As summer rolls along, and we slowly succumb to mosquitoes, it’s probably time to talk about the prospects, NHL equivalencies and what may come. It’s a very strange world we live in, Master Jack. There are no No. 1 overalls, no top 10 overalls, hell, among minor leaguers this year Xavier Bourgault (No. 22 overall in 2021) is the only first rounder. These are different times. Who should we be paying attention to this fall and winter? Math calls the roll.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
OILERS PROSPECTS 2022-23 STATS AND NHLE
MATVEY PETROV (38.9)
Petrov’s two OHL seasons saw him deliver 93 and 95 points respectively. He was a goal scorer in year one (40) and a playmaker (66 assists) in year two. That’s going to be difficult to project into the AHL. Also factoring in to his potential offense as a rookie is the slow playing of prospects under coach Colin Chaulk. I suspect Petrov will get a push, but it’s possible he doesn’t see a feature role as a rookie. I see him scoring 15-15-30 with the Condors this coming season.
MAXIM BEREZKIN (33.0)
Berezkin turns 22 in October and has already delivered a solid KHL season. If we’re honest, the Oilers prospect pool would be far more interesting if Berezkin was in North America. The KHL season starts in just a few weeks, and he scored 7-19-26 in 52 KHL games. Playing time will be key, could he pass 35 points this coming season? It’ll be a damn shame if he doesn’t come over.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE (29.2)
There’s something Oilers about the plight of young Lavoie. He has been building toward being NHL-ready for the last two seasons, improving (when healthy) in leaps and bounds after Christmas in both seasons. He arrives in the NHL (waiver eligible this fall) about $100,000 too dear in a tight cap situation. The question Ken Holland has to answer: Is Lavoie, and his future, valuable enough to sacrifice (possibly) two roster spots? The answer is no. Lavoie’s future with the Oilers could depend on Evan Bouchard’s cap hit. I think he’s NHL-ready and should have success eventually. I think he could score 20+ goals in an NHL season, or he could spend his career in Europe. He’s at the “Teemu Hartikainen couldn’t hit the ocean” in 2012-13. Hartikainen spent nine highly productive seasons in the KHL and another in the Swiss league. He had NHL ability. So does Lavoie. If he does land in Bakersfield again, I think he could approach .5 goals per game.
CAM DINEEN (27.5)
If you’re discounting Cam Dineen’s future on an NHL roster with Edmonton, I get it. However, it would be unfair to overlook a strong offensive season from a defenseman who is now age 25. However, Jordan Oesterle and Brad Hunt found the NHL after playing for the Oilers AHL team and Dineen has real ability. He had a 49 percent goal share at even strength, about the same as the off ice success of the two teams he played for in 2022-23. I know the eye test screams chaos, I saw it, too. Don’t discount him. He has offensive ability. He could hit 50 points with Bakersfield, and that could lead the team.
CARL BERGLUND (24.2)
He is 6.02, 195 and has two-way ability. He led UMass-Lowell in points one year ago. His offensive numbers imply he’ll be a checking center in pro and at 23 he needs to have an impact right away. I saw his six games in the AHL, he didn’t touch the puck much and all estimates have him well under 10 minutes. He could see ECHL minutes and I think a low estimate (say 10 points) for AHL output is reasonable. Edmonton needs centers who can jump their pedigree. Berglund is one, but at the lower end.
JAMES HAMBLIN (21.9)
Hamblin is on the recall list but I don’t think his offense (as indicated by his NHLE) is going to get it done. He’s an older prospect (24 now) and the men who emerge from the AHL are more substantial offensively and younger when they spike (Ryan McLeod, age 21, point-per-game in 2020-21). I think he’s fast enough to play center in the NHL (he’s more quick than fast) but size and skill are a little shy. He probably plays in the AHL this season, 20 goals and 40 points would be reasonable expectations.
XAVIER BOURGAULT (20.9)
He was shy offensively in his rookie AHL season, but everything else about his game impressed. Strong on the PK, turning over pucks, he’s quick and aggressive. I expect he’ll hit 20 goals and 45 points, and there’s a chance Bourgault gets an NHL cup of coffee. On the other hand, with a new GM likely next season, he’ll soon be on the ‘brothers become cousins’ path to being a hockey orphan. A big season ahead.
JAKE CHIASSON (20.5)
He showed disappointing offense after his draft, and hopes that he would be a strong two-way type have died a little. I think he’s going to be from the Tyler Tullio tree except less offense. Ironic since the NHLE suggests the opposite. If he gets 15 points in the AHL this season, that would be a reasonable total based on projected role.
SHANE LACHANCE (19.5)
I’ve downplayed this prospect because he’s been an older player dominating a teenage league. He turns 20 at the end of August and will play in the NCAA (Boston University). Freshman often play sparingly but Lachance is a goal scorer. If he can score 10 goals this season that would be impressive.
TYLER TULLIO (16.7)
I think he’s underrated by this number and am prepared to predict he’ll emerge as a far more substantial prospect in the year to come. I suspect he will push for 35 points without power-play time. I’m convinced he will play in the NHL.
CARTER SAVOIE (10)
Of all the players on this list, Savoie is the most likely to smoke last season’s results. His eight goals in 44 games was poor, but God only knows how many he was close to 100 percent. If healthy, my bet is he’ll clear 20 goals with the Condors.
DREW BREES
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- Drew Brees autographed replica Riddell full size helmet w/glass display case.
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It’s all about skating peeps
Can’t skate No good
Good plus excellent, better
Why is CMD historical? Not because of his finishing
Mike Gartner could skate like the wind and finish as well. He is the 8th all-time scorer with 708 Goals in 1432 games. Very underrated in fact this is the first time I’ve seen his name on this blog. He retired 25 years ago so a lot folks in these parts were to young to enjoy the explosiveness he had on breakaways and busting down the wing. He wasn’t a chicken liver he went straight to the net balls to the wall.
No question skating is hugely important, and largely agree on McDavid.
‘Skating’ was not what made Gretzky and Lemieux historical though, nor many others.
McDavid is so good because he can handle the puck with speed. There are others that can match him on pure speed but no one can stick handle and carry the puck in that top gear.
It’s all about skill.
It’s also about having complementary pieces that can play with skill and don’t come at a high cost. Pittsburgh always slapped a college man on Crosby’s line. Some were a little slower boats, but all were more mature and could think the game.
Peter Klima memorialized by his countrymen.
https://detroithockeynow.com/2023/08/20/current-and-former-czech-nhlers-gather-celebrate-memory-of-former-red-wings-star-klima/
Borg = probably a useful middle 6 player
Lavoie = probably Brad Isbister upside but small possibility of more
Petrov = wildcard who could be top 6 quality or a complete bust
Berezkin = who knows but likely bust (why do the Oilers bother draft KHL when they are so bad at it)
Tullio = maybe bottom 6 and we will know more after this season
Savoie = Rob Shremp lite
Big year for all of these guys.
I didn’t include Berezkin in my list because I have my doubts he’ll come over.
But, Holland does seem to be better dialled in on the Russians than we’ve seen around here previously. I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to hit on one. If nothing else, those that do develop professionally in North America help raise the level of competition across the board.
I’ve posted a few times over the last few weeks that, while I’m very intrigued by Berezkin’s potential, I have absolutely no idea if we’ll ever see him over here. For all I know, he has no desire to ever leave Russia and come on over but he just as easily could have the ultimate dream of playing in the NHL. We just have no idea and I wonder if the org itself even does?
We’ll know more in the spring (or before if he signs an extension with Yaroslav).
He’s signed with Yaroslavl through 24-25 (ie – this season and next) already, is he not?
Elite prospects lists him as signed through 24-25 at least.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/514147/maxim-beryozkin
Yes, that seems to be the case – I think I must be mixing up his contract with Yeseyev or something.
Tks.
Isbister ended up playing over 500 NHL games – while I would think some would be disapointed in that career result for Lavoie, it would likely represent a win given where we are.
I’ve been saying, Petrov has the highest ceiling of all the current prospects – he could be a legit first line scoring winger or nothing but a tweener.
It seems you’ve opined on Berezkin based non-hockey reasons.
Of note, Petrov was also drafted out of the Russian leagues (the MHL).
Yeah, Isbister would be a pretty great outcome IMO.
Unlike the Lavoie comps I found Isbister actually did have a 20 goal NHL season (just one though, and actually it was at age 22 – so 4 months older than Lavoie was last season).
If a team in win now mode is counting on a bunch of B and C prospects to make a difference “some day” it’s doing it wrong.
Nobody is counting on them to make a difference.
It’s not conclusive obviously, but that look at 10 years of AHL ‘big men’ really narrowed expectations for me.
Over 10 AHL seasons only 11 ‘big men’ (at least 6’3″ and 200lbs) scored similarly to Lavoie (0.64-0.84 points/game) at the same age (plus or minus 6 months of Lavoie this season).
The players and their career boxcars:
19-20
Julien Gauthier – 6’4″ 227 153 14-18-32 in the NHL as of age 25 (Oct. birthday)
Nicolas Roy —– 6’4″ 207 228 40-54-94 in the NHL as of age 26 (Feb. birthday)
18-19
AJ Greer ——— 6’3″ 205 108 7-13-20 in the NHL as of age 26 (Dec. birthday)
17-18 (None)
16-17
JJ Khaira ——— 6’4″ 212 336 33-47-80 in the NHL as of age 28 (Aug. birthday)
Oskar Sundqvist 6’3″ 209 355 53-73-123 in the NHL as of age 29 (Mar. birthday)
Zach Sanford — 6’4″ 207 305 49-49-98 in the NHL as of age 28 (Nov. birthday)
15-16
Brett Richie —– 6’4″ 220 391 50-35-85 in the NHL as of age 30 (July birthday)
14-15 (None)
13-14
Carl Klingberg — 6’3″ 216 12 1-0-1 in the NHL as of age 32 (Jan. birthday)
12-13
Thomas Vincour 6’3″ 220 95 7-10-17 in the NHL as of age 32 (Nov. birthday)
Joe Colborne — 6’5″ 220 295 42-72-114 in the NHL as of age 33 (Jan. birthday)
11-12
Eric Tangradi — 6’4″ 227 150 5-11-16 in the NHL as of age 34 (Feb. birthday)
Jimmy Hayes — 6’5″ 216 334 54-55-99 in the NHL as of age 33 (Nov. birthday)
10-11 (None)
The majority of the 11 played 3+ seasons of NHL games, but they were almost exclusively 3rd and 4th line players. Not one of them ever had a 20 goal season (though a couple got to 19 in a year). So I don’t think that Eurpoe is likley (at least not for another 4 or 5 years), but 20 goals isn’t at all likely either.
Wonder if Oilers are interested in Jason Dickson. Would require a trade.
Cap hit is $2.7 million.
Thats a pretty pricey 4C
Remember when he was going to be an elite 3C for the Canucks? Ah, those were the days.
You are right that his $2.65M is probably too pricey for the Oilers, even at 50% retained.
Just another Benning miscalculation.
His pro scouting was horrific,
Well I’m not sure Benning ever called him that, but yes it was a poor signing.
New for The Athletic: 9 bold predictions for the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers
https://theathletic.com/4789173/2023/08/20/edmonton-oilers-2023-24-bold-predictions/
Bull-ish predictions LT!
Let’s hope McD n Co finally gore this league. Charge straight on through.
Curious how you rank the teams in the Pacific?
I think goaltending is the big question mark in the pacific. Vegas, Edmonton and LA are the class of the division (in that order based on last season and playoffs results) but all have question marks in net.
And Seattle does as well.
Calgary and Vancouver have goalies that were considered very good (Markstrom and Demko), but are coming off poor seasons. Do they bounce back? Will Wolf be able to step directly in to being an above average NHL goalie?
A lot will come down to which team has a goalie who steps up.
Anahiem and San Jose are bad.
Think you nailed it.
The Pacific goalies as a group are very underwhelming although Demko was very good after returning from his injury and Silovs has enormous potential.
Any one of Edmonton, Calgary, Seattle or Vegas could easily see their seasons go sideways with crappy goaltending and none really has any easy replacements if Calgary trades Vladar as has been speculated with Wolf being a major wildcard.
Right now?
Edmonton
Vegas
Seattle
Los Angeles
Calgary
Vancouver
Anaheim
San Jose
Your no fun. That is the order I would put them in. Four rounds of playoffs makes me think Vegas might be a little slow out of the gate.
The cup celebrations are still going on.
Vegas has a grassroots fan base even with the Raiders in town. Met a lot of fun and knowledgeable folks. As soon as they see the Oiler hat and Dave Dryden jersey they wanna know more about the greatest team ever assembled by the master architect Glen Sather.
Petrov and Wanner are the two rookie pros I look forward to seeing the most. I agree, its tough to get a sense of what type of deployment we’ll see for Petrov this coming season. Chaulk is creating a history of making the rookie pros earn their way up the lineup (but for Bourgault) and Petrov likely follows suit but I could see him forcing his way up early.
I really hope that in a year’s time we are discussing Berezkin’s likely place on the team – I will be following his season with great interest as his KHL deal is up in May.
That extra $100K shouldn’t be a factor. Unless Bouchard comes in over $4MM, which is not likely, there is room for Lavoie as the 12th forward. Its up to him and his performance leading up to opening night. Holland did say early this off-season that Lavoie will play many exhibition games.
Hamblin is a guy I put in a group with Malone and Caggiula. Guys that can get called up if injuries pile up and provide some OK depth minutes but will not really make a positive impact and, at the end of the day, as a contending team, we hope they don’t see the NHL ice.
The hope, or at least my hope, is that Bourgault and maybe even Tulio put themselves in the conversation for that call-up over the veteran tweeners that don’t have a real future in the org.
Tulio is my dark-horse – he was soooo good in a couple of heaters last season and, if he’s gained some real strength, he could pop. Brendan Gallagher type player.
Prospects I view as having the best chance to emerge or challenge (in no order):
I think Bourgault is a lock to be an every day NHL player – the question is when and what the ceiling might be.
I hope Lavoie never plays another AHL game again but I really have no idea which way his career goes from here. He definitely has the ability to make it – its on him.
Savoie needs to be healthy this season and, if he does, he needs to pop. He could go the Tyler Benson route if he doesn’t (although his shot is indeed elite and Benson never had an elite skill).
Tulio – This player will be a fan favorite in Edmonton within 18 months!
I thought Benson was a pretty darn good playmaker/passer. But it wasnt enough. The cement boots kept him down.
He was a good playmaker, I agree, but he never had an elite skill, something that could be truly high end at the NHL level. Savoie’s shot and ability to get shots off could be high end at the NHL level – if he can find the space within the pace of the NHL game, etc.