This is the point in the season where we can start to measure progress for AHL prospects. The first few months involve a learning curve and some struggles, but by mid-December young players begin to push for playing time and often have more success. Since several opening night Condors are already in the NHL, it’s safe to say we are looking at some nice splits.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be starting games for the Oilers right now
- Lowetide: How much do the Oilers miss Jesse Puljujarvi?
- DNB and Lowetide: Who says no? Evaluating 25 Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl postgame Q&A
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen is Oilers’ unlikely overnight sensation
- DNB: How did Brad Malone make his way back to Oilers?
- Lowetide: Oilers sign two Condors as procurement window opens.
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (CONDORS 5, CANUCKS 3)
This is opening night (complete boxscore is here) and several names are either in Edmonton or have spent time there this season: Jay Woodcroft, Dave Manson, Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Brad Malone, Cooper Marody and Seth Griffith. That’s a large swath of talent.
The men who remain in Bakersfield (and some who came later) are the group we can look at for improvement in the second half of the year. Dylan Holloway is the best candidate for recall based on second half improvement, but there are others worth noting.
We don’t have a ‘second half’ of the season for Dylan Holloway but he’s clear of the group without the 20 or so pre-Christmas games. It’s likely Holloway’s points-per-game will increased between now and the end of the year, and we might see something close to a point-per-game from this player. James Hamblin and Raphael Lavoie are players who have improved since Christmas and may see NHL time next season. I want to point out Devin Brosseau and Dino Kambeitz as AHL signings who are making progress. I’m not suggesting either man will earn an NHL contract or play in the NHL, but they are useful AHL players who are improving. That’s something to monitor in the coming years. Now let’s look at defensemen, and their even-strength goal differential splits:
I don’t have pre-Christmas splits and the overall totals include only early March games, but it does give us an indication about what is happening with each player on the ice. Philip Broberg is a dynamic player in the AHL, Vincent Desharnais is a terrific AHL defender and has played mentor to many of the kids pushing now. I admit to being pleasantly surprised by both Phil Kemp and Mike Kesselring, with the other three men (Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov, William Lagesson) having already played in the NHL. Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson had a blue factory working 24-7 in Bakersfield. My goodness.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we start at 10. MLB is back, the DH is coming to the National League, we’ll have Steve Lansky talk mlb, Oilers and curling. Crossfire! (pew! pew!) will see Al vs. Sal preview the Saturday HNIC game, plus Matthew Iwanyk will help us understand the CFL draft. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s the weekend baby, don’t forget to change your clocks!
More decisions made with winning not the top priority. It’s clear to everyone Koski Skinner is this team’s best chance at making the playoffs. Yet here we are. Appears Kenny isn’t willing to make the tough decisions.
How would the rest of the team react with a Smith start? Surely nobody has confidence in him. It was a known risk at the start of the year. It’s huge risk now
First Condors game I’ve been able to watch in a few weeks. Wasn’t good. 3-0 loss. Konovalov lets in a stinker from the point, a poor play at the side of the net and an ENG. Condors came out strong in the 1st, but not too much else in the last 2 periods. I did pretty much tune out in the 3rd, such a flat game by these guys, after the first period it was pretty boring to watch.
Konovalov to his credit did make a handful of excellent saves throughout the contest, but in this game it just took 1. Disappointing effort across the board.
I think Broberg is really missed and so is Marody, I felt like there was a real lack of any sort of skill displayed by the defenders. Specifically I had expected to see some growth in Kesselring’s game by now, but he was struggling early just to complete a simple D to D pass. He did improve, and he was playing LD with Berglund (who looked underwhelming), but the entire team had nothing other than a few great chances in the first. Hopefully they get their game back. They are at 5 consecutive scoreless periods.
Nucks lose in OT. Too bad.
Summarizing!
Petrov with a frickin’ “laser” for his 31st goal and Brind’Amour’s EN apple accounted for all the Oilers prospects’ scoring on this side of the pond tonight.
Tullio’s point streak ended at 11 in a loss tonight, though he did get in a scrap as the game was getting out of reach.
Savoie, Chiasson and Lachance were held off the scoresheet as well.
The Bourg and Wanner did not play. The latter was a scratch, though the reason is uncertain.
OF NOTE: wild, jets, Canucks and Vegas all lose!
My goodness.
(Just a joke, don’t do me like that hockey gods!)
Don’t count the Nucks out yet though – they are running a historic PP which, from accounts, might be sustainable….
I can hear HH cheering from here……in a flames jersey for some odd reason though!
Could be heading for a patented HH 4 game reverse parlay here.
would not be the first time. bookies still looking for him as he never pays
I almost forgot about the welch on the C-Note bet.
We never forget!
Might be adjusting goal posts soon! Doesn’t count! Schedule too easy!
They lost. HH 0-4.
A bad night for the Shelter Point hairball.
Lavoie and Perlini on opposite half-walls of PP2 just firing away – those two can sure fire the pill.
Whether Skinner was on emergency loan or not, it looks like there will be no cap issues (no need to even put Nuge or Puljujarvi on LTIR) to activate Archibald and Barrie.
Both Puckpedia and CapFriendly list the Oilers as dropping $1.5M from the cap on demoting Sceviour and Skinner (whether that’s because the websites were mistaken, or Skinner was not on emergency loan in the first place, I have no idea).
In any case, with Archibald and Barrie back, and a 22 man roster (13/7/2), the Oilers will have about $500k in cap space.
Thanks.
If there are no more injuries when Puljujarvi and Nuge are activated, that will open up another $1.5MM or so (less if they run a 23 man roster).
Swapping Smith for Skinner would save $475K as well but…..
Vegas is falling apart right now.
Wild give up goal with 30 sec left and get one point in shootout
Jets are down by 2 in the 3rd
Now time for Caps to beat down the Canucks
2-0 for Washington. Should have never given up on B. Rafferty.
Brogan Rafferty is No. 3 for the Gulls tonight, if you’re watching.
And no. 1 in our hearts.
Brogan Rafferty spent his youth regretting that his parent named him Brogan and then spent his twenties regretting that some deranged Oilers fan decided he was the next Ray Bourque.
There is a Bogdan, Bojan, and a Boban in the nba. Brogan just seems like one more variant. Serbian?
Bosnian Ravioli.
Irish, actually
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
49s
Bakersfield
@Condors
vs San Diego
Holloway-Hamblin-Kambietz
McPhee-Cracknell-Griffith
Brosseau-Espositio-Lavoie
Perlini-Schaller-Kaldis
Samurokov-Desharnais
Niemelainen-Kemp
Kesserling-Berglund
Konovalov
Oilers now 3rd in the division, ahead of Vegas, via P%.
Konovalov starts.
Niemelainen in so Kaldis moves to F.
Sceviour starts his two game suspension.
Brind’Amour gets an assist on Quinnipiac’s empty-netter as they take Game 1.
Ceci and then Woody on After Hours tomorrow night.
Oilers News and Updates (@oilersaccess) Tweeted:
The Oilers will go back to the Royal Blue Jerseys for next season, per Tom Gazzola. This will be Oilers jersey lineup next season: https://t.co/bVtLPxKnvP
https://twitter.com/oilersaccess/status/1502456943029338112?s=20&t=jL1iTJD2a0YP9G4iXyUSpw
The puke on burnt toast orange jerseys are gone.
That’s great news, I never liked the orange. Good post HH, there may be hope for you yet young man!
MacFarlane’s jersies?
Oilers News and Updates (@oilersaccess) Tweeted:
The Oilers will bring back the Todd McFarlane jerseys with a “twist” as their Reverse Retro jerseys next season, per Tom Gazzola. https://t.co/ilLLB4tfPO
https://twitter.com/oilersaccess/status/1501675163888222210?s=20&t=ib_I0cfDvuZ8R9s-9iDLJw
Hate those McFarlane jerseys. Always reminded me of Mad’s Spy vs. Spy.
https://www.liebermans.net/showprint.aspx?sku=p702382
Agreed, not necessarily the Spy Vs Spy part, but I always hated those McFarlane jerseys. I didn’t like/ don’t like any of the mid to late 90’s/ early aught NHL jersey modifications
I thought they were… interesting. Maybe it’s a good twist.
Petrov lights his 31st lamp of the year as North Bay opens the scoring in period 2.
What. A. Shot:
https://mobile.twitter.com/OHLHockey/status/1502454629447213057?cxt=HHwWgoC99c2h5dkpAAAA
Wow!
.
Wow- that was a snipe
It sure was although I’m not sure standing wrist shot goals from the half boards are a translatable skill to the NHL, no matter how great the shot……
That is a goal scorers goal
He might not do that exact thing in the bigs, at the same time there isn’t a player on the Oilers currently that does that
He let the D close, used him as a screen, pulled the puck left while torquing his twig and flicked a laser with perfect accuracy
That’s how Matthews and Laine shoot. If Pete can learn to shoot like that and switch up the release point watch out! Also what the afore mentioned do
My Gord. What accuracy, what release. The kind of skills that translate to higher levels. Thing of beauty, that was. I’ve seen him be real accurate in close but that’s the first highlight I’ve seen displaying it from distance. Incredible.
What was the betting line on the Knights being outshot 16-5 and down a goal after the 1st period?
Second game of a back to back…5th game in 7 nights.
Scheduled loss.
Seems like every night for them these days
Last 10 games:
VGK 4-5-1
EDM 4-5-1
but the Knights are going to trade for Eichel and have him and have an easier schedule and are a lock to finish at the top and blah and blah and blah….
In fairness, the Knights have been dealing with some injuries, including their goaltending ,which hasn’t been a strong point… largely due to the injury problems.
You could switch the word “Knights” to Oilers and it reads just as accurate, no?
You sniffed out what I was implying.
Funnybird was giving HH’s arms a rest. Goalposts are very heavy.
Until the Oilers vastly improve (Goalie and No Yamo in top 6) I don’t think the Classy Oiler fans are in any position to mock other teams
OK, cool.
We’ll wait until a 20-year old rookie with at less than 100% is in the top 6, is that right?
I’ll take my Bragg Creek young man to solidify the top six come playoff time any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Yamo is what prevents us from mocking others?
That and a real Goalie it’s up ⬆️ top.
Better put another “L” up on the big board for Vegas, DSF.
Sure looks like it.
Good thing their remaining schedule is one of the easiest in the league.
Vegas had such a great start, I wonder about that market if they go through a down period. I know you love your strength of schedule but the VGK lost to Buffalo for crying out loud. They’re vulnerable.
An easy schedule doesn’t mean much if you can’t, you know, beat the easier teams.
Vegas could reel off 7 wins in a row and it wouldn’t surprise me. Oilers better make some hay starting Saturday.
Are the Jets 2 points back like predicted?
Did someone predict that?
For all intents and purposes, yes.
2-2 halfway through the second.
Eichel with a goal.
cool story bro
Shots now 22-21 Vegas.
2-2 end of the second.
VGK outshooting PGH 27-24.
Pittsburgh scored- up 3 to 2
Dat HH curse!
it’s real and spectacular ;)…
So how did the game end? You haven’t updated the score for some reason.
Winning games doesn’t matter, only strength of schedule matters!
That’s when the rubber hits the road, so to speak.
Super late notice but is anyone in Calgary interested in seeing Steel Magnolias tonight at 8 – Theatre Calgary?
We can’t make it any more and the tickets will go to waste.
No charge, just need your e-mail to forward them on to.
Vaccination and face masks ARE required.
That’s kind of you! The misses and I would be interested, but we can’t find a babysitter as of yet.
If you do, let me know.
I’m fine posting e-mail if that’s allowed (and you find a sitter) or reach out on twitter for it.
too bad just seeing this now – I would have been a hero. Nice offer
You got twenty minutes……..
Dang. Read this far too late!
Jack Michaels (@EdmontonJack) Tweeted:
Projected lineup vs TB:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
McLeod-Draisaitl-Hyman
Foegele-Shore-Ryan
Archibald-Malone-Kassian
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Koskinen https://t.co/AeUjC3nJ6x
https://twitter.com/EdmontonJack/status/1502350267764801538?s=20&t=mSvk63zteYBQYiHXHN79jA
Just like the Pavelski info, this was posted hours ago.
It’s up at the top now. All good. Plus you can’t complain about HH only posting non oilers stuff
The Canucks continue their diversity push signing undrafted WHL scoring leader Arshdeep Bains from the Red Deer Rustlers.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canucks-sign-whl-scoring-leader-surrey-arshdeep-bains
Side note: Per Gazzola (Tom), Russell was skating at practice.
I had read/heard some rumblings that he may be done for the year so that was notable for me.
Been lazy and haven’t checked the playoff standings in a while. So I take a peek this morning and see we are just in front of … Vancouver. Wait … what? That is not a good look, not a good look at all.
I very much like Woodcroft/Manson as I thought I would, but they arrived smack dab in the meat of the schedule strength.
Vancouver has quietly been on a heater.
21-8-4 under Boudreau and scoring in bunches.
They have the hottest PP in the league since the all star break at over 30%.
Vancouver and Calgary both clearly benefitted from coaching changes. Kenny really needed to make a coaching change much, much earlier. Like after the post-season embarrassment(s). He could have picked either one. I place that squarely on him.
So what you’re saying pp will revert to meat and they will crash again
I have no idea…and neither do you.
Sure you do.
kind of like whenever Oilers pp goes on a heater
30% is somewhat higher than the league best but the Oilers were over 50% early in the season masking how poorly they were playing otherwise.
Not at all the same.
“Somewhat higher than league average” or “top 5 of all time”……?
So what would 50% be?
The Apocalypse?
Wish we had Demko Holland should of drafted the Swede.
The heater just got a little quieter!
so when do you think the league will “figure” it out and it becomes ineffective again 🙂 ?
Also of note…the Jets are playing NYI tonight and could inject themselves into the playoff picture with a win.
They would only be 2 points back of the Oilers.
Of note, Vegas loses.
Of note
they didn’t
Prospectarama!
All but one of the nine teams in NA that house Oilers prospects–and whose seasons are still continuing–are in action tonight. However, The Bourg is highly unlikely to partake of the Shawiningan match that is on TSN tonight.
Meanwhile, postseason action begins for Savoie and Brind’Amour.
North Bay (Petrov) @ 5 p.m.
Oshawa (Tullio) @ 5 p.m.
Shawinigan (The Bourg) @ 5 p.m.
Quinnipiac (Brind’Amour) @ 5 p.m.
Youngstown (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
Wheat Kings (Chiasson) @ 6 p.m.
Moose Jaw (Wanner) @ 6 p.m.
Denver (Savoie) @ 7 p.m.
As always, all times are Wetaskiwin time.
Absolutely love the updates and especially the manner in which they are written!
While The Bourg remains out for tonight’s match, the outlook has improved for him, as he’s now only 1-2 weeks from returning:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cataractes_Shaw/status/1502327791718739971?cxt=HHwWhsC9mdfKq9kpAAAA
Your francais is better than mine. I forget the injury, was it a concussion?
Mais non, je ne parle pas le francais. Alors, je ne suis pas une pamplemousse.
Stauffer had said it was a core muscle issue of some sort, IIRC.
Petrov starts the game as 3LW tonight (not with Coe as his center).
Lol- pamplemousse indeed!
If Savoie is starting playoffs, there’s a chance that his season could be over soon. Would he then sign a contract to finish the season with the Condors do you think?
I was actually just about to make a post if its “uncouth” to almost hope for the Pioneer’s to bow out early?
I think he’s done with college so will play pro. My guess is he signs and ELC starting in 2022/23 and an ATO allowing him to join the Condors now.
He may require the ELC for this season if he wants to dig in and threaten to head back to school for another year.
Just speculation here.
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1502403994416824320?s=20&t=fL03h6vb8cSiQH3KiEJzxQ
Skinner and Sceviour to the Condors. Le sigh.
Brutal. Waive Smith already, f*ck.
Sceviour was a no-brainer and, although I hate it, I definitely saw this coming with Skinner.
I’ve understood what Holland was trying to do with Smith prior – he thinks a Smith performing as he did last year along with Mikko gives the team the best chance at a run.
I get that.
We are simply WELL past the point where its reasonable to think that Mike Smith can be that player this year and Stuart Skinner has earned the shot after Smith has failed in three seperate stints this season.
Skinner makes more sense in the here and now and to provide information for next season.
So terrible.
Is Smith calling the shots here? Not sure how anyone that has been paying attention can think that this is the right move.
I just can’t get behind this decision (Smith). What more evidence is needed to show that the man simply can’t play effectively in a position because his body is failing? This is stunningly bad.
I just read DNB interview of Holland and his position on the trade deadline.
I have to say if I had to pick one thing I liked about Chiarelli decision making was getting Maroon at the deadline. Doesn’t matter if you are a buyer or a seller, there is always opportunity to make your team better – if you are in the game.
You don’t have to line up in the Buyers line or the Sellers line Ken. You can just look to be opportunistic. Maybe swap out one of those numerous defence prospects for a winger, or an NHL player. Maybe a PP specialist is on sale. You can plan for next season.
He keeps stating his actions will be dictated by the standings and he has not explored much yet. That is just to passive for me.
I would prefer if he used his scouts and identified more than just what we need “for playoffs”. We know about goalie and D man. We are trying to win now, it is okay to move a mid or late round pick for a prospect that is being blocked for example and see if they succeed here. We might bump the timeline up, we do have good development system in place.
My point being I wish he was looking harder, not just at the obvious. Be creative, be opportunistic. Maybe he is.
Holland buys or sells at the deadlines and signs free agents in the summer.That’s it.
He’s now 66-years-old. He’s not changing.
I also wish we had a GM that paid attention to the market and looked for deals as they arose or emerging talent. Holland doesn’t like emerging talent. He likes established talent on the decline, vets.
That’s Sprigings and Sakic or Mehta and Zeto. It’s not Holland. Surprisingly, Waddell and Tulsky mostly focus on draft and develop without exploiting other teams much.
Holland apparently does not believe in the concept of ‘continuous improvement’. Having said that, he has stated that he will not partake a high draft pick unless the player coming back has term – in a sense it makes the team better for this year and beyond…
But yes, he is very extremely measured in his trades and is partial to established talent that emerging talent.
I love the type of trades that abound in the NHL for certain teams.
Sakic shopped the cap casualties of the Capitals for years… Grubauer and Burakovsky.
Two second rounders for Devon Toews then sign him for 4x$4.1m.
Those are the type of trades that create insane value for a hockey team. You also get players in their absolutely primes.
You don’t get these discount prices at the NHL trade deadline.
Or in UFA season
I think Holland is poor at deal making and is gun shy
You can be aggressive without hosing people. Pushing a bit can still be win win
Agreed
He’s wasted some picks IMO so he doesn’t have bullets. Adding a pick for Keith, while giving up a decent prospect AND taking on cap. He could have a second and a third in his kitty
He’s hooping himself incrementally. Each 250-500K, each pick uselessly dealt
According to Anderson (Condors new AC) on ON…
Explosive with the puck. Gonna try Holloway on the PK in the games coming up. Obviously still nursing the injury so don’t know if he will be up this season, but you never know.
Holloway is instantly in the top 6 if he’s healthy, he should be up with the big club. I’m definitely questioning Holland’s will to win especially when we see Calgary going Super Nova. Get off the Shitter dial the number to Bakersfield and make our team better for the playoff run.
What part of healthy vs not healthy do you not understand?
You tell me Doc is he physically capable of playing in the NHL today Yes or No.
If he’s healthy enough for the AHL, wouldn’t that imply he’s healthy enough for the NHL?
As he’s been saying since the start, the bone is healed but he still has considerable pain and limited mobility.
To my knowledge, he hasn’t taken a single faceoff, etc.
No, no let’s rush yet another rookie to the show and not just any rookie, but one who is still recovering from an injury that required 2 surgeries and 9 months away from the game.
He’s 20 years-old not some worn down 70 year-old with Rheumatoid Arthritis.
Should we apply that same rational to those who want Mike Smith assigned to the Condors because “he’s not healthy enough for the NHL”? If Smith is healthy enough for the Condors he’s healthy enough to be with the big club, right?
I think most want him assigned to the Condors because he’s showing to be not “good enough” for the NHL, no?
Just what we want, Holloway trying to impress, blocking shots with his palms out.
Ryan Smith lost a mouthful of teeth and returned. Kevin Lowe played with a fractured wrist and some broken ribs. Those were Warriors of the past I’ll take the over that Holloway’s a Warrior.
LT, you mentioned on the show that you thought Nurse needed a partner who was less offensive. It looks like Woodcroft agrees – since he took over he’s put Ceci next to Nurse for 100 minutes in 14 games. The results have been fantastic: http://naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&loc=B&toi=20&gpfilt=gpteam&fd=&td=&tgp=14
I believe that’s the way they practiced today, with Bouchard lining up beside Keith.
Yes. I think Ceci could be cloned and Edmonton would be better, but if he’s running with Nurse down the stretch it gives Nurse a better chance.
A question for the capologists, is there any way that Vegas can get Mark Stone back in the lineup before the playoffs without seeing some of the other contracts go onto the LTIR?
I guess they could
1) trade a bunch of players, or
2) acquire $10M in injured (LTIR) players. Is Pronger still on Philly’s payroll?
Option 3 does not help and its a big myth that it does.
Acquiring LTIR player does create more LTIR reserves to go over the cap but it also increases their cap hit by the exact same amount – its a net zero.
The benefit of acquiring LTIR players in-season is the situation where that player is out for the remainder of the season but could be activated at some point in the playoffs.
Right. Correct you are.
Andrew’s Hair: Nobody is enjoying your trolling but you. Stop.
Dallas Stars General Manager Jim Nill announced today that the club has signed forward Joe Pavelski to a one-year contract extension. The one-year contract is worth a base of $5,500,000, plus an additional $500,000 in performance-based incentives.
Dallas is an interesting case study in contract management. They have some really nice, team friendly contracts and then some of the worst looking contracts in the entire league.
Cool post. Um, you do realize we all have the internet though, right?
Especially as OP had already posted it. I guess blind as well as losing his memory. Lighting not good under that bridge.
Just doing a little research on final wild card points. From 2014 to 2019 in an 82 game schedule, the highest point total needed to get into the playoffs was 97 points. Edmonton is currently at 66. Therefore they need 31 pts to make the playoffs. They’ll need to go 14-7-3, or 15-8-1, 13-6-5 (unlikely), or 16-8-0. Has anyone broken their schedule down to see what that might look like?
Today, Dom has us at a 64% chance of making the playoffs and 95 projected points.
TBL@EDM – L
DET@EDM – W
BUF@EDM – W
NJD@EDM – W
EDM@COL – L
EDM@DAL – W
SJS@EDM – W
EDM@CGY – L
ARI@EDM – W
LAK@EDM – W
STL@EDM – T
EDM@ANA – W
EDM@SJS – W
EDM@LAK – T
COL@EDM – L
EDM@MIN – L
EDM@NSH – T
VGK@EDM – W
DAL@EDM – W
COL@EDM – L
EDM@CBJ – W
EDM@PIT – L
SJS@EDM – W
VAN@EDM – W
This would give them a 14W-7L-3T record to close out the season with 31 points and get them to 97 points and a playoff spot.
I should note that teams have made the playoffs from 2014 to 2019 with less points. All the final wildcard needed in 2016 was 83 points to make the playoffs. But I think the West is too close for anyone to get in with that low a total.
Point totals required to make the playoffs in the final wild-card spot in each conference from 2014 to 2019 from lowest to highest:
83, 87, 88, 90, 91, 94, 95, 95, 96, 97, 97, 97.
Fingers crossed.
Evan Bouchard, in what is effectively his rookie year, is on pace to score 34 even strength points. The last time an Oilers defenseman scored that many was Steve Smith in 1987-88.
Let that sink in for a moment.
If he hits that number, Bouchard will be just the 5th Oilers defender to do so, after Coffey (5x), Smith, Huddy and Lowe (x2).
When they hand him the powerplay next season and he racks up 50 or 60, how much is that second contract going to cost?
Depends on how many years you want. Holland has been pretty good at grinding short extensions from the RFA’s, but in this case it might be better to go long. Get the 24-31 years sewn up at a decent cap hit?
I think so
He’s a very talented player while not being perfect
Doing that creates a lot of cap value through the heart of Connor and Leon’s careers
Do it with Bro as well. JP, Holloway, and any other kid that has NHL tools
They all look wobbly when young
But if you have hockey IQ, size, have control of yourself personally, and can skate at an NHL level the risk of a bad contract is far lower than the risk of capping out and being less competitive as a team
Should they keep Barrie around one more year? He’ll pay for himself.
Not if they want to be a contender
They need experienced size and physicality with defensive acumen to offset the emerging leftorium
The current issues at D aren’t ability as much as balance, roster construction
Even picks for Barrie helps, you have to have them to pay at the deadline, and from next season on that better be what’s happening
At some point if you do things right players have to dealt, and picks need to come back to offset deals
They can’t only go out
Was 95% joking.
The 5% is that keeping Bouchard mostly off the PP for another year could save the Oilers $1.5M or $2M per year on a long term deal.
We live in a universe where things can be good and bad at the same time. Bouchard’s performance this season is creating another problem for next season’s already-thin Cap situation; his $850k performance bonuses will carry forward against next year’s Cap space.
He’s top-15 in both goals and points (ES) in the NHL. I won’t begrudge him the $850k.
Neither will I. I was simply pointing out the issue for next season.
Pavelski re-signs, one-year, $5.5MM.
Great deal for the Stars to get him on a one-year deal at a cap hit that he continues to be value for.
Bob: confidence level with the wrist?
Holloway: weird injury. It’s still pretty painful. Bone has healed but it is bout the tendon and muscle. getting better every day, just have to keep doing my therapy.
Bob: How much of an adjustment:was the AHL?
Holloway: Speed is factor. guys are a lot older and a lot stronger, especially in the corners. Everybody seems to be a step quicker.
Bob: Want about playing C?
Holoway: Probably won’t be taking face offs till wrist is healed better
Bob: what do you need t work on the most
Holloway: in the DZone, I had some bad habits especially taking swings with my skating, been learning to stop on the puck
Thanks Munny. There it is, very unlikely to see Holloway this year.
There’s at least one poster that this won’t stop though.
Are we worried that in spite of his injury, Holloway might be a little shy offensively?
That was the knock on him pre-draft.
0.6 ppg in the AHL for his draft plus 2?
Yamamoto had 0.67 ppg.
Lukas Riechel #17 has 36 points in 37 games in the AHL. (0.97 ppg)
Dawson Mercer #18 has 0.59 ppg in the NHL
At least Connor Zary (#24 Calgary) is at 0.44 ppg in the AHL.
I mean I’m not concerned. He didn’t play for nearly a calendar year and had two separate wrist surgeries on a wrist that still isn’t fully healed
and he is still outscoring Connor Zary, Dawson Mercer and neatly reaching Kailer Yamamoto’s draft +2. With context, its pretty impressive and I think there is still more to come.
Dawson Mercer is at 0.59 ppg in the NHL, not AHL.
Was just taking a look at Andrew Mangiapane’s progression.
Draft #2 – 1.179 ppg
5th round pick
Was mangiapane also sidelined for 9 months due to an injury? Always moving your goalposts to talk smack about oilers prospects/players. One of the many reasons no one respects you.
Wasn’t Mangiapane an overager in his draft year?
I do recall he was a LT favourite.
Still the Flames do have an annoying habit of finding quality players outside of the 1st round.
Yes, Mangiapane was passed over his first time eligible. HH is also using numbers from his Draft +3.
His Draft +2 (normal players draft +3), at age 20, he scored 0.62 PPG in the AHL. Pretty much exactly where Holloway is now.
So I guess Holloway is a guaranteed 30 goal man then 🙂
To your original question, I do think there’s some worry since hopes are sky high mostly based on 23 college games last season.
That said he definitely deserves some slack on results from his first 20 AHL games while recovering from major injury. I don’t think worrying or reading much into his modest AHL production to this point is warranted given the confounds.
Adam Ruzicka being the latest.
4th round 2017.
The fun part of drafting Holloway is stealing someone from right out of Calgary’s back yard!
Mangiapane was half way to 22 when that season started.
Holloway is 20 and doesn’t even turn 21 until training camp.
Good Grief.
Halfway to 22. LOL.
Mangiapane is 25.
When he was 20, he scored 20 goals and 41 points in the AHL.
My point in the original post was that he was a FIFTH round pick
Just so sad. I hope there are meds that help.
Frankly it looks pretty hopeless at this point
As I recall Ryan, Holloway was playing his first year of college hockey so comparing his numbers with kids playing major junior and the fact of adjusting to playing with and against more mature players could skew the numbers. He would also have been adjusting to not living at home etc.
Bob: “Skinner is in emergency recall”
I remember posting quite a bit about Kailer Yamamoto when he was in the AHL in 2019 and how his box-cars under-represented his impact on the game. He was playing on a 3rd line but was an absolute scoring chance creation machine – shift after shift and game after game.
He was an elite AHL player even if his box-cars didn’t quite show that.
Dylan Holloway is the same, in a different way. His box-cars under-represent his impact on the game. As LT says, he seems to touch the puck every 11 seconds while he on the ice and that’s true and not even an exaggeration. He creates scoring chances, not at the same level that Yamamoto did, but he is ALL OVER THE PUCK and a zone entry savant – he battles hard, he wins battles and he never stops.
The coaches speak about certain details and nuances of the game that Holloway is working on – that’s development and its important.
I have no doubt he can impact the NHL lineup today and for the rest of the season. I also have little doubt he can still benefit from some more AHL time – whether its a week, a month or the rest of the season – I’m not sure.
He’ll be in the NHL soon and is going to be real and spectacular.
Holloway interview coming up on Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer
12:30pm for Holloway interview.
Define spectacular.
spec·tac·u·lar
/spekˈtakyələr/
adjective
From all reports within and outside the Oilers org, Holloway’s speed, skill and size is definitely eye-catching. Hence OP using the adjective, you jackass.
I don’t see him coming up this season. Imagine the optics. Oilers bring up top prospect with major wrist pain/coming off serious injury/surgery; prospect takes a big hit a few games in and destroys wrist. Just imagine Craig Button’s face telling this story.
Careful he’s a protected species! 😉
I post details about Holloway’s shifts in a particular game and his impact on the game and you retort by posting the number of shots by an opponent.
I take the time to watch the AHL games and watch these players grow up in pro hockey. You look at AHL boxscores to feebly try and make points.
Engaging in your BS with respect thereto would be disrespectful to myself.
Yama is a driven smart player
When they drafted him I looked at video highlights as I knew nothing about him and was ‘concerned’ about a guy that small
A lot of the goals he scored were him standing fairly alone at the net banging pucks in that he didn’t get there
As it turns out he isn’t an offensive threat in the NHL. That was my worry. He’s still smart, fairly useful, but there are a lot of players that can do what he is able to and are normal sized or bigger. Physicality is a thing, and trying to be isn’t the same thing
I predict a Gagner career for him, brains and a good attitude keep him getting chances, but he’s no top 6 player on a good and deeper team
He also isn’t fast enough for his size disadvantage, his shot is average, stick handling nothing special, playmaking nothing special
I hope they get a decent return for him. Holloway for sure will take his job next training camp if healthy, and for me he’s not what I want bottom half
It will be great to have Archie back in the lineup over the likes of Sceviour.
Can’t wait to get Jesse and Nuge back to bump – that forward lineup, if every healthy, will be AWESOME!
I’ve likes Lagesson’s play, generally, over the last month but Broberg deserves the game over Willie based on the last three.
I understand Mikko starting – 2 days off before this game and 2 days off before the next game and no travel. He’s the man and we need to the wins.
I do wonder who gets the next non-Mikko start. I think its Smith and I HIGHLY disagree.
Will be interesting to see what they do to activate Archie – Sceviour back down likely (he may need to re-clear waivers, can’t remember how long its been) but this Smith vs. Mikko thing is an issue.
Jesse on LTIR, even though he may be ready next week – that would do it as well.
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
28m
Projected lineup vs TB:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
McLeod-Draisaitl-Hyman
Foegele-Shore-Ryan
Archibald-Malone-Kassian
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Koskinen
I hope they get Archie back in the lineup. He would provide a real boost for the Oilers PK. Also, has a knack for scoring empty netters so will help close out those one goal games for us.
Where the blasted hell is Benson!?
BEEENNSOOOON!!!!!
He didn’t play last game and they are adding a forward to the lineup.
An argument can certainly be made for Benson over Shore but its not a no-brainer.
He’s not a centre which I think is the issue there
Glad Kass is back add in Archie, Kane, Foegele, Malone we finally have few players that can hurt you with a check. If this team can incorporate physicality along with the skill they will make the playoffs.
Just so everyone knows, HH is on vacation, so Randle has kindly stepped in.
My two cents? I like the new Spicy Randle.
He’s trying to improve his Posts/60.
Guy was in a really dark place this morning!
Next year should be intersting when a swath of prospects go pro. Tullio and Savoie in the AHL . idk about Petrov and Bourg are they still junior eligible?
Both are eligible. Bourgault because he would be 20 by Dec 31 of next season. He also qualifies by having played 4 years of junior eligibility. Petrov can go because he was drafted out of Europe.
Eligible for junior? Or AHL?
Both
Bourgault will 100% turn pro. He “could” play on over-age season in junior but that would be non-sensical.
Petrov is “too young” for the AHL pursuant to the CHL/NHL/AHL agreement however it doesn’t apply to him as he wasn’t drafted out of the CHL.
It will be interesting to see if they want him back in the CHL or the AHL next season.
From a high level, one might think there is no point sending him back to the CHL but it might be good for him to go back being “the man” on the team with Brandon Coe graduating to pro and gone.
Oz
You’re reply reminded me it was actually Taringa I was in, next to Indoo right?
Lovely spot! Way less flies than Sydney
I Hope they go to the A
Both are good enough, time to step up the comp
Will the Cup be hoisted in Alberta this year?
It’sutterly possible.
Lots of things are possible. Calgary is a good club. Their record says as much. They have a good coach. His coaching record says as much.
Lots of things happen in the playoffs…injuries, goalies pooping the bed, etc…
I wouldn’t be too quick to crown the Flames yet. There is still a lot of hockey to play and There are a few teams in the east and west that might have something to say about Calgary’s progression.
Well if the lightning 3 peat, Point could bring the Cup back to Alberta to celebrate with his friends and family. Anything is possible, except for the Flames winning. Flames suck.
Feeling pretty negative this morning?
That would be a special type of fan pain
Imagine them Cupping again before Connor
Barf
Next years crop of UFA goalies does not look overly attractive.
There are some options, but also watch out for the goalie carousel that happens every year.
10:00 am
Lansky’s Here!!
Turn up the radio,
I need the sports talk,
Give me some more
National League DH? Sacrilege I say!
The “shift” in baseball is epitome of Analytics in baseball ..No?
But is it a good thing?
It’s dumb that they’re banning it, but as a Jays fan I can’t be mad because Vladdy is going to put up Tony Gwynn-esque batting averages by blasting 110 mph groundballs through the infield.
“Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Brad Malone, Cooper Marody and Seth Griffith. That’s a large swath of talent.”
We may be cutting a wide swath, but there is so little grain in the silo.
#ShowMeTheMoney!
It’s all white bread; I’m craving some 12 grain.
I’m not sure I would’ve accepted that deal if I were #80s agent. Great deal for the Oilers though.
May I ask why not?
At this point, Niemelainen is, and remains, a tweener – he’s got a chance but no certainty he becomes even an every day 3LD. I think he can get there but no surety.
This deal guarantees him a full NHL salary in 2023/24.
The chances of him signing a contract for great then that next off season are not great.
The dude just got him and his family a bit of financial security while he continues to work towards a full time NHL career.
Bouchard, Broberg, Niemelainen, Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Berglund, Samorukov, Desharnais, Kemp, Kesselring,
And nary a top pair dman in sight. Development yes….. Success?…perhaps on paper.
Not one of these guys is going to positively affect our playoff run this year imo.
#Impatient
Wow
Who was in that group of 3 with Cody Wild? Do you remember LT? That rule still applies.
Several of these guys will have to be traded over the next couple seasons or they will go away for free. Time to assess and capitalize.
I believe it was Jeff Petry and Taylor Chorney
That sounds right. *hat tip*
Will anybody be surprised to see Kris Russell come playoff time?
#depressing
Hmm are you trolling the blog?
Bouchard and Bear have already played top 4 minutes.
Klefbom, Petry and Nurse (kinda) say hi
Doughtys and Hedmans learn in the NHL
Aside from Bouchard, I think it might be a bit unreasonable of you to have expected any of the others, especially Bear given that he doesn’t play for the team anymore, to have any type of impact on the club’s playoff run this year.
They weren’t projected to impact the big club in a meaningful way and though Broberg/Neimelainen’s play have been encouraging at times they have also been inconsistent while with the big club. It’s a lot to throw on a D-Man’s shoulders the weight that goes with playing in the NHL, much less playing at a crushing level in the playoffs. The Cale Makars of this world are unicorns.
No one ever expects a goalie drafted to immediately jump in and play in the NHL. There is always an expectation that they take 3-4 years of development. So I ask you…Why should it be different for D-Men?
This is a strange post, both in its pessimism and its obfuscation of the truth.
Bouchard has played top pair. Can you call him a top pair D yet? Maybe not, but he is only 22 and D don’t mature until late and definitely don’t peak until they’re in the 27-29-year-old range.
Broberg has played top 4 already and he is only 20! There is a good 8 years until he reaches his full potential.
Niemelainen is not a top pair D and probably never will be, and that’s okay. He’s a great find and brings a great aspect to the team as a bottom pair D. And, guess what? He’s only 23. Still lots of room for improvement.
Bear played a lot of top 4 minutes and a fair amount of top pair minutes. He’s a solid D.
Jones played some top 4 minutes as well. I’m not sure what his ceiling is but it may be a bottom 3 D.
Lagesson is an okay NHL D, but that’s not a surprise. We’re still not sure what Berglund can bring, he’s 24, so the odds of making it are getting slimmer. However, it is his 1st season in N. America so I wouldn’t count him out just yet.
Samorukov has taken some time to adjust to new leagues in the past. I fully expect him to challenge for a spot next season. And he’s only 22, so there is lots of room to grow and he has shown in the past that he can provide some offense, and play top-pair minutes in OHL, and KHL. The book definitely isn’t written on him yet.
Desharnais may not make the big show but he is currently the best D in Bakersfield, and he’s 6’7″, 230lbs, and leading D in scoring down there. He’s been at it a while now at 25, and his hard work paid off with a contract recently.
Kemp and Kesserling seem to have parallel careers like Bear and Jones did. They’ve both shown some solid improvement and have had some good years at lower levels. Kesselring’s 21, and Kemp is 22, so lots of time for them to figure things out.
They have Nurse signed up long term as a #1D. Nurse is just coming into prime D years himself, he just turned 27 last month.
Ceci’s only 27 as well, so they’re getting his prime years too.
Keith, Barrie, and Russell round out the D with some veteran leadership. I like the Oilers D situation. Could they use a #1RHD? Yup. But Broberg on his off-side or Bouchard may be that solution soon. Ceci looks pretty decent as a top pair, but maybe be better suited as a 2nd pair D.
Wait, did you change the meaning of your post while I was writing this?
Bouchard is the only one of these fellas management had pencil to help this year’s squad.
9g 22a 31pts 57gp 20:08 ice time per game, 76 blocked shots..2nd on the team to Nurse.
Your comment is puke on burnt toast, I won’t be going any further as to why.
Absurd statement. Just as an example, Bouchard has played big minutes this year and is a significant contributor. As stated below, Bear plays on a good Carolina team and just helped Carolina knock off Colorado the other night. Broberg is coming along and looks to be Klefbom type in his early development curve. The others have played in the NHL and may or may not have a career. Some will fail, some will succeed. “Success” for a draft pick cannot always mean a top pair defenseman only.
Niemalainen might top out at a bottom pairing defenseman. Thats pretty good value he can provide for the next 5 years as a 6/7D
Bouchard is still a bit green, but shows flashes of being a top pairing Defenseman. He’ll get there and is positively impacting the team already. Remember, the most games hes ever played in a season EVER is 68 when he was 17 in the OHL. This season RIGHT NOW is the most professional games he has ever played in a single season. He is tired and learning the same as BRoberg how to handle that fatigue.
Broberg is a positive contributor to the team already most nights in his rookie NA season. Tons to learn but he’s doing well.
Lagesson, Berglund, Desharnais, Kemp, Kesselring, heck even Sammy aren’t expected to be top pairing Defensemen. If one of them hits as a solid top 4D that is a huge win.
Plus you’re being disingenous when you exclude Darnell Nurse, or Oscar Klefbom or the top pairing D that we have developed and should be on the team.
Randle, Bouchard and Broberg could both become top pair defenders, the floor for both is top 4.
Bear and Jones are gone-diddly-gone so don’t apply here.
The rest were drafted in the 3rd round or beyond. Going by the first google hit I found (https://hockeyanswered.com/what-percentage-of-nhl-draft-picks-make-it-to-the-nhl/), the odds of even playing in 1 NHL game goes thusly:
Round 1 94%
Round 2 70%
Round 3 54%
Round 4 44%
Round 5 34%
Round 6 31%
Round 7 26%
Even if the rest of your list never skates again in the NHL the Oilers have done their job pretty well with defensive pickups.
Now playoff run. First we’ve got to get there. Second, even the teams that are guaranteed to make it, like the Flames as an example, are still talking about acquiring extra defenders “for depth”.
Heck, look at the Flyers paying a fortune for Ristolainen yesterday and the guy is one of the single worst players in the league by all metrics (by the by due to my love of supporting crap sports teams and underdogs I’ve now found myself in the unenviable position of cheering on Risto. I feel like we’re bullying him now). Point is though that getting a hold of top pairing defenders is high by any metric.
Nurse – despite some turning on him is a top pairing defender, or he was last time I went hard into his numbers. Ceci is a top 4 defender. Keith is a top 4 defender (for all that some of us complain). Could we be doing with someone better than Barrie? Sure, but I’d sure say we’ve missed him when he’s been out.
I get you’re impatient, we all are. But the defensive prospects being an issue is an ice cold take. Bring me a goalie, or at least play Skinner, then we’ll see what we actually have in a team. Jesse and Nuge getting back healthy would also help.
And if Foegele has a playoff season like he did with Carolina in 2019 (5G, 4A, +6 in 15 games played), you could say Bear’s development will have positively affected a run this year.
Your expecting 3rd round picks (4 listed), 4th round picks, 5th round picks and 7th round picks (2 listed) to be top pairing d-men?
I would say that both Broberg and Bouchard have real potential to get there and one might even say they are trending that way. Broberg is 20 and in his first NA season. Bouchard is playing his first full year and already greater than a 0.5 P/G player, mostly at evens – he is very soon, if not imminently, an elite offensive producer.
“Why Stuart Skinner should be starting games for the Oilers immediately.”
It may be a week too early to ask this, by why? Why isn’t Skinner in the rotation?
What are the most likely explanations?
#WoodyKnows
Where is everyone? Did I forget to set my clock back?
Spring forward.
Lots of people read this blog but don’t feel compelled to post every thought that crosses their mind.
Often time less is more. A few (here) feel more is more.
Any update on Nuge or JP?
Huge holes with no filler options for either.
Hopefully Smith is IR’d for season now. His deep net play is Swiss cheese for nhl players.
Considering he put up a .923 last season, it’s pretty obvious that the style of play he has been coached to use is not causing the issues.
Some analysts believe the nagging/recurring injury issues are affecting his style this season. ie. He may be compensating for a reduced lack of mobility by playing further back in the net than he did last season.
A “reduced lack of mobility” is an improvement in mobility. I don’t believe you intended to say that.
While nothing you are saying contradicts my point, who are these anonymous analysts? You’d think they’d start with the reduced mobility, if in fact it is. Something one would think would be very obvious in practice, to their goalie coach and in their benchmark testing.
You’re right that I did not intend to say that – goofed on a variation of the a double negative. Only needed one of those two words (reduced or lack but not both).
Kevin Woodley from in goal magazine, speaking with Gregor back in late February mentioned Smith possibly going back to old habits staying back more:
https://oilersnation.com/2022/02/22/early-goals-against-a-concern-for-the-edmonton-oilers/
There is a lengthy discussion of 3rd party observers/analysts (Mike McKenna/Shannon Szabados etc.) of Mike’s form on the blog Oil In Goal, though they only mention they think his form/style have not been right since he returned from injury but don’t get into whether the after effects of the injury are actually a cause of the ongoing difficulty.
https://oilingoal.substack.com/p/its-time-to-move-on-from-mike-smith?s=r
I believe one of the writers on Cult of Hockey also referenced Smith’s injuries possibly contributing to his issues in one of their recent write ups but I haven’t located that.
I guess the real question is what do Schwartz, Woodcroft and Smith actually believe is going on, because they are the ones a) know what’s really going on with Smith’s body (to the extent Smith is transparent with them on how he is feeling) and b) theirs are the only opinions that will determine if and when Mike Smith will play?
That is the real question, I agree.
He seems to be playing a very different style than last year. Much deeper in his net.
Earlier in the week Woody said that Nuge was getting there but not quite day to day yet – still week to week.
He said Jesse was closer and its sounding like he may be available some time next week. Maybe.
As for Smith, he was at practice today (same with Skinner) – I don’t agree one iota but I think he’s going to, yet again, get another chance.
I don’t like it, but I think he gets the next non-Mikko start and i’m dumbfounded at this point.