I received a DM yesterday discussing the point total for Dylan Holloway and what it might mean for his NHL career. Here’s the truth. I don’t think Holloway will spend a long time in the minors, possibly less than Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto.
However, if he does have around .5 points-per-game, it won’t exclude him from an NHL career.
The players who spend time in the AHL and then have NHL careers doesn’t line up with the big offensive contributors at age 20 in their first AHL seasons. Looking back 25 years, it’s an absolute truth: Minor league players who spend significant time there before jumping to NHL success have other skills aside from scoring to recommend them. Holloway is an offensive player, unless his injury and recovery are going to hold him back, he’s not long for Bakersfield.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ quiet man, is making loud noises on a new line
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- DNB: Mike Smith keeps showing he’s not the Oilers’ answer in net.
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s early Oilers roster challenges and possible upgrades
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- DNB: Jay Woodcroft’s ascension to Oilers head coach is more than a dream come true: ‘Winning is a skill’
- DNB: Six signs of positive change surface for the Oilers in Jay Woodcroft’s victorious coaching debut
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: WAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, CHI, NYI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-4-2, 14 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 6-4-0, 12 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 28-20-3, 59 points in 51 games
FORWARDS AGE 20, THROUGH THE YEARS
- LW Steve Kelly (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 48gp, 9-29-38 .792
- C Jason Bonsignore (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 78gp, 21-33-54 .692
- RW Georges Laraque (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 73gp, 14-20-34 .466
This is one of my favourite rookie seasons, two high HIGH picks and a world class enforcer. If you’d bet BG in the summer of 1997 you would have pocketed a pile of money by 2000. Laraque was a fun player to watch, he dragged half of the defensemen from your childhood along the wall, 200 feet from Edmonton’s net. 695 NHL games, he helped Edmonton to a final. Absolute example of the skilled kids who don’t make the NHL right away being a little bit suspect along with being prospects.
- RW Michel Riesen (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 73gp, 29-31-60 .822
- C Peter Sarno (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 67gp 10-36-46 .687
- LW Jason Chimera (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 78gp, 15-13-28 .359
Same damn thing, this time it’s pure speed that allowed Jason Chimera to rise above the rest. He had a rugged side to his game and that helped too, and he succeeded beyond anyone’s projection (1107 NHL games). My lasting memory of Chimera is frustration with his usage, but men like Fernando Pisani were a better fit for the style of the team during these years.
- LW Jani Rita (01-02 Hamilton Bulldgos) 76gp, 25-17-42 .553
- C Jarret Stoll (02-03 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 21-33-54 .711
- RW Kyle Brodziak (04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners) 56gp, 6-26-32 .571
- C Marc Pouliot (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 15-30-45 .692
- LW Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677
- RW Zack Stortini (05-06 Iowa/Milwaukee) 64gp, 2-8-10 .156
- C Rob Schremp (06-07 SWB Penguins) 69gp, 17-36-53 .768
- LW Slava Trukhno (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 64gp, 14-21-35 .547
- C Ryan O’Marra (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 31gp 2-7-9 .290
Nine players here and only three made it to the extent we could call them true NHL players. Stoll and Brodziak had a nice range of skills and were RH centers, so those are good bets to evolve into useful players. Stortini is a truly unlikely candidate, and I credit MacT with seeing him as a useful player. One quick note: These are the men who were orphaned during the period when the ownership group flushed the minor league team.
- LW Teemu Hartikainen (10-11 OKC Barons) 66gp, 17-25-42 .636
- LW Phil Cornet (10-11 OKC Barons) 60gp, 7-16-23 .383
- RW Tyler Pitlick (11-12 OKC Barons) 62gp, 7-16-23 .371
- LW Curtis Hamilton (11-12 OKC Barons) 41gp, 5-6-11 .268
- LW Magnus Paajarvi (11-12 OKC Barons) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735
- LC Anton Lander (11-12 OKC Barons) 14gp, 1-4-5 .357
Steve Tambellini brought the minor-league team to Oklahoma City and the system started producing prospects again. Hartikainen should have had an NHL career, constant management and coaching shuffles obscured his true skills in my opinion. Paajarvi (467 NHL games), Pitlick (311) and Lander (215) all played significant amounts in the NHL, but I do think (like Hartikainen) Edmonton’s own disarray impeded progress in these seasons.
- LC Bogdan Yakimov (14-15 OKC Barons) 57gp, 12-16-28 .491
- LC Jujhar Khaira (14-15 OKC Barons) 51gp, 4-6-10 .196
- LC Marco Roy (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 42gp, 8-12-20 .476
- RC Kyle Platzer (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 48gp, 6-11-17 .354
- LW Tyler Benson (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 68gp, 15-51-66 .971
- RW Jesse Puljujarvi (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 4gp, 2-2-4 1.00
I included these years specifically because this group is so strange. Jujhar Khaira barely delivered offense of any kind and has now played 285 NHL games. Benson has the best points-per-game total in the group (Puljujarvi didn’t play enough to qualify) and has played just 31 games. I do think his most recent two games might be his best. Jesse Puljujarvi is here to prove my point. He was mishandled so badly it’s a wonder he turned out so well, but JP proves that very good skill players just don’t spend much time in the AHL. Benson has to catch Khaira right? History says no. It isn’t even close to certain.
- LC Ryan McLeod (19-20 Bakersfield Condors) 56gp, 5-18-23 .411
- RW Kailer Yamamoto (19-20 Bakersfield Condors) 23gp, 8-8-16 .696
- RW Raphael Lavoie (20-21 Bakersfield Condors) 19gp, 5-5-10 .526
- LW Dylan Holloway (21-22 Bakersfield Condors) 14gp, 3-5-8 .571
I think this group of 20 year olds has real potential. Could all four make it? Who would you pick as most likely to succeed? Yamamoto did not post anything close to a point-per-game and is having trouble scoring enough to play on a skill line. Did his AHL output foretell the future?
THE ENTIRE LIST IN ORDER OF POINTS-PER-GAME
- RW Jesse Puljujarvi (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 4gp, 2-2-4 1.00 [240]
- LW Tyler Benson (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 68gp, 15-51-66 .971 [31]
- RW Michel Riesen (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 73gp, 29-31-60 .822 [12]
- LW Steve Kelly (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 48gp, 9-29-38 .792 [149]
- C Rob Schremp (06-07 SWB Penguins) 69gp, 17-36-53 .768 [114]
- LW Magnus Paajarvi (11-12 OKC Barons) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735 [467]
- C Jarret Stoll (02-03 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 21-33-54 .711 [872]
- RW Kailer Yamamoto (19-20 Bakersfield Condors) 23gp, 8-8-16 .696 [156]
- C Jason Bonsignore (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 78gp, 21-33-54 .692 [79]
- C Marc Pouliot (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 15-30-45 .692 [192]
- C Peter Sarno (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 67gp 10-36-46 .687 [7]
- LW Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677 [166]
- LW Teemu Hartikainen (10-11 OKC Barons) 66gp, 17-25-42 .636 [52]
- RW Kyle Brodziak (04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners) 56gp, 6-26-32 .571 [917]
- LW Dylan Holloway (21-22 Bakersfield Condors) 14gp, 3-5-8 .571
- LW Jani Rita (01-02 Hamilton Bulldgos) 76gp, 25-17-42 .553 [66]
- LW Slava Trukhno (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 64gp, 14-21-35 .547
- RW Raphael Lavoie (20-21 Bakersfield Condors) 19gp, 5-5-10 .526
- LC Bogdan Yakimov (14-15 OKC Barons) 57gp, 12-16-28 .491 [1]
- LC Marco Roy (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 42gp, 8-12-20 .476
- RW Georges Laraque (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 73gp, 14-20-34 .466 [695]
- C Ryan McLeod (19-20 Bakersfield Condors) 56gp, 5-18-23 .411 [50]
- LW Phil Cornet (10-11 OKC Barons) 60gp, 7-16-23 .383 [2]
- RW Tyler Pitlick (11-12 OKC Barons) 62gp, 7-16-23 .371 [311]
- LW Jason Chimera (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 78gp, 15-13-28 .359 [1,107]
- LC Anton Lander (11-12 OKC Barons) 14gp, 1-4-5 .357 [215]
- RC Kyle Platzer (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 48gp, 6-11-17 .354
- C Ryan O’Marra (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 31gp 2-7-9 .290 [33]
- LW Curtis Hamilton (11-12 OKC Barons) 41gp, 5-6-11 .268 [1]
- LC Jujhar Khaira (14-15 OKC Barons) 51gp, 4-6-10 .196 [285]
- RW Zack Stortini (05-06 Iowa/Milwaukee) 64gp, 2-8-10 .156 [257]
There are more NHL careers in the bottom 10 than the top 10. How can this be? Well, we discuss this during the Farm Workers posts each year, but the “stars” of the AHL tend to be two-way forwards like Fernando Pisani and Daniel Cleary after they’ve burned off the rough edges while playing hockey in mining towns. If a Rob Schremp or Tyler Benson lingers in the minors, it’s actually more of a red flag than if an enforcer or physical player spends three seasons there.
I think we can safely place the successful players in four categories: Players who didn’t belong in the AHL in the first place (20-year old Jesse Puljujarvi), speedsters who needed time to find a way to post some offense (Magnus Paajarvi, Jason Chimera), players who needed some polish and to stand out from the crowd (Jarret Stoll, Kyle Brodziak, Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick), enforcers and physical forwards (Georges Laraque, Zack Stortini, Jujhar Khaira).
What does this mean for current Oilers prospect forwards in Bakersfield?
I think Holloway is in the Puljujarvi bin, he’s there to show he’s healthy and can perform. He might spend the entire season down there, but there’s just too much talent there to derail.
Speedsters looking for a way to find offense? Ryan McLeod was in Bakersfield for seven games this season, he qualifies. James Hamblin doesn’t have an NHL contract, but would qualify if he did.
Players who need polish and to stand out in the crowd? Raphael Lavoie is doing it right now, Cooper Marody reached the threshold years ago and remains there.
Enforcers and physical forwards? Ostap Safin, he shows flashes but lacks consistency. Dino Kambeitz, who also doesn’t have an NHL contract but continues to impress the hell out of me.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Friday!! A busy show begins at 10, TSN1260. We’ll chat with TSN Insider Chris Johnston about the Oilers goaltending situation and some of the more interesting names on the trade deadline list. We’ll also have another edition of Crossfire! teeing up both early games on Saturday and Sunday. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Regular Season sv% of goalies who played the most in the playoffs for the Stanley Cup winning team:
2021 – Tampa Bay – Vasilevskiy – .925
2020 – Tampa Bay – Vasilevskiy – .917
2019 – St. Louis – Binnington – .927
2018 – Washington – Holtby – .907
2017 – Pittsburgh – Fleury – .909
2016 – Pittsburgh – Murray (13gp) – .930
2015 – Chicago – Crawford – .924
….of the team who lost in the finals (Silver Medalists):
2021 – Montreal – Price .901
2020 – Dallas – Khudobin .930
2019 – Boston – Rask .912
2018 – Vegas – Fleury .927
2017 – Nashville -Rinne .918
2016 – San Jose – Jones .918
2015 – Tampa Bay -Bishop .916
Average of these 14 –> .919
10 out of 14 have a save % >= .916, the ones below are: .912, .909, .907, .901
So as might be expected of champion team distribution, one Cinderella, a few low outliers, the rest good to great.
It’s a team stat though, if we bring in a good goalie, how close does that get us?
Did you see the way Yams played when The Highlander stole The Samurai’s spot on the first line? Like his skates were on fire. Great to see. But also make me wonder… if McLeod does well the next two games–because he had a helluva game against the Bolts–does he ever come out of the top 6? Top 9?
Probably, but I don’t think it is by any means for certain. He’s like Tyler Ennis.. Always covering, always in the right spot. Except he’s 6’2″ 207 and skates like a gale force wind.
But he probably goes down to the bottom line just because the Oil need four strong centers. Sure would like to see him with Nuge and Foeglethorpe though.
If they were looking to bolster the 4th line, Andrew Cogliano would be an interesting target.
11 games to trade deadline
And after the weekend set, there will be nine. Phone lines will be starting to warm up.
Do they still have phone lines?
The tops of cell towers will be starting to glow…
Crazy Trades time:
PIT
Archibald to PIT for 7th Round pick
PHI
Samorukov, Kassian, and 2nd in ’23 for Ristolainen
ARI
Lavoie, Bourgault, Rodrique, Koskinen, 1st in ’22, and 2nd in ’22 for Chychrun, Crouse and 2nd in 22 (formerly Philadelphia’s)
NSH
Barrie, Smith, Konovalov, 7th in ’22, 3rd in ’23, and 3rd in ’24 for Ingram, Prokop, Benning, and Rittich
New Roster:
Hyman / McDavid / Puljujarvi
Kane / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Crouse / Nugent-Hopkins / Foegele
Benson / McLeod / Perlini
(Ryan / Holloway)
Nurse / Ceci
Chychrun / Ristolainen
Keith / Bouchard
(Niemelainen, Broberg, Russell, Lagesson) / Benning (Prokop)
Skinner
Ingram (Rittich)
Are these Overpays? Underpays? Realistic? Not-Even-Close?
Do they make the team better?
It may be an overpay, but I think it is worth it as most of these players are under control and young enough to be with the team for a while.
Benning and Ristolainen are rentals. It would be nice to get Ristolainen re-signed, but I’m not sure there would be room next year. Something would have to give. But I think this lineup could really turn things around and make a run for it. Goaltending is a big gamble, but I think Skinner/Ingram might surprise and there is a chance they are a couple of future starters.
Well, I think at first glance it’s a bit much to consider that many trades and that amount of organizational turnover. And it guts the prospect depth.
Somebody opened a bottle of cab sauv… so let’s look at it anyways and see what’s realistic.
Archibald being traded for a pick. I think this has strong possibilities, as much as I love the player and would prefer to keep him. But we can always re-sign him in the off-season. This might be seen as a sign of goodwill to the player. However, I think he’d have to play a couple of home games before a team would take a chance on him. Gotta have heart.
Ristolainen… I don’t see Holly doing this deal. I know there’s talk of Risto wanting out and there’s probably a deal there, but I don’t see him sending those kind of assets for a rental. And sending out both Archie and Kass is probably not a good idea.
Chychrun etc… I don’t think Arizona will do that deal. Crouse is having the best year of his career on a shite team. Sure he has the arb hammer but they’re not short of cap space and it’s not like his contract will be a ridic raise or anything. And I’d think they’d want more. Pretty sure Holland would be over the cap at this point too.
Nashville… essentially three cap dumps, and all we’re payin is three mid-picks… plus we get a bunch of stuff we need? I don’t see that deal being accepted by Poile.
You also may have spent all those assets and not actually solved the goaltending question. With two of your best goaltending prospects down the river.
Sorry with Nash that’s two cap dumps and three picks and a prospect. Still don’t see it. Just cause what is motivating them to do that deal?
It just occurred to me. Who is coaching in Bakersfield?
Colin Chaulk
He is a new coach they brought in this year as an assistant to coach the FW’s to replace Rejean Houle’s son, JF, who was hired by Montreal to coach their AHL team Laval.
He was a Head coach for Brampton Beast, ECHL.
45 years old
Puck drop is 9:30 am PST
I might have to set my alarm
Koski promises to make the first five minutes worth it.
Desert dogs have got to last 14 more minutes against those nasty kiniggits.
Run, little coyotes, run!
Yotes win 3-1
Hot diggity Dogs say no to the Ni.
I’ll attempt to fill in for our local prospect aficionado Tarkus with one or two-lio thoughts on the Oshawa captain’s game tonight.
– while clearly out matched by a chl top 10 team in Kingston, Tullio was the best player on on the ice for the Generals. Skated miles and was always buzzing around the puck with his unique hunched skating style that produces more than enough quickness and agility to wreak havoc on the forecheck, which he did tonight.
-speaking of, to sum up his game in one word: aggressive. Especially without the puck and trying to get it back. Created turnovers with his smarts, quickness and good stick and never gave up on a play. Did over commit a couple of times looking for a turnover but the reads were generally solid.
– in the 3rd with his team down several goals he was particularly hard on one forecheck that prompted the pbp guy to mention something along the lines of “his team may be down but you’d never know it based on Tullio’s play.” This included a late strong forecheck 1 on 2 where he somehow gained possession and made a diving pass out in front for a near chance.
– his goal on the PP was a beauty, as evidenced by the link Tarkus posted below. Terrific shot. Main facilitator on the PP from the point, tho this may have been impacted by the 5 on 3 situation. Also played the McD role of last man back and receiving the back pass to gain the zone with speed, which he did with ease.
-I counted 2 near misses on other grade A chances at evens where his quick release almost beat the Sens 2nd rounder in net.
– overall a very fun player to watch. Skilled with the puck, always looking to make a play but perhaps even more fun to watch without it. Some of the dogged Yamo determination to him but with more size conducive to that style. While he may be over aggressive at times in his puck chasing, his physicality was very noticeable and would much rather have to reign in a player like that than have to get them to ramp up their motor.
-based on tonight’s viewing it is easy to agree with the best case projection of middle six well rounded complimentary winger.
If only more Oiler prospects games were nationally televised. Cheers!
Awesome report. Thank you! (Though I wouldn’t consider myself an “aficionado”. IMO, that’s what Wheeler and Pronman are.)
As luck would have it, Shawinigan’s game vs. Victoriaville two weeks from tonight (March 11) will also be shown on TSN. Just hope The Bourg is ready to go by then.
nice report! thx
i’m liking the player types Wright is drafting
It appears the Avalanche were the Norwegian Blue in the 1st period.
3-0 Jets at the end of the 1st…shots 12-11 Jets.
Since then 4-3 Colorado…shots 23-11 Avalanche.
Summarizing:
Of the six healthy prospects to play tonight (Tullio, Petrov, Brind’Amour, Munzenberger, Wanner, Savoie), only one got on the scoresheet.
‘Twas Tullio, who bagged a PP goal in a loss to Kingston. The tally not only extended his goal streak to seven games, he also surpassed his previous highs in goals and points from his draft year. He’s now at 47-28-39-67 on the season.
2-0 Bako over Grand Rapids.
Samurokov with the empty netter. Skinner with the 24 save shutout.
Hopefully he’s with the Oilers sooner rather than later. Manage his work load with Koskinen.
a 250 foot empty netter to boot!
If Mike Smith plays like crap this weekend, recall Skinner and waive Smith for AHl assignment. If he refuses to report – great then void his contract and be done with him.
Per Mike Kelly – the oilers are near top of the league when they get league expected tending so, no, I’m not concerned about 4th most rush chances. The lineup is dominant with average tending:
EDM on playoff bubble..
24 games with expected or better goaltending – 20 wins. Only FLA, COL, CAR win more when getting plus goaltending. Top 3 teams in NHL.
Problem, EDM gets below expected goaltending in 53% of games – only SEA, ARZ, CHI, NJ worse.
Trade deadline approaching
40.
Wonder where they’ve ranked in rush chances the past seven games…?
The team that gave up the fourth most was a different team.
Sadly the team that gets below expected goaltending in 53% of the games is still the same team.
Excellent information
Tullio gets Oshawa on the board with his 28th tally-o of the campaign, a PP marker as he snipes from the slot:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Oshawa_Generals/status/1497393924503228418?cxt=HHwWhMC-7ef158cpAAAA
Ahmed (@NHL_Bouchard) Tweeted:
Frank Servavalli on the DFO rundown says he thinks the Oilers will have a new goalie before March 10th
https://twitter.com/NHL_Bouchard/status/1497338912175390721?s=20&t=PbQv39AD7YN5VDre2mXz2w
How good are the Hurricanes?
Leading the Blue Jackets, who were on heater, 4-0 early in the 3rd.
Shots are 41-9.
4-0 final.
SOG 50-19
Oh my.
Worth noting:
Ethan Bear
TOI 15:50
PP TOI 1:15
SH TOI 0:15
he enjoys these relpies the most .
Almost no one posts at night any more unless there’s a game on. Why would they bother to comment here just to get trolled and read other people getting trolled? So they don’t. Just another brick in HH’s legacy.
Worth noting why?
You’d think he’d get more playing time with DeAngelo out. I guess that’s worth noting.
Duly noted
The draft this season is July 7.
There are 2 Russians ranked in McKenzie’s top 10.
Also, I wonder if there is a possibility that Russian foreign workers (including hockey players) would eventually be sent home. A thought.
Including those in Jr (Petrov) and the AHL.
Sure would disrupt some NHL teams.
Sent home by who, their club teams?
Governments
It’s just a thought I had after I listened to a former US General say that he thinks we are in for a long and bloody war. As deaths mount, images and videos spread, the pressure against Russia worldwide will mount and for governments to do more (maybe), I don’t know if there is precedent for sending home foreign internationals or not but maybe…
It will get more pronounced, those Russian players presence I mean. They will stand out more.
I don’t know, just wondering…sure would throw a wrench into things. We’ll see
I would imagine Russian players already in North America will be happy to stay.
But I certainly wouldn’t draft one.
Depends how much further this could spread.
on the draft picks, surely they will drop at the draft, perhaps by quite a bit.
1-0 Bako in the 2nd over Grand Rapids
B. Malone (11)V. Desharnais, D. Kambeitz
Watching Lavoie and his skating is so much more purposeful now. Speed wasn’t an issue but he didn’t move his feet for a long time. He’s on it now, wonderful to see.
Very quick release he has
Still no Bourg for Shawinigan:
https://twitter.com/Cataractes_Shaw/status/1497345672613404672/photo/1
Relevant part translated into English:
“Bourgault, Canonica, Veillette and Booth are still on the injured list.”
EDIT: And still no Mazura for Providence.
Also appears Chiasson is a no-go as well:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bdnwheatkings/status/1497361346068979720?cxt=HHwWkIC9zb-N2ccpAAAA
BTW, as I am unable to watch the TSN game with Oshawa, comments from those who are watching are most welcome.
Any idea if Bourg is still out with a concussion from WJHC or is it another injury Tarkus?
As far as I can tell, it’s a separate injury. He came back for Shawinigan’s first game following the Q’s hiatus, but left early that game and hasn’t played since.
I thought I saw someone here mention it was an upper-body injury of some sort, but I’m not sure. (Info is hard to find, and not being on Twitter anymore doesn’t help either.)
Right on Tarkus. Really appreciate the Oilers relevant/informative posts on all the prospects. Keep up the quality work!
If I remember right it was a minor core muscle tweak for Borg that was not expected to be serious. I think Stauffer mentioned it after it happened but can’t confirm
Sounds kind of like Smith’s injuries this year.
Skinner starts.
7D for the Condors (they signed ECHL d-man Alex Peters to a PTO, again).
Safin out.
Allan,
I would be genuinely interested to hear your take on Justin Bourne’s article. I know your mantra is not to trade prospects until you know what you have in them. JB is kind of saying the opposite: your organization knows when a prospect is going south before any other organization does.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/why-nhl-teams-should-be-more-willing-to-trade-their-prospects/
To do this the team trading their propect needs to have a solid foolproof way (analytics?) to ascertain that the said propsect is of less value than what they are getting in return. WIth the multiple variables that normally impact this assessment at any point in time, I doubt any GM has the guts to trade good propsects.
Tampa has done it repeatedly.
Seems to have worked out fine for them.
Yup, notice I said they need to have a way to gauge the ‘value’ of the trade accurately – so maybe Tampa has a way to do this. I did not say that this was not possible or was a stupid strategy.
An analytics team would help tremendously.
I’m not a believer that teams have defined ‘windows’
The exist, but they are self inflicted because of reasons like Bourne goes into
There are teams that are active in trying to improve their team by every way available, and that definitely includes making trades that can involve prospects, to get an established player they think will make them better
A team doesn’t have to have elite talent to be champions. A deep solid team with proper goaltending also does the trick, and that depth comes partly from not having to pay somebody top cheddar
The Oilers could enjoy having the luxury of Connor, and also not have to be DoD bad when he’s done or done with us
Draft well, develop well, work the cap well, trade well. And when necessary acquire UFAs well, probably the hardest thing to do
And stay in the hunt long term
Marody is a curious example. The Oilers don’t seem to want to play him, maybe he has no value, but has nobody needed a top AHL offensive talent?
Not a single team, with many like the Krak needing more offense and PP help? Right shot to boot.
Marody, on a league min contract, cleared waivers. Sure, he’s out up a solid season since but his AhL scoring was never in question.
Only after they were a contender. In the building phase, it is a dumb thing to do. In the continuous contending phase, it may be tactically useful.
One is a prospect. If you are getting a bona fide NHL player in return and your window is short, of course you do it. But, the problem is the cap. That has to work. TB has done it, but mortgage their future. But the DoD shows that regardless, you may suck for a while!
Tampa created their future by moving mid level prospects and picks for impact players.
All of Tampa’s impact players were drafted.
The closest to an impact player they traded for would be McDonagh.
This is far from the truth.
Impact players are not just your top line or top pairing.
The Oilers are the prime example of this.
I would point you to the nascent LAK who acquired Arvidson and Danault to fuel their charge up the standings (albeit without giving up much from their sparkling prospect pool) but you can bet Rob Blake won’t hesitate for a second to pull some of those arrows from his quiver to take the next step.
Tampa took their final step when they built an elite “3rd” line and filled out their D with accomplished vets rather than wait for their draft picks to develop. They traded prospects and high picks to accomplish that and that is echoed in the Bourne article.
For example, 5 of Tampa’s top 7 D were acquired by other means than the draft.
LA is far from a sure bet to make the playoffs. They are pursuing the Holland Detroit strategy of spending assets in a vain attempt to stay relevant. It will likelly turn out as poorly for LA, as it did for Detroit, especially with Flattop.
For me only the first round pick is sacred, and that diminishes the later it gets.
Seconds are still valuable, anything after is chump change given the odds involved
I don’t have the depth of perspective of Justin Bourne, but I’ve been advocating for this for years here.
I’ve also been banging on the Oilers need to get better at scouting other teams prospects for ages.
Reinhart for a 16th and 33rd.Most here already knew he was a dud at the time of the trade.
Sakic has been a wizard with these trades.
Chris Bigras for Ryan Graves.
Getting Sam Girard in the package for Matt Duchene.
If I were an NHL GM today, the things I would look to do would be.
Yeah, these are all good suggestions. And Sakic has been a wizard – that Girard trade was genius. So was picking up Devon Toews.
But I think Bourne is getting at the idea of trading your own highly-touted prospects. In particular, trading prospects where the ‘word on the street’ among your own players is that the guy isn’t likely to work out.
I’m trying to think of GMs who have done this well. (Other than, of course, most GMs that have traded with us. We knew how to make Garth Snow look like a genius. Snow trading a prospect like Robert Nilsson might be a good example. Us not trading Rob Schremp might be a good (by which I mean bad) example. Of course, some on this blog wanted the Oilers to activate Schremp for G6 of the 2006 SCF to invigorate the power play. Which goes to prove Bourne’s point that a GM has to be willing to antagonize the fanbase.)
Sam Pollock would throw Chuck Arnason on a top line once they decided he wasn’t part of the future, wait for him to score enough to get noticed and then trade him for another first-round pick. Did it for a decade. Grrr.
A reminder that Colorado acquired Nazem Kadri for Tyson Barrie.
And Kerfoot.
it was a great trade, obviously , as the Leafs totally undervalued a great player (who I wanted the Oilers to acquire), but let’s not leave out important details.
I agree for the most part. The Islanders certainly knew (and Edmonton did not know) about Griffin Reinhart. For me, I think organizations waste a lot of talent by not giving them support. For instance, the group of prospects who played for Woodcroft in Bakersfield, and Nelson’s Barons, are the two runs for Edmonton (along with Claude Julien for a brief period in the early 2000’s) over the last 20+ seasons where the organization really optimized developing the talent drafted for them by scouts.
I think it’s tough to tell from the outside, though. Take Lavoie. He looked like he was drifting early this year, now he’s locked and loaded. Did the organization lose faith? Would that have been wise. From our distance, these things are difficult to know, we can only monitor and then mark the point when they’re waiver eligible.
Thanks LT. Indeed it is hard for us to know all the details.
I’d be interested to read a memoir 20 years down the road, from someone in the know (maybe Craig MacTavish?). But some of these inside stories will, I’m sure, be lost to history.
I’ve always thought exactly what JB stated, that your organization knows when a prospect is going south before any other organization does.
A bit random, but a little shout out to Derek Ryan for getting his season, and career, back on track.
He had a very Kyle Turris start to his Oilers career, but he took a different course after the poor start. He’s been decent to good for a long stretch now.
Going back to December 1st he’s scored a respectable 30 3-6-9, is a plus player (+1 at 5v5), and has great underlying numbers (54% shots, 56% xGoals etc). 60% on faceoffs too.
His PK numbers do leave something to be desired (he had an ugly run with Sceviour in December), but those have gone back to being excellent under Woodcroft (only 9SA and 1GA in 14 4v5 minutes).
He definitely seems to be a useful player at this point.
That’s excellent. That’s more like what we were looking at stat wise when we signed him, I’m happy for the guy.
He’s a really heady and creative player. Just have to use him to his strengths
If you’re going to run Skinner to see what you have for a stretch of games, I think it needs to come after this weekend. Starting this weekend would be nice, but I don’t see it happening.
Heres why:
2/26 – Florida
2/27 Carolina
3/1 Philly
3/3 Chicago
3/5 Montreal
3/7 Calgary
3/9 Washington
3/12 Tampa Bay
3/15 Detroit
3/17 Buffalo
3/19 New Jersey
Smith will get one more try this weekend against a powerhouse team. This really should be his last chance, and we are going on the assumption and more likely event that he will continue to struggle.
So lets say Smith against Florida and then Koskinen against Carolina.
That leaves us 9 games until the trade deadline when we need to make a decision.
If Skinner plays the entire stretch from Philadelphia until Buffalo, that is 8 straight NHL games. He gets a small tune-up with Philly, Chicago and Montreal, and then it is on to the meat of the meal. 3 games in 6 nights against a division rival, and two top eastern teams. If Skinner can stand up to the Flames, the Caps and the Bolts we have our goalie. If he struggles, its time to find a replacement.
Plus it has the fun effect of allowing Skinner his first real chance at the starting job against his old rival Carter Hart, which is just the sort of delicious sacrifice that we need to persuade the hockey gords for a bit of luck.
Bob going through goalies with Elliotte:
MAF—non-starter… MAF doesn’t want to come, Oil don’t want to pay the price regardless
Kuemper–believes COL will stick with him, no longer interested in MAF
Varlamov–good goalie, but is he really available? and at what cost?
Elliotte put Holtby out there as a possibility but he will be expensive too. Halak doesn’t want to be traded as doesn’t have protection. Forsberg is a possiblity.
Elliotte advises Oilers offered a 5th for Jones.
We have Holland surrounded. Holland doesn’t do hockey trades. He doesn’t.
The obvious Holland trade is a Holby rental.
The problems being that they’re currently tied with us in the standings and Gaglardi is itching for some playoff revenue. Also, Holtby might not look very good playing in front of our team.
Funny that Holtby is getting soundly outplayed by a 23-year-old rookie.
https://www.nhl.com/stars/stats
I would say “no thanks” for Holtby, but he’s got a cup ring in the guide and record book, so Holland has him on his list.
Elliotte had him on his list.
No one knows exactly who is on Holland’s list.
I wouldn’t go there either. But literally every goalie under the sun appears to have been discussed.
You might have noticed Anton Forsberg is listed there as well.
Curious why you would say no to Holtby. I like his season to date numbers, but my one concern would be that Dallas plays a defense first system so I wonder if that’s zooming his numbers (especially off his last 2 seasons).
Still, he could be an upgrade on Smith, no?
I think that’s the answer.
He definitely *could* be an upgrade, but he was downright bad for a couple of years before this one.
If you take the 3 year numbers:
Holtby .899 SV%
Koskinen .907
Smith .908
Who he played for has a huge impact on his numbers.
The Oilers give up the 4th most rush chances in the league so I expect he would struggle in Edmonton.
So we’re going to be hearing about rush chances now for the next month lol?
Where does Dallas rank?
Well, when you put it that way, yeah.
If I had to choose between Smith and Holtby to the exclusion of other options and independent of acquisition cost, I’d take Holtby.
Agreed, Holtby will probably look a lot worse on the Oilers than he does on Dallas.
What do you think the price will be for Holtby?
I don’t think anyone’s crazy enough to pay a 1st to rent him. Hopefully Holland doesn’t tell me to hold his beer.
I have no earthly idea. Would a 2nd get him? Will it take Sammy?
It’s why I’d be inclined to play Skinner more right now because we have a decent idea of what he’s capable of (better than Smith).
The question I struggle with is – do you trade for a goalie that is playing good this year (as opposed to last couple of years) or do you trade for a goalie who has been good if you average the last 3 years? Goalies as a rule seem to go up and down except the elite one (Vas / Price types).
I break it down in context for right now
The Oilers are a good roster. They need a better goalie. I think Skinner is better than the others, I’m not convinced he’s quite there yet. Pretty close
My take on Smith and Koski is they both have technical issues. Smith overcame his with athleticism and puck handling. But he’s been injured and hasn’t bounced back
So, for me a goalie with better technique and some track record, and especially a track record of being good in the playoffs will have a good chance to help
The Oilers aren’t a dumpster defensively fire anymore either. Holtby I think is an upgrade. Maybe even Forsberg if he’s more stable in technique.
I also think a goalie playing ‘normally’ helps the team because like how goalies benefit from predictable play in front of them, skaters benefit from goalies being predictable, even if they aren’t perfect
All true.
Dallas is currently 1 point out of the playoffs (with a game in hand).
Why would they move on from Holtby?
Ask Elliotte.
because they are smart?
Same reason why is Nashville trading Forsberg? Because they are smart.
thats why Dallas should move on from Klinberg Pavelski and Holtby. The pile of futures you get is worth way more than potentially squeeking into the playoffs for a few games
Nashville is trying to sign Forsberg but don’t want to pay him more than Josi.
If they can’t they will have no choice.
This is true. And word is Forsberg is not happy that the Preds will not pay him more than Josi.
You may recall Dallas got more than a “few games” in the playoffs just 2 seasons ago.
Home playoff dates are worth a fortune to NHL owners.
A smart team in playoff contention doesn’t trade its only plausible back up.
Bishop is done and Khudobin has been poor in the AHL.
Connor Ingram out of Nashville. He has only been able to get 2 games in the NHL so far. But of all the goalies outside the NHL, he is the one who has earned a chance but has been stuck behind elite goalies. The Oilers should have their pro scouts finding the next best goalie, not the already been there and on the way down goalies. Or we’ll be doing this every year.
I have read your expanded analysis (and I appreciate it and the detail) but I can’t get on board with paying assets for Ingram over giving Skinner a shot. I think Skinner deserves the shot just as much and is every bit as good and ready and with just as high, or a higher ceiling.
What type of message does it send to Skinner if they pay to bring in another AHL goalie with less (and worse) NHL experience?
Folks, I think we have to level with ourselves. If MAF is a non-starter, then we don’t have options. With the *possible* exception of Varlamov, who out there is obviously better than Smith or Koskinen? (I mean by established save percentage over the past three years). Nobody. Nobody. Why would we give up assets for a move that is lateral at best?
Let’s face it – this year is another building year. Kenny will do what he can to fix the goaltending in the off-season.
Remember, hockey is mostly goalie. And goaltending is mostly luck. Holland made reasonable bets in light of his circumstances, and rolled snake eyes.
(Would we have wanted Markstrom at $6X6? This year’s Markstrom, sure. But last year’s Markstrom would have cratered our playoff hopes. Markstrom was one of the most consistent goalies out there, and yet his past two years have been pretty random.)
Sure, maybe one of those available goalies gets hot for us. But maybe Smith or Koskinen get hot for us. (Remember Koskinen at the start of the season?)
Just to add: there is no Dwayne Roloson available this year, not even MAF. Roli had been a .930 platooning goalie for two years, and somehow the NHL had not noticed. The only reason he was even available was because Minnesota’s other guy (Backstrom, I think) was just as good, and Roli was a pending UFA, and the Wild weren’t going to pay two guys starter money. I was urging the Oilers for two months before the deadline to pick up Roli. Miraculously, they did. (It was Kevin Lowe’s one year of good work.)
I don’t think there’s a Roli available this year.
It was actually Manny Fernandez.
Great post.
This is the best evaluation of potential goaltenders that I have read on this site.
The only 2 guys that would be upgrades for sure are Fleury and Varlamov. And we don’t know if either would be willing to come here.
Spector suggests trading a 1st and a Samarukov level prospect for Varlamov. I think that’s nuts. That trade would improve our goaltending, but it would improve the Islanders cap situation just as much. Why should the Oilers have to give up all the value in that trade?
I wouldn’t offer anything more than a Samarukov level prospect for Varlamov.
And I really don’t think there’s a goalie available who is worth the 1st round pick.
Why would the Islanders trade him for less than top dollar?
Their top 4 D is locked in for next season and they don’t have a blue chip goalie prospect in the system.
I can’t think of one good reason they would trade him unless the deal knocked their socks off.
And they don’t have any cap issues with almost $14 million in cap space next season.
I don’t know what the Islanders would want for Varlamov. I’m just saying there’s no way the Oilers should pay a 1st and Samarukov for 1.5 years of Varlamov.
As for the Islanders cap situation, do you think they want to pay Varlamov 5.5 million to be their backup next year? Maybe they would prefer to use that money to improve their offense.
I haven’t read Spec’s proposal, but I’m guessing the assumption there is Koski is included to make the dollars work.
Samorukov by himself doesn’t move the needle for any established NHLer. I don’t think you can get away with even starting a conversation there. They have no cap pressures forcing them to take a low ball offer.
Would you have preferred the 1st and Samorukov for 1 year of Kuemper? (which apparently wasn’t enough)
Yup. That’s exactly what I was saying in my earlier goalie post. A stopgap is pointless waste of assets. Better to run Skinner and fix it in the off-season if one of the top two can’t be had.
@Tarkus, in preparation for tonight’s game on TSN:
https://www.tsn.ca/CHL/video/generals-tullio-fuelled-by-chirps-about-his-dad-pumped-to-face-w~2390880
Good find. Thank you for sharing.
BTW, for those who have cut their cable (like I have), TSN has a day pass one can buy for $8 + tax, and it’s good for 24 hours.
Archibald is going through quarantine before he can practice.
How long is quarantine these days??
He’s not vaccinated so I think its more than a few days.
With that said, even though deemed healthy, it will be a while before he’s potentially activated as he’ll need to skate with the team, etc. for a while before being truly ready.
Bob: One more bad start from Smith, he will expect three goalies next week.
Why one more? This is like when we all could see Tippett should be fired but the word from MSM was if there is just one more bad showing from the team, he is gone.
Here come the Oilers!
I think the reasons are pretty obvious, lol.
At this point, it is almost comical how the team is run. Comical yet tragic.
Exactly. Why do the Oil always need confirmation of a confirmation of a confirmation before they make a decision?
Skinner on the roster is a call I agree with.
Having 3 goalies on the roster is not a call I agree with.
Sure, its easy to send Perlini or Sceviour down for the roster spot but its a half-pregenant response – commit to Skinner and one vet for a period of time.
There is all but zero chance that either vet gets claimed and, if one did, it would be a good thing.
I don’t care about “veteran feelings” or that both Mikko and Smith have families with kids in Edmonton. Those should be non-factors.
Not to mention how goalies hate having three on the roster for logistics (from accounts).
Slap Shot theatrical release was today in 1977, per ON.
I’m surprised they haven’t banned it yet here’s to Paul Newman a classy individual.
I met him and his wife a few times at charity events. They would stand at the entrance and shake hands and welcome every single person attending the event. Complete class act, nicest people I ever met. His daughter had a catering company that I hired a few times, she did my 50th birthday. Apple did not fall far from the tree. She is super nice as well.
Games played in the AHL is a function of the perceived gap versus whoever rellacement level tweener occuplying the 12F/13F in the 23 man roster.
The more AHL games one plays, the smaller the gap versus the replacement level player (in a good way, because it could also mean a big gap below replacement level) in abilities or merits hype (1st rounders or famous college UFA gets more opportunities due to their demonstrated abilities at a different league).
Like the other deployment stats, using number of AHL games to find future NHL players is subjected to “what if the management is wrong”.
The AHL p/g isn’t a predictor for nhl success because it is boosted by pp points, and in most case these call ups aren’t competing in for pp toi in the big. Besides, most tweeners occupying end of roster spots are very close to ppg in the AHL when they are sent down anyway.
Read the rest of the 32 thoughts from OP’s link below. I see that not only did MacKinnon face no supplementary discipline for his slash of the official, but a week before he put Nolan Patrick on the IR with a headshot that the league has also chosen to overlook. Their rationale in both cases is really weak. McDavid gets suspended for accidently catching Leddy’s chin on what otherwise would have been a clean check (he even kept his arm in). MacKinnon hit was part of an interference play where he elevates his shoulder into Patrick’s chin and extending his arm on the follow through. If McDavid deserved 2 games, so did MacKinnon. And those defending the “accidental” slash on the the linesman, hard to believe that MacKinnon is so useless with his stick that he misses Nosek by as much as he did, and his follow through comes way further across than necessary if his only intent was to hit Nosek. I swear, the Stampede wrestling referenced below was officiated more consistently than the NHL.
Oilers rarely get the benefit from the league or the game officials.
It all goes back too Sather and Lowe days. Until these foes are dead or out of positions of power the Oilers will continue to get shit on. It was well worth it when Sather enjoyed twisting the knife slowly on his adversaries
I can’t believe he didn’t get anything for the hit on Patrick
I can’t believe one would think that Kevin Lowe is in a position of power on the hockey side of the Oilers’ org and that the league factors in his role in OEG in hockey related decisions related to the Oilers.
Anyone who wants to see what didn’t get MacKinnon suspended on Patrick:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5OyHJWHf9U
Not that we needed any more evidence but, if it was accidental, who doesn’t immediately apologize to the linesman?
Besides his current team, the San Jose Sharks, the other 3 teams that saw some value in James Reimer?
Florida
Carolina
Toronto
#Analytics?
I can’t rationalize any trade before giving the kid some real reps:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-could-the-predators-trade-filip-forsberg/
Friedman:
13. Ken Holland’s been very clear that he doesn’t want to make a bad, panicky trade for a goalie. In that case, I wonder if there’s any chance the Oilers consider re-calling Stuart Skinner and carrying three goalies. Jay Woodcroft is not uncomfortable using 11 forwards, so it could work. Goalies despise that setup, but Edmonton needs to win games. Skinner shut out San Jose in his most-recent start.
3 1sts for Husso 😘
I guess they could just go get Spencer Kinght or someone if they’re spending 3 firsts.
Woah – 3 Headed Monster Siting:
Dwayne Roloson, Mathieu Garon, Jeff D-D vs. Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner
My boys are huge Godzilla fans. Even they know King Ghidorah is a POS.
They don’t want to put the pressure of this season on Skinner’s shoulders. That’s clear from how much they’re trying to avoid doing so. Now that’s not say that Smith’s play couldn’t force their hand. But I don’t think it is Plan A or B. Maybe C.
Now one could claim that running with three protects Skinner from that. But running with three isn’t real reps either. Not any better than what he has already had this season.
It’s a tough call.
Great to see this in Elliotte’s column though. Means Holly is trying to negotiate prices down.
Skinner has done his time and reps in Bakersfield. Go Skinner and Koskinen 50/50. The load isn’t on either.
I don’t think its about “not wanting to put pressure on Skinner”, I think, right now, its more about Holland finally having his planned opening night tandem healthy at the same time and looking to analyze what it looks like. He’s only had a short period of time to do so (and so far it looks bleak).
I won’t discount completely that they may not want to put pressure on Skinner but I doubt that’s the primary reason and, if it is, its silly in my mind.
He’s a fourth year pro, he’s played NHL games and had success. He’s still a young goalie and developing but he’s at the age and the stage where many goalies are in the NHL, even some legit starters.
I’m not saying give him the 1A job and keep rolling him out irrespective of performance but put him in a 2-man rotations.
There is every reason to think he gives the team just as good a chance to win, or even better, than either of the two on the roster on any given night (and many of the potential acquisition targets such as Georgiev).
Not to mention, this player needs to be on the roster next season and finding out what type of role he’s currently ready for is very important – at least in my opinion.
The load of carrying a team’s playoff hopes is massive. It can’t just be waved away like that. It’s an issue that has been brought up by several in the media. I understand that you remain unconvinced, but I definitely buy it being a factor. And I’ve seen how Holland prefers his development cycles to go. Plan A is to slow play Skins. Plan A however needs a Smith that doesn’t blow points out of the win column. We are likely only a few days away from Plan B.
I think ideally, if there is no white knight, Skinner comes up and Smith goes down. What you tell Smith is “Look man, when you’re on top of your game, you are our best hope. Go get that game back and we’ll have you back up here before you can say Eddy Giacomin.” Soften the blow by giving him purpose and confidence.
Because like you, I am against the three-headed monster.
I’m not sure why a lot of people believe Skinner is the answer? If he was, he’d be playing right now, the Oilers are in the business of winning.
most goalies on the market are lateral moves at best, I’m not sure the goalies out their are better than the ones the Oilers have.
unfortunately for Holland. He’s going to have to make a trade, or summer is the most likely option of getting a goalie.
I know which goalie two goalies I’d target but it is what it is.
He may not be the complete, correct answer. But he can be better than the wrong answer.
Think about it like multiple choice:
1) One answer you know is completely incorrect.
2) One answer you could be fooled by if you didn’t understand a key principle correctly.
3) One answer, if you screw your eyes up and look askew, could be correct. From a certain point of view.
4) And one answer, if you did your homework, studied hard and actually have an in depth understanding of the subject, is 100% the correct answer.
Where do you think we are, or can tolerate? I think Skinner may be #3. The other 2 goalies are #1 or 2 and have been for two years.
We need #4 but can live with #3.
With Katz’s revenues being down this year, I wonder if he CAN tolerate not making the Play-offs.
If they were in the business of winning, they wouldn’t be playing Smith.
not the answer (yet) but G development is a crooked line – he’s been trending well and has an outside chance to be really good. Few G at his stage of development were dominant.
Binnington wasn’t even the 3rd goaltender or in St. Louis’s plans. Management and coaches are sometimes just clueless.
Ken Dryden won the Calder Trophy the year after winning the Stanley Cup. Did Scotty Bowman worry that Dryden only had 6 NHL games before he displaced veteran goaltenders for the playoffs.
Cam Ward was a backup without much of a professional resume.
Skinner has done the time in the AHL.
You forgot Matt Murray, 21 year old rookie with the Penguins in 15/16 (played 13 regular season games) then went on to play 21/23 on the way to the cup.
Can’t agree with the statement “if he was, he’d be playing right now”.
There is every reason to think that Skinner could give the team a better chance to win on any given night than Mike Smith, the way things are currently going.
Its not nearly as black and white as that statement – in my opinion.
LT just heard you talking about Stampede Wrestling. Oh the memories. My Dad was a huge fan and took me to the old Edmonton Gardens to watch some of these shows! Tor Kamata and Archie the Stomper Goldie were some of the best villains! The good old days!
Ed Whalen, the best villain interviewer / foil
Nooooo Chancy Mr. Whalen!
Don’t forget Stu Hart!
I loved the Cuban Assassin.
How about the scariest of them all – Abdullah the Butcher. He was always slicing guys up with hidden weapons.
Archie “TheStomper” Gouldie stomping on peoples heads with those cowboy boots.A big hit in Cowtown.
LOVED Stampede Wrestling. My brother, four years older, would watch with me and then try out the new moves he’d learned on me. Good times! Painful times!
I never thought it was skill either or that the Oil had made the wrong decision on him. But it is tough to convince people whose love for a player outweigh any argument. (Works the other way with hate too, just read yesterday’s thread).
Varlamov looks like the best bet to my eye.
Easiest salary to take. One year to go on his contract.
True starter. Plenty of experience, including 60 career playoff games.
His younger replacement already signed long-term cheap (that’s what Lou does to agents).
You can say NYI effect but he’s played for three teams, and is pretty damn consistent over his career. NYI is no great shakes this year either. They’re seventh out of sixteen teams in the East in goals allowed per game. I don’t think anyone is expecting the .929 save percentage of his best Islanders year, but at least we know he’s capable of it. His baseline looks about .915 with outliers up and down.
If you’re spending assets you don’t want to have to spend them twice. You want a sure thing. No stopgaps because then you still have a problem in the summer to deal with. He’s the surest thing out there, signed for another year.
MAF is older and thus riskier, has a salary we can’t take without help, has no extra year and is almost certain to not re-sign, barring Cup Finals or something. Tough deal to do, IMO.
The problem is both have control of their future. Fleury has veto power accorded to him by the Hawks and Semmy has a 16 team NTC. Fleury looks tougher to get done on this issue too. Although the pull of the playoffs is strong.
Regardless, I think Holly has to go get Varlamov. The only problem is the person at the other end is Lube Lamoriello.
Cap gets easier the longer they wait, which probably has some effect on the timing. I don’t think extending this to Mayfield is do-able. He plays the most minutes against top comp on the Isles’ right side and Dobson’s not ready for that yet. They get those top minutes for $1.45M/a. He can’t be had.
Many pundits have speculated (including Friedman) that we’re on Varlamov’s 16 team no trade list. It would make sense. He’s 33. Russian hockey players, particularly ones that have control over their destination, tend to gravitate to Florida or New York or at least the US.
I would like Varlamov too as I’ve mentioned him before, but I think it’s a long shot.
Lamoriello would also take Kenny behind the woodshed on a trade.
I am pretty sure the two guys I mention are the top two targets.
If the Oil are on his NTC, then that would mean a couple of days ago he would’ve accepted a trade to a non-playoff team. I find that tough to believe.
The clock is ticking on his career and he will want as many playoff shots as he can get.
I don’t find the eastern seaboard argument particulary convincing. Far too may exceptions for it to be a rule. And this guy went from Washington to Colorado happily.
I don’t think this is easy, but it is by no means impossible or even incredibly difficult. Now was it ever going to be cheap.
He looks far easier to get than MAF, and I’d say we’re running at about 75% chance that one of those two is an Oiler in two weeks, with an outside shot at Kuemper.
That’s not necessarily true. Are teams that are of out of the playoffs going to pay trade deadline prices to acquire a goalie? I don’t see.
Also, I’ve read that the Islanders don’t have a lot of goalie depth in their organization, so they’re not in a rush to trade him. They can wait until the next year’s deadline if they need to.
Kenny H. “Hey Lou, what’s it going to cost me to unload Koskinen and pick up Varlamov from you.”
That’s a phone call I’d pay good money to listen to.
Varlamov would be my preferred acquisition among the plausible options too.
One thing to remember about the trade/no-trade lists is that they’re submitted on the summer. So his list could have been tailored to who he *thought* would be contenders, but it surely wouldn’t line up with the teams that have actually ended up in/out of the playoffs.
The Oilers are in LTIR. It doesn’t matter whent hey make a trade. Because of LTIR, the Oilers are NOT accumulating cap space in season.
This is correct and Chris Johnston incorrectly referenced on LT’s show today that timing of a trade matters for the Oilers as acquisitions are cheaper the longer we go (essentially).
The biggest story in the sports world today is, now that Russia has become an international pariah (again), how does this affect hockey at all levels.
I can remember in the 70’s when a Russian would have to defect to play in the west.
A domino has been tipped that cannot be untipped. (any time soon)
Any KHL players going to get the heck out of Dodge and become available to the Oilers?
#StrictlyTalkingSports
Hey ever thought of starting your own blog????
Politics have been a part of sports since the first Olympics in 776BCE.
Ever since the very first disqualification in horse jumping. Man, Ian Millar was not happy about it!
Woody is not Dave Tippett.
Woody knows Skinner better than anyone knows Skinner.
Woody is starting Smith Koskinen.
Why?
Because Holland wants to assess the Smith – Koskinen duo. Roster decisions aren’t all Woodcroft.
And I would imagine Woody himself wants to assess.
Yes, Woodcroft wants to see for himself.
Because Woody isnt the GM. Hard to start someone when they’re in a different league
Holland controls the 23-man.
I have no doubt that Holland has made the decision for the two goalies on the current roster. These were the two he planned on going in to the season with and, up and till very recently, he hasn’t had them both healthy at the same time. I’m sure Holland wants to see his pre-planned duo and asses.
So far that assessment must have poor results.
Whether Jay W. wants Skinner up over the other two is unknown but reasonably likely.
Whether this brand new rookie head coach, if he does want, has also expressed that desire to the Hall of Fame GM is unknown – I would posit its also reasonably likely.
Whether, assuming Jay W. wants Skinner and has expressed that desire to Holland, Woody has dug in with that request with gusto and been over-ruled by Holland is also unknown – I would doubt that is the case.
What a great exercise LT
One variable that should be mentioned is the NHL line up. The most skilled players in the AHL are not always next to get called up as their skills are duplicated in the bigs.
And the minor league coaches/system was as dysfunctional as the NHL Oilers for a period of time.
Man, what an organization
Morning Train
Mourning Train
Peace Train
“‘Cause I’m on the edge of darkness
There rides the Peace Train
Oh, Peace Train take this country
Come take me home again”
Then there is the slow train….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSYzDDlI3WA
Random Thought O’ The Day
Morning Train put me in mind of The Chicago Transit Authority
The Chicago Transit Authrity put me in mind of 25 or 6 to 4
25 or 6 to 4 put me in mind of Saturday (In the Park)
Which lead me to my prediction:
Oilers beat Panthers 6 to 4 and Darnell scores the GWG
What time does the game start?
Put another way, “Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?”
12:30pm eastern. I will be there.
Watched the Pekka Rinne retirement ceremony from last night and was struck by what his teammates said about him (in contrast to what I read yesterday about Mike Smith).
In essence, his style was not to call out the team in front of him for their mistakes, but to focus on his own game and let the coaches do their job. On the podium with him for the ceremony were 3 defensemen (Josi, Webber and Timmonen). Speaks volumes to a classy guy.
Smith could learn something from this.
Not disagreeing with your point, but I doubt Mike Smith would have made the NHL if he took the route of Rinne. Smith has had a career because of his unique skills which include his fiery personality. It’d be like asking Marchand to not be himself. You would have never heard of a small kid from the Q who only scored OK if not for that edge.
Pronger wouldn’t have been Pronger without it, and the list goes on. You need guys like that. I will agree when the results arent there you get into Avery territory.
Fair comment. What drives each person is unique. But as you get older, what was once seen as a positive can become a negative, particularly in dealing with younger kids who will make mistakes. They carry the scars long after.
Maybe the young D you speak of aren’t as sensitive as you may think.
This, and maybe Smith wasn’t “calling them out.”
I was hoping we’d be over this faux drama today. Guess not.
Results changes the narratives.
When you are winning your fiery temper drives the them; when you are losing it is “because” of the antics.
Beginning of last year everyone wrote off Smith and Koskinen. Then by the end of season it was “hey, who would have knew”.
We don’t even know exactly what happened in the game.
Perhaps we can all learn from this… how unfair it is to assume someone’s guilt without evidence.
We do know. Keith Jones was between the benches in the TNT broadcast and talked about what he heard.
No, all we have is Keith Jones saying it was an animated discussion and that Smith gave the defensemen an earful that he didn’t like their coverage in front of the net. That is Jones (one person) giving his own interpretation of the discussion that no one else in the media heard. Jones apparently also said this type of discussion happens a lot between goalies and defensemen. As I said yesterday, maybe Smith was being a jerk, but we really don’t know, since we have no idea what was said nor what Jones’ interpretations of animated or an earful are. For all we know, the defensemen could have thanked Smith for his advice afterwards.
Pitchforks.
John Prine or Sheena E ?
Isn’t the (Holland) sequencing on the goaltending decision making as follows:
Ride the Smith – Koskinen tandem for the next 10 games to see what we have under the Woodcroft regime.
If this ^ fails, decide whether or not to give Skinner a 2 week trial/showcase,
If not, then, based on points in the standings, decide whether to jump the queue and trade for another stop gap (like Reimer) immediately, or whether to wait things out and see who shakes loose at the deadline.
If it fails over the next 10 games it won’t matter.
There are only 11 games between now & the deadline, so there’s not time to do both of those things.
Thank You Bruce. Time flies.
My sense is, if we don’t see Skinner in the 3 games Philly, Chicago, Montreal, Skinner will not be the Goalie leading us into the playoffs, and it’s perhaps more likely that that decision may already have been made.
Do you think he gets a shot? and if so when?
Skinner will not be the goalie leading the Oilers into the playoffs unless everyone else is injured.
Prospecting!
A busy slate with nine (nine! ah ah ah!) Oilers prospects potentially playing tonight, though three–Chiasson, Mazura et Le Bourg–are dealing with injuries and their statuses are unknown.
North Bay (Petrov) @ 5 p.m.
Oshawa (Tullio) @ 5 p.m.
Shawinigan (The Bourg) @ 5 p.m.
Quinnipiac (Brind’Amour) @ 5 p.m.
Providence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Munzenberger) @ 5 p.m.
Wheat Kings (Chiasson) @ 6 p.m.
Moose Jaw (Wanner) @ 6 p.m.
Denver (Savoie) @ 7 p.m.
All times are Ardrossan time.
NOTE: Of course, there are some Oilers prospects playing in Europe (Lindewall, Stampede Rasanen, etc.), but I leave their tracking to others, including the invaluable insights of SwedishPoster. I focus on the 11 prospects playing in the NA college and junior ranks.
BTW, Oshawa’s game tonight vs. Shane Wright & the Kingston Frontenacs will be on TSN:
https://www.tsn.ca/shane-wright-ty-tullio-kingston-frontenacs-oshawa-generals-chl-on-tsn-1.1763941
Thanks for the heads up!
“We’ll chat with TSN Insider Chris Johnston about the Oilers goaltending situation”
~ Situation? What Situation? ~
I’ve read elsewhere that it could be a soft market for sellers at the deadline. Meaning a few good goalies could be available at fair or even discount prices. Does Chris see this as a possibility?
Holloway missed basically 1.5 years during the most critical time in his development as a professional player. It’s a big damn deal.
We’ll see, it doesn’t have to be.
Also, he missed basically half a season with the injury.
If you’re including another half season for Covid, I guess that’s fair, though basically every young player in NA is in that same boat.
I think the only thing holding him back is his wrist Dylan was ready for the pro game last year.
Some of his skills/attributes are certainly NHL read – his skating, his motor, his battle level.
While I have been away and missed the last couple Condors games, I have watched almost all of his pro shifts prior to that and there are definitely some areas that require development prior to being NHL ready – mostly from the redline back and its mostly related to decision making and playing/gaining experience will move those forward quickly.
Not saying he couldn’t develop in those areas at the NHL level but mistakes lead to high danger chances and goals against. I presume the GM, and even the more modern coach that has coached most of his pro games, would like him to develop them in the AHL for a bit.
Man! There is a ton of data/examples in those charts of AHL PPG being a poor predictor of NHL success..No?
OOPS! Sorry, I see you explain it pretty thoroughly further down the post.
During the 2022-23 season the Oilers lineup will likely feature five (5!) major contributors on ELC’s:
Holloway
Broberg
Bouchard
Niemaleinen
McLeod
… with an outside shot we see Lavoie or Bourgault.
That will (hopefully) provide some serious economy and production from the youts.
Captain Nemo came over as an older prospect and signed a two year ELC.
He’s a RFA this summer.
& OP
Good catch on the details.
To OP’s point then we could include Skinner on the list of value contracts for next season
Oh, for sure, Skinner will be a value contract and I would posit that there is a good chance Yamamoto will be on a value contract if he signs in the $2M-$2.5M range – he scores 5 on 5 goals more than any other winger on the team but Hyman (and has other attributes).
McLeod and Niemelainen will both be RFA’s and on 2nd contracts next season.
General point of proving value in excess of cap hit stands though as Niemelainen will likely be near league min again and McLeod in the $1MM to $1.3MM range.