Darnell Nurse has been playing five-on-five minutes with Cody Ceci more often since the coaching change. In the last 14 games, Nurse-Ceci average 7:08 a night five-on-five, with a 55.6 shot share, 80 percent goal share and 61 percent expected goal share.
Oilers fans who are not Nurse fans might be surprised at the strength of those numbers. Here’s another surprise: Without Ceci, Nurse is hammering at a nice clip during the Woodcroft era. Averaging 10:25 a night away from Ceci, Nurse is 52.6 shot share, 62.5 goal share and 48.8 expected goals.
Nurse is having a helluva season. Those numbers are Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ tells you much the same. Puck IQ also tells us 40 percent of his five-on-five time is versus elites, he’s at 53 percent Dangerous Fenwick (Smart Corsi). Nurse’s contract will get him plenty of rage online (even though it hasn’t kicked in), but if you look deeper, he’s delivering rock solid results. I figure someone should say it every little while. So I did.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be starting games for the Oilers right now
- Lowetide: How much do the Oilers miss Jesse Puljujarvi?
- DNB and Lowetide: Who says no? Evaluating 25 Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl postgame Q&A
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen is Oilers’ unlikely overnight sensation
- DNB: How did Brad Malone make his way back to Oilers?
- Lowetide: Oilers sign two Condors as procurement window opens.
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 2-2-1, 5 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 31-23-4, 66 points in 58 games
The Oilers have been getting steady good news on the out of town scoreboard, with Vegas losing twice late in the week and others around them faltering at least a little. Edmonton is in third place in the Pacific Division today, it’s by the thinnest of margins and a loss tonight to the Lightning would send them back outside the playoffs. Don’t count on it lasting, but it’s nice to spend Saturday in the playoffs.
WOODCROFT-MANSON BLUE (five-on-five)
- Nurse-Ceci: 100 minutes, 4-1 goals, 61% Expected goals
- Nurse-Barrie: 99 minutes, 8-3 goals, 50% Expected goals
- Nurse-Bouchard: 20 minutes, 0-2 goals, 62% Expected goals
- Nurse-Lagesson: 10 minutes, 2-1 goals, 30% Expected goals
Nurse at five-on-five during the Woodcroft-Manson games has been on the ice with Ceci or Barrie most of the time. One pairing is better in suppression (one goal against in 100 minutes is splendid), the other one is running some heavy offensive numbers. Nurse in the Woodcroft era is 14-7, that’s a fine result over 14 games. The top pair tonight (Nurse-Ceci by reports) will be challenged by a strong Lightning team.
- Lagesson-Ceci: 54 minutes, 1-1 goals, 60% Expected goals
- Niemelainen-Ceci: 33 minutes, 2-0 goals, 62% Expected goals
- Keith-Broberg: 31 minutes, 0-0 goals, 67% Expected goals
- Keith-Bouchard: 29 minutes, 3-0 goals, 67% Expected goals
- Broberg-Ceci: 19 minutes, 1-0 goals, 29% Expected goals
Keith and Ceci were the second pair right before injury and coaching changes, so this is the second pair over the Woodcroft games but I’ve used only Ceci and Keith partners. The results are top drawer, the youngsters who stepped in have done well. Tonight is Keith-Bouchard, with not much track under Woodcroft but a 3-0 result. The second pairing needs to be “on” tonight.
- Niemelainen-Bouchard: 42 minutes, 1-3 goals, 50% Expected goals
- Niemelainen-Lagesson: 36 minutes, 2-3 goals, 38% Expected goals
- Broberg-Bouchard: 30 minutes, 2-1 goals, 63% Expected goals
- Lagesson-Bouchard: 25 minutes, 0-1 goals, 73% Expected goals
- Broberg-Barrie: 18 minutes, 1-2 goals, 58% Expected goals
- Niemelainen-Barrie: 16 minutes, 0-2 goals, 30% Expected goals
- Lagesson-Broberg: 13 minutes, 1-1 goals, 41% Expected goals
- Lagesson-Barrie: 11 minutes, 1-0 goals, 74% Expected goals
These are some second and the third pairings through the Woodcoft era, tonight’s tandem in yellow italics. Broberg passing Lagesson and Niemelainen was going to happen eventually, and we don’t know if it will stick, but the revelation of Broberg on RH side is something to keep in mind tonight. I wonder if Lagesson draws in, although Woodcroft will want to see if Josh Archibald and Zack Kassian can impact the No. 4 line in a positive way. I thought Kassian played well on Wednesday.
TONIGHT
The Lightning are a brilliant team looking for a third Stanley in a row and have lost two straight games. They’re going to arrive with a burr under their saddles and it could get ugly. On the other hand, the Oilers are a stronger five-on-five team under Woodcroft (29-21 goals) and that run includes a .931 save percentage. This is a difficult game for Edmonton, it’s the one game in this home stand I have as a regulation loss. If the Oilers win it, fans can start to believe in this team despite the flaws.
CONDORS
Bakersfield Condors played one of its worst games in memory last night, the offense couldn’t do a thing and the the coverage was off. The team didn’t win many battles and couldn’t string together three passes in a row. The cause could be myriad, including a new coaching staff, the loss of Malone, Broberg and others, and the fact Stuart Skinner is in transit. Part of a successful farm team is playing games at a high level and being pushed by teammates to reach new levels. Last night was the first sign of a crack in the wall of development Woodcroft and Fleming built in California. It’s a concern, but only if it continues. The Oilers will be sending help before and at the deadline, Condors need it.
LAK on a B2B have FLA late tonight and then COL on Tuesday for their 3rd in 4 nights.
And apparently will be missing a couple of regulars.
#strengthofschedule #injuryluck
Think about this team with Nuge and Pujo on the 3rd line. In addition to what we have now.
There is so much competition at forward, and they all know how the coach wants them to play. I’ve even liked Shore’s game for a stretch now. The guy is playing 3rd line center and not drowning. Who would’ve guessed?
Defense is the question, but is depth really the issue? From Lagesson to Broberg to Nemo, they have a lot of actual depth. And Kowboy skated with the team today, will be back soon.
Do the Oilers even make a deal at the deadline? Or do they just get healthy?
If they are healthy and everyone plays decently, no. The young D though in a playoff series might get exposed. And a rookie goalie they haven’t played enough to know if the yips are completely settled.
Yamamoto played his best game tonight.
Oilers are 9-5-1 with Manwood.
Yes, those are dimensions…
Attention Harpers Hair!
Wtf happened tonight!?
HH is obviously out enjoying the San Tropez weather he speaks of.
Everyone pulled on the rope together tonight. I don’t think there’s much to critique with regards to anyone’s performance. The PP didn’t make enough hay, but they had tons of chances and were getting pucks through.
Just an enjoyable win from start to finish – I only wish they played like this every night. Hopefully this this just the start of more consistent play throughout the lineup, with Nuge and Jesse back after the deadline to give this team a boost.
I’d like to see a lateral move of Barrie for a more defensively sound D-man at the deadline … not sure there is a dance partner for that kind of deal.
Along with a trade of Smith for Skinner at backup G.
McLeod looked terrific tonight.
When he returns, Pujo will be starting on the 3rd line, guaranteed.
We play LA twice more. Them gonna be huge battles.
It seems Woodcroft manages game scenarios with personnel adjustments better than Tippett. He uses players in specific roles at specific times. Saw two Dmen on the PP near the end of the game. He started the second PP unit once to give the first unit a rest. He took a timeout during a 5 on 3 in the first period. I don’t think Tippett took a timeout before the final 3mins in his tenure as Oilers coach
Adjustment, in-game coaching, who would have thought a coach could perform such black magic!
Back to LT’s article…
When you’re criticizing Nurse, please recall it was Hedman that McDavid walked on the first goal, and Hedman that didn’t get the clear before Connor scored on the PP.
And he’s probably the best defenceman in the League.
Time to trade Hedman for Hellebuyck and a 3rd.
It was also Hedman chasing Leon on his goal – and he actually got there with a good angle but wasn’t able to make a strong enough play.
Excellent post.
Even the very best d-men are but mere mortals (aka human) as Connor blows past them. So, agree with your point…even the best occasionally get beat.
That’s why the failed clear, and the weak play on Drai submitted by OP were included.
There are a lot of guys out there who can walk defenceman if you’re caught on your heels, leaning the wrong way, or skate blades slightly aimed wrong. That’s how much speed there is in this league.
(i.e. it’s not just a McDavid thing)
Please remember that Hedman has a Norris, a Conn Smythe and two Stanley Cup rings all for an $8M cap hit that runs out in 2025.
I think Connor and Drai burning off Hedman last night are more a testament to their skill rather than Herman’s lack of it.
I’m confused by the logic of “you can’t criticise player X because player Y (who’s better) got beat by the world’s two best attacking players.”
Well, you’re the only one presenting that logic, so I don’t understand your confusion.
Please read my post again.
Koski 9-1-2 in his last twelve starts.
What. A. Turnaround.
That’s the key for a lot of kids get off social media. Louie the kids don’t have blowout parties like in your day.
Your Molson Three Stars
Ceci seems like a nice guy. His play has been outstanding lately. One of the best free agent signings by the Oilers in the past few seasons.
It’s been a rough ride but I’m finally at a place where I’m comfortable with Mikko as the mostly goalie.
Liked all the forwards tonight, they did all this without Nuge and JP.
Move Barrie and get Broberg on the right side, and they also need to give us all more Broberg.
Really like how Woodcroft and company manages every second they can of the game. It’s refreshing, as a viewer I hope this sticks around.
Attack all these low end teams coming in like they’re all Tampa Bay. Kane’s on ice POS attitude seems to be rubbing off on the fellas in a good way, he’s been a perfect fit.
While I’d like to see McLeod at center, he’s been first round talent on the wing recently.
I didn’t think it made sense for Archi to be seriously considered, yet if he can bring what he does for home games.. That could be less then ideal but ok.
I’m not sure we see Benson again, if only he was alil faster.
Woody is my Ted Lasso.
Believe!
Oilers still undefeated when scoring first this late in the season!? 18-0 when scoring first! Seems like an unreal statsline! Unfortunately that also means that they’ve only scored first 18 times in 59 games. Which also seems like an unreal stat…
Back in 3rd place baby!!! Hopefully the Oilers winning continues! (Preferably Along with Vegas losing)
Is that the Oil’s best two games in a row this season? Considering the competition…
With Nuge and JP also on the shelf to boot.
Good team wins!
COH will have the confirmed numbers but I believe the Oilers are now 22-1-1 when leading after 2 periods. I’ll remind myself next time I start clenching in the 3rd.
18-0 when they score first
They deserved the win tonight, no question.
But they did their darndest to give it away in the last 10 minutes.
Not a good penalty by Malone.
And I’m not sure Archies big hit was worth the goal against. I’d have to watch the replay, but did he leave his defensive assignment to make that hit?
Have to give a bit of credit to the two-time reigning champions with a mostly healthy squad.
I don’t mind the push back.
Maroon did exactly what Malone did. It just didn’t incite a brawl. I’m fine with the play. I think the extra 2 was a bit much but that’s game management for u…
Elliott with a Vezina performance tonight.
Manwood says hold my beer.
Ryan McLeod – my goodness!
It really has been wild watching him take leaps as his confidence grows. It’s almost like you can see it in real time. Some serious Chem with Leon too. Ya love to see it.
Skill, speed, and quickness. Should be a solid player for a long time.
It’s called “The Quickening”.
Yes Sir. He was impressive😊
Draisaitl also gave Bolts a lesson in fantastic clutch goal scoring…powering down the ice like a tank until the last yard; then all of a sudden he becomes as sensitive as a concert pianist.
Channelling his inner Moose
Koski was great, hopefully he keeps rolling with that
Koski was great again, and has been playing well for along stretch now.
Very strong win…thorough
2 days off, then 3 winnable games against DET/BUF and Jersey…god speed boys
The old Oil would take their foot off the gas for those games. What will Manwood do?
QFT
Best game since Game 6 of the finals in 2006.
Tampa looked like they wanted to be anywhere else.
Never doubted it for a second. Play offss
Uh that’s the result when you have a SHOOTERS MENTALITY.
Please keep Jay Woodcroft.
I believe it’s #extendthewood!
OMG you guys with this wood thing. I think there is a guy for the Devils called Miles Wood if you want to get carried away. LOL
yeah, quit being so childish everybody…:)
Imagine the ineptitude of anything else.
Great team win.
Mikko with another win, another solid win.
You see? He was the only Finnish that they needed tonight.
If that crowd doesn’t pump up the boys moving forward nothing will.
It seemed like Rogers Place was largely a library or mausoleum tonight. No killer instinct on the crowd’s part, like in, say, Nashville.
Well, I was not expecting a W tonight.
What a great effort pretty much (completely?) from top to bottom.
McDavid and Draisaitl delivered.
Broberg carried Barrie.
And Koskinen had an impressively quiet 30 saves game against the cup champs.
I’ve already had a beer, and another. Time for one more!
I’m right on the same pace. Good thing its Saturday coz we’re losing an hour tonight.
This win moves Koski ahead of Cujo for 7th all-time in wins by a goalie. One behind Roli in 6th.
Smith won’t play till Koski loses one or B2B.
Fuck Harry, stop reading my comments lol
Part of me wishes Smith was playing so we could have watched him bail out Archie and take on Sergachev. Would have been a fairer fight.
lol
Should we rebrand Mikko as Kojo (or some such variant)?
Amazing the difference in style, as Joseph was such a clutch goalie and Mikko seems so hot:cold in comparison.
Barrie is making bad pass/clear attempts off his back foot in the defensive zone.
That needs to be eliminated.
A near perfect night on the out of town scoreboard (Ducks got a point and, well, flames) and the Oilers with a hell of an effort and FULL VALUE for two points in regulation against Lightning.
WHAT. A. GAME!
Oilers putting some points % distance between them and Vegas and closing the gap on the Kings (and wild card teams).
What a game for McLeod despite no points.
McDavid near supernova
Leon a great game and a MASSIVE last 10 minutes.
Mikko the unsung hero but very good.
PK HUGE!
Kings had a rough night personnel wise
That’s a shame
-Jerry Seinfeld
Solid win against a good team with all their big boys playing. Full credit. And they deserved it too. How many posts was that??
So apparently Against Tampa, what the fLames can do, the Oilers can do better?
good job oilers!
How was that not icing on the Kane EN attempt?
Yamamoto beat the defenseman to the puck by a large margin.
Yama got there first?
Heck of a team effort! Wooooooot!
This team looks pretty good with a couple of days off…..
Great team win!
I like the play by Kane to try to score.
He’s a goal scorer.
Onto the next one
Yamamoto seals the deal. A well-deserved win. We’re coming for you Calgary!!
Super Performance. What does Hyman have to do to get an empty net penalty call?
YAMAMOTO!!! Empty net, but still.
YAMMMMMM…fry…
suck it TB!!!
Yams!!!!!!
Hahaha
Fitting end to the game!!
Kane to Yamamoto 🙂
Yea Yamo!!!!!
2 games in a row Zack gets hooked with an open net
yes, yes…but neither were penalties
/wink