Chasing Shadows, Moonlight Mystery

by Lowetide

Midway through the radio show yesterday, I spent a couple of minutes contemplating what this morning’s post was going to look like thematically. I’ve been listening to general manager’s talk about building through the system for decades, followed by incredible overpays in free agency.

It occurred to me after the Brett Kulak signing that Edmonton’s management was having a strong day, the only thing this team needs is the young unproven kids to fill the holes. Not necessarily in a lead role, although Philip Broberg may play some prominent minutes, Stuart Skinner looks to be getting 30 starts and Dylan Holloway could be thrust up the depth chart on the wing. Folks, the Oilers are close. If the kids are alright? Music!

THE ATHLETIC!

POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT LINEUP

This roster is $123,000 from the cap. I’m uncertain of the RFA contracts, but it isn’t certain all three men will be on the roster when training camp begins. Give Ken Holland and the management staff credit, adding Jack Campbell, Brett Kulak and Evander Kane while retaining enough money to sign the restricted group is quality work. I don’t need to remind you of the frustrating free-agent seasons of the past, where money left early and often. Overpays for isolation pay and signing with a second division team were commonplace.

The keys to this season will be healthy veterans and productive youth. If Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod can take on significant roles, this Oilers team could go a long way again.

WHAT’S LEFT TO DO?

The RFA’s must be signed, I expect it’ll be somewhere between $6 and $7 million for the trio but the two men who are arbitration eligible will have a say in it. Edmonton doesn’t have $7 million to spare this morning, so there will be movement one way or another.

I think Jesse Puljujarvi could still move, but am pleased the organization has kept him due to low offers. I assume the same is true for Warren Foegele and it may mean the rest of this gang is going to fight it out for playing time next season in Edmonton. If that is the case, and no additional talents are added, I like Puljujarvi’s chances of playing on one of the skill lines again. I’ll add this: As much as I am a fan of Kailer Yamamoto, it isn’t at all clear to me that Puljujarvi should be the outsider on right-wing. Another year in competition with each other might aid the decision on one (or both) as a long-term investment.

I think the Oilers may add around the edges now, there’s plenty of room on the 50-man:

Matvey Petrov’s contract could slide should he go back to junior, but it’s clear sailing for several additions if the team decides to add. I’d recommend a few NHL free agents, some college grades and a couple of CHL eligibles too.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

Another big show, 10-2 today on TSN1260. Chris Johnston, TSN Insider, will help us with the first day of free agency and the early day two news. We’ll talk CFL Week 6, including the Elks in Montreal tonight. We’ll talk British Open (someone stole the lawn mowers!) and the Jays firing their manager. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Reja

Fuk Calgary, Fuk Sheehy the rat, Fuk Peplinki the piss off shit that was scared shitless of Mr.Semenko. Lefty McClelland would lay a Lickin on any Flame and they knew it. Anyone that feels for little Johnny boo hoo, getting out of loser Calgary that had to steal a franchise from Alanta at 2:23 AM. The losers that hosed Willi Plett because he had to much moxie for the mediocre Flames.

kgo

This organizational depth is likely helping ol Dutch at the negotiating table. Barrie helps him from overpaying Bouch at this time. Fanti puts downward pressure on Skinner’s extension…having Nurse and Broberg made Dutch less desperate in the Kulak signing…PJ and Yamo likely compete against each other and put downward pressure on their contracts…having RNH locked up robs McLeod of negotiating power…too often I’ve seen our GM negotiating from a desperate spot…he knows it, the agents know it, it gets ugly

FabioRoberto

Well put!

Munny 2.0

This is the list of RHS Dmen left available as UFAs:

John Klingberg
Anton Strålman
P.K. Subban
Michael Stone
Greg Pateryn
Alex Biega
Paul LaDue

Out of the LD who can play the other side the only real options are Russell and De Haan. So not real options.

I’d say Holland clearly has a plan that differs from trading Barrie for cap space and signing a replacement.

Does this make Foegele the more vulnerable? Or are they trading Barrie and running with another Bako Dman up here, Bro on his off side and Koekkoek?

Gotta be Foegele.

TheGreatBigMac

There are still 6 UFAs in the range of Foegele who can be had for just money and likely less money. Not sure who’s trading to get him right now.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2023/caphit/all/leftwing/ufa?stats-season=2022&limits=age-15-30,gp-30-90,pointspergame-0.3-0.5

jp

This is true, but 3 of those 6 weren’t qualified by their teams at $1.1M or less.

While the scoring is similar, it’s probably fair to say Foegele brings different elements than some or all of those UFAs, and is a more valuable player.

DieHard

I think the D is set. Trade Barrie next off season to pay Bouchard. The rookie D get another year. Need to trade Foegele to sign our rfa’s. Trade deadline is key for us next year.

Munny 2.0

I’ve been curious about Noah Philp since Bob raving about him on his show. I used to go to a couple Bears games a year when I lived in the ‘Chuk and I was both surprised and pleased a player was good enough to earn this opportunity.

Well, damn.

I mean I know he’s going to be 24 but, damn. If he collects a cup of coffee next Spring it would not surprise me.

Jake Chiasson has pretty fine hands and vision for a 4th round draft pick. Real pity he did not get to play a full season, I wonder where he might be at now. He hit Petrov in flight a couple of times and then was wheel man on a nice passing sequence with Kesselring and someone else.

Kielb surprised me. Very fluid game and recognizes danger well. Kesselring was outstanding. Kemp solid.

The lack of creativity in Maatta, Eernisse and Brind’Amour was pretty evident. I thought Ernisse played the most noticeable game. Engaras put himself in some good spots in the OZone. Read well off his linemates.

You can see why Schaefer wants to work on his first 3 steps and his edges. You can tell his brains want him to try more than his feet can really handle. The missed PS probably the best example. He relies on versions of the toe drag a little too much but I was surprised to see him go to the backhand a couple times in tight, including said PS. Really good work rate. I mean no one has a motor like Hamblin, but every shift had 200 foot effort.

Petrov was the star of the Junior forwards though. He relies a lot on his speed and I wonder if that will bite him in the ass in the long run. You have to be really mothereffin’ fast to consistently use speed to beat people in the Bigs. That said he was everything you could ask for… fast, dangerous, head always up, good vision and awareness, quick shooting hands, and could take and give a clean hard pass with aplomb. cheated for O a couple of times and got burned but I’m not entirely sure that’s a knock in this format. It was pretty full-pn pond hockey.

OriginalPouzar

Thanks for the write-up, good stuff. I’m still overseas in Africa until the weekend so didn’t get to see the steam.

Too bad Bourgault and Holloway didn’t get to skate at camp – of course, those two would probably stand-out above the rest (or they would have been expected too).

Savoie mentioned he had a bug that kept him off the ice – good to see he was able to get in to the game.

Philp and Savoie each got a cup of coffee in the AHL – a very small cup but both likely had an eye-opening experience as they were clearly still in University and NCAA mode and not really “in the play” – Savoie in particular.  That cup of coffee, and being around the pros for a stretch, should prove invaluable as they head in to off-season training.  Philp is older so he’ll probably be able to “compete” more consistently but I do see these two as having up and down seasons in the AHL.

No surprise to me that Kesselring stood out – I thought he showed real in-season development and starting to show some puck moving confidence in the 2nd half.

Kielb was a revelation when he got called up to the Condors – he may be the next guy to earn an NHL deal if he can continue that progression.

Munny 2.0

Philp, Hamblin and Tullio were the most dominant line in the game. At one point hemming in Team white for a long stretch. when it got down to 3 on 3… well it just wasn’t fair, lol. And that was with White having Kesselring and Kielb (deployed apart mostly).

Munny 2.0

The Sharks have now named their prospect scrimmage the Marchment Cup and have bought an actual Cup in honour.

northerndancer

Oilers prospect scrimmage should be called the Matt Hendricks cup. Comes with dented cup.

dunterpunter

lol

Munny 2.0

We could have maybe used Jordie Benn.

jp

Thanks for the Dev Camp updates Todd and everyone else.

Whoever gave you a couple of downvotes earlier must be in a sour mood and should feel great shame.

Munny 2.0

Just reading through them now and I’d like to second both JP’s motions.

Also nice to see it’s archived on YouTube.

The link again for those just tuning in like me…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=XVZmmwDG-Ek

defmn

You’ll be pleased. The guys you want to see put on a show put on a show. 😉

Munny 2.0

Dammit where the hell do I buy a program in this joint?

AMD

Heinen, Motte, Janmark, and Aston-Reese could be possible picks for the Oilers

Last edited 2 years ago by AMD
Gerta Rauss

Gregor mentioned Calle Jarnkrok in his piece earlier today

Jarnkrok always seemed to hit the scoresheet against us when he played for Nashville

I wonder if offering a contract to some of these guys on July 15 would have some appeal – most of these depth players could find themselves looking for work in the 2nd week of September.

They might have to take a haircut on their previous contract, but knowing you have a deal in hand as the summer starts must have some value

Munny 2.0

Bob mentioned Jarnkrok today too.

€√¥£€^$

I was concerned that Savoie may have injured his left foot or ankle after a good, hard defensive play by Schaefer, who caught Savoie easily as he carried the puck out of his zone and into the offensive zone.

Prior that Schaefer has his second penalty shot/chase, but he was caught from behind by under the radar overage USHLer Joshua Eernisse. 6’3” 205 forward with great wheels, but no offense (he scored in this game).

Last edited 2 years ago by €√¥£€^$
€√¥£€^$

I saw Rodrigue bad, his rebound control was poor. I saw him as the clear #4, in terms of performance. Fanti was the clear cut #1, IMO.

Todd Macallan

Definitely agree. I’d have Jonsson as the clear #2 tonight behind Fanti also.

OriginalPouzar

No surprise on Fanti – although he’s only got 1 pro game under his belt, he’s the most mature prospect and, around the time of signing, reading the scouting reports, etc. there was at least one that suggested he’s not far from NHL ready.

If he’s “going to make it”, it will likely start in the next 15 months, I would think.

Todd Macallan

Savoie Hamblin Philp all looking dangerous together. 6-6 now, really ramped up with the last 10 mins 3 on 3 haha

Last edited 2 years ago by Todd Macallan
Todd Macallan

Schaefer narrowly misses on a penalty shot as his backhand deke trickles thru the crease behind Jonsson. Quirk in this game is the PS is a live play with the other team chasing, so after the miss Schaefer proceeds to race all the way down the ice and strip Savoie on the backcheck from behind, negating a 2 on 1. Very impressive play.

Last edited 2 years ago by Todd Macallan
defmn

For pure skill it had to be Petrov. Schaefer did not look out of place.
Fanti looked good in goal.

It was hard for me to tell who was making the defensive plays since the game calling was, as should be expected, not that clear as to who was doing what and hard to tell on my little MacBook Air.

There was some speed on the ice though and, of course, near the end the older more experience guys took over.

Last edited 2 years ago by defmn
Todd Macallan

Philp just flying and pokes it past the dman for the breakaway and nice finish. Right after Tullio pounces on a turnover for a goal

Todd Macallan

Woah, hands from Schaefer! What a nice deke in close after a nice pass from Petrov left him all alone.

Todd Macallan

Holy, Petrov with a beauty blocker side wrist shot after dancing into the middle from the side boards. No chance for new tendy Jonsson on that one.

Todd Macallan

Really nice glove save by Jonsson off fellow Swede Engaras

Todd Macallan

Schaefer with a terrific defensive play in the neutral zone then just narrowly misses the pass from Chiasson on the ensuing 2 on 1. Really nice stick by Schaefer there to cause that turnover

Todd Macallan

Jonsson with 3 really nice saves in succession. As advertised he is huge, but seems pretty quiet and smooth in the net.

Tarkus

Seeing The Bourg’s teammate C-A Lavallee good. Just as I say that, Tullio zips one past him, screened though, then Philp beats him on a breakaway.

More fun with captions:

Philp –> Filth
Woodcroft’s –> Would cops
Brind’Amour –> Brenda more

Last edited 2 years ago by Tarkus
Todd Macallan

Had to jinx Lavallee didn’t you haha. Tough with the 3 on 3 now tho.

Todd Macallan

Lots of goals now Chiasson with a nice pass to Hall leading to a goal then Chiasson with a blocker side rocket thru Rodrigue

Last edited 2 years ago by Todd Macallan
Todd Macallan

Fanti continues to look great, stops Savoie on the penalty shot. Then Savoie rifles one home next shift on a nice drop pass from Tullio.

Todd Macallan

Fanti with yet another great stop on the Philp breakaway.

Kesselring has also looked very noticeable with his skating and a huge hit at the end of the period. Also hit a crossbar on a nice move.

Tarkus

Tullio’s drop pass finds the stick of Savoie, who promptly deposits a twisted wrister past Fanti to close the cap to 3-2 for White.

Love the captions for some of these players:

Hamblin –> Hamlet
Lachance –> Lil Champs
Munzenberger –> Months and Burger

Last edited 2 years ago by Tarkus
Todd Macallan

The nicknames write themselves! Far more creative than the typical hockey ones.

Todd Macallan

Tullio picks off an early pass from Hudson Thornton and get a good chance. May mean nothing but Tullio is playing center tonight

Todd Macallan

Fanti looks great early against the more experienced team Blue. Schuurman with a great shit 2 on 1 but was stoned.

Todd Macallan

Schaefer quiet in his first couple shifts but does not look slow at all amongst thus group.

Edit: as I say that, rushes up 2 on 2 and gets off a bullet curl and drag wrister thru the d man that is stopped by Rodrigue.

Last edited 2 years ago by Todd Macallan
Todd Macallan

Lachance is a mountain, scores against Rodrigue on a partial breakaway 5 hole.

€√¥£€^$

Other than that play and one other before goal, LaChance was completely invisible. Not a surprise, he will play a 2nd season in the USHL before heading to BU.

Todd Macallan

Shot* haha

€√¥£€^$

Johan Larsson is a target of interest to me.

Strangely Friedman reported him signing with Pittsburgh and Hextall denying it…

Last edited 2 years ago by €√¥£€^$
Munny 2.0

I don’t think he’s going to get paid a contract Holland can afford.

jp

I was thinking that too, but his last deal was only for $1.45M IIRC (and in Arizona). He seems to have missed half the season with injury too (have not looked into that at all). So he might be cheaper than you think.

And the more I think about it, I’m guessing 2 of the 4 Oiler ‘trade candidates’ get traded. Aside from replacing Barrie with someone at $1.5M or less, no other single player traded gives them any breathing room (that is, enough to do more than fill out the roster with mostly players under $1M).

Being able to offer $1.0M or $1.2M to 2 or 3 FAs rather than $800k could make a big difference in this market.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

RNH and E KANE both at 5.125, I thought it was a bit of a shame that HYMAN (5.5) couldn’t come in at the same number. It would make for a nice balance amongst the best supporting forwards.

Then my wife reminded me HYMAN must have a broker’s fee. 🙂

Redbird62

The spread between Hyman and RNH is also a function of being able to sign Nuge for 8 seasons while only being able to sign Hyman for 7. Dubas, before the UFA deadline, was trying to get Kenny to send Toronto a 2nd and in exchange Dubas would sign Hyman to a lower AAV contract for 8 years then send him to Edmonton. Kenny didn’t bite, feeling the few hundred thousand per year in cap savings at most was worth a 6th round pick, which Dubas rejected and got nothing. Of course also Nuge took a significant home town discount as well. He likely could have gotten north of $6 million for 7 years had he gone to market last season.

dangilitis

Do explain. I am very curious about what is being insinuated

Last edited 2 years ago by dangilitis
Chelios is a Dinosaur

It was merely a little joke suggesting Hyman gets more because he draws ex Leads to the team but it clearly didn’t land as intended.

€√¥£€^$

For those interested in watching Oilers Prospects, the Billy Moores Cup is on at 6:00 pm, Hairy Hills time.

The link is here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZmmwDG-Ek

Roster List and Numbers;

FORWARDS (21)

54 Bourgault, Xavier.
46 Brind’Amour, Skyler
61 Chiasson, Jake
42 Eernisse, Joshua
49 Engarås, Filip
38 Hall, Adam
59 Hall, Justin
57 Hamblin, James
45 Kambeitz, Dino
70 LaChance, Shane
62 Lavoie, Raphael
60 Määttä, Joel
52 Nash, Ty
43 Petrov, Matvey
72 Pierson, Jackson
47 Philp, Noah
49 Savoie, Carter
53 Schaefer, Reid
39 Schuurman, Brayden
68 Tullio, Tyler
40 Young, Colton

DEFENCEMEN (12)

92 Dorey, Noah
81 Dowhaniuk, Keaton
82 Dowhaniuk, Logan
84 Ganske, Noah
76 Kemp, Phil
85 Kesselring, Michael
90 Kielb, Darien
51 Munzenberger, Luca
79 Thornton, Hudson
83 Vinnel, Zach
88 Wanner, Maximus
78 Wright, Charlie

GOALIES (4)

50 Fanti, Ryan
34 Jonsson, Samuel
33 Lavallee, Charles-A.
35 Rodrigue, Olivier

*I double-checked the numbers before posting, but I transcribed to here using just my phone, so they may not be accurate.

Todd Macallan

Borg and Lavoie will not be skating, they were taking part in the off ice stuff only unfortunately.

Outside of the obvious studs (Petrov, Savoie, Tullio, Schaefer) I’m most excited to see Chiasson, Munzenberger and Wanner (who Stauffer noted has been impressive in camp so far), the new goalies Fanti and Jonsson and the undrafted Thornton and Schuurman.

Sure seems like im excited to see most everyone. Let’s go!

flyfish1168

It is a shame Halloway isn’t here

kgo

Thought experiment:

If Nurse hadn’t agreed to an extension and wanted to test free agency….what would he have made yesterday on the open market?

Who would we be pursuing as his replacement with $9.2M extra to spend?

kgo

And why the hell is Zack Werensky getting $9.5M?

Ancient Oilers Fan

Werensky signed that contract a week before Ñurse, as did Seth Jones.

What would you have estimated market value for Nurse at that time?

Munny 2.0

We could have had Gudbranson AND Chiarot for that kind of money.

What on earth was Holland thinking?

😉

Tarkus

Friedman says D. Strome is headed to the Caps:

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2385330

Jordan

Can someone provide some context on the Josh Norris <8M x 8 year deal? Looks like an overpay for a player that has one 50+ point season… Do the Sens think he’s Leon or something?

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Was going to ask the same thing.

Redbird62

He is one of the young stars on the team. It is 55 points in 66 games, including 35 goals which led the team, as 22 year old, playing in only his 2nd full NHL season. He is a first round pick. That $8 million today is similar or even a slightly lower % cap hit to all the $6 million deals the Oilers handed out a decade ago.

The problem for Ottawa will be how do they deal with Stutzle and DeBrincat next year. Stutzle so far is better than Norris and he is 2 years younger, and Debrincat’s qualifying offer next season is $9 million, $2.6 over his cap hit. They still have to add 5 players to get to 23 on the roster this year, and while they have $11 million or so, Formenton and Joseph, two of their yet to be signed RFA’s if they want to keep them, deserve decent raises.

godot10

$8 million isn’t what it used to be. Cumulatively probably 20% inflation since Draisaitl sign his contract in the real world. And now that inflation is running near 10% with very little sign of slowing down, the AAV number has to be far more discounted on an 8 year deal.

Redbird62

Just as a straight up apples to apples comparison, Leon’s deal when he signed it was 11.33% of the cap, while Norris’ deal is 9.64% of the cap and both signed right after their ELC’s expired though Leon was one year younger. In relative terms using NHL inflation – Leon’s contract was worth 17.5% more than Norris’ deal.

Trying to compare salary cap growth expectations that any team or player had then or now, a function of Hockey Related Revenues, is too complex to assume CPI is the only driving factor.

godot10

Inflation was 2% when Draisaitl signed his contract. Inflation is 8-10% now. Discount future cash flows (salary) at 5% for 8 years vs 2% for 8 years (assuming inflation comes down a bit, which may not be a good assumption, because once the inflation genie is out, it tends to run hot…moderate inflation usually is not a thing…inflation tends to be low, or tends to be high, because inflation is inflationary).

Redbird62

I doubt discounting is a big factor in the average salary offered by management/ownership. Most teams are spending to the cap every year. For the players it might help them compare a 7 year deal to an 8 year deal, but a lot of other things go into that decision as well.

Even if discounting has an influence, inflation is not a discount rate, but interest rates (and expected returns for equity) are. Inflation influences interest rates and vice versa. However, US treasuries have just returned to the level they were in 2017 and every other discount rate is a spread on that. Corporate bonds have also risen back to there 2017 levels. Risks on mortgages are perceived to by higher, so they have recently risen above their 2017 levels but no where near the inflation spread. Attempts by government to curb inflation may cause interest rates to rise further, but right now discount rates do not seem to be appreciably higher than in 2017.

Last edited 2 years ago by Redbird62
geowal

In follow up to some fun on this blog with Calgary Puck, I wandered over to the Blue Jackets blog, jacketscannon.com.

obviously quite happy with the deal, but also annoyed at the universal reaction of it being apparently a bad decision by Gaudreau. And also picked up that the Jersey folks had already stitched his jersey up practically.

one little line:
Kekalainen: “We can finally get rid of the bullshit that this is somehow a bad destination, a bad city, or whatever.”

Pretendergast

This is big for the city of Columbus as a destination just like Duncan Keith picking Edmonton. Well respected players willing to go to the ‘bad city’s’ helps a reputation.

Depends on the player too, not every player acts like the Spittin Chiclets cast.

pts2pndr

Calgary offered Johnny Cockey above market and he went to Columbus! Has the Sutter shelf life become real in Cow Town?

Scungilli Slushy

I think a big part of all of this is the realization dawning on flames came that their star player has secondary interest in hockey, and so their team

He’s a lifestyle guy. He’s so naturally talented if things aren’t hard he’ll blow it up. If it is hard, not as interested. Stays perimeter. Might get hurt and miss shopping day

His choice and great that he’s stupid rich from his talents. I want players with that type of engagement nowhere near my team

Capt Kek might find this doesn’t work as he wanted. He seems to like the engagement optional types. Panarin Dubois Laine …… Gaudreau

pts2pndr

If you’re a Lifestyle guy Columbus is not where you would go given the big apple, Southern California etc. something poisoned him to Calgary! I don’t think it’s the city so maybe the coach!

Reja

By the time these players are UFA’s they’re married and starting family’s. The Wife has a big say on where their going to live and raise kids. Also as we found out with Janet that she had her own dreams she was chasing and a quest appearance on SCTV or the Beachcomers didn’t cut the mustard.

106 and 106

The only way to get cap space is:

1) Trade Tyson Barrie ($4.5)
2) Trade Warren Foegle ($2.75)

Seems like something else has to give, doesn’t it?

norm2015

next year or deadline 🤔

TheGreatBigMac

Most likely trade Puljujarvi, basically JP has to decide if he wants to be an Oiler. If he does, sign for a bit less and maybe Kenny does something next year, when more cap opens up.

Munny 2.0

They want a player back for Pujo. That doesn’t sound like cap space, if it happens.

kgo

Lucic could retire and free up another $750k off our books

Scungilli Slushy

Hopefully Holland feels inspired after his successes

There aren’t any physical D left UFA, so that important piece (as I see it) has to be by trade

Side

What’s Campbell’s stick handling like again? I can’t recall.

Average?
Good?
Great?
Never uses it?

I won’t miss Smith’s overeagerness to play the puck and fumbling it resulting it going into the back of the net, but it was nice seeing him send Connor McDavid on some nice breakaways…

Offside

I truly think there will be an adjustment to a goalie who cant handle the puck like Smith. Thankfully, we got our replacement in the offseason where they can use training camp and exhibition games to adjust

geowal

Self – caused / own goals were >>>>> McDavid breakaway goals. But they were fun when they happened.

Offside

The team seemed to like his playmaking abilities. If they didn’t, he probably would have reduced them. Hence, by some metric – the players thought they had a net benefit

Redbird62

Some people may not miss him handling the puck, but the Oiler defensemen will – a lot. Besides helping the team set up for the breakout better, he saved them a lot of wear and tear of not being hit by forecheckers while they tried to recover the puck. Here are just a few numbers from the playoffs per naturalstattrick:

Series R1 R2 R3 Total
Edmonton D being hit 86 58 42 186
Opposition D being hit 143 77 72 292

All 4 teams in question were around 20-22 hits per game in the regular season so its not about style of play.

This discrepancy in hits on D has a meaningful impact on the games and Smith is probably the key contributor to the much lower Oiler numbers. Not enough, by itself, to overcome some of the other team deficiencies against Colorado but Smith playing the puck was an important part of the Oilers system.

Since he will be under LTIR and still under contract, Smith might be around to tutor Campbell and Skinner. Maybe not to fire up passes, but at least stop the shoot ins and get it to the D in a good spot.

Last edited 2 years ago by Redbird62
Side

Awesome, thanks for this. I never really thought about the wear and tear factor like that.

kelvjn

Whatever happened to “making lots of hits mean you don’t have the puck a lot”?

Redbird62

Not sure I buy into that cliche. In the regular season, the median team for hitting came in at 22 hits per 60. In the playoffs, the median hits per 60 was 36. And of the final 4, Colorado had 36.87 hits per 60, Edmonton 36.40, virtually tied with Tampa at 36.39 and Carolina was at 32.09. Clearly, good possession teams can hit a lot since 3 of the final 4 were above the median for the playoffs.

There is not one formula to win a cup. In the last decade, (LA, Washington, Tampa and Colorado won with lots of hitting, Chicago and Pittsburgh hit a lot less than their competitors, while St. Louis was middle of the road on hitting.

Besides just looking at total hits, you have to look at who is being hit and where. Dumping the puck in, forechecking and hitting the defenseman behind the net or in the corners is a deliberate offensive strategy to both regain the puck and wear out the defensemen. If a lot of the hits are being racked up by the defenseman or even the forwards in their own end, it is more likely they are in chase mode.

Scungilli Slushy

I often thought the puck handling messed up the breakout even if it saved hits

The Avs had the winger pinch the boards and no dice for us. Smith neutered

They’ll miss Keith’s passing for sure, he’s really good at that

dessert1111

Gregor mentioned in his article today thar the Oilers have their core locked up for the next 3 years. When reviewing the list of players, it aligns perfectly with what LT and others discuss as the core positions of a team, with the caveat that 3 of these spots are filled by guys who are currently RFAs and under team control.

Kane (4) – McDavid (4) – Puljujarvi (2 – RFA)
Hyman (6) – Draisailt (3) – Yamamoto (4 – RFA)
RNH (7)

Nurse (8) – Ceci (3)
Kulak (4) (or Broberg) – Bouchard

Campbell (5)

Plus McLeod as likely playing a major role and being an RFA.

For better or worse, the team is locked in for a few years and we should see less movement than we’re accustomed to for a while, with more the non core players moving around. It’s also noteworthy that none or the players who do not occupy one of these key positions have more than 2 years left on their deals (Barrie – 2, Foegele, Ryan, Shore, Koekkoek – 1, the rest RFAs or tweeners).

Randle McMurphy

For Better!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Hot take alert: although I am happy he retired, I think the Oilers will miss Keith’s outlet passing.

Bulging Twine

yes, he had the quickest of quick-ups. Accurate, good quick processing speed.

but he seems happy as does his son, God bless him

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Does this Oilers team score 300 goals?

Pretendergast

I’ve got them in the 280 range, notably with Kane at 35 goals and 20 for Nuge and a small bump to Bouchard at 15. Alot of career years would need to happen but they are definitely in the range.

jp

I’ll say yes.

They scored at a 313 goal pace under Woodcroft (and with Kane). And 285 as it was, so not far.

They’ve definitely got a good chance to.

Pretendergast

Keeping the positivity train rolling, I like that last year we were saying this was the deepest forwards group since 06. Now it is deeper. As LT said on the radio today, the time to improve the defence is not when their contract asks are highest (Chiarot). We need to let other teams lose a bunch and get them for deadline (Brendan Dillon should be a hard target) or from a cap strapped team (Toews). Goalie is goalie so fingers crossed, there will likely be ups and downs that by Smitty comparisons will look consistent.

I dream of a line of Holloway-Mcleod-JP. That could be a top 10 fastest line in hockey in time.

Randle McMurphy

“Chasing Shadows, Moonlight Mystery”

You’re ghost writing Hardy Boys books now?!?

#RenaissanceMan

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

With you being a Stone’s fan, It “befuddled” me that there was no reference to “Goat’s Head Soup” this week.

DevilsLettuce

Nurse/Bouchard
Broberg/Ceci
Kulak/Barrie
Truckelainen

If Barrie continues under Manson the way he has, no reason to move him unless it’s part of a bigger deal.

I like it, Samu may be 7th, may get plucked.

Feels like Holland does have something lurking in the water.

Barrie, Foegele, rfa, picks for bigger fish. Maybe it will be to some degree

Kane/McDavid/Kane
Strome/Drai/Hyman
Holloway/Nuge/Yams
Heinen/Ryan/Shore

Feels like something more is brewing.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

What on earth would Kane McDavid Kane do to the Pacific division?

Randle McMurphy

With that line, you’re no longer on earth, You’re somewhere in the upper atmosphere.

I’m watching for Ken to hold a slush fund in reserve (maybe LTIR $), with the reason/excuse that it is to pay Bouchard and others next year. and then BAM! Patrick Kane at the deadline!

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Thought experiment: all three together, healthy, through 82 games…

P Kane: 45-85
C McDavid 55-115
E Kane 55-45

conservative?

Randle McMurphy

80’s Oilers Time Machine.

LMHF#1

McDavid surpasses 200 on that line.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

So conservative then.

OriginalPouzar

With the team in LTIR, this isn’t something that is practical.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Thought experiments are tools used to bypass practicality.

N64

Definitely far above the altitude of Denver. That’s the McEverest / K2 line.

OriginalPouzar

Broberg playing tough minutes with the team’s top righ shot shut down guy seems aggressive. Not to mention, Holland has specifically talked about Kulak getting 2nd pairing reps and they are excited to see him in that role.

Also, with Nmeo being waives exempt for one more year, I think Sammy has the inside track on him. Not to mention, he’s also the higher ceiling and, well, higher skilled and broader-skilled player – he’s simply better and also very aggressive.

Randle McMurphy

Man that’s a whole lot of scary.

Who would best support Kulak in his rise to full time 2nd pair? Ceci?

Samorukov had the worst NHL debut I’ve ever seen. I think you’d have to run 7 D to squeeze/ease him into the lineup.

OriginalPouzar

Sammy’s 3-minutes in the NHL are an absolute non-factor at this point.

Its notable that, after Sammy was sent down, for the remainder of the season, he was the Condors’ best overall d-man (in my mind) – better than Niemo, better than Deharnais.

kgo

I think Playfair’s handling of that game was one reason he was turfed alongside Tippet. He got burned by Kyrou who also won the fastest skater comp last year….should have given Samorukov another shift to redeem himself.

Redbird62

Samorukov was given 4 shifts for a total of 2:28 in ice time. In those 4 shifts, the other team had, per naturalstattrick, 4 shots against, 4 scoring chances against, 3 high danger scoring chances and 2 goals against. Cult of Hockey had him with a major mistake on both goals against.

Jim Playfair and Tippett, besides trying to win the game (they came back to make it 3-2 then St. Louis scored a PP in the third), probably understood he was already overwhelmed at that moment and throwing him back out there to potentially make another mistake was not in Samrukov’s, the team’s or their best interest.

kgo

I can’t deny your logic…but look at the results….The team lost that game, both coaches are unemployed, and Samorukov’s development and confidence hit a brick wall…gotta roll the dice and let him work through it in that situation.

Mesmer

If you can find it, take a look at Klefbom’s first few shifts in the league. If they were better, it wasn’t by much. You can’t decide Sammy’s fate on 90 nervous seconds

kgo

What if we had a pairing of Brogan and Broberg?

tcho

Well the first guy was a lock for the Norris. That is, before he got traded to Edmonton. Then? Insta-trash. The second guy was drafted and developed by Edmonton. So? Megatrash. Trash + Megatrash = trash. Sorry to burst your bubble.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

The whole “they didn’t improve from last season,” comes with a few asterisks in my view.

First – Kane is without question an improvement from last season. He came mid-way through and while fire barely got past his “transition time,” period.

Second, building on one, players normally take time to get accustomed to where and how a new team plays. This year all of Hyman, Ceci, Kane, McLeod, Kulak, Skinner, Foegele, Ryan, Holloway and Broberg will be in year two with the Oilers.. We can quibble on Foegele being on the opening night but its important to recognize that this season will see the smallest amount of roster turnover in probably close to a decade. Familiarity should help overall performance. Lets hope that we get JP and Yamo back as well.

Three, expecting year over year improvement from players is normal as long as your expectations are normal. If you expect that year over year improvement for Holloway means 25 goals on 18 minutes of ice time that’s heavy. But expecting him to play say 70 games and with his NHLE hit say 10-12 goals isn’t crazy. Now if we multiply this thinking across our lineup all of a sudden things start to look pretty rosie without being unreasonable which brings me to.

Four, this is the most offensively talented team the Oilers have iced since the mid-1980’s. The best offensive teams in the NHL going back decades usually have seven or more players pushing the 20 goal mark (as long as the injuries aren’t too severe or numerous I think you can say “on pace for 20” here as well.) The Oilers have six guys I’d bet on today to hit 20 – McD, Drai, Kane, Hyman, Nuge, Yamo. If you were to squint you could add say two more to that – JP and Bouchard. After the squint we can ask – well what is McLeod’s outer marker? I saw that man pass up more than a few opportunities and his ability to play at speed makes me think there is another gear there. What about Holloway? All of a sudden there are a lot of goals available to score and its not a given that it is clustered around CmD and Drai. The thought of three guys chasing 50 is dreamy. Unlikely but dreamy.

Now you always have to ask yourself – where is the risk? The risk in my view is still in goal. I like Soup, I like his backstories and its harkening to see that he too is a Grinder. I like that. But he hasn’t played a lot of NHL hockey and neither has Skinner. I’m ok with the bet but here is the risk. Similarly, this year has a big injury risk on the backend, but that is always sorta there. Part of the reason I don’t see Barrie leaving this year is cause of the injury/rookie risk out back. Bouchard and Broberg should improve this year, but it might not happen in a straight line.

Defense and goaler are risks but mitigated ones given the age brackets of each, the skill coming up in Bouch and Broberg and the fact that everyone of those players have had to Grind their way to these roles.

This is a damn good hockey club.

Shane

Great post!

Reja

Calgary fans are really bashing Johnny Hockey. I hope Johnny knocks it out of the park in Columbus and I’ll be cheering for him. I’m taking great pleasure in Calgary’s misfortunes it was funny how Button was trying to spin it in a Calgary management favour. Next up laughing at Hrudey and Cassie on them trying to spew the Tkachuk and Magpie scenario’s to the second rate fans of Cowtown.

Last edited 2 years ago by Reja
Randle McMurphy

Jockey Hockey earned his UFA status. Calgary had a GREAT year and Brad Treliving chose to keep the band together for what he hoped would be a cup run.

If anyone is responsible for that decision turning out bad, it’s not Johnny; It’s Brad AND IT’S US! The Edmonton Oilers!

HUZZAH!

As an Oilers fan, Johnny couldn’t have landed in a better spot. 🙂

Side

I hope people are reasonable and don’t start going after Johnny’a wife:

“More from Johnny Gaudreau on his decision to leave #Flames: “It was a hard decision. Calgary was a great place to me and my wife. But in talking to my family and talking to Meredith, it was the right move for us. That’s all I can really tell you guys.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/WesGilbertson/status/1547635912238018562?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The more I read into the situation and the tidbits coming out, I wonder if Meredith had some better career opportunities in Columbus compared to other places cities.

Can’t really fault the guy for going somewhere where both he and his wife can pursue their careers, collect millions of dollars and not be hounded by fans all of the time.

What a bizarre turn of events though.

Last edited 2 years ago by Side
The Trade Guy

Ohio? Career opportunities in the land of misery? This whole thing is really weird (and funny)

Side

It’s pure speculation, but Meredith is a nurse with a pediatric specialty. Apparently Columbus has some good children’s hospitals.

But again, it could have been an absolute non factor in their decision to go to Columbus.

I just did not know she had that kind of career background until the trade and found it interesting and could possibly help make sense of Gaudreau’s decision. Cause it is definitely a doozy of a choice.

I will love hearing more nuggets coming out as time goes on.

OriginalPouzar

Friedman tweeting the flames are not in on Kadri.

That’s almost too bad given the overpay on AAV he’s going to get for a career year (and term for his age) but, really, what’s their plan?

Munny 2.0

well he’s discussing that very issue on ON right now

defmn

Is Monahan expected back this coming season?

Munny 2.0

He was supposed to be ready for training camp when they originally packed in his season. Same surgery as his other hip the off-season before and he made it back, so I’m guessing he will return again.

And he’s pretty untradeable and can’t be bought out while on LTIR. It is possible though he stays on LTIR for the season. Considering his wont to play through pain and injury that doesn’t seem likely however.

ashley

It’s going to be a tall order for Campbell to perform as well as Smith did. I realize he’s younger and better looking so everyone likes that, but the reality is that Smith bailed us out of many disasters. This defence remains a work in progress and a goalie’s SP has so much to do with the quality of chances he is facing rather than some intrinsic magic in his own game.

TO is not strong defensively and gives up 10 bell chances just the same, so in that sense, I am optimistic that Campbell will be able to at least perform average here. Kuemper would have been a disaster. Beware of the FA goalie coming from a strong defensive team with good stats.

tcho

I respectfully disagree. Smith was an adventure in net during his time here. At times formidable, at times forgettable, in almost equal measure . If we can get more consistent tending, I’d be happy.

Tye

That’s literally the exact way Toronto fans describe Campbell’s last season… just saying.

Randle McMurphy

this is not true.

While Toronto fans are not a monolith, they generally loved Jack Campbell and were very happy with his play, outside of a one month stretch where he played poorly (injury related) last season, from which he bounced back.

How did he look to anyone here in the series against Tampa. I saw him as very good.

pixel-bender

Yeah, I disagree as well. I’m a huge believer in analytics, but they didn’t tell the full story on Smith.

He allowed a lot of goals that NHL goaltenders should be expected to stop. That he stopped a high danger scoring chance later in the game doesn’t make up for that.

NHL goaltenders need to stop low quality shots. NHL goaltenders DON’T create high quality scoring chances against. And NHL goaltenders stop a high percentage of high quality chances.

Smith came up short. So the Oilers found themselves down early when they shouldn’t have, and then had to deal with another “iffy” goal against after scoring their way out of a deficit.

Receiving NHL goaltending consistently will make a world of difference.

jp

He allowed a lot of goals that NHL goaltenders should be expected to stop. That he stopped a high danger scoring chance later in the game doesn’t make up for that.

Not saying he was consistent (he was not, game to game).

But Smith was actually above average in making low danger saves. Last season he was tied for 19th in LDSV% (of 48 goalies with 1500+ minutes played). He was 9th out of 51 goalies (>1000 min) last season.

He was even better on HD saves (8th of 51 and 10th of 48), but it’s simply not true that he allowed a lot of goals ‘that he should have stopped’, at least compared to other goalies around the league.

pixel-bender

Again, I’m a big believer in analytics — I’m just questioning their current ability to accurately measure goaltender performance on their own.

Woodguy often notes that analytics should align with the eye test — the numbers are a tool to be used along with watching the game. If one is telling a different story than the other you need to ask why.

In the case of goaltending I don’t think the numbers alone are able to fully reflect performance. Is a scoring chance really a scoring chance? Is an easy save really all that easy? What influence does the team’s style of play impact those numbers? Who is making the decision at each game? How much variance is there from rink to rink?

Watching the games I saw a lot of low / medium danger shots go in early — and there’s little disagreement on the importance of scoring first.

Lowetide often referred to Koskinen as an adequate NHL goalie due to the numbers. But watching the game you saw a goaltender that would consistently let in shots other goalies would stop.

Watching Smith, you see an athletic goaltender making some spectacular saves — but also letting shots in from the outside, or through his legs, or retreating deep into his net without cause.

I don’t think Campbell will challenge for the Vezina, our steal games consistently. I do think we can expect a more consistent level of performance — that we as fans won’t dread every potential scoring chance.

And that’s an improvement. A big one.

jp

There’s no question analytics miss things and are imperfect, but I think one of the easiest things to measure is what a low danger shot is. By definition it comes from far away. I guess it could be screened (so classified as a LD shot, but not actually a LD shot), but if it was tipped that that would reflect as a shot from the location of the tip (so it wouldn’t end up being counted a LD shot).

In any case, there’s not that much room for error in interpreting a what a LD shot is (mostly it’s a from beyond the circles), and also that it’s not something that should end up in the net.

I can’t speak to early shots going in. Perhaps someone can or has verified that happened with Smith more than most goalies, perhaps it’s an error of the eye test. But as I said, Smith has been well above average at stopping LD shots overall.

Incidentally, the LDSV% numbers do show Koskinen had an issue letting in lots of shots he shouldn’t have. They pass the eye test there.

Here’s the numbers for Campbell, Smith and Koskinen over the past 2 seasons (this is among the 55 goalies who played 2000+ minutes over the 2 seasons).

Overall SV%
Campbell ,916 (10th of 55)
Smith —- .919 (7th of 55)
Koskinen .901 (40th of 55)

LDSV%
Campbell .974 (2nd of 55)
Smith —- .971 (11th of 55)
Koskinen .953 (52nd of 55)

MDSV%
Campbell .919 (4th of 55)
Smith —- .903 (25th of 55)
Koskinen .903 (25th of 55)

HDSV%
Campbell .802 (43rd of 55)
Smith —- .841 (5th of 55)
Koskinen .808 (38th of 55)

So Campbell does appear to be a different goalie. He’s truly elite on LD and MD shots, while Smith was just good-to very good (Koskinen shows quite poorly here).

On HD shots Campbell is quite poor though (as is Koskinen). Smith in contrast, was elite or close to it.

You may be right that Campbell will be a net positive because he more consistently makes the routine saves (and I hope that’s true). But I don’t think it will be as big a plus as you and many others do.

Numbers tell us that Mike Smith was anywhere from above average to elite when he was healthy over the last couple of seasons. If our eyes are telling us he was a major problem, then maybe ‘you need to ask why’.

Randle McMurphy

Great point Ashley.

Hopefully Jack is more durable than Smith. I would also like to see one more significant add on defense so that Campbell is not asked to make up for “rookie” deficiencies on defense.

Pro’s and Con’s; Con: I’m really going to miss Mike Smith’s stick handling. Pro: With the new situation, we get to give Stuart Skinner the opportunity that he has earned to start 30 games in a season.

And great point about a new goalie coming from Toronto vs a stronger Defensive minded Organization. This view served us well with both Ceci and Barrie as well.

I think that Campbell will get the teams full support in terms of us getting timely goals when needed.

No matter how well Campbell plays, there will be rough patches along the way due to gaps in our defense and the fact that other teams will be “getting up” to play us. The key will be to avoid any long losing streaks, while this team gains it’s footing. I wouldn’t rush to judgement until after the all-star break; You know, until after Connor, Leon, Evander and Jack get back from the 4 day weekend in Florida on February 4th 2023. 🙂

Material Elvis

The one aspect of that argument that never holds water is the fact that two goalies on the same team can have wildly different save percentages.

Oilers: Smith – 915, Koskinen – 903
Ducks: Gibson – 904, Stolarz – 917
Canucks: Demko – 915, Halak – 903
Rangers: Shesterkin – 935, Georgiev – 898
Capitals: Vanacek – 908, Samsonov – 896

That’s just five teams where the save percentage is markedly different. Same defense playing in front of both goalies.

jp

Do TO and Campbell next.

jp

OK,

21-22
Campbell .914
Mrazek .888
Kallgern .888

20-21
Campbell .921
Andersen .895

meanashell11

Not to mention the back up typically gets the weaker advisory.

Reja

Smith record in OT the last 2 years was 1W-5L and 8W-13L overall. Bring on Campbell and Skinner with open arms.

Mesmer

That stat can’t be right. Smith had two assists in OTW’s late last year – against St. Louis and San Jose. I say this with full recognition that Koskinen was the OT guru last year. I also think Smith got us to OT in a few games we had no business getting points in.

Redbird62

I think he is referring to playoff OT games, not regular season.

jp

8W-13L overall

I’m guessing the only goalies (who’ve played more than a handful of game) with winning records in the playoffs last 2 years are Kuemper and Vasilevskiy.

ashley

Yes the SP are different, but this actually makes the argument rather than disproves it. Teams use their backups against weaker competition. The very competition that a weaker defense can limit 10 bell chances.

It’s far more nuanced than you are implying.

Material Elvis

That doesn’t make sense. If teams use their backups against weaker competition, then why does the backup tend to have a lower save percentage? Shouldn’t it be the opposite? And what about the shitty teams for whom there really is no weak competition? The Ducks, for example. Big discrepancy in the goalie save percentages there. The shot/save sample size is large enough to detect a difference in performance between goalies.

kgo

I disagree. I’ve watched easily over 2000 NHL games in my life which means I’ve watched 4000 goalie games played…

I’ve also watched and followed closely the birth and evolution of hockey analytics, and if one thing is clear, it’s that goalies are voodoo and Sv % isn’t worth fuck all. I suppose we’re getting somewhere with GSAE but it’s still very difficult to quantify which puck a goalie should have stopped….the funny thing is, every player on the ice surely knows.

I liked Smith’s ego and swagger, but it hurt more than it helped….Ultimately I think Smith lost the confidence of his teammates much like Koski, and this was reflected in the team’s play. Despite what the boys said to the media, remember Luongo’s tires deflating?.

I think Campbell is good enough and consistent enough, and we will see a completely different team psyche playing in front of him.

Last edited 2 years ago by kgo
ashley

I think you are arguing my point rather than disagreeing. SP is not a good goalie stat. It’s a team stat, yet we use it to say a goalie is good or not. We should have learned this by now from Khabibulin, Dubnyk, and others who migrated in and out of our system.

It’s HD save percentage that matters, but even then, I don’t always agree with HD counts. It seems like the definition is not properly established. So those are hard to trust too.

Playing a team like LA that shoots everything from the moon is a much different thing than COL that moves the puck around for a better opportunity before pulling the trigger. And get a lot of transition odd man rushes. For each opponent, the shot counts are similiar, but the quality is at a much different level.

For a stat where four goals over 40 games can make someone above average or just average, this matters more than a little bit.

defmn

For me consistency is the attribute that is most important for a goalie. The hi-lites are great and you need them from time to time but teams play differently in front of goalies they don’t trust – and not in a good way.

This team is built for the 4-3 game rather than the 3-2 game imo and it will be like that until the defence is a finished product which it is not at the present time.

Pretendergast

People saying we didn’t improve even from the end of the year.

Did we forget Leon was on 1 leg? That Nurse’s core muscles were torn and he couldn’t turn let alone initiate contact? Smith from round 2 onwards? This will be a vastly improved team if even marginal health keeps up. And a year of Woody to get this running like a well oiled machine.

Plenty to be optimistic about.

Shaun VanAllen's mom

What would be your point here, HH? He’s saying the Oilers will be a better team. How does your reply respond to that assertion?

Harpers Hair

That both LAK and COL are also better teams when their injured players are in the lineup.

If, as he says, the Oilers are “vastly improved” does that not also apply to those teams?. Teams that the Oilers will have to beat to improve their result?

meanashell11

That is not what he said you weasel. He was not comparing to other teams, he said “people are saying we are not even better than the end of the season. You are such a loser. Just leave, you are embarrassing yourself now. What an ass clown.

kgo

Don’t take the bait…HH is sitting in a basement in a retirement community on sunny vancouver island blogging away….tells you everything you need to know.

Ozoil

Of note, teams are better when players aren’t injured. Thanks for your contribution today. Look forward to what other wonderful insights you may have brought today as I continue to read.

geowal

BS. You can say a team has improved its overall ability without referring to other teams. How that plays out in the regular season standings and playoffs is a whole other conversation.
And besides, the Oilers are healthy while (to-date) losing no contributing players, they’ll have improved, whereas other teams (Flames, Avalanche) have lost contributing players.

Melman

So 8-8 overall. Let’s only refer to series where the other team was also injured and throw out the record against the healthy team hoping to ruffle feathers? slow day?

Pretendergast

No I didn’t. Whats the point here.

DevilsLettuce

He thinks it’s a Wendy’s.

Melman

I was referring to HH’s 4-7 needle. I’m with you, I think they are for sure stronger to start this year than last, and hoping that they are better than they finished. Agree the smell of realistic optimism is in the air – a long forgotten scent around these parts!

DevilsLettuce

Both of the teams he’s championing were being bench bossed by coaches that had training camps with their squad. Not by a fella that took on a team with 5 games in 7 days to begin his journey, the same fella that out coached his hero Sutter and sent the Flames into the same state as his comments.. What’s the point here fella? He must of forgot.

OriginalPouzar

Is it not notable that the Avs have gotten worse over the off-season. Downgraded goaltending, lost two top six players (unless they re-sign Kadri)?

cowboy bill

This is what they have so far , if they can afford to fit Yamamoto , MacLeod & Jesse under the cap . .

Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Nuge-Leon-Hyman
Holloway-MacLeod-Puljujarvi
Foegele-Shore-Ryan
Malone & Grifith

Nurse-Bouchard
Broberg-Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Koekkoek

Campbell
Skinner

How does that look ?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Forward group looks unreal. One of the deepest in the league.

I think the D will be:
Nurse Ceci
Kulak Bouchard
Bro Barrie

The overall strength of the D group will depend on Broberg, imo.

Benign Bone

I don’t actually mind the idea of Broberg skating with Barrie. He was more settled in his 2nd stint last year and playing alongside Barrie would allow/force him to focus on developing the defensive side of the puck.

Benign Bone

At this point in the offseason, it’s a pretty safe bet that any signings made can pretty much replace any of the less-than-ideal names with minimal changes in cap. Signing a couple guys like Sanford and Steel at F and swapping 4K with Samorukov would make that roster shine.

Foegele-Steel-Sanford
Ryan, Shore/Malone

Munny 2.0

Sounds like Rocky Top Thompson is going to end up coaching in Philly, who looks more dysfunctional now than they did even just a year ago. Nice to see him as far from Kane as possible.

Hockey Project

https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1547634569641205761?s=21&t=n0xMZs8h8f55zkgmypcRIA

Johnny Gaudreau said he wanted to play “relatively” closer to the East Coast. “I always dreamed about playing a tad closer to home. It didn’t matter where I was signing. Our decision was it was best for us not to go back to Calgary.”

Oof!

StixMalone

Battle of Alberta too tough for ya Johnny boy????

Side

I think Johnny may have won the battle of alberta for us singlehandedly for the immediate future. Go Johnny!

Sierra

I suspect

  1. he really does want to be in the US and specifically as close to home as possible (his wife’s family is in Phillie).
  2. he doesn’t like the travel of the west
Material Elvis

3. He doesn’t want to play on a contender and hates playoff hockey.

defmn

Sutter isn’t everybody’s cup of tea either. He may have appreciated whatever Sutter contributed to his career year without any desire to repeat it.

Harpers Hair

@Peter_Baugh

Chris MacFarland on Altitude Radio discussed Nazem Kadri‘s free agency: “We stay in touch with Naz’s camp. Right now they’re doing their thing and we’ll continue to monitor it.”

He said they’ll look at both internal options and the trade market if Kadri walks.

Ozoil

Of note, team stays in contact with Agent.

Amadeus

Any interest in Sam Steel? Could probably get him on a 1 year deal at $1M.

Benign Bone

Young Edmonton-native that can win faceoffs and has some scoring pedigree. Sounds good to me!

Randle McMurphy

Meh. 50% Faceoffs; Not strong possession numbers. Nothing special on offense and below average on defense.

oiGF 31
oiGA 45

Melman

He was on the 2018 World Jr team. There is risk in signing those players until teams are able to determine who was involved or not in the sexual assault. Obviously the elite players will be less impacted until everything is sorted, but for a fringe player, why take on that unnecessary problem as a club.

dustrock

Jack Campbell is following Dylan Strome on Twitter, you know what that means baby!!!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I do not love Dylan Strome. Especially if it means trading Yamo or JP.

Diablo

Honest question – where would Dylan Strome play in our lineup? Kane is with McDavid, so does Strome play with Draisaitl?. Strome had to be sheltered with O-zone starts with Kane by Chicago last season, because of his speed. Is that how we want to use Leon?

Munny 2.0

4RW

John Chambers

I see Strome as a 2LW

Kane-McJesus-Hyman
Strome-Drai-Yams
Holloway-Nuge-Pulju
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan

Maybe you need to trade Foegele to make the $’s work, but that appears to be a very potent forward lineup.

TheGreatBigMac

Foegele is a decent 3LW if I’m in the market for one, but Donato is still available with similar or better production at ~ $1M. Not trading for Foegele without a sweetener right now. If we can’t make the dollars work, I think JP is heading out.

Last edited 2 years ago by TheGreatBigMac
cowboy bill

Not sure how you figure Holland can make anymore signings with only $1.3M cap space and another $6.3Mwith LTIR and 3 RFA’s to sign . That looks to be about all he can do .

cowboy bill

Unless he works the trade market .

knighttown

I find the concept of generations, with respect to hockey and draft clusters, to be quite fascinating. Much like the Boom, Bust and Echo concept to wealth and success, when you were drafted matters an awful lot. I wanted to take a moment to get some thoughts down and start a conversation about where that leaves the Oilers from a 10-year kind of a view.

The late 90s and early 00’s drafts, frankly, sucked. There were of course some good players but the quantity and quality of Hall of Famers drafted out of the first round over that time period was far below the historical norms.

  • 1998- Lecavalier and the rest is awful; no Hall of Fame
  • 1999- Sedins and even more awful but they’ll go in the Hall
  • 2000- no HOFs in 1st (Heatley and Gaborik) and terrible
  • 2001- Kovalchuck, Spezza (either of them going to the Hall?)
  • 2002- Rick Nash (Hall?) and the rest is blah

So you had a very weak cluster in terms of overall ceiling and certainly in terms of depth who should have been running the league in the 2000s but just weren’t strong enough to hold off the next wave. And of course, that wave was led by the monumental 2003 draft class;

  • 2003- Fleury, Getzlaf, Burns, Perry, Carter, Richards, Staal, Suter and of course Bergeron and Webber from the 2nd round. Plus a dozen more perennial top of the lineup guys like Parise, Phaneuf and Dustin Brown

But if you look at the possible HOFers in this draft-era cluster you can add in;

  • 2004-Ovechkin, Malkin
  • 2005- Crosby, Kopitar, Price
  • 2006- Toews, Backstrom, Marchand
  • 2007- Kane,
  • 2008- Stamkos, Doughty
  • 2009- Hedman

Every Cup winner from 2009-2021 had at least two players that came from this cluster; with the exception of the Blues who may be looked back on as a team that snuck one in between two dominant generations. They of course did have a cluster from that era but they aren’t HOFers; O’Reilly and Pietrangelo.

So zip ahead to the 2009-2012 era which Oiler fans know well.

  • 2009 Hedman
  • 2010 no HOF (Hall, Seguin, Tarasenko)
  • 2011 no HOF (Landeskog, Huberdeau, Nuge)
  • 2012 Vasilevsky but worst draft since early 2000s

So as Oiler fans we saw our players drafted and assumed our time would come but in reality that group wasn’t strong enough to knock off a historic draft-era cluster that proceeded them. But maybe…just maybe when most of them start to age out??? Hall wins one Hart trophy but boom…here comes;

  • 2013- MacKinnon, Barkov
  • 2014- Draisaitl, Pastranak
  • 2015- McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Rantanen, Aho
  • 2016- Matthews, Tkachuk

Just a massive cluster of talent that, now with the win by Colorado, has pushed aside the 2003-2009 cluster. The 2010-2012 cluster should be at the forefront but don’t have the high end talent or depth to hold this group off. But from a generational standpoint I think what comes next matters more.

A couple of weak draft years followed by the COVID kids might create a bust worse than the one that started in the late 90s. Besides Cale Makar, where are the HOFers? Where are the Hart trophy winners?

  • 2017- Makar…then Petterson, Thomas, Heiskenen
  • 2018- I don’t see any (Svechnikov, Dahlin, Q. Hughes)
  • 2019- none (J. Hughes, Seider, Zegras)
  • 2020- Lafreniere etc
  • 2021- too early but consensus suggest no generationals
  • 2022- same

Bedard and Michkov come next year.

All of this to say the Oilers have two of the top 5 players from the dominant cluster of this generation. This cluster should have an earlier start due to the weakness of the 2000-2012 group and a longer sustain due to the weakness of the 2017-2022 group. Bedard and Mitchkov will need to find a cluster partner and that could take some time if they get drafted into Arizona or Chicago; no different then McDavid waiting until Year 7.

Another important moment will be when MacKinnon signs his contract in the next few weeks. If settles in nicely under McDavid that will put pressure on Matthews to do the same. Leon will have very little choice but to come in around 12 leaving McDavid room to push ahead but not astronomically so…maybe 14M…which should be plenty low once the cap starts rising.

All of this to say, I see no reason why this team shouldn’t win one pile of games over the next 10 years if management understands the above concept and keeps having days like they had on day 1 of free agency.

Elgin R

Good research! My only issue is that Toews is not a HOF player. The stats do no match. Captain Serius was good but not HOF.

Redbird62

It’s Hall of Fame not Hall of Stats – Winning matters. Captaining his team to 3 Stanley Cups is a good start. Won a Conn Smythe for his efforts as well. Won a Selke and was perennially considered for it. Add to this two Olympic Golds, two World Junior Golds and a World hockey championship. And he has never been a passenger for any of it. He had the most points for Canada in the 2010 Olympics.

They voted him one of the top 100 all time and he will likely go in to the Hall on the first ballot.

Last edited 2 years ago by Redbird62
geowal

First, I’d say he did qualified the list as “potential” HOF.
second, I’d agree with Redbird that his sheer amount of winning will trump any perceived lack of stats. Especially as the people who vote on this I don’t think are exactly analytics savants.

great post Knighttown

Redbird62

Even analytic savants would vote for Toews. For the first 8 years of his career, his 5 on 5 GF was pretty much 60% or better every season, and his xGF% (which they’d love) wasn’t far behind in most of those 8 years. In all 14 seasons he’s played, his GF% has been above 50% (and only as low as 50% this past season on the worst team he played for). He had only 5 of 14 seasons with an xGF below 50% and just barely all which occurred in recent seasons with the Blackhawks not contending. The fact that his points per game, though not elite, did not drop in the post season, like it does for most players, is a huge plus as well. He brought it when it mattered most.

John Chambers

2009 Tavares
2011 Kucherov, Gaudreau

kelvjn

I’ve always believed there is some kind of correlation between draft class success and the CBA work stoppage.

For sure the NHL talent pool is reduced due to newer snd stricter salary cap that came with every work stoppage (where the European league salary sees relative stepwise increases drawing away the lower and middle rank players from NHL). This is more obvious when one look at the percentage of 1st rounder making X games by year, which steps up coinciding with lockouts and also expansions. The step down in quality of play in the lower end of the talent pool might have make shiny new top players draft immediately after lick outs score at a higher rate.

The problem with scoring is that there is only so many minutes (especially in the PP) to go around. Reputation matters. Getting established early matters. A JP would stuck behind a CMD, LD and RNH, the same as a Yakupov would stuck behind Hall, Erbele snd RNH. It takes a lot for a new comer to knock away a 5M or 6M player for premium ice time.

The other probable reason is during NHL/AHL stoppage more “high end” overagers play in the junior league. The higher quality of competition would somehow make the young good players better. At the very least, it makes identifying best players from draft class easier as they have to really earn ice time from the stronger overagers.

No idea why 2003 (top drafted players played an extra year un junior)>2004 was but 2012<2013 though.

Munny 2.0

Pysysk was signed by the Wings this morning.

I’m wondering if Holland has any intent to trade Barrie at this point in time.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I’m a bit nervous about Kulak on the second pair, but that’s possibly splitting hairs. Other than that I’m pretty thrilled to get the season going. I still think Barrie goes for a more physical D. If they traded him for a LD that could slide Kulak down to third pair, I’d be ok with Broberg on his off-side paired with Kulak there. This D is still a lacking a bit of size. Those guys are falling out of trees at the deadline though.

Diablo

I think they keep Barrie, unless they can get another RHD in return.

Injuries happen … trusting Broberg to go from the 3rd pairing on his off-side to the 2nd pairing on his off-side is bad planning. Right now the pairings are all balanced, and Kulak and Barrie were very effective last season … why break them up?

With Klingberg still out there, and the other rumoured destinations for Barrie having gone and acquired RHD yesterday, I don’t think there is a market for Barrie’s services right now. Moving Barrie is an in-season deal, after you’ve (a) signed Bouchard long-term and (b) seen how Broberg fares.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

So you see Kulak and Barrie getting second pair minutes? Bouchard on third pair with Broberg?

Diablo

It’s an evolving process – the formation of the team at the start of the season is not how it will necessarily look like at the end of the season, going into the playoffs.

At the start of the season, I’m fine with Barrie-Kulak as the second pair … they play well together, and should be able to hold down the fort.

I want to see where Bouchard is at … so I move him up to play with Nurse against tougher competition to see if he can really handle those minutes or not. He gets PP2 time until he signs a contract extension … I’m not paying for empty calorie PP points … let Barrie eat those for now.

Broberg is the most important D prospect in the whole organization … I give him Ceci to help with the heavy lifting for the first quarter of the season, then see how he’s faring. He works with Ceci at even strength and on the PK.

If he is ready to progress, then Ceci-Broberg becomes the 2nd pairing by minutes/responsibilities, and Kulak-Barrie go back to 3rd pairing by minutes/responsibility.

Obviously, the whole plan hinges on Bouchard being able to handle 1st pairing minutes against tough competition at even strength with Nurse. But if he wants to get a big extension, then he’s got to earn it too.

MADOIL

Did anybody listen to the Nielson show this morning? At one time (~7:30 AM, I think) they were talking about possible additions to the Oilers being either Dylan Strome or Sonny Milano with the confirmation possibly coming today itself.

Randle McMurphy

If this is our choice, Sonny Milano please.

Plays either side. Surprisingly strong possession numbers.

CF% 56.5 CF%rel +11.4
FF% 55.2 FF%rel +10.7

These ^ are both his numbers for last season AND are his career averages across his 7 seasons in the NHL

oiGF 59 oiGA 43

Heavy OZone starts 70/30

He has never earned more than $1.7m in an NHL season.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I still cannot believe Johnny signed with the Jackets. Most bizarre free agent leaving/signing ever?

Side

Especially since there have been reports that NJ offered more money and their offer was on the table at the time Johnny signed with Columbus.

I guess Columbus really made quite the impression on him.

“It was just “wow!”” As he says

lenko

It would be interesting to see what the tax structures are like between an east coast state like NJ and a mid-west state like Ohio. Could be a factor as well. Coastal states tend to tax you to death.

Munny 2.0

A quick DDG search… Ohio is 37th in taxes collected (FLA is 49th), NJ is tenth and takes about 80 percent more than Ohio.

That said, I think Johnny is there because he has friends there and because CBJ did him a huge favour in giving his ex-Flame buddy a sweetheart deal.

Randle McMurphy

Nailed It!

Randle McMurphy
N64

They got the right guys form the premium aisle on Day 1. Stopping there was the right play. Holland underlined the importance of shopping in the cheaper aisles. The bargain bin is going to be richer than most years and they need some serious competition to replace Keith and Russell. Should also be some good competitors available for spots vacated by Kassian, Archibald, and Turris. Good year to pick up depth. Maybe even an arg eligible RFA on the loose that will do a cheap year to get the Oiler bounce. There will also be better options for guys that can be buried for free

Last edited 2 years ago by N64