to stick with it and find the winning goal late. Two important wins. Nice to see different players step up for our team.
2) Bob talked about all the success in light of all the adversity – I think its a credit to the people in the locker room firstly – Holland and K. Gretzky have done a great job of bringing in good human beings and that’s where it starts. In training camp we try and do some things where our players compete against each other so that later they can compete for each other. That’s where we begin our playing towards an identity. Its built over time. With the adversity that we saw with games cancelled and Covid – that brings the team together. We’ve used 4 tenders in the last 6 weeks and they’ve all won games. There have been games where we’ve dressed 9 d-men in a game and found a way to win. Its mind-set, its an adherence to culture – there is an expectation of work-ethic and buy in but most of all I would point to the human beings that we have and specifically the leadership group that makes sure we play the game the right way.
3) Bob mentioned the “non-drafted players” such as Malone, Esposito, etc, and how they don’t take any proverbial crap, etc. – Yes, those two guys are lynchpins for us – they set the work ethic tone, they are emotional catalysts for us that bring people in to the fight. I look at a guy like James Hamblin who isn’t the biggest buy but he plays hard and he plays the game the right way and his toughness comes from winning foot races and playing inside guys’ equipment and stoping net front and getting pucks out on the wall. What we expect from everyone here is buy-in, adherence to how we want the team to play. We aren’t going to play the perfect game but when you come in to play the Condors you are going to be “in for one” and are going to get our best effort. I couldn’t be more proud of the people that are part of our team.
4) Holloway – I found him around the puck, in offensive chances. It didn’t go in for him but that’s just the type of hockey it was this weekend. I don’t just measure his game in offensive production – I think there are other parts of his game that we are continuing to work on with him. His skating is elite, we know that it. It comes down to details in his game, professional details and he’s giving a good effort. He’s very coachable. He continues to get better every day. Now its for real – he’s in the “every day schedule of the AHL” where you have to bring it every day. He’s in a good spot to continue to grow his game.
5) Lavoie and has something clicked? I think so – right around when the team started to take off in mid-December, Ralph’s game took off. We don’t talk about it enough but we’ve been on the road alot, 14 out of 17 games and when you are on the road that’s a way for the team to collectively come together but its a good opportunity for individual to narrow their focus and not having to worry about things off the ice. Can block the outside noise out and work on your game. Ralph has done yeoman’s work over the last 6 weeks. He’s going to hard areas, he’s paying the price for offensive production and we see growth in his game and its a credit to him for the work he’s put in.
6) Lots of shots in the first period – is this a point of emphasis (starting on time) and how much advanced analytics work is done at the AHL level – We talk alot about asserting our game plan on the other team – coming out of the gates fast to put the other team on their back foot. For me, we spend time talking about the strengths of the other team and we have to play towards our strengths and not get caught in the type of game the other team wants to play – the tactics that will help us in those situations.
In terms of analytics, they are an important part of the game and part of the future of the game. It important to pay attention to information and to not be afraid of it. We do alot of side-projects that not only pay attention to our players and our numbers but also trends that are happening in our league but also trends that are happening at the highest level – so we are trying to stay on top of that. The coaching staff puts in alot of hours and tries to find answers. We spend alot of time talking about the tactics that lead to good numbers, not the numbers as the end themselves. We see that as a piece of the puzzle, not the only part of the puzzle. Its information but we ensure to account for the stuff that isn’t as easy to measure, like the intangible stuff within the game. When you have a broad open mind and account for all these difference sources of information it helps you have a good perspective. We have good people within the org that provides us with some work and we do our own work as well and we think we cover lots of bases.
7) Bob brought up Manson and all the roles he played in NHL and then all the D prospects – Dave is a big part and would add that he was a two-time all star in the NHL so he has alot to offer with all his experience. He was a first round pick. He was an older player where he wasn’t in the lineup every night so he’s had those experiences at the highest level. That’s from his playing perspective. He doesn’t get enough credit for his coaching path – he paid the price along all the coaching steps along the way – started in minor hockey, many years in PA riding the buses and going to conventions. Made the transition to the AHL and he’s got a ton to offer. A huge part of our coaching staff. Also, can’t say enough about Colin Chalk, a new add to our staff, came from the Ottawa org. Sylvain Rodrigue spend a lot of time with our tenders and has a special relationship with Stuart Skinner and did alot of heavy lifting with Stuart early in his career. Our unsung hero on our staff is Noah Seagle – Noah is the guy I go to to help me with all those little projects – takes care of immigration and travel and is a fantastic video coach. Hugely respected by the players and is following in the footsteps of the guy he replaced who has made it to the NHL with the Leafs. As a coach, I’m a lucky man as I get to go to work with a group of people that I respect and learn from and they push me to be the best that I can be.
“riding the buses”. Drink.
Ok I’m in
Give Woody Manson and Gully the reigns next season. And a top goaler coach
With Manson the toughest coaching staff in the bigs
Ignore us now refs!
Why is Gully being retained?
Only PP
If it doesn’t get right then no
If he has anything to do with strategy also no
It isn’t right IMO
Thank you so much for typing all that out! Very much appreciated.
Every time I read these interviews (thanks op) I become more impressed with Woody.
Thanks OP.
I find the analytics talk to be completely underwhelming.
“We talk alot about asserting our game plan on the other team – coming out of the gates fast to put the other team on their back foot. For me, we spend time talking about the strengths of the other team and we have to play towards our strengths and not get caught in the type of game the other team wants to play – the tactics that will help us in those situations.” < that’s not analytics
“In terms of analytics, they are an important part of the game and part of the future of the game. It important to pay attention to information and to not be afraid of it.” < What kinds of information?
“We do alot of side-projects that not only pay attention to our players and our numbers but also trends that are happening in our league but also trends that are happening at the highest level – so we are trying to stay on top of that. The coaching staff puts in alot of hours and tries to find answers. We spend alot of time talking about the tactics that lead to good numbers, not the numbers as the end themselves.” < That sounds a lot like Ken Holland
” Its information but we ensure to account for the stuff that isn’t as easy to measure, like the intangible stuff within the game. ” < Ken Holland
“We have good people within the org that provides us with some work ” Who? What kind of work?
This ^ does not instill me with confidence.
to me, this is good. The coaches read the numbers to judge success, and next steps. Then they coach the players then if it was successful it should be seen in the numbers
We read it differently. I hope you way is the right one, but I don’t think so imo.
It would help if the host had asked to talk specific numbers. Analytics is a language. I don’t hear Woody speaking the language other than at a “rudimentary level”
Of course we hear this and we want to hope. I need more clarity.
Maybe he’s coaching his terms so as not to upset the boss?
Thanks for this, as always, much appreciated.
As I figured, Mikko tested positive on a rapid test this morning.
If its confirmed, Skinner will be recalled.
Oilers are back to back Tues/Wed so, if Mikko is indeed out for a few days, I would think Skinner will get the start on Wed.
Carpe diem, Stuart. It is go time.
Jesse Granger
@JesseGranger_
· 3h
Jack Eichel is officially out of the no-contact jersey.
He’s skating on a reserve line with Patrick and Amadio, wearing green.
I thought Kass would be moved back up to the 3rd line but I so don’t agree with him on the 2nd line – this HAS to be his last chance to make a positive impact on a consistent basis – there is no indication he can be that player.
That third line really is the 2nd line………
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
McLeod-Draisaitl-Kassian
Hyman-RNH-Puljujarvi
Foegele-Shore-Ryan
Perlini-Turris-Benson
Nurse-Bouchard
Keith-Ceci
Lagesson-Barrie
Smith
Wow that 3rd line is strong!
Opponents might actually be more worried about the “3rd” line than the “2nd”.
From worst 3rd line in the league… to top 8? That is ELITE! Go Tippett Go!
That third line is better than many of our top lines post Doug Weight.
I’d love to know what Foegele has done to not get a shot over Kassian. I haven’t seen anything change in his game from two weeks ago where he setup Leon I think for 2 assists.
His -12 goal differential at 5 on 5 could have something to do with it.
Also, the fact that he’s a LW (although, yes, I know, he’s played RW in the past).
Burns, side.
He earned them though.
OP mentioned the -12 at 5v5 for the season.
He’s also 2GF-6GA in his last 6 games (this in the midst of the Oilers scoring 17GF-9GA at 5v5 in the same stretch).
I feel I’d be remiss not to point out there are some indications.
Over the last 3 seasons Kassian has a 50.0% on ice goal differential (5v5). 6th of 16 forwards to play 500 minutes for the Oilers.
He’s also scored 1.78 P/60 over that span. 3rd of 16 Oiler forwards >500 minutes.
He may not be consistent, but very clearly has done some things that indicate he could be worth of playing on the Oilers 2nd line.
I was in high school in Cape Breton at the time and when I tell you Billy McDougall was a household name I’m not exaggerating. We don’t have an NHL team within 2000km and didn’t even have major junior at the time so it was like Gretzky was in town. And every morning Dad would open the paper to see Billy scored 5 again. Every damned night.
52 points in 16 games.
First year college at the time in Halifax. Made the 5hr trip numerous times to CB. Those were the good ole days. Went to alot of Halifax Citadels games also when i was younger. My neighbor was their stickboy. I still have a few gems my wife lets me keep in a closet lol. Sundin and Lafleur. Would love an NHL team here but that will never happen. I come from a mixed fan family. Been an Oilers fan since i was 6 or 7. Mom loved the Habs, Dad loved the Flames my brother loves the Bruins and my sister the Sens. We cant agree on anything!!
Jay Woodcroft on “the other channel” today,
was asked about “his” use of Analytics in Bakersfield.
His response was underwhelming. Disappointing really.
If OP posts the conversation, I’ll be curious to see how you all feel about the response
You have to have some way of gathering the data to use the data. Not sure if any team is spending the resources at that level. I would be curious to know though.
Also, since the program is about development first, and they can literally see the coaching moments before their very eyes and on film… not sure how much value counts or rates have at that level.
I would imagine that the teams that take analytics seriously apply them to minor league players as well since identifying stranded assets is a big part of the job.
And, with the trend to locate AHL teams closer to home, that job becomes much easier.
Here’s some evidence for you:
This is the LAK analytics team.
Vice President of Research and Development Ryan Kruse
‘Kruse joins the Kings after spending the past seven years with the Chicago Cubs where he held multiple roles with the organization. He most recently served as Director of Baseball Systems Development where he led a team of software engineers and delivered several custom products built for the enhancement of baseball operations. With LA, he will be responsible for overseeing all data analytics and working closely with the general manager and hockey operations staff on strategic development.
Prior to his time with the Cubs, he spent 15 years in software engineering and advancement with companies such as Noesis Energy, SolarWinds, Hyper9, AlterPoint and Cargill. The Minnesota native is receiving his Master of Computer Science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and has his Bachelor of Arts in Quantitative Methods and Computer Science from the University of St. Thomas.”
Senior Hockey Analyst Rob Vollman
https://speakerhub.com/speaker/rob-vollman
Hockey Analyst Hayden Speak
https://www.linkedin.com/in/hayden-speak-aa944510b
Software Engineer for Research and Development Rosie Yu
“Yu, who has a PhD in Materials Engineering from MIT and is receiving her Master of Computer Science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, will report to Kruse and work to further hockey operations applications and analytical models.”
These guys are not fucking around with some dudes working in their basements.
Where does this speak to collecting data at the AHL level?
Thank you.
I could do this.
I wonder if BLH will cut and paste my summary from this site and post it on his website without so much as a mention of where he got it from….. again.
If I were a Coach, and was using fancy numbers and algorithms and AI and everything I could get my hands on, I’d say a whole lot of nothing about it in public.
With the blizzard of analytics hires announced in the past year and their appearance on team websites I don’t think it’s much of a secret which teams are invested.
Exactly what they’re actually doing is another thing.
Practice at 2pm today, I’m guessing we see:
Kane/McDavid/Yamamoto
McLeod/Drai/Puljujarvi
Hyman/Nuge/Kassian
Foegele/Shore/Ryan
Nurse/Bouch
Keith/Ceci
Lagesson/Barrie
Smith
Koskinen
I would like to see Yamamoto and Puljujarvi switched. Jesse works better with McDavid and Drai/Yamo have a 400 minute plus resume of success together without McDavid or Nuge.
I would like to see McLeod at center as I think he’s more valuable helping the bottom six at center and he’s not really a winger on a skilled line. 4C would be just fine as long as the coaches are able to continue to roll lines (i.e. not chasing the game and not too many penalties) and I think McLeod can be given more PK2 minutes.
The issue is I just don’t really like Foegele as 2LW so I don’t know who else to play there. I would like to give Benson a shot but its not happening and Perlini has been terrible in the top 6 (much better in the bottom six).
I just finished an old Bob Stauffer pod cast where he mentions to Elliot Friedman on his show about the possibility of the Oilers going after Carter Hart.
Elliott was skeptical about the Flyers trading Hart but acknowledged the possibility, Elliot also wasn’t concerned about Flyers trading him as much as he was concerned about the cost to obtain Hart.
Personally, this is one of the only goalies I would want the Oilers to go after.
the cost would be dear.
If you assume the migraine(?) issue was dealt with and last year was an aberration, yes, he’d be your goalie for the next decade.
Wasn’t Nolan Patrick also out with migraines? It would be interesting if these were connected somehow.
As anticipated, Rodrigue down to the Condors as Smith is activated.
He’ll probably end up on Wichita soon as the Condors have Skinner, Stalock and Konovalov.
Its not ideal as they all need to play – Skinner got both starts this past weekend.
They don’t play until Friday: Fri, Sat, Mon I believe.
They should just do Stalock a favour and loan him out, if they can find a home. Good pro deserves chance to show he’s worth some future paychecks but in pecking order no sensical place for him going forward in any logical rosters
Yes, I was going to include something along those lines in my post – would be great to find another org that needs a goalie to take on Stalock for some games on loan.
Would still be Oiler property with the ability to take him back at any time if they wanted to (and to bring him to the NHL if things go that well).
The Russell IR saves Turris a trip to Bakersfield for now:
#LetsgoOilers
Activated off IR:
Mike Smith (G)
Placed on IR:
Kris Russell (D)
Recalled from Bakersfield:
William Lagesson (D)
Loaned to Bakersfield:
Olivier Rodrigue (G)
Bouchard, McLeod, Skinner and Samorukov won’t be waiver exempt next season, something to think about. The first 2 have made the team so it won’t matter, Skinner has likely shown enough that the Oilers won’t expose him, but Samorukov may be trade bait this spring/ summer to avoid losing him for nothing in the fall.
Bouchard and McLeod are full time NHL players now.
Unless Samorukov gets a recall this season and plays a string of games and plays well, there is all but zero chance he’d get claimed off waivers in September/October.
Much more famous players that him pass through leading up to the season every year.
Weren’t teams asking Kenny about him last year? If he has decent form to finish out this season he won’t make it through.
Because good size and boots, can handle the biscuit, and mean. Perfect if he keeps developing.
Nurse Samu Niems LD after next season. Big mobile and mean, love it. Just need the RD to balance. Could be Barrie 3RD, could be better.
Of course not with Tipp. Maybe another coach.
I’ve been talking up Samorukov for 3 years now so you don’t have to sell me on his skills.
I stand by my point that a 23 year old, non-famous (i.e. not high draft pick) player with 2 minutes on his NHL resume would most likely slide through waivers with the dozens of similar resume players that do every year at that time.
Fair enough!
Condors’ would have had a solid chance at the Calder Cup last season if there was a normal playoff.
With respect to Holloway in the NHL this season, do we think the fact that his wrist still causes him lots of pain and there is very decrease mobility (and both will take a number of months) will keep him in Bakersfield longer (maybe all season)?
Lavoie is starting to make an impact each game now. He is still wildly inconsistent within games (where you won’t notice him for significant periods of time) but there are 2-3 shifts a game where he moves his feet for a strong puck play or works his way for a great shot creation or just snaps one home from being in the right place.
He’s coming – just wish he’d be more consistent – he’s always had this issue.
One-shot scorers look different on the ice than other players. They drift in an out of soft areas that other players don’t so they look invisible for significant periods of time.
Stealth
Is fine if the D and N zones are tidy
I’ve watched enough of Lavoie since he was drafted to know that his invisibility isn’t related to the above – its a consistency of effort and commitment from shift to shift.
Since December 1st, among goalies that have played at least 8 games, Semyon Varlamov is 4th in the league with a .933 save percentage. His GSAx is +5.52 in 9 games. Small sample size, but he’s healthy and he’s hot… the Islanders aren’t making the playoffs, Sorokin has cemented his grasp on the starters role, and Lou needs the cap space next year.
Koskinen + 1st for Varlamov?
That leaves the Oilers with some cap complications next year, but we’ll worry about that in the summer. 😉
Who’s in? Why or why not?
He’s better than what we have
5M for an extra year isn’t too bad, basically adding what should be a proper NHL keeper for an extra 500K over Koski
The only thing is Russians and the Oilers. Hasn’t gone so well most of the time
But Holland knows Russian players so maybe that’s different now
It gives Skinner another year which he probably needs
I think at this point there is a good chance Smith has to hang them up after this season as well
Skinner isn’t waiver exempt next year unfortunately. So Bakersfield isn’t likely an option for him.
If Smith gets hurt (when) would Skinner need waivers?
No he isn’t exempt
That second year bites KH unless he will demote Smith
Times a wastin
Ugh, does it have to be the 1st?
It does make an awful lot of sense though.
Varlamov has pretty solid numbers all down the line. .916 overall this season, .916 for his career as well, and .919 in 60 playoff games.
Does it have to be the 1st? Good question, I think that’s the high-water mark though. Lou will point out that we’re getting him for 2 playoff runs, hopefully Holland counters that there are about 15 goaltenders on the market this season, some of whom (MAF, Holtby) have better playoff records and/or experience, and not many teams will be in the market for a goalie at the deadline. I’d rather it was something less than the 1st, but I’m not counting on it.
The 1st does seem like a relatively fair price (compare to Kuemper).
And as Gerta suggested maybe you can pry another rental out with Varlamov, with Koskinen and Turris (?) going the other way to even out the cap.
I wonder if Lou would include Chara in the deal
His money isn’t an issue ($750k)…it would make dealing the 1st a little more palatable
Was thinking the same thing. Clutterbuck or possibly Andy Green could make some sense too.
I like both these ideas but is this premised on Smith being on LTIR or as backup? Not sure the salary works in the second scenario. Lou would probably want a 4th or a prospect because grinder.
Chara especially, would be a great add. Talk about calming the waters.
I can’t speak for jp but Smith would have to accept that he is one of 3 pro goalies (with Skinner in the AHL for now) and the goalie that stops the most pucks gets the net
Smith has been around long enough to understand this, and with his inability to stay healthy this year, I think he’d accept such a trade (Koski out, Varlamov in)
As for next year, we’ll deal with that in the summer
disregard my post above, I misread your post
I think the money works…?….Koski $4.5M + Turris $1.6M = $6.1M for Varly $5M + Chara/Greene $750k = $5.75
Kenny would have to retain about $350k on Turris to make it money in/money out
Gerta partly answered it, but it was premised with Smith as backup (though obviously him on LTIR would also work).
If you use the Oilers current roster on Capfriendly (with Smith activated) you see $54k in cap available (https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers).
There are 15 forwards, 6 D and 2 goalies listed, but also Russel in regular IR, so 24 total players. If you assume Russell returns (cap hit already included) and Turris buried (subtract $1.125M of his $1.65M cap hit), the Oilers ‘normal current roster’ would have just shy of $1.2M in cap space (or $1.7M if Turris were traded).
Varlamov ($5M) for Koskinen ($4.5M) adds $500k, so then ~$700k in space.
As Gerta mentions Chara (and Greene) have cap hits of $750k, so adding him and removing Lagesson ($725) has basically no effect on the cap.
Clutterbuck has a cap hit of $3.5M so NYI would need to retain half and take Turris for that one to work.
It would be possible though, cap wise, to do the following trade:
Varlamov
Clutterbuck (50% retained)
Chara
-for
1st
Koskinen
Turris
(and presumably other picks/prospects)
That would add, I believe, $625k to the Oilers current cap, leaving them with $550-$600k (barring injuries).
While he doesn’t have any trade protection, I’m not 100% that Chara would report if he was traded out west to Edmonton.
Gregor just had Woodley on his show.
They discussed Varlamov. They agreed on a hard NO. can’t relate all the details. But they were pretty exhaustive in their analysis.
They discussed both Seattle goalies and the answer was a firm but softer NO. Both goalies playing poorly. Not team effects.
The discussed Reimer and Greiss and both were soft NO also. One of them having worse stats than Mikko on net front HDSC and the other just no better than Mikko/
They couldn’t come up with a logical alternative for the Oilers
Why was Varlamov a hard no?
Yup, i just listened to Woodley on with Gregor as well but, even before hearing what he had to say, I wasn’t a big fan of acquiring Varlamov – definitely not for material assets out.
$5MM cap hit for next year makes this border on a negative value contract. There is no doubt the Isles would love to be rid of it.
Sending back Mikko would, of course, up the acquisition cost but I wouldn’t come close to a 1st given the $5MM cap risk for next season.
For me, the goalie target is easy – its Holtby. Obviously contingent on the Stars selling but, if they are getting rid of pending UFA Klingberg, they likely will be.
Pending UFA, manageable cap hit, good bounce-back season and fairly recent high end playoff pedigree.
Woodley’s take on Varlamov doesn’t hold water, not an ounce. He 100% misrepresented the numbers, including expected goals and save percentage, since coming back from early season injury. It’s just a bad take all around. Go look up the numbers yourself and you’ll see that he’s wrong.
Prior to December:
Varlamov: 5 gp, 3.46 GAA, 2.45 xGA/60 (-1.01), .881 sv%, .767 hdsv%
Sorokin: 13 gp, 2.42 GAA, 2.77 xGA/60 (+0.35), .928 sv%, .821 hdsv%
Since December 1st
Varlamov: 9 gp, 2.11 GAA, 2.72 xG/60 (+0.61), .933 sv%, .857 hdsv%
Sorokin: 13 gp, 2.21 GAA, 2.34 xGA/60 (+0.13), .920 sv%, .873 hdsv%
If that’s not a recovery I don’t know what is. You guys need to do your research instead of parroting Kevin Woodley, who clearly hasn’t done his.
I’ll take your word for that but will say that there are difference sources for numbers that don’t always line up. I don’t think Woodley used NST for his numbers, for example.
In any event, as i stated, I’m not interested in paying real assets for Varlamov given his contract for next season – The Isles would love to be rid of it and, while i know all about Lou’s skills, that doesn’t mean the Oilers should pay for doing them a favor and creating a massive cap risk for next season – in my opinion.
I’m not sure I want him at any cost, let alone a 1st rounder, without bad cap for next season going back. I mean, if they would take Kassian then, sure, lets talk.
So… you’re taking my word for it but casting doubt on the numbers at the same time? Interesting position… I challenge you to find ANY data that suggests anything other than what mine shows: Varlamov was poor in his first 5 games and one of the league’s best since then. You may use any site you like.
This team’s kryptonite is goaltending and you have an opportunity to get one of the league’s best goalies (proven, experienced, playoff tested) for $5M next year and you consider that a dump?? Another interesting position. This guy has consistently put up better numbers than John Gibson (who you’d love to get) but $5M is too much. Right.
In actual fact, spending a 1st + Koskinen on Varlamov is less than what Colorado spent on Kuemper, and if you can get Chara to come too that’s an added bonus. Colorado got Arizona to retain $1M but had to send a good young RHD and a conditional 3rd based on winning the Cup.
1) All I said as there are various different sources for these types of numbers and I don’t know where Woodley has got his numbers from (and he does have access to certain non-publicly available data if I’m not mistaken).
2) I have NEVER argued in favor of getting John Gibson with his contract and acquisition cost.
I don’t understand how Varlamov is close to negative value.
The Islanders would like to be rid of him because they have another quality starter and don’t need to pay a 2nd goalie $5M, not because he isn’t worth $5M. I don’t view the 2nd year as a negative at all, since Varlamov is a good goalie.
It’s true Hotly will be cheaper if the Stars turn into sellers, but in terms of SV% there’s no comparison between Varlamov and Holtby. Varlamov has a better SV% this season, even during in Holtby’s renaissance (his current .913 is his best SV% since 16-17).
This season:
Varlamov .916
Holtby .913
Last season:
Varlamov was .929 regular season, .922 playoffs (14GP)
Holtby .889 regular season
19-20:
Varlamov was .914 regular season, .921 playoffs (20GP)
Holtby .897 regular season, .906 playoffs (8GP)
18-19 was more even:
Varlamov was .909 regular season
Holtby .911 regular season, .914 playoffs (7GP)
You need to go back to when Talbot led the Oilers over the Sharks to find a time when Holtby was actually better than Varlamov.
I just listened to the spot and Woodley clearly hasn’t looked at Varlamov recently. He even talks about his expected goal numbers not being very good and that they don’t show that he’s recovered from his early season injury – which flat out isn’t true. I stated some of these numbers above and, although a small sample size, they DO show that he has recovered.
So I’m not going to accept his “expert” testimony.
The Islanders are the tightest defensive team in the league. The Oilers are the loosest. It is very likely that Koskinen > Varlamov and you have gutted this season and next season, and will have thrown away a cheap ELC in the medium term.
Do the goaltender in the summertime. The Oilers should find out what they have in Skinner this year.
What is the basis for saying that the Islanders are the tightest on defense and the Oilers are the loosest?
I do know that, just today, Gregor referenced that the Knights give up more high end scoring chances than the Oilers……
Can’t tell you which data source he was using for that stat.
The math disagrees with you in a big way. Varlamov > Koskinen and it’s not close. And I like Koskinen more than 95% of Oilers fans.
Agree, there’s no publicly available data suggesting the Islanders are a lockdown team (and the public data shows them far enough from it that I don’t think I’d believe any private data if it were presented). They have gotten quality goaltending though.
Canadians have 6 medals so far, behind only Russia who have 7.
We OWN the Bronze Baby!!!
All your Bronzes are belong to us!
Boo….
” I still think Currie and McDougall deserved at least a legit shot at the NHL.”
That makes 3 of you. You, Currie and McDougall. 🙂
Did Currie and McDougall go on to have lengthy careers in other leagues?
Currie is having a solid season as a depth scorer in the KHL right now.
Oilers being very weird about Mike Smith’s injuries this year:
1) Day to Day LBI turned out to be months & LTIR
2) Day to Day torn digit tendon turns out to be weeks then LTIR
How does it benefit them to lie about injury length & timeline?
1) the original LBI didn’t heal as quickly as expected and the recovery dragged out. IIRC he was practicing and testing it and was thought to be close to returning a number of times before backing off.
2) wasn’t it reported pretty quickly that he’d be out weeks with the tendon tear? Maybe not immediately, but within days of it happening, I think. Once it was properly diagnosed. The LTIR was needed to open cap due to other injuries and doesn’t really indicate any change in Smith’s status.
I didn’t have the impression there was any intentional deceit in the timelines given.
What happened to your “source”?
Trade market value.
Does Jason Like Chychrun? and at what price/cost?
How about this fella Jack Roslovic?
He is right handed, excellent skater and loads of skill.
He’s not the physical player needed. He is also in the dog house for not being a great two way player.
But he is 25 and 2.5M now, maybe less next year. I could see him in the Oilers 2RW position.
Blue Jackets don’t want him, Oilers should grab him if the price is right.
Thoughts?
I don’t understand all the trade proposals to acquire forwards?
That position is suddenly the deepest position on the team.
If Holland adds anyone it’s going to be a dman or a goalie.
Its because the team is weak on right wing. This isn’t the only trade and says nothing about priority of goalie, d-man etc.
Its just a thought on getting incrementally better.
If you can improve that #2RW position, you bump everyone else down and get that lacking depth. Much better than adding a fourth liner which just provides security to everyone above. If you do it through castaways similar to Kane, it should be an easy decision.
Though I truly don’t know enough about Roslovic.
I don’t think they are thin at RW. They can always move Hyman there if it’s an issue.
What makes you think Roslovic is an improvement over JP and Yamamoto?
What Bill McDougall did in those playoffs will always be staggering. Absolutely amazing. His hockeydb is fascinating.
Ask Jason, “The Canadian Women’s Hockey Team 23 players (or so) trains for years, plays through a series of 60 minute games to get to the Final. If they win Canada get ONE Gold Medal in the standings.
Meanwhile, a kid not yet out of high school, gets high (Im lookin at you Ross Rebagliati ) and flies down a half pipe 3 times for a total of 5 minutes and his team gets ONE Gold Medal in the standings.
Sup with that.
Are you saying the snowboarders don’t train for years??
That’s what you take away from the question?
High school dude. How many years could that possibly be?
(Randle thinks back and remembers his 5 years of high school)
You’re right Shane….scratch the training remark. 🙂
First off, Mr Rebagliati didn’t compete in the halfpipe. Secondly, why does the fact he smoked pot have anything to do with him earning that ONE medal?
You’re comparing apples and oranges. You could compare it to pairs figure skating and ask why they don’t get one medal. Or even 4 man bobsled, or any other team sport.
Who gets the start against Las Vegas will be VERY interesting.
I would be very surprised if it wasn’t Mike Smith
I will be “a little” surprised if it’s not Mike Smith.
The only reason I say this is because Mikko is hot and Smith could not possibly be any colder coming of of and extended injury layoff, and the easier team to play is the Blackhawks.
This is logical yes. But we know what Tippett is going to do.
Well actually almost everyone in here has been wrong for the last 3 weeks in guessing what Tippett would do in net.
Its almost certainly going to be Smith. Tippett all but named him as the starter before the break.
It also should be Smith (in my opinion) – this team will be best if Smith can find some form playing 2 out 3 down the stretch and Mikko plays 1 out of 3.
Smith was in the starters’ net at practice today – although Mikko didn’t come out (at least to start)……. so that’s something to keep an eye on.
Mikko is one of the few that hasn’t been on Covid list this season….
42 Days.
42 days is the “showcase window” for Holland to test drive the Smith/Koskinen tandem.
While I’m certain his mind is not yet made up, I’m almost as certain that he has already formulated a plan B and a plan C.
Somewhere buried in his desk drawer is a sticky note with the names of 2 other goalies.
Beside the name of one of the goalies is written “in exchange for the 2022 1st, the 2023 1st and Defensive Prospect XXX”
Light a Candle, and join me in prayer…
Common! Mike Smith!
2 1sts and a D prospect , My gosh which goalie do you think that is.
OK. But you cannot tell a soul that I paid the Janitor to sneak a peek.
John Gibson.
Wow, Yes that would be great and well worth 2/1sts and Samorukov, because I am sure they would be taking The big Finn back. Now would that include them eating a bit of salary?
I am not sure. Janitor got spooked by someone in the hallway.
Hellebuyck? I wouldn’t pay that much for Gibson… and Anaheim is pushing for the playoffs this year so they won’t move him anyhow. Not that Hellebuyck is on the market either…
I would pay that for Gibson. He’s outstanding! Anaheim wouldn’t be close to a playoff spot without him.
He’s been good this year, but it’s the first time in about 5 years he’s been good. Looking at a larger sample leaves me underwhelmed.
4 years actually. There’s this disturbing trend with Gibson of starting hot and then fading badly which hasn’t happened yet this year.
2018-19
First 12 games: .935
Remaining 46: .911
2019-20
First 12 games: .926
Remaining 39: .897
2020-21
First 12 games: .923
Remaining 23: .894
2021-22
First 14 games: .926
Next 19 to date: .920
Sure wouldn’t want to live in your head. That kind of negative thinking is not good. Old saying ( don’t borrow trouble )
Holly Hell. We got fleeced on every trade of a guy whose banner is hanging in our rafters.
For those who weren’t around back then, Steven Rice’s modern day equivalent in terms of “fitting in” on the big club was…Nail Yakupov.
The team got fleeced, while Poklington stuffed his pockets
Someone should write a book on “Suspect Owners”…Peter Puck, Bruce McNall, etc
These guys are FASCINATING!
Doug weight
I wonder what element Marody doesn’t bring that’s keeping him out of the lineup.
Physical play? Winning faceoffs? PK?
Because all he does is score and can’t seem to get his beak wet.
I wonder the same. He doesn’t fit the Oiler’s top 6. I hope he could fit somewhere on the 3rd line. Not sure if he has been tried on the PK.
He’s got some minimal time on the PK in BAK, but nothing significant.
Boots . But also I don’t think Tippet likes his play overall. Benson was in the same boat until he got his boots going and completely altered his game, yet he still is not playing. It is odd that Holland won’t put him on waivers ( sure he knows he would get taken) but yet the coach won’t play him. But Marody just isn’t in this coaches plans period
Probably reading into LT’s posts too much… is it draft pedigree? I mean many are slotting Holloway up for trade deadline, meanwhile Marody is having a fine season. I think Marody should get the call up, if we’re basing it on merit and not potential.
These two players are starkly different. With Halloway it isn’t if he makes the NHL but when! Size, elite skating, compete, and arguably hockey IQ are superior to Marody. He is also younger.
He does everything well but leaves you wanting would be the way I would put it. It is my belief the organization doesn’t believe his offence will follow him to the NHL. By his numbers you would think he has earned an opportunity!