There’s a song by the Talking Heads called Tentative Decisions from about 45 years ago. I recommend it. It has a fantastic bass line, some great lyrics about arguments and several hooks to keep you interested. I think it’s fair to say the Oilers internal arguments (maybe it was just Ken Holland versus his whiteboard) reflect some real uncertainty. Specifically, the lower end of the roster and the possible recalls.
The three Canadian junior hockey leagues have been the number one supplier of NHL talent ever since the world began. The USHL has been pushing for several years. Now the numbers suggest the American junior league has pulled into the passing lane. https://t.co/FVAfSBgIHa
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
ISSUE ONE
What’s the problem? The Oilers don’t have a lot of strong options past the top 11 forwards and top 7 defensemen.
Nobody does. That isn’t true, SC winners Vegas Golden Knights had that kind of depth one year ago, and were also willing to make adjustments on the fly.
Be specific. Center is an obvious place to start. Edmonton likely runs Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan McLeod as the heart of the order. Lane Pederson is the obvious next man up, but after that we’re looking at below replacement level pivots.
Who are the candidates? Brad Malone, James Hamblin both played 10 games in the NHL one year ago. Zero points for either man, with an expected goal share of 60 percent (Malone) and 51 percent (Hamblin).
Those are pretty good possession numbers. Small sample, and no offense at all.
If you’re arguing small sample for possession numbers, can’t I argue small sample for no offense at all? True, but you’d like a little more bubbling under.
What about Brandon Sutter? He last played in 2020-21, scored 9-3-12 in 43 games. Sutter has never been especially strong versus elites, and he was eroding before he was forced to stop playing. I’m cheering like hell for him, but I don’t think he’s going to be a strong solution.
Who on the roster is clearly better than Sutter? Until we see him play, I’ll say all of the center candidates. We have fresh information on Malone and Hamblin and others. Sutter was an NHL player before he became ill. He’s a complete wildcard now.
What about wingers? Nugent-Hopkins is the obvious one, but that would move McLeod to the fourth line. Derek Ryan is a smart player and can be trusted anywhere but his foot speed is an issue when in the middle. Mattias Janmark is an option, but like Ryan is best suited to the wing.
What about Sam Gagner? He isn’t a center. He’s better than he used to be without the puck, but I don’t see him filling that spot.
What is your complete NHL-AHL depth chart at center opening night? 97-29-McLeod-Pederson at the NHL level, and then Hamblin-Malone-Jayden Grubbe-Greg McKegg-Carl Berglund.
Grubbe ahead of McKegg? They might play together. It’s important for Grubbe to play a lot and with good two-way linemates. I like the young center, he needs to get lots of playing time in important parts of the game. That means veterans mentoring him and smart players alongside. Thinking McKegg-Grubbe-Tullio in my mind.
Hey what about Dylan Holloway? I was waiting for you to get there.
What do you think? I think he could be the fourth-line center opening night. The Oilers could run him there and move Holloway up the depth chart as required in-game. We know there’s shuffling all the time, this could solve the issue.
Give me your lines. Kane-McDavid-Hyman; Nuge-Draisaitl-Brown; Foegele-McLeod-Ryan; Janmark-Holloway-Gagner/Lavoie/Pederson/Caggiula.
Why not Lavoie on the third line? If he earns it, music! I’m basing this on the deployment of Holloway, Philip Broberg and Evan Bouchard in previous seasons. Edmonton slow-plays talent in the Holland tunnel.
Is Holloway on the fourth line the best solution? I think it is. If the coach shortens the bench, he can move Holloway up to the third line and Ryan can fall back. You could do the same thing with Janmark or Ryan, actually.
Would Holloway become a utility player? The old timey utility players were often penalty killers and some played forward and defense (Jimmy Roberts of the Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues did everything but play goal iirc). I think Holloway’s utility could be a secret weapon for Edmonton this season. We’ll see in camp.
Is there a similar issue on defense? No, not really. I do think Philip Broberg will play, so 7D is likely in some games. It’s a nice problem to have, in case of injury or slumps. I think the coaching staff will run Broberg more next season, mindful of his status as a still developing player. We’ll see. That’s the only real issue on defense.
In goal? Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell are the NHL stoppers with Calvin Pickard and Olivier Rodrigue in the AHL. I think all four men could play in the NHL this season.
Have you completed your Reasonable Expectations estimates? Yes. You’ll see them at The Athletic toward the end of the month.
9/9 and a pb of 22 uniqueness. Thanks Jochan Hecht!
Harpers Hair
August 19, 2023 1:36 pm
The narrative that the Oilers have the deepest centre group in the league is not borne out by recent results.
While McDavid and Draisaitl are certainly among the top centres (when they’re not playing together), the quality as reflected by useage drops off dramatically after that.
Yes, Nuge can play centre but he generally doesn’t any longer and Oiler coaches play Connor and Leon far too much.
VGK just won a cup by utilizing actual depth up and down the lineup as evidenced by playoff TOI for their centres.
Jack Eichel 19:00
Chandler Stephenson 18:20
Willam Karlsson 17:21
Nicolas Roy 15:01
It’s worth noting that 4th line centre Roy scored .50 PPG contributing significantly to the cup win.
Would the Oilers have been better off upgrading 3C rather than pursuing Connor Brown as a top 6 winger?
Yes it was an issue for sure which pretty much reinforces my point.
If a team can outscore one of the McDavid/Draisaitl lines, and then turn to William Karlsson and Nicolas Roy led lines, they’re in great shape.
Both McDavid and Draisaitl played more than 23 minutes per game which is far from ideal.
Considering the results in the series and the previous one against Colorado when the Avalanche were deep at centre, it might have been wise to invest in a more robust third line and move McLeod to 4C.
LT has argued today that McLeod is too good for 4C but he is certainly not better than Nicolas Roy and that would be a nice problem to have any way.
last summer and was told that Nuge wouldn’t get enough TOI.
It isn’t that the Oilers don’t have depth at centre. It is that they don’t have enough talent on the wings.
I am old enough to remember when it was common knowledge around here that guys who play wing were the easiest pieces to find but I am still waiting to see that play out for the Oilers although cap considerations due to roster construction is definitely a major part of the problem.
Your way would certainly better although not ideal since Nuge is poor at faceoffs. 44% in the playoffs while Karlsson was 54%.
As for TOI, constructing a third line that is trusted and cutting back the insane minutes of the top 6 would go a long way to solve that issue.
It’s a real puzzle that a team that drafted so high for so long has to shop the free agent market for wingers and tends to send them away when they draft and develop them.
Yamamoto could have been a very good third line player but once again he was miscast and his contract was mishandled making him too expensive.
There was a level of incompetence surrounding the management of this team for so long it was difficult to watch.
I don’t blame Holland like some because I am pretty certain he was given a short time line to get things back on track and that meant decisions that were less than optimal.
Somebody help me believe in faceoffs. I’m as frustrated as anyone when we lose faceoff after faceoff, but I can’t get past the fact that a strong faceoff percentage (.54) is going to be only a difference of 2 more wins in a game over a poor faceoff percentage (.44).
Someone point out to me the reason it makes a huge difference.
I remember an article years ago by David Staples that pointed out faceoffs were not a strong indicator of success (GF/GA). I’ve looked a dozen times or more, but can’t find it.
I think winning face offs helps, but probably less than we’d assume.
I’d like to see the data on goals directly coming from a faceoff win. As HH points out below, it makes sense that a faceoff on a pp/pk is very meaningful as control in the zone with the man advantage is dangerous.
I would agree with defmn that selective moments probably stick in our minds.
I understand each faceoff represents an opportunity but my original point was what is the real difference between a good faceoff taker and a poor one? Each one is pretty close to a coin flip.
Dellow (I think) had a good post years ago on the advantage of winning a faceoff. IIRC, the advantage was gone after about 9 seconds. (Maybe that was at even strength?)
My memory fails me, but it’d be nice to have some solid analytics on this.
Most faceoffs don’t matter. A few faceoffs do matter. It is a fat tail distribution. On average, faceoffs don’t matter, but the tail events are more frequent than in a normal distribution.
Why does Edmonton have such a difficult time beating the Kings it’s one name? Danault! Even Maggie the Monkey can figure this out.
Are you talking about the Kings team that the Oilers were 3-1 against in 2021/22 and beat in a playoff series and were 2-2 against in 2022/23 and beat in the playoffs?
If it wasn’t for Campbell saving Skinner and the teams bacon we lose that series. Does Jack get rewarded “Not” Campbell was and is around these parts the new whipping boy. I know Campbell would of carried us past Vegas when he’s hot the man can stand on his head. Woody didn’t read it right and that’s that.
Another example of posting randomness that has nothing to do with the conversation re: Danault being the reason the Oilers can’t beat the Kings (proven false).
Campbell saved the Series if you don’t see it fine. If you don’t think Danault gave the heavily favourite Oilers fits fine. You can’t have it both ways. Vegas is a way better team than Edmonton because they won in 6. The Av’s own the Oilers because they won in 4. This is Fact end of discussion!
I don’t understand what points you are trying to make.
You are all over the place.
I have no idea what Jack Campbell coming in relief has to do with a position that the Oilers can’t beat the Kings due to Philip Danault which is objectively, and factually, false.
Yamo is gone because he couldn’t do the job. Fact! Woody knew it yet he kept playing Yamo against a heavy Vegas team that made Yamo look like a child. He’s one of the reasons we lost hence the the free bus ticket to Seattle.
Never seen someone so in love with a below average 2nd line player. Woody should of recognized this quicker. If you want to win you can’t be pals with everyone. Maybe he’ll break the 10 Goal mark now that he’s playing in his hometown area home cooked meals and all.
He was injured, he was ineffective due to injury. He’s fine when healthy but staying healthy appears to be a problem that is increasing. I can’t believe you two, this is an ongoing battle and it’s clear both of you are too stubborn to give in. I get it, stubborn is part of my DNA, too.
However, this has to be the 20th time you two have engaged on his and it is (respectively) a little monotonous. Surely for both of you as well.
I wasn’t even having this conversation. I simply make a post in response to Godot opining that Yamamoto was a boat anchor for Drai against Vegas and I showed the Oilers GF rates for Drai with and without Yamo in the series.
That is all. Reja chimed in with post after post about Yamo being terrible – I did not engage in that conversation.
This is not me – this is Reja making starwman argument and bringing his opinion on Yamo in to things.
I’m not trying to be different I love talking Oiler hockey. There’s was nothing more entertaining than listening to John Short cooler demeanour while callers phoned in screaming for Messier head or Fuhr’s a bum, Coffey is not a really D was always a debate early on. If Yamamoto was ineffective all year because of injury why wasn’t at least Lavoie not given a opportunity after Christmas or someone else moved up the line-up.
Yamamoto was hurt, he missed two long stretches of games and didn’t look right in many games he played. That isn’t really open for debate, but rather it is fact.
As for Lavoie, one imagines the Oilers felt a rookie in the lineup would be counterproductive. He isn’t a two-way type like Puljujarvi or Yamamoto, or at least he isn’t that we know.
If Bourgault had Lavoie’s experience, I think he would have received a call.
Decisions were made to keep Foegele and Kulak. I like both players but back in June they probably could have been traded for value freeing up cap space to go shopping later on.
It is a strategy that would have involved risk without doubt but it was available and this was an off season where I think it would have worked and I was not the only one suggesting it at that time.
Replacing Kulak with Broberg at 3LD doesn’t seem like an inordinate risk to me and you can always find a vet on a 1 year cheap contract to provide cover.
The saying “don’t argue with a fool” comes from Proverbs 26:4-14, which advises against answering foolish arguments of fools or becoming as foolish as they are.
Mark Twain also says “never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.”
Proverbs 29:9 warns that if a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, there is no rest.
Proverbs 23:9 warns against speaking in the ears of a fool, as he will despise the wisdom of thy words.
It would have been a poor decision to trade Kulak when one has not tried replacing Ceci with Broberg. The weak link is Ceci, not Kulak. One has to move Ceci down the roster to improve the defense.
You need to move Kulak in order to free cap. $2.75 is too much for a 3LD on a cash strapped team. Ceci would be hard to replace without more money to spend on that position. You’ve got the order that needs to be followed wrong.
Agree that moving Kulak made/makes sense, both because of his salary as 3LD and because moving him would open an uncontested lineup spot for Broberg to play.
Also, vaguely related to Kulak/Ceci/Oilers/Cups, the top 4 D on Holland’s Cup winning teams were:
1998
Lidstrom(28)-Murphy(37)
Macouin(37)-Rouse(33)
-Macouin and Dimitri Mironov were acquired at the trade deadline to shore up the D though Mironov got injured and played only 7 playoff games (he played more minutes/game in those games than both Macouin and Rouse though)
2002
Lidstrom(32)-Chelios(40)
Fischer(21)-Olausson(36)
-Uwe Krupp (36) was brought back from Europe (as was Olausson) but couldn’t stay healthy. He actually played top 4 minutes/game in the few regular season and playoff games he played though.
2008
Lidstrom(38)-Rafalski(34)
Stuart(29)-Kronwall(27)
-Stuart also acquired at the deadline.
I recall reading an article last year that said at least some in Oilers management believed Broberg would be as good as Chychryn by year end so they shouldn’t trade assets for Chychryn.
Setting aside whether that was warranted or not, with the cap crunch the Oilers are in, I would think they would believe Broberg could effectively replace Kulak – unless they soured on him greatly?
Today I was reminded that aging curves don’t apply to the likes of Anze Kopitar who will just face tough minutes year after year after year – they only apply to Oilers’ players.
I was also advised that Pius Sutter and Teddy Bluger are more than 4th line players.
Yes, it’s amazing isn’t it? Always the same BS. Now we have two of them fighting it out for the most inane post.
False narratives, goal posts that move like a Golden Snitch, non sequitur posts.
It is axiomatic that HAD Pius Super signed with the Oilers he would have been scoffed at by one and railed against by the other of the “Twins of Dufustown”.
Likely with horrendous grammar and littered with inappropriate/missed contractions and odious spelling but hey…
First off I’m a Oiler fan since day one the way you always whine your definitely from a younger generation. I don’t talk Oiler smack to other fan bases but when talking to fellow Oiler fans not everyone believes Holland is a God. He has made mistakes along the way. Answer me one question Professor has Holland won a cup in Edmonton? Why not??
defmn
August 19, 2023 12:35 pm
Give me your lines. Kane-McDavid-Hyman; Nuge-Draisaitl-Brown; Foegele-McLeod-Ryan; Janmark-Holloway-Gagner/Lavoie/Pederson/Caggiula.
==================
So many different ways to run these players and I am pretty sure that every possible combination has been posted at some point during the course of the summer.
My one wish for TC is that we see some low probability/high potential sets.
By this I mean seeing McLeod, Holloway, Lavoie and even Bourgault – the younger guys – get a legitimate chance to show what they can do as the third wheel with two of the pencilled in top six guys.
For me it is important for the team and coaching staff to take the opportunity of a training camp where we expect few or no surprises to try and generate some surprises. It keeps things fresh, adds an iota of urgency for the veterans and gives peeks into future possibilities.
I want to see a TC that showcases how much imagination this coaching staff has now that it has had control for a season and a half.
OriginalPouzar
August 19, 2023 10:41 am
Give me your lines. Kane-McDavid-Hyman; Nuge-Draisaitl-Brown; Foegele-McLeod-Ryan; Janmark-Holloway-Gagner/Lavoie/Pederson/Caggiula.
Oh my, Kane and Hyman together as a winger duo – its only 125 minutes but the numbers meet the eye test and its bad, very bad:
I love watching Nuge and Hyman together on the wing. I’d run Draisaitl between them, and have McDavid center Kane and Brown.
OriginalPouzar
August 19, 2023 10:38 am
I think he could be the fourth-line center opening night. The Oilers could run him there and move Holloway up the depth chart as required in-game. We know there’s shuffling all the time, this could solve the issue.
I think it is. If the coach shortens the bench, he can move Holloway up to the third line and Ryan can fall back. You could do the same thing with Janmark or Ryan, actually.
I’ve been posting that I have alot of time for Holloway at center as he has real center pedigree (his pop season at Wisconsin was as a full time center and he played a bit there in the AHL) but my concern is the minutes.
I don’t see Woody committing to playing his 4th line 12 plus minutes per night (or even 9-10 plus minutes per night. I can hope that Woody is able to resist the urge to shorten his bench and take players out of the game very early and very often but, given his history, I’m not confidant it happens.
With that said, LT brings up a good point – even if Holloway is on the 4th line and Woody takes the bottom of his roster out, he can still move Holloway up and keep him as part of the rotation.
Would Holloway become a utility player? The old timey utility players were often penalty killers and some played forward and defense (Jimmy Roberts of the Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues did everything but play goal iirc). I think Holloway’s utility could be a secret weapon for Edmonton this season. We’ll see in camp.
I don’t disagree with this but part of me thinks the best thing for Holloway is to settle in to a position/role and just play games, night after night, and develop. I mean McLeod/Foegele has shown to be a great duo – I have alot of time for putting Holloway on the left wing of that line and just rolling them out.
I like him playing with some decent skill on that 3rd line as well – no offence to the likes of Ryan and Janmark on a 4th line.
My guess is things click for Holloway this season, similar to how things did in McLeod’s second full time season. A similar trajectory wouldn’t surprise me at all.
YYCOil
August 19, 2023 9:55 am
Why not Lavoie on the third line? If he earns it, music!
95% of these guys, given the right circumstances can contribute to a winning team.
IMO the idea of “earning it” is outdated. Today’s NHL player has been earning it since they were selected for the U12 travelling team. What followed was single sport athletes that had 6 times a week ice time, strength, skating, nutrition, psychologists, massage, support AND full time hockey coaches AND the best players to practise and play with on a daily basis. Family commitments, school grades and anything else that interfered with hockey was eliminated so they remained on the youth hockey team of choice. This gives them a 1% chance at the NHL. Earning it starts at 12 years old, not when the Oilers draft the kid.
The coaches job is to get 5 guys on the ice that will out perform the other 5 guys about 75 times each game. Those 5 guys don’t have earn it, they have to win the next 45 seconds.
This is a excellent point it’s all about opportunity for at least a 1/3 of the league. Some fringe players are given 2-3 chances in the bigs while others just as good are washed out of the league. When it comes to Lavoie something just isn’t right in Denmark. I’ll be pissed if we lose Lavoie without ever given a honest chance because of something other than player performance.
Why wasn’t Lavoie brought up and giving a cup of Coffee last year. Who knows he could of caught lightning in a bottle as we all know he’s streaky going all the way back to his Junior days. It’s not like that little guy who’s long gone was doing anything constructive on the 2nd line.
Lavoie didn’t start playing well enough to put himself in the conversation until January, essentially.
By the time he had like even 6 weeks of play that would warrant a call-up, the Oilers were rolling and in a fight for the division title.
The Oilers were fighting for points in division/conference title chase, not in the business of waiving NHL players to give a “cup of coffee” to a player who was just finally starting to figure things out in the AHL.
If the team is rolling, it makes it easy to call someone up. It is more difficult when the team is struggling.
The OIlers might have pissed away a cup because they did not bother to check whether Lavoie could contribute more than Yamamoto, which would not have been hard to do last year.
cowboy bill
August 19, 2023 9:36 am
That must be part of why Sutter chose Edmonton, because of the opportunity at 4c. Then of course playing for a contender and winning at cup after a couple seasons off from hockey. Don’t underestimate this guy,guy’s.
I would suggest that expecting a 34 year old (who is closer to 35 when the season starts) who has struggled with a debilitating illness as well as injuries over past 5+ years, hasn’t played a full season in 7 years and has played an NHL game since May 1, 2021 will be very challenged to earn an NHL job.
Several actual once elite players have not fared well in more favourable circumstances at similar ages. For Sutter it will be a very steep hill to climb, but he is an experienced NHL player and he is a Sutter so he has a chance, albeit a slim one.
For more info on the player from a few years ago, and a more recent interview with him regarding his battle with long-Covid:
Sorry, unable to edit my errors (I missed a “not” & and an “it”), a red warning box said something like I was “posting too quickly” and did not allow me to save my edits.
I try try to review, but am rushed because when I post I am often looking at additional information and a post will often take me 10+ minutes to complete.
I know that after a period of time everything gets lost if you don’t save your post in a timely manner (not sure if it’s 10, 15 or 20 minutes or more).
I have been able now to adjust for that time, but not for my ADHD….
Swing away l laugh at it myself all the time but I can’t edit and I’m on a I-phone. You know as well as I one day your reading the content on products at the grocery store the next week you can’t make it out it’s just a blur. It sucks getting old. I still want 3 Cups with the window will have, that is if Holland can convince Leon and Connor to stay.
Sutter is the perfect fit for what the Oilers need at 4C. A big, right shot center that is a high end PK and faceoff guy and has shown the ability to produce in this league.
Of course, that guy likely no longer exists – he didn’t really exist two years ago at the age of 32 prior to two years without hockey dealing with health issues.
AsiaOil
August 19, 2023 8:40 am
The fourth line angst is over-stated. It’s an issue the Oilers can make disappear in one shift. If you move Holloway to 2LW – then RNH can move to the middle at 3C – and McLeod becomes a 4C. Voila……..best and deepest center depth in the NHL.
If that is true (which it probably is) then who cares about the 4th line?
The Oilers run their top lines more than teams like Vegas. If they continue to do so the 4th line is not really any issue because of limited ice time. If the Oilers expand the role of the 4th line then it is fine if McLeod plays there and has his ice time supplemented with special teams.
I wonder, would McLeod running both the third and 4th lines in 11-7 be a solution. That would give him 18 min a night maybe and keep line 1 and 2 to 20 min apiece.
1) Holloway hasn’t proven to be ready for 2LW and failed 3-4 times last season when moved up. I think he has a good shot to get there but its far from a lock.
2) I think Nuge is more valuable as a winger in than op 6 than as a 3C.
3) I don’t think there are enough minutes for McLeod as 3C – I think he could pop as a 2-way 3C this season with increased deployment against tough comp.
Dan Tencer
@dantencer
·
11m
I’m in Vegas playing cards. Fella at the table is from Dallas. When I told him I’m from Edmonton his instant response was:
“Grier’s foot was in the crease!!!”
If you know, you know. I almost fell over.
Any fan of DAL complaining about a foot in the crease has lost any concept of irony.
It’s nice meeting fella Hockey fans all over the World it’s definitely a conversation piece.
Oilers content on puckdoku.com today.
Be interested to hear people’s best %s and overall uniqueness scores…
9/9 and a pb of 22 uniqueness. Thanks Jochan Hecht!
The narrative that the Oilers have the deepest centre group in the league is not borne out by recent results.
While McDavid and Draisaitl are certainly among the top centres (when they’re not playing together), the quality as reflected by useage drops off dramatically after that.
Yes, Nuge can play centre but he generally doesn’t any longer and Oiler coaches play Connor and Leon far too much.
VGK just won a cup by utilizing actual depth up and down the lineup as evidenced by playoff TOI for their centres.
Jack Eichel 19:00
Chandler Stephenson 18:20
Willam Karlsson 17:21
Nicolas Roy 15:01
It’s worth noting that 4th line centre Roy scored .50 PPG contributing significantly to the cup win.
Would the Oilers have been better off upgrading 3C rather than pursuing Connor Brown as a top 6 winger?
Why do people think there is only one way to win?
The more concerning issue was Drai getting scorched 5v5 versus Vegas.
Take a look at previous Stanley Cup winner Centres especially 3rd line. The saying goes you win down the middle come Playoff time.
Yes it was an issue for sure which pretty much reinforces my point.
If a team can outscore one of the McDavid/Draisaitl lines, and then turn to William Karlsson and Nicolas Roy led lines, they’re in great shape.
Both McDavid and Draisaitl played more than 23 minutes per game which is far from ideal.
Considering the results in the series and the previous one against Colorado when the Avalanche were deep at centre, it might have been wise to invest in a more robust third line and move McLeod to 4C.
LT has argued today that McLeod is too good for 4C but he is certainly not better than Nicolas Roy and that would be a nice problem to have any way.
Nicholas Roy is currently 26 years old.
Ryan McLeod is currently 23 years old.
Are you postulating that at a similar point in their respective development curves that Roy is ahead of McLeod?
Or that today, Roy is a better 3C than the Highlander?
Asking in earnest, because I don’t want to misconstrue your point.
The future is now.
It’s inconsequential what McLeod will be in 3 years and let’s bear in mind that Roy plays 4C not 3C.
William Karlsson is a pretty good 3C….53 points in a down year.
I argued for
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nuge
McLeod
last summer and was told that Nuge wouldn’t get enough TOI.
It isn’t that the Oilers don’t have depth at centre. It is that they don’t have enough talent on the wings.
I am old enough to remember when it was common knowledge around here that guys who play wing were the easiest pieces to find but I am still waiting to see that play out for the Oilers although cap considerations due to roster construction is definitely a major part of the problem.
Your way would certainly better although not ideal since Nuge is poor at faceoffs. 44% in the playoffs while Karlsson was 54%.
As for TOI, constructing a third line that is trusted and cutting back the insane minutes of the top 6 would go a long way to solve that issue.
It’s a real puzzle that a team that drafted so high for so long has to shop the free agent market for wingers and tends to send them away when they draft and develop them.
Yamamoto could have been a very good third line player but once again he was miscast and his contract was mishandled making him too expensive.
There was a level of incompetence surrounding the management of this team for so long it was difficult to watch.
I don’t blame Holland like some because I am pretty certain he was given a short time line to get things back on track and that meant decisions that were less than optimal.
Somebody help me believe in faceoffs. I’m as frustrated as anyone when we lose faceoff after faceoff, but I can’t get past the fact that a strong faceoff percentage (.54) is going to be only a difference of 2 more wins in a game over a poor faceoff percentage (.44).
Someone point out to me the reason it makes a huge difference.
I remember an article years ago by David Staples that pointed out faceoffs were not a strong indicator of success (GF/GA). I’ve looked a dozen times or more, but can’t find it.
I think winning face offs helps, but probably less than we’d assume.
I’d like to see the data on goals directly coming from a faceoff win. As HH points out below, it makes sense that a faceoff on a pp/pk is very meaningful as control in the zone with the man advantage is dangerous.
I would agree with defmn that selective moments probably stick in our minds.
I understand each faceoff represents an opportunity but my original point was what is the real difference between a good faceoff taker and a poor one? Each one is pretty close to a coin flip.
Close games are often won or lost on plays that appear to be coin flips,
Chicago was 6th overall in faceoff win % last season.
Colorado was 28th.
Seattle 31st.
Faceoffs are the poster child for selective memory of specific events when a goal results from it. More so than a dman getting turnstiled even.
That said you want to have a guy on the team you can send out in the last minute with a one goal lead without doubt.
They are most valuable when killing penalties since a win effectively cuts down the time defending by about 30 seconds.
Now that power plays always start in the offensive zone, winning that draw takes on greater significance.
Dellow (I think) had a good post years ago on the advantage of winning a faceoff. IIRC, the advantage was gone after about 9 seconds. (Maybe that was at even strength?)
My memory fails me, but it’d be nice to have some solid analytics on this.
I think it was even strength and six seconds, but I bet it’s actually 10 seconds at 10 paces. 🙂 It was a fine piece of work though.
It’s not huge…but every little bit counts especially when killing penalties.
Most faceoffs don’t matter. A few faceoffs do matter. It is a fat tail distribution. On average, faceoffs don’t matter, but the tail events are more frequent than in a normal distribution.
Context doesn’t hang around here as much as it used to
Faceoffs are possession which is good. I think it matters most when you lose them as opposed to a few more
Why does Edmonton have such a difficult time beating the Kings it’s one name? Danault! Even Maggie the Monkey can figure this out.
Many here mock the Kings trade for PLD but they are ignoring the knock on effect it will have an Danault’s deployment.
The Kings will now be able to play a 2A/2B line set up.
Kopitar and Danault will still play the toughs while PLD, Fiala and Arvidsson go to work on the dregs.
Are you talking about the Kings team that the Oilers were 3-1 against in 2021/22 and beat in a playoff series and were 2-2 against in 2022/23 and beat in the playoffs?
If it wasn’t for Campbell saving Skinner and the teams bacon we lose that series. Does Jack get rewarded “Not” Campbell was and is around these parts the new whipping boy. I know Campbell would of carried us past Vegas when he’s hot the man can stand on his head. Woody didn’t read it right and that’s that.
Another example of posting randomness that has nothing to do with the conversation re: Danault being the reason the Oilers can’t beat the Kings (proven false).
Campbell saved the Series if you don’t see it fine. If you don’t think Danault gave the heavily favourite Oilers fits fine. You can’t have it both ways. Vegas is a way better team than Edmonton because they won in 6. The Av’s own the Oilers because they won in 4. This is Fact end of discussion!
I don’t understand what points you are trying to make.
You are all over the place.
I have no idea what Jack Campbell coming in relief has to do with a position that the Oilers can’t beat the Kings due to Philip Danault which is objectively, and factually, false.
It was more Yamamoto getting scorched. They kept giving Draisaitl a boat anchor.
Yamamoto was a boat anchor for Drai?
In 59 minutes without Yamo, Drai was on the ice for 2 goals scored.
In 33 minutes with Yamo, Drai was on the ice for 2 goals scored.
They leaked GA when together but, as far as offence, Yamo didn’t boat anchor Drai against Vegas.
If Yamo was so good why is he hone. Fact.
Yamo wasn’t so good but the numbers show that Yamo was not anchoring Drai’s offence against Vegas.
I appreciate your strawman argument though.
Yamo is gone because he couldn’t do the job. Fact! Woody knew it yet he kept playing Yamo against a heavy Vegas team that made Yamo look like a child. He’s one of the reasons we lost hence the the free bus ticket to Seattle.
Again, that response has nothing to do with the point that Godot and I were discussing.
H.H nailed it he was miscast from the very beginning. Yamo should be giving Leon 4 million dollars for the 2 years he carried him on his back.
Nothing to do with the conversation – just random statements.
Never seen someone so in love with a below average 2nd line player. Woody should of recognized this quicker. If you want to win you can’t be pals with everyone. Maybe he’ll break the 10 Goal mark now that he’s playing in his hometown area home cooked meals and all.
He was injured, he was ineffective due to injury. He’s fine when healthy but staying healthy appears to be a problem that is increasing. I can’t believe you two, this is an ongoing battle and it’s clear both of you are too stubborn to give in. I get it, stubborn is part of my DNA, too.
However, this has to be the 20th time you two have engaged on his and it is (respectively) a little monotonous. Surely for both of you as well.
Please move on. Thanks.
I wasn’t even having this conversation. I simply make a post in response to Godot opining that Yamamoto was a boat anchor for Drai against Vegas and I showed the Oilers GF rates for Drai with and without Yamo in the series.
That is all. Reja chimed in with post after post about Yamo being terrible – I did not engage in that conversation.
This is not me – this is Reja making starwman argument and bringing his opinion on Yamo in to things.
I’m asking everyone to move on. I’m not interested in who is to blame. You were all at the scene of the crime when I saw it.
Yes Sir.
I’m not trying to be different I love talking Oiler hockey. There’s was nothing more entertaining than listening to John Short cooler demeanour while callers phoned in screaming for Messier head or Fuhr’s a bum, Coffey is not a really D was always a debate early on. If Yamamoto was ineffective all year because of injury why wasn’t at least Lavoie not given a opportunity after Christmas or someone else moved up the line-up.
Yamamoto was hurt, he missed two long stretches of games and didn’t look right in many games he played. That isn’t really open for debate, but rather it is fact.
As for Lavoie, one imagines the Oilers felt a rookie in the lineup would be counterproductive. He isn’t a two-way type like Puljujarvi or Yamamoto, or at least he isn’t that we know.
If Bourgault had Lavoie’s experience, I think he would have received a call.
Brown counts 800k against the cap this season.
Which center do you think the Oilers could have acquired that would be an upgrade for 800k?
Yeah……Exactly.
Decisions were made to keep Foegele and Kulak. I like both players but back in June they probably could have been traded for value freeing up cap space to go shopping later on.
It is a strategy that would have involved risk without doubt but it was available and this was an off season where I think it would have worked and I was not the only one suggesting it at that time.
At some point, you have to trust your system.
Replacing Kulak with Broberg at 3LD doesn’t seem like an inordinate risk to me and you can always find a vet on a 1 year cheap contract to provide cover.
I must of tired out the Holland groupies yesterday as there’s no push back today.
Don’t be so hard on yourself. That’s the beauty of living in a free society your allowed to have a opinion.
You must be related to HH. I swear when you talk I see his lips move…. please talk less, learn more.
Hey Darryl say hi to your brother Darryl for me.
It would have been a poor decision to trade Kulak when one has not tried replacing Ceci with Broberg. The weak link is Ceci, not Kulak. One has to move Ceci down the roster to improve the defense.
You need to move Kulak in order to free cap. $2.75 is too much for a 3LD on a cash strapped team. Ceci would be hard to replace without more money to spend on that position. You’ve got the order that needs to be followed wrong.
Agree that moving Kulak made/makes sense, both because of his salary as 3LD and because moving him would open an uncontested lineup spot for Broberg to play.
Also, vaguely related to Kulak/Ceci/Oilers/Cups, the top 4 D on Holland’s Cup winning teams were:
1998
Lidstrom(28)-Murphy(37)
Macouin(37)-Rouse(33)
-Macouin and Dimitri Mironov were acquired at the trade deadline to shore up the D though Mironov got injured and played only 7 playoff games (he played more minutes/game in those games than both Macouin and Rouse though)
2002
Lidstrom(32)-Chelios(40)
Fischer(21)-Olausson(36)
-Uwe Krupp (36) was brought back from Europe (as was Olausson) but couldn’t stay healthy. He actually played top 4 minutes/game in the few regular season and playoff games he played though.
2008
Lidstrom(38)-Rafalski(34)
Stuart(29)-Kronwall(27)
-Stuart also acquired at the deadline.
A surprisingly patchwork crew, I would say.
If only it were that simple.
The Oilers could have traded Kulak, replaced him with Broberg and not signed Brown.
$3.5 million right there.
I recall reading an article last year that said at least some in Oilers management believed Broberg would be as good as Chychryn by year end so they shouldn’t trade assets for Chychryn.
Setting aside whether that was warranted or not, with the cap crunch the Oilers are in, I would think they would believe Broberg could effectively replace Kulak – unless they soured on him greatly?
If they don’t believe he can play third pairing D at this point they should have traded him.
I think the Oilers management know that more than 6 d-man are needed through 100 plus games.
Kulak is not the D that has to be replaced. Ceci is.
This is correct.
$3.5 buys you an elite 3rd line center huh?
Put down the bong.
No one except you mentioned elite.
The Canucks just signed Pius Suter AND Teddy Blueger for a combined $3.5 million.
Worth noting:
Pius Suter 14:04 TOI/G
Ryan McLeod 14:11
Pius Suter is not a good player.
This will be the same outcome as your Rafferty vs Bouchard comparison.
Funny stuff coming from a Canuck homer as per usual.
Today I was reminded that aging curves don’t apply to the likes of Anze Kopitar who will just face tough minutes year after year after year – they only apply to Oilers’ players.
I was also advised that Pius Sutter and Teddy Bluger are more than 4th line players.
Yes, it’s amazing isn’t it? Always the same BS. Now we have two of them fighting it out for the most inane post.
False narratives, goal posts that move like a Golden Snitch, non sequitur posts.
It is axiomatic that HAD Pius Super signed with the Oilers he would have been scoffed at by one and railed against by the other of the “Twins of Dufustown”.
Likely with horrendous grammar and littered with inappropriate/missed contractions and odious spelling but hey…
First off I’m a Oiler fan since day one the way you always whine your definitely from a younger generation. I don’t talk Oiler smack to other fan bases but when talking to fellow Oiler fans not everyone believes Holland is a God. He has made mistakes along the way. Answer me one question Professor has Holland won a cup in Edmonton? Why not??
Give me your lines. Kane-McDavid-Hyman; Nuge-Draisaitl-Brown; Foegele-McLeod-Ryan; Janmark-Holloway-Gagner/Lavoie/Pederson/Caggiula.
==================
So many different ways to run these players and I am pretty sure that every possible combination has been posted at some point during the course of the summer.
My one wish for TC is that we see some low probability/high potential sets.
By this I mean seeing McLeod, Holloway, Lavoie and even Bourgault – the younger guys – get a legitimate chance to show what they can do as the third wheel with two of the pencilled in top six guys.
For me it is important for the team and coaching staff to take the opportunity of a training camp where we expect few or no surprises to try and generate some surprises. It keeps things fresh, adds an iota of urgency for the veterans and gives peeks into future possibilities.
I want to see a TC that showcases how much imagination this coaching staff has now that it has had control for a season and a half.
Oh my, Kane and Hyman together as a winger duo – its only 125 minutes but the numbers meet the eye test and its bad, very bad:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-10-12&td=2023-04-14&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8475169&p2=8475786&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
For me, I have three pairs I want to see (and one non-due, that is no Kane/Hyman):
McDavid/Hyman
Drai/Brown
McLeod/Foegele
That’s injury aided, and the 2021-22 sample is way too small.
That sample was over the two seasons aggregated – it also meets the eye test, at least mine.
I love watching Nuge and Hyman together on the wing. I’d run Draisaitl between them, and have McDavid center Kane and Brown.
I’ve been posting that I have alot of time for Holloway at center as he has real center pedigree (his pop season at Wisconsin was as a full time center and he played a bit there in the AHL) but my concern is the minutes.
I don’t see Woody committing to playing his 4th line 12 plus minutes per night (or even 9-10 plus minutes per night. I can hope that Woody is able to resist the urge to shorten his bench and take players out of the game very early and very often but, given his history, I’m not confidant it happens.
With that said, LT brings up a good point – even if Holloway is on the 4th line and Woody takes the bottom of his roster out, he can still move Holloway up and keep him as part of the rotation.
I don’t disagree with this but part of me thinks the best thing for Holloway is to settle in to a position/role and just play games, night after night, and develop. I mean McLeod/Foegele has shown to be a great duo – I have alot of time for putting Holloway on the left wing of that line and just rolling them out.
I like him playing with some decent skill on that 3rd line as well – no offence to the likes of Ryan and Janmark on a 4th line.
My guess is things click for Holloway this season, similar to how things did in McLeod’s second full time season. A similar trajectory wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Why not Lavoie on the third line? If he earns it, music!
95% of these guys, given the right circumstances can contribute to a winning team.
IMO the idea of “earning it” is outdated. Today’s NHL player has been earning it since they were selected for the U12 travelling team. What followed was single sport athletes that had 6 times a week ice time, strength, skating, nutrition, psychologists, massage, support AND full time hockey coaches AND the best players to practise and play with on a daily basis. Family commitments, school grades and anything else that interfered with hockey was eliminated so they remained on the youth hockey team of choice. This gives them a 1% chance at the NHL. Earning it starts at 12 years old, not when the Oilers draft the kid.
The coaches job is to get 5 guys on the ice that will out perform the other 5 guys about 75 times each game. Those 5 guys don’t have earn it, they have to win the next 45 seconds.
This is a excellent point it’s all about opportunity for at least a 1/3 of the league. Some fringe players are given 2-3 chances in the bigs while others just as good are washed out of the league. When it comes to Lavoie something just isn’t right in Denmark. I’ll be pissed if we lose Lavoie without ever given a honest chance because of something other than player performance.
Isn’t convincing management and the coaches you’re one of the 5 guys who’s most likely to out-perform equivalently to ‘earning it’?
Yes.
once the coach selects his 20 players for a night he needs to win 75 ish shifts.
I am not convinced what happened four shifts ago has much barring on the next shift.
Over playing your top night 9 each is probably a good strategy for the first 20 games of the year.
I’m having a hard time seeing how this comment is related to either of our previous comments.
Why wasn’t Lavoie brought up and giving a cup of Coffee last year. Who knows he could of caught lightning in a bottle as we all know he’s streaky going all the way back to his Junior days. It’s not like that little guy who’s long gone was doing anything constructive on the 2nd line.
Lavoie didn’t start playing well enough to put himself in the conversation until January, essentially.
By the time he had like even 6 weeks of play that would warrant a call-up, the Oilers were rolling and in a fight for the division title.
The Oilers were fighting for points in division/conference title chase, not in the business of waiving NHL players to give a “cup of coffee” to a player who was just finally starting to figure things out in the AHL.
If the team is rolling, it makes it easy to call someone up. It is more difficult when the team is struggling.
The OIlers might have pissed away a cup because they did not bother to check whether Lavoie could contribute more than Yamamoto, which would not have been hard to do last year.
That must be part of why Sutter chose Edmonton, because of the opportunity at 4c. Then of course playing for a contender and winning at cup after a couple seasons off from hockey. Don’t underestimate this guy,guy’s.
I would suggest that expecting a 34 year old (who is closer to 35 when the season starts) who has struggled with a debilitating illness as well as injuries over past 5+ years, hasn’t played a full season in 7 years and has played an NHL game since May 1, 2021 will be very challenged to earn an NHL job.
Several actual once elite players have not fared well in more favourable circumstances at similar ages. For Sutter it will be a very steep hill to climb, but he is an experienced NHL player and he is a Sutter so he has a chance, albeit a slim one.
For more info on the player from a few years ago, and a more recent interview with him regarding his battle with long-Covid:
https://canucksarmy.com/news/amp/canucks-army-player-profiles-brandon-sutter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUKkealfhXw
If he makes, it would be amazing for the player, fans and team, but I am putting the likelihood of it happening at 5%.
I hope he proves me wrong.
Sorry, unable to edit my errors (I missed a “not” & and an “it”), a red warning box said something like I was “posting too quickly” and did not allow me to save my edits.
Same for me. Anyone have any ideas the fix?
Read what you wrote before posting? 😎
Sorry, not personal, I have had the same thing happen to me.
It was just too good a straight line to resist.
I try try to review, but am rushed because when I post I am often looking at additional information and a post will often take me 10+ minutes to complete.
I know that after a period of time everything gets lost if you don’t save your post in a timely manner (not sure if it’s 10, 15 or 20 minutes or more).
I have been able now to adjust for that time, but not for my ADHD….
Just meant as a joke. I think we have all had the same thing happen to us.
I just couldn’t resist the punch line given that Reja set it up on a T.
T’was funny!
T-ball player, eh? 😀😀
Swing away l laugh at it myself all the time but I can’t edit and I’m on a I-phone. You know as well as I one day your reading the content on products at the grocery store the next week you can’t make it out it’s just a blur. It sucks getting old. I still want 3 Cups with the window will have, that is if Holland can convince Leon and Connor to stay.
Sutter is the perfect fit for what the Oilers need at 4C. A big, right shot center that is a high end PK and faceoff guy and has shown the ability to produce in this league.
Of course, that guy likely no longer exists – he didn’t really exist two years ago at the age of 32 prior to two years without hockey dealing with health issues.
The fourth line angst is over-stated. It’s an issue the Oilers can make disappear in one shift. If you move Holloway to 2LW – then RNH can move to the middle at 3C – and McLeod becomes a 4C. Voila……..best and deepest center depth in the NHL.
Not only this, but we all know Woody likely runs 11-7 often throughout the season as well, making obsolete anyway.
Edit to add: Making 4C obsolete.
McLeod is too good for fourth line, he needs to play more than an Oilers fourth liner will.
If that is true (which it probably is) then who cares about the 4th line?
The Oilers run their top lines more than teams like Vegas. If they continue to do so the 4th line is not really any issue because of limited ice time. If the Oilers expand the role of the 4th line then it is fine if McLeod plays there and has his ice time supplemented with special teams.
How about if the Oilers expand the role of the fourth line with MacLeod contributing in the top nine,where he belongs.
I wonder, would McLeod running both the third and 4th lines in 11-7 be a solution. That would give him 18 min a night maybe and keep line 1 and 2 to 20 min apiece.
1) Holloway hasn’t proven to be ready for 2LW and failed 3-4 times last season when moved up. I think he has a good shot to get there but its far from a lock.
2) I think Nuge is more valuable as a winger in than op 6 than as a 3C.
3) I don’t think there are enough minutes for McLeod as 3C – I think he could pop as a 2-way 3C this season with increased deployment against tough comp.
Other than that, I’m in…..
And of course LAK have no fourth line because as we have been told they have THREE SECOND lines!