Prospecting!

by Lowetide

This is Reid Schaefer. He’s playing for Canada at the World Junior Championships and is one of the Oilers top prospects. Schaefer was a good bet at No. 32 overall and is tracking well as a real NHL prospect. Over the last several years, Edmonton has been making solid bets, bets endorsed by math. It’s a welcome relief from the long gone olden days of Coke Machines and moar big.

THE ATHLETIC!

PROSPECTS

LW Reid Schaefer isn’t playing much for Canada, he has a shot on goal, a penalty and total icetime of 15:25 from 22 shifts. In the WHL, he’s 15-12-27 in 22 games (NHLE: 30.4). I think he’ll turn pro in the fall of 2023 and play for the Condors. A recall to the NHL is at least possible, although it’s probably a distant bell.

RW Maxim Berezkin is 21 and has size (6.03, 216) and skill (4-11-15 in 32 games). His NHLE (30.9) is excellent and he’s playing in the world’s second best league. Size, shot, will foot speed be an issue? And can the Oilers sign him? He’s the best prospect in the system most fans haven’t heard of yet.

LW Matvey Petrov is having another strong OHL season (11-31-42, in 32 games) with an NHLE of 34.8. His numbers are similar to one year ago, but not quite as impressive. He remains one of the best scoring prospects in the system.

LD Nikita Yevseyev is 18 and playing in the KHL (37 games, 5-1-6, NHLE: 10.7). I expect he’ll be a big story once he turns 20, and Edmonton could use his defensive acumen. LD Luca Munzenberger has a somewhat similat resume, although the Russian appears to bring more offense. Munzenberger is playing in Hockey East (14, 0-4-4, NHLE of 9.2) and I think he’ll sign with Edmonton in the spring.

RD Max Wanner (6-17-23 in 26 games) plays for the Moose Jaw Warriors and has an NHLE of 21.9. He’s one of the players I’ll be paying close attention to over the back half of the WHL season. Did the Oilers find a guy in the depths of the pandemic draft? He wasn’t on anyone’s radar, went in the seventh round. If would be a helluva story.

PROSPECT NHLE BY YEAR

I wanted to post this because everyone is talking about Jakob Chychrun as a strong Edmonton option. If you are the Coyotes, who is of interest? Is there a clear future impact player on this list? I think Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are the class of the group, but Holloway’s offense is not clearly top-six NHL, at least not yet. There’s risk. Broberg looks good to me in the AHL, but can’t stay healthy.

Would Maxim Berezkin move the needle? I don’t think so, there are speed issues. I have the top-20 prospects covered here, and the top four stand out for me. Is one of those men, plus the 2023 first-round selection, the deal to beat? I don’t think so.

Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong told Michael Russo at The Athletic “if the assets on the other side were there, we would definitely make the trade. That hasn’t come of yet. Doesn’t mean it won’t come.” Chychrun is about a point-per-game, and the Coyotes should get at least one true blue-chip prospect. What would that look like?

ASSORTED NHL’E SINCE 2007

These are draft year NHLE’s, and give you an idea about what impact prospects coming out of junior look like. Connor McDavid, Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov and Leon Draisaitl were all past 40 points NHLE. Evan Bouchard’s number from the defense position is also elite. I’d guesstimate any of these names would be considered either solid compensation for Chychrun in today’s market, or an overpay.

What about the forwards who are 30+ NHLE? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto, Xavier Bourgault are all in that range. Considering the draft year totals and progress since, I think Bourgault and the 2023 first-round pick might be the strongest combination of two assets Edmonton could offer, assuming Holloway and Broberg aren’t included in the deal.

THE COMPETITION

Using only Pacific Division teams, and using NHLE for this season, what does the possible acquisition list look like? I’m going to assume all teams are willing to part with a 2023 first-round selection.

  1. RW Arthur Kaliyev, Kings (9-10-19 in 34 NHL games)
  2. LW Jakob Pelletier, Flames (44.3)
  3. LC Connor Zary, Flames (42.8)
  4. LC Quinton Byfield, Kings (37.4)
  5. LW Matvey Petrov, Oilers (34.8)
  6. RW Jagger Firkus, Kraken (34.4)
  7. RW Matt Coronato, Flames (31.3)
  8. RW Maxim Berezkin, Oilers (30.9)
  9. LW Reid Schaefer, Oilers (30.4)
  10. LD Olen Zellweger, Ducks (30.1)
  11. LD Lukas Cormier, Golden Knights (23.9)
  12. LD Philip Broberg, Oilers (22.8)

This isn’t a complete list, I grabbed Corey Pornman’s lists from the summer rankings and applied NHLE to the top four or five names for each team. If the Los Angeles Kings want Chychrun, they have more than enough to acquire the player in my opinion. The Calgary Flames could offer Connor Zary and Matt Coronato, I think that might be preferable to Broberg and the 2023 first-round pick.

If the Oilers offered Broberg, Berezkin and the 2023 first-round pick? I still think the Kings beat that, and we haven’t looked at the other divisions. Would Holloway, Broberg and the 2023 first-round pick get it done? Yes. Should Holland offer that package, with Puljujarvi as the cap contract moving in the deal? The Oilers would look like this when healthy:

  • Evander Kane-Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman
  • Warren Foegele-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto
  • Mattias Janmark-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Klim Kostin
  • Devin Shore-Ryan McLeod-Derek Ryan
  • Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci
  • Jakob Chychrun-Tyson Barrie
  • Brett Kulak-Evan Bouchard
  • Extras: Markus Niemelainen, James Hamblin, Brad Malone
  • Stuart Skinner (Jack Campbell)

The depth up front takes a hit, but the defense looks stronger. I doubt Ken Holland trades Dylan Holloway or Philip Broberg, but it’s an interesting deal to ponder.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

We’ll chat Oilers and the NHL, Connor Bedard, the NFL Thursday Night game and Al Michaels, plus bowl games. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Red wolf

Thanks for this excellent blog Lowetide and Happy New Year long week-end!

Tarkus

Summarizing!

Lachance was held off the scoresheet in a 5-1 win. But like Wanner the night previous, he engaged in some fisticuffs (which apparently also carries a misconduct penalty in the USHL). Truculence!

Oh, and since it doesn’t appear this was mentioned yet, Schaefer picked up a helper in Canada’s 11-0 win over Austria.

Last edited 1 year ago by Tarkus
Ice Sage

These are interesting times, when the fanbase spends many an hour parsing out one player and how to wedge him into the current situation. Like everything else is in place…!

Harpers Hair

@CraigSMorgan

Jakob Chychrun remains hot. His rebound of Nick Ritchie‘s initial shot gives him four goals and 17 points in 18 games. PPG
Shayne Gostisbehere with the other assist. 2-2.

McSorley33

Ah, plumber Nick Ritchie making Jakob look good.

Reja

Contract years and playing your way into a trade seems to motivate players. You want to be traded out of mudville start producing are your stuck here. Of course this G.M strategy does not work for a individual on the Oilers who shall remain anonymous.

Richard Roma

Holland, the price keeps going up.

Munny 2.0

Lol, why would Holland care?

Munny 2.0

Did the Oilers find a guy in the depths of the pandemic draft? He wasn’t on anyone’s radar, went in the seventh round. If would be a helluva story.

Almost as good as the one 7th rounder Brock Purdy is writing right now. 😉

godot10

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Kyle Shanahan, Robert Griffin, Kyle Cousins
Kyle Shanahan, Trey Lance, Brock Purdy

Optimism is like heroin

Ok as an option besides Chychrun for the farm, what else could we get if we look else where?

Arizona wants a player, top prospect and 2 firsts.

Might I suggest we could get Gavrikov, Acciari and Toews for close to the same.
Gavrikov w retention = 1st
Acciari w retention = 3rd
Toews w retention = 1st + Puljujarvi + top prospect

The second options adds more to our defense and pk.

Ryan

I hope that we don’t pay the ask for Gavrikov.

Dom has his Salary at $2.8m with a market value of $1.8m. Dom’s model doesn’t like his defensive ability. He’s in the bottom 10 percentile in that area which is supposed to be his calling card.

Evolving Hockey doesn’t love him either (though there’s some overlap since Dom uses some stats from EH for his player cards).

Is Gavrikov much better than a Kulikov? Imagine if you spent a first round pick for Kulikov.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Optimism is like heroin

Problem is there are very few Ufa defenceman and he plays for another horrible team. Since I am not a eh subscriber would you please give us the actual stats that bring him down?

Ryan

EH has him overall in the 17th percentile. 55th for offense and 6 for defense. (current year). 3-year average is 35/ 62 / 47

Chychrun:

current year: 72/82/56

3 year: 84/81/75

Nurse:

current year: 52/86/22

3 year: 78/97/4

Optimism is like heroin

3 yr average shows a decent defensive dman, who also plays heavy pk minutes. I also want to mention again that defensive types on a bad team tend to look worse.

Ryan

That’s true. That’s why they pay the analytics guys the big dollars.

Sometimes defensive types on bad teams just look bad from playing on a bad team, but sometimes these guys just are really bad. The hard part is to know the difference.

Still a 1st is way too much to pay for this guy.

Munny 2.0

I posted a big bunch of data on Gavrikov here, for those interested:

https://lowetide.ca/2022/12/23/game-35-2022-23-canucks-at-oilers/#comment-1174492

There’s the numbers, peeps, then you can make up your own mind on the player. Don’t just take our word for it.

===================

Is his acquisition cost really a 1st? Wow. That’s way too much to pay for a pending UFA of that quality. I hope no one spends that much. The Oilers certainly shouldn’t. Holland seems to value 1sts a great deal (JP’s work though, he would remember better than I). But I can’t see Dutch spending a 1st on a defensive rental.

That’s a lot of cap to fit too on an LTIR team. I don’t see Holland spending assets to make Gavrikov fit. I don’t see him doing it for Chychrun either, for that matter but who knows for sure? Only Kenny. The problem with trading cap, of course, is one enters a game of whack-a-mole. Fixing a hole by creating a hole elsewhere. I don’t think that’s Ken’s plan. I think he wants more than one change, so his bets will have to be cheap.

Optimism is like heroin

The first may be too high but retention has to be factored in too. He is more valuable at 1.4 rather than 2.8

Munny 2.0

I address that in the second paragraph. I doubt that saving $1.4M in cap space for a few weeks on a defensive dman will be worth spending a 1st to Holland when he go get another guy for a 3rd and have more cap space.

I could be wrong, he might love Gavikov, but that love would have to be there. The numbers I’ve posted don’t show a clear winner at the role and position. Our data is limited compared to team data, but from the info we have, I don’t see it.

Optimism is like heroin

To the cap side of your statement, bringing in Acciari and Gavrikov with retention will require Broberg and Holloway going to Ahl and nothing more.

Munny 2.0

With Kane on the roster? Would you be so kind as to show your work on this?

jp

I think it’s very likely those 3 players vs. Chychrun, for the same asset cost, would be better this season.

The main issue I see is that those 3 players are rentals, while Chychrun would continue to provide value for 2 more seasons.

Optimism is like heroin

You see an issue and I see a benefit. I am still wanting broberg in the 2LD spot as he should provide cheaper longterm value rather than Chycrun for 2.5 years as there will be no way to sign him again.

jp

Fair enough I guess. Your suggestions do preserve the main prospects likely to impact in the next few years.

That’s still a boat load of futures for players who aren’t going to be around beyond this season. And at least one of the first rounders your sending out isn’t going to be available to improve a future Oilers team.

Optimism is like heroin

I normally would not want to spend the futures but if it is a go for it year then this would help us immensely in this year’s quest. Damn have things gone sideways this year.

jp

I have no issue spending futures. I just don’t think it’s the best strategy to spend next years futures since you’re going to have another quest then.

dunterpunter

Puljujarvi for Lafreniere straight across?

lol

Harpers Hair

Sam Gagner getting a huge video tribute in Winnipeg as he plays his 1000th NHL game tonight.

Harpers Hair

Sam and all three of his kids getting a silver stick.

hopeoil

Does math really love Schaefer as a prospect? He’s old for his class, an NHLe last season of 22, no track record of being elite producer at lower levels. I’ve seen him play only twice and I’m no scout, but I’m confused to what it is the math likes about him. Firkus had a considerably higher NHLe.

David

Season splits would be my guess.

I know it’s not a popular opinion but I think age in a draft class is overrated.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Age in a draft class absolutely matters.

Older kids have more time for development than the ones who just squeak into the class.

There’s a lot of data about this, and not just for hockey.

Munny 2.0

I’m pretty sure from the scuttlenbutt I was hearing that Firkus was on the Oiler’s radar. They ended up taking, Schaefer… the safer pick.

Revolved

Schaefer with a primary assist and a couple shots in the second period. Against Austria, but still production with limited minutes.

DieHard

A no for Chychrun unless we trade JP, Kulak and a 1st. Then trade him when Broberg is ready.
FYI: Barrie is NOT tradeable.

OriginalPouzar

Barrie is not traceable because (1) he’s necessary for the Oilers or (2) his contract has negative value?

Genjutsu

1

McSorley33

How do you shelter somebody on the Arizona Coyotes?

Travis Boyd has 3 goals as their 1st line C.

Barrett Hayton their former 1st round pick – has 1 goal as their 3C

Zack Kassian anchors their 4th line.

No laughing -but 30 year old has-been Nick Bjugstad is their 2C

I have no idea if Chychrun is ideal for the Oilers.

I do want to know how he is posting:

GF 18 / GA 9

Again, could just be small sample but at some point you have to ask – even in just 17 games – how – anyone could be positive with this *abhorrent* lineup.

Ryan

I debunked this myth yesterday.

The first question you have to ask yourself is how?

How do you play a defenseman the most 5v5 minutes on your team, with the least on the fly starts/60 and shelter him?

Coaches shelter their defensemen by cutting their minutes or putting them on the ice with on the fly starts, so they can control the match ups.

When you look at the this season’s PuckIQ data, particularly without adjusting for the time frame that Chychrun played, it looks like he’s playing 3rd pairing minutes.

When you narrow the time frame to the games he actually played, it narrows the gap…

Then when you look to the left to the actual time played against elites, he’s playing them the same as anyone else.

Really, Arizona has an even spread of their top 4 minutes against elites. Chychrun just plays a bunch more minutes against other comp on top of that. This effectively lowers the percentage of his total time against elites making it appear that he’s playing 3rd pairing comp.

Why is this this the case? I’m not sure. Either his coach is very good at getting him lined up against some of the weaker comp, the other coach is avoiding him a bit with their better players, or a bit both.

This season, it looks like Chychrun is sheltered as you’ve concluded here, though a sub 70 minute sample size is not very robust.

Indeed, Chychrun has a lower percentage of TOI vs elites 22.5% compared to Moser (28.5%) and Valimaki (28.9%).

For the games Chychrun has played this year he’s actually played 66.5 total minutes vs elites compared to Moser (67.5 min) and Valimaky (50 minutes).

If you’re going to conclude that Chychrun is sheltered this year because he played a minute less against the PuckIQ estimate of elites, in a small sample, I’m not buying it.

From what it looks like. Arizona has a fairly even deployment of their top 4 against Elites this year–just that Chychrun plays so many additional minutes against the other comp that it lowers his percentage of total time against elites down.

Scungilli Slushy

Maybe the coach is playing Chychrun a lot and essentially pumping him, easier QoC, heavier O zone usage, less D zone

The GM gets a guy producing that he’s trying to move, and the unwary or old schoolers may bite. Chychrun is a good player, just maybe not worth the haul that a top end first pair solid defensive guy did

The coach gets an influx of talent to work with which makes his chances better to mold a successful team (young players he trains) and maybe gets to keep his job longer

Ryan

Nurse plays those minutes. Makar, McAvoy, Fox, those guys play true 1st pairing minutes. Chychrun is generally not doing that on a terrible team.

JP.

You were saying that Chychrun was playing 3rd pairing comp this season. When, I showed you that you were actually incorrect, rather than acknowledging that you were incorrect, you pivot to a discussion about him not playing Nurse’s minutes.

Around these parts, we used to call that moving goalposts. 🙂

I used to love following the QOC vs QOT debates from the thought leaders in Hockey analytics (Tulsky, DTM about heart, Dellow etc…) Sadly for me, all of these writers have been hired by NHL teams or started private consulting businesses. Great for them though. 🙂

For years, there was a QOT vs QOC debate that vacillated back and forth. At one point, someone declared that QOC doesn’t matter at all.

The last I recall was that the consensus was okay maybe QOC matters after all, but who you play with actually matters a whole lot more. The effect size of QOT is more robust and coaches have ultimate control over QOT. You can only control QOC so much.

Nurse plays those minutes, about half the time, maybe more, with the best player alive.

I’m not sure anyone is currently playing the Nurse minutes on a dumpster fire team.

I don’t have time right now, but Hampus Lindholm might be an interesting player to look at since he went from playing for a dumpster fire team to the Bruins.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Harpers Hair

Was just looking at Lindholm yesterday.

Leads the Bruins D in TOI/GP at 23:51…virtually the same as Nurse.

One year older but is locked in at $6.5 million for another 7 seasons but his contract was front loaded so he is only due $4.8 million for the last 3 seasons so should be relatively easy to move should that become necessary.

So, it would seem, 1st pairing D DO get traded after all.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

This is correct, to my memory. I remember georgesx posts last year showing quality of competition was not very meaningful.

Ryan

Who you play with matters the most. That’s why it’s hard to expect a guy to play the Nurse minutes on a bad team.

Bruce’s almost cousin weighed in once:

“It matters, on average, about three or four times less than quality of teammates does,” said Micah Blake McCurdy, “even after you take into account how you have five opponents at 5v5 but only four teammates.”

McCurdy is a PhD in mathematics and runs the website Hockey Viz, where he provides data visualisations rather than numbers. As he said in his talk at the Vancouver Hockey Analytics Conference, “Numbers are boring, pictures are awesome.”

OriginalPouzar

Imagine if Nurse ever had another 1st pairing d-man to play with (Bear, Bouchard, Barrie, Ceci, off-hand Sekera…..).

OriginalPouzar

I respect all those famous names that did that analysis publicly.

I can’t believe that who one plays against isn’t very meaningful – I just can’t. I mean, I wonder how Nurse would do facing mainly 3rd and 4th lines and how McDavid would do playing against tweener forwards and 3rd pairings. Like, really.

jp

I’m not sure where this goalpost moving stuff is coming from. It’s insulting as well as being unfair.

Team rank in %TOI vs. elites has generally been taken (here at least) as the best proxy for QoC. You’re now arguing that total TOI vs. elites is the only accurate measure, when both are in fact incomplete descriptions. Saying that I was incorrect is your opinion, I don’t agree at all.

I’ve been very clear that Chychrun’s usage is a bit of a dichotomy. Playing big minutes but a lower % of them vs. elites than most of his teammates. That’s sheltered in some ways and not in others.

To the % TOI stuff specifically, you first explained the %TOI numbers away because Chychrun must have been injured when his Arizona teammates played the most difficult comp. Then you claimed the high TOI/low %TOI vs. elites usage isn’t actually sheltered (because Chychrun’s total minutes vs elites are 3rd on the Coyotes in his 17 games this season). Now you’re saying that QoC doesn’t really matter at all. And that I’m moving the goalposts.

Nurse and the others were used as a reference for what true/typical 1st pair defenseman usage looks like. Chycrhun is sort of playing similar TOI to those guys (actually 1-3 min/game less than all of them) but the % of his TOI vs. elites is way lower. As I said yesterday (the part immediately before what you quoted):

Whatever you want to call that usage, it isn’t typical 1st pair or #1D usage

(ie – big minutes AND top comp).

The reason I’m talking about all this is because it doesn’t appear that Chychrun’s coaches are calling on him first to play against opponents top players. And that might indicate he’s not particularly trusted defensively.

He plays lots, including against elites, because he does lots of things well. But when a penalty needs to be killed, or when his team is protecting a lead, Chychrun doesn’t seem to be the first choice.

I’m pretty sure that’s a fair and accurate take on things. If you disagree, by all means please explain why.

Whether QoC or QoT are more important isn’t particularly relevant to this at all. If his coaches are not choosing Chychrun to play the key defensive situations (they are not), then it should rightly be flagged as a concern. And at minimum it’s something relevant to understanding a player who the Oilers could (or should) pay Holloway, Broberg, 1st and Puljujarvi for. I think that’s more useful than saying ‘no, he plays first pairing minutes’, when it isn’t that simple.

Also, any comparisons to Lindholm would miss the point a bit, since Lindholm is among the Nurse/Makar/McAvoy/Fox group who actually do consistently play 1st pair QoC (as defined by %TOI vs elites).

Ryan

Jp, I have enjoyed our many discussions here over the years.

I’m genuinely sorry that you’re offended, but from my perspective this feels like a textbook case of moving the goalposts.

Moving the goalposts is an informal fallacy in which evidence presented in response to a specific claim is dismissed and some other (often greater) evidence is demanded.

I felt that I provided ample evidence to refute your claim that he wasn’t playing 3rd pairing QOC as you had suggested. Your response was, in my opinion, to move the goalposts to him not playing typical 1st pairing d minutes like Nurse.

To me, that felt like you had moved the goalpost.

I will agree. He does not appear to be playing the Nurse minutes. However, he certainly isn’t playing 3rd pairing QOC either.

It would be great to get your opinion here. Do you double down on your opinion that he’s playing 3rd pairing comp or gave you revised that assessment?

Hampus Lindholm is a piss-cutter and would have been a better acquisition.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
OriginalPouzar

Nurse has played 265 minutes with McDavid and 430 without so not near half.

Nurse has also played 300 minutes against elites without McDavid and is 10-8 goals.

Ryan

Not sure where your data is from?

PuckIQ has Nurse playing 267 minutes with 97 and 301 without this year against elites.

Last season, 257 with and 172 without 97.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, as I said, 300 minutes against elites without McDavid (from Puck IQ)

The overall minutes without McDavid comes from NST

Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

Reid Wilkins

@ReidWilkins
·
25m

Woodcroft says “we’ll see” when asked if Draisaitl will play in Seattle. Draisaitl didn’t practice again today.

jtblack

Injuries will continue; another reason KH needs to add depth in multiple areas.

OriginalPouzar

You think Munzenburger is ready to turn pro Al? One of the benefits of drafting out of college is the extended window to sign before their rights are lost (i.e. greater than the 2 years if drafted out of the CHL).

I wouldn’t mind another year of NCAA, pre-ELC, development – with that said, from my hundred-foot view, maybe getting him out of Vermont isn’t a bad idea….

RD Max Wanner (6-17-23 in 26 games) plays for the Moose Jaw Warriors and has an NHLE of 21.9. He’s one of the players I’ll be paying close attention to over the back half of the WHL season. Did the Oilers find a guy in the depths of the pandemic draft? He wasn’t on anyone’s radar, went in the seventh round. If would be a helluva story.

What a spike for this player in draft plus 2 (and the offensive position of it started last season. This guy also likes to hunt, Nimelainen-style and has annihilated a couple opponents this season. Just like Phil Kemp, even signing an NHL ELC after being drafted in the 7th round is a huge win for player and org. Look forward to him developing as a pro next season.

OriginalPouzar

Does anyone really have any idea on Berezkin? Is the NHL his goal and he’ll sign and come over when “he’s ready”? Solid season in a good and low-scoring league. Anecdotally, this tier of prospect from that league generally aren’t ready to compete for an NHL job until 23-25 – miles to go.

Yeseyev’s offence has dried up since that early season heater but just playing in the KHL as an under-ager and actually getting real minutes is a massive thing. I’d be interested in digging in to his TOI splits to see if he’s still getting more than the normal 3-4 minutes these extra roster teenagers generally get.

I’m “satisfied” with Petrov’s production – the question going in to the season was if he’d be able to come close to repeating last year with both his line mates graduating to pro hockey. He’s off last year’s pace but has solidified his spot as a “real prospect” and, given his draft position, that’s a win!

cowboy bill

Berezkin sounds similar to Klim Kostin. But we know Klim is probably a better skater.
Is there room on the roster for both? They could have a couple Russian bookends.

Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill
OriginalPouzar

LW Reid Schaefer isn’t playing much for Canada, he has a shot on goal, a penalty and total icetime of 15:25 from 22 shifts. In the WHL, he’s 15-12-27 in 22 games (NHLE: 30.4). I think he’ll turn pro in the fall of 2023 and play for the Condors. A recall to the NHL is at least possible, although it’s probably a distant bell.

Didn’t think he’d play much and, nope, he sure isn’t. Is on the PK (depth work) but was on for a goal against in game 1 in that state.

He did have an eventful series late in the game against Germany – ripped one off the post, took a minor penalty and then was stoned on a 2 on 0.

Given recent history of Oiler prospects at this tournament (Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault), him not getting injured could feel like a win.

Keep working on those boots Reid – that’s the main focus.

No doubt he turns pro and spends the years as a Condor – a call-up would indeed be very surprising at this point – you never know but history tells us this tier of prospect will need 12 plus AHL months.

geowal

For defence , if we’re moving the farm to upgrade, it should mean a bonafide #1D, and as such a legit top pair. If Nurse is immovable, for whatever reason, that means an upgrade on Ceci. I like him lots, but seems vastly above his ability here. No candidate in mind here, but to me that’s where you get real improvement worth the ask people are suggesting for Chychrun. Otherwise focus on two way (with real D ability) of the forward group. A Mike Peca.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t disagree with the premise given the presumed acquisition cost but in this day and age, contract and value for contract factors in pretty much as much as straight player ability and the contract is divine (for 2 more years)….. presuming health.

kgo

How about Bouch ++ for Karlsson with 50% retained…the money is even because bouch will be making approx $5M for the next 5 years. (unless he signs a 1-2 year deal)

OriginalPouzar

I’d sign Bouch to the Klefbom deal today but I imagine we are going to see a bridge.

Munny 2.0

Sail on King Peixe, the great Pele. RIP Edson Arantes do Nascimento.

meanashell11

I saw Pele play live in Egypt in 1973.

Reja

Wow that must have been a real thrill. Pele has to be the most recognized name in the history of Sports.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Pele has to be the most recognized name in the history of Sports.

You can’t be serious, right? Pele was inarguably incredible. But he retired in 1977. As context Gordie Howe was still playing in the NHL (and would for another three years).

Cristiano Rinaldo has been on top for a while.

But don’t take my word for it:

Reja

I’m speaking as a whole not for 1 or 10 years. I would also say Jesse Owens would be in the top 3-5 as well as the Golden Bear.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

In what demographic?

Most people today have no idea who those people are and how significant their contributions were. I do, because I enjoy sports, and history in general.

The world’s population in 1977 was 4.2 billion. Today it’s nearly double that. Basically nobody knows who you’re talking about. Most people live in the present, not the past.

Reja

Oops I didn’t list Muhammad Ali.

Munny 2.0

You’re correct, Reja. Usually the most famous athletes of the 20th century are cited as Ali first and Pele second. Being the greatest of all time, in the world’s biggest sport, is a huge deal. I can remember the hype behind that Santos-Cosmos farewell game. Huge shot in the arm to America’s soccer program, which was essentially nonexistent till his services were brought to NYC.

He gave the world Brazilian football, Flowing, dynamic football. He put the beautiful in “the beautiful game”. And much like Ali, his athleticism could only be described as “poetry.”

Redbird62

Muhammad Ali at his peak, was the the most famous person in the entire world, not just the most famous athlete.

Munny 2.0

John Lennon would like to have a word with you…
😉

meanashell11

I shook Ali’s hand at the Calgary Stampede, must have been like 1981 or 82? He was the parade celebrity. My girlfriend at the time was involved with the Stampede and introduced me to him.

knighttown

In Halifax and heading to see the Connor Bedard show tonight.

He is to shooting what Connor McDavid is to skating; truly 1 of 1.

I remember two things about 17 year old McDavid.

  • Stamkos clarifying that McDavid wasn’t going to be better than Stamkos himself…but rather…he already was better
  • Button scoring McDavid’s skating as a 6-out-of-5

Both of those things really caught my attention.

In the same way I’m quite sure I’ve never seen an 18 year old shoot a puck like Bedard does and I’m not convinced he doesn’t shoot better than Matthews already.

He pulls it into his own feet taking away the classic “stick on puck” defense and just thunders it.

I remember making the call that Patrick Kane would win Western Conference scoring titles after he was drafted so let me say it right now…this kid might take a run at Ovechkin’s 9 Rocket Richard trophies when this is said and done.

Scungilli Slushy

Stamkos comment was surprising to me at the time and turned out to be correct and awesome

ArmchairGM

Why so hot and heavy for Chychrun? Too long in the echo chamber? As far as I can see he’s just another offensive defenseman who needs to be sheltered from elites. Isn’t that the opposite of what the Oilers need?

geowal

My thought too. I don’t know his defensive game, but it’s my uninformed predisposition.

McSorley33

Likely, more about our own top 4 D ability to headman the pass to either McDavid or Drai.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I find it interesting that we’ve recently seen both claims in the comments section, that he is sheltered and that he isn’t.

Can you show your work as to why he is sheltered?

Ryan

There’s a few problems with that.

Elite players are not distributed evenly amongst the teams, so when you compare a player who’s played half the games against players who have played all of the games, that can have an impact if a player is out injured when his team faces a run of good teams.

Indeed, the gap closes by adjusting for the dates Chychrun plays.

The next problem is that no one here seems to understand that CTOi% is a percentage of the time that players play against elites.

So if you have two players who actually play against elites the exact same minutes, but one player plays less total icetime, they are going to erroneously look like they play harder minutes since this inlates their CTOi% against elites.

Indeed, this is what we see her in the actual TOI column.

If I have to explain this one more time, I’m gong to light my hair on fire.

ArmchairGM

Also, among the 5 AZ defenders who have played at least 1000 minutes at 5v5 this season and last (combined), Chychrun has the most offensive zone faceoffs (which makes sense as he’s very good offensively) but also the fewest neutral zone faceoffs and the fewest defensive zone faceoffs (per naturalstattrick.com). Which is strange: if he’s actually the #1 that many here are suggesting, why would the coach have Stralman, Gostisbehere, Moser and Mayo out for more defensive work? The first two, at least, are very well known to be poor defensively, yet they get fed harder comp and harder zone starts. That should be a giant waving red flag to a team looking for defensive help.

Last edited 1 year ago by ArmchairGM
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Thanks! This is consistent with what I recall you having posted on this a while back.

With JC having missed so much time (as is his custom) does this deployment account for the games where they were all playing together, or is it the entire season?

ArmchairGM

I believe it’s entire season numbers. But being last on the 22-23 list I don’t think you can argue 1st pairing comp in the games he did play.

doctoreye

Has anyone thought of putting Pulu on the PK?With his wingspan,and defensive ability wouldn’t he be better than Yamo?Stop the bitching about Pulu,and give him a chance to contribute more.

cowboy bill

LOL. Do you seriously think they haven’t given him a chance to contribute? Putting JP on the PK isn’t rocket science, it has been mentioned on numerous occasions. But for whatever reason they haven’t considered it. They must have their reasons.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure what the reasons are but we now have four NHL coaches that haven’t given him a sniff on the PK and the same history back in Liiga. In the season he returned, he played a TOTAL of 2 minutes on the PK. He did play a bit, a depth role, on the PK in the partial season back in Liiga when the 2021 NHL season started late.

Neumann

My belief is that he changes direction like a semi truck.

Bank Shot

Does Puljujarvi even want to play on the PK?

He’s seen himself as a top six forward in the past.

OriginalPouzar

He tends to be the most defensively responsible player on any top 6 line he plays on – generally the high forward in the offensive zone, providing support in all zones, etc.

I doubt he’d have any issue with it and would likely work hard at it (as he seems to have worked at developing other parts of his game instructed by the coaches).

W

It’s like throwing out Niemelainen with the bath water. The man is taking giant steps almost weekly, he is turning into a big shutdown Dman. If we must make a trade get a goal scorer instead.

cowboy bill

They have plenty of goal scorers. What they lack are players with defensive acumen. Niemelainen shows promise. But he isn’t there yet. If they have to rely on Nemo to step up, they are in deep water.

fishman

I agree with keeping Nemo. Low cost and has an element sorely lacking in this line up. Not sure I agree that another goal scorer is our biggest need. Our team defence has been putrid. We sorely lack top 4 D. Kulak, Ceci, Bouchard and Nurse have all under performed. Barrie has likely been our most consistent D and he is no defensive specialist.

FabioRoberto

This organization has taken years to ammass the depth it currently has and now the cry is to fork it over for a player that can’t stay healthy, and hasn’t played in a stressful hockey market before? Niemelainen is playing well, Broberg was playing well. This team needs to play team defence like last year. End of story. The concerns should be a) when and can Campbell play consistently, b) what happens when Kane comes back. People wanting to give up the farm for Chychrun need to give it a rest.

McSorley33

When do you think Philp Broberg will be back – from another injury?

OriginalPouzar

Shortly – he’s skating with the team.

I would also note that the injury risk of a player on his ELC and a player locked in at $4.6MM are different.

Imagine, we finally get out of LTIR hell with Klef (and Smith) off the books, just to go back in it….. that would be something.

flyfish1168

Congratulations to Sam Gagner for playing his 1000th game tonight. He may not be the fastest player. He does have 6 goals this yr. Can’t help but think he could be of some help as he has always had some offensive ability. Signed for a league minimum.

Last edited 1 year ago by flyfish1168
wkorkie

Maybe he didn’t want to come to the Oilers, but seems like he’s far more useful than Devin Shore. Every time I watch Shore play, I think he seems like a nice guy but is the very definition of replacement level player with no differentiated skillset whatsoever.

Bruce McCurdy

I ran Gagner’s name up the flagpole this summer as a possible cheap signing for aa depth role, & got a lot of “better options available” pushback. Which there were, I guess, though few of them seem to have landed in Edmonton.
Even with modest totals of 6-5-11 in 32 GP, he would rank 5th on the Oilers in goals & 6th among forwards in points.

fishman

Shows how low the bar is for secondary scoring!

flyfish1168

One thing about Sam. he has a passion for the game. I remember when phlegms sent Olli Jokinen (joker) to fight Sam. A player that is 20 lbs and 5 inches taller. Sam held his own, how many guys can do that against a much bigger player? Domi is the only one i can think of.

meanashell11

Samwise will always be an Oiler in my household. My youngest son was an absolute huge fan, still is. Wears a Gagner jersey to every game he goes to!

Primetime

Much of the consternation of trading for a Chychrun or similar ilk player is that we have to move salary also to make it work. The problem with that is that Arizona is asking for high end futures and to make it work we have to ALSO send a somewhat useful piece for the current playoff run as well (Barrie, JP etc)

I would be more willing to give up the high price Armstrong wants (even Broberg and the 2 next first rounders he wants) IF the return also includes getting out from Campbell’s contract. That let’s us keep the other useful pieces and add Chychrun to the mix.

The question is what is more likely to sink a run in the next few years:

  • lack of another top end LD
  • Skinner regressing to the meat and not having a veteran backup (even if that veteran is currently STRUGGLING)

Would give us a great chance this year. Next season could trade Barrie or JP in the offseason for some assets (even a second rounder as the hope would be our next 2 first rounders would essentially be super close to second round)

maudite

They won’t qualify jp if not included to offset salary in some deal.

Ryan

I don’t think it will be possible to move the Campbell contract.

There isn’t a team out there that’s willing to take 4 years more of $5m in bad cap.

Maybe if you retained half his salary, but that wouldn’t help because you’d still need a backup.

knighttown

You say it a little more kindly than I have been saying but it’s not been a good year for our impact prospects. There were so many “up arrows” last year with XB, Savoie, Petrov and Holloway all doing things that would be considered incredible for their leagues and draft slots and Tulio sort of bubbling under.

Now each and every one of them has fallen back to earth in terms of NHLE. With three massive forward prospects turning pro at once (plus some cool young-ish pieces on defense) Colin Chaulk is a pretty key cog in the next decade of Oilersdom.

Are we sure he’s the right guy?

Bruce McCurdy

Seems like a change of leagues often overwhelms what might be expected to be regular progression of NHLe, none more than when a player first turns pro. But that is particularly extreme in Bakersfield this season. Bourgault’s NHLe is down nearly 50% from last season, Tullio’s 60%, Savoie’s 70%. A lot of the drop is due to the double whammy of tougher comp (which in theory is built into the given league’s NHLe coefficient) & reduction of role/opportunity (which largely isn’t built in anywhere, is my take).

Have to admit I have wondered about Chaulk’s deployment decisions more than once. But his defence may well be “these kids aren’t ready, need to be patient”.

Fair to conclude that the failure of Oilers’ prospects (skaters, not goalies) to take a step forward this season is a problem at more than the NHL level.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bruce McCurdy
knighttown

While “up arrows” for Berezhkin and Wanner are nice stories, best case probably involves them getting a cup o’ coffee or playing 50 games on an injury plagued team.

The guys that truly matter are these 4-6 at the top of our prospect list and for whatever reason they’re stagnating (at least by appearances).

To your point, perhaps NHLE for draft +1 juniors inflates while NHLE for rookie AHLers deflates so maybe this is much ado about nothing.

wkorkie

Holloway seems to be a player who pops in his second year at a level, especially when given more opportunities. A trade now could be at pennies on the dollar. Broberg on the other hand, does not seem to be tracking to be another Klefbom. If they can pry Chychrun by dangling him, they’d be getting a hotel room for a casio imho.

OriginalPouzar

Broberg is tacking in lock-step with Klefbom and, numbers-wise was ahed of him in their AHL draft plus 3 seasons. While Klef was forced to play some tougher minutes in his draft plus 4 NHL season (equivalent to the current season for Broberg), he leaked goals against massively.

The only issue right now with Broberg is injury and here is hoping, now that he’s on the ice again, he’ll be able to get some traction playing nightly over the next few months.

McSorley33

I have not seen that at all.

In one of Klefbom’s first few games ( on the road) there were glimpses of 1st pairing plays. ( head to head against Getzlaf on the road etc, etc)

Like Yamamoto, Broberg getting hurt is a feature, not a bug, of his game people have been talking about for a while. Putting himself in awkward spots to get pasted.

At best – I have seen is stretches of solid play from Broberg. ( nothing wrong with solid play)

It is still early…but as each month goes by it is becoming tougher to envision an elite 1st pairing NHL D.

OriginalPouzar

Whoa, hold on, who said anything about “elite 1st pairing”. I’m a big Klefbom fan but he wasn’t that.

Broberg has also showed some glimpses – he led the D in ice time in one game last year recall.

Injury is indeed a concern but its only a concern until its not. I mean concussions were a concern for Crosby until, well, they weren’t.

I don’t think we know how Broberg hurt his ribs earlier but I don’t think he’s been injured as a result of pasting in recent memory.

Comparing drafts plus 1, 2 and 3 for the two players, Broberg is ahead statistically, in the same leagues, all the way. He turned 21 this summer. Twenty-One.

danny

with what Conor did in last year’s playoffs, there should be no hesitation to put all chips in the middle now. Anything less, and I can’t see how McDavid sees not pursuing/getting Chychrun as anything other than a slap in the face.

Scungilli Slushy

Who knows what Connor feels the team needs?

Connor has an opinion about Chychrun he’s played him lots

Ryan

Danny, I’m not sure how this gets down votes.

I agree. It’s time for Ken to shove his stack of chips into the middle of the table.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
BornInAGretzkyJersey

I didn’t pile on, but I’m not convinced Chychrun is the right target.

The price is too damn high. For that haul we’d better be getting a blue chip player, not someone who’s merely famous.

OriginalPouzar

The post wasn’t about “going all in” in isolation, it was about going all in for one specific player. Not everyone agrees with that given all we know.

OriginalPouzar

There is also a very good argument that saving some chips to have some more next season when the team is like not in LTIR and will actually have the ability to be in-season players (accruing cap space, pro rating acquired contracts, etc.). is a good play.

Every single move this season will be more expensive given the cap structuring required.

Tarkus

Prospecto!

The spotlight focuses solely on Shane Lachance this night as he continues what can rightly be called a breakout season. He’s currently a Cy Young candidate, pitching 16+5 in 23 games, already exceeding last year’s goals by five and counting.

He gets Lachance (boo-urns) to fill the net more yet when the puck drops at 6 p.m. Andrew time.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

These last couple towns you’ve used almost have me surrounded… There’s another that goes by a man’s first name that I don’t think you’ve used yet. Place is a bit of a dump though.

Todd Macallan

I’ll take a stab at it. What is….Ryley? Or Holden?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Ryley is correct; the biggest draw is the two landfills (one “sanitary” and one for industrial waste).

Tarkus

Pretty sure I’ve used Ryley already?

Getting to the point where I have to start repeating places, or else expand the territory from which I draw.

Keeping a list of the places I shout out is more work than I wish to do 😉

VanIsleOil

I think it’s awesome to see all the small rural Northern Alberta locations. I vote for some repeats occasionally rather than expanding the territory. Keep up the great work on our prospects.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I can’t recall if you’ve used Ryley or not, but I’d suggest that repeating place names isn’t a… Mundarable idea.

Last edited 1 year ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
Todd Macallan

Yeah after so many great small towns have been used I lost track of repeats. One could say I’ve been Daysland confused…..

Tarkus

…for so long it’s not Trochu…

BornInAGretzkyJersey

If I’m to compete with these regional puns, my game had better be on a High Level, offering a Fairview of the landscape. And even as I’m Manning up, I feel as though I may Falher in my attempt.

godot10

Keep the Broberg. Give the Bouchard.

Bouchard, one of (Yamamoto/Puljujarvi), Petrov, Munzenberger,and the 2023 first for Chychrun.

Last edited 1 year ago by godot10
David

I really believe in Broberg’s potential. I’m also a believer in players being injury prone and Broberg is just that. For that reason if some other team placed high value on him I would trade him. He’s going to keep getting injured.

OriginalPouzar

Kulak or Broberg as 2RD seems like an odd way of improving the 2nd pairing.

cowboy bill

Aren’t they already using Kulak as a second pair with Barrie and Bouchard on the third pair with Neimelinen? So with the addition of Chychrun, Kulak might move down to third pair right side with Neimelinen / Broberg . I think that’s improving the second pair.

John Chambers

To balance the money the trade should be:
Puljujarvi, Kulak, Ryan, Holloway, 1st and 2nd for Chyckrun and Bjugstad.

Upgrades the 4th line and frees up money for another move.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

This is an idiotic overpay that would cost a GM his job.

Good Gord people step back from this really dumb edge and stop selling off the farm holy hanna.

Hehe fun observation – back when Hunter lost his mind about the must win game against the Devils i posited they’d still miss the playoffs. After that they went on what a 12 game winning streak? As of this morning a three game slide combined with intra-division strength would see them outside looking in. Wild ride.

That tale might serve as a reminder that it won’t take much to have our Oilers sitting just peachy without having to trade three players off our active roster for an insanely overrated defenseman.

jtblack

Won’t take much to miss the playoffs either ….

FabioRoberto

If Chychrun is worth that, what are Connor and Leon worth? An entire team plus 10 first round picks? lol

leadfarmer

Is this a lot though? A lot in quantity maybe but not quality

Tye

how were you THIS drunk at 9:13am?
I know it’s the holiday break, but holy cow man. . .

neojanus

The question is whether the Oilers missing the playoffs is acceptable this year? If the answer is no, there needs to be a significant move to address the top 4. There are very few candidates available to move that needle.

I think the price is going to be astronomical… but I also don’t know that the Oilers make the cut without a massive swapping of pertinent assets.

jtblack

Holloway, Broberg, Pulujarvi & 2023 1st rounder = “4- 1st rounders”.

Seems a little steep?

innercitysmytty

In the current year we likely would be. Over the next 5-7 years I don’t think so. I wouldn’t make that trade. If no team offers what Arizona is holding out for and Chychrun presses the issue, the price may come down.

I would do either Broberg or Holloway, 1st (2023), Jesse and if needed a 2nd (2024) or B prospect.

Last edited 1 year ago by innercitysmytty
jtblack

I am all for Win now. And yes they are better immediately.

I guess how do they round out the roster if a deal like that was completed?

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Why get so hot and heavy about one year?

Is this cause everyone is scared after what happened to the Flames?

This is a terrible trade that no GM should contemplate nevermind execute. So so silly

jp

Could Edmonton be in better position to win Stanley with that deal?

This season probably yes.

23-24 and 24-25, likely no.

(basically what innercitysmitty said)

FabioRoberto

Well I would certainly hope he wouldn’t LT. No, they would be much further from a Stanley.

flea

How do the oilers trade for Chychrun with their salary situation?

I like the player and would be ok with moving out some prospects and picks to get him. But when Kane is back there isn’t room. There are no other injuries at this time, if they wanted to activate Kane tomorrow they’d have to go back to a 20 man roster.

I haven’t seen the trade that would allow them to add $9M in salary with Kane and Chychrun before the deadline. I don’t think it exists!

flea

So they wash salary on this deal somehow. I guess the Kane issue is still down the road a little.

They have $1.5M in cap space with LTIR this morning. They will be right back in a tricky situation when Kane is back. I’m not even sure the 20 man roster works.

They’d have to dump some other cap hit to make it all work. I don’t see who that player is.

jp

LT is suggesting Arizona retain part of Chychrun’s salary.

It’s possible to retain as much as half ($2.3M). That would open up another $800k above what Puljujarvi is making.

Not sure the exact number, but I think they’d need to open up about $400k beyond just washing out Chychrun/Puljujarvi’s salaries to run a 21 man roster with everyone healthy and not have to waive Ryan/Janmark.

That would mean Arizona retaining about $1.9-2.0M on Chychrun for this season and two more.

flea

Honestly I think this is unreasonable, JC has a very reasonable salary and Arizona has little incentive to retain. I think another team could take it on fully.

I think salary is why this deal does not work for Edmonton.

jp

Asking Arizona to retain isn’t unreasonable, it will just cost more.

IMO the cost is probably already too high, so retaining $2M x 3 years on top just adds to that.

(of course, you then have an even lower AAV for a quality player, so maybe it does make sense?)

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure Arizona would be in the business of retaining, especially when to trying to dispose of a negative value contract and possibly a value contract. I think the cost for that would be VERY expensive.

cowboy bill

Yes, it is a tricky situation when Kane comes back. The only way it might work is if Kane doesn’t come back this season.

OriginalPouzar

Given he’s likely back mid-February and Stauff is even suggesting it could be late January, how do you figure “Kane doesn’t come back this season”?

OriginalPouzar

They have $1.5M in cap space with LTIR this morning. They will be right back in a tricky situation when Kane is back. I’m not even sure the 20 man roster works.

They could go with the exact same 21 player roster as earlier essentially. One of Kostin/Holloway and one of Janmark/Ryan

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
cowboy bill

Why would Arizona want to do that?
It’s wishful thinking that isn’t going to happen.
Making the money work is the main issue. I really don’t see any NHL team coming to the Oiler’s rescue and if one is kind enough to oblige, the league would probably veto it.
It’s a nearly impossible situation that Holland faces. If he can find a way to make it all work, he would deserve GM of the year. What I do see is a lesser deal which the Oil will have to settle for, that would certainly move the needle. Which is more Hollands style. But nothing to the extent of a Chychrun deal. That’s my 2 cents worth.

cowboy bill

The question is how much would Holland have to pay? The answer is a ridiculous price no GM in his right mind would ever pay. Except maybe Peter Chiarelli. Thank God he’s gone.

Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill